2026-08-08 美伊冲突：海峡框架成形，执行障碍仍在

数据时间：2026-08-08 16:27 Asia/Shanghai；市场报价为8月8日最后可用值，美国债务至8月6日、收益率曲线与就业市场反应至8月7日
研究对象：美伊冲突、霍尔木兹海峡、美国就业、长期利率与跨资产传导
报告类型：宏观事件更新
资料来源：U.S. Treasury FiscalData与收益率曲线、BLS公开API、Federal Reserve Board、CENTCOM、伊朗与阿曼公开口径、Kpler、ADNOC、Jin10 MCP、Associated Press、Reuters及任务级文章归档

一页结论

伊朗与阿曼已经形成霍尔木兹通航框架，美国官员把解除封锁与“正式公布并履行无阻碍商业通航”绑定。框架仍等待伊朗最高国家安全委员会批准，收费、敌对方排除、制裁支付、保险条款和实施日期都没有闭合。ER原5%“可执行临时安排”从未兑现转为部分兑现，概率不变。
商业状态仍弱。Kpler称截至8月7日当周仅6艘油轮通过，ADNOC称冲突以来15艘集团船舶遇袭。协议框架、物理航道和可保险履约是三个不同状态；后两者没有随谈判同步恢复。
7月非农减少2.3万人，5月与6月合计下修10.3万人，服务业就业分项也收缩，进一步削弱加息必要性。失业率4.1%伴随参与率降至61.4%，初请仍低，ISM投入价格仍高。ER全年70%按兵不动、20%降息25bp、10%其他继续锁定。
长期金融条件仍紧：8月7日10年、20年、30年期美国国债收益率分别为4.65%、5.20%、5.19%。科技公司债供给会增加信用与久期资产供给，但现有证据不能把国债收益率归因于Alphabet、Microsoft或某一笔发行。
美国财政部8月6日总债务为39.890263万亿美元，接近而尚未跨过40万亿美元。没有证据支持“美国近期产业数据是编造的”；负非农与历史修订应按统计初值和修订机制处理。
8月8日黄金上涨2.37%、白银上涨3.26%，标普500同时上涨0.62%，Brent跌至81.50美元、WTI跌至76.35美元。贵金属反弹得到价格确认，最近一个月的边际资金来源还缺基金流和持仓证据，不能只归因于科技股下跌或避险需求。
Kimi、DeepSeek等低价和开放模型已形成竞争压力，但DeepSeek也出现提价计划，美国AI资本开支和服务器需求仍强。竞争可以压缩模型定价与科技估值，尚不足以直接证明美元信用下降。

当前状态

维度	截至8月8日的状态	尚缺什么	下一验证点
谈判	伊朗—阿曼双向管理框架成形，美国以实际履约作为解除封锁条件	联合最终文本、伊朗最高国安会批准、实施日期	美伊阿曼是否发布同一版本条款
商业通航	单周油轮通过量仍低，船舶遇袭继续累积	保险承保、制裁豁免、收款方、连续船流与到港记录	连续三日VLCC/LNG船流和战争险报价
军事	美国再次暂停计划中的打击；媒体称弹药库存是约束，白宫否认	正式作战命令、库存数据、伊朗反击与独立战损	CENTCOM公开行动与交战方可核验损失
美联储	负非农与下修扩大转鸽空间，低初请和高投入价格构成反证	7月CPI、工资、核心服务和长期通胀预期	8月12日CPI与Jackson Hole
长期利率	30年期5.19%，政策不加息也不等于金融条件宽松	期限溢价、财政供给、公司债供给与海外需求拆分	招标、期限溢价、信用利差与资金流
跨资产	贵金属、美股和美债同向受益于弱就业，原油随协议预期回落	ETF/CTA/期货持仓和基金流	贵金属持仓、实际利率与美元是否持续同向

8月1日至8日新增事实

时间	新事实	证据边界	研究含义
8月8日14:45	媒体称美军参联会主席评估退出路径，并担忧武器库存	匿名消息，不是正式政策	军事持续时间开始受弹药与可实现目标约束，但尚未确认撤出
8月8日03:38	伊朗议会人士称伊朗与阿曼已形成广泛通航框架	伊朗单方表态，无共同签署文本	5%临时安排情景部分兑现，商业执行仍未完成
8月8日03:23	美国官员称协议宣布并履行后可解除封锁	带条件的美国单方口径	解除封锁已有可观察条件，不等于已经解除
8月8日01:35	调停方消息称框架等待伊朗最高国安会批准	匿名外交消息	批准成为最近的制度节点
8月7日20:30	美国7月非农-2.3万，预期+8万；失业率4.1%，参与率61.4%	初值会修订，参与率下降影响失业率	加息必要性下降，立即降息仍需更多证据
8月7日15:37	Kpler称本周只有6艘油轮通过霍尔木兹	AIS和船型口径可能漏计暗航	物理穿越存在，商业恢复仍弱
8月7日	ADNOC称冲突以来15艘集团船舶遇袭，本周3艘	企业自报，缺完整逐船清单	50%船舶或设施受损情景继续有现实证据
8月7日	美国国债2年4.19%、10年4.65%、20年5.20%、30年5.19%	官方日度常数到期收益率，不是个券可执行价	长端利率在政策暂停期仍保持紧缩性
8月6日	美国未偿公共债务39.890263万亿美元	官方最新可得日；尚未越过40万亿	修正“已到40万亿”的表述，保留财政敏感性判断
8月6—7日	临时框架出现无收费与最高20%罚款两套冲突口径	草案、媒体与议会口径尚未统一	收费、制裁和保险是从文本走向履约的断点

展开7月29日至8月1日上一轮增量

日期	已确认变化	当时边界
7月29—30日	伊朗袭击约旦美军基地，美军实施大规模报复；FOMC以9票对3票维持3.50%—3.75%	战果含交战方口径；三名反对者主张加息，不代表多数
7月30—31日	船流曾短暂回升，随后伊朗宣布正常通行暂停；伊朗拒绝上一版阿曼共享管理方案	单日船数受AIS与统计范围影响，谈判没有共同文本
8月1日	美国讨论新一轮打击与能源设施目标，随后又转向暂停并重启协议参数	行动批准状态曾出现相互冲突的匿名报道

更早的逐条事实与来源保留在页尾快讯、文章索引和原文阅读器。

ER观点与概率边界

框架出现改变了情景的兑现状态，没有获得ER授权改变概率。45%持续交火、5%可执行临时安排、50%船舶或能源设施继续受损仍是同一组互斥地缘情景；70%按兵不动、20%降息25bp、10%其他仍是2026年全年政策路径。

2026年政策路径

路径	ER概率	8月8日证据
全年按兵不动	70%	7月FOMC已维持；负非农降低加息必要性，低初请和高投入价格仍支持等待
年内降息25bp	20%	就业转弱和前值下修扩大空间；需要CPI、工资、核心服务和后续就业继续确认
其他	10%	能源二轮通胀、三张加息异议票与长端收益率是鹰派尾部；不作未经确认的内部拆分

地缘情景

情景	ER权重	当前状态
持续交火，封锁仍限于伊朗港口	45%	新一轮打击暂停但军事威慑未解除，谈判与交火仍可反复
调停方形成可执行临时安排	5%	框架已出现，等待批准；共同文本、保险、制裁和实施记录未完成，部分兑现
船舶、LNG或能源设施继续受损	50%	低船流与ADNOC累计船损继续支持，尚未因谈判失效

用户输入的核验结果

输入判断	核验结果	可保留的研究表达
科技公司债推高美债利率	部分支持，因果未识别	大型科技公司债供给增加会影响信用与久期供需；国债长端还受财政供给、期限溢价、通胀和海外需求共同影响
美债规模已到40万亿美元	数字需修正	8月6日为39.890263万亿美元，已经非常接近40万亿
产业数据是为了稳市场而编造	没有证据	7月就业初值显著走弱且历史值下修；按官方初值、修订和交叉指标评估，不作造假归因
Kimi、DeepSeek削弱美元信誉	竞争事实部分成立，信用链条未证实	低价与开放模型会影响美国AI定价、利润率和估值；美元信用需储备份额、结算、资本流和风险溢价证据
科技股下跌催生贵金属反弹	价格方向成立，资金流因果未证实	黄金、白银反弹已确认；弱就业、实际利率、美元、地缘风险和技术仓位可能共同作用
非农转负主要由AI生产率革命造成	属于Rick Rieder的解释，不是官方分解	就业转弱与AI投资并存；需行业就业、工时、产出与生产率数据验证归因

宏观与跨资产验证

证据组	最新事实	对判断的作用
就业	非农-2.3万，前两月合计下修10.3万；失业率4.1%，参与率61.4%	增长与就业需求降温，支持少加息；参与率与低初请限制衰退外推
活动与价格	ISM制造业55.6、价格71.1；服务业54.1、就业47.4、价格70.3	就业降温与投入价格黏性并存，Fed仍需等待
长端利率	10年4.65%、20年5.20%、30年5.19%	不加政策利率也可能维持紧缩金融条件
贵金属与股票	黄金+2.37%、白银+3.26%、SPX+0.62%	弱就业同时推升久期、贵金属与股票估值，不能写成单一风险厌恶
能源	Brent 81.50、WTI 76.35，较8月1日明显回落	协议预期降低价格风险溢价；低船流和保险障碍显示物理风险尚在
AI竞争	中国低价开放模型扩大采用，DeepSeek同时计划提价	定价与估值压力存在，单向降价和美元信用结论都过强

标的	最后可用价	日内区间	涨跌	报价时间
Brent原油（UKOIL）	81.50美元	80.76—83.45	-1.54%	8月8日04:54
WTI原油（USOIL）	76.350美元	75.680—77.868	-1.32%	8月8日04:59
现货黄金（XAUUSD）	4341.11美元	4229.73—4371.77	+2.37%	8月8日04:57
现货白银（XAGUSD）	63.530美元	61.152—65.134	+3.26%	8月8日04:57
标普500指数（SPX）	7757.46	7719.19—7763.08	+0.62%	8月8日08:00
道琼斯工业指数（DJI）	54036.52	—	+0.28%	8月8日08:00

传导路径与长期结构

传导链	当前证据	下一阶段验证
海峡框架 → 航运执行 → 能源价格	文本框架推进，船流与保险仍弱，油价先回落	批准、共同文本、保费、连续船流和实际到港
弱就业 → 美债 → 股票与贵金属	收益率回落，股票和贵金属同涨	CPI、实际利率、美元与基金流是否持续
科技融资 → 信用供给 → 长端金融条件	AI资本开支推动大额融资，30年期收益率仍高	公司债新发、信用利差、国债招标和期限溢价拆分
AI竞争 → 定价 → 科技估值	低价开放模型扩大采用，价格策略开始分化	API实际价格、推理成本、客户留存、利润率与资本开支回报
债务规模 → 财政利息 → 期限溢价	总债务接近40万亿，长端收益率高	利息支出、平均期限、拍卖需求和海外持有变化
海峡武器化 → 替代管线与港口	替代设施资本回报提高，第二咽喉仍有安全暴露	绕行能力利用率、港口扩容、保险与区域安全成本

跟踪清单

时间	观察项	风险上升信号	缓和信号
未来24—72小时	伊朗最高国安会与阿曼协议文本	批准延后、收费与敌对方条款冲突扩大	三方公布一致文本和实施日期
未来一周	船流、保险与封锁解除	新增船损、保费维持高位、封锁继续	连续船流、保险承保和解除封锁同步出现
8月11日	EIA短期能源展望	中东供应和库存路径恶化	供应恢复、库存稳定、价格风险下修
8月12日	美国7月CPI	能源进入核心服务、长期预期上行	核心与工资继续降温
Jackson Hole前后	Fed对负非农和长端利率的反应	多数委员跟随加息异议者	等待成为明确多数，降息条件得到定义
未来一个月	科技融资、AI价格与贵金属资金流	信用利差扩大、AI价格战压缩利润、贵金属持仓继续上升	新发吸收平稳、模型单位经济改善、贵金属流入回落

来源

快讯与原文阅读

正文只保留决策所需事实。以下索引按来源落盘，点击标题可在页内打开中文摘要、证据边界和完整原文。

研报文章

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伊拉克推进两百万桶级西向输油管道

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2026-07-14 · Australian Broadcasting Corporation · 5/5 高

美伊重启封锁与霍尔木兹冲突升级

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美伊互袭升级并冲击霍尔木兹航运

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2026-07-14 · Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 5/5 高

沃什首份国会证词重申抗通胀立场

美联储主席凯文·沃什在07/14的首次国会证词中重申对持续高通胀零容忍，并支持6月把联邦基金利率维持在3.50%至3.75%。他称经济稳健扩张、住房仍弱、劳动力市场大体稳定；截至第一季度的一年内，设备投资增约8%，高科技支出按四季度口径增近25%。美联储将审查沟通、资产负债表、数据、生产率与就业、通胀框架。官方证词证据权威，但未提供下一次政策行动条件、经济预测或工作组时间表。

2026-07-20 · Associated Press · 5/5 高

霍尔木兹冲突推高美国燃油成本

美国与伊朗恢复交火后，07/20美国普通汽油全国均价重返每加仑4美元上方，一周上涨约13美分；布伦特原油由7月初约72美元升至86—91美元，霍尔木兹船舶通行量一周下降50%。标普全球能源预计波斯湾产量最快到2027年第一季度完全恢复。事件直接关系UKOIL、USOIL及美国通胀，但复产期限属于预测，全国均价也掩盖州际差异。

2026-07-21 · Associated Press · 5/5 高

空袭难解霍尔木兹控制僵局

美伊恢复每日打击，伊朗07/21袭击霍尔木兹海峡油轮并迫使船员弃船。美国此前六周打击约1.3万个目标，伊朗仍保有袭船和攻击地区基地的能力；双方释放有限谈判信号，却缺少正式安排。若胡塞武装对沙特的海上禁运扩大至曼德海峡，波斯湾和红海运输可能同时受扰。文章直接关系UKOIL、USOIL，但军事效果数据未细分，部分政策信息来自匿名官员。

2026-07-21 · Associated Press · 5/5 高

美伊战火扩向两大能源航道

美军完成对伊朗连续第11夜打击，霍尔木兹海峡航运仍近乎停滞，胡塞武装又威胁封锁曼德海峡。战前约五分之一全球油气经霍尔木兹运输，国际原油已升破每桶92美元，美国汽油均价达每加仑4美元，直接关系UKOIL与USOIL。美联社尚无法证实胡塞所称6艘船改道，超过500名美军伤员的数字也来自匿名官员；报道采集于美东时间07/21晚间，战况仍可能快速变化。

2026-07-21 · Associated Press · 4/5 中高

伊朗战争成本升至375亿美元

美国防长赫格塞思在07/21参议院听证会上估计，对伊朗战争已耗资375亿美元；共和党正推动950亿美元预算方案。冲突已造成17名美军死亡，自07月初以来超过100人受伤，国防部同时尚有上年度1500亿美元拨款约一半未使用。该报道对军费、财政和能源风险有较强宏观价值，但未列成本明细，950亿美元方案也仍处立法阶段；发布时间为美东时间07/21午后。

2026-07-21 · Associated Press · 5/5 最高优先级

胡塞武装宣布封锁沙特关联船舶使用曼德海峡，并称07/21迫使6艘船改道，但尚无独立确认。该航道承载约12%的全球贸易和四分之一集装箱运输，6月石油通行量已由伊朗战争前约每日400万桶升至逾700万桶；沙特约每日400万桶原油经延布港出口。若霍尔木兹与曼德海峡同时受压，UKOIL和USOIL将面对全球供应、运费及保险费传导风险。报道发布于美东时间 07/21 15:03（UTC+8 07/22 03:03），目前确认的是威胁及运力暴露，尚无实质封锁证据。

2026-07-22 · U.S. Energy Information Administration · 4/5 中高

美国原油累库但库存仍偏低

EIA数据显示，截至07/17的一周，美国商业原油库存增加200万桶至4.117亿桶，仍低于五年均值6%；商业石油总库存增加1160万桶，主要伴随丙烷和丙烯库存增加630万桶。炼厂开工率达96.1%，四周产品需求同比下降1%，但汽油、馏分油和航空燃油需求分别增长1%、2%和9%。数据直接关联UKOIL与USOIL，局限是单周美国统计不能独立代表全球供需。

2026-07-22 · Associated Press · 5/5 高

霍尔木兹争端外溢至亚洲安全

鲁比奥在马尼拉警告，若伊朗控制霍尔木兹海峡、收费并攻击拒付船只，将形成可向其他国际水道扩散的先例。IEA数据显示，2025年经该海峡运输的原油约80%、液化天然气近90%流向亚洲，令东南亚对冲突造成的能源冲击高度敏感。报道直接关联UKOIL与USOIL，但谈判接触、伊朗违约及政策执行主要来自官员表态，缺少协议文本和实际流量损失数据。

2026-07-23 · International Maritime Organization · 4/5 中高

国际海事组织谴责红海袭船

IMO秘书长多明格斯于07/23谴责红海近期国际航运袭击，称其危及船员、航运安全、海洋环境和全球供应链，并要求经营者充分评估通行风险、立即无条件释放仍被扣押的船员。声明将红海与霍尔木兹海峡污染风险并列，因而与UKOIL和USOIL的运输风险有关；但未披露涉事船舶、肇事方、损失或流量数据，只能确认国际机构的安全关切。

2026-07-23 · Associated Press · 5/5 高

红海与霍尔木兹双重航运冲击

美军对伊朗连续实施第13夜打击后，胡塞武装声称在红海袭击沙特油轮Encelia和Layla，使霍尔木兹与曼德海峡风险叠加。曼德海峡承载全球约12%的贸易，霍尔木兹在和平时期承载约五分之一的石油和天然气运输；布伦特原油07/23一度上涨逾6%至每桶约100美元。事件直接关联UKOIL和USOIL，但第二艘油轮遇袭、责任归属及损害规模仍缺少同等强度的独立确认。

2026-07-23 · Associated Press · 4/5 中高

美国会再度挑战对伊军事行动

美联社07/23报道，美国众议院以214票对208票通过要求对伊军事行动取得国会批准的决议，参议院则以47票对49票否决类似文本；决议没有直接法律效力，但少数共和党人倒戈。战争自2月下旬持续至今，已有18名美军死亡，霍尔木兹海峡仍大面积关闭并推高燃料成本。输入未关联具体代码，文章主要提供能源与宏观风险背景，且缺少通航量、供应损失和价格涨幅数据。

2026-07-26 · Associated Press · 5/5 高

美伊停火窗口与霍尔木兹谈判

美国在连续13夜空袭后暂停打击伊朗，美伊经地区斡旋讨论恢复6月临时停火，折中方向是由伊朗管理霍尔木兹海峡通行并减少对商船限制。该海峡平时承载全球约20%的石油运输，进展直接影响布伦特原油、美国原油和黄金风险定价；但方案仅由匿名调停官员披露，海峡控制权、伊朗内部派系、曼德海峡冲突及内塔尼亚胡下周访美仍可能令降级逆转。

2026-07-29 · 金十数据 · 5/5 高

海峡控制谈判陷入僵局

伊朗拒绝阿曼提出的霍尔木兹海峡对等共管安排，要求完全控制入境航道并长期向过境船舶收费，美国和海湾国家反对。Windward Intelligence称07/27无油轮通过海峡；欧洲盟友对美方联合巡逻仍谨慎。该文发表于美东时间 07/28 21:36（UTC+8 07/29 09:36），直接关联UKOIL（布伦特原油差价合约）和USOIL（美国原油差价合约），谈判消息主要来自媒体与匿名官员。

2026-07-30 · 金十数据 · 5/5 高

美军扩大对伊朗报复打击

美国中央司令部称，美军于美东时间 07/29 20:00（UTC+8 07/30 08:00）开始对伊朗行动，随后完成对数十个伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队目标的大规模打击；报道称中东部署逾5万名美军。美以据称评估外交、强化经济封锁和重启军事行动三条路径。事件关联UKOIL、USOIL和XAUUSD，打击开始与完成属美军公开表述，方案细节主要来自匿名官员。

2026-07-29 · 金十数据 · 4/5 中高

美军酝酿两周强化空袭

《华尔街日报》报道称，美国中央司令部司令库珀向特朗普提出持续10至14天的强化空袭选项，意在削弱伊朗导弹能力；参联会主席凯恩担忧防空拦截弹库存及长期战争后果。文中提及伊朗或保留约21%至22%导弹，但该比例源于特朗普6月表述。报道发表于美东时间 07/29 19:54（UTC+8 07/30 07:54），方案未获官方确认，关联UKOIL、USOIL和XAUUSD。

2026-07-30 · 金十数据 · 4/5 中高

海峡船流回升但运价高企

巴基斯坦外交部称美伊围绕地区稳定及霍尔木兹局势的沟通仍在进行。Kpler监测本周三有14艘大宗商品船舶双向穿越海峡，高于上周个位数；美国能源部长称过去一周日均约650万桶原油运出，部分油轮获武装护航。超级油轮日租金接近50万美元，说明运输风险成本仍高。报道发表于美东时间 07/30 04:30（UTC+8 07/30 16:30），关联UKOIL和USOIL，船流与运价未附完整原始样本。

2026-07-31 · 金十数据 · 5/5 高

伊朗暂停海峡过境许可

伊朗波斯湾海峡事务管理局称，因美军在相关海域行动，霍尔木兹海峡当前不具备安全通航条件；过境许可将在“秩序与平静恢复”后按申请顺序恢复，未给出日期。特朗普称将继续强力打击伊朗。文章发表于美东时间 07/31 10:39（UTC+8 07/31 22:39），直接关联UKOIL、USOIL和XAUUSD；基础设施战损说法引述智库及卫星图像，但未附原始材料。

2026-07-29 · Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 5/5 高

美联储维持利率并现鹰派异议

美联储于美东时间 07/29 14:00（UTC+8 07/30 02:00）以9比3维持联邦基金利率目标区间在3.50%至3.75%，并继续维持充裕准备金。声明称经济稳健、就业与劳动力供给大体匹配，通胀仍高于2%目标，能源等领域供给冲击推高部分价格。哈马克、卡什卡利和洛根主张加息25个基点。该文件为官方一手政策表述。

2026-08-01 · Associated Press · 5/5 高

美伊暂缓打击与霍尔木兹开通

AP于08/01（未给出具体时刻）报道，特朗普称若能迅速达成结束五个月战争的协议，美国将暂缓新增对伊朗打击；其条件包括立即全面开放霍尔木兹海峡与终结伊朗核威胁，以色列称将参与。同期科威特称遭伊朗无人机袭击，英国海军称阿曼近海一艘油轮受击、另一艘附近爆炸。事件直接关联UKOIL与USOIL的海运风险，但协议没有正式文本或各方同步确认。

2026-08-06 · Associated Press · 5/5 高

伊阿曼海峡协议进入草拟末期

AP于08/06（未给出具体时刻）报道，伊朗称与阿曼就霍尔木兹海峡安排的联合声明已进入草拟最后阶段，协议或以美国解除伊朗港口封锁为条件；匿名美国官员称临时通道不应设审批或收费。劳氏船舶情报公司数据显示，07/27至08/02通行84艘次，虽高于前周45艘次，仍低于危机前每周逾700艘次，且过去一周至少两船受击。该进展直接关联UKOIL、USOIL，但协议尚未正式确认。

2026-08-08 · Associated Press · 5/5 高

伊朗以霍尔木兹施压美国

美联社08/08称，伊朗试图以霍尔木兹海峡实际控制权迫使美国解除封锁，并称接近与阿曼达成管理安排；该水道战前承载全球约五分之一石油和天然气贸易，直接关联UKOIL（布伦特原油）和USOIL（美国原油）。收费权、协议文本、美国批准与实际通航均未获独立确认；伊朗三位数食品通胀和国内动荡风险也限制其长期施压能力。

2026-08-07 · Associated Press · 5/5 高

就业转弱推升降息预期

美联社08/07报道，美国7月就业意外减少2.3万，5月和6月合计下修10.3万；标普500指数涨0.6%至7757.64点创高，10年期美债收益率由4.67%降至4.64%，2年期最低4.15%。市场对9月降息的预期降至42%，下周7月消费者价格指数预期同比3.4%仍是关键变量。SPX（标普500指数）直接受股债和盈利预期影响；XAUUSD（现货黄金兑美元）仅有利率传导关联，文中无黄金行情数据。

2026-07-26 · Associated Press · 3/5 中

中国开源模型进入美国市场

美联社07/26报道，中国人工智能模型正凭低成本和开源生态进入美国开发者及企业场景，Coinbase称为降成本而转用相关模型。Kimi K3发布后首周下载逾93万次、美国约8.6万次，分别环比增200%和387%，但曾因需求过载暂停新增订阅。文章未列直接标的，且下载数据为Sensor Tower估计、能力与知识产权争议缺少统一独立验证；截至美东时间08/08 04:30（UTC+8 08/08 16:30）检索，属于近两周行业背景。

打开原文

美伊争夺海峡控制权升级

重要性5/5 高

直接覆盖霍尔木兹海峡封锁、油轮伤亡、地区军事升级及布伦特原油反应，事实密度和油价关联度均高。

来源信息

来源：Associated Press发布日期：2026-07-13归档状态：ready重要性：5/5 高评级理由：直接覆盖霍尔木兹海峡封锁、油轮伤亡、地区军事升级及布伦特原油反应，事实密度和油价关联度均高。

中文摘要

核心结论

美国恢复对伊朗港口的封锁并打击沿岸军事设施，伊朗随即袭击海湾国家和阿联酋关联油轮。霍尔木兹海峡的军事化争夺重新威胁全球能源运输，布伦特原油一度升破84美元。

重要性评级

评级：5/5（高）

报道直接记录美伊冲突、油轮伤亡、封锁安排及油价反应，对判断UKOIL、USOIL（布伦特与美国原油参考代码）的地缘风险溢价具有高时效价值。

关键事实

美国中央司令部称，美军打击阿布穆萨、阿巴斯港、布什尔、恰巴哈尔、贾斯克和科纳拉克周边的海岸防御、导弹、无人机及海上军事设施；伊朗承认遇袭，但未公布完整伤亡和损失。
伊朗袭击与阿联酋有关的Mombasa和Al Bahiyah两艘油轮，造成1名印度籍船员死亡，6名印度人和2名乌克兰人受伤；两船起火后火势被扑灭。
伊朗革命卫队承认发动油轮袭击，称船只无视警告；阿联酋国防部保留回应权利，地区参战范围存在扩大的风险。
伊朗还对巴林发动袭击；约旦军方称拦截4枚伊朗导弹。巴林和约旦均驻有美军。
霍尔木兹海峡在和平时期承载全球约五分之一的原油和天然气贸易。布伦特原油升至一个月高位、超过84美元，仍低于战争高峰附近的120美元。
美国曾在4月中旬实施封锁，并在6月中旬达成临时协议后解除。近期交火使协议继续履行面临压力。
特朗普提出按货物价值收取20%的安全费用，以补偿美国维持通航安全的成本；该方案偏离美国长期主张的免费航行政策。
美军宣布于美东时间07/14 16:00（UTC+8 07/15 04:00）恢复对伊朗港口的封锁。

作者观点与证据

报道将冲突描述为美伊对海峡控制权的竞争，并把油轮袭击、沿岸空袭、海湾盟国遇袭和油价上涨列为升级证据。军事行动细节主要来自美国、伊朗、阿联酋和约旦官方声明，伊朗境内损失缺少完整评估，收费计划也处于政策宣示阶段。

与相关标的的关系

UKOIL和USOIL通过海峡通航量、油轮安全成本、运输保险及中东供应中断预期受到直接影响。报道提供了布伦特原油升破84美元的即时反应，但没有给出实际出口损失、船舶流量或库存变化，无法单独量化持续影响。

时效性与限制

元数据发布时间为美东时间07/12 22:45（UTC+8 07/13 10:45），归档正文包含07/14（未给出具体时刻）及封锁恢复安排等后续内容，说明正文可能经过更新，但页面更新时间字段未正常显示。部分交战方说法尚无独立核验。

后续跟踪

霍尔木兹海峡实际船舶通行量、油轮改道和保险费率。
美国封锁范围、执行力量及20%收费方案是否正式落地。
阿联酋是否采取军事回应，以及巴林、约旦等驻有美军国家的受袭情况。
布伦特原油、实际中东出口量与临时协议谈判进展。

原文

US attacks Iran and Tehran retaliates across the Middle East as both vie for control of strait

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World News

US attacks Iran and Tehran retaliates across the Middle East as both vie for control of strait

1 of 8 |

U.S. Central Command says it used drone ships to hit an Iranian ship maintenance facility and submarine, calling it first. The command said three Corsair unmanned surface vessels hit the port at Bandar Abbas Naval Base on Sunday.

2 of 8 |

The U.S. launched strikes on Iran early Tuesday morning, hours after President Donald Trump said Washington is “reinstating” a blockade on Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.

3 of 8 |

President Donald Trump said Monday the war with Iran is moving “very fast” as U.S. forces pressed ahead with strikes targeting Tehran’s military capabilities, adding that Washington would seek to control the Strait of Hormuz.

4 of 8 |

Iran said on Monday that an initial peace deal reached with the United States last month is in a state of “crisis” as Iran’s military released footage it said showed missiles being launched earlier in the day in response to what it described as “US aggressions”.

5 of 8 |

Three boys play in the shallow waters of the Strait of Hormuz, as a plume of smoke rises from an explosion in the background, off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Monday, July 13, 2026. (Razieh Poudat/ISNA via AP)

6 of 8 |

President Donald Trump speaks after signing executive orders modifying the Bears Ears National Monument and the Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument in the Oval Office of the White House, Monday, July 13, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

7 of 8 |

A woman stands at the water’s edge along the Strait of Hormuz as a plume of smoke rises in the background following an explosion, off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Monday, July 13, 2026. (Razieh Poudat/ISNA via AP)

8 of 8 |

People swim and spend time along the shore of the Strait of Hormuz, off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Sunday, July 12, 2026. (Razieh Poudat/ISNA via AP)

US attacks Iran and Tehran retaliates across the Middle East as both vie for control of strait

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The U.S. launched strikes on Iran early Tuesday morning, hours after President Donald Trump said Washington is “reinstating” a blockade on Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.

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People swim and spend time along the shore of the Strait of Hormuz, off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Sunday, July 12, 2026. (Razieh Poudat/ISNA via AP)

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People swim and spend time along the shore of the Strait of Hormuz, off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Sunday, July 12, 2026. (Razieh Poudat/ISNA via AP)

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JON GAMBRELL , JOSH BOAK , KONSTANTIN TOROPIN and WILL WEISSERT

Updated [hour]:[minute] [AMPM] [timezone], [monthFull] [day], [year]

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The U.S. launched strikes on Iran early Tuesday morning, hours after President Donald Trump said Washington is “reinstating” a blockade on Iran in the Strait of Hormuz . Trump separately suggested the United States will charge other ships for safe passage, upending hundreds of years of American policy supporting freedom of navigation across the globe.

Iran responded with attacks targeting Bahrain, Jordan and two tankers associated with the United Arab Emirates traveling through the strait, killing one mariner and wounding eight others. The Emirates threatened to retaliate against Iran, potentially drawing the nation home to Abu Dhabi and Dubai back into fighting with Tehran.

The attacks come as Iran and the U.S. both vie for control of the strait through which a fifth of all traded crude oil and natural gas once passed in peacetime. The price of benchmark Brent crude oil rose to a one-month high of over $84 in trading early Tuesday, still well below the nearly $120 reached at the height of the war but threatening to make costs everywhere higher.

Trump insists strait will be open

The U.S. military’s Central Command said it struck areas around Abu Musa, Bandar Abbas, Bushehr, Chahbahar, Jask and Konarak, targeting Iranian “coastal defense systems, missile and drone sites and maritime capabilities.” Iran acknowledged strikes around those areas, but provided no immediate casualty or damage assessments.

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“These strikes will continue imposing a heavy cost on Iranian forces and degrade their ability to attack innocent civilians and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz,” the U.S. military said.

Moments after the military announced the new strikes, Trump called it “another major attack.”

“We’re hitting them very hard. And it’ll continue, and we’ll see what happens,” he told reporters in the Oval Office. “We’re knocking out all of their offensive capability and we’re controlling the straits. We’re putting the blockade back.”

Trump also provided new details on his administration doing an about-face and suggesting it will charge tolls for ships going through the strait, after previously suggesting that it wouldn’t.

“We’re protecting a very rich portion of the world,” he said. “We’re spending money. And so, what we’ve done is, we are going to be reimbursed for protection.”

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It’s a change in U.S. policy that, until now, said the strait should remain open to all without tolls — as it was before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28. Any attempt by the U.S. or Iran to charge fees would violate global norms on freedom of navigation and raise tensions, likely causing further economic disruption far beyond the region.

The U.S. Navy has fought for freedom of navigation on the seas since the Barbary Wars and the War of 1812.

Attacks resume across the Mideast

The United Arab Emirates’ Defense Ministry said early Tuesday that Iran attacked two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, killing one mariner and wounding eight others.

The Emirati Defense Ministry said Iran launched two cruise missiles at the tankers Mombasa and Al Bahiyah.

The attacks set both tankers ablaze, though the fires were extinguished.

Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack on the tankers, saying the vessels “ignored repeated warnings.”

“They chose to pass through a minefield and were subsequently targeted and disabled,” the Guard said.

Bahrain also came under renewed attack early Tuesday morning as Iran retaliated over the latest round of U.S. airstrikes. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens twice, urging the public to seek shelter. There was no word on any damage or casualties from the attack.

The Emirati Defense Ministry said the attack on the tankers killed one Indian national and wounded six Indians and two Ukrainians.

“The UAE reserves its full right to respond to this escalation and to take all necessary measures to protect its territory, its citizens and residents,” the Defense Ministry added.

The Emirates used similar language before launching attacks against Iran during the war. Fighter jets could be heard overheard Tuesday morning in Dubai.

The U.S. Embassy in Abu Dhabi and the U.S. Consulate in Dubai alerted Americans early Tuesday that consular appointments had been canceled through Wednesday “due to the regional security situation.”

Jordan’s military said it intercepted four missiles from Iran, according to a statement carried by the kingdom’s state-run Petra news agency. Jordan hosts U.S. forces and has come under attack by Tehran in recent days.

Trump says Iran failed a test

Earlier Monday, Trump told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt that the agreement reached last month was “built to test” Iran, adding that “when you’re dealing with sleazebags (agreements) don’t mean much.”

“They didn’t honor the test,” the president said.

Iran asserts it has the right to manage traffic through the strait and potentially charge fees in accordance with the interim peace deal. The U.S. has disputed that.

The American military and the United Nations’ International Maritime Organization have tried to establish a route through the strait along the coast of Oman that would be outside of Iranian control. Iran has attacked ships using that route, saying the U.S. is violating the interim peace deal. The U.S. has attacked Iran in response, drawing Iranian attacks on U.S.-allied Arab states.

Exchanges of fire in recent days had already cast further doubt on the interim peace deal. Washington had lifted a blockade it imposed in mid-April as part of that deal, which also called for the strait to be fully reopened.

“We are reinstating the THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE,” Trump said on social media. “All other countries will have fair and open use of the Strait.”

The president said the U.S. would be “reimbursed” by 20% of the value of cargo to help cover “any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security.”

The U.S. military said it will resume its blockade of Iranian ports at midnight local Wednesday in Dubai.

___

Boak, Weissert and Toropin reported from Washington. Associated Press writers Mae Anderson in New York, Christopher Weber in Los Angeles, Kareem Chehayeb in Beirut, Munir Ahmed in Islamabad and Stella Martany in Irbil, Iraq, contributed to this report.

JON GAMBRELL

Gambrell is the news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press. He has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the world since joining the AP in 2006.

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JOSH BOAK

Boak covers the White House and economic policy for The Associated Press. He joined the AP in 2013.

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WILL WEISSERT

Weissert covers the White House for The Associated Press. He is based in Washington.

