MSFT+14.96%
外观
2026-07-31 全球资产日报
- 数据时间：2026-07-31 20:15:01 Asia/Shanghai
- 报告类型：全球资产日报
展开市场热力、期权压力和 Crypto 盘口
股票与 ETF 板块热力
云计算及平台
GOOG+0.55%
芯片设计与制造
MRVL+18.24%
GFS+10.88%
数据中心及算力基础设施
NBIS+37.63%
APLD+26.74%
光通信及互连
COHR+18.89%
关键矿物
USAR+15.00%
数字资产基础设施
CRCL+2.48%
半导体与存储 ETF
SOXL+36.01%
KMEM+22.68%
DRAM+20.89%
PSI+17.81%
FTXL+13.08%
SOXX+11.78%
期权压力
MSFT0.36
QQQ0.94
NVDA0.53
SPY1.52
SOXL1.44
SPCX0.36
NBIS1.24
SOXX0.64
快照对比基准：2026-07-30。本面板只展示已落盘事实，不生成操作判断。
今日总览
核心判断
| 优先级 | 相对上一期变化 | 判断 | 组合含义 | 触发 / 失效 | 证据 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 股票急弹，组合第一约束转回 Crypto 合约名义量 | BTC、ETH、SOL 24 小时分别约 -1.88%、-2.56%、-1.14%；BTC/ETH 低周期同向偏弱，ETH 名义敞口高于 BTC。已隐藏 | 今天停止增加 BTC/ETH 合约总名义量。若失效位触发，先缩 ETH，再处理 BTC；SOL Earn 保持非杠杆。 | ETH 依次收复 1,883.80、1,906.33 后才解除首层约束；失守 1,874.86、1,845.67 时优先降低。BTC 失守 62,970.87、62,603.36 时同步降级。 | Binance read-only 快照；完成技术线截至 7 月 30，美东盘中 Crypto 日线尚未完成 |
| 2 | AI 链从前一日抛售转为强反弹，经营验证集中在云平台 | 微软 Azure 增长 43%，下一季度固定汇率指引约 45%，单季资本开支预计超过 500 亿美元；亚马逊云增长加快。半导体、光通信和数据中心资产普涨，但多数标的 5 日、20 日趋势仍为负。 | 股票主线维持，不追单日急涨。已隐藏 | 个股只有越过持仓表内低周期压力，并由订单、毛利、交付或现金流确认，才增加风险；重新失守支撑且公司证据恶化时逐只降低。 | 微软 FY26 Q4、微软电话会、Bloomberg，2026-07-31 |
| 3 | 宏观从会前不确定转为增长放缓、内需韧性和同比通胀黏性并存 | 美国二季度 GDP 年化 +1.5%，私人国内最终购买 +3.9%；6 月 PCE 环比 -0.1%、核心 +0.1%，同比仍为 3.7%/3.3%。FOMC 三票主张加息，长端收益率仍高。 | 现金与短债继续承担等待权；成长和 Crypto 的新增风险必须覆盖较高折现率与能源尾部风险。 | 后续就业、ISM、能源价格和长端收益率同步回落可放松约束；通胀、油价和长端利率再上行则继续限制久期资产。 | BEA GDP，2026-07-30、BEA PCE，2026-07-30、FOMC |
| 4 | 霍尔木兹风险由航运扰动延伸到扣船说法、制裁与油价 88 美元 | IMO 累计确认 62 起相关海上事件和 17 人死亡；伊朗方面声称扣留两艘油轮，美国扩大对伊朗航空与革命卫队网络制裁，布伦特盘中重返 88 美元。 | 当前没有直接能源证券；冲击主要通过通胀、长端利率与高 beta 风险偏好传导。能源仅保留 C 级事件研究，不追事件价。 | 通航量、保险费率、库存和 XLE/XOP 多窗口相对强度共同确认后升级；局势降温、油价回落且能源代理持续落后时失效。 | IMO、美国财政部，2026-07-30、金十油价 |
| 5 | 日银维持 1%，日元干预仍是媒体推断与官方窗口错位 | 日银以 8 比 1 维持 1%，一名委员主张升至 1.25%；日本财务省截至 7 月 29 日的统计为零干预，未覆盖 7 月 30 日异动。 | 不根据媒体估算的干预金额调整仓位；只把日元急变视为套利交易去杠杆的跨市场风险。 | 下一期财务省披露确认规模后再升级；若没有官方确认且日元波动收敛，则降为背景变量。 | 日本央行、金十，2026-07-31 |
今日动作
| 标的 / 风险预算 | 当前动作 | 升级条件 | 降级 / 失效条件 |
|---|---|---|---|
BTC / ETH 永续 | 停止增加总名义量；ETH 是首要缩减对象。 | BTC 收复 63,760.81、64,071.66 后再越过 64,516.68；ETH 守住 1,874.86，收复 1,883.80、1,906.33。 | BTC 失守 62,970.87 后看 62,603.36；ETH 失守 1,874.86 后看 1,855.82、1,845.67。任一失效且另一资产仍弱，降低合约 gross。 |