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打开原文

封锁重启与海峡收费撤回

重要性5/5 高

提供封锁正式重启、收费政策逆转、油价回落、美军部署和停火谈判恶化等关键更新，与能源标的高度相关。

来源信息

来源：Associated Press发布日期：2026-07-14归档状态：ready重要性：5/5 高评级理由：提供封锁正式重启、收费政策逆转、油价回落、美军部署和停火谈判恶化等关键更新，与能源标的高度相关。

中文摘要

核心结论

美国正式恢复对伊朗港口的封锁，美伊交火继续向海湾国家扩散；特朗普在封锁生效前撤回海峡20%收费方案，布伦特原油由87美元上方回落至78美元。收费政策缓和了一个风险变量，军事封锁、伊朗能源出口威胁和停火协议破裂风险仍然存在。

重要性评级

评级：5/5（高）

报道更新了前一篇文章中的收费提议、封锁执行和油价变化，并提供美军部署规模及谈判状态，对当日能源和跨资产风险判断具有直接价值。

关键事实

美军于美东时间07/14 16:00（UTC+8 07/15 04:00）重新实施对伊朗港口的封锁，理由是伊朗袭击试图通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只。
美国中央司令部称，美军在7小时内打击伊朗数十个目标；伊朗向邻近海湾国家发射数十枚导弹和无人机，巴林与科威特发出导弹警报。
阿拉伯海至少部署19艘美国军舰，包括2艘航空母舰和1艘载有逾1,000名海军陆战队员的两栖攻击舰；中东地区另有数百架美国军机活动。
伊朗革命卫队威胁阻止整个中东的能源出口，以回应美国封锁。
美国4月中旬首次实施封锁，6月中旬在签署临时协议后解除；该协议设定60天谈判期，涉及伊朗核计划等议题，目前谈判停滞。
特朗普原拟向通过海峡的船只收取20%费用，随后应波斯湾盟友要求，在封锁恢复前撤回；他称海湾国家将以对美投资替代收费，但相关投资是否属于新增承诺尚不明确。
特朗普称，若谈判没有恢复，美国未来两天将继续袭击伊朗，下周可能打击桥梁和发电厂；报道指出至少已有一座桥梁遇袭。
布伦特原油一度突破87美元，低于战争高峰附近的120美元；收费计划撤回后，价格降至78美元。
科威特称伊朗袭击造成4名海军人员受伤并引发建筑物火灾；伊朗媒体还报告布什尔、阿瓦士和阿巴斯港发生爆炸。

作者观点与证据

报道认为临时和平协议正在失效，并以封锁重启、持续空袭、伊朗对海湾国家的反击及调解停滞支持这一判断。兵力部署和打击规模来自美国中央司令部，伊朗境内爆炸来自伊朗官方媒体；海湾国家可能参与报复属于报道提出的可能性，缺少公开确认。巴基斯坦主导调解的情况来自两名匿名地区官员。

与相关标的的关系

UKOIL、USOIL（布伦特与美国原油参考代码）直接受到海峡通航、地区出口风险和政策变化影响。布伦特原油从87美元上方降至78美元，显示市场对收费撤回迅速重估；封锁执行、能源出口威胁和军事行动仍会影响供应风险溢价。

时效性与限制

元数据发布时间为美东时间07/14 00:26（UTC+8 07/14 12:26），正文包含07/15（未给出具体时刻）的封锁和交火进展，页面更新时间字段未正常显示，实际正文可能经过后续更新。油价为报道时段内价格，不能视为当前报价；投资承诺、伤亡和战损信息仍不完整。

后续跟踪

封锁后的实际船舶流量、中东油气出口量和航运保险成本。
伊朗是否执行阻断地区能源出口的威胁。
美国后续打击范围是否扩展至桥梁、发电厂等基础设施。
巴基斯坦调解、60天谈判窗口及临时协议能否恢复。
海湾国家对美投资安排是否形成可核验的新承诺。

原文

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US reimposes its blockade on Iran after Tehran’s attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz

1 of 11 |

President Donald Trump on Tuesday backtracked on plans to charge ships for using the Strait of Hormuz, saying Gulf countries would instead invest in the United States.

2 of 11 |

The U.S. launched strikes on Iran early Tuesday, hours after President Donald Trump vowed to reinstate an American blockade of Iranian ports and charge ships for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

3 of 11 |

The U.S. carried out another wave of strikes on Iran as it reimposed a blockade, striking dozens of targets over seven hours, the U.S. military’s Central Command said Wednesday.

4 of 11 |

Iran’s president on Tuesday rejected U.S. President Donald’s Trump “rude language” against his country as the U.S. launches further strikes in the region. Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran would retaliate and “respond in action and protect what we believe in, every inch of our soil.”

5 of 11 |

President Donald Trump welcomed Iraq’s new prime minister to the White House. Ali al-Zaidi’s visit Tuesday aims to strengthen economic ties and attract investment. However, discussions will likely include pressure on Iraq to disarm Iran-backed militias.

6 of 11 |

Tehran residents on Tuesday showed mixed reactions to the United States decision to reimpose a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz right before U.S. President Donald Trump later backtracked on plans to charge ships for using the strait, saying Gulf countries would instead invest in the United States. (AP Video by Mohsen Ganji)

7 of 11 |

A woman holds a poster depicting U.S. President Donald Trump in the crosshairs of a rifle scope with the English words “There Will Be Blood,” while another woman holds a portrait of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his son, current Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, as mourners gather to commemorate the late leader at the Imam Khomeini Mosalla Grand Mosque in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, July 14, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

8 of 11 |

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A woman holds a religious flag as mourners gather to commemorate the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at the Imam Khomeini Mosalla Grand Mosque in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, July 14, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

10 of 11 |

Women sit beneath a portrait of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as mourners gather to commemorate the late leader at the Imam Khomeini Mosalla Grand Mosque in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, July 14, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

11 of 11 |

Mourners chant as they raise their fists during a gathering commemorating the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at the Imam Khomeini Mosalla Grand Mosque in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, July 14, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

US reimposes its blockade on Iran after Tehran’s attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz

1 of 11

President Donald Trump on Tuesday backtracked on plans to charge ships for using the Strait of Hormuz, saying Gulf countries would instead invest in the United States.

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The U.S. carried out another wave of strikes on Iran as it reimposed a blockade, striking dozens of targets over seven hours, the U.S. military’s Central Command said Wednesday.

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JON GAMBRELL , COLLIN BINKLEY and KONSTANTIN TOROPIN

Updated [hour]:[minute] [AMPM] [timezone], [monthFull] [day], [year]

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The U.S. military early Wednesday reimposed a blockade on Iranian ports over Tehran’s attacks on ships trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz , sparking new strikes on nations hosting American forces as an interim deal to end the war further unraveled.

Days of retaliatory strikes across the Middle East by Iran — and both nations’ attempts to vie for control of the waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas passes during peacetime — threaten to push the region back to all-out war.

The U.S. first imposed the blockade in mid-April and then lifted it in mid-June, a day after signing the interim deal that set a 60-day period for negotiations over issues like Iran’s nuclear program, but talks have stalled as fighting over the strait has intensified.

Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard threatened Wednesday to halt all energy exports from the Middle East over the blockade.

“The export of oil and gas from the region will be either for everyone or for no one,” it said.

When U.S. President Donald Trump announced the return of the blockade Monday, he also said he would impose a 20% fee on ships passing through the strait. But he dropped the plan to collect fees hours before resuming the blockade, citing requests from allies in the Persian Gulf.

Both US and Iran launched attacks as blockade reimposed

The U.S. carried out another wave of strikes as it reimposed the blockade, striking dozens of targets over seven hours, the U.S. military’s Central Command said Wednesday.

Missile alert warnings went out in Bahrain and Kuwait early Wednesday morning as they faced incoming Iranian fire, something that’s been a daily occurrence, further straining a ceasefire in the war.

RELATED COVERAGE

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Why it’s so difficult for the US to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz

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FACT FOCUS: A look at US and Iranian claims of control over the Strait of Hormuz

U.S. Navy Adm. Brad Cooper, who leads Central Command, said in a statement that Iran had launched dozens of missiles and drones at neighboring Gulf Arab countries.

“U.S. forces are holding Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression that continues to endanger innocent lives,” Cooper said.

There are at least 19 U.S. warships in the Arabian Sea, including two aircraft carriers and an amphibious assault ship with more than 1,000 Marines aboard. Central Command also said in a social media post that there are “hundreds of military aircraft operating across the Middle East.”

When the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Iran on Feb. 28, Tehran effectively shut the passage by attacking and threatening ships. That sent the price of oil, fertilizer and other goods soaring.

Our flagship newsletter breaks down the biggest headlines of the day.

Iran has more recently attacked ships moving through the strait on a route near Oman overseen by the U.S. military that is outside Tehran’s control, setting off the recent violence. The U.S. has threatened to reopen the strait by force — but experts say that would require a much bigger armada if not tens of thousands of ground troops.

Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravani, criticized America’s ongoing attacks targeting his country.

“The U.S. is the aggressor, not the victim,” he wrote to the world body’s leader, according to the state-run IRNA news agency.

Trump says he’s replacing the fees with Gulf investments

Trump said Tuesday that he was called by the region’s “kings and emirs,” who suggested an alternate arrangement to charging ships fees to pass through the strait like the president proposed a day earlier.

“They said we’d love to do it a different way. We’d love to invest in the United States with billions and billions of dollars,” Trump told reporters Tuesday in the Oval Office.

Trump said he preferred that arrangement to charging tolls “because I don’t think anybody should be able to charge a fee for the strait.”

It was unclear if the investment deals would be new commitments relative to what Trump announced after a visit last year to the Middle East.

Trump’s plan to charge fees would have been a change to longstanding American policy and a departure from U.S. promises that the strait would remain open to all without tolls.

Trump told Fox News Channel on Tuesday night that more U.S. strikes against Iran were coming over the next two days and that bridges and power plants could be targets by next week unless negotiations resume. Already, the U.S. has struck at least one bridge.

“You better make a deal, or you’re not going to have anything left,” Trump warned.

Strikes and counterstrikes resume across the Mideast

U.S. Central Command said it struck several areas in Iran earlier Tuesday; Tehran acknowledged the strikes but provided no overall casualty or damage assessments.

Hours after the U.S. said it ended its strikes, the Iranian city of Bushehr on the Persian Gulf was hit in at least four locations, the IRNA news agency reported. Explosions in the southwestern city of Ahvaz and the southern port city of Bandar Abbas also were reported by Iranian state media Tuesday night.

The attacks again raised the possibility that Gulf Arab states were retaliating against Iran without discussing it in public.

Kuwait separately said an Iranian attack wounded four members of its navy Tuesday and set a building on fire.

The interim peace deal is in peril

Under the interim deal , Iran agreed that passage through the strait would remain free of charge for 60 days — but the agreement left open what would happen after. Iran asserts it has the right to manage traffic and potentially charge fees. The U.S. has disputed that.

The price for a barrel of Brent crude oil, the international standard, briefly topped $87 early Tuesday , still well below the nearly $120 reached at the height of the war. The price dipped to $78 in the aftermath of Trump’s announcement that he had changed course.

Regional mediators meanwhile are still trying to get the United States and Iran back to the negotiating table, according to two regional officials.

The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the delicate diplomatic process, said Pakistan-led mediation was working around the clock to reactivate the ceasefire.

___

Toropin and Binkley reported from Washington. Associated Press writers Samy Magdy in Cairo; Will Weissert and Ben Finley in Washington; and Christopher Weber in Los Angeles contributed to this report.

JON GAMBRELL

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COLLIN BINKLEY

Binkley covers the White House and education policy for The Associated Press. He is based in Washington and joined the AP in 2015.

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打开原文

伊拉克推进两百万桶级西向输油管道

重要性4/5 中高

每日200万桶的拟议西向管道与伊拉克长期出口能力直接相关，且报道来自美联社并包含具体线路和参与方；关键条款仍依赖匿名官员，项目尚未进入可验证的建设阶段。

来源信息

来源：Associated Press发布日期：2026-07-14归档状态：ready重要性：4/5 中高评级理由：每日200万桶的拟议西向管道与伊拉克长期出口能力直接相关，且报道来自美联社并包含具体线路和参与方；关键条款仍依赖匿名官员，项目尚未进入可验证的建设阶段。

中文摘要

核心结论

伊拉克总理阿里·扎伊迪访美期间，美伊双方把安全合作、解除亲伊朗民兵武装与能源投资放入同一议程。最具市场含义的事实是伊拉克拟建设一条日输送能力约200万桶的管道，从巴士拉经哈迪塞连接土耳其杰伊汉港和叙利亚巴尼亚斯港，为伊拉克原油增加西向出口通道。

重要性评级

评级：4/5（中高）

拟议管道规模较大，直接关系伊拉克长期出口能力和海湾运输路径，但协议尚未公开签署，建设周期、融资安排和线路安全均未披露，对当日油价的解释力低于正在发生的霍尔木兹海峡军事冲突。

关键事实

美国总统特朗普于07/14（未给出具体时刻）在白宫会见伊拉克新任总理阿里·扎伊迪；这是扎伊迪就任后首次出访伊拉克。
伊拉克政府要求境内非国家武装组织在09/30（未给出具体时刻）前解除武装。扎伊迪称该日期后，这些组织将没有继续存在的正当理由。
多个亲伊朗民兵组织已表示无意解除武装。查塔姆研究所分析认为，伊拉克政府若强制推进，可能遭到这些组织反击。
两名匿名伊拉克官员称，伊拉克计划与Chevron（雪佛龙，美国能源公司）、TI Capital（投资方）和卡塔尔UCC（工程承包商）签署输油管道协议。
拟议线路由伊拉克南部巴士拉通往西部哈迪塞，再连接土耳其杰伊汉港和叙利亚巴尼亚斯港，设计输送能力约为每日200万桶。
特朗普政府官员称，美国正协助伊拉克与叙利亚讨论未来能源项目；特朗普与扎伊迪在公开会谈中均未说明管道协议细节。
扎伊迪代表团包括伊拉克商界和政府官员，访问目标涵盖吸引投资、扩大美国企业参与基础设施建设并发展能源产业。

作者观点与证据

美联社将此次访问描述为美国扩大对伊拉克影响力的尝试，安全议题指向削弱伊朗在伊拉克的政治与武装网络，经济议题则以大型输油管道和美国企业投资为抓手。管道规模与线路来自两名匿名伊拉克官员，属于具体但尚待正式文件确认的消息；美国政府只确认正在促进地区能源对话。文中专家同时指出，扎伊迪由伊拉克现有政治体系推举，其打击民兵和腐败的能力仍受国内权力结构制约。

与相关标的的关系

UKOIL（布伦特原油参考标的）和USOIL（美国原油参考标的）与该项目存在长期供给及运输路径关联。若管道建成，伊拉克可获得通往地中海方向的新增出口能力，降低单一路线受阻时的运输约束；当前仅处于拟签约阶段，尚不足以改变近期实物供应。

时效性与限制

文章发布于美东时间 07/14 00:07（UTC+8 07/14 12:07），采集于美东时间 07/15 21:56（UTC+8 07/16 09:56）。报道未提供正式协议文本、造价、融资结构、开工和投产日期，也未说明两条港口支线如何分配约200万桶的设计能力。

后续跟踪

管道协议是否正式签署，以及签约方、融资方和承建方名单。
项目造价、建设周期、投产目标和实际可用运力。
伊拉克政府在09/30期限前解除亲伊朗民兵武装的执行进度。
叙利亚与土耳其境内线路的安全、过境和港口安排。

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Trump touts ‘tremendous chemistry’ with new Iraqi Prime Minister al-Zaidi during White House visit

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President Donald Trump welcomed Iraq’s new Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi to the White House Tuesday, hailing their “tremendous chemistry” and touting closer U.S.-Iraq ties, expanded oil production and new business deals with American companies.

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President Donald Trump meets with Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi in the Oval Office of the White House, Tuesday, July 14, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

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President Donald Trump meets with Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi in the Oval Office of the White House, Tuesday, July 14, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

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President Donald Trump, gestures as he greets Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi at the White House, Tuesday, July 14, 2026, in Washington.(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

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President Donald Trump greets Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi at the White House, Tuesday, July 14, 2026, in Washington.(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

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President Donald Trump greets Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi at the White House, Tuesday, July 14, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Trump touts ‘tremendous chemistry’ with new Iraqi Prime Minister al-Zaidi during White House visit

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President Donald Trump meets with Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi in the Oval Office of the White House, Tuesday, July 14, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

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President Donald Trump meets with Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi in the Oval Office of the White House, Tuesday, July 14, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

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President Donald Trump meets with Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi in the Oval Office of the White House, Tuesday, July 14, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

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President Donald Trump meets with Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi in the Oval Office of the White House, Tuesday, July 14, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

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President Donald Trump, gestures as he greets Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi at the White House, Tuesday, July 14, 2026, in Washington.(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

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President Donald Trump, gestures as he greets Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi at the White House, Tuesday, July 14, 2026, in Washington.(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

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President Donald Trump greets Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi at the White House, Tuesday, July 14, 2026, in Washington.(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

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President Donald Trump greets Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi at the White House, Tuesday, July 14, 2026, in Washington.(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

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President Donald Trump greets Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi at the White House, Tuesday, July 14, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

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President Donald Trump greets Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi at the White House, Tuesday, July 14, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

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SEUNG MIN KIM and QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA

Updated [hour]:[minute] [AMPM] [timezone], [monthFull] [day], [year]

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WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump gave Iraq’s new prime minister an effusive welcome at the White House on Tuesday, promoting the “tremendous chemistry” between him and a fellow wealthy businessman who arrived at the seat of governmental power without any prior political experience.

Ali al-Zaidi emerged as a consensus candidate in Iraq after months of deadlock over the premiership following last year’s parliamentary elections. Trump endorsed al-Zaidi for the job after he threatened to cut off U.S. support for Iraq if another candidate became the country’s next prime minister.

“Mark my words, I knew what I was doing,” Trump said in the Oval Office as he sat alongside al-Zaidi for his first visit outside Iraq as prime minister. “This man is going to be a great leader in the Middle East, beyond Iraq. His influence is going to spread all throughout the Middle East.”

Speaking through an interpreter, al-Zaidi said that he was conveying his greetings from the “oldest civilization in the world” and that the focus of his U.S. visit would be to announce an “economic partnership” between the two countries.

The issue of Iran loomed large in the discussions Tuesday. Iraq has been under pressure to disarm a network of Iran-backed militias operating in the country, some of which launched attacks on U.S. bases and diplomatic facilities after the U.S. and Israel launched their war against Iran in February. Officially, the Iraqi government has given non-state armed groups until the end of September to disarm, but some of the most powerful militias have said they have no intention of doing so.

Al-Zaidi stressed on Tuesday that there will be no justification for their existence after Sept. 30. A Trump administration official said ahead of the Oval Office meeting that the U.S. will make “informed” decisions based on Iraq’s efforts to disarm Iranian-backed militias inside its borders. The official insisted on anonymity to discuss the administration’s strategy ahead of al-Zaidi’s visit.

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Al-Zaidi has been called ‘Trump of the Middle East’

Iraq’s dominant parliamentary bloc called the Coordination Framework, a coalition of Shiite parties allied with Iran, initially said it would back former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, whom the Trump administration viewed as too close to Tehran. Trump, a Republican, got personally involved, threatening to block support if al-Maliki returned to power.

Since al-Zaidi’s formal installation as prime minister-designate in April, the Trump administration has kept up its outreach to ensure the U.S. can wield significant sway in Iraq, particularly in extricating the Iranian influence that is deeply entrenched inside the country.

The parallel backgrounds of Trump and al-Zaidi have also bolstered their rapport. Victoria Taylor, director of the Iraq Initiative at the Atlantic Council, noted that al-Zaidi has been likened to “Trump of the Middle East” considering his business background and lack of political experience.

“When you value business success, I think then it’s very appealing to look at an Iraqi prime minister who is likely a billionaire and can be really pointed to as a political outsider,” she said.

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But Taylor added that “the reality is much more complicated,” noting that al-Zaidi was chosen by the current political infrastructure in Iraq and will be “beholden in some way to that system.”

“I’m not always sure that there’s a full appreciation of the challenge that this prime minister will face in actually trying to really dismantle core parts of the political system,” she said, noting the obstacles that al-Zaidi will face as he tries to disarm the Iran-backed militias or challenge political corruption.

Underscoring the complicated competing interests that al-Zaidi is confronting in Iraq, the new prime minister sidestepped a question about Trump’s remarks on the 2020 killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani .

“At that time, I wasn’t involved in politics,” al-Zaidi said. “Let’s talk about the future.”

Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at the Chatham House think tank, said he expects that “the U.S. will put significant pressure on al-Zaidi” to move ahead with disarmament during his Washington visit “and Zaidi will respond by saying, ‘But I need support — intelligence support, technical support, armed support.’”

“There is a scenario in which, if the Iraqi government starts going after these groups, they will also go after the government,” Mansour said. “And this is a scenario that I think that the Iraqi government is apprehensive about.”

Oil pipeline deal is set to be signed, Iraqi officials say

The two governments are also poised to finalize a significant energy deal.

Two Iraqi officials said an agreement is slated to be signed Friday between Iraq, U.S. companies Chevron and TI Capital, and Qatar’s UCC for construction of an oil pipeline that will connect southern Iraq’s Basra to western Iraq’s Haditha and from there to the Ceyhan port in Turkey and the port of Baniyas on Syria’s coast. The pipeline is projected to carry about 2 million barrels of oil per day. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly.

Neither Trump nor al-Zaidi elaborated on the pending deal publicly during their Oval Office meeting, but the U.S. president said Iraq has “tremendous potential” because of its oil.

Later, a senior Trump administration official said the U.S. is “facilitating conversation” between Iraq and Syria on future energy projects. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations among the governments.

Al-Zaidi cracks down on corruption

Al-Zaidi received Trump’s blessing, despite the fact that he was chairman of a bank, Al-Janoob Islamic Bank, that was among the financial institutions banned by Iraq’s central bank in 2024 from dealing in dollars amid pressure from the U.S. to crack down on money laundering and funneling of funds to Iran.

Since taking office, al-Zaidi has made a public show of cracking down on corruption. His government has conducted raids and arrested dozens of current and former lawmakers and government officials accused of corruption, including some affiliated with former Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.

The Iraqi premier’s delegation to Washington includes a number of Iraqi businessmen and government officials, and al-Zaidi’s office said in a statement that the aim of the visit is to “strengthen economic and development partnerships, attract investment, and expand the role of U.S. companies in implementing infrastructure projects” and to further develop the oil-rich country’s energy sector.

___

An earlier version of this story was corrected to show Trump said “if we are not there to help,” not “if we are there to help.”

___

Follow the AP’s coverage of Iraq at https://apnews.com/hub/iraq .

SEUNG MIN KIM

Kim covers the White House for The Associated Press. She joined the AP in 2022 and is based in Washington. Kim is also a political analyst for CNN.

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美伊重启封锁与霍尔木兹冲突升级

重要性5/5 高

封锁、空袭、油轮伤亡、20%收费设想和油价变化均是当日日报的直接能源风险事实，来源涵盖政府、国际航运机构和主流媒体；部分战损与政策执行仍待确认。

来源信息

来源：Australian Broadcasting Corporation发布日期：2026-07-14归档状态：ready重要性：5/5 高评级理由：封锁、空袭、油轮伤亡、20%收费设想和油价变化均是当日日报的直接能源风险事实，来源涵盖政府、国际航运机构和主流媒体；部分战损与政策执行仍待确认。

中文摘要

核心结论

美国恢复对伊朗港口的封锁并再次空袭伊朗沿海军事设施，伊朗随后攻击海湾地区美军目标及与阿联酋有关的油轮，短暂停火安排已遭实质破坏。霍尔木兹海峡同时面临军事冲突和美国拟按货值收取20%“保护补偿”的政策冲击，布伦特原油升至每桶84美元以上的一个月高点。

重要性评级

评级：5/5（高）

报道覆盖封锁恢复、油轮受袭、地区军事行动、收费政策与即时油价，和UKOIL（布伦特原油参考标的）、USOIL（美国原油参考标的）高度相关。澳大利亚广播公司汇总美国、伊朗、阿联酋、约旦及航运机构信息，但多项战损说法仍缺少独立核实。

关键事实

美国中央司令部称，美军空袭阿布穆萨、阿巴斯港、布什尔、恰巴哈尔、贾斯克和科纳拉克周边的岸防、导弹、无人机及海上作战设施；伊朗确认有关地区遇袭，但未公布伤亡和损失。
美国宣布自美东时间 07/14 16:00（UTC+8 07/15 04:00）起恢复封锁伊朗港口。特朗普称美国将控制海峡，并要求过往船舶为安全保护支付相当于货物价值20%的补偿。
国际海事组织IMO（联合国负责航运安全的机构）重申，霍尔木兹海峡应依据国际法保持免收通行费，并谴责针对民用商船的攻击。
阿联酋称，伊朗以两枚巡航导弹击中Mombasa和Al Bahyah两艘油轮，造成1名船员死亡、8人受伤，其中4人重伤；两艘船均遭受重大损坏。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队承认发动攻击，并称船只无视警告。
英国海上贸易行动办公室UKMTO（英国航运安全信息机构）另报一艘油轮在阿曼盖勒哈特东北约74公里处被不明弹体击中，船员均安全。
约旦称拦截4枚来自伊朗的导弹；巴林三次拉响导弹警报。伊朗宣称击中巴林和科威特境内美军基地，部分战损说法遭美国中央司令部否认或尚无独立确认。
和平时期，全球约五分之一的贸易原油和天然气经霍尔木兹海峡运输。布伦特原油升至每桶84美元以上，为一个月高点，但仍低于战争高峰期接近120美元的水平。
澳大利亚国民银行分析师估算，对典型超级油轮货物征收20%费用，可能使每桶经海峡运输的原油增加约16美元成本；该政策能否实施仍不确定。

作者观点与证据

报道判断，美伊上月达成的临时安排已受到军事行动和封锁恢复的严重破坏，收费计划还改变了美国长期支持航行自由的政策立场。支撑这一判断的证据包括美国中央司令部公告、特朗普公开表态、阿联酋国防部伤亡数据、伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队声明、UKMTO航运事件通报及即时油价。伊朗对美军基地造成重大破坏的说法主要来自其官方机构，美国方面提出否认，报道没有给出独立卫星图像或现场核验结果。

与相关标的的关系

UKOIL和USOIL直接受到海峡通行能力、油轮安全、保险与运费、封锁范围以及20%收费方案影响。84美元以上的布伦特价格显示风险溢价已上升；海峡承担全球约五分之一贸易原油和天然气运输，使局部军事事件具备向全球能源成本传导的渠道。

时效性与限制

文章标注发布于07/14（未给出具体时刻），采集于美东时间 07/15 21:56（UTC+8 07/16 09:56）。这是一篇滚动直播汇总，军事行动、船舶状态、封锁执行范围及伤亡数字可能在发布后快速变化；20%收费仍是特朗普提出的政策，缺少实施规则和国际法执行安排。

后续跟踪

伊朗港口封锁的实际范围、持续时间及商船通行量。
两艘受袭油轮的损坏、货物状态和航道恢复情况。
20%收费方案是否形成正式规则，以及航运公司、保险机构和国际组织的反应。
布伦特原油、航运费率和战争险报价对新增军事事件的反应。

原文

Mid-East ceasefire in tatters as Trump reinstates blockade, Iran strikes US bases

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Middle East ceasefire in tatters as Trump reinstates blockade and Iran strikes US bases

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Middle East ceasefire in tatters as Trump reinstates blockade and Iran strikes US bases

By Andrew Thorpe , Hanan Dervisevic and Eden G Regan , with wires

Topic: War

Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 8:35am Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 8:35am Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 8:35am

Smoke rises over Bahrain's capital, Manama, after the successful interception of an Iranian drone. ( Reuters )

Skip to timeline The US launched fresh strikes on Iran overnight, hours after US President Donald Trump said Washington was "reinstating" a blockade on the country in the Strait of Hormuz.

Mr Trump also said the US would begin charging other ships for safe passage through the strait, up-ending hundreds of years of American policy supporting freedom of navigation across the globe.

Iran responded with attacks targeting Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and two tankers associated with the United Arab Emirates travelling through the strait, killing one mariner and wounding eight others.

Loading... The Emirates threatened to retaliate against Iran, potentially drawing the nation that is home to Abu Dhabi and Dubai back into fighting with Tehran.

The attacks come as Iran and the US vie for control of the strait, through which one-fifth of all traded crude oil and natural gas once passed in peacetime.

The price of benchmark Brent crude oil rose to a one-month high of more than $US84 in trading early on Tuesday, still well below the nearly $US120 reached at the height of the war but threatening to make costs everywhere higher.

Trump insists strait will be open

The US military's Central Command said it struck areas around the cities of Abu Musa, Bandar Abbas, Bushehr, Chabahar, Jask and Konarak, targeting Iranian "coastal defense systems, missile and drone sites and maritime capabilities".

Iran acknowledged strikes around those areas, but provided no immediate casualty or damage assessments.

"These strikes will continue imposing a heavy cost on Iranian forces and degrade their ability to attack innocent civilians and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz," the US military said.

Moments after the military announced the new strikes, Mr Trump called it "another major attack".

"We're hitting them very hard. And it'll continue, and we'll see what happens," he told reporters in the Oval Office.

"We're knocking out all of their offensive capability and we're controlling the straits. We're putting the blockade back."

Mr Trump also provided new details on his suggestion that the US will charge tolls for ships going through the strait, an about-face after previously saying it would not.

"We're protecting a very rich portion of the world," he said.

" We're spending money. And so, what we've done is, we are going to be reimbursed for protection. "

It is a change in US policy that, until now, said the strait should remain open to all without tolls, as it was before the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.

Any attempt by the US or Iran to charge fees would violate global norms on freedom of navigation and raise tensions, likely causing further economic disruption far beyond the region.

Prior to the US strikes, Mr Trump told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt that the agreement reached last month was "built to test" Iran, adding that "when you're dealing with sleazebags, [agreements] don't mean much."

"They didn't honour the test," the president said.

"We had this deal settled numerous times and they never followed it."

The US military said it would resume its blockade of Iranian ports at about 11:30pm Tuesday, Iranian time.

Attacks resume across the Middle East

The United Arab Emirates's defence ministry said Iran had attacked two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, killing one mariner and wounding eight others.

The Emirati Defense Ministry said Iran launched two cruise missiles at the tankers Mombasa and Al Bahyah.

The attacks set both tankers ablaze, though the fires were extinguished.

The Al Bahyah oil tanker, seen here in 2025, was one of two vessels attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. ( Supplied: MarineTraffic/Darwin Nickel )

"The UAE reserves its full right to respond to this escalation and to take all necessary measures to protect its territory, its citizens and residents," the Defense Ministry added.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's shipping arm, ADNOC L&S, later confirmed the very large crude carriers were struck while transiting the strait and had sustained "significant damage".

UAE state oil ‌giant ADNOC has been among the most active participants in a US military-led operation to move Gulf crude out to international buyers through ship-to-ship transfers beyond the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported last month.

The UAE defence ministry said the tankers were targeted in the southern lane of the strait while in Omani territorial waters. The dead crew member was aboard the ‌Mombasa, it said.

Of the eight wounded, four were seriously injured. Six of the wounded were Indian nationals and ‌two were Ukrainian nationals, the ministry said.

The Emirates used similar language before launching attacks against Iran during the war. Fighter jets could be heard overhead on Tuesday morning in Dubai.

Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed the attack on the tankers, saying the vessels "ignored repeated warnings".

"They chose to pass through a minefield and were subsequently targeted and disabled," the IRGC said.

Separately, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency said on Tuesday that a tanker had been hit by an unknown projectile while travelling 40 ‌nautical miles (74 kilometres) north-east of Oman's Qalhat.

UKMTO said the tanker's master reported that the projectile struck the starboard-side engine room and that all crew were safe.

Jordan's military also said it intercepted four missiles from Iran, according to a statement carried by the kingdom's state-run Petra news agency.

Jordan hosts US forces and has come under attack by Tehran in recent days.

Bahrain also came under renewed attack, as Iran retaliated over the latest round of US air strikes.

The island kingdom sounded its missile alert sirens three times, urging the public to seek shelter. There was no word on any damage or casualties from the attack.

Iran also said it had carried out successful attacks on US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.

Lebanon, Israel hold US-brokered talks in Rome

Lebanon and Israel resumed talks on Tuesday in Rome, with Beirut hoping for progress towards securing an Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon under a US-brokered deal, although expectations for swift progress were low.

US-led diplomacy has emerged since Hezbollah and Israel returned to war on March 2 amid the wider regional conflict, moving forward despite strong objections from the Iran-backed group, which believes only Iranian pressure on Washington can secure an end to the war and Israeli withdrawal.

Iran demanded an end to the war in Lebanon as part of its interim deal with Washington signed last month, but the agreement has been shaken over the last week by renewed US–Iranian hostilities in the Gulf.

Israel's military is occupying what it describes as a "buffer zone" about 10km into Lebanon along the entire length of the Israeli border.

Israeli officials say the zone ‌is ⁠necessary to protect northern Israeli communities from attacks launched by Hezbollah.

A meeting in Washington on June 26 produced an agreement that called for an end to the Lebanon conflict, the disarmament of militant groups — an apparent reference to Hezbollah — as well as the deployment of Lebanese troops to the south and the progressive withdrawal of Israeli forces.

But deadly Israeli strikes have continued and Hezbollah has rejected the agreement as well as efforts to disarm it. Israel, meanwhile, has said its troops would remain in southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah remained armed.

Lebanese and Israeli officials will meet at the US embassy in Rome on Tuesday and Wednesday to set out how to implement the framework deal, Lebanese officials told Reuters.

One of the officials said moving the talks to Rome would make it easier for both countries' delegations to consult their governments for guidance as they negotiated.

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said on Monday that Italy had offered to host the talks to continue work towards a genuine ceasefire in Lebanon.

"We are also very pleased that Rome can serve as the venue for these meetings. In this way, our capital becomes a capital of peace," Mr Tajani said ahead of a European Union meeting in Brussels on Monday.

Israel's military has forced the local Lebanese population from their homes and carried out controlled explosions of entire villages. It says it is destroying infrastructure, including underground tunnels, used by Hezbollah.

More than 4,000 Lebanese have been killed and more than a million displaced by Israel's campaign in Lebanon since March, according to Lebanon's health ministry.

The toll does not say how many combatants may be among the dead and Hezbollah has not disclosed figures on its war dead. Reuters reported on May 3 that several thousand Hezbollah fighters had been killed.

At least 32 Israeli soldiers and four Israeli civilians have been killed by Hezbollah, most ⁠of them in southern Lebanon since the latest fighting erupted.

AP/Reuters

Take a look back at how today's events unfolded with our live blog below.

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Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 3:24pm Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 3:24pm

We're going to end our live coverage here

###

By Andrew Thorpe

With the United States likely pausing its attacks on Iran until tomorrow evening (local time), we're going to end our live coverage of the war for today.

However, the ABC is staying across the situation in the Middle East and will continue to publish stories as more news comes to hand.

To make sure you're up to date, you can monitor the Iran section of our website .

Thanks for joining us.

Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 3:14pm Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 3:14pm

'We love you', IRGC tells Jordanian people after ballistic missile attack

###

By Andrew Thorpe

Iran's Revolutionary Guards have released a statement confirming they targeted a US air base in Jordan with ballistic missiles earlier today.

The statement, published by the IRGC-linked Fars News agency, called on the Jordanian people to dismantle American bases in their country, according to Reuters.

"You know very well ‌that not only do we ⁠not ‌have any enmity with ‌your country, but we ‌also love you, the ‌noble people, ⁠who understand the pain and oppression of the Palestinian people more than ⁠any other nation," the statement ‌said.

Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 3:09pm Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 3:09pm

Iran says it shot down US Predator drone over Strait of Hormuz

###

By Andrew Thorpe

Iran's Revolutionary Guards say they shot down a US MQ-1 drone — also known as the Predator — over the Strait of Hormuz earlier this morning, according to state-run broadcaster IRIB.

Initially intended for aerial reconnaissance, the Predator was modified to carry Hellfire missiles in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, and became a symbol of US air dominance across the Middle East in the years that followed.

A US Air Force MQ-1 Predator drone. (US Air Force) It was officially retired in 2018 , in favour of the newer MQ-9 Reaper.

However, a fleet of Predators seems to have been brought back into service in recent months due to the war with Iran, with another having been shot down in May .

At about $US4–$US5 million a pop (as opposed to $US30 million for the Reaper), the loss of a Predator won't make a huge dent in the US military budget — but the fact it had to be brought out of retirement in the first place should tell us something about America's readiness for a prolonged conflict.

Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 2:39pm Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 2:39pm

More missile alerts sound in Bahrain

###

By Andrew Thorpe

Bahrain has sounded its missile alert sirens for the third time today , with the island kingdom that houses the US Navy's Fifth Fleet urging members of the public to take shelter.

There is still no official word yet on any damage or casualties from the Iranian missile and drone attacks, but Iran's Revolutionary Guards earlier claimed to have inflicted heavy damage on a US base .

Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 2:36pm Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 2:36pm

US blockade of Iranian ships to begin tomorrow morning

###

By Andrew Thorpe

A statement from CENTCOM says the US will resume blockading traffic in and out of Iranian ports from 4pm Tuesday on the US east coast — that's 11:30pm on Tuesday in Iran (and 6am Wednesday AEST ).

Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 2:09pm Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 2:09pm

Jordan says it intercepted four missiles fired by Iran

###

By Andrew Thorpe

Jordan's state news agency says the Jordanian military has intercepted and downed four missiles that entered Jordanian airspace from Iran.

It's the second time in 24 hours it's had to make the same statement, with a previous Iranian attack yesterday targeting US military facilities in the country.

No word yet on whether Iran launched more than the four missiles reported by Jordan.

Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 1:59pm Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 1:59pm

Revolutionary Guards tout success of strike on US naval base in Bahrain

###

By Andrew Thorpe

Iran's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) say their attack on a US navy base in Juffair, Bahrain , which hosts the US Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT), destroyed a range of radar systems, including the Fifth Fleet's air control , a C-Ram early warning system , and sensors for Patriot surface-to-air missiles .

The IRGC also says the attack set the Fifth Fleet's fuel storage facilities on fire , and blew up a "control and monitoring centre for unmanned guided boats".

Iran made similar claims about an attack on US military bases in Kuwait earlier this morning, however a CENTCOM spokesperson, speaking to The New York Times, denied there was any truth behind them.

We're awaiting independent confirmation of the damage caused by both attacks.

Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 1:43pm Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 1:43pm

Oil spike could spell higher petrol prices for Australians

###

By Andrew Thorpe

Australian drivers are in for another round of anxiety as global oil prices spike on the back of Donald Trump's latest announcement.

National Australia Bank senior analyst Jason Wong says a 20 per cent levy on cargo shipped through the Strait of Hormuz would add about $US16 ($23) to the cost of every barrel of oil passing through the strait on a typical supertanker.

"It remains to be seen whether the plan will stick — probably not — [or] whether it is merely a negotiating tactic aimed at getting Iran to pause its military strikes on shipping in the area," Mr Wong writes.

As ABC business correspondent David Taylor notes, the markets have largely begun to price in chaos in the Middle East.

But if this particular brand of chaos continues, drivers can expect to pay the price at the pump — especially with a range of tax concessions on diesel and petrol due to conclude by August.

Read the full story from David Taylor below.

Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 1:24pm Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 1:24pm

Oil prices jump further on fresh trading

###

By Emilia Terzon

There's been fresh trading on oil markets over the past few hours, with Brent crude and West Texas (NYMEX Light Sweet) continuing their rise.

###

By Hanan Dervisevic

Iran's Revolutionary Guard says it has targeted weapons warehouses, a satellite communications centre and housing for US forces at Bahrain's Juffair Base.

The US maintains a significant military presence in Bahrain, primarily as the headquarters of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet.

Air raid sirens have sounded in the country for the second time today, with the Ministry of Interior telling residents to take shelter.

Reporting with Reuters

Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 11:59am Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 11:59am

US attacks on Iran continue as dawn approaches

###

By Andrew Thorpe

It's almost dawn in Iran, but US attacks on the country are continuing.

Iran's semi-official Nournews agency has just reported more areas of the south-western Bushehr province are under renewed attack.

US President Donald Trump earlier flagged that American attacks would continue throughout the night and most likely resume the following evening.

Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 11:56am Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 11:56am

Government concerned about escalation in conflict in Middle East, Butler says

###

By Joshua Boscaini

Health Minister Mark Butler says Australia wants to see the conflict in the Middle East de-escalate and for there to be a ceasefire.

"We want to see the cease fire that was concluded a little while ago to remain in place while the parties, particularly the US and Iran, continue negotiations to bring this conflict to a final end," Butler says.

Asked if the government would consider extending the fuel excise cut beyond August 2, Butler says the government will look at it at the "appropriate time".

Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 11:36am Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 11:36am

Trump says MoU with Iran a 'test'

###

By Hanan Dervisevic

Speaking to conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt before the latest round of attacks, US President Donald Trump said the memorandum of understanding (MOU) reached last month was "built to test" Iran.

"The MoU was a test, and they [Iran] weren't there. They didn't honour the test.

"We had this deal settled numerous times and they never followed it."

Trump previously described the MoU as "an agreement with Iran that achieves everything we set out to accomplish … ending the current conflict, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon".

But speaking with Hewitt, he said it "didn't mean much".

"An MoU when you're dealing with sleazebags don't mean much, and they don't mean much when you're dealing with honorable people too."

Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 11:26am Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 11:26am

Iran defends attack on 'offending' super tankers

###

By Eden G Regan

The United Arab Emirates has threatened to retaliate against Iran after an attack on two tankers claimed the life of an Indian mariner and injured eight others.

Iran launched two cruise missiles at the tankers Mombasa and Al Bahiyah travelling in the southern lane ‌of the strait while in Omani territorial waters.

The dead crew member was aboard the Mombasa, the Ministry said.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards told Iranian media the two ships ignored ‌warnings, turned off ⁠navigation systems and attempted ‌to pass ‌through "a mined route".

The ‌Guards, in their statement to ⁠Iocal media, said the ‌ US was "inciting vessels to use ‌an illegal route" and ‌that cooperation with ⁠the "aggressor enemy" would result in damage, delays in reopening the ⁠strait and a global energy ‌crisis.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has defended the attack in comments to local media sources.

"Two offending super tankers were hit and disabled in the Strait of Hormuz," the IRGC said.

Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 11:26am Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 11:26am

ANALYSIS: Trump's double standard and the risk of regional deterioration

###

By Middle East correspondent Matthew Doran

Nearly a month ago, the US president was insistent Iran would not charge ships to transit through the shipping channel.

On his 80th birthday — the same day he announced an interim deal with Tehran to end the war and begin negotiations on a lasting peace — he told The New York Times the strait would be "permanently toll-free".

It was not the first time Mr Trump had insisted transit the strait should be that way, as it had been prior to the war he launched against Iran alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Mr Trump takes questions from the media in the Oval Office on Monday. (Reuters) Iranian officials had also bristled at questions over whether the regime in Tehran was planning to charge "tolls", including when asked by the ABC . Instead, spokespeople used language like "management costs".

Fast-forward to now, and the man who wrote The Art of the Deal has changed the terms of the one he had in place.

There is no denying that the players here are very different — one is a democratic, albeit deeply divided country, and the other is an oppressive theocratic regime.

But that does not explain or excuse the fact that there seems to be something of a double standard present.

Clearly frustrated, Tehran has refused to bend to Mr Trump's demands about how the shipping lane should operate. He is now insisting the US will not only control it, but bring in money by doing so.

And, for the record, it's not a "toll", according to Mr Trump — it’s a "reimbursement" of 20 per cent of the value of cargo transiting through, as fair payment for keeping the region safe.

Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has slowed again. (Reuters) The president has a habit of making threats against Iran and not totally following through.

So the next few hours and days will be crucial, particularly as the world reacts to his new demand for payment in the strait and the US military moves to reinstate its blockade of Iranian ships and ports.

The way this situation has spiralled in recent days, this could mark the beginning of an even more severe deterioration.

Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 11:17am Tue 14 Jul 2026 at 11:17am

UN agency opposes Trump's plan to impose toll on Strait of Hormuz

###

By Andrew Thorpe

The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the UN agency responsible for the safety and security of global shipping, has issued a rebuke of sorts to Donald Trump, releasing a statement reiterating its support for passage through the Strait of Hormuz to remain " free of any tolls and charges , in accordance with international law".

The statement, issued at the conclusion of the IMO council's 137th session, also condemned attacks on civilian commercial ships, and called for the de-escalation of tensions across the Middle East more broadly.

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打开原文

美伊互袭升级并冲击霍尔木兹航运

重要性5/5 高

军事升级、油轮拦截和能源出口威胁直接作用于霍尔木兹航运及原油风险溢价，时效性和事实密度均高。

来源信息

来源：Associated Press发布日期：2026-07-15归档状态：ready重要性：5/5 高评级理由：军事升级、油轮拦截和能源出口威胁直接作用于霍尔木兹航运及原油风险溢价，时效性和事实密度均高。

中文摘要

核心结论

美军恢复对伊朗港口的海上封锁，并把打击范围扩大至德黑兰、塞姆南省和霍尔木兹海峡战略岛屿；伊朗随后以导弹和无人机袭击巴林、科威特。临时停战安排进一步失效，航运受阻和地区能源出口中断风险重新上升。

重要性评级

评级：5/5（高）

报道直接记录最新军事行动、油轮拦截和伊朗对地区能源出口的威胁，与UKOIL、USOIL（原油相关行情代码）的地缘风险定价高度相关。美联社提供多地记者采集和官方声明，但部分伤亡与战果来自交战方单方面口径。

关键事实

美军恢复针对伊朗港口的海上封锁，并称在约7小时内打击数十个目标；后续袭击延伸至德黑兰周边及拥有弹道导弹生产和太空项目设施的塞姆南省。
美国中央司令部称，美军打击了霍尔木兹海峡战略要地大通布岛的伊朗防空和导弹设施。
悬挂库拉索旗的油轮Belma驶向伊朗主要石油出口枢纽哈尔克岛。美军称该船无视多次警告，随后以导弹击中烟囱并使其失去航行能力。
伊朗以导弹和无人机袭击巴林、科威特。伊朗官员称本轮美军打击已造成超过35人死亡、300多人受伤。
伊朗媒体称，美军向锡斯坦—俾路支斯坦省第388机械化步兵旅营区发射至少13枚导弹，造成7名军人死亡并有多人受伤。
美国和以色列于02/28（未给出具体时刻）对伊朗开战后，伊朗事实上封闭霍尔木兹海峡，石油、化肥及其他商品价格随之上涨。
伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队威胁，如果封锁持续，将阻止整个中东地区的油气出口；议会议长兼首席谈判代表穆罕默德·巴盖尔·卡利巴夫称伊朗已准备应对更全面的军事冲突。

作者观点与证据

报道将封锁恢复、油轮受击、双方跨境互袭和停战安排瓦解并列，判断地区可能重新滑向全面战争。支撑材料包括美国中央司令部声明、伊朗国家媒体报道、交战双方公开表态及现场照片；死亡人数、具体目标损毁和油轮收到警告的过程尚无独立核验。

与相关标的的关系

UKOIL与USOIL的关联路径来自霍尔木兹航运能力、哈尔克岛出口通道和伊朗对地区油气出口的公开威胁。报道没有提供实际通航量、出口损失、库存变化或油价数据，因此只能确认供应风险事件升级，无法量化价格影响。

时效性与限制

元数据显示文章发布于美东时间 07/14 23:25（UTC+8 07/15 11:25），正文却叙述“周四凌晨”的后续行动，页面更新时间仍是未填充占位符。正文与元数据存在时间顺序不一致，使用时需以持续更新稿处理。

后续跟踪

Belma受损程度、船员状态及是否形成长期航道管制案例。
霍尔木兹海峡实际通航量、油轮等待数量和保险费率。
哈尔克岛装运量及海湾国家能源出口设施运行情况。
临时停战安排是否恢复，以及美伊下一轮军事行动范围。

原文

US airstrikes hit northern Iran as it disables ship trying to run the blockade

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World News

US airstrikes hit northern Iran as it disables ship trying to run the blockade

1 of 6 |

The US military early Wednesday reimposed a blockade on Iranian ports over Tehran’s attacks on ships trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, sparking new strikes on nations hosting US forces as an interim deal to end the war further unraveled.

2 of 6 |

The U.S. carried out another wave of strikes on Iran as it reimposed a blockade, striking dozens of targets over seven hours, the U.S. military’s Central Command said Wednesday.

3 of 6 |

Iran’s military released video of missile launches as back-and-forth strikes between Tehran and Washington continued. U.S. Central Command said on Wednesday it struck Greater Tunb Island, targeting Iranian defense and missile sites.

4 of 6 |

5 of 6 |

A billboard depicting U.S. President Donald Trump lying on what appears to be a coffin and bearing anti-Trump messages, including the phrase “We Kill Trump,” is seen at Islamic Revolution Square in downtown Tehran, Iran, Wednesday, July 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

6 of 6 |

An army cadet walks past a billboard bearing anti-Trump messages, including the phrase “We Kill Trump,” at Islamic Revolution Square in downtown Tehran, Iran, Wednesday, July 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

US airstrikes hit northern Iran as it disables ship trying to run the blockade

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The U.S. carried out another wave of strikes on Iran as it reimposed a blockade, striking dozens of targets over seven hours, the U.S. military’s Central Command said Wednesday.

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The United States intensified its strikes targeting Iran early Thursday, hitting targets further north as American forces also fired into a ship it accused of trying to break its naval blockade on the Islamic Republic. Iran retaliated with missile and drone fire targeting Bahrain and Kuwait before dawn.

Days of back-and-forth strikes by the U.S. and Iran across the Middle East — and renewed threats to the Strait of Hormuz — have shredded the interim deal to end the Iran war and coupld tip the region back into all-out war. Already, Iranian officials say U.S. strikes have killed more than 35 people and wounded more than 300 others. Strikes also reached into Iran’s capital, Tehran, for the first time of this latest round of violence.

When the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Iran on Feb. 28, Tehran effectively closed the strait to shipping traffic — a move that sent the price of oil, fertilizer and many other goods soaring far beyond the region and gave Iran major leverage in negotiations.

US and Iran trade threats as attacks intensify

Those rising prices pose a particular challenge to U.S. President Donald Trump and his Republican Party, which hopes to retain control of Congress in elections in November. But Washington has struggled to successfully reopen the waterway, leading to Trump reimposing the naval blockade Wednesday.

Iran’s parliament speaker and lead negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said Iran was prepared for a fuller military confrontation if the U.S. does not live up to the terms of the interim deal, and Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard threatened to halt all energy exports from the Middle East over the blockade.

“The export of oil and gas from the region will be either for everyone or for no one,” the Guard said.

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Trump again insisted Iran was ready to strike a peace deal, but he did not elaborate.

“They don’t like what we’re doing, and they do want to settle. We’ll find out whether or not we settle with them, or we just finish it off,” he said Wednesday at the U.S. Army War College in Pennsylvania.

Both the US and Iran launch attacks as the blockade is reimposed

The U.S. strikes early Thursday hit around Tehran, state media reported. It also reported American attacks targeted Semnan province, home to Iran’s ballistic missile production and space program.

On Wednesday, the U.S. resumed striking Iran during daylight — further showing the increasing tempo of the attacks. Its attack on Greater Tunb Island, a strategic point in the Strait of Hormuz — targeted Iranian defense and missile sites, Central Command said.

Meanwhile, the U.S. military said it opened fire on the Curacao-flagged oil tanker Belma sailing toward Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export terminal in the Persian Gulf. After the ship “ignored multiple warnings,” a U.S. aircraft disabled the merchant vessel by firing a missile into the ship’s smokestack.

Another American strike Wednesday targeted a barracks for Iran’s 388th Mechanized Infantry Brigade, which operates tanks and armored vehicles, in Sistan and Baluchestan province, Iranian state television reported. The report said Americans fired at least 13 missiles in the attack and the seven dead included conscripts and career soldiers. A number of troops were wounded.

Our flagship newsletter breaks down the biggest headlines of the day.

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Associated Press writers Michelle Price, Konstantin Toropin, Will Weissert, Collin Binkley and Fatima Hussein in Washington, Christopher Weber in Los Angeles, and Nasser Karimi in Tehran, Iran, contributed to this report.

JON GAMBRELL

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打开原文

美国制裁伊朗跨国武器采购网络

重要性4/5 中高

官方文件提供最新制裁名单、跨国关系和金融后果，对伊朗冲突及制裁升级具有较强证据价值，但缺少可量化的能源供应影响。

来源信息

来源：U.S. Department of the Treasury发布日期：2026-07-15归档状态：ready重要性：4/5 中高评级理由：官方文件提供最新制裁名单、跨国关系和金融后果，对伊朗冲突及制裁升级具有较强证据价值，但缺少可量化的能源供应影响。

中文摘要

核心结论

美国财政部在伊朗袭击霍尔木兹海峡商船后，制裁一个横跨伊朗、尼日利亚、意大利和俄罗斯的武器采购网络。行动聚焦航空运输、金融中介和人员协调环节，意在切断伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队获取武器、物资和服务的海外路径。

重要性评级

评级：4/5（中高）

这是07/15（未给出具体时刻）发布的美国政府一手制裁文件，列明对象、法律依据和金融机构风险，可用于确认美国对伊朗施压路径已从军事封锁延伸至跨境采购与金融网络。文件属于执法机关陈述，未披露涉案交易金额、武器数量或独立司法认定。

关键事实

OFAC（美国财政部外国资产控制办公室）制裁7名个人和实体，理由是其参与支持IRGC（伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队）的国际武器采购网络。
伊朗籍Behrouz Namazi是德黑兰Nika Jet Company（尼卡捷特公司）的总经理；该公司提供飞机零部件和无人机生产、分销及维护服务。财政部称Namazi曾代表伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队寻求武器。
尼日利亚Vanguard Tactical Supply Limited（先锋战术供应有限公司）充当Namazi采购活动的中间方；居于米兰的意大利籍Dounia Ettaib被指明知并参与采购。
俄罗斯籍Mariya Vladimirovna Selina长期为伊朗从事采购，并任莫斯科航空运输企业Avratek OOO（阿夫拉泰克有限公司）财务部门负责人；Vadim Anatolyevich Druzhbin负责协调相关人员出行，且曾参与伊朗货运安排。
本轮行动承接05/08（未给出具体时刻）和06/10（未给出具体时刻）的既有制裁；此前网络涉及为伊朗机构采购MANPADS（便携式防空导弹系统）。
制裁依据为第13382号行政命令，该命令针对WMD（大规模杀伤性武器）扩散者及其支持者。美国国务院早在2007年10月已依据该命令，将伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队与弹道导弹项目关联列名。
被制裁对象在美国境内或由美国人控制的财产权益将被冻结；由一个或多个被冻结对象直接或间接合计持有50%及以上权益的实体同样自动受限。
为被制裁对象促成重大交易的外国金融机构可能面临二级制裁，包括被禁止或严格限制在美国维持代理账户或通汇账户。

作者观点与证据

财政部将该网络描述为伊朗利用境外航空和运输企业、金融通道及旅行协调人员掩盖革命卫队角色的实例。证据呈现以行政认定、人员职务和组织关系为主，原文没有公开资金流水、合同、货运单据、武器交付数量或当事方回应，因而能确认制裁范围与美国政府立场，不能独立验证全部指控细节。

与相关标的的关系

输入未指定直接相关ticker（证券代码）。该行动对原油和航运的影响属于冲突与合规成本的间接路径：金融机构、航空运输和跨境支付参与者面临更高制裁审查压力，但文件没有披露能源出口、运费、保险或供应量变化。

后续跟踪

7名被制裁对象的资产冻结、银行关系终止和跨境执法进展。
是否出现新增船运、航空、支付机构或关联持股50%以上实体名单。
05/08、06/10与本轮制裁涉及网络之间的人员和资金重叠。
外国金融机构是否因重大交易触发二级制裁。

原文

Treasury Targets Global Network Procuring Weapons for Iranian Regime

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Treasury Targets Global Network Procuring Weapons for Iranian Regime

July 15, 2026

WASHINGTON— Today, following Iran’s attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned seven individuals and entities involved in an international network supporting weapons procurement efforts on behalf of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The actors designated today exemplify Iran’s use of foreign aviation and transport firms, financial conduits, and travel coordinators to obscure the IRGC’s role in illicit procurement and to move material and personnel globally. OFAC will continue to disrupt the overseas procurement and financial networks that sustain Iran’s weapons production and proliferation efforts, which threaten Americans and U.S. partners and allies worldwide.

“President Trump has been clear that Iran must denuclearize,” said Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent . “Treasury will continue to target and disrupt the illicit procurement networks that fund Iran’s weapons programs and war machine.”

Today’s action builds on OFAC’s May 8, 2026 and June 10, 2026 designations, which targeted, among others, procurement networks that sourced weapons for the IRGC and Iran’s Center for Innovation and Technology Cooperation (CITC), including man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS). OFAC is acting pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 13382, which targets weapons of mass destruction (WMD) proliferators and their supporters. The U.S. Department of State designated the IRGC pursuant to E.O. 13382 in October 2007 in connection with Iran’s ballistic missile program, and today’s action advances National Security Presidential Memorandum 2 , which directs the U.S. government to deny the IRGC access to assets and resources that sustain its destabilizing activities.

IRGC PROCUREMENT NETWORK

Iranian national Behrouz Namazi (Namazi) is the general director of Nika Jet Company , a Tehran-based provider of services for the production, distribution, and maintenance of aircraft parts and drones. Namazi has sought to secure weapons on behalf of the IRGC. Nigeria-based Vanguard Tactical Supply Limited (Vanguard Tactical Supply) is an intermediary for Namazi’s efforts, and Milan-based Italian national Dounia Ettaib (Ettaib) is a witting participant in efforts to procure weapons for Namazi.

Russian national Mariya Vladimirovna Selina (Selina) is a longtime procurement agent for Iran. Selina is the head of the financial department at Avratek OOO (Avratek), an aviation transportation company based in Moscow, and has supported Namazi’s procurement efforts on behalf of the IRGC. Russian national Vadim Anatolyevich Druzhbin (Druzhbin) is also an employee at Avratek and has coordinated travel for Namazi and Selina. Druzhbin has previously been involved in coordinating Iranian shipments.

Namazi and Selina are being designated pursuant to E.O. 13382 for having provided, or attempted to provide, financial, material, technological or other support for, or goods or services in support of, the IRGC. Nika Jet is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13382 for being owned or controlled by, or acting or purporting to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, Namazi. Vanguard Tactical Supply, Ettaib, and Avratek are being designated pursuant to E.O. 13382 for having provided, or attempted to provide, financial, material, technological or other support for, or goods or services in support of, Namazi. Druzhbin is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13382 for acting or purporting to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, Avratek.

SANCTIONS IMPLICATIONS

As a result of today’s action, all property and interests in property of the designated or blocked persons described above that are in the United States or in the possession or control of U.S. persons are blocked and must be reported to OFAC. In addition, any entities that are owned, directly or indirectly, individually or in the aggregate, 50 percent or more by one or more blocked persons are also blocked. Unless authorized by OFAC, or exempt, OFAC’s regulations generally prohibit all transactions by U.S. persons or within (or transiting) the United States that involve any property or interests in property of blocked persons.

Violations of U.S. sanctions may result in the imposition of civil or criminal penalties on U.S. and foreign persons. OFAC may impose civil penalties for sanctions violations on a strict liability basis. OFAC’s Economic Sanctions Enforcement Guidelines provide more information regarding OFAC’s enforcement of U.S. economic sanctions. In addition, financial institutions and other persons may risk exposure to sanctions for engaging in certain transactions or activities involving designated or otherwise blocked persons. The prohibitions include the making of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services by, to, or for the benefit of any designated or blocked person, or the receipt of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services from any such person. Non-U.S. persons are also prohibited from causing or conspiring to cause U.S. persons to wittingly or unwittingly violate U.S. sanctions, as well as engaging in conduct that evades U.S. sanctions. Individuals located in the U.S. or abroad who provide information about sanctions violations to FinCEN’s whistleblower incentive program may be eligible for awards if the information they provide leads to a successful enforcement action that results in monetary penalties exceeding $1,000,000.

Furthermore, engaging in certain transactions involving the persons designated today may risk the imposition of secondary sanctions on participating foreign financial institutions. OFAC can prohibit or impose strict conditions on opening or maintaining, in the United States, a correspondent account or a payable-through account of a foreign financial institution that knowingly conducts or facilitates any significant transaction on behalf of a person who is designated pursuant to the relevant authority.

The power and integrity of OFAC sanctions derive not only from OFAC’s ability to designate and add persons to the SDN List, but also from its willingness to remove persons from the SDN List consistent with the law. The ultimate goal of sanctions is not to punish, but to bring about a positive change in behavior. For information concerning the process for seeking removal from an OFAC list, including the SDN List, or to submit a request, please refer to OFAC’s guidance on Filing a Petition for Removal from an OFAC List .

Click here for more information on the persons designated today .

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沃什首份国会证词重申抗通胀立场

重要性5/5 高

美联储主席首次国会证词直接影响利率、资产负债表和风险资产政策预期，并提供人工智能投资及经济状态的重要一手判断。

来源信息

来源：Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System发布日期：2026-07-14归档状态：ready重要性：5/5 高评级理由：美联储主席首次国会证词直接影响利率、资产负债表和风险资产政策预期，并提供人工智能投资及经济状态的重要一手判断。

中文摘要

核心结论

美联储主席凯文·沃什在首次国会证词中重申对持续高通胀零容忍，并支持6月将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%至3.75%的决定。他同时宣布从沟通、资产负债表、数据、生产率与就业、通胀框架五个方向系统审查货币政策机制。

重要性评级

评级：5/5（高）

证词来自美联储主席和官方一手文本，直接给出政策立场、经济判断及制度审查范围。内容未提供下一次利率调整的时点或条件，因此政策信号强，短期路径仍需结合后续数据和联邦公开市场委员会文件判断。

关键事实

沃什表示，美联储的首要目标是正确制定货币政策，并称委员会对持续高通胀“零容忍”，长期基础通胀主要由货币政策决定。
6月会议将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%至3.75%；这是沃什担任主席后主持的首次会议。
美联储判断经济活动保持稳健扩张：家庭消费温和增长，制造业产出今年持续上升，住房部门仍然落后。
截至第一季度的一年内，设备投资增长约8%；其中高科技支出按四季度口径增长近25%，主要动力来自数据中心建设以及AI（人工智能）设备和软件需求。
沃什称人工智能建设对整体经济的最终收益仍不确定，美联储正在监测其对通胀和劳动力市场的影响。
劳动力市场被描述为大体稳定：就业增长与劳动力增幅相匹配，失业率较低且过去一年变化不大，裁员较少，职位空缺率波动有限，名义工资保持稳健增长。
五个专项工作组将分别评估政策沟通、充足准备金制度与资产持有结构、新数据和方法、通用技术对生产率与就业的影响，以及现有通胀模型和框架。
证词于07/14（未给出具体时刻）提交众议院金融服务委员会；沃什于07/15（未给出具体时刻）向参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会提交相同讲稿。

作者观点与证据

沃什的立场偏向强化价格稳定责任，同时把制度改革置于明确议程。证据包括当前利率区间、设备投资和高科技支出增速、住房疲弱及劳动力市场指标的方向性描述。证词未列出通胀具体读数、就业新增人数、失业率数值、预测路径或工作组完成时间，无法据此确定下一次政策行动。

与相关标的的关系

输入未列出直接相关ticker（证券代码），但证词对美国国债收益率、美元、成长股估值、银行流动性和广泛风险资产均有政策关联。高科技投资近25%的增长支持人工智能资本开支仍强的事实背景；对充足准备金制度和资产组合的审查，则可能影响未来资产负债表政策预期，目前尚无实施方案。

后续跟踪

后续通胀、就业、工资和消费数据是否支持“稳健增长、劳动力稳定”的判断。
联邦公开市场委员会对3.50%至3.75%利率区间的分歧及政策条件表述。
五个工作组的成员、时间表、建议和正式采纳程序。
数据中心与高科技设备投资能否持续，以及其生产率和通胀影响。

原文

Testimony by Chairman Warsh on the semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress

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Testimony

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July 14, 2026

Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress

Chairman Kevin Warsh

Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives

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Chairman Warsh submitted identical remarks to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, on July 15, 2026.

Chairman Hill, Ranking Member Waters, and other members of the Committee—good morning.

It's a privilege to join you. At my first appearance before this panel, I am particularly honored to represent my superb colleagues throughout the Federal Reserve System.

In submitting the Board's Monetary Policy Report , I think of a long line of central bank chiefs who came before Congress in keeping with the Federal Reserve Act. I think also of earlier efforts, going back to the time of the Framers, to create a central bank that would endure and serve the nation's founding principles.

One of the large figures in the Federal Reserve's history is Alan Greenspan, who passed away last month after a century of life. By my count, my friend appeared before Congress more than two hundred times, displaying his agile mind and his distinctive way with words. We at the Fed recall the Chairman's strong and steady hand in a period of rapid economic change. And we honor his memory.

As a country, we just marked our 250th year. And when Americans count our blessings, we can include an economy predicated on the brilliance of our constitutional design and system of ordered liberty—an economy without equal in all it's done for human flourishing.

Some forms of Fed communications are discretionary, but not this one—and for good reason. It is a prudent and wisely conceived obligation, designed to keep the Fed accountable, responsible, and faithful to its congressional mandate of full employment and price stability. These obligations are of a piece with the Fed's rightful independence in the conduct of monetary policy.

Today we are at a hinge point in history. It's up to all of us to meet this moment. The task of this generation of policymakers—and of individuals throughout the private sector—is to ensure the American economy excels far into the future.

The Fed's number one objective is to get monetary policy right—or as near to it as we possibly can. That is our clear and constant aim, the star we steer by. And if we get policy right—and we will—the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past.

A month ago, I chaired my first meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. My colleagues and I recognize that high inflation has been an undue burden on American households and businesses. While monthly price fluctuations are inevitable—especially in an unsettled world—underlying inflation over longer time horizons is determined largely by monetary policy.

The members of our Committee have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation. And we share a resolute commitment to restoring price stability. This was the focus of our June meeting, at which we decided to hold the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.

Naturally, our work at the Fed demands a proper reading on economic conditions. As you see in our Monetary Policy Report , economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, showing resilience in the face of recent developments. Household consumption growth is moderate. Manufacturing output has moved up steadily this year. The housing sector, however, gives a different picture and continues to lag.

The most striking feature of the economy right now is business investment. The rapid pace—which appears to be accelerating—reflects, in large part, the construction of data centers and the immense demand for the AI-related equipment and software that fill them. Investment in equipment overall increased about 8 percent for the year ending in the first quarter. Within that category, high-tech spending logged an especially impressive growth rate of nearly 25 percent on a four-quarter basis. We don't know the extent to which the economy will benefit from the AI buildout. Yet it seems inevitable that what is now called "AI investment" will soon be called just "investment." Even so, new opportunities for the economy introduce new challenges for policymakers. We at the Fed are monitoring the implications for inflation and the labor market.

That brings me to the supply side, where productivity growth has been strong, predating gains from AI adoption. America's labor market appears broadly stable. Job creation has kept pace with the workforce. The unemployment rate is low and has changed little over the past year. We're seeing relatively few layoffs, only slight variance in the rate of job vacancies, and solid growth in nominal wages.

I came to my new position as a believer in the best traditions of the Federal Reserve. The performance of our nation's central bank depends on a commitment to excellence, professionalism, and integrity. Humility about what we know—and the courage to revisit our prior views—are also hallmarks of a great institution like ours. All of these standards define the culture of the Fed, and it's my responsibility to uphold them.

I am heartened by the welcome I've received and by the encouragement of my colleagues in considering how best to advance the conduct of policy. We have a duty to point the institution forward—to take a fresh look at current practices to make sure we are serving our objectives.

And we are going about it systematically. I have appointed a task force in each of five areas that are central to the broad conduct of monetary policy. We have engaged some of the very best minds, from inside and outside the economics profession. They are supported by specialists from the Fed's expert staff. The task forces have been given a straightforward charge: Start with first principles, ask hard questions, examine current practices, consider alternatives, and, ultimately, propose next steps for policymaker consideration. The purpose here is to equip the Fed to make better decisions in monetary policy and to put these years of high inflation behind us.

The first task force will assess the form and function of Fed communications. It will ask: What is the efficacy, and what are the risks, of how we currently deliberate and convey our policy choices?

The second task force will review the Fed's balance sheet policies, including the ample-reserves regime and the composition of asset holdings. It will ask: What are the advantages and disadvantages of that regime, and what are the alternatives?

The third task force will evaluate new data sources and consider methodological changes to improve the information upon which we rely. It will ask: How do we ensure that policymakers are receiving accurate, relevant, contemporaneous, actionable data on the state of our economy?

Our task force on productivity and jobs will survey the pace, reach, and impact of new general-purpose technologies. We've experienced technological advances all our lives. But given the scale of investment—and potential changes in the method and speed of innovation—we might be seeing changes of a different order. The task force will survey the landscape and ask: What do these changes mean for America's productive capacity and for American workers? And what are the implications for the Fed in pursuit of our employment and inflation mandates?

Finally, the task force on inflation frameworks will examine the drivers of inflation and weigh a range of ideas for delivering price stability. This group will ask: Do our models and our thinking provide an empirically robust view of prices and outputs in our dynamic economy? Can we do better?

We are starting a new chapter at the Federal Reserve at a consequential time for our nation. It's been a privilege to return to the Fed and to work again with so many talented and dedicated people I'm fortunate to call my colleagues.

I can report to you that we intend to be fit for purpose and focused on the future. We are the Federal Reserve, and we are as determined as ever to fulfill the mission that Congress has given us.

Thank you, and I welcome your questions.

霍尔木兹冲突推高美国燃油成本

重要性5/5 高

数据新近、直接关联原油标的，并以燃油价格、航运量和家庭额外支出呈现能源冲击向美国通胀扩散的路径。

来源信息

来源：Associated Press发布日期：2026-07-20归档状态：ready重要性：5/5 高评级理由：数据新近、直接关联原油标的，并以燃油价格、航运量和家庭额外支出呈现能源冲击向美国通胀扩散的路径。

中文摘要

核心结论

美国与伊朗恢复交火后，霍尔木兹海峡运输再度受阻，美国普通汽油全国均价于07/20（未给出具体时刻）重返每加仑4美元上方。原油、炼化和运输成本正在向居民消费与企业物流扩散，供应链恢复可能延续至2027年。

重要性评级

评级：5/5（高）

文章提供油价冲击向美国通胀和选举议题传导的最新量化证据，并直接关联UKOIL（英国布伦特原油代码）与USOIL（美国原油代码）。美联社报道结合AAA（美国汽车协会）、标普全球能源和布朗大学数据，事实密度较高。

关键事实

AAA数据显示，美国普通汽油全国均价于07/20（未给出具体时刻）升至每加仑4美元以上，一周上涨约13美分；2025年同期约为3.14美元。
加利福尼亚州汽油均价接近每加仑5.50美元，夏威夷州约5.42美元，华盛顿州约5.01美元；印第安纳州和密西西比州分别约3.35美元和3.57美元。
Brent（布伦特原油）07/20（未给出具体时刻）在每桶约86—91美元之间波动，7月初约为72美元；3月曾接近120美元。
美国汽油均价5月一度超过每加仑4.50美元，创四年高位；7月早些时候曾回落至3.79美元。
霍尔木兹海峡在和平时期承载全球约五分之一的石油运输。标普全球能源称，海峡船舶通行量上周较前一周下降50%，主流船东仍谨慎避开该水道。
标普全球能源预计，即使战事结束，波斯湾石油产量最快也要到2027年第一季度才能完全恢复。
美国柴油均价升至每加仑近5.11美元，一周前为4.88美元。布朗大学沃森国际与公共事务学院估算，战争开始以来美国家庭仅汽油和柴油就额外支出约711亿美元。
燃油冲击已扩散至货运、食品、机票、化肥及部分消费品价格，并对依赖中东进口的亚洲和非洲经济体形成更强压力。

作者观点与证据

文章判断，停火协议破裂和海峡运输停滞重新激活了全球能源供应风险。支撑材料包括AAA零售燃油价格、布伦特原油区间、标普全球能源的船舶通行数据及产能恢复预测、布朗大学的家庭额外成本估算。白宫声称削弱伊朗袭船能力后油气价格将回到冲突前水平，但文章未提供支持这一预测的执行时间表；2027年产量恢复时间同样属于机构预测。

与相关标的的关系

UKOIL与USOIL直接承受霍尔木兹通航、波斯湾产量和战争升级形成的供应风险溢价。文章还显示原油价格变化会滞后传导至炼厂采购和零售汽柴油，因而可用于观察能源冲击进入美国消费者价格与运输成本的路径。

时效性与限制

文章发布于美东时间 07/20 04:55（UTC+8 07/20 16:55），采集于美东时间 07/21 22:44（UTC+8 07/22 10:44）。全国均价掩盖了各州税率、供应距离和炼化条件差异；船舶通行量仅比较相邻两周，供应链恢复期限也可能随军事与外交进展调整。

后续跟踪

霍尔木兹海峡船舶通行量及主流船东复航情况。
布伦特原油、美国原油与零售汽柴油价格之间的传导时滞。
波斯湾石油生产和出口恢复进度。
燃油成本向食品、货运、机票及美国通胀指标的扩散幅度。

原文

US gas prices back up to an average of $4 a gallon again as the US and Iran launch attacks

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US gas prices back up to an average of $4 a gallon again as the US and Iran launch attacks

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Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, talks about gas prices climbing back up to an average of $4 a gallon as the US and Iran war continues. (AP video: Laura Bargfeld)

2 of 2 |

Gas pumps are seen at a gas station in Buffalo Grove, Thursday, June 25, 2026. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

US gas prices back up to an average of $4 a gallon again as the US and Iran launch attacks

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Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, talks about gas prices climbing back up to an average of $4 a gallon as the US and Iran war continues. (AP video: Laura Bargfeld)

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Gas pumps are seen at a gas station in Buffalo Grove, Thursday, June 25, 2026. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

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Gas pumps are seen at a gas station in Buffalo Grove, Thursday, June 25, 2026. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

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NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. gas prices jumped back to $4 a gallon on average Monday, as Washington’s latest fighting with Iran renews strain on the flow of fuel worldwide.

According to motor club AAA, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is now just above the $4 mark. That’s about 13 cents more expensive than it was a week ago, and far higher than where prices at the pump stood at this time last year, when American drivers could fill up for about $3.14 a gallon on average.

The U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran plunged the world into a global energy crisis, notably as the cost of crude oil — the main ingredient in gasoline — soared due to supply chain and production disruptions across the Middle East.

Energy prices cooled last month when Washington and Tehran reached an interim agreement aimed at permanently ending their fighting and reviving traffic in the key Strait of Hormuz . But that peace deal has now crumbled — with the U.S. on Monday only intensifying airstrikes against Iran , which has responded by launching its own attacks on American allies in the region. And oil flows are largely stalling again.

Many eyes are on the White House. Before co-launching the war in late February, President Donald Trump once bragged about keeping gas prices low — and expressed frustration about them not falling as quickly as the cost of crude oil last month. If prices continue to rebound, expensive gas will likely be at the top of voters’ minds during the midterm elections this November.