| AI / 半导体股票主线 | 维持总量，不追 7 月 30 日急涨；新增只做已有分区内、经营证据更清楚的条件单。 | 按持仓表逐只收复 4H/日线压力，且 GFS、CRCL、COHR、NBIS 的业绩或 APLD 项目交付没有恶化。 | 跌破逐股失效位且订单、毛利率、融资或现金流同时转弱时降低；单日回撤本身不触发。 |
PSI | 已有仓位持有，不追涨。 | 4H 越过 143.064、144.25，站上 146.0558，1H 再突破 147.525。 | 跌回 140.916 下方降温；完成日线失守 133.834 后重做仓位判断。 |
| T-Bill 梯子 | 1/2/3 月 IBKR Ask YTM 为 3.671%/3.732%/3.761%，期限补偿仍为正。已隐藏 | 2—3 月期 Ask YTM 保持高于 1 月期且报价深度满足计划，再分批完成。 | Ask YTM 缺失或利差消失时暂停；拍卖投资率和 FedInvest 参考收益不替代 IBKR Ask YTM。 |
| 期权对冲 | 暂不实施。直接缩减合约或单名风险优先于缺乏 beta 与可执行成本的代理对冲。 | 补齐组合损失预算、实时 bid/ask、Greeks、历史 IV、beta 和期限后再比较。 | 价格失效位先触发时直接降原始敞口，不等待对冲包。 |
跨资产主线
7 月 31 日的风险偏好由微软、亚马逊云业务和资本开支重新点燃，但反弹仍集中在单日价格层：MRVL、GFS、APLD、COHR、NBIS 与半导体 ETF 的 5 日、20 日结构多数未修复。宏观背景也没有给出全面宽松条件，GDP 放缓与 PCE 环比降温同时伴随内需韧性、同比通胀黏性和联储加息分歧。组合顺序因此保持清晰：先限制 BTC/ETH 合约名义量，再等待股票持仓的经营与技术双确认；现金和短债继续为事件窗口提供选择权。
全市场快讯
| 类别 | 时间 | 事实与关键数字 | 影响资产 | 市场含义与证据边界 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 宏观 | 7 月 30 日 20:30 后 | 美国二季度 GDP 年化 +1.5%，私人国内最终购买 +3.9%；6 月 PCE 环比 -0.1%，核心 +0.1%。 | 美元、美债、美股、Crypto | 总量增长放缓与内需韧性并存；同比 PCE 仍高，不能把一个月环比降温写成通胀问题结束。 | BEA GDP、BEA PCE |
| 央行 | 7 月 31 日 15:46 | 日银维持 1%，8 比 1；一名委员主张升至 1.25%。 | JPY、日股、全球利差交易 | 日元干预金额仍未获覆盖 7 月 30 日的官方统计确认。 | 日本央行、金十 |
| 中国增长 | 7 月 31 日 09:30 | 7 月制造业 PMI 49.2、非制造业 PMI 49.0，均低于 50。 | A/H 股、铜、工业周期、CNH | 单月 PMI 说明当期扩散偏弱，趋势仍需分项和后续高频数据验证。 | 金十，2026-07-31 |
| 全球科技 | 7 月 31 日 15:02 | 微软与亚马逊云增长带动全球科技和半导体反弹；微软 Azure +43%，下一季度固定汇率指引约 +45%。 | MSFT、AMZN、半导体、AI 基础设施 | 云需求获得确认，供应商收入、毛利率和自由现金流仍需逐家公司验证。 | 微软、Reuters |
| 美股常规时段 | 7 月 31 日 04:01 北京时间 | 存储与 AI 链反弹；本组合对应常规收盘 MRVL +12.18%、APLD +20.46%、COHR +12.16%、NBIS +27.13%。 | 半导体、存储、数据中心 | 单日普涨没有扭转多数标的 5/20 日下行，延迟盘外快照另行列在持仓表。 | 金十收盘快讯、IBKR read-only |
| 航运与原油 | 7 月 31 日 17:35—19:45 | 伊朗方面称扣留两艘油轮并要求通行许可；布伦特盘中重返 88 美元。 | 原油、航运、保险、通胀 | 扣船细节为单方口径；油价反应是真实市场事实，航运量和保险费率仍待量化。 | 扣船快讯、油价快讯 |
| 监管 | 7 月 31 日 19:32 | 欧盟新增 AI 透明度要求自 8 月 2 日起执行。 | 大型平台、AI 模型与应用公司 | 合规成本和模型披露要求需要结合具体实施文本，不直接等同收入影响。 | 金十，2026-07-31 |
| Crypto | 20:15 左右 | BTC 63,711、ETH 1,876.63、SOL 73.44；Funding 分别小幅正、负、正。 | BTC、ETH、SOL | 三者同跌且低周期偏弱；Funding 与单次期权到期不能单独确认方向。 | Binance public read-only；Farside BTC、ETH、SOL |
宏观
| 主题 | 最新事实 | 市场影响 | 后续验证 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 美联储 | 9 比 3 维持 3.50%—3.75%，三名委员主张加息 25bp。 | 政策分歧抬高长久期资产的折现率与路径不确定性。 | 就业、核心通胀、能源价格和委员讲话。 | FOMC 声明 |