Here’s what we know.

Where gas prices stand today

Again, U.S. gas prices are now back at the $4 mark. But that figure is a national average, meaning drivers in some states have been paying well over $4 a gallon for a while now, while others pay less.

California on Monday continued to see the most expensive gas, with an average of nearly $5.50 a gallon — followed by almost $5.42 in Hawaii and $5.01 in Washington state, per AAA. Meanwhile, states like Indiana and Mississippi have averages closer to $3.35 and $3.57, respectively. Prices vary between due to factors ranging from nearby supply to differing tax rates.

Crude oil is the main ingredient in gasoline, and its cost makes up the bulk of what consumers pay at the pump. There’s a bit of a delay because refineries buy crude in advance, and deliveries of that oil take time. But the latest gas prices follow an uptick in oil costs seen over recent weeks. The price of Brent crude, the international standard, swung between roughly $86 to $91 a barrel Monday — compared to closer to $72 at the start of July.

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Oil has been volatile throughout the course of the war, with prices soaring more rapidly in the conflict’s early days. In March, Brent climbed as high as nearly $120 per barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. gas prices hit a four-year record of more than $4.50 a gallon in May.

The national average fell to as low as $3.79 a gallon earlier this month. And the latest turnaround is bringing whiplash to some drivers.

“I am down to the last drops of gas,” said Litza Mavrothalasitis, a Chicago resident, when filling her tank on Monday, adding that she was shocked to see how high it had gone up again. “It was just unbelievable. I thought we were finally settling down.”

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Jacob Fisher, another Chicago resident who was buying gas on Monday, added that thinking about what’s behind these higher fuel costs “makes me angry.”

“Senseless war in Iran, and our current administration is fueling a lot of this — and it’s terrible,” Fisher said. “It is not serving the American people. Nor does it serve anywhere in the entire world.”

White House’s response and the road ahead

White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said in a statement Monday that “oil and gas prices will plummet back to pre-conflict levels” as the U.S. military degrades Iran’s ability to attack vessels and disrupt trade in the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly a fifth of the world’s oil sailed through during peacetime.

“President Trump remains committed to unleashing American energy dominance, cutting costs, and putting more money back in the pockets of hardworking American families,” Rogers added.

Still, the escalation of attacks and confusion over future control of Hormuz has fueled uncertainty. All the while, traffic in the key waterway has stalled — with analysts from S&P Global Energy noting Monday that vessel crossings fell 50% last week compared to the week prior.

“The continued predominance of Iran-linked and sanctioned vessels suggests mainstream shipowners remain cautious about transiting the waterway,” the analysts added.

Even if fighting ends, experts have repeatedly warned it could take months, if not longer, for supply chains to return to prewar levels. Last month, S&P Global Energy said it did not expect Persian Gulf oil production to rebound fully until at least the first quarter of 2027.

Gas isn’t the only necessity getting more expensive

Beyond gasoline, fuel like diesel — which powers many freight and long-haul trucks — is also back on the rise. On Monday, diesel averaged at nearly $5.11 a gallon in the U.S., per AAA, up from $4.88 just a week ago.

American households have already collectively paid nearly $71.1 billion in extra costs for gas and diesel alone since the war began, according to an online tracker from Brown University’s Watson School of International and Public Affairs.

Beyond pain at the pump, higher fuel prices raise transportation costs across businesses. And shortages of other core necessities — like fertilizer — have also worsened amid the war. Groceries, airline tickets and even goods like condoms and shoes have gotten more expensive in recent months.

Supply shocks have been even starker in places that rely more heavily on imports from the Middle East — notably countries across Asia and Africa .

______

AP journalists Laura Bargfeld in Chicago and Matthew Daly in Washington contributed to this report.

WYATTE GRANTHAM-PHILIPS

Grantham-Philips is a business reporter who covers trending news for The Associated Press. She is based in New York.

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打开原文

空袭难解霍尔木兹控制僵局

重要性5/5 高

报道距日报日期仅一天，直接解释霍尔木兹通航风险的持续机制，并补充空袭效果、外交空间和曼德海峡联动风险。

来源信息

来源：Associated Press发布日期：2026-07-21归档状态：ready重要性：5/5 高评级理由：报道距日报日期仅一天，直接解释霍尔木兹通航风险的持续机制，并补充空袭效果、外交空间和曼德海峡联动风险。

中文摘要

核心结论

美国和伊朗持续以空袭、导弹及无人机行动争夺霍尔木兹海峡控制权，但美国此前六周打击约1.3万个目标仍未迫使伊朗让步。空中打击短期难以恢复航运，互信不足也压缩外交空间，能源运输风险可能继续维持。

重要性评级

评级：5/5（高）

文章在日报前一日发布，直接解释霍尔木兹海峡风险为何难以快速消退，并把军事能力、外交信号和红海航运风险放入同一框架。相关事实对UKOIL（英国布伦特原油代码）和USOIL（美国原油代码）的风险评估具有直接意义。

关键事实

美国与伊朗恢复每日打击；伊朗于07/21（未给出具体时刻）袭击霍尔木兹海峡一艘油轮，迫使船员弃船。
美国国务卿马可·鲁比奥称华盛顿仍愿谈判，但指责伊朗继续以导弹和无人机攻击海峡船只。霍尔木兹海峡在正常时期承载全球约五分之一的石油运输。
一名未获公开发言授权的美国官员称，美军将持续打击伊朗，直至总统特朗普作出其他决定；谈判也会同时继续。
华盛顿近东政策研究所研究员戴维·申克称，美国在战争最初六周攻击了约1.3万个目标，仍未迫使伊朗屈服。
战争于02/28（未给出具体时刻）开始时，美国与以色列首先打击预先识别的固定目标；伊朗此前已分散并隐藏弹道导弹、巡航导弹和小型飞行器。
多名受访专家认为，美国仍有能力继续轰炸，伊朗也有能力让海峡保持关闭或接近关闭；地面行动在美国公众和国会中缺乏支持。
特朗普、鲁比奥及伊朗官员近期均释放有限谈判意愿。伊朗上周允许一名此前受限离境的伊朗裔美国女性离开，也被专家视为善意信号。
也门胡塞武装07/20（未给出具体时刻）宣布对沙特阿拉伯实施海上禁运；若升级为全面封锁曼德海峡，波斯湾与红海两条能源航运通道可能同时受扰。

作者观点与证据

文章倾向于认为，依赖升级空袭迫使伊朗改变立场的策略效果有限。主要证据是六周约1.3万个目标遭打击后伊朗仍能袭击船只和地区内美军基地，以及武器分散隐藏降低了后续空袭效率。外交空间的判断来自美伊官员表态、伊朗放行人员等迹象，但大部分分析由智库研究员和前官员提供，属于专家判断；美国持续打击计划来自匿名官员。

与相关标的的关系

UKOIL与USOIL的供应风险取决于霍尔木兹海峡能否稳定通航。空袭未能消除伊朗的导弹、无人机及封锁能力，意味着海峡风险溢价缺少快速退出条件；若曼德海峡也遭全面封锁，石油运输绕行、保险和运费压力可能进一步上升。

时效性与限制

文章发布于美东时间 07/21 00:01（UTC+8 07/21 12:01），采集于美东时间 07/21 22:44（UTC+8 07/22 10:44）。报道中的外交开放程度主要依据公开表态和专家解读，尚无正式谈判安排；匿名官员的说法无法独立核验，1.3万个目标也未按设施类型或实际毁伤效果拆分。

后续跟踪

霍尔木兹海峡油轮遇袭、船员撤离及实际通航情况。
美国空袭目标、伊朗导弹和无人机发射能力的变化。
美伊是否形成正式谈判渠道及可验证的停火条款。
胡塞武装海上禁运是否扩大至曼德海峡全面封锁。

原文

US and Iran dig in over the Strait of Hormuz, showing the limits of intensifying airstrikes

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US and Iran dig in over the Strait of Hormuz, showing the limits of intensifying airstrikes

The United States conducted yet-another round of airstrikes targeting Iran on Tuesday. The strikes came as Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship.

BEN FINLEY and FARNOUSH AMIRI

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WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. and Iran are back to bombing every day in a bid to control the Strait of Hormuz . And neither is backing down, showing the limitations of President Donald Trump’s reliance on escalating airstrikes to bend Tehran to his will.

While the Trump administration says it is open to diplomacy , Iran so far has refused to loosen its grip over the crucial oil shipping corridor in the Persian Gulf. It is raising questions about the strategy for the next phase of the conflict as intensifying attacks have collapsed an interim ceasefire deal , left additional American troops dead and sent U.S. gasoline prices back up — posing new problems for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections.

Even with glimmers of hope for talks, the sides could be headed back to all-out war , with Trump warning that “every time Iran kills an American Soldier” going forward, “they will pay for that killing many times over.”

The renewed escalations reflect “a fundamental misreading of the Iranian psyche and a lack of learning” from previous fighting, said Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“I think it’s driven by a calculus on either side that they can double down on military escalation as a way of breaking the impasse and getting the other side to relent,” Yacoubian said. “The danger, of course, is that the more escalatory it becomes, the harder it will be to seize any potential opening back to diplomacy.”

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The Trump administration says the door to diplomacy is open

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. is still open to negotiating , telling reporters Sunday night that Iran continues “to send signals that they want to talk, that they want to negotiate, but their behavior is what we’re responding to. And their behavior is they’re launching missiles and drones at ships” in the Strait of Hormuz , where a fifth of the world’s oil normally passes.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks to reporters before departing Joint Base Andrews, Md., Sunnday, July 19, 2026, en route to Manila, Philippines to attend the 59th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting. (Brendan Smialowski, Pool via AP)

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“The United States always remains open to a diplomatic solution, and we’ve tried multiple times with Iran, and we’ll continue to try,” he said. “If that door opens, we’ll be happy to see it open.”

Trump is focused on making Iran pay for the recent deaths of U.S. troops , violations of the interim deal reached last month and attacks on ships in the strait, according to a U.S. official, who was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

The official said that military strikes on Iran would continue until Trump decides otherwise, but that talks between the countries also would go on.

For some outside observers, the administration appears to be struggling to find an off-ramp , both militarily and diplomatically.

“This administration currently is flustered,” said Alan Eyre, a former U.S. diplomat once involved in past nuclear negotiations with Tehran and now a fellow at the Middle East Institute. “It really doesn’t have a coherent and consistent strategy as to how to extricate itself from this quagmire.”

There are some limitations to Trump’s air war

The U.S. military can only accomplish so much as it ramps up attacks on Iran , experts say.

The conflict has demonstrated the limits of relying solely on air power, said Christopher Preble, a scholar at the Stimson Center think tank focused on U.S. foreign policy. But he noted that sending in ground troops would be unpopular with many Americans and members of Congress.

“It seems that President Trump certainly has the capability to continue to bomb, and Iran will have the capability to continue to keep the strait closed — or closed well enough,” Preble said.

David Schenker, a former official in the first Trump administration who is now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the renewed strikes on Iranian infrastructure are a repeat of attacks during the early weeks of the war. And those did not result in Iran’s capitulation.

“The U.S. hit 13,000 targets in the first 6 weeks of the war, and this didn’t sway Iran to take a knee,” he said.

Retired Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, who served under President Joe Biden, said previous wars such as Vietnam showed the limitations of air power alone.

“Generally, you have to couple air power with ground operations, sometimes naval operations as well, and certainly space today,” he said.

When launching the war on Feb. 28, the U.S. and Israel struck many fixed targets identified before the conflict began. But Iran had a long time to prepare for the attacks by concealing and dispersing weapons.

“So the easy targets are pretty much gone,” Kendall said. “They can hide ballistic missiles and cruise missiles and small air vehicles pretty easily. So it’s a very hard job to try to suppress that kind of a threat over a period of time. And that’s why they’re still able to attack not just ships in the Straits, but also our bases in the region and so on.”

Diplomacy has struggled with a lack of trust between the US and Iran

A diplomatic solution also could prove elusive.

Eyre, of the Middle East Institute, said the Trump administration has shown no preference for “actual diplomacy,” relying instead on close advisers with little international relations experience while outsourcing some of the work to mediators such as Qatar, Pakistan and Egypt.

“We’ve got a tough road ahead of us, but it theoretically could be done,” Eyre said of potential negotiations to end the conflict. “Unfortunately, there is so little mutual confidence in the other side. There’s so little bilateral trust between the U.S. and Iran that it makes everything so much harder.”

Both Schenker and Yacoubian said recent comments from Trump, Rubio and their Iranian counterparts reflect some openness to diplomacy.

Yacoubian pointed to the “measured” response from Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to the recent killing of U.S. service members in Jordan , indicating a possibility for an off-ramp. Iran’s release last week of an Iranian-American woman who had not been allowed to leave the country also showed a sign of goodwill from Tehran, she said.

But these small, positive signals could quickly become moot if the decision by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels Monday to announce a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia expands to a complete shutdown of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

That, Yacoubian says, could constitute “a perfect storm of disruption” for the already precarious global economy.

___

Amiri reported from New York. Associated Press writers Aamer Madhani and Michelle L. Price contributed to this report.

FARNOUSH AMIRI

Amiri covers foreign policy and the United Nations as a correspondent for The Associated Press, based in New York.

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打开原文

美伊战火扩向两大能源航道

重要性5/5 高

报道发布时间新，直接覆盖两大能源航道、原油价格与军事升级，事实密度和标的关联度均高；部分交战方及匿名消息仍待验证。

来源信息

来源：Associated Press发布日期：2026-07-21归档状态：ready重要性：5/5 高评级理由：报道发布时间新，直接覆盖两大能源航道、原油价格与军事升级，事实密度和标的关联度均高；部分交战方及匿名消息仍待验证。

中文摘要

核心结论

美军完成对伊朗连续第11夜打击，霍尔木兹海峡航运仍近乎停滞，胡塞武装又将封锁威胁扩至红海入口曼德海峡。军事升级压过巴基斯坦斡旋，国际原油升破每桶92美元，美国普通汽油均价升至每加仑4美元。

重要性评级

评级：5/5（高）

报道直接连接美伊战事、两条关键航道和油价，发布时间距本批采集不足一天。美联社综合军方、政府、航运机构及现场信息，但部分伤亡与胡塞行动来自匿名或单方消息。

关键事实

美国中央司令部称，美军完成连续第11夜空袭，目标包括飞机库和无人机储存设施；伊朗官方媒体报告多省发生爆炸。
战前约五分之一的全球原油和天然气经霍尔木兹海峡运输。持续空袭尚未解除伊朗对该航道的控制。
国际原油价格在07/22（未给出具体时刻）升至每桶92美元以上，美国普通汽油均价达到每加仑4美元。
伊朗革命卫队宣称对07/21（未给出具体时刻）阿曼附近油轮遇袭负责，船员被迫弃船；其还宣称对07/20（未给出具体时刻）另外两起船舶袭击负责。
美国中央司令部称，截至07/21（未给出具体时刻），美军为执行海峡封锁已改变8艘商船航向，并使1艘商船失去行动能力。
胡塞武装宣布对沙特实施海上封锁。胡塞控制的萨巴通讯社称6艘红海船只收到警告后改道，美联社尚无法独立证实。
曼德海峡通常承载约12%的全球贸易和四分之一的全球集装箱贸易；沙特在霍尔木兹海峡受阻后依靠通往红海的管道出口每日数百万桶石油。
一名匿名美国官员称，美军伤员已超过500人，高于国防部系统记录的482人；该官员将差异归因于登记滞后。

作者观点与证据

报道把战局描述为对霍尔木兹海峡控制权的争夺，并认为航运中断、民用基础设施遇袭和红海威胁共同扩大能源供应风险。支撑材料包括美国中央司令部行动通报、英国海上贸易行动办公室的油轮遇袭报告、伊朗国家媒体消息及现货能源价格。胡塞方面关于6艘船改道的说法缺少独立确认，伤员总数也依赖匿名官员。

与相关标的的关系

UKOIL（布伦特原油基准代码）和USOIL（美国西德州中质原油基准代码）与报道直接相关。霍尔木兹海峡承担约五分之一的全球油气运输，曼德海峡又关系苏伊士航线和沙特替代出口通道；两处同时受扰会影响原油可运输量、运费和风险溢价。文章只给出国际原油高于92美元，未分别提供两个基准的报价与涨幅。

时效性与限制

文章发布于美东时间 07/21 03:44（UTC+8 07/21 15:44），采集于美东时间 07/21 22:44（UTC+8 07/22 10:44）。战况与航道状态变化迅速，文中军方及交战方声明需要后续航运流量、船舶定位和独立伤亡数据验证。

后续跟踪

霍尔木兹海峡每日通航量及被改道、扣留或袭击的船舶数量。
曼德海峡和红海航运公司实际改道范围。
巴基斯坦斡旋能否恢复临时停火安排。
皮卡克斯山附近核设施是否遭袭，以及伊朗后续反应。

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US military completes 11th night of strikes on Iran as attacks overshadow diplomacy

1 of 8 |

President Donald Trump said the U.S. will soon strike the area near Pickaxe Mountain, an underground site near one of Iran’s main nuclear facilities. He also said the U.S. has “no interest” in further talks with Iran until it’s ready to meet “in a meaningful way.”

2 of 8 |

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met Tuesday with Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni and reiterated Islamabad’s offer to serve as an “honest and sincere mediator” to help ease tensions in the Gulf as diplomatic efforts intensified to halt the renewed Iran-U.S. conflict.

3 of 8 |

Bab el-Mandeb, at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is the gateway to the Red Sea through which around 12% of the world’s trade usually passes. A fourth of global container trade transits through the 32-kilometer (20-mile)-wide strait to and from the Suez Canal. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked. (AP video shot by Bassam Hatoum)

4 of 8 |

In this photo released by the Inter Services Public Relations, Iran’s Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni, left, shakes hand with Pakistan’s Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir prior to their meeting in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, Tuesday, July 21, 2026. (Inter Services Public Relations via AP)

5 of 8 |

In this photo released by the Pakistan Prime Minister Office, Iran’s Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni, left, meets with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, right, in Islamabad, Pakistan, Tuesday, July 21, 2026. (Pakistan Prime Minister Office via AP)

6 of 8 |

In this photo released by the Inter Services Public Relations, Iran’s Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni, left, meets with Pakistan’s Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, Tuesday, July 21, 2026. (Inter Services Public Relations via AP)

7 of 8 |

A woman walks past a mural depicting a portrait of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the U.S. and Israel strike on Feb. 28, in downtown Tehran, Iran, Saturday, July 18, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

8 of 8 |

People stand on a bridge destroyed after a strike in Hormozgan province, southern Iran, Saturday, July 18, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/Iranian Students’ News Agency via AP)

US military completes 11th night of strikes on Iran as attacks overshadow diplomacy

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People stand on a bridge destroyed after a strike in Hormozgan province, southern Iran, Saturday, July 18, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/Iranian Students’ News Agency via AP)

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People stand on a bridge destroyed after a strike in Hormozgan province, southern Iran, Saturday, July 18, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/Iranian Students’ News Agency via AP)

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JON GAMBRELL and MUNIR AHMED

Updated [hour]:[minute] [AMPM] [timezone], [monthFull] [day], [year]

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The U.S. military said it completed the 11th night of strikes on Iran early Wednesday as attacks across the Middle East overshadowed diplomatic efforts in Pakistan to salvage an interim ceasefire deal that has collapsed .

U.S. Central Command said targets included aircraft hangars and drone storage sites. The newest barrage came after President Donald Trump telegraphed that strikes would be intensifying.

Before the latest strikes, Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni visited Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, seeking to revamp diplomacy. But it was unclear what new arrangement might be reached to end the war , which lately has become a battle for control over the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway vital to world energy supplies.

Speaking from the Oval Office on Tuesday, Trump gave a dim view on possible talks, saying the U.S. had “no interest in meeting.” He signaled that U.S. forces could soon target an area of Iran close to one of its main sites for enriching uranium .

With negotiations and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz largely stalled, both sides have sought to gain leverage by targeting civilian infrastructure in the region relied on by millions of people.

A barrage of U.S. strikes hasn’t loosened Iran’s grip on the strait , through which about one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and natural gas was shipped before the war.

The U.S. continued its airstrikes into Wednesday, with Iranian air defenses activating near the capital, Tehran. Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency reported that explosions rocked Bushehr, East Azerbaijan, Hamadan, Hormozgan, Khuzestan and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces.

That came after Iran attacked a tanker in the strait Tuesday, forcing the crew to abandon the ship. Iran also kept up attacks against U.S. allies in the region. Iran also launched attacks against Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait.

The escalation pushed energy prices higher. The international benchmark for crude oil traded Wednesday above $92 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon.

With U.S. midterm elections approaching in the fall, polls have pointed to the unpopularity of the war among Americans, who have felt the pain of pricier gas and seen new casualties in a conflict that weeks ago seemed to be winding down.

The number of wounded U.S. personnel in the Iran war has grown to well over 500 troops, a U.S. official told The Associated Press. The total is higher than the Pentagon’s official tally on the Defense Casualty Analysis System, which currently shows 482 wounded.

The U.S. official, who was not authorized to discuss the matter with the media and spoke on condition of anonymity, said the system has a significant lag in reporting injuries. The official said that was a function of its design and not intentional.

Iran-backed rebels in Yemen open a new front in the Red Sea

In the Red Sea, Iran-backed Yemen’s Houthi rebels have opened a new front against Saudi Arabia by declaring a naval blockade of the kingdom, threatening the flow of global oil supplies and trade. With the Strait of Hormuz blocked up, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market.

A news agency in Yemen that is run by the Houthis, SABA, said Tuesday that six ships in the Red Sea were forced to reroute after they received warnings from the rebel group. The Associated Press could not immediately confirm the claim.

Three Houthi officials said the group warned international shipping companies on Monday to avoid transiting through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait , the gateway to the Red Sea on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula from the Strait of Hormuz. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity, saying they weren’t authorized to speak to journalists.

Trump says US has ‘no interest’ in Iran talks

Momeni, Iran’s interior minister, met Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir , according to two officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door negotiations. Momeni later met Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

In a statement, Sharif expressed deep concern over the recent U.S.-Iran escalation, and urged all sides to exercise restraint and avoid actions that could further destabilize the region.

Pakistan’s political leadership and Munir, who serves as both the chief of army staff and defense forces , played a key role in brokering last month’s interim agreement between the U.S. and Iran. Islamabad has been working to persuade both sides to return to the negotiating table.

Trump told reporters that Iranian officials “want to desperately meet. And until they’re ready to meet in a meaningful way, we have no interest in meeting.” He said the U.S. would soon target the area near Pickaxe Mountain — a fortified underground site near one of Iran’s primary nuclear enrichment facilities.

Iran’s military leaders said any attack on nuclear or “other sensitive facilities” would be considered a major escalation, according to a statement reported by Iranian state media.

A deep level of mistrust persists on both sides. Iran came under a surprise attack in June 2025 and again in February while it was engaging in nuclear negotiations with the U.S. The interim deal unraveled when Iran resumed attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which was supposed to be reopened under the agreement.

US strikes come as ships are attacked

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel.

Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed responsibility for the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route close to Oman’s shores has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control.

To enforce the blockade in the strait, as of Tuesday U.S. forces have redirected eight commercial vessels and disabled one, CENTCOM said on X.

___

Ahmed reported from Islamabad. Contributing were Associated Press writers Fatma Khaled in Cairo; Sally Abou AlJoud in Beirut; Collin Binkley and Konstantin Toropin in Washington; and Christopher Weber in Los Angeles.

JON GAMBRELL

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打开原文

伊朗战争成本升至375亿美元

重要性4/5 中高

公开听证会提供战争成本、追加预算和伤亡数字，来源质量与事实密度较高；缺少直接标的且预算尚未定案，优先级低于即时航运与油价报道。

来源信息

来源：Associated Press发布日期：2026-07-21归档状态：ready重要性：4/5 中高评级理由：公开听证会提供战争成本、追加预算和伤亡数字，来源质量与事实密度较高；缺少直接标的且预算尚未定案，优先级低于即时航运与油价报道。

中文摘要

核心结论

美国国防部长皮特·赫格塞思称，对伊朗战争迄今已耗资375亿美元，同时共和党推动规模950亿美元的预算方案。听证会暴露出成本上限、弹药消耗、战略目标和国会授权均缺少清晰答案，追加拨款面临政治与财政争议。

重要性评级

评级：4/5（中高）

375亿美元成本估算、950亿美元预算方案及17名美军死亡等数字，为评估战争持续能力和财政影响提供了高密度事实。报道来自公开参议院听证会，但未来总成本和拨款构成仍会随立法程序变化。

关键事实

赫格塞思在07/21（未给出具体时刻）的参议院拨款委员会听证会上估计，伊朗战争已耗资375亿美元，高于此前评估。
共和党准备推动950亿美元预算方案，其中600亿美元和120亿美元分别投向其他国家安全需求，另含100亿美元农业援助和100亿美元选举法调整资金。
报道引述民主党参议员帕蒂·默里称，特朗普还要求约700亿美元战争资金；赫格塞思表示，如无追加资金，军方将面临严重缺口。
五角大楼此前宣布再有3名美军死亡，使冲突死亡总数达到17人；自07月初以来另有超过100人受伤。
参议员珍妮·沙欣质疑追加拨款的必要性，因为国防部尚未使用上年度1500亿美元预算中的约一半；赫格塞思称剩余资金将在09月前支出。
参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩拒绝判断本次拨款是否足以完成军事目标，表示无法确定战争最终成本。
报道称，美国弹药库存正因持续导弹打击下降，伊朗控制霍尔木兹海峡油运又推高汽油价格；美联社与美国国家民意研究中心的民调显示，多数美国人不认可特朗普处理伊朗问题的方式。
预算方案拟通过预算协调程序推进，使共和党可在民主党反对下凭多数席位通过；众议院多数优势很小，部分保守派要求以其他支出削减抵消新增资金。

作者观点与证据

报道强调战争成本持续上修与政府战略说明不足。证据主要来自公开听证会、五角大楼伤亡公告、白宫声明、预算条目和议员质询，来源可核验。关于弹药库存下降及公众态度的描述提供了持续作战约束，但文章没有列出各类武器消耗、375亿美元的成本明细或民调具体比例。

与相关标的的关系

输入未列出直接相关股票代码。文章通过霍尔木兹海峡油运受控、美国汽油价格上涨、军费追加和弹药库存下降，对原油、炼化、国防承包商及美国财政形成宏观关联。缺少具体公司合同、订单金额或原油报价，无法据此确认单一标的的直接收入影响。

时效性与限制

文章发布于美东时间 07/21 13:55（UTC+8 07/22 01:55），采集于美东时间 07/21 22:44（UTC+8 07/22 10:44）。375亿美元是赫格塞思在听证会上的估算，950亿美元方案尚处立法阶段；文章未提供审计口径、支出期间或最终法案文本。

后续跟踪

950亿美元预算方案在众议院和参议院的金额调整及抵消安排。
国防部对375亿美元战争成本的分类明细和审计口径。
导弹与其他关键弹药的库存、补库周期和新增采购合同。
国会战争权力决议及政府对军事目标、退出条件的正式说明。

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Hegseth estimates Iran war has cost $37.5 billion as he defends funding request at fiery hearing

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faced fiery questions and protests Tuesday over the U.S. war with Iran , which he estimated has cost $37.5 billion so far, as Republicans prepare a $95 billion package to fund the military, along with other White House priorities.

Hegseth provided the new estimate, up from earlier assessments, during a combative Senate Appropriations Committee hearing, which came days after the Pentagon announced that three more American service members have died in the conflict, bringing the death toll to 17 , and that more than 100 have been injured since early July. Several times protesters interrupted his opening remarks.

Hegseth said the supplemental war funding is an “urgent, necessary” injection of money, and with President Donald Trump’s proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget a generational investment in the military.

“Without these funds, we face critical shortfalls,” Hegseth testified.

But Sen. Patty Murray, the top Democrat on the panel, warned of “another forever war.”

“This war is now spiraling out of control again,” Murray said.

President Donald Trump has said repeatedly that “a deal is near, and the war will be over soon,” she said. “But now, he’s asking for $70 billion more — and for us to just trust him it’ll all work out fine.”

Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins were also testifying before the panel. The proposed budget package includes $60 billion and $12 billion for other national security needs, along with $10 billion for farm aid and $10 billion for voting law changes.

Before the hearing, the White House issued a statement urging support of the budget resolution, “without modification — immediately.”

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War funds make up the bulk of the GOP budget plan

War funding makes up the bulk of the GOP’s new budget proposal, one last priority package the Republicans hope to launch before lawmakers recess to campaign for the midterm elections . The package aims to help farmers struggling under Trump’s tariffs and to pay for voter law changes, none of it paid for with offsets.

Most Americans continue to disapprove of how Trump is handling Iran, according to an AP-NORC poll. Gas prices have spiked as Iran works to control oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz , U.S. munitions are running low from the onslaught of American missile strikes and Trump has shifted away from his own campaign promise not to draw the U.S. into prolonged military conflicts.

Nevertheless, Trump has showed no signs of backing off the war, and the Republicans have largely refused to confront his strategy or use Congress’ power of the purse and war powers authority to halt the conflict.

“The commander in chief and the whole Department of War are working very hard to bring this to a resolution,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson at his weekly press conference Tuesday.

Hegseth faced questions over the war and his own leadership

Hegseth appeared before the panel facing a torrent of questions about not only the war, but his own leadership of the department.

Sen. Susan Collins, the Republican chair of the committee, opened the hearing saying it’s “deeply troubling” that the Pentagon has blocked or denied promotions to various officers, particularly women and minorities.

Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire questioned why Hegseth is asking for more money when the department has not yet spent about half the $150 billion Republicans provided the Pentagon in last year’s big budget bill.

“Why are you asking the American people to absorb the cost of a war they don’t support?” asked Shaheen.

When Hegseth started describing the “historic nature” of Trump’s military strategy, she cut him off. Hegseth later explained that the rest of last year’s budget package would be spent by September.

When GOP Sen. Mike Rounds wanted to know if this funding request would be enough to “get the job done,” the general demurred.

“I can’t answer the question on what it will cost, because the enemy has a vote,” Caine said.

Tensions flared during hours long hearing

Republican Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana was among several senators demanding answers over the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, asking if Iran will impose tolls on what historically has been an open waterway vital to the flow of oil.

Caine said, “That’s a hypothetical question, and I don’t know the answer to that.”

But Kennedy retorted: “Guys, we need straight answers.”

Tensions exploded toward the end of the more than three-hour hearing.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., told Hegseth flatly that his war claims don’t add up.

Has the U.S. obliterated Iran’s nuclear capabilities or not? she demanded to know.

“We’re staying laser-focused on the objective,” Hegseth responded, “and you’re trying to make campaign commercials.”

Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., probed Hegseth’s past assessments of the war, including the secretary’s claims of Iran’s surrender.

When Democratic Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan said the administration’s war strategy has been a complete “failure,” Hegseth erupted.

“Shame on you and others who call this a quagmire and a failure,” Hegseth said.

Peters told the secretary: “You, sir, are the failure.”

The senator said it’s not the U.S. troops who are failing, but their leaders. “You don’t have a strategy,” Peters said. “You don’t have a long-term plan to actually win this war.”

Hegseth said Democrats have “Trump Derangement Syndrome” and won’t give him the money he needs.

Peters said it’s not about money, “but a question of leadership.”

This week, the Senate will consider another war powers resolution , having voted nearly a dozen times to try to halt the conflict.

Republicans work to pass budget over Democratic objections

The GOP budget proposal is expected to flow through the reconciliation process, which enables the majority to approve the plan on its own, over the objections of Democrats in the minority.

It’s the same lengthy process Republicans used to approve Trump’s big tax cuts bill last summer, as well as Homeland Security money earlier this year.

The proposal is headed toward a House vote this week, which would start the process by instructing various committees to begin drafting the legislation. Johnson can afford only a few defectors from his slim majority, and some conservatives want the funding offset with spending reductions elsewhere.

GOP senators have so far panned the House budget plan, but are waiting to see if Johnson can kickstart the process.

___

Associated Press writers Matt Brown and Ben Finley contributed to this report.

打开原文

胡塞威胁冲击第二处石油航运要道

重要性5/5 最高优先级

报道时效性强，直接连接伊朗战争、两处关键海峡、沙特原油出口及UKOIL和USOIL的运输风险，并提供贸易占比、石油通行量和替代运力等高密度事实。胡塞关于改道和行动计划的部分证据尚未独立验证，阅读时需区分已知运力暴露与未经确认的封锁效果。

来源信息

来源：Associated Press发布日期：2026-07-21归档状态：ready重要性：5/5 最高优先级评级理由：报道时效性强，直接连接伊朗战争、两处关键海峡、沙特原油出口及UKOIL和USOIL的运输风险，并提供贸易占比、石油通行量和替代运力等高密度事实。胡塞关于改道和行动计划的部分证据尚未独立验证，阅读时需区分已知运力暴露与未经确认的封锁效果。

中文摘要

核心结论

胡塞武装宣布封锁与沙特有关的曼德海峡航运，使伊朗战争对霍尔木兹海峡的冲击可能扩展至第二处全球贸易要道。即使实际袭击有限，航运风险和保险费用上升也可能减少通行，推高石油运输成本并延长欧亚航程。

重要性评级

评级：5/5（最高优先级）

报道发布于美东时间 07/21 15:03（UTC+8 07/22 03:03），与伊朗战争、沙特原油出口及 UKOIL（布伦特原油常用行情代码）、USOIL（美国西得州原油常用行情代码）的运输风险直接相关。美联社提供了航运规模、替代运力及冲突主体表态，但胡塞方面关于船只改道的说法尚未获得独立证实。

关键事实

胡塞武装称已关闭曼德海峡的沙特关联航运通道，以回应沙特对也门的封锁及萨那国际机场遇袭；其声称07/21（未给出具体时刻）迫使6艘船改道，美联社未能独立确认。
曼德海峡连接红海与通往苏伊士运河的航线，约承载全球贸易的12%及全球集装箱运输量的四分之一。
由于伊朗战争已严重限制霍尔木兹海峡航运，曼德海峡成为沙特原油出口的重要替代通道。
6月经曼德海峡运输的石油超过每日700万桶，高于伊朗战争前约每日400万桶；这一数字来自大西洋理事会中东一体化项目负责人07/20（未给出具体时刻）发表的分析。
沙特近期约每日400万桶原油经红海沿岸延布港出口。若曼德海峡受阻，沙特仍可每日向埃及输送最多250万桶，再经 SUMED（苏伊士—地中海输油管道）抵达地中海，另可每日经苏伊士运河运输100万桶。
船舶可绕行南非好望角，但航程将增加1至2周，并带来额外燃料、租船和保险成本。
3名匿名胡塞官员称，该组织已筹划数月，备选手段包括水雷、装载炸药的小艇、无人机和直升机登船行动；其所述计划尚无公开行动证据验证。
胡塞武装在加沙战争高峰期袭击超过100艘船。美国和以色列的空袭在2025年初终止了当时的袭击活动；沙特军方此次表示将维持曼德海峡开放。

作者观点与证据

报道判断，胡塞威胁可能扩大伊朗战争的地域范围，并同时压迫霍尔木兹海峡与曼德海峡两条航线。支撑材料包括全球贸易占比、6月石油通行量、沙特延布港出口规模、替代管道能力、历史袭船记录，以及胡塞、沙特和美国官员的公开表态。行动方案主要来自匿名胡塞官员；6艘船改道也只有胡塞单方说法，因此当前证据更能确认威胁、运力暴露与风险路径，尚不足以确认海峡已经受到实质性封锁。

与相关标的的关系

UKOIL对应的布伦特原油对中东及红海实物运输变化较敏感；USOIL对应的美国原油虽不直接依赖该航道，也可能通过全球供应风险、运费、保险费和替代原油需求受到影响。报道没有提供原油价格、期限结构、库存或实际装运中断数据，能够支持的是风险传导路径，不能据此确认价格影响的幅度和持续时间。

时效性与限制

文章于美东时间 07/21 15:03（UTC+8 07/22 03:03）发布，并于美东时间 07/21 22:44（UTC+8 07/22 10:44）采集，属于当日冲突更新。页面中的更新时间字段未正常显示；封锁效果、船舶改道数量及军事计划仍依赖交战方和匿名消息源，后续事实可能快速变化。

后续跟踪

曼德海峡实际过境船次、油轮定位和延布港装船量。
航运公司改道范围，以及红海战争险保费与油轮运价。
胡塞是否实施水雷、无人机、快艇或登船行动，目标是否超出沙特关联船舶。
沙特、美国及其盟友的护航或军事回应，以及也门2022年停火安排是否继续有效。

原文

A new threat by Yemen's Houthis could widen the Iran war and put another trade chokepoint at risk

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A new threat by Yemen’s Houthis could widen the Iran war and put another trade chokepoint at risk

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Fireworks burst as Houthi supporters rally against the Saudi-led coalition in Sanaa, Yemen, Monday, July 20, 2026. Placards in Arabic read: “God is great, Death to America, Death to Israel, A curse on the Jews and Victory to Islam” and “boycott American and Israeli goods”. (AP Photo/Osamah Abdulrahman)

2 of 2 |

Fireworks burst as Houthi supporters rally against the Saudi-led coalition in Sanaa, Yemen, Monday, July 20, 2026. (AP Photo/Osamah Abdulrahman)

A new threat by Yemen’s Houthis could widen the Iran war and put another trade chokepoint at risk

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Fireworks burst as Houthi supporters rally against the Saudi-led coalition in Sanaa, Yemen, Monday, July 20, 2026. (AP Photo/Osamah Abdulrahman)

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Fireworks burst as Houthi supporters rally against the Saudi-led coalition in Sanaa, Yemen, Monday, July 20, 2026. (AP Photo/Osamah Abdulrahman)

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FATMA KHALED and AHMED AL-HAJ

Updated [hour]:[minute] [AMPM] [timezone], [monthFull] [day], [year]

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CAIRO (AP) — A declared blockade of Saudi Arabia by Yemen’s Houthi rebels has the potential to widen the Iran war and further disrupt global oil supplies and international trade.

The rebels say they have closed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Saudi-linked shipping in retaliation for the kingdom’s blockade on Yemen and a recent attack on the international airport in Yemen’s rebel-held capital, Sanaa. The Houthis claim to have forced six ships to reroute on Tuesday, but there was no independent confirmation.

Bab el-Mandeb , at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is a vital shipping chokepoint, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Arabia. Around 12% of the world’s trade, including a fourth of global container traffic, passes through the narrows, moving between Europe and Asia via Egypt’s Suez Canal.

The strait has become even more vital for Saudi oil exports since the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war has severely limited shipping out of the Persian Gulf.

The Houthis say they will only stop vessels connected to Saudi Arabia or going in and out of its Red Sea ports. But during a similar blockade announced against Israel over the war in Gaza, the rebels attacked many vessels with little or no connection to that conflict.

The threat alone could keep international shippers from using the route.

Sporadic attacks could largely block the waterway

The Houthis don’t control the part of Yemen’s coastline along Bab el-Mandeb — that’s in the hands of its opponents in the country’s civil war. But they hold territory less than 100 kilometers (60 miles) away.

Three Houthi officials told the AP on Tuesday that the group has planned for months how to disrupt shipping in the strait. Those plans include the use of naval mines, explosive-laden boats, drones and helicopters to allow fighters to board ships, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to media.

They said vessels would first be warned not to cross designated boundaries in the strait. If ships ignore the warnings, the Houthis would resort to military action.

In the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has shown that even sporadic attacks on ships can be enough to effectively close a critical waterway, by driving up risks and insurance premiums.

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Global trade could be disrupted at a second chokepoint

“If Bab el-Mandeb comes under pressure at the same time as shipping in the Gulf, you have disruption around two of the world’s most important maritime routes at once,” Clionadh Raleigh, the founder of ACLED, a conflict monitoring service, said Tuesday.

More than 7 million barrels of petroleum a day transited Bab el-Mandeb in June, compared to around 4 million before the Iran war, Allison Minor, the director of the Atlantic Council’s Project for Middle East Integration, wrote in an analysis published Monday.

Saudi Arabia has been recently exporting some 4 million barrels of oil a day through its Red Sea port of Yanbu, blunting the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has still rattled economies around the world.

Saudi Arabia could still get crude to market without using Bab el-Mandeb, by shipping up to 2.5 million barrels a day across the Red Sea to Egypt, whose SUMED pipeline can carry it to the Mediterranean. It could also ship 1 million barrels a day through the Suez Canal.

International shippers could also reroute, as they did at the height of the war in Gaza. But that means going the long way around the Cape of Good Hope off South Africa, adding one or two weeks to voyages — and raising costs.

Attacks could draw retaliation and reignite Yemen’s war

The Houthis attacked over 100 vessels at the height of the war in Gaza, before a punishing U.S. and Israeli air campaign put an end to the attacks in early 2025.

U.S. President Donald Trump brushed off the latest threat.

“So far, it hasn’t happened,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday. “I think that if there is something like that, we’ll just have to take care of business.”

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The Houthis also run the risk of reigniting the war with Saudi Arabia and its allies in Yemen, where major fighting ended with a truce in 2022. Saudi Arabia’s military says it will keep Bab el-Mandeb open.

“All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj. Gen. Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesperson.

Yemen’s civil war began in 2014 when the rebels seized the capital, Sanaa, and much of northern Yemen, forcing the government into exile. Saudi Arabia has led an international coalition fighting the rebels and also imposed an air and sea blockade on Houthi-held parts of Yemen, which had eased in recent years.

The Houthis say Saudi Arabia struck the airport in Sanaa earlier this month in an attempt to stop a flight carrying Houthi leaders back from Iran, where they had attended the funeral of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The plane landed safely at another airport.

The Houthis then launched missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia’s Abha International Airport in the most significant confrontation in years.

The Houthis say closing Bab el-Mandeb to Saudi traffic aims to break the coalition’s blockade.

Ahmed Nagi, a senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group, said the blockade also benefits the Houthis’ ally, Iran, at a time when the U.S. has resumed daily airstrikes.

″From Iran’s perspective, opening additional pressure points across the region gives it more leverage,” Nagi said. “The Houthis provide Tehran with influence over one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.”

——

Al-Haj reported from Aden, Yemen. Associated Press writer Collin Binkley in Washington contributed.

FATMA KHALED

Khaled is based in the Middle East region. She covers humanitarian crises, conflict, among other news beats for The Associated Press.

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打开原文

美国原油累库但库存仍偏低

重要性4/5 中高

最新官方周度供需数据直接覆盖原油标的，数字密度和来源质量较高，但单周美国库存不足以形成全球油市判断。

来源信息

来源：U.S. Energy Information Administration发布日期：2026-07-22归档状态：ready重要性：4/5 中高评级理由：最新官方周度供需数据直接覆盖原油标的，数字密度和来源质量较高，但单周美国库存不足以形成全球油市判断。

中文摘要

核心结论

美国商业原油库存单周增加200万桶，但总量仍比五年同期均值低6%；炼厂开工率达到96.1%，成品油库存结构分化。数据反映供应链处于高加工、高库存流入状态，尚不足以单独证明石油需求趋势已经转弱。

重要性评级

评级：4/5（中高）

美国能源信息署的周度数据发布时间较新，覆盖库存、炼厂、进口与需求，是判断 UKOIL（布伦特原油标的）和 USOIL（美国原油标的）供需背景的一手证据；单周波动及统计口径限制了方向性解释。

关键事实

截至07/17的一周，美国商业原油库存增加200万桶至4.117亿桶，仍比2021—2025年同期均值低6%；该口径不含 SPR（战略石油储备）。
汽油库存增加80万桶，低于五年均值7%；馏分油库存增加140万桶，低于五年均值10%。
丙烷和丙烯库存增加630万桶，高于五年均值34%；商业石油总库存单周增加1160万桶。
炼厂产能利用率为96.1%，日加工量1710万桶，较前一周减少5.8万桶。
汽油日产量为970万桶，馏分油日产量升至530万桶。
原油日进口量增加11.7万桶至580万桶；四周平均进口量为560万桶，同比下降11%。
过去四周石油产品日均需求为2040万桶，同比下降1%；汽油需求增至890万桶，同比增长1%，馏分油需求为370万桶，同比增长2%，航空燃油需求同比增长9%。

作者观点与证据

文章来自 EIA（美国能源信息署）的《每周石油状况报告》，以官方统计为主，没有提出油价预测。原油、汽油和馏分油库存均低于五年均值，支持库存缓冲仍有限的判断；商业石油总库存大增主要受到丙烷和丙烯累库影响，不能直接等同于原油供给宽松。需求数据采用四周平均值，能削弱部分周度噪声，但仍属于初步统计。

与相关标的的关系

UKOIL与USOIL会同时受到美国库存变化、炼厂高负荷和进口下降影响。200万桶原油累库构成短期供应增加事实，低于五年均值6%、成品油库存偏低及运输燃料需求增长则提供相反约束；文章没有给出全球供应、霍尔木兹运输中断或价格弹性的完整数据。

时效性与限制

文章发布于07/22（未给出具体时刻），统计截止日为07/17；检索时间为美东时间 07/23 22:23（UTC+8 07/24 10:23）。周度库存容易受到进口到港、炼厂检修和产品分类变化影响，且美国数据无法完整代表全球石油平衡。

后续跟踪

商业原油库存能否连续数周增加，以及相对五年均值的缺口变化。
96.1%的炼厂开工率能否维持，成品油库存是否随之回补。
原油进口四周均值与国内产量的后续变化。
汽油、馏分油和航空燃油需求增速能否延续。

原文

Commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.0 million barrels - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

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Commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.0 million barrels

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Note: Commercial crude oil inventories do not include crude oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

For the week ending July 17, 2026, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased 2.0 million barrels to 411.7 million barrels, 6% below the previous five-year (2021–2025) average. Gasoline inventories increased 0.8 million barrels, 7% below the five-year average. Distillate inventories increased 1.4 million barrels, 10% below the five-year average. Propane/propylene inventories increased 6.3 million barrels, 34% above the five-year average. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 11.6 million barrels for the week.

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Note: Commercial crude oil inventories do not include crude oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

U.S. refineries operated at 96.1% capacity utilization, processing 17.1 million barrels per day (b/d), down 58,000 b/d from the previous week. Gasoline output averaged 9.7 million b/d, and distillate production increased to 5.3 million b/d.

Crude oil imports increased 117,000 b/d to 5.8 million b/d, although the four-week average of 5.6 million b/d is 11% less than a year ago. Gasoline imports averaged 494,000 b/d; distillate imports averaged 173,000 b/d.

Over the past four weeks, total product demand averaged 20.4 million b/d, down 1% year over year. Gasoline demand increased 1% to 8.9 million b/d, while distillate demand increased 2% to 3.7 million b/d. Jet fuel demand increased 9% year over year. The increase demand for transportation fuels was offset by decreasing demand in residual fuel oil, propane, and other oils.

Principal contributors: EIA Staff

Tags:

crude oil , inventories/stocks , consumption/demand , weekly

霍尔木兹争端外溢至亚洲安全

重要性5/5 高

报道把最新霍尔木兹政策争端与亚洲能源流向量化连接，直接影响油市风险评估；外交表态仍需行动和文件验证。

来源信息

来源：Associated Press发布日期：2026-07-22归档状态：ready重要性：5/5 高评级理由：报道把最新霍尔木兹政策争端与亚洲能源流向量化连接，直接影响油市风险评估；外交表态仍需行动和文件验证。

中文摘要

核心结论

美国国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥把伊朗控制霍尔木兹海峡并收费的主张界定为全球航行自由风险，同时向亚洲盟友强调类似做法可能在其他国际水道重演。亚洲对该冲突的直接关切来自能源依赖：2025年经霍尔木兹海峡运输的原油约80%、液化天然气近90%流向亚洲市场。

重要性评级

评级：5/5（高）

报道发布于日报日前两天，直接连接霍尔木兹政策争端、亚洲能源安全和国际油价，并包含 IEA（国际能源署）的区域流向数据；主要证据由各国官员表态构成，谈判进展仍缺少独立文件确认。

关键事实

鲁比奥在马尼拉举行的 ASEAN（东南亚国家联盟）部长级会议上称，若一国控制国际水道、收费并攻击拒付船只，将形成可能向其他地区扩散的危险先例。
鲁比奥表示伊朗曾通过直接和间接渠道接触美国，寻求解决分歧；他同时指称伊朗未履行已经达成的承诺。
俄罗斯外长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫表示，俄方希望美伊冲突尽快结束，并需要稳定的全球能源价格来制定长期经济政策。
澳大利亚外长黄英贤警告局势可能迅速恶化，呼吁停火、谈判并重新开放海峡。
IEA称，2025年经霍尔木兹海峡运输的原油约80%、LNG（液化天然气）近90%由亚洲市场进口，东南亚对中东化石燃料进口的依赖放大了能源冲击。
鲁比奥与美国、澳大利亚、印度和日本组成的 Quad（四方安全对话）外长讨论海上安全，并重申相关合作安排。
鲁比奥与中国外长王毅讨论了中菲在争议浅滩的新一轮冲突，也提及为中美讨论特定商品而设的贸易委员会及计划于9月举行的美中领导人会晤。

作者观点与证据

美联社将霍尔木兹争端置于亚洲能源依赖、国际水道规则和大国海上安全议程中。鲁比奥关于“危险先例”、伊朗违约及谈判接触的说法代表美国政府立场；文章没有提供停火协议文本、收费机制或伊朗对相关指控的完整回应。IEA的2025年能源流向比例是文中最具量化价值的证据。

与相关标的的关系

UKOIL（布伦特原油标的）和USOIL（美国原油标的）的关联路径包括霍尔木兹通行能力、对亚洲供应量及地区风险溢价。亚洲吸收海峡绝大部分原油与液化天然气流量，意味着通航限制会迅速传导至区域采购和全球替代货源竞争；报道未量化实际受阻船舶、出口损失或持续时间。

时效性与限制

文章发布于美东时间 07/22 01:18（UTC+8 07/22 13:18），检索于美东时间 07/23 22:23（UTC+8 07/24 10:23）。内容以外交场合的即时表态为主，政策威慑、谈判意愿和最终执行之间仍有距离。

后续跟踪

美伊直接或间接接触是否形成可核验的停火或通航安排。
霍尔木兹收费、航道管理及船舶安全规则是否出现正式文件。
亚洲进口商的原油与液化天然气改道、库存和采购成本。
ASEAN、四方安全对话及中美海上议题后续联合声明。

原文

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World News

Iran’s demands over the Strait of Hormuz would set a dangerous precedent, Rubio warns Asian leaders

1 of 6 |

“As of now, despite their direct outreaches - and Iran has been reaching out to the United States, both directly and indirectly, to engage in talks about settling the differences - with regards to what’s happening in that part of the world, unfortunately, so far, even though we have reached agreements, they have not kept their commitments,” U.S. Secretary of State Mark Rubio said in Manila. “We are open-minded and always willing to engage in negotiated settlements of differences,” he added.

2 of 6 |

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Wednesday that Iran’s demand to control and collect tolls in the Strait of Hormuz would threaten the world’s economy and the principle of freedom of navigation, even in Asia. Rubio, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also joined an annual meeting in the Philippine capital, Manila, with counterparts from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations who have expressed alarm over the resurgent war in the Middle East that has battered their region.

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From left, East Timor’s Foreign Minister Bendito dos Santos Freitas, Vietnam Foreign Minister Le Hoai Trung, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Cambodia’s Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn join hands during the ASEAN Post-Ministerial Conference with the United States on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Pasay city, Metro Manila, Philippines Wednesday, July 22, 2026. (Brendan Smialowski/Pool Photo via AP)

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U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, right, arrives for a group photo session during the ASEAN Post Ministerial Conference with the United States on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Pasay city, Metro Manila, Philippines Wednesday, July 22, 2026. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila, Pool)

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U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio makes an opening statement during the ASEAN Post-Ministerial Conference with U.S. on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Pasay city, Metro Manila, Philippines Wednesday, July 22, 2026. (Brendan Smialowski/Pool Photo via AP)

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Japan’s Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, left, shakes hands with India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar, center, as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio looks on, on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Pasay city, Metro Manila, Philippines Wednesday, July 22, 2026. (Brendan Smialowski/Pool Photo via AP)

Iran’s demands over the Strait of Hormuz would set a dangerous precedent, Rubio warns Asian leaders

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MICHELLE L. PRICE and JIM GOMEZ

Updated [hour]:[minute] [AMPM] [timezone], [monthFull] [day], [year]

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MANILA, Philippines (AP) — U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Asian leaders Wednesday that Iran’s demand to control and collect tolls in the Strait of Hormuz would threaten the world’s economy and set a precedent that could be repeated elsewhere in the world.

Rubio spoke at the start of an annual meeting in the Philippine capital, Manila, with counterparts from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations who have expressed alarm over the resurgent fighting in the Middle East that has battered their region. Despite Washington’s preoccupation with Iran, Rubio said, “We’re with ASEAN 100%.”

“If we create a precedent in the Middle East where a nation-state can decide that they are going to control an international waterway, charge a toll and if you don’t pay them, blow up your ships, we have created a very dangerous precedent which will repeat itself in other parts of the world, including in this region,” he said.

Washington’s top diplomat also renewed allegations that Iran has reneged on commitments under a collapsed interim ceasefire deal. Rubio said Iran “has been reaching out to the United States, both directly and indirectly, to engage in talks about settling the differences.” He said that while “the U.S. would love to reach a diplomatic settlement,” the Trump administration is “not going to sit by and let ships be blown up or Americans be attacked.”

Top diplomats from the U.S., China, Russia and several other countries are in Manila this week to take part in at the ASEAN ministerial gathering. Newly minted British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband was arriving Wednesday, his office said.

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Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, told reporters that Moscow would like to see a quick settlement between the U.S. and Iran.

“There are those eager to incite each party to keep the conflict going, but we aren’t one of those,” he said.

“We would like to see it stop — it impacts the global economy and Russia is part of the global economy,” Lavrov said, adding that Moscow is “interested in stable global energy prices to pursue long-term economic policies.”

Southeast Asia hit hard by energy shock from Iran war

Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong underscored her country’s concern over the renewed attacks in the Middle East, warning that “the situation could deteriorate further without much warning.”

“We want to see an end to this war. We want to see a ceasefire. We want to see negotiations and we want the strait to be opened,” Wong told reporters.

Our flagship newsletter breaks down the biggest headlines of the day.

“People are being affected by what is happening and has happened to global energy markets and the effect on people has been direct and personal,” she said.

Overreliance on fossil fuel imports from the Middle East has made Southeast Asia particularly vulnerable to the energy shock triggered by the Iran war, according to the International Energy Agency, which called the crisis a “stark wake-up call” for the region’s energy security.

Asian markets imported about 80% of the crude oil and almost 90% of the liquefied natural gas, or LNG, transiting through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, the IEA said.

Rubio and allies reaffirm commitment to counter growing Chinese influence

Rubio also met with counterparts in the four-nation Quad partnership, which is made up of the U.S., Australia, India and Japan. They discussed maritime and transnational security, among other issues, and issued a joint statement that reaffirmed their commitment to maritime security initiatives aiming to counter China’s growing influence in the region.

During the meeting, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi voiced strong opposition to any attempts to change the status quo by force in the region, including in the disputed South China Sea and East China Sea, where China’s increasingly aggressive actions have sparked concern.

Tokyo has a long-running dispute over Japan-controlled islands, which Beijing also claims, in the East China Sea.

Wong echoed his concern, saying, “We have real concerns about behavior that is destabilizing and risky.”

The Trump administration has repeatedly criticized China’s assertive actions in the South China Sea to the disadvantage of smaller claimant countries like the Philippines, Washington’s oldest treaty ally in Asia.

Rubio met separately with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, telling reporters later that they discussed a new altercation this week between Chinese and Filipino forces in a disputed shoal . Rubio called the incident “escalatory.”

“It speaks to areas of disagreement when it comes to our policies with China,” Rubio said. “Those need to be managed very carefully, because obviously, a conflict — be it economic or otherwise — between the U.S. and China would have a dramatic global impact.”

He said they also talked about a trade board that is meant to allow the two governments to discuss certain goods, and that he hopes it can be a “deliverable” from a planned meeting in the U.S. in September between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Wang protested to Rubio about “recent negative words and actions by the U.S. side,” according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. It was not clear what he referred to, but Trump recently accused China of meddling in the 2020 election and the U.S. administration shortened visas for Chinese journalists .

ASEAN foreign ministers discussed the territorial disputes Tuesday, welcoming progress in yearslong negotiations between China and their regional bloc on a proposed non-aggression pact that aims to prevent a major conflict in the disputed waters that could draw in the United States.

Rubio and Lavrov to discuss Ukraine

Rubio said he will meet Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, on Thursday and discuss the war in Ukraine. He suggested he also would use the meeting to find other areas of potential cooperation between the U.S. and Russia.

He said the U.S. remains open to playing a role in ending the conflict “if that opportunity presents itself.”

Rubio said those efforts have “kind of fallen off a little bit over the last few months” but he will use the meeting with Lavrov to see if there’s an opportunity to renew talks.

Lavrov, meanwhile, said he will ask Rubio about Trump’s claim that a settlement on the war in Ukraine is getting close.

Rubio also met with his Indian counterpart, External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, a U.S. official said. They discussed both regional issues and the Iran war, along with a yet-to-be completed trade agreement to lower Trump’s tariffs on Indian goods.

___

Associated Press journalists Haruka Nuga and Anton Delgado in Bangkok, Mari Yamaguchi in Tokyo and Fu Ting in Washington contributed to this report.

MICHELLE L. PRICE

Price covers the White House. She previously covered the 2024 presidential campaign and politics, government and other news in New York, Nevada, Utah and Arizona. She is based in Washington.

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JIM GOMEZ

Gomez is The AP Chief Correspondent in the Philippines.

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打开原文

国际海事组织谴责红海袭船

重要性4/5 中高

最新IMO官方声明确认红海航运、船员和污染风险已进入国际组织处置范围，但缺少事件规模及石油流量数据。

来源信息

来源：International Maritime Organization发布日期：2026-07-23归档状态：ready重要性：4/5 中高评级理由：最新IMO官方声明确认红海航运、船员和污染风险已进入国际组织处置范围，但缺少事件规模及石油流量数据。

中文摘要

核心结论

IMO（国际海事组织）秘书长阿塞尼奥·多明格斯谴责红海近期针对国际航运的袭击，强调事件同时威胁船员、航运安全、海洋环境和全球供应链。声明要求船舶经营者充分评估通行风险，并呼吁立即无条件释放仍被扣押的船员。

重要性评级

评级：4/5（中高）

声明距日报日期仅一天，来自联合国体系下负责航运安全的专业机构，可确认红海航运风险已上升至正式国际组织议程；声明没有披露涉事船舶、袭击方、损失规模或航运流量数据。

关键事实

IMO于07/23（未给出具体时刻）发布声明，称红海地区最新报告的国际航运袭击“不可辩护”。
秘书长多明格斯指出，袭击危及作为平民的船员，并威胁国际航运安全、海洋环境和全球供应链稳定。
IMO要求船舶经营者在通过该地区前进行充分风险评估，避免将船员置于冲突危险中。
声明再次要求立即、无条件释放在红海和亚丁湾海盗袭击后仍遭扣押的全部船员。
IMO将红海界定为国际贸易关键海上走廊，持续袭击可能升级紧张局势、扰乱商业航线并削弱航行自由。
机构同时关注红海近期事件及霍尔木兹海峡此前事件可能造成的污染，并表示将继续监测、准备提供协助。

作者观点与证据

声明表达IMO的制度立场，重点是船员保护、航行自由、供应链稳定和污染风险。其证据基础是“已报告的事件”，正文没有列出独立调查结果、具体事故清单或责任认定，因此适合确认监管与安全关切，不能据此确定袭击规模和肇事主体。

与相关标的的关系

红海航线连接苏伊士运河及欧洲—亚洲贸易，袭击会影响油轮安全、保险、绕航和交付周期，从而关联UKOIL（布伦特原油标的）与USOIL（美国原油标的）的运输风险。声明还把红海与霍尔木兹海峡的污染风险并列，但没有量化石油运输中断或价格影响。

时效性与限制

声明发布于07/23（未给出具体时刻），检索于美东时间 07/23 22:23（UTC+8 07/24 10:23）。它属于机构立场声明，缺少事件级数据和责任调查结论。

后续跟踪

IMO或成员国是否公布涉事船舶、人员和环境损失调查。
船公司风险评估是否带来停航、绕航或航次减少。
被扣押船员的释放进展及国际法执行情况。
红海与霍尔木兹海峡是否出现可测量的污染事件。

原文

Statement on recent attacks on ships in the Red Sea

23 July 2026

Statement on recent attacks on ships in the Red Sea

Renewed attacks on international shipping in the region are "indefensible", says IMO Secretary-General.

The Red Sea is a critical maritime corridor for international trade.

The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), Mr. Arsenio Dominguez, issued the following statement:

“I unequivocally condemn the latest reported attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea area. These attacks are indefensible. They endanger the lives of seafarers, while threatening the security of international shipping, the marine environment and the stability of global supply chains.

Seafarers are civilians performing essential work that sustains economies and communities worldwide. Ship operators must thoroughly assess risks before transiting the region. Seafarers must never be placed in harm’s way or targeted in situations of conflict or instability.

I also renew my call for the immediate and unconditional release of all seafarers who continue to be held captive following piracy attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden region. Ensuring their safety is a fundamental obligation under international law and a shared responsibility of the global community.

The Red Sea is a critical maritime corridor for international trade. Continued attacks on shipping in this region risk escalating tensions, further disrupting commercial routes and undermining the principle of freedom of navigation.

De-escalation is the only solution.

I am equally concerned about the potential pollution from these reported incidents in the Red Sea and previous incidents in the Strait of Hormuz area.  IMO will continue to monitor the situation and stands ready to assist as necessary.”

打开原文

红海与霍尔木兹双重航运冲击

重要性5/5 高

事件同时覆盖两条关键航路、油轮实物风险和布伦特即时价格反应，时效性与标的相关度最高；战时信源仍需交叉验证。

来源信息

来源：Associated Press发布日期：2026-07-23归档状态：ready重要性：5/5 高评级理由：事件同时覆盖两条关键航路、油轮实物风险和布伦特即时价格反应，时效性与标的相关度最高；战时信源仍需交叉验证。

中文摘要

核心结论

美军连续第13夜打击伊朗之际，胡塞武装声称袭击两艘沙特油轮，使风险从霍尔木兹海峡扩展到红海和曼德海峡。两条关键航路同时受压，布伦特原油单日一度上涨逾6%至每桶约100美元，沙特经延布港绕开波斯湾的替代出口路径也受到质疑。

重要性评级

评级：5/5（高）

报道发布于日报前一天，包含军事行动、油轮袭击、关键航道流量、油价反应和政治约束，直接关联UKOIL（布伦特原油标的）与USOIL（美国原油标的）。部分袭击细节来自胡塞武装及地区官方媒体，责任归属和损害程度仍待独立核实。

关键事实

美军宣布对伊朗实施连续第13夜打击；美国中央司令部称行动旨在削弱伊朗威胁地区水域民用船员和商船的能力。
胡塞武装声称在红海袭击沙特油轮Encelia和Layla并引发火灾，暂未报告人员伤亡；沙特官方仅确认Encelia遇袭。
英国海上贸易行动办公室收到报告，一艘油轮在沙特沙基克西南约130公里处遭不明飞行物击中。
曼德海峡承担全球约12%的贸易和四分之一的集装箱运输，是红海、亚丁湾和苏伊士运河之间的关键节点。
霍尔木兹海峡在和平时期承载全球约五分之一的石油和天然气运输；伊朗主张管理通行并可能收费，美国则试图恢复其控制之外的商船航线。
沙特已通过陆上管道把每日数百万桶原油出口转往红海延布港；劳氏海事情报认为胡塞威胁削弱了这条替代路线的可行性。
布伦特原油在07/23一度上涨逾6%至每桶约100美元，为5月以来最高水平。
伊朗卫生部门称，自06/27美国恢复空袭以来已有55人死亡、629人受伤；美国众议院以微弱优势通过要求停止战争的决议，但该决议主要具有象征意义。

作者观点与证据

美联社将事件描述为霍尔木兹与红海航运风险叠加，并以油价、航道占比和沙特改道能力说明经济传导。美国中央司令部、沙特通讯社、英国海上贸易行动办公室和劳氏海事情报提供了相互补充的证据；第二艘油轮遇袭及胡塞武装责任主要来自其自有通讯渠道，尚未获得同等程度的独立确认。有关美国使用受制裁伊朗资金赔偿船舶损失的说法缺少明确法律机制。

与相关标的的关系

UKOIL与USOIL面对的直接变量包括霍尔木兹通行、红海油轮安全、延布出口能力、保险和绕航成本。布伦特油价升至约100美元显示风险已经进入现货基准价格，但文章未分解供给中断、风险溢价和短期追价各自贡献，也未提供实际出口减少量。

时效性与限制

文章发布于美东时间 07/23 03:02（UTC+8 07/23 15:02），检索于美东时间 07/23 22:23（UTC+8 07/24 10:23）。战时消息快速变化，袭击地点、船舶损害、伤亡和航道状态可能在发布后更新；文中多项信息来自交战方或国家媒体。

后续跟踪

Encelia与Layla的船况、货物、保险及第三方核验结果。
延布港和东西向管道的实际出口量与装船节奏。
霍尔木兹、曼德海峡及苏伊士航线的船舶通行数量和绕航比例。
美军行动、胡塞封锁范围及美国国内战争授权程序的变化。

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World News

US military launches new strikes on Iran as clashes escalate over shipping routes

1 of 7 |

U.S. Central Command said the attacks were designed to “further degrade Iran’s ability to threaten civilian mariners and commercial vessels transiting regional waters,” as the Americans push to regain control over the Strait of Hormuz and restore the flow of international shipping.

2 of 7 |

President Donald Trump honored four U.S. service members killed in the Middle East during a dignified transfer at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware on Wednesday, the third such ceremony he has attended since launching the war in Iran in February. (AP Video: Tassanee Vejpongsa)

3 of 7 |

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Trump administration is poised to help end the “senseless war” in Ukraine but acknowledged there is no quick path to a deal. Commenting on the Iran war, Rubio said that U.S. President Donald Trump’s policy toward Iran is a “head for an eye.” That was in response to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi supposedly describing Iran’s own policy towards the war as an “eye for an eye.”

4 of 7 |

Mourners carry the coffins containing additional remains of victims identified through DNA testing during funeral ceremonies in Minab, Iran, Tuesday, July 22, 2026, nearly five months after they were killed in the Feb. 28 strike on the Shajareh Tayyebeh School.(Razieh Poudat/ISNA via AP)

5 of 7 |

President Donald Trump arrives on Air Force One at Dobbins Air Reserve Base, Wednesday, July 22, 2026, in Marietta, Ga. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

6 of 7 |

In this photo released by the Iranian Presidency Office, Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, center, reviews an honor guard as he is welcomed by the Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, left, during his official welcoming ceremony in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, July 22, 2026. (Iranian Presidency Office via AP)

7 of 7 |

In this photo released by the Iranian Presidency Office, President Masoud Pezeshkian, right, shakes hands with Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi during their meeting in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, July 22, 2026. (Iranian Presidency Office via AP)

US military launches new strikes on Iran as clashes escalate over shipping routes

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President Donald Trump arrives on Air Force One at Dobbins Air Reserve Base, Wednesday, July 22, 2026, in Marietta, Ga. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

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President Donald Trump arrives on Air Force One at Dobbins Air Reserve Base, Wednesday, July 22, 2026, in Marietta, Ga. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

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ELENA BECATOROS , FATMA KHALED and COLLIN BINKLEY

Updated [hour]:[minute] [AMPM] [timezone], [monthFull] [day], [year]

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CAIRO (AP) — The U.S. military announced the 13th night of strikes Thursday against Iran as clashes escalate over shipping routes. The attacks came after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels said they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, potentially widening the Iran war as international oil topped $100 a barrel .

A short time later, Iranian state media reported explosions along the strait in Qeshm and Bandar Abbas, where two people were reportedly injured, as well as to the northwest near Andimeshk, Omidiyeh and Firuzabad.

U.S. Central Command said the latest attacks concluded shortly before 5 a.m. local time. The strikes were designed to “further degrade Iran’s ability to threaten civilian mariners and commercial vessels transiting regional waters” as the Americans push to regain control over the Strait of Hormuz and restore the flow of international shipping.

Meanwhile, the Houthis threatened to shut down another key trade route , with the world economy already reeling from Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz . Iran and the U.S. have stepped up attacks as they vie for control of the strait, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas transited in peacetime, setting off a scramble for alternative routes .

President Donald Trump threatened “major military punishment” against the Houthis if their attacks on ships continue.

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“If they do this again, the U.S. will hold Iran responsible, in that the Houthis are a Surrogate and/or Proxy of Iran, and major military punishment will be inflicted upon Iran and, of course, the Houthis, themselves,” Trump wrote on social media.

President Donald Trump arrives on Air Force One at Dobbins Air Reserve Base, Wednesday, July 22, 2026, in Marietta, Ga. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

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AP AUDIO: Yemen’s Houthis attack Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, threatening to widen Iran war

AP correspondent Charles de Ledesma reports Yemen’s Houthi rebels claim an attack on Saudi oil tankers.

As the rhetoric escalated, so did the economic fallout. The price of Brent crude oil, the international standard, spiked more than 6% Thursday, to about $100 a barrel. That is the highest level since May, before the two sides reached a preliminary peace agreement last month that has since collapsed .

Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi of Iraq, which has close ties to both the U.S. and Iran, was in Tehran on Thursday to call for peace and dialogue, and he promised not to allow Iraqi territory to be used for attacks on Iran, his office said. Al-Zaidi met with Trump earlier this month in Washington.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned Thursday that the region is being pulled “into an ever-widening circle of confrontation” with one crisis feeding another and every escalation triggering the next.

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“Diplomacy is the only way forward,” Guterres told the U.N. Security Council. He called for Pakistan’s efforts to mediate an end to the war to be strengthened.

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Houthi attacks are a ‘double whammy’ on oil shipments

The Houthis’ SABA news agency said the rebels had struck two tankers, the Encelia and the Layla, in the Red Sea, causing fires on both. There were no reports of casualties.

It was the first reported Houthi attack on a vessel since they announced a blockade of Saudi-linked shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait earlier this week in retaliation for the kingdom’s blockade on Yemen and a recent attack on the international airport in Yemen’s rebel-held capital, Sanaa.

Bab el-Mandeb , at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is a vital shipping chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Around 12% of the world’s trade, including a fourth of global container traffic, passes through there, moving between Europe and Asia via Egypt’s Suez Canal.

The state-run Saudi Press Agency reported an attack set the Encelia ablaze overnight in the Red Sea. It did not mention the Layla.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center said it received a report of a tanker being struck by “an unknown projectile” 130 kilometers (80 miles) southwest of Al Shuqaiq, Saudi Arabia, in the Red Sea.

The Houthi attacks put at risk oil shipments from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port on the Red Sea and present a “double whammy” on top of the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, said maritime data and analysis firm Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

Saudi Arabia has diverted millions of barrels a day of oil exports to Yanbu via an overland pipeline as the war has bottled up the Persian Gulf.

The Houthi threat “raises questions on the viability of this route,” Lloyd’s said in slides accompanying an online webinar Thursday.

The rebels say they are blockading Saudi Arabia, but during their announced blockade of Israel at the height of the war in Gaza, they targeted many vessels with little or no connection to that conflict, disrupting global trade.

Both sides dig in over Strait of Hormuz

Iran says it has the right to manage traffic and potentially charge fees in the Strait of Hormuz, which was open to all toll-free before the war. It has attacked ships using a route through the strait that is overseen by U.S. forces and intended to be outside Tehran’s control.

Trump said on social media Thursday that sanctioned Iranian funds in the possession of the U.S. will cover the expense of fixing boats damaged in the war.

“Please let this statement serve to represent, until further notice, that from this point forth, any and all damages done to Ships, Cargo, or anything related thereto, will be paid for by Iranian Money that the United States has in its possession, and controls,” Trump said.

It was unclear what legal mechanisms Trump would use to access and spend the funds, but he said that doing so would be “the fair and equitable thing to do.”

In response to Iran’s attacks, the U.S. began the widening campaign of strikes across Iran and restored a naval blockade of Iran’s ports. U.S. Central Command said it has redirected about a dozen commercial vessels and disabled one since the blockade resumed.

The war of words has also escalated. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran would adopt an “eye for an eye” policy on U.S. strikes against its infrastructure. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio retorted that Trump’s policy is “a head for an eye.”

“The price will continue to get higher every single night until they come to their senses,” Rubio told reporters while traveling in the Philippines for a regional summit .

Iran’s health ministry said Thursday that 55 people have been killed and 629 have been wounded since renewed U.S. airstrikes began on June 27.

Iran has responded to U.S. attacks by targeting energy infrastructure and desalination plants providing drinking water in parched neighboring Gulf countries.

Polls have shown the war is unpopular among Americans, a fact reflected in the narrow passage Thursday of a resolution in the U.S. House to halt the war . Though a handful of Republicans crossed party lines to support the measure, the vote remained largely symbolic.

___

Becatoros reported from Athens, Greece, and Binkley from Washington. Associated Press writers Munir Ahmed in Islamabad, Pakistan; Bassem Mroue in Beirut; Michelle L. Price and Jim Gomez in Manila, Philippines; Qassim Abdul-Zahra in Baghdad, Matthew Lee in Washington; and Christopher Weber in Los Angeles contributed to this report.

ELENA BECATOROS

Becatoros oversees coverage of southeast Europe for The Associated Press, with frequent assignments to the Middle East and Afghanistan. Based in Athens, Greece, she has worked around the world, including covering war in the Balkans, Iraq, Afghanistan and Ukraine.

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FATMA KHALED

Khaled is based in the Middle East region. She covers humanitarian crises, conflict, among other news beats for The Associated Press.

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COLLIN BINKLEY

Binkley covers the White House and education policy for The Associated Press. He is based in Washington and joined the AP in 2015.

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打开原文

美国会再度挑战对伊军事行动

重要性4/5 中高

报道时效强，国会票数、伤亡、预算和民调证据密集，并直接关联霍尔木兹海峡与能源成本；未提供具体标的及市场量化数据，优先级低于可直接映射资产价格的材料。

来源信息

来源：Associated Press发布日期：2026-07-23归档状态：ready重要性：4/5 中高评级理由：报道时效强，国会票数、伤亡、预算和民调证据密集，并直接关联霍尔木兹海峡与能源成本；未提供具体标的及市场量化数据，优先级低于可直接映射资产价格的材料。

中文摘要

核心结论

美国众议院以214票对208票通过战争权力决议，要求对伊朗军事行动取得国会批准；参议院同日以47票对49票否决类似决议。两次表决没有直接法律约束力，但少数共和党议员倒戈，显示持续四个月的战争、霍尔木兹海峡受阻和国内成本上升正在削弱国会支持。

重要性评级

评级：4/5（中高）

文章发布于美东时间 07/23 10:26（UTC+8 07/23 22:26），紧邻当日国会表决，包含票数、预算、伤亡、民调及战争时间线等一手政治事实。输入未关联具体股票代码，因此对标的层面的解释力低于对能源、通胀和宏观风险的参考价值。

关键事实

众议院在07/23（未给出具体时刻）以214票对208票通过决议，要求美国对伊朗采取军事行动前取得国会批准；这是国会第二次向特朗普政府发出类似警告。
参议院同日以47票对49票否决类似决议。白宫称两项决议均不具法律效力，并主张总统拥有保护美国及阻止伊朗获得核武器的宪法权力。
少数共和党众议员与民主党共同支持停止军事行动，但两院绝大多数共和党议员仍支持政府立场。
美以联合空袭于2026年2月下旬引发战争；双方4月达成脆弱停火安排，特朗普在7月早些时候宣布停火结束。
美国空袭仍在继续，外交努力尚无明显公开进展；霍尔木兹海峡这一全球能源要道仍大面积关闭，文章称燃料价格已在秋季中期选举前上涨。
众议院外交事务委员会主席布赖恩·马斯特称，开战以来已有18名美军人员死亡。
众议院在07/22（未给出具体时刻）通过一项由共和党单独支持的950亿美元预算方案，其中包含伊朗战争资金；该方案在参议院的前景尚不确定。
《华盛顿邮报》与益普索7月民调显示，只有约三分之二共和党人认可特朗普处理伊朗局势的方式；约六成共和党人认为战争值得进行，约三分之一仍不认同相关军事行动和谈判能够阻止伊朗发展核武器。

作者观点与证据

美联社将表决描述为政治警告和国会支持松动的信号，依据包括214比208和47比49的接近票差、跨党派倒戈、18名军人死亡、战争持续时间超过原定预期，以及7月民调。文章同时明确指出决议缺乏法律约束力，多数共和党议员仍支持政府，因此“支持削弱”反映边际变化，尚未形成足以终止军事行动的国会共识。

与相关标的的关系

输入元数据未列出相关股票代码。文章对能源与宏观资产的关系来自霍尔木兹海峡大面积关闭、燃料价格上涨及潜在全球经济扰动；对具体石油公司、航运企业、国防承包商或指数的影响缺少价格、运量、产量和盈利数据支持。

时效性与限制

文章检索于美东时间 07/23 22:23（UTC+8 07/24 10:23）。报道提供国会现场表决和政治表态，但没有量化海峡通航比例、能源供应损失或燃料价格涨幅；战争后续行动、预算审批和外交进程仍可能迅速变化。

后续跟踪

参议院是否推进包含伊朗战争资金的950亿美元预算方案。
两党议员是否转向拨款限制或再次提出战争权力决议。
霍尔木兹海峡实际通航量、恢复安排及外交谈判进展。
美国公众和共和党选民对战争的支持度是否继续下降。

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Politics

House again passes a resolution seeking to halt military action in Iran as the conflict escalates

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From left, Rep. Jason Crow, D-Colo., Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., and Rep. Greg Casar, D-Texas, talk to reporters just after the House narrowly passed a resolution to halt U.S. military action in Iran, at the Capitol in Washington, Thursday, July 23, 2026. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

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Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., leaves without taking any questions from reporters after finishing a series of votes on President Donald Trump’s priorities, at the Capitol in Washington, Wednesday, July 22, 2026. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

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Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., speaks to reporters following a weekly policy luncheon at the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, July 21, 2026. (AP Photo/Allison Robbert)

House again passes a resolution seeking to halt military action in Iran as the conflict escalates

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Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., speaks to reporters following a weekly policy luncheon at the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, July 21, 2026. (AP Photo/Allison Robbert)

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Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., speaks to reporters following a weekly policy luncheon at the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, July 21, 2026. (AP Photo/Allison Robbert)

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MARY CLARE JALONICK

Updated [hour]:[minute] [AMPM] [timezone], [monthFull] [day], [year]

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WASHINGTON (AP) — The House on Thursday narrowly passed a resolution to halt U.S. military action in Iran , sending a warning to President Donald Trump for the second time as the war has escalated and the future of the conflict is increasingly uncertain.

The 214-208 vote requiring congressional approval for the war came just before the Senate narrowly rejected a similar resolution, 47-49. Though the votes forced by Democrats are largely symbolic, they are meant as a signal to the Republican president that his support on Capitol Hill is chipping away as the war drags on and lawmakers in both parties have questioned his administration’s endgame.

The war has had “no clear mission, no strategy, no end goal,” said Washington Rep. Pramila Jayapal, a Democrat who led the resolution on the House floor.

The House resolution passed after a handful of Republicans voted with Democrats to end the war. But the vast majority of Republicans in both chambers voted to back the war and cede congressional war powers to Trump.

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Joint U.S. and Israeli airstrikes launched the war in late February. A tenuous ceasefire deal was reached in April, but Trump declared the ceasefire was “over” earlier this month.

Trump has insisted that continued U.S. attacks against Iran do not mean a return to war or long-term action. After the first House vote to halt the war in early June, he posted on social media that it was “unpatriotic” and “meaningless.”

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A statement of administration policy issued by the White House on Thursday noted that the resolutions don’t have the force of law and encouraged lawmakers to vote against them.

“The President has the Constitutional authority to defend the United States and our citizens from the danger posed by the Iranian regime,” the policy statement said. “This requires the ability to act decisively to ensure it never obtains a nuclear weapon.”

Continued American airstrikes are occurring even as diplomatic efforts show little public sign of progress and officials on both sides have dug in on the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz , a crucial waterway for global energy that remains largely closed. The unpopular war threatens further worldwide economic disruption and is sending fuel prices up ahead of midterm U.S. elections this fall.

“We are in this new escalatory phase where Americans have been killed, and Americans are experiencing the rising costs — I think it’s important that people be held accountable,” said Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen, a Democrat who led the Senate effort on Thursday. “And this is a very unpopular war.”

Most Republicans vote to cede congressional powers

As the House debated the resolution Wednesday evening, Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Brian Mast, R-Fla., read out names of 18 service members killed since the war began.

“To belittle this mission is to belittle and demean the very service these members gave their life for,” Mast said. “Their sacrifice was not meaningless. This operation is bringing reckoning for the hundreds of times Iran has attacked and killed people of the United States of America.”

The top Democrat on the panel, New York Rep. Gregory Meeks, said that presidents are supposed to make the case to Congress.

The service members who died made the ultimate sacrifice for “an illegal unauthorized war that the American people don’t want,” Meeks said.

Democrats said they would continue to force Republicans to vote on the issue.

“If Donald Trump won’t listen to the people and end this war then Congress must,” said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., speaks to reporters following a weekly policy luncheon at the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, July 21, 2026. (AP Photo/Allison Robbert)

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Trump is watching Iran votes closely

Republicans on both sides of the Capitol know that voting against the war can have a political cost, even as many of them have privately questioned the Trump administration’s handling of the conflict.

In his post after the June House vote, Trump called the four Republicans who voted with Democrats “GRANDSTANDERS!” and said they should be “ashamed of themselves.”

“They would rather have our Country fail than give me another, of many, victories,” he said.

When the Senate passed a war powers resolution on Iran for the first time in June, Trump called the four Republicans who voted for it “losers” and then reprimanded them at a Senate GOP luncheon that he attended the next day.

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, one of the Republicans who had voted with Democrats, said afterward that he had clashed with Trump over the issue. He said he told Trump directly that he needed to give more details to the public about the conflict.

“This was supposed to last four weeks. It’s lasted four months,” said Cassidy, who had just lost reelection in a primary after Trump endorsed one of his opponents. “Our original objectives have not been achieved.”

Trump argued back, Cassidy later told reporters, and he told the president that he wouldn’t change his vote until he got a briefing. The White House later relented, giving Cassidy a one-on-one meeting, and the Louisiana Republican changed his vote in a late-night do-over vote before the Senate left for a two-week recess.

Cassidy voted against the resolution again on Thursday.

Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., heads to a closed-door Republican policy meeting at the Capitol in Washington, June 16, 2026. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)

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Polling finds Americans disapprove of the war

Most Americans disapprove of the way Trump is handling the situation with Iran, according to recent polling. A Washington Post/Ipsos poll conducted in July found that few Americans think the war in Iran has been worth fighting, and most aren’t confident that the U.S. military action in Iran and negotiations to end the war will prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

Only about two-thirds of Republicans approve of Trump’s handling of the situation in Iran, according to the poll. Most Republicans, about 6 in 10, think the war has been worth fighting and are confident that the military action and ensuing negotiations will prevent Iran from development nuclear weapons, but a sizable share — about one-third — are unconvinced.

Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., said that if Congress can’t force Trump to seek congressional authorization then lawmakers should block war funding. The House on Wednesday adopted a Republican-only $95 billion budget proposal , including money for the Iran war, but its future is uncertain in the Senate.

“He wants to break the law, fine, let him break the law, but we control the appropriations process, and that’s what we need to use,” Kaine said.

___

Associated Press writers Steven Sloan and Amelia Thomson DeVeaux contributed to this report.

打开原文

美伊停火窗口与霍尔木兹谈判

重要性5/5 高

报道在发布后约4小时内被抓取，直接更新美伊军事暂停、霍尔木兹通航谈判与区域航道风险；美联社现场与政府消息来源较强，但关键谈判框架依赖匿名官员且尚无正式协议文本。

来源信息

来源：Associated Press发布日期：2026-07-26归档状态：ready重要性：5/5 高评级理由：报道在发布后约4小时内被抓取，直接更新美伊军事暂停、霍尔木兹通航谈判与区域航道风险；美联社现场与政府消息来源较强，但关键谈判框架依赖匿名官员且尚无正式协议文本。

中文摘要

核心结论

美国在连续13夜空袭后暂停对伊朗打击，美伊正借调停渠道讨论恢复6月临时停火安排，谈判焦点是允许伊朗管理霍尔木兹海峡船舶通行，同时减少对商船的限制。当前停顿能否延续仍取决于海峡控制权安排、伊朗内部权力分歧、美国是否恢复升级，以及以色列总理内塔尼亚胡下周访美后的政策协调。

重要性评级

评级：5/5（高）

文章发布于美东时间 07/25 20:10（UTC+8 07/26 08:10），直接更新美伊军事行动、霍尔木兹海峡通航和外交谈判状态。海峡平时承载全球约20%的石油运输，事件与 UKOIL（布伦特原油）、USOIL（美国原油）及 XAUUSD（现货黄金）的地缘风险定价高度相关。

关键事实

美国军方在接近两周持续加码轰炸、连续13夜实施打击后，暂停了对伊朗的空袭；伊朗也暂停对驻有美军的邻国发动反击。
一名参与斡旋的地区官员称，美伊双方希望恢复6月达成的临时停火协议，正在讨论由伊朗管理霍尔木兹海峡船舶通行、同时降低通行限制的折中方案。该官员无权公开置评，采用匿名方式提供信息。
霍尔木兹海峡平时承担全球约20%的石油运输。伊朗在战争开始后袭击油轮和货轮，要求船只沿伊朗海岸航行，并提出可能收取通行费。
商船随后更多使用阿曼沿岸南部航线，并接受美国监视保护；伊朗袭击部分船只后，美国重新打击伊朗沿岸防御设施，继而扩大至南部桥梁、基础设施和伊朗中部目标。
以色列于02/28（未给出具体时刻）与美国共同发动战争，但未参与美国近期针对伊朗封锁海峡行动的空袭。内塔尼亚胡计划下周访问华盛顿并与特朗普会面。
胡塞武装称其已关闭曼德海峡，并于07/25（未给出具体时刻）以导弹和无人机攻击沙特，回应沙特对荷台达的空袭；霍尔木兹受阻后，曼德海峡对沙特石油出口的重要性上升。
美国继续封锁伊朗港口，并称其于07/24（未给出具体时刻）在阿曼湾使一艘悬挂莫桑比克国旗、试图突破封锁且无视警告的商船失去行动能力。
特朗普于07/24（未给出具体时刻）表示，美国仍可加快军事打击，也正在同伊朗谈判；他认为伊朗尚未准备好达成协议，但严肃程度正在提高。

作者观点与证据

美联社将当前局势描述为一次可能的降级窗口，但没有把空袭暂停视为停火已经稳固。文章的事实支撑包括连续13夜空袭后没有发生新一轮美国打击、双方反击同步暂停、调停官员披露的谈判框架，以及特朗普公开确认军事与外交两条路径并行。

华盛顿近东政策研究所负责人迈克尔·辛格认为，若暂停持续数日才具有更强信号意义；现阶段既可能是作战调整，也可能服务于幕后外交。他还指出，伊朗内部派系竞争可能抬高妥协成本，而美伊对海峡开放条件及控制权仍存在明显分歧。这部分属于专家分析，不是协议条款或政府正式声明。

与相关标的的关系

UKOIL（布伦特原油）与 USOIL（美国原油）：海峡通航条件直接影响全球原油运输和风险溢价。空袭暂停与通行谈判提供缓和信号，但曼德海峡冲突、美国港口封锁及潜在以色列介入仍保留供应中断风险。
XAUUSD（现货黄金）：军事行动暂停可能削弱短期避险需求，谈判失败、空袭恢复或区域航道冲突扩散则可能重新抬升地缘避险需求。文章没有提供油价、黄金价格或实际通航量数据，无法据此判断风险溢价已消退多少。

时效性与限制

文章抓取时间为美东时间 07/26 00:07（UTC+8 07/26 12:07），距发布时间约4小时。谈判方案来自匿名地区官员，尚无美伊共同声明或协议文本；原文的更新时间字段显示为页面占位符，因此以元数据中的标准化发布时间为准。

后续跟踪

空袭与伊朗反击暂停能否持续数日，以及双方是否正式宣布恢复临时停火。
霍尔木兹海峡通行路线、收费权、检查权限和美国监视行动的具体安排。
内塔尼亚胡访美后，以色列是否加入针对伊朗沿岸与海峡设施的军事行动。
霍尔木兹和曼德海峡实际船舶流量、遇袭事件、保险费率与原油出口变化。

原文

Airstrikes have paused and talks are pressing forward. But can the US and Iran take the off-ramp?

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Airstrikes have paused and talks are pressing forward. But can the US and Iran take the off-ramp?

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President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office of the White House, Friday, July 24, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Rod Lamkey, Jr.)

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President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office of the White House, Friday, July 24, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Rod Lamkey, Jr.)

Airstrikes have paused and talks are pressing forward. But can the US and Iran take the off-ramp?

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President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office of the White House, Friday, July 24, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Rod Lamkey, Jr.)

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President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office of the White House, Friday, July 24, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Rod Lamkey, Jr.)

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BEN FINLEY , SAMY MAGDY and DARLENE SUPERVILLE

Updated [hour]:[minute] [AMPM] [timezone], [monthFull] [day], [year]

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WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. military has paused its airstrikes on Iran after nearly two weeks of intensifying bombing, while diplomatic efforts have pushed forward to try to avert a return to all-out war.

But it remains to be seen whether the U.S. and Iran are at an inflection point in a mercurial conflict that will reach the five-month point Tuesday. President Donald Trump both has threatened more strikes and said talks are pressing on, all while brushing off concerns that rising gas prices tied to the fighting could hurt Republicans in November’s midterm elections.

Adding to the uncertainty is the impact of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s planned visit with Trump next week in Washington. Israel, which launched the war alongside the U.S. on Feb. 28, has been notably absent from the renewed American attacks over Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz , a vital shipping corridor through which 20% of the world’s oil normally flows.

“The Iranians understand that perhaps it could get worse because Israel could come into the conflict,” said Michael Singh, managing director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. On the other hand, Israel’s lack of involvement so far “may signal to the Iranians that we’re looking to limit the conflict.”

Singh, who was senior Middle East director on the National Security Council during the George W. Bush administration, said he was hesitant to read too much into the lull in fighting.

“If it turns into a multiday pause, that’ll be something significant,” he said. “But it’s hard to know. Is it an operational pause? Is it a pause to allow for some kind of behind-the-scenes diplomacy?”

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Mediators keep pressing their diplomatic efforts

A regional official involved in the mediation efforts said that concerted diplomacy was underway and that a pause in U.S. strikes and Iranian counterstrikes on neighboring countries hosting American forces was a “positive signal that helps their efforts to de-escalate.”

The official said that both the U.S. and Iran want to return to the interim ceasefire deal and that a compromise, which is being negotiated now, centers around having Iran run vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz with fewer restrictions on ships. The official was not authorized to discuss the matter and spoke on condition of anonymity.

Iran put a chokehold on the narrow Persian Gulf waterway when the war began by firing on tankers and freighters. In turn, oil prices have soared during the conflict, which has been unpopular with many Americans , and could leave some Republican lawmakers vulnerable in November.

Following the signing of an interim ceasefire deal in June, a battle for control over the strait has erupted. Iran demanded that ships use a route near its coastline and said it can potentially charge fees . Ships were increasingly navigating a southern route along the coast of Oman under a U.S. overwatch operation when Iran attacked some vessels.

The U.S. renewed attacks on Iran’s coastal defenses, aiming to blunt Tehran’s ability to strike ships in the strait. The Trump administration then expanded its targets, hitting bridges and infrastructure in the south and striking deeper into the center of Iran.

Singh said the strikes appear to be an attempt to push Iran back to the negotiating table. Now, he said, “the question would be: What kind of messages, if any, is the Iranian regime sending through diplomatic channels? Have those messages changed? Do they seem more eager to return to talks?”

Among the challenges the U.S. faces is the fractured leadership in Iran, with different factions vying for control, Singh said, something that Trump administration officials have also pointed to. The people in charge in Iran may worry that compromising with the U.S. will be seen as weakness and could loosen their grip on power.

Whatever the case, both the U.S. and Iran need the strait to reopen for their own economic reasons.

“But they have very different conceptions of under what conditions, under whose control,” Singh said. “So we have to get to some kind of stable equilibrium on those questions before you’re going to see a longer period of quiet. I think this effort to negotiate with words and also to negotiate with force is going to continue until we reach that equilibrium.”

Trump issues threats but also talks up diplomacy

Despite the lull in fighting, tensions are high in the region.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels said Saturday that they fired missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia in response to Saudi airstrikes on the strategic Red Sea city of Hodeida. The Iran-backed rebels say they have closed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which has become even more vital for Saudi oil exports since the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz .

The U.S. military also is enforcing its naval blockade of Iranian ports, saying it disabled a Mozambique-flagged ship in the Gulf of Oman on Friday after the vessel tried to violate the blockade and ignored warnings.

Trump also has kept up the threats against Iran even as he spotlighted diplomacy. Asked about his exit strategy Friday, Trump said there are two ways.

“You can just keep doing exactly what we’re doing and take them apart piece by piece. We could do it in a more rapid fashion, which we might do,” he told reporters in the Oval Office. “Or we can negotiate with them, which we’re also doing right now.”

While Trump said he doesn’t think Iran is “ready yet” to make a deal, he also asserted that “I think they’re getting more and more serious as the days go by, for maybe the obvious reason.”

Trump met Friday with top national security aides to discuss the situation with Iran and whether the administration should maintain the current course or escalate military attacks, according to a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. No U.S. strikes occurred overnight in Iran after 13 consecutive nights .

Trump insisted Friday that he was “not in a hurry” to wrap things up because of the approaching elections, in which voters, angry about high food and gasoline prices, could vote his Republican Party out of control of Congress.

“Despite what everyone says about the election, I’m not in a hurry,” he said. “We have to do it right. Elections take care of themselves.”

____

Magdy reported from Cairo. Associated Press writer Matthew Lee contributed to this report.

SAMY MAGDY

Magdy is a Middle East reporter for The Associated Press, based in Cairo. He focuses on conflict, migration and human rights abuses.

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DARLENE SUPERVILLE

Superville covers the White House for The Associated Press, with a special emphasis on first ladies and first families.

打开原文

海峡控制谈判陷入僵局

重要性5/5 高

海峡管理谈判、实际通航中断和护航协作均直接关联原油运输风险，且发布接近当前观察窗口。

来源信息

来源：金十数据发布日期：2026-07-29归档状态：ready重要性：5/5 高评级理由：海峡管理谈判、实际通航中断和护航协作均直接关联原油运输风险，且发布接近当前观察窗口。

中文摘要

核心结论

伊朗拒绝阿曼提出的霍尔木兹海峡对等航道管理方案，要求完全控制入境航道并长期向过境船舶收费；美国反对这一主张。谈判分歧与欧洲对联合护航保持谨慎，使海峡通航恢复缺少明确的协调路径。

重要性评级

评级：5/5（高）

该文直接覆盖原油海运咽喉的管理谈判、实际船流和护航协作，发表于美东时间 07/28 21:36（UTC+8 07/29 09:36），对当日能源运输风险阅读价值高。

关键事实

阿曼提出临时对等控制安排；伊朗外交部副部长卡泽姆·加里巴巴迪称，伊朗要求完全控制入境航道，部分出境航道可由阿曼管理。
伊朗还主张长期向所有过境船舶收取海上服务强制费用，遭美国及海湾国家反对。
调解方另讨论由伊朗、美国和阿曼共同协调航行，以及成立区域联合体负责海上安全、搜救和融资。
美国推动英国、法国等盟友参与联合海军巡逻；多名欧洲官员称，持久停火前不会支持高风险新任务。
Windward Intelligence（航运风险数据机构）称，07/27 无油轮通过霍尔木兹海峡。
该机构还称，胡塞武装 07/20 宣布封锁后，曼德海峡商业船舶通行量下降22%，油轮下降39%，与沙特相关船舶下降46%。
文中称美国在中东保有两艘航母及搭载约2,500名海军陆战队员的部分舰艇。

作者观点与证据

文章将伊朗的海峡控制和收费要求视为重启美伊谈判的主要障碍，并把盟友迟疑列为护航难以迅速成形的约束。谈判细节、各方立场与巡逻协调主要引述《华尔街日报》、Politico和匿名官员；船流数据来自私人安全机构，未附完整航次样本。

与相关标的的关系

UKOIL（布伦特原油差价合约）和USOIL（美国原油差价合约）直接受霍尔木兹船流、通行费安排和护航落地进度影响。文中没有提供现货价格、库存或具体出口量数据。

后续跟踪

阿曼调解方案及美伊谈判是否恢复。
伊朗过境许可和收费规则是否形成书面安排。
欧洲国家是否承诺舰艇、扫雷或护航任务。
霍尔木兹与曼德海峡的油轮实际通行量。

原文

霍尔木兹海峡争夺升级！伊朗拒绝“共享”方案，美国拉盟友护航却遇冷-市场参考-金十数据

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霍尔木兹海峡争夺升级！伊朗拒绝“共享”方案，美国拉盟友护航却遇冷

伊朗拒绝阿曼提出的“共享”控制方案，坚持扩大对关键航道的影响力。德黑兰开出的条件让外交努力再度陷入僵局。与此同时，美国推动盟友参与海上护航却遭遇冷淡回应。

据《华尔街日报》，伊朗拒绝了由阿曼提出的平分霍尔木兹海峡航道控制权方案，导致德黑兰与华盛顿恢复谈判、推动结束战争的努力面临新的阻碍。

阿曼作为伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡另一侧的邻国，曾提出一项临时安排，希望双方建立对等航道控制机制。但伊朗方面周二表示，该方案无法满足其安全诉求，并要求在这条全球石油运输关键通道上获得更大控制份额。

伊朗外交部副部长卡泽姆·加里巴巴迪（Kazem Gharibabadi）表示，只有阿曼接受德黑兰提出的替代方案，伊朗才会进入下一阶段谈判。

“入境航道必须完全由伊朗控制，而出境航道的一部分可以保留在阿曼控制之下，” 加里巴巴迪对国家电视台表示，“如果他们接受这一提议，我们将进入下一阶段。”

参与调解的官员表示，伊朗拒绝阿曼方案令他们感到不满。伊朗位于霍尔木兹海峡北侧，而阿曼领土则位于南岸凸出的地角区域，两国均与这一重要航道存在地理联系。

一名伊朗官员此前表示，在与阿曼的谈判中，德黑兰坚持保留对霍尔木兹海峡的完全控制权，原因是美国用于打击伊朗领土的军事物资曾通过这一水道转运。

美国方面则反对伊朗扩大控制范围。一名美国官员周二表示：“霍尔木兹海峡是国际水道，伊朗不能控制或限制通过该水道的航行。”该官员称，伊朗提出的是“不合理的要求，是得寸进尺”。

但即便达成临时安排，霍尔木兹海峡未来如何管理仍存在重大分歧。

据知情官员透露，阿曼方面曾提出成立区域联合体，负责海上安全、搜救行动以及其他合作事务。该方案获得部分海湾国家支持，并计划由地区国家、航运企业和石油行业自愿提供资金。

伊朗则坚持认为，从长期来看，所有通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只都应为相关海上服务支付强制性费用。这一主张遭到海湾国家和美国反对。

另一项由调解方提出的方案则是，由伊朗、美国和阿曼共同协调该水道的航行安排。

在阿曼与伊朗最新一轮谈判开始前，马斯喀特方面曾在未获得伊朗批准的情况下，沿阿曼海岸线设立一条由美国支持的航运走廊。这一举动引发德黑兰军方不满。随后，伊朗恢复针对未经许可通过霍尔木兹海峡船只的攻击行动，并进一步促使美国对伊朗军事目标发动多轮打击。

调解方表示，伊朗拒绝阿曼方案，已经影响了他们推动德黑兰与华盛顿重新启动上月签署初步和平协议的努力。

目前，来自巴基斯坦、卡塔尔、土耳其和埃及的调解方仍在尝试帮助双方解决协议中的关键分歧。其中一个核心问题是，伊朗是否将获得控制霍尔木兹海峡并收取通行费的权利，而美国明确反对这一解释。

盟友对美国霍尔木兹海峡巡逻提议反应冷淡

另据Politico，美国推动盟友参与霍尔木兹海峡联合巡逻行动的计划遭遇阻力。欧洲多个盟友表示，除非伊朗战争实现更持久的停火，否则他们不会支持美国组建联合海军巡逻力量。这一情况反映出，特朗普政府此前在伊朗问题上的单边行动正在影响盟友合作意愿。

美国国防部长赫格塞斯正推动英国和法国参与领导相关海军联军，但据四名英国官员和一名美国官员透露，即使英国国防大臣韦斯·斯特里廷（Wes Streeting）参与协调，欧洲方面仍普遍持怀疑态度。

过去数月，赫格塞斯和特朗普多次批评欧洲国家没有参与伊朗战争行动。而此次寻求盟友支持，是美国在数月冲突后最集中推动的一次外交努力。

美国和英国官员计划在伦敦召开国际会议，讨论如何分配任务，包括哪些国家军舰负责扫雷，以及如何保护通过霍尔木兹海峡的民用航运。但五名了解相关计划的官员表示，目前协调工作进展有限，短期内预计不会取得明显突破。

一名英国官员透露，赫格塞斯在上周五与斯特里廷通话时提出了建立巡逻力量的设想。该人士称，此次通话重点并非推动盟友参与针对伊朗的进攻行动，而是讨论英美如何联合盟友支持美国的防御任务。

据其中一名英国官员介绍，赫格塞斯和斯特里廷随后于周一与法国武装力量部长凯瑟琳·沃特兰（Catherine Vautrin）通话，讨论如何“共同努力保障该地区的航运安全”。

两名英国官员表示，即使相关安排需要延后，斯特里廷仍计划继续与欧洲其他国家负责防务事务的官员沟通，以协调未来可能开展的多国海上行动。

一名英国方面人士表示：“国防部长一直在与盟友就加强海上安全的外交和军事努力进行建设性讨论，这些讨论将在未来几天继续进行。”

五角大楼和英国国防部拒绝发表评论，白宫以及法国驻美使馆也未回应置评请求。

欧洲方面的谨慎态度，与特朗普政府此前处理伊朗问题的方式有关。

两名欧洲官员表示，长期以来，盟友一直对美国在2月美以空袭伊朗前未提前进行充分沟通感到不满。他们担心，在白宫没有将欧洲国家视为真正合作伙伴的情况下，贸然参与一项风险较高的新任务并不明智。

斯特里廷上周日也对英国立场进行了区分。他表示，英国“没有加入也不会加入美国对伊朗的进攻性军事行动。这是我们在那一领域与美国未达成一致的地方。”

但他同时表示，在保障霍尔木兹海峡海上自由和商业航运安全方面，英国与美国“完全一致”。

根据私人安全公司Windward Intelligence的数据，7月27日，没有油轮通过这条曾经繁忙的海峡。在连接红海和亚丁湾的曼德海峡，自伊朗支持的也门胡塞武装于7月20日宣布实施封锁后，商业船舶通行量下降22%。其中，油轮通行量下降39%，与沙特相关船只通行量下降46%。

美国军事部署也仍维持高水平。目前，两艘美国航空母舰继续部署在中东地区，此外还有多艘军舰参与行动，其中部分舰艇搭载约2500名海军陆战队员。持续部署已经引发五角大楼内部对长期战备压力的担忧。

风险提示及免责条款：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。

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美军扩大对伊朗报复打击

重要性5/5 高

已确认的军事行动与后续政策路径直接影响海峡安全、能源运输和避险资产，时效性强。

来源信息

来源：金十数据发布日期：2026-07-30归档状态：ready重要性：5/5 高评级理由：已确认的军事行动与后续政策路径直接影响海峡安全、能源运输和避险资产，时效性强。

中文摘要

核心结论

美国中央司令部称，美军在伊朗袭击约旦境内美军目标后，已对数十个伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队目标完成大规模打击。美以同时评估外交、强化经济封锁和重启军事行动三条后续路径，短暂停火与谈判空间受到挤压。

重要性评级

评级：5/5（高）

军事行动已由美国中央司令部公开确认，且文章覆盖海峡局势的后续政策选项；发表于美东时间 07/29 22:18（UTC+8 07/30 10:18），与能源运输和避险资产的当日风险相关。

关键事实

美国中央司令部称，美军于美东时间 07/29 20:00（UTC+8 07/30 08:00）开始对伊朗发动袭击。
该司令部随后称，大规模行动已完成，打击了数十个伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）目标。
文中称伊朗此前向约旦境内美军目标发射导弹，袭击被拦截。
美国军方称中东部署逾5万名美军，维持高度戒备。
报道称，美伊上周五暂停交火、围绕霍尔木兹海峡通行展开的谈判在周二破裂。
一名以色列高级官员称，美以评估外交协议、加强经济压力与封锁、重启军事行动三种路径；内塔尼亚胡未向特朗普推荐单一方案。
沙特国防部长哈立德·本·萨勒曼在华盛顿会见美国副总统万斯，报道还称其与特朗普讨论地区局势。

作者观点与证据

文章将此次行动描述为此前对等报复之外的升级，并认为外交窗口被压缩。开始袭击和打击完成来自美国中央司令部公开表述；具体目标范围、后续方案和美以内部讨论主要来自匿名官员与媒体报道，未附独立战损核验。

与相关标的的关系

UKOIL（布伦特原油差价合约）与USOIL（美国原油差价合约）受地区冲突、霍尔木兹通航和潜在封锁路径影响；XAUUSD（现货黄金美元报价）反映避险需求变化。文章未提供这些标的的价格反应或供应中断规模。

后续跟踪

美军是否公布目标清单、行动持续时间和损失评估。
伊朗对驻区美军及海运通道的回应。
美以三种政策路径是否转化为正式措施。
霍尔木兹谈判与停火安排能否重启。

原文

美军对伊朗发动“强力报复”，特朗普说到做到：轮到我们了！-市场参考-金十数据

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美军对伊朗发动“强力报复”，特朗普说到做到：轮到我们了！

伊朗周二晚向约旦美军基地发射导弹，美军的报复性打击在周三夜间落地。此前短暂出现的外交窗口再次关闭。美军称这是一次强力回应，规模远超此前数周那种对等报复。以色列总理正与美方密商下一步选项。

美国军方于当地时间周三晚间开始对伊朗发动军事打击，称此次行动是对伊朗周二向约旦境内美军发动导弹袭击的 “强力回应” 。

美国中央司令部在X上的一篇帖子中表示：“美军于美国东部时间今天（周三）晚上8点开始对伊朗发动袭击。这次袭击是对伊朗昨天试图袭击驻中东美军的有力回应。”

据伊朗官方媒体Press TV当地时间周四凌晨报道，美国对伊朗发动新一轮袭击后，伊朗南部多个地点传出爆炸声。

不久后，美国中央司令部声明：已完成针对伊朗的大规模打击行动。美国军方对数十个伊朗革命卫队目标进行了打击。目前有超过5万名美国军人部署在中东，保持高度警惕，随时准备作战。

此次行动发生在美国总统特朗普公开誓言报复数小时后，也意味着原本短暂出现的外交缓和空间再次被压缩。一名美国官员表示，此次打击规模将超过美国过去数周实施的对等报复行动，涉及更广范围和更多目标。

此次行动标志着美伊之间此前短暂的停火再次面临破裂风险，也使特朗普政府重新回到军事升级与外交谈判之间的抉择之中。

“我们会非常狠地打他们，”特朗普周三在椭圆形办公室对记者表示，“因为轮到我们了。”

此前，美伊双方于上周五暂停交火，为谈判人员就船只通过+霍尔木兹海峡的安排争取时间。特朗普政府原本希望相关谈判能够缓解地区紧张局势，并推动更广泛协议的讨论。但这轮谈判最终于周二破裂。数小时后，伊朗便向约旦境内目标发动导弹袭击。

虽然伊朗周二发动的导弹袭击最终被成功拦截，但这一事件增加了特朗普政府采取行动的压力，也可能导致美伊冲突在战争进入第六个月之际重新升级。

特朗普周三表示，伊朗方面一直请求他不要进行报复，但最终仍然选择发动攻击。“但他们还是开了枪，”特朗普说。他表示，伊朗现在“知道报复要来了”。“他们知道接下来会发生什么。他们要求我们不要这样做。”

对于是否会持续采取军事回应，特朗普表示：“我总是还击吗？基本上是的。”

美以评估三种路线，内塔尼亚胡称决定权在特朗普

在特朗普政府评估下一步行动时，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡周三在华盛顿与美国国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯（Pete Hegseth）举行会面。

此前一天，特朗普与内塔尼亚胡在白宫会晤期间，对未来对伊政策进行了讨论。

一名以色列高级官员表示，双方对三种方案进行了“临床式”评估，分别是推动外交协议、扩大经济压力并加强封锁，以及重新启动军事行动。

美以官员对不同方案可能带来的成本和实施时间进行了分析。

据该官员透露，内塔尼亚胡并未向特朗普明确推荐某一方案，而是表示最终决定权属于美国总统。这名官员表示，谈判仍可以继续推进，同时配合增加经济压力措施，例如限制伊朗陆路贸易通道。

周三，沙特国防部长哈立德·本·萨勒曼（Khalid bin Salman）在华盛顿会见了美国副总统万斯，因美伊战争威胁到了沙特王国。一位知情人士告诉CNN，沙特国防部长还会见了特朗普并讨论了地区事态发展。

在他访问之前不到一天，美国和沙特对伊拉克境内与伊朗有关的“后勤和武器基地”进行了联合军事行动。他与内塔尼亚胡同时位于华盛顿，不过一位消息人士称，时间纯属巧合。

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美军酝酿两周强化空袭

重要性4/5 中高

潜在军事升级对能源运输与避险资产相关，但方案尚处内部讨论，未有正式行动确认。

来源信息

来源：金十数据发布日期：2026-07-29归档状态：ready重要性：4/5 中高评级理由：潜在军事升级对能源运输与避险资产相关，但方案尚处内部讨论，未有正式行动确认。

中文摘要

核心结论

《华尔街日报》报道称，美国中央司令部司令库珀向特朗普提出持续10至14天的强化空袭选项，目标是显著削弱伊朗导弹能力。该方案仍属内部决策讨论，参联会主席凯恩对防空拦截弹库存和长期战争后果提出警告。

重要性评级

评级：4/5（中高）

文章涉及可能改变地区冲突强度的军事选项，发表于美东时间 07/29 19:54（UTC+8 07/30 07:54）；但尚未见正式命令或行动确认，证据主要来自匿名消息源。

关键事实

报道称，中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀提出的高强度空袭方案可能持续10至14天。
方案目标是大幅削弱伊朗导弹能力；特朗普据称可在该方案与较小规模行动之间选择。
参联会主席丹·凯恩担忧防空拦截弹库存下降，并提示军事行动可能出现后续战争风险。
文中称，库珀认为此前对等报复未能阻止伊朗威胁霍尔木兹油轮或向地区美军基地发射导弹。
报道称特朗普6月曾表示伊朗可能保留约21%至22%的导弹，分析人士认为实际库存可能更高。
文中还称，伊朗7月中旬袭击约旦穆瓦法克·萨尔蒂空军基地，造成3名美军士兵死亡；本周二又向美军发动导弹袭击。
报道称若美方恢复大规模作战模式，以色列可能参与。

作者观点与证据

文章把10至14天空袭描绘为美国扩大军事行动的关键决策节点，并突出军方内部对效果、拦截弹消耗与升级风险的分歧。计划、官员判断和内部讨论均来自《华尔街日报》所引知情人士；五角大楼发言人未确认具体方案，导弹剩余比例也未获独立核验。

与相关标的的关系

UKOIL（布伦特原油差价合约）和USOIL（美国原油差价合约）受潜在冲突升级、海峡安全和出口风险影响；XAUUSD（现货黄金美元报价）受避险情绪变化影响。该文描述的是未落地方案，不能视为已发生的供给冲击。

后续跟踪

白宫或五角大楼是否确认行动授权。
美军防空拦截弹库存与地区防御部署变化。
伊朗导弹库存和发射能力的独立评估。
以色列是否加入后续行动。

原文

特朗普面临艰难选择：美军司令提出两周“猛轰计划”，伊朗战火或升级-市场参考-金十数据

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特朗普面临艰难选择：美军司令提出两周“猛轰计划”，伊朗战火或升级

据美媒，美国中央司令部提出持续10至14天的猛烈空袭计划，意图一举瘫痪伊朗导弹能力。然而美军防空弹药告急，参谋长联席会议主席警告“第二、第三重后果”。两周狂轰滥炸的选项摆在桌上，特朗普会按下按钮吗？

《华尔街日报》报道称，美国总统特朗普正面临伊朗战争以来最艰难的军事决策之一：是批准一项可能持续10至14天的大规模空袭行动，还是选择有限打击并继续寻求外交空间。

据知情人士透露，美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀（Brad Cooper）上将已经制定了一套针对伊朗的强化空袭方案，目标是大幅削弱伊朗导弹能力，改变当前美伊互相攻击却难以打破僵局的局面。

这一方案是在特朗普准备回应伊朗周二导弹突袭的背景下摆上决策桌的。特朗普可以选择批准库珀提出的“高端选项”，也可以采取规模较小的军事行动，但后者可能需要依靠后续外交努力降温。

美国国会中的批评者警告，新的空袭可能让美国进一步陷入长期战争。

库珀主张扩大打击，凯恩警告战争风险

特朗普近期一直在外交尝试和强硬威胁之间摇摆。他此前曾表示，可能重新采取美以与伊朗战争初期的大规模军事行动模式。

一名美国政府高级官员周三表示，特朗普“正处于升级战事的情绪中”，但仍在权衡具体回应力度。

熟悉库珀想法的人士表示，这位中央司令部司令认为，过去采取的对等报复性打击并未达到预期效果，既没有阻止德黑兰继续威胁霍尔木兹海峡油轮，也没有阻止伊朗向该地区美军基地发射导弹。

在库珀看来，如果美国希望军事行动真正产生效果，就必须提升空袭规模，显著削弱伊朗导弹威胁。他的方案认为，通过更猛烈的攻击降低伊朗反击能力，美国自身对防空拦截弹的需求也可能下降。

不过，参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩（Dan Caine）上将则更加谨慎。

据知情人士透露，凯恩经常提醒白宫关注军事行动可能带来的“第二重和第三重后果”。他尤其担忧美国防空拦截弹库存正在减少，这些武器不仅需要用于应对伊朗威胁，也需要保护全球其他地区的美军基地和盟友。

凯恩认为，库存不足并不会完全阻止美国重新发动大规模行动，但会提高行动风险。

库珀和凯恩的发言人均拒绝对两人之间的内部讨论发表评论。

特朗普释放强硬信号，以色列可能参与升级行动

特朗普与最高军事顾问讨论战争方案的地点，是上周在特拉华州的一架“空军一号”专机上。

当时，特朗普刚刚目睹四名在伊朗战争中阵亡的美军士兵遗体从海外运抵美国。他随后与凯恩、国防部长赫格塞斯进行闭门讨论。

参加会议的还有库珀。这位海军将领此前长期在佛罗里达州坦帕市中央司令部总部指挥战争，当天专程参加阵亡士兵遗体迎接仪式。相比凯恩和赫格塞斯经常进入白宫椭圆形办公室向特朗普汇报战况，库珀在特朗普身边的曝光度较低。

据报道，自战争爆发以来，库珀仅少数几次亲自向特朗普汇报，双方也只是偶尔通电话。他最近一次与特朗普面对面交流，正是在“空军一号”上的这场会议。

以色列总理内塔尼亚胡周二会见特朗普后，于周三与赫格塞斯举行会谈。

美国官员表示，如果特朗普政府决定恢复大规模作战模式，以色列军队可能会参与美国可能发动的更大规模军事行动。

特朗普周三上午表示，他已经决定采取报复措施，但没有公布具体方案，同时仍保留谈判空间。

“我们会把他们揍得屁滚尿流，”特朗普接受福克斯新闻采访时表示，“我们会狠狠地打他们。”

随后他补充说：“我们会让他们继续说下去。”

五角大楼首席发言人肖恩·帕内尔（Sean Parnell）在声明中表示，赫格塞斯、库珀和凯恩在伊朗行动问题上保持一致。

“赫格塞斯部长、中央司令部司令库珀上将和凯恩主席在涉及伊朗的海外行动问题上完全保持一致，在使命、战略和决心上团结一致，”帕内尔说。

他还表示：“战争部已装弹上膛，随时准备在接到总统一声令下后立即执行指令。”

美军内部争论持续，伊朗袭击能力再次显现

库珀长期认为，只要给予足够时间，美国军事力量能够对伊朗造成严重打击。不过，一些军事专家认为，仅依靠空中力量从未赢得任何战争。

特朗普6月初接受NBC《与媒体面对面》（Meet the Press）采访时表示，伊朗可能还保留约21%至22%的导弹。一些分析人士认为，伊朗实际库存可能更多。

库珀认为，大规模空袭可以削弱伊朗导弹能力以及后续报复能力。与此同时，凯恩提出的方案则强调，在防空拦截弹库存有限的情况下，美军需要重新调整地区防御部署，加强关键目标保护。

据知情人士透露，在制定密集空袭方案过程中，库珀获得了赫格塞斯的支持。

但政府内部和外部的一些怀疑者认为，美国在战争初期已经对伊朗地下导弹设施和生产工厂发动大量攻击，但伊朗仍然能够恢复行动。这些人士指出，伊朗随后从地下设施中重新部署发射装置，并通过改变导弹飞行路径和机动方式规避美军防御，同时利用无人机扩大攻击能力。

伊朗导弹能力在7月中旬的一次袭击中得到体现。当时，一枚伊朗导弹袭击约旦穆瓦法克·萨尔蒂空军基地（Muwaffaq Salti Air Base），造成三名美军士兵死亡。本周二，伊朗再次向美军发动导弹袭击。

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TA没有写简介，内敛也是一种表达

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打开原文

海峡船流回升但运价高企

重要性4/5 中高

提供了船流、原油外运量和运价等可观测运输指标，对原油风险判断直接相关。

来源信息

来源：金十数据发布日期：2026-07-30归档状态：ready重要性：4/5 中高评级理由：提供了船流、原油外运量和运价等可观测运输指标，对原油风险判断直接相关。

中文摘要

核心结论

巴基斯坦称美伊围绕地区稳定和霍尔木兹局势的沟通仍在进行；Kpler监测到海峡船流较上周回升。通航数据与护航消息显示部分运输恢复，但超级油轮高租金、暗航和绕道说明航运风险成本仍高。

重要性评级

评级：4/5（中高）

该文提供霍尔木兹实际船流、原油外运量和运价的具体数据，发表于美东时间 07/30 04:30（UTC+8 07/30 16:30），直接服务能源运输状态判断；外交进展与部分数据仍需交叉核验。

关键事实

巴基斯坦外交部发言人塔希尔·安德拉比称，美伊就恢复地区稳定及霍尔木兹局势的沟通仍在进行。
Kpler（航运与商品数据机构）监测显示，本周三有14艘大宗商品船舶双向穿越霍尔木兹海峡，高于上周个位数水平。
美国能源部长克里斯·赖特称，美国海军为部分油轮提供武装护航，过去一周日均约650万桶原油运出海峡。
文中称超级油轮日租金接近50万美元。
卡塔尔“Al Areesh”号液化天然气船据称于周四离开波斯湾，为该国三周来首次发货。
报道称部分船舶关闭应答器穿越海峡，红海方向的油轮出现绕道或在沙特延布港中转。
埃及西迪基里尔港被描述为亚洲买家获取沙特原油的潜在中转点。

作者观点与证据

文章将外交沟通和船流回升解读为航道运输出现恢复迹象，同时强调风险溢价未消退。巴基斯坦发言人和美国能源部长的表述属于具名来源；Kpler数据、船舶轨迹及租金未附原始数据表、合同样本或完整追踪范围。

与相关标的的关系

UKOIL（布伦特原油差价合约）和USOIL（美国原油差价合约）直接受日均原油外运量、可通航船数、护航覆盖和运费变化影响。14艘船舶与650万桶日均外运反映局部流动恢复，未能单独证明区域出口已恢复常态。

后续跟踪

Kpler对油轮、液化天然气船和总船流的连续读数。
美国护航范围及过境许可变化。
超级油轮租金和保险成本是否回落。
美伊外交沟通是否出现可核验协议。

原文

巴基斯坦爆料：美伊尚未“关上大门”，对话仍在持续-市场参考-金十数据

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巴基斯坦爆料：美伊尚未“关上大门”，对话仍在持续

美伊军事对抗升级之际，巴基斯坦披露双方正通过外交渠道沟通以稳定局势。尽管霍尔木兹海峡冲突不断，但该航道货运量已现回升，能源保卫战进入关键期。

在霍尔木兹海峡局势持续紧张之际，巴基斯坦外交部发言人塔希尔·安德拉比（Tahir Andrabi）在近日的例行记者会上披露了一则消息：美国与伊朗之间关于恢复地区稳定、特别是针对霍尔木兹海峡局势的谈判“仍在进行中”。

安德拉比强调，巴基斯坦始终致力于推动外交解决方案，并敦促美伊双方通过对话化解分歧。这一表态为动荡的中东局势注入了一丝不寻常的信号。就在此前不久，美伊冲突再度激化。为报复伊朗对美军目标的袭击，美国中央司令部对伊朗境内数十个目标发动了大规模空袭，旨在削弱德黑兰威胁美军及其盟友、乃至干扰国际航运的能力。

尽管硝烟未散，但作为全球石油贸易“咽喉”的霍尔木兹海峡，航运活动却展现出了惊人的韧性。

根据市场情报机构Kpler的最新监测数据，本周三共有14艘大宗商品船只双向穿越霍尔木兹海峡，较上周个位数的通航量明显回升。美国能源部长克里斯·赖特（Chris Wright）证实，美国海军正在为部分油轮提供武装护航。

赖特透露，在美军的军事支持下，过去一周每天约有650万桶原油成功运出海峡。他强调：“我们正利用军事力量确保全球能源供给，维持精炼产品从该地区的持续输出。”

航运业的神经依然紧绷。尽管通航量回升，但风险溢价已推高至惊人水平。据悉，一艘超级油轮近期开出了近50万美元/天的“天价”租金，反映出贸易商在动荡局势下维持供应链的沉重成本。

从具体的船舶轨迹来看，卡塔尔的“Al Areesh”号液化天然气船已于周四顺利驶离波斯湾，这是该国三周以来的首次发货。同时，也有部分船舶选择通过关闭应答器（暗航）的方式穿越海峡，以避开潜在风险。

霍尔木兹海峡的动荡正迫使全球航运版图发生偏移。在红海方向，由于受伊朗支持的胡塞武装威胁，部分油轮选择绕道或在沙特阿拉伯的延布港（Yanbu）寻求中转。

值得关注的是，埃及地中海沿岸的西迪基里尔港（Sidi Kerir）正逐渐成为亚洲买家获取沙特原油的新枢纽。多艘原本前往亚洲的超级油轮（如Olympic Luck等）目前正停留在埃及附近海域等待指令，暗示航运公司正在实时根据地缘政治风险调整航线。

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伊朗暂停海峡过境许可

重要性5/5 高

最新的海峡许可状态表述直接影响能源运输中断预期和避险情绪。

来源信息

来源：金十数据发布日期：2026-07-31归档状态：ready重要性：5/5 高评级理由：最新的海峡许可状态表述直接影响能源运输中断预期和避险情绪。

中文摘要

核心结论

伊朗波斯湾海峡事务管理局称，霍尔木兹海峡当前不具备安全通航条件，过境许可将在“秩序与平静恢复”后按申请顺序恢复。该表述将通航恢复与地区军事局势绑定，且没有给出恢复日期。

重要性评级

评级：5/5（高）

这是批次中发布时间最新的海峡通行状态表述，发表于美东时间 07/31 10:39（UTC+8 07/31 22:39），直接关联能源海运和避险情绪；战损叙述缺少原始卫星材料支撑。

关键事实

伊朗波斯湾海峡事务管理局（PGSA）在社交平台称，美军在相关海域持续行动使霍尔木兹海峡不具备安全通航条件。
声明称申请通道尚未完全关闭，但只有“秩序与平静恢复”后才按申请顺序逐步恢复过境许可。
文中称此前《伊斯兰堡谅解备忘录》承认伊朗对海峡航运的管理角色，但伊朗认为美军行动使该安排失效。
特朗普称美国将继续对伊朗实施强力打击。
文章称“经济怒火行动”（Operation Economic Fury，经济怒火行动）已由打击雷达和弹药库延伸至基础设施。
文中引述智库和卫星图像称，阿巴斯港周边桥梁、隧道、南部通信线路、火车站及海水淡化厂遭破坏。
文中称伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）相关的军民两用目标认定及基础设施袭击，受到法律专家的国际人道法质疑。

作者观点与证据

文章把许可暂停描述为海峡进入无限期停摆，并把美军基础设施打击视为冲突升级。PGSA声明与特朗普表态是主要依据；有关航运“完全中断”、卫星战损、行动范围和法律评价没有附原始声明、影像或独立核验材料。

与相关标的的关系

UKOIL（布伦特原油差价合约）和USOIL（美国原油差价合约）直接受海峡许可恢复时间、船舶实际通行和出口中断程度影响；XAUUSD（现货黄金美元报价）受地缘冲突避险情绪影响。声明未提供被阻船舶数、原油减量或许可恢复时点。

后续跟踪

PGSA是否公布许可规则、恢复条件及获准船舶数量。
海峡油轮和液化天然气船的实际通行数据。
美军行动及基础设施损害的独立卫星核验。
美伊停火或航运协调安排是否恢复。

原文

伊朗宣布霍尔木兹海峡暂停通行，特朗普“将继续实施强有力的打击”！-市场参考-金十数据

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伊朗宣布霍尔木兹海峡暂停通行，特朗普“将继续实施强有力的打击”！

伊朗波斯湾海峡事务管理局表示，鉴于美军的“侵略性举动”，目前海峡不具备安全通航条件。只有在“秩序与平静恢复”后，才会按照申请顺序逐步恢复签发过境许可。

伊朗波斯湾海峡事务管理局（PGSA）通过社交平台发布严正声明，由于美国在相关海域持续采取军事行动，全球能源运输大动脉——霍尔木兹海峡的过境航行已完全中断。

这一消息标志着自今年2月28日美伊爆发军事冲突以来，地区局势已恶化至新阶段。

PGSA在声明中指出，鉴于美军的“侵略性举动”，目前海峡不具备安全通航条件。尽管此前双方曾达成《伊斯兰堡谅解备忘录》，承认伊朗对海峡航运的管理角色，但德黑兰方面指责美军的军事干扰已让该协议名存实亡。

伊朗方面重申，海峡内的所有航运必须严格遵循伊朗制定的程序。虽然申请通道尚未完全关闭，但PGSA强调，只有在“秩序与平静恢复”后，才会按照申请顺序逐步恢复签发过境许可。这实际上宣告了这一战略咽喉进入无限期停摆。

随后美国总统特朗普表示伊朗战争“进展顺利”，美国正在重创伊朗， “我们一直在赢，我们将继续对伊朗实施强有力的打击。”

美国政府的打击策略正发生质变。特朗普政府发起的“经济怒火行动”（Operation Economic Fury）已从最初的雷达和弹药库袭击，转向大规模破坏伊朗的民生基础设施。

据智库及卫星图像显示，美军近期集中轰炸了连接港口城市阿巴斯港的多条桥梁和隧道。南部的通信线路、火车站及海水淡化厂也遭到严重损毁。特朗普曾在接受媒体采访时发出公开威胁：“如果谈判无法取得进展，我可以在一小时内摧毁伊朗绝大多数桥梁和发电厂。”

美方辩称这些设施属于“军民两用”目标，旨在遏制伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）的机动能力。然而，法律专家指出，此类针对关键基础设施的袭击正游走在国际人道主义法律的红线边缘。

经济失速：级联效应引发的生存危机

这种“精准打击基建”的策略正产生远超此前制裁的破坏力。伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬坦言，经济已成为这场冲突中“最重要的战场”。

尽管民生面临巨大压力，但德黑兰并无妥协迹象。伊朗议长、首席谈判代表卡利巴夫对此强硬回应称：“这场战争的方程式非常清晰：全有或全无。如果伊朗的安全得不到保障，没有任何基础设施是安全的。”

尽管伊朗长期适应制裁，具备极高的“痛感忍耐力”，但随着美军不断加码打击力度，这场关于资源、通道与生存权的极限博弈，正将全球能源安全拖入前所未有的不确定性中。

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打开原文

美联储维持利率并现鹰派异议

重要性5/5 高

官方利率决定、通胀表述及3名委员的加息异议直接影响跨资产宏观解读。

来源信息

来源：Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System发布日期：2026-07-29归档状态：ready重要性：5/5 高评级理由：官方利率决定、通胀表述及3名委员的加息异议直接影响跨资产宏观解读。

中文摘要

核心结论

联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以9比3维持联邦基金利率目标区间在3.50%至3.75%，继续维持银行体系充裕准备金。声明承认中东冲突加剧不确定性，并称能源等领域供给冲击推高部分价格；3名委员主张加息25个基点。

重要性评级

评级：5/5（高）

这是美联储的官方一手政策声明，发布于美东时间 07/29 14:00（UTC+8 07/30 02:00）。利率决定、通胀表述和3票加息异议为跨资产宏观阅读提供直接政策证据。

关键事实

FOMC以9比3通过维持利率的决定，目标区间为3.50%至3.75%。
委员会继续执行维持银行体系充裕准备金的政策。
声明称经济活动以稳健速度扩张，生产率增长和资本投资强劲。
声明称就业增长与劳动力供给大体匹配，失业率变化不大。
通胀仍高于2%目标，能源等领域的供给冲击推高了部分价格。
声明将中东冲突列为较高不确定性的部分来源。
贝丝·哈马克、尼尔·卡什卡利和洛丽·洛根反对维持利率，主张本次加息25个基点。

作者观点与证据

文件本身没有媒体作者立场，属于美联储发布的政策决定与经济评估。其证据价值来自官方投票结果和声明措辞；文本未提供委员预测、通胀分项数据、未来利率路径或异议委员的完整理由。

与相关标的的关系

文章未列出特定代码，但政策利率、能源供给冲击和加息异议直接关联利率曲线、美元、股票估值及黄金的宏观定价环境。该声明不包含对任何单一资产的价格判断。

后续跟踪

后续就业、通胀与能源价格数据是否支持声明判断。
异议委员对通胀和政策路径的进一步说明。
美联储后续会议的投票结构与利率指引。
中东冲突对能源价格及通胀分项的实际传导。

原文

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

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July 29, 2026

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 – 3 vote:

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.

Voting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.

For media inquiries, please email [email protected] or call 202-452-2955.

Implementation Note issued July 29, 2026

Last Update:

July 29, 2026

打开原文

美伊暂缓打击与霍尔木兹开通

重要性5/5 高

涉及美伊军事行动和霍尔木兹通航这一原油运输核心变量，且仍有实际船舶安全事件；发布时间较早且协议未获正式确认。

来源信息

来源：Associated Press发布日期：2026-08-01归档状态：ready重要性：5/5 高评级理由：涉及美伊军事行动和霍尔木兹通航这一原油运输核心变量，且仍有实际船舶安全事件；发布时间较早且协议未获正式确认。

中文摘要

核心结论

美联社（AP）报道，特朗普称美国将暂缓对伊朗发动新的打击，前提是尽快完成一项结束已持续五个月战争的协议；他列出的条件包括立即、全面开放霍尔木兹海峡，以及终结伊朗核威胁。该表态与海峡内仍发生船舶遇袭、伊朗无人机袭击科威特并行，协议能否落地尚无正式文本或各方确认。

重要性评级

评级：5/5（高）

文章直接涉及霍尔木兹通航与美伊军事行动暂停，两者影响原油海运风险溢价，且关联UKOIL（英国布伦特原油）与USOIL（美国西得州原油）。AP为一手新闻机构，但关键协议仍主要来自特朗普声明和匿名官员信息。

关键事实

特朗普在08/01（未给出具体时刻）的社交媒体帖文中称，将命令美军暂缓新的对伊朗打击，条件是能够迅速达成协议；以色列也同意参与完成协议的承诺。
他称潜在协议将包括霍尔木兹海峡立即、全面开放，以及终结伊朗核威胁；文中未披露谈判文本、签署方或执行安排。
沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼在08/01与特朗普通话，据知情人士说法，沙特担心冲突升级后伊朗报复海湾国家能源基础设施；白宫仅确认双方通话，未说明细节。
08/01，科威特军方称正应对伊朗无人机袭击，部分重要设施受损但无人伤亡。
英国海军称，一艘油轮在阿曼近海霍尔木兹海峡遭击中，另一艘船附近发生爆炸；前者发动机舱受损，二者均未报告伤亡。
文中称伊朗持续袭击未经其许可试图穿越海峡的船只；另有卫星图像显示，一艘受制裁油轮在阿曼近海搁浅后疑似漏油。
胡塞武装称已迫使8艘沙特船舶绕行好望角以避开曼德海峡封锁；该项说法来自胡塞方面。

作者观点与证据

报道将美方暂停打击描述为一项附条件的政治声明，未将其视作停火已成事实。支撑海运风险仍存的证据包括英国海军的船舶事件通报、科威特军方声明及AP审阅的卫星图像；沙特对能源设施报复的担忧来自匿名知情人士，协议参数也缺少伊朗方面的同步确认。

与相关标的的关系

UKOIL与USOIL的直接关联在于霍尔木兹海峡是波斯湾原油外运通道。通航承诺若获得执行，可降低运输受阻风险；油轮遇袭、绕航和海湾能源设施安全担忧仍显示实际航运条件未恢复稳定。

时效性与限制（仅在有新增信息时）

文章发布于08/01（未给出具体时刻），截至08/08检索时已是一周前信息。正文记录的是谈判参数和军事事件快照，未提供海峡正式重开、船舶通行规则或独立核查后的执行数据。

后续跟踪

美伊及以色列是否公布正式协议、签署主体和执行时间表。
霍尔木兹海峡的实际通航量、绕航比例与新的船舶安全事件。
伊朗对海湾能源设施或商船的后续行动。
美国暂停打击的范围、期限及其是否与海峡安排挂钩。

原文

Trump says he will order halt to Iran strikes after parameters reached for deal to end war

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Trump says he will order halt to Iran strikes after parameters reached for deal to end war

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Relatives and friends grieve over the body of Hassan Qahman at a hospital morgue after he was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City, Saturday, Aug. 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Jehad Alshrafi)

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Motorbikes drive past a billboard showing a graphic of a man wearing a shirt showing the face of late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed during a joint U.S. and Israeli strike on Feb. 28, with words calling upon the avengers of Imam Hussein, one of Shiite Islam’s most beloved historical saints, in a square in downtown Tehran, Iran, Saturday, Aug. 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi) CORRECTS: Amends wording for clarity.

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A Palestinian woman inspects the scene of an Israeli airstrike near al-Aqsa Hospital in Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip, Saturday, Aug. 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

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Palestinians inspect the scene of an Israeli airstrike near al-Aqsa Hospital in Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip, Saturday, Aug. 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

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A plume of smoke rises following an Israeli military strike in Nuseirat, central Gaza Strip, Friday, July 31, 2026. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Trump says he will order halt to Iran strikes after parameters reached for deal to end war

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Relatives and friends grieve over the body of Hassan Qahman at a hospital morgue after he was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City, Saturday, Aug. 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Jehad Alshrafi)

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Relatives and friends grieve over the body of Hassan Qahman at a hospital morgue after he was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City, Saturday, Aug. 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Jehad Alshrafi)

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A Palestinian woman inspects the scene of an Israeli airstrike near al-Aqsa Hospital in Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip, Saturday, Aug. 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

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A Palestinian woman inspects the scene of an Israeli airstrike near al-Aqsa Hospital in Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip, Saturday, Aug. 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

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Palestinians inspect the scene of an Israeli airstrike near al-Aqsa Hospital in Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip, Saturday, Aug. 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

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Palestinians inspect the scene of an Israeli airstrike near al-Aqsa Hospital in Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip, Saturday, Aug. 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

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A plume of smoke rises following an Israeli military strike in Nuseirat, central Gaza Strip, Friday, July 31, 2026. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

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A plume of smoke rises following an Israeli military strike in Nuseirat, central Gaza Strip, Friday, July 31, 2026. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

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AAMER MADHANI and SAMY MAGDY

Updated [hour]:[minute] [AMPM] [timezone], [monthFull] [day], [year]

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CAIRO (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump said in a Saturday evening social media post he will order American forces to hold off on new strikes against Iran, claiming Mideast allies had reached the parameters of a deal to end the five-month old war.

The emerging deal “would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

“Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL,” Trump said.

Israel agreed to join the U.S. in the commitment to try to complete the agreement with Iran that would bring about an end to the war, he added.

Saudis concerned about Iran retaliation

Prior to the announcement, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto leader, spoke with Trump by phone and raised concerns about the U.S. potentially escalating the conflict with Iran , according to a person familiar with the leaders’ discussion.

The Saudis, according to the person briefed on the substance of the call but not authorized to comment publicly, are concerned that Tehran could respond with attacks on the energy infrastructure of the kingdom and other Gulf countries.

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The crown prince during Saturday’s call sought clarity from Trump on what potential new action he was weighing to take against Iran, the person said.

A White House official, who was not authorized to comment publicly and requested anonymity, confirmed the leaders spoke Saturday but did not offer any detail.

Kuwait said on Saturday it responded to a new round of drone attacks from Iran while a tanker was struck in the strategic waterway.

Israel carried out heavy strikes on the Gaza Strip after the Palestinian militant group Hamas agreed to disarm.

Here are the most important developments in the Middle East today:

US threatened new strikes before announcement

Trump on Friday had threatened more strikes on Iran as the U.S. pressed for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaking to reporters during a meeting with members of his Cabinet at the Camp David presidential retreat in Maryland, Trump said “we just want to win” in Iran and said the U.S. would hit Iran “very hard” until they couldn’t take it anymore, he said.

Our flagship newsletter breaks down the biggest headlines of the day.

Later that day, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt expressed the U.S. administration’s frustration that Tehran had last month signed a memorandum of understanding with the U.S. on a truce but then quickly “broke it, shot at commercial ships, and killed American soldiers.”

On Saturday, the U.S. State Department issued new security alerts for Americans in 10 countries in the region to exercise heightened caution due to the escalating tensions with Iran.

The warnings — covering Bahrain, Israel, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates — urged U.S. citizens to prepare for the possibility of flight cancellations, temporary airspace closures and other travel disruptions.

New attacks on Kuwait and shipping

Kuwait’s military said Saturday that its forces were responding to drone attacks which were part of Iran’s assaults on the country.

In a statement, Maj. Gen. Saud Abdulaziz Al-Otaibi, spokesperson for Kuwait’s Defense Ministry, said the drones hit “a number of vital facilities,” including a government structure in the country’s north. He said there were no casualties.

The British Navy said Saturday that a tanker was struck and a separate explosion hit close to a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Oman. No casualties were reported in either incident, it said. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Organization said an unknown projectile hit the vessel on Friday 11 nautical miles northeast of Lima, Oman. The attack damaged the vessel’s engine room.

The group said that on Saturday a large splash and an explosion were reported close to another tanker while it was sailing 21 nautical miles northwest of Khasab city.

Separately, crude oil appeared to be leaking and spreading in recent days from a sanctioned tanker grounded off the coast of Oman, close to a marine protected area, satellite images reviewed by The Associated Press show .

Iran has repeatedly attacked vessels attempting to transit through the Strait of Hormuz without its authorization as part of its ongoing conflict with the U.S.

Israel strikes Gaza after Hamas says it will disarm

Intense Israeli strikes Friday night and Saturday killed at least four people in central and northern Gaza and wounded dozens more, according to local health officials.

The strikes overnight in Gaza followed evacuation warnings by Israel’s military, which said on Saturday that it had struck Hamas targets across the territory and dismantled five Hamas storage facilities.

The strikes came after Hamas confirmed Friday that it will disarm in a potential breakthrough for ending the war in Gaza, though major obstacles remain.

Palestinians in Gaza — most of whom are displaced or live in camps — received the news with both hope and skepticism. A 24-year-old tuk-tuk driver, Abdel Moneim Aboul-Roos, who lost his leg in an Israeli strike, told The Associated Press that he doesn’t care about “talk about withdrawal and disarmament” as long as essentials like food and medicine remain lacking.

Israel has not officially commented on the Hamas deal, which is part of a U.S.-brokered ceasefire announced last October.

That agreement called for Hamas to disarm and hand over power to an independent Palestinian administration. Israel was to withdraw and an International Stabilization Force was to be deployed.

In a post on X Friday, Israeli far-right lawmaker Itamar Ben-Gvir called the deal “unacceptable” and said the killings in Gaza must continue. “Israel must win,” he said.

Egypt, a key Gaza ceasefire mediator, lauded Hamas and other Palestinian groups for “their positive response” in the phased peace plan, Egyptian state-run media reported.

The AP is tracking the progress of Trump’s plan to end the Israel-Hamas war.

Click here for full coverage from AP on the disarmament deal for Hamas.

Elsewhere in the region

— Houthi rebels forced eight Saudi ships to reroute from the Bab el-Mandeb strait after the Iranian-backed rebels announced a blockade on Saudi shipping in the choke point. Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree, the military spokesperson for the Houthis, said in a statement Friday that the vessels changed route to the Cape of Good Hope around Africa to avert the blockade.

— In southern Lebanon , Israeli forces set off explosions Friday to destroy an underground tunnel network under the Crusader-built Beaufort Castle that Israel says had been used by Iran-backed Hezbollah militants as a command center. The 12th-century castle, also known as Al-Shaqif, was seized by Israeli forces in May. It was recently added to UNESCO’s World Heritage List over Israel’s objections.

— Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun said the Israeli operation sent “negative messages” ahead of upcoming talks in Rome. Israeli and Lebanese negotiating teams are set to meet again there to continue hammering out a plan under which Israel would withdraw from southern Lebanon in exchange for Hezbollah’s disarmament.

— An Israeli army officer was moderately wounded in an encounter with Hezbollah militants in southern Lebanon overnight into Saturday, Israel’s military said. There was no immediate comment from Lebanese authorities or Hezbollah. Thirty-eight Israeli soldiers have been killed in Lebanon or northern Israel since that conflict reignited when Hezbollah fired at Israel shortly after the start of the Iran war.

___

Madhani reported from Washington.

AAMER MADHANI

Madhani is a White House reporter for the Associated Press whose reporting focuses on U.S. foreign policy. Contact him securely on Signal at aamermadhani.39

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SAMY MAGDY

Magdy is a Middle East reporter for The Associated Press, based in Cairo. He focuses on conflict, migration and human rights abuses.

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伊阿曼海峡协议进入草拟末期

重要性5/5 高

最新报道同时给出海峡谈判进度、船流恢复幅度与船舶安全事件，是判断原油运输风险状态的高密度输入。

来源信息

来源：Associated Press发布日期：2026-08-06归档状态：ready重要性：5/5 高评级理由：最新报道同时给出海峡谈判进度、船流恢复幅度与船舶安全事件，是判断原油运输风险状态的高密度输入。

中文摘要

核心结论

伊朗外交部称，与阿曼就霍尔木兹海峡达成安排的联合声明已进入草拟最后阶段；一名匿名美国官员称，任何临时通道不应设置审批、许可、通行费或收费。海峡船流虽由前一周的45艘次升至07/27至08/02当周的84艘次，仍远低于危机前通常每周逾700艘次，显示通航恢复有限。

重要性评级

评级：5/5（高）

这篇08/06更新将政治谈判进度与可量化船流数据放在同一报道中，直接关联UKOIL与USOIL的供应运输风险。AP引用伊朗官方、匿名美国官员和劳氏船舶情报公司数据，但协议尚未宣布达成，胡塞袭船主张亦未获独立核实。

关键事实

伊朗外交部发言人埃斯梅尔·巴加埃称，与阿曼的霍尔木兹海峡协议处于草拟“最后阶段”；他在08/05（未给出具体时刻）称，若无相关方阻碍，将发布联合声明。
报道称协议可能以美国解除对伊朗港口的封锁为条件；特朗普在08/06（未给出具体时刻）被问及海峡重开协议时拒绝确认，仅称目前“某种程度上已经开放”。
一名匿名美国官员称，任何经霍尔木兹海峡的临时通道不应有审批、许可、通行费或其他收费障碍。
劳氏船舶情报公司（Lloyd’s List Intelligence）统计，07/27至08/02当周海峡通行84艘次，高于前一周45艘次，仍显著低于危机前通常每周逾700艘次。
该公司称过去一周至少两艘船在海峡遭击中，另有多艘报告险些被击中或收到自称代表伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队实体的警告。
战争前，全球约五分之一的交易石油和天然气经由霍尔木兹海峡运输；文中称本轮战争始于2月美以对伊朗的打击。
胡塞武装持续声称袭击红海船只，但这些主张尚未得到独立核实；同时，胡塞在也门袭击造成至少30名政府军死亡、至少50人受伤。

作者观点与证据

报道呈现的主线是谈判接近文本阶段，但不把政治表态等同于航道完全恢复。伊朗外交部和特朗普的说法构成谈判进度证据，劳氏船舶情报公司的周度船流与袭船记录提供运营层面佐证；匿名美国官员所述临时通道条件及胡塞攻击主张的可验证性较弱。

与相关标的的关系

UKOIL与USOIL受霍尔木兹原油及天然气运输恢复速度影响。84艘次相对45艘次的改善说明通行有所回升，但与逾700艘次的危机前水平差距很大，运输瓶颈和安全事件仍是油价相关背景变量。

时效性与限制（仅在有新增信息时）

文章发布于08/06（未给出具体时刻），较08/08检索时间仅两日。它没有披露协议文本、签署时间、解除港口封锁的条件细节，也未给出船流数据的完整统计口径。

后续跟踪

伊朗与阿曼是否公布联合声明，以及美国对港口封锁的具体安排。
每周船流能否持续接近危机前逾700艘次水平。
海峡内船舶遇袭、警告和通行收费是否继续发生。
红海与也门冲突是否增加区域航运安全压力。

原文

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People spend time at a beach as commercial vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)

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A small boat sails past cargo ships and other commercial vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)

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A family visits the Meroe pyramids at the Meroe archaeological site in Bejrawiya, Sudan, Friday, July 31, 2026. (AP Photo/Mohnd Blal)

Possible Strait of Hormuz deal, a large attack in Yemen and other Mideast news

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People spend time at a beach as commercial vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)

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People spend time at a beach as commercial vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)

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A small boat sails past cargo ships and other commercial vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)

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A small boat sails past cargo ships and other commercial vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)

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A family visits the Meroe pyramids at the Meroe archaeological site in Bejrawiya, Sudan, Friday, July 31, 2026. (AP Photo/Mohnd Blal)

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A family visits the Meroe pyramids at the Meroe archaeological site in Bejrawiya, Sudan, Friday, July 31, 2026. (AP Photo/Mohnd Blal)

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Iran says it’s in the final stage of drafting an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz waterway with Oman, while two Israeli soldiers have been killed in Lebanon.

Here’s a look at the latest developments in the Iran war and the wider Middle East on Thursday. Full coverage can be found here .

Iran says a deal with Oman is close

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, has said an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz with Oman , which lies on the other side of the waterway, is in the “final stage” of drafting. Speaking Wednesday, he said a joint statement will be issued “if certain parties do not obstruct this process,” apparently referring to the U.S.

The agreement is likely to be contingent on the U.S. lifting its blockade on Iran’s ports.

A U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly said Thursday that any temporary routes through the Strait of Hormuz will not have impediments such as approvals, permissions, tolls or charges.

Asked Thursday if a deal has been reached with Iran to reopen the vital waterway, U.S. President Donald Trump said he didn’t want to say.

“It has been sort of open right now,” he told reporters in the Oval Office.

The strait is crucial to global shipping and energy supplies. Before the war, which began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in February, about one-fifth of the world’s traded oil and natural gas passed through the waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf.

— Michelle Price in Washington

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Ships struck over the past week in the Strait of Hormuz

At least two ships were hit in the Strait of Hormuz in the past week, while several others reported near misses or warnings from entities claiming to represent Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, according to maritime data company Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

The company added that Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels continued to claim attacks on ships in the Red Sea. The claims could not be independently verified.

Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increased to 84 transits during the week of July 27 to Aug. 2, up from 45 the previous week. But traffic is still far below the more than 700 transits seen in a typical week before the crisis, Lloyd’s List said.

Yemen’s Houthis kill 30 government forces in major attack

More than 10 civilians , including a 4-year-old child, were injured in Saudi Arabia on Thursday after a series of attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, according to the Saudi military.

The attacks, which took place in the southern region of Najran, near the Yemeni border, came hours after the Iran-backed rebels claimed responsibility for another series of strikes in central and eastern Yemen that killed at least 30 government troops and wounded at least 50 others.

The back-to-back attacks mark a major escalation since a truce in 2022 largely halted fighting. The civil war pits the Iran-backed Houthis against a Saudi-led coalition allied with Yemen’s internationally recognized government.

A Houthi leader said Saudi-backed troops were targeted in the attacks and that “hundreds” were either killed or injured. The assaults hit camps for forces of the internationally recognized government in the provinces of Marib and Hadramout, the Yemeni officials said. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.

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Turki al-Malki, a spokesman for the Saudi military, said the later attack wounded seven Saudi nationals, one Yemeni, two Egyptians and one Pakistani expatriate. The Houthis did not release any statement.

Yemen has been embroiled in a civil war since 2014, when the Houthis seized the capital, Sanaa, and much of northern Yemen. The Saudi-led coalition intervened the following year.

— Samy Magdy in Cairo and Baraa Anwer in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Israeli soldiers killed in Lebanon as negotiators meet in Rome

Two Israeli soldiers were killed and another four were seriously wounded in an explosion in southern Lebanon , the Israeli military said Thursday. The deaths are Israel’s first since a shaky truce was implemented in June between Israel and the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah .

The Israeli army launched strikes Wednesday in southern Lebanon in response to what it described as Hezbollah’s violation of the ceasefire and issued a call for residents of another village to flee — the first such warning Israel has issued in weeks.

The escalation came as Lebanese and Israeli negotiators met in Rome to discuss implementation of the June deal under which Israeli forces are supposed to withdraw from areas they occupy in southern Lebanon, in exchange for Hezbollah’s disarmament.

Uganda approves sending troops for international force in Gaza

Ugandan authorities won parliamentary approval Thursday to deploy troops as part of the International Stabilization Force for Gaza.

The 20,000-strong force, proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace in February to ensure “future prosperity and enduring peace,” has not yet materialized.

Several other countries pledged troops to the mission, including Morocco, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Albania and Indonesia, which has since put its commitment of troops on indefinite hold.

The Gaza ceasefire has stalled, as Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said this week that Israel will not withdraw from its current lines in Gaza until Hamas has completely disarmed.

Israeli settler charged in West Bank killing of Palestinian activist

Israeli prosecutors have charged a settler with the killing of a Palestinian community leader last year in the occupied West Bank.

Prosecutors accuse Yinon Levi of reckless manslaughter in the death of prominent Palestinian activist Awdah Hathaleen in July 2025. The charge holds a lesser punishment than murder under Israeli law. The indictment also charges Levi with armed trespassing and malicious property damage.

It is extremely rare for Israel to charge settlers with violence against Palestinians. Israeli rights group B’Tselem said the charges against Levi mark the first time since Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack that an Israeli has been indicted for the death of a Palestinian in the West Bank.

In that time, the group said, Israeli settlers and soldiers have killed at least 1,100 Palestinians in the territory.

Iraq moves to crack down on armed militia groups

Iraq said Thursday that any armed activity outside of state authority after Sept. 30 will be prosecuted under the country’s Anti-Terrorism Law, the latest move in a push to bring all weapons under government control .

Several powerful, Iran-backed armed factions have rejected calls to surrender weapons or dissolve their organizations, saying they remain committed to the “option of resistance.”

Saudi Arabia and the U.S. launched strikes on Iraq last week after Riyadh accused Iraqi militias of using drones to attack its oil facilities.

The retaliatory strikes in Iraq hit bases of the Popular Mobilization Forces, a collection of armed groups close to Iran that are officially part of Iraq’s security forces but often operate outside of state control.

打开原文

伊朗以霍尔木兹施压美国

重要性5/5 高

当日发布，涉及霍尔木兹通航安排和油气贸易关键通道，对原油相关标的具有直接且高时效的背景价值。

来源信息

来源：Associated Press发布日期：2026-08-08归档状态：ready重要性：5/5 高评级理由：当日发布，涉及霍尔木兹通航安排和油气贸易关键通道，对原油相关标的具有直接且高时效的背景价值。

中文摘要

核心结论

美联社认为，伊朗正把对霍尔木兹海峡的实际控制当作迫使美国解除封锁、承认其管理权的筹码；这套策略同时受制于伊朗国内经济恶化、社会动荡风险及美国进一步升级行动的可能性。

重要性评级

评级：5/5（高）

文章发布于08/08（未给出具体时刻），直接涉及全球约五分之一石油和天然气贸易曾经经过的通道，以及伊朗与阿曼的管理安排，和UKOIL（布伦特原油）及USOIL（美国原油）关联紧密。

关键事实

伊朗称接近与阿曼达成管理霍尔木兹海峡的协议，但前提是美国解除封锁；即使伊朗所称没有直接谈判，美国总统特朗普仍须批准。
协议是否允许伊朗收费尚不清楚；若将伊朗对该水道的控制正式化，将改变战前开放国际水道的安排。
伊朗领导层判断，美国先进导弹拦截器库存减少、战争在美国不受欢迎、海峡关闭推高汽油及商品价格，均会在11月美国国会选举前增加美国压力。
伊朗谈判代表顾问马赫迪·穆罕默迪称，伊朗追求的是击败对手而非达成协议；伊朗军方联合司令部把未经许可通航列为“不可逾越的红线”。
7月伊朗对约旦的突袭及6月临时协议破裂，被文中伊朗消息人士视为其施压路径的一部分；该临时协议原本包含美国允许伊朗国际售油和更广泛制裁缓解的承诺。
02/28美以首轮空袭击毙伊朗最高领袖及其他高层后，特朗普曾称战争数周可结束；文章称冲突随后增强了伊朗领导层及其支持者的动员。
伊朗工业基础受美以打击，美国封锁压缩其石油出口，食品通胀达到三位数；12月货币危机引发伊斯兰共和国47年来规模最大的反政府抗议之一。

作者观点与证据

文章以伊朗分析人士、前官员顾问及前外长扎里夫的表述为主，呈现伊朗将海峡控制权用于威慑、谈判和国内合法性的判断。其关于协议条款、收费权及伊朗能否长期承压仍有不确定性，未提供已签署协议或航运恢复的独立证据。

与相关标的的关系

UKOIL（布伦特原油）和USOIL（美国原油）对霍尔木兹海峡通航状态高度敏感。文章提供的是地缘政治与供给通道背景，未给出两项标的的即时价格、库存或具体航运量数据。

时效性与限制（仅在有新增信息时）

文章发表于08/08（未给出具体时刻）。文中关于伊朗与阿曼接近达成安排属于伊朗方面说法，协议文本、美国是否同意及通行规则均未获独立确认。

后续跟踪

伊朗与阿曼管理安排是否公布条款、执行主体和通航规则。
美国是否解除封锁，或对海峡及伊朗民用基础设施采取新的行动。
实际船舶通行、保险与油气出口恢复情况。
伊朗食品通胀、货币压力及国内抗议是否再度扩大。

原文

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World News

Iran’s leaders think they have Trump cornered, but their strategy carries great risks

1 of 5 |

A woman waves an Iranian flag next to a billboard showing a graphic of a man wearing a shirt showing the face of late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed during a joint U.S. and Israeli strike on Feb. 28, with words calling upon the avengers of Imam Hussein, one of Shiite Islam’s most beloved historical saints, in a square in downtown Tehran, Iran, Saturday, Aug. 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi) CORRECTS: Amends wording for clarity.

2 of 5 |

People spend time at a beach as commercial vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)

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Women walk past a banner showing portraits of the late Iranian revolutionary founder Ayatollah Khomeini, left, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, center, and the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the U.S. and Israel strike on Feb. 28, under a bridge in northern Tehran, Iran, Sunday, Aug. 2, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

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Vehicles drive past a billboard showing a photo of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, right, greeting the late Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, and Iranian and Palestinian flags, at an intersection in downtown Tehran, Iran, Saturday, Aug. 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

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President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office of the White House, Thursday, Aug. 6, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Iran’s leaders think they have Trump cornered, but their strategy carries great risks

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People spend time at a beach as commercial vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)

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People spend time at a beach as commercial vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)

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JOSEPH KRAUSS and AMIR-HUSSEIN RADJY

Updated [hour]:[minute] [AMPM] [timezone], [monthFull] [day], [year]

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The Strait of Hormuz is, by some accounts, named for a Zoroastrian deity destined to emerge victorious after a 9,000-year standoff with an adversary.

Iran’s leaders feel their own victory is at hand and won’t require the same epic patience.

They are betting that military pressure will ultimately force the United States to accept their control over the crucial waterway for global energy — and that time is on their side.

They know about the diminishing stockpiles of key U.S. weapons such as advanced missile interceptors. They know the war is deeply unpopular with Americans. They know that as long as the strait is largely closed, the price of gas and other goods will stay high ahead of U.S. congressional elections in November. They know that trying to open it by force would be costly and may require American ground troops . They know their Houthi allies in Yemen could widen the war and disrupt another major trade route.

By that logic, U.S. President Donald Trump has no choice but to capitulate .

But Iran’s strategy carries risks.

Trump points to strikes that have decimated Iran’s top leadership, navy and air force. He alternates between threatening escalation and saying talks are going well. Iran’s own economy has been battered , in part because of a U.S. blockade. Iranians rose up in mass protests just months ago and could do so again.

And Iran’s leaders need only look to how Trump’s “short-term excursion” to the Middle East has bogged down to be reminded that wars rarely turn out as expected.

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An evolving deal could give Iran a major win

Iran says it is close to reaching a deal with Oman to manage the strait, which runs between the two countries. But it would be conditioned on the U.S. lifting its blockade, so even if there are no direct negotiations — as Iran says — Trump would have to approve.

It’s unclear whether the deal would allow Iran to charge fees. But it would formalize its control over what had been an open international waterway before the war, one that carried a fifth of the world’s traded oil and gas.

Abdolreza Davari, an analyst who once advised former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad , said Iran’s effective control of the strait has given it leverage with the U.S. and regional countries that can help guarantee its security.

“More than revenue from the strait, Iran wants to confirm its management and sovereignty over the strait,” he said by phone from Tehran.

Formal control over even part of the strait would be a clear win for Iran and a loss for the U.S., which has yet to accomplish some of its various and shifting goals in the war.

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It would also deal a blow to global norms on freedom of navigation and set a precedent that much of the world would find disturbing — that nations can shut down trade choke points at will.

China, which buys oil from Iran and has influence over it, said as recently as May that “normal and safe passage” through the strait should be restored.

Iran feels time is on its side

To borrow a phrase from Trump’s own theory of geopolitics , Iran believes it holds the cards.

“They started the war, but its end was never with them. We always decide for ourselves when it ends,” Mahdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Iran’s chief negotiator, posted on social media. “Iran is going after the enemy’s defeat — not an agreement.”

He said a surprise Iranian attack on Jordan in July “compensated” for a drop in oil prices. That contributed to the collapse of an interim agreement reached in June that had offered significant concessions to Iran , including a U.S. waiver to sell oil internationally and the promise of broader sanctions relief.

Iran has repeatedly said the Strait of Hormuz will not go back to being an open waterway, and that it will keep attacking ships trying to transit without its permission. Iran’s joint military command has called it an “unbreakable red line.”

“For Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has become a strategic lever for deterrence, maintaining the regional balance of power, and reshaping the security rules in the Persian Gulf,” said Mostafa Najafi, a Tehran-based security analyst.

That poses a major obstacle to ending the war, much less resolving the even more complex, long-standing dispute over Iran’s nuclear program .

“The atomic issue, because of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, has been pushed to the side, and in reality, that is in Iran’s interests,” said Rahman Ghahremanpour, an Iran-based analyst. Control of the strait would give Iran leverage if the nuclear talks resume, he added.

It’s still a risky gamble

The economic fallout from the war has spread worldwide but is particularly acute in Iran.

U.S. and Israeli strikes have pummeled its industrial base . The U.S. blockade has choked off much of its oil exports. Iranians are grappling with triple-digit food inflation . Trump has repeatedly threatened major strikes on civilian infrastructure like water and electricity.

In December, a currency crisis sparked some of the biggest anti-government protests in the 47-year history of the Islamic Republic. Authorities responded with a bloody crackdown in which thousands were killed and tens of thousands detained.

Many in Iran, including those close to its moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian, fear it may go too far.

Mohammad Javad Zarif, who as foreign minister helped negotiate the 2015 nuclear deal, wrote in a recent essay that Iran’s achievements in the war had opened “an exceptional window for diplomacy.” But he warned that if it doesn’t strike a deal soon, then “economic recovery will be difficult, and the possibility of internal unrest or renewed aggression, especially after the U.S. elections, cannot be ruled out.”

The war has already been marked by surprises.

After the first wave of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Feb. 28 killed Iran’s supreme leader and other top officials, Trump suggested it would be over in a matter of weeks .

Instead, the conflict has emboldened Iran’s leaders and mobilized their supporters. Tehran is using the strait “to show that it has not been defeated,” Ghahremanpour said. “It can increase its legitimacy at home.”

But the strategy could also backfire. Iran’s resilience has limits and there are concerns that an economic crash could trigger unrest. “Iran cannot continue with this strategy forever, and at a certain point, in reality, it has to reach a deal with America,” he said.

But Davari said that for now, Iran can withstand the pressure. “It’s unlikely, despite the difficulties of the economic situation, that Iran will retreat from its positions,” he said.

___

Associated Press reporter Hend Kortam in Cairo contributed.

___

Krauss has reported from across the Middle East for more than 20 years, including postings in Cairo, Baghdad and Jerusalem. Radjy is a Cairo-based journalist who has reported on Iran for over a decade.

打开原文

就业转弱推升降息预期

重要性5/5 高

就业、国债收益率、股指、通胀预期和油价数据集中，且与SPX和XAUUSD的当日宏观环境直接相关。

来源信息

来源：Associated Press发布日期：2026-08-07归档状态：ready重要性：5/5 高评级理由：就业、国债收益率、股指、通胀预期和油价数据集中，且与SPX和XAUUSD的当日宏观环境直接相关。

中文摘要

核心结论

美国7月就业人数意外减少2.3万，推动股市上行、国债收益率下行；市场把就业放缓解读为美联储加息压力减轻，但油价带来的通胀和下周消费者价格指数仍将主导政策预期。

重要性评级

评级：5/5（高）

文章发表于08/07（未给出具体时刻），提供当日股债联动、利率预期、油价和企业盈利的关键数字，直接服务SPX（标普500指数）与XAUUSD（现货黄金兑美元）的宏观阅读。

关键事实

美国雇主7月意外减少2.3万个岗位；6月和5月就业数据合计下修10.3万个岗位。
标普500指数上涨47.68点、涨幅0.6%，收于7757.64点并超过其周二创下的历史高位；道琼斯工业平均指数上涨0.3%至54036.93点，纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.3%至26690.62点。
英伟达上涨2.3%，博通上涨1.7%，大型科技股是当日大盘上涨的主要推动力量。
10年期美国国债收益率在就业数据公布后由4.67%降至4.64%，盘中最低4.60%；2年期收益率由4.22%降至4.20%，盘中最低4.15%。
根据芝商所利率观察工具，市场对9月降息的预期由前一日55%和一周前67%降至42%；文章称市场仍预计年底前至少加息一次。
市场预计7月消费者价格指数同比上涨3.4%，低于6月的3.5%，但全年大部分时间通胀仍高于3%。
标普500指数中近90%的公司已披露第二季度业绩，分析师预计整体利润增长50%，为2021年以来最强增速；爱彼迎业绩超预期后上涨17.4%。
布伦特原油上涨1.3%至每桶83.55美元；文中称美伊战争期间油价一度升至113美元，推高汽油、运输及通胀压力。

作者观点与证据

报道将就业走弱与收益率下行、股市上涨并列，说明市场倾向将其解读为货币政策压力缓和。安姆瓦资产管理美洲首席投资官彼得·格拉夫提醒，较少就业人口也会削弱未来增长；摩根士丹利财富管理首席经济学家艾伦·曾特纳认为，下周通胀数据仍是9月政策判断的决定性输入。这些属于机构观点，非美联储正式指引。

与相关标的的关系

SPX受科技股、盈利预期和政策利率预期共同影响；就业走弱对估值的支持与增长放缓风险同时存在。XAUUSD通常对美国收益率和政策预期敏感，但文章未报告黄金现货价格、资金流或持仓数据，相关性仅限宏观传导。

时效性与限制（仅在有新增信息时）

文章发表于08/07（未给出具体时刻），正文更新时间字段缺失。利率概率来自市场定价工具，会随消费者价格指数、油价和美联储沟通快速变化；就业数据也已包含此前月份修订。

后续跟踪

7月消费者价格指数实际读数及核心分项。
美联储对就业下修、油价和通胀的最新表述。
2年期与10年期美国国债收益率是否延续下行。
霍尔木兹通航进展及布伦特原油对通胀预期的影响。

原文

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Business

US stocks jump as employers unexpectedly cut 23,000 jobs, raising hopes that rate hikes can wait

Specialist Michael Pistillo works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Wednesday, Aug.. 5, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)

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NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks rose on Wall Street Friday and Treasury yields fell after the government reported that employers unexpectedly cut 23,000 jobs last month.

Every major index notched a second straight week of gains, which included several fresh records. It marks a strong start to August following several weak months.

The S&P 500 rose 47.68 points, or 0.6%, to 7,757.64. That topped the all-time high it set on Tuesday. The benchmark index has been on a record run throughout the year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 151.83 points, or 0.3%, to 54,036.93. That put it just short of the record it set on Wednesday. The Nasdaq composite rose 342.26 points, or 1.3%, to 26,690.62.

Technology stocks, with their big market values, did much of the heavy lifting for the broader market. They are often the heaviest weights determining the market’s direction. Nvidia jumped 2.3% and Broadcom rose 1.7%.

The bond market reacted more strongly to the weaker signal on the jobs market, which can be seen as allowing the Federal Reserve more time before raising interest rates to fight inflation.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.64% from 4.67% just prior to the jobs update. It was as low as 4.60% before recovering a bit.

AP AUDIO: US stocks jump as employers unexpectedly cut 23,000 jobs, raising hopes that rate hikes can wait

Stocks rise over interest rate possibilities.

The yield on the two-year Treasury, which more closely tracks expectations for Fed action on interest rates, fell to 4.20% from 4.22% prior to the report’s release. It was as low as 4.15% before edging back up.

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“Although the stock market is likely to welcome the dovish implications of the report, investors should be wary of the future growth potential of an economy where fewer people are working,” said Peter Graf, chief investment officer at Amova Asset Management Americas, in a research note.

Overall, the report paints a dimmer picture of the jobs market, which has been one of the brighter areas of the economy amid rising inflation and worries about household spending. It included a revision to the figures for June and May that involved slashing a combined 103,000 jobs from payrolls for those months.

Eyes on the Fed’s next move

The Fed has been holding interest rates steady amid worries about hotter inflation, fueled by a rise in oil prices because of the U.S. war with Iran . Wall Street expects at least one rate increase by the end of the year, with forecasts shifting for the next meeting. Expectations for a rate cut in September are down to 42%, from 55% on Thursday and from 67% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch.

A weakening jobs market could make matters more complicated for the Fed, which has to balance supporting job growth with fighting inflation. Raising interest rates can help tame inflation by slowing economic growth. A weaker jobs market, though, could become even shakier under higher interest rates as businesses find it more difficult to expand under increased borrowing rates.

Businesses, and Wall Street, prefer lower interest rates because it can help boost investments. That might bolster a weakened jobs market, but it could worsen already stubborn inflation.

Our flagship newsletter breaks down the biggest headlines of the day.

Wall Street will get several important inflation updates next week. The most closely watched will be the consumer price index, or CPI, which measures costs for consumers. Wall Street expects it to show that inflation in July rose at a 3.4% rate, which would be a slight easing from the 3.5% rise in June. Inflation has held stubbornly above 3% for most of the year.

“Today’s weak payrolls print may ease the pressure on the Fed to raise rates at its September meeting, but next week’s inflation data will still likely be the deciding factor,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a research note.

The earnings picture

The jobs report caps a week dominated mostly by corporate earnings and concerns about the ongoing U.S. war with Iran.

Corporate earnings for the second quarter are on track for the strongest growth since 2021. Nearly 90% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported their results and analysts expect profit growth of 50% overall. That has helped allay some concerns on Wall Street about whether big gains for stocks in 2026 are justified. Strong profits help support those gains in stock values.

It was a light day for earnings as companies near the close of the latest round of reports.

Airbnb jumped 17.4% following the vacation-rental company’s report late Thursday that showed stronger profit and revenue for its most recent quarter than analysts expected.

Oil prices gained ground. The price of Brent crude, the international standard, rose 1.3% to $83.55 a barrel.

Rising oil prices have been behind hotter inflation. Prices were as high as $113 per barrel at one point during the now five-month U.S. war with Iran. That raised prices for gasoline and shipping for a wide range of products. The U.S. and Iran have both said they are working on deals that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas once passed through.

___

Associated Press Business Writer Elaine Kurtenbach contributed to this report.

打开原文

中国开源模型进入美国市场

重要性3/5 中

人工智能竞争、开源路线和模型定价具有行业参考价值，事实密度较高；文章发布时间较早且无直接相关标的。

来源信息

来源：Associated Press发布日期：2026-07-26归档状态：ready重要性：3/5 中评级理由：人工智能竞争、开源路线和模型定价具有行业参考价值，事实密度较高；文章发布时间较早且无直接相关标的。

中文摘要

核心结论

美联社认为，中国人工智能模型以更低价格、开源生态和接近前沿模型的能力，正扩大在美国开发者和企业中的使用；成本敏感的多步骤智能体应用放大了这一竞争。

重要性评级

评级：3/5（中）

文章发表于07/26（未给出具体时刻），距08/08日报已有近两周，且未列直接相关标的；但其包含模型采用、下载、定价和监管摩擦等可核对事实，对人工智能产业竞争格局有背景价值。

关键事实

Mozilla（火狐浏览器运营方）首席技术官拉菲·克里科里安称，月之暗面推出Kimi K3后不久，已将其用于部分日常工作；此前也使用智谱的GLM-5.2处理日历、文档和邮件。
Coinbase（加密货币交易所）表示，为压降成本而转用中国人工智能模型，反映采用场景已从个人开发者延伸至美国企业。
报道称，智谱6月发布GLM-5.2，月之暗面7月发布Kimi K3；阿里巴巴7月预览Qwen3.8 Max，DeepSeek 4月预览V4。
OpenRouter（模型使用数据追踪平台）过去一个月最受欢迎的前五个模型均来自中国；Sensor Tower（市场情报机构）估计，Kimi K3发布后首周下载量超过93万次，环比增200%，美国下载约8.6万次，增387%。
Kimi K3需求过载后曾暂停新增订阅，显示其服务容量面临压力。
高盛7月研究认为，全球智能体使用增加正推动对低成本模型的需求；文章援引分析称，按百万输入和输出词元计费时，智能体的多步骤调用会显著拉大成本差距。
报道援引Arena（人工智能系统评测平台）负责人称，中国模型在全面能力上仍落后美国领先者；智谱2025年营收增132%至7.24亿元人民币，但净亏损增60%至47亿元人民币。
美国政府指称月之暗面以隐蔽方式借鉴Anthropic模型技术；中国方面否认“蒸馏”指控。美国对部分美国模型的出口管制曾使其离线逾两周，文章引述专家称这会为中国竞争者创造市场空档。

作者观点与证据

文章的倾向是，中国模型已凭价格、开源和迭代速度成为美国闭源模型的实质竞争者。支撑材料包括用户与企业案例、OpenRouter排名、Sensor Tower下载估计及高盛研究；模型能力比较、知识产权争议和政策后果主要来自专家、企业与政府表述，未提供统一基准测试或独立审计结论。

与相关标的的关系

输入未列股票代码或直接相关持仓。报道涉及OpenAI、Anthropic、微软、Meta、英伟达、阿里巴巴、腾讯、华为、DeepSeek、智谱及月之暗面，可作为人工智能模型价格、开源路线、算力需求与监管风险的行业背景，不能据此推导单一公司的业绩影响。

时效性与限制

发布于07/26（未给出具体时刻），检索时间为美东时间 08/08 04:30（UTC+8 08/08 16:30）。下载量为Sensor Tower估计，采用案例数量有限；原文提及的监管指控尚无文中独立裁决。

后续跟踪

Kimi K3暂停新增订阅后，容量恢复与留存数据。
中国模型在独立代码、推理与智能体基准中的表现变化。
美国对中国模型、芯片和美国模型出口的政策调整。
智谱等模型公司的融资、营收与亏损改善情况。

原文

Cheaper, open and intelligent: Chinese AI models gain ground, as they make inroads in the US

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Cheaper, open and intelligent: Chinese AI models gain ground, as they make inroads in the US

1 of 5 |

Visitors at the booth for Chinese AI Startup Moonshot’s Kimi K3 during the World AI Conference in Shanghai, China on July 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

2 of 5 |

A worker stands at the booth for Chinese AI Startup Moonshot’s Kimi K3 during the World AI Conference in Shanghai, China on July 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

3 of 5 |

Chiense President Xi Jinping speaks during a meeting on global AI governance held on the sidelines of the World AI Conference in Shanghai, China on July 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

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A visitor stands near a poster for the World AI Conference in Shanghai, China on July 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

5 of 5 |

Visitors at the booth for Baidu’s AI Agent Dumate during the World AI Conference in Shanghai, China on July 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

Cheaper, open and intelligent: Chinese AI models gain ground, as they make inroads in the US

1 of 5 |

Visitors at the booth for Chinese AI Startup Moonshot’s Kimi K3 during the World AI Conference in Shanghai, China on July 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

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Visitors at the booth for Chinese AI Startup Moonshot’s Kimi K3 during the World AI Conference in Shanghai, China on July 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

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A worker stands at the booth for Chinese AI Startup Moonshot’s Kimi K3 during the World AI Conference in Shanghai, China on July 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

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A worker stands at the booth for Chinese AI Startup Moonshot’s Kimi K3 during the World AI Conference in Shanghai, China on July 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

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Chiense President Xi Jinping speaks during a meeting on global AI governance held on the sidelines of the World AI Conference in Shanghai, China on July 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

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Chiense President Xi Jinping speaks during a meeting on global AI governance held on the sidelines of the World AI Conference in Shanghai, China on July 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

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A visitor stands near a poster for the World AI Conference in Shanghai, China on July 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

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A visitor stands near a poster for the World AI Conference in Shanghai, China on July 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

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Visitors at the booth for Baidu’s AI Agent Dumate during the World AI Conference in Shanghai, China on July 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

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Visitors at the booth for Baidu’s AI Agent Dumate during the World AI Conference in Shanghai, China on July 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

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CHAN HO-HIM and MATT O’BRIEN

Updated [hour]:[minute] [AMPM] [timezone], [monthFull] [day], [year]

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HONG KONG (AP) — China has a hot new product in the United States: artificial intelligence .

San Francisco-based Raffi Krikorian, the chief technology officer at Mozilla, which runs the Firefox browser, switched to Chinese AI startup Moonshot’s Kimi K3 for many of his day-to-day activities within days of the new, powerful model’s launch more than a week ago.

“It just seems snappier,” he said of K3, comparing it to the acclaimed and more expensive Claude Fable chatbot from San Francisco company Anthropic. Earlier, he had been using another high-performing Chinese model, Z.ai’s GLM-5.2, for routine tasks such as managing his calendar, documents and email.

Krikorian is one of a growing number of Americans adopting Chinese AI systems, which are gaining ground around the world because they are more affordable and increasingly efficient. U.S. companies like cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase said they’re switching to Chinese AI models to help trim costs.

Their popularity has frustrated some U.S. tech giants, but short of an outright ban, they’re likely to continue to appeal to independent software developers in the U.S. and elsewhere.

American-led restrictions block China from accessing some of the world’s most advanced technologies including cutting-edge AI chips and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned more sanctions could be coming to protect American intellectual property.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration on Wednesday accused Moonshot of using “covert” but not necessarily illegal methods to build K3 off the back of Anthropic’s Fable. Some U.S. politicians and AI companies including Anthropic have accused Chinese startups of illicit “distillation” of their models to extract their technologies, a claim that Beijing rejects as “groundless.”

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China’s AI models are cheaper and ‘good enough’

The rapid rise of cutting-edge Chinese AI models this year shows the China-U.S. race in AI has moved on from early last year, when Chinese startup DeepSeek shook up the U.S. technology industry and put China on the map with an AI model that performed on par with those in the U.S. but much more cheaply.

The latest AI models launched by startups Z.ai, or Zhipu, in June, and Moonshot in July are nearly as intelligent as the frontier models from OpenAI and Anthropic, experts say. Also in July, China’s Alibaba previewed its Qwen3.8 Max AI model. In April, DeepSeek rolled out previews of its latest V4 model, challenging OpenAI’s GPT and Google’s Gemini.

Those constant advances are bearing fruit. Curt Meinhold, a Greensboro, North Carolina-based technology executive, said he increasingly prefers to use DeepSeek for tasks such as finding business leads or ways to generate sales.

“At the end of the day, most of us, the vast majority of us, 90 plus percent, don’t need (Anthropic’s) Mythos or Fable,” said Meinhold, who founded digital legacy platform LilyList. “Like, we just don’t need it, we need something good enough.”

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Chinese AI models are reaching a “critical stage” for wide adoption, U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs wrote in a July research report, especially when a surge of global “agentic” AI usage , which requires the AI models to autonomously conduct multistep, complex tasks, is driving higher demand for cost effective AI models.

AI prices are calculated per million tokens for both input and output, so the use of AI “agents” is dramatically compounding cost differences, according to analysts including Alex Colville of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

“The Chinese models, you know, I find them to be pretty close on code and research,” said Meinhold. “If I can pay a handful of cents per million output tokens versus 30 bucks or 40 bucks or 50 bucks, then it’s good enough.”

Moonshot’s Kimi K3 leads, but Chinese AI models have limits

Based on data over the past month, the top five most popular models on OpenRouter, a platform that tracks data across AI models, were Chinese.

Estimates from Sensor Tower, a market intelligence firm, showed Kimi had more than 930,000 downloads during the week after K3’s July release, an increase of 200% from the week before. In the U.S. it was downloaded around 86,000 times, a 387% jump.

K3 proved so popular that Moonshot had to temporarily suspend new subscriptions after overwhelming demand pushed its capacity close to its limits.

Still, while Chinese models are becoming serious competitors to the U.S., they lag American AI leaders across their overall, full-range capabilities, said Anastasios Angelopoulos, co-founder and CEO of Arena, a platform for evaluating AI systems.

And U.S. AI firms are also looking for more options to reduce pricing, such as with cheaper alternatives of competitive models, added Yasir Atalan, with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

US policy could boost Chinese AI models

Most Chinese AI models are open-source — meaning anyone can examine and build on them — at a time when frontier models from U.S. companies like Anthropic and OpenAI are closed-source.

Chinese model vendors are expected to leverage open-source software to promote their global usage and adoption, said Lian Jye Su, of the technology research and advisory group Omdia.

As Chinese open-source models are increasingly almost as good as closed systems made by leading U.S. companies, said Mozilla’s Krikorian, “the open frontier is becoming increasingly Chinese-built.” While the U.S. weighs restricting Chinese AI models, a group of American tech firms including Microsoft, Meta and Nvidia signed an open letter published Friday backing “open” AI models.

Other U.S. tech policies also at times give China an upper hand, some experts say. China’s Z.ai released its GLM-5.2 model in mid-June, not long after the Trump administration put export controls on Anthropic’s Fable and Mythos models, keeping them offline for more than two weeks.

“Restricting an American model can immediately create an opening for a Chinese competitor,” said Arena’s Angelopoulos.

Chinese AI models look to expand globally

In China, people and businesses have rapidly embraced AI technologies that have prospered with state support. Chinese tech companies like Huawei and Tencent are also embedding AI in devices such as smartphones, AI glasses and humanoid robots.

Now China is increasingly looking to dominate AI abroad, too. At a flagship technology summit in Shanghai, Chinese President Xi Jinping championed open-source AI models and the importance of promoting greater global equity, while pledging Chinese involvement in raising AI capabilities especially in developing nations.

As is true for many other industries in China, intense competition at home is driving companies to expand globally. Leading Chinese AI startups are now raising more funding to support that effort, including through public share offerings.

Both China and the U.S. will want to “encourage widespread adoption of their AI ecosystems, while safeguarding technologies that could materially strengthen strategic rivals,” said Chelsey Tam, with investment research firm Morningstar.

“The competition is no longer simply the United States against China; the Chinese labs are also putting a lot of pressure on one another,” Angelopoulos said.

But as is the case in the U.S., huge investments in AI have also raised concerns over sustainability of these Chinese startups. Z.ai, for example, reported its revenue surged 132% to 724 million yuan ($107 million) last year, but net loss jumped 60% to 4.7 billion yuan ($694 million).

For now, Chinese AI models will likely continue to march ahead including in the U.S. “I would highly recommend anyone doing any serious AI load to at least evaluate it,” said Krikorian.

___

O’Brien reported from Providence, Rhode Island. AP Business Writer Kelvin Chan in Toronto contributed to this report.

CHAN HO-HIM

Chan writes about business and economy in China for The Associated Press, reporting on key sectors of the world’s second-largest economy from trade and technology to autos. He is based in Hong Kong.

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MATT O’BRIEN

O’Brien covers the business of technology and artificial intelligence for The Associated Press.

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金十快讯

金十数据快讯 · 2026-08-08T14:45:35+08:00

美军高层据报评估退出路径与弹药约束

来源信息

来源：金十数据快讯时间：2026-08-08T14:45:35+08:00

快讯正文

媒体援引知情人士称，美军参联会主席Dan Caine正评估退出路径，并认为单靠空中力量难以实现全部目标，武器库存也是约束。

证据限制：匿名消息源；不是白宫、国防部或CENTCOM正式政策声明。

打开原文

伊朗议会人士称伊阿已形成海峡谅解框架

来源信息

来源：金十数据快讯时间：2026-08-08T03:38:54+08:00

来源信息

来源：金十数据快讯时间：2026-07-15T04:42:55+08:00

Warsh表示更高通胀不可接受、美联储不会放弃价格稳定承诺并拥有相应工具；该组表态没有给出下一次会议的具体利率信号。

打开原文

特朗普再次确认反对霍尔木兹通行费

来源信息

来源：金十数据快讯时间：2026-07-15T00:11:24+08:00

伊朗波斯湾航道管理机构称，从谅解备忘录签署到新一轮紧张局势前，已有200艘非伊朗船只以协调方式通过海峡。

证据限制：单方口径，尚无同口径AIS全量复算。

打开原文

美国6月CPI显著低于预期

来源信息

来源：金十数据快讯时间：2026-07-14T20:39:56+08:00

快讯正文

headline CPI环比-0.4%、同比3.5%，core环比0.0%、同比2.6%；数据公布后股指期货上涨、国债收益率下跌。

打开原文

伊朗高级顾问称谅解备忘录已不再存在

来源信息

来源：金十数据快讯时间：2026-07-14T20:00:39+08:00

快讯正文

Kpler称自7月11日起连续三天没有LNG船通过霍尔木兹海峡；6月有40艘、5月8艘、4月4艘、3月为0。

证据限制：船数不直接等于LNG体积，但足以确认6月复流方向出现逆转。

打开原文

公开船流下降而暗航增加

来源信息

来源：金十数据快讯时间：2026-07-13T13:14:28+08:00

快讯正文

Kpler初步数据称，美伊恢复交战后过去三天关闭AIS暗中通行的船舶多于公开可见通行；阿曼南侧公开航线已停止可见通行。

证据限制：关闭AIS会令公开船位低估物理穿越，船数也不能直接换算为损失桶数。

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伊拉克推进两百万桶级西向输油管道

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