| 美国增长与通胀 | 二季度 GDP 年化 +1.5%，私人最终购买 +3.9%；6 月 PCE 环比 -0.1%、核心 +0.1%，同比 3.7%/3.3%。 | 增长放缓降低总需求压力，内需和同比通胀仍约束快速宽松。 | 8 月 3 日 ISM 订单、生产与价格分项，以及后续就业数据。 | BEA GDP、BEA PCE |
| 日本央行与日元 | 日银维持 1%，一票支持 1.25%；官方干预统计只覆盖至 7 月 29 日。 | 日元急变可能触发套利仓位去杠杆，但干预金额不能用媒体估算替代。 | 日本财务省下一期干预统计、日银通胀与工资路径。 | 日本央行、金十 |
| 中国 PMI | 7 月制造业 49.2、非制造业 49.0。 | 工业品和全球周期需求预期偏弱，对铜与制造链形成约束。 | PMI 分项、工业利润、信贷和出口数据。 | 金十 |
| 短债收益率 | IBKR Ask YTM：1 月 3.671%、2 月 3.732%、3 月 3.761%；Ask Size 4 万、1.5 万、2 万美元。 | 期限补偿为正，短债继续提供等待收益。 | 实际下单前重新核对 Ask YTM、价格和深度。 | IBKR read-only、TreasuryDirect |
地缘与政策
| 主题 | 最新事实 | 影响链条 | 后续验证 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 霍尔木兹与海上安全 | IMO 累计确认 62 起相关事件、17 人死亡；伊朗方面称扣留两艘油轮。 | 航运安全 → 保险与运输成本 → 原油/LNG → 通胀和长端利率。 | 船舶身份、实际通航量、保险条款和多方官方确认。 | IMO、金十 |
| 对伊制裁 | 美国财政部扩大对马汉航空与革命卫队相关网络的制裁。 | 支付与运输合规 → 航空和物流网络 → 伊朗外部融资与供给风险。 | 被制裁实体交易链、第三方执行与后续执法。 | 美国财政部，2026-07-30 |
| 美国半导体政策 | 美国商务部宣布总额 8.74 亿美元的半导体研发 LOI，其中 GFS 硅光子项目最高 3 亿美元。 | 研发支持 → 客户认证与量产 → 订单和收入；当前仍是 LOI。 | 最终拨款、项目条件、客户认证和公司会计确认。 | Reuters，2026-07-30 |
| AI 透明度 | 欧盟新增透明度要求 8 月 2 日起执行。 | 模型披露与合规流程 → 平台成本和产品节奏。 | 实施细则、执法范围和公司披露。 | 金十，2026-07-31 |
持仓观察
| 分类 | 标的 | 结构 / 强弱 | 最近均线压力 / 支撑 | 支撑 | 压力 / 确认 | 日线九转 | 新闻 / 日历 / 期权 | 判断 / 动作 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 芯片与网络 | MRVL | 下强上弱；完成日线仅高于 MA5/MA120，低于 MA10/20/30/60 | 上方 MA10 191.646；下方 MA5 180.914 | 191.899；191.520；180.914 | 196.544；199.989；209.352 | 低序列第 5 根；7 月 14 日已完成低 9 | 云资本开支验证需求；8 月 7 日 Max Pain 185；P/C 量 0.50、OI 1.28，方向分歧 | 持有，确认前不加。1H 越过 196.544、4H 站稳 199.989 后再评估；失守 191.52—191.90 后降温，日线跌破 180.914/177.95 时重做风险预算。 |
| 晶圆代工 | GFS | 下强上弱；完成日线低于全部均线，1H/4H 正测试压力 | 上方日线 MA5 50.538；无下方均线 | 52.14；51.013；47.37 | 53.182—53.372；54.177 | 低序列第 6 根 | 最高 3 亿美元硅光子 LOI 尚非拨款；8 月 5 日业绩；P/C 量 0.39 | 小仓持有，业绩前不加。站稳 53.182—53.372 后看 54.177；失守 51.013 或业绩未验证订单/毛利时降低。 |
| 数据中心托管 | APLD | 下强上弱；日线站上 MA5/10，仍低于 MA20/30/60/120；低周期拥挤 | 上方 MA20 28.998；下方 MA10 27.504 | 29.48；29.40；27.504 | 30.18—30.222；30.547—30.81 | 高序列第 1 根 | Q4 收入 2.587 亿美元、同比 +407%；净亏损 1.106 亿美元；Max Pain 27.5 | 持有，融资和交付确认前不加。站稳 30.18—30.222 后再看 30.81；失守 29.40/28.998 且项目融资恶化时降低。 |
| 战略资源 | USAR | 下强上弱；完成日线仅高于 MA5 | 上方 MA10 14.85；下方 MA5 14.172 | 15.134；15.12；14.172 | 15.367；15.47；15.762 | 高序列第 1 根 | CEO 更替与 Serra Verde 组合预计 8 月底前完成，仍有交割和融资条件；Max Pain 15.5 | 观察仓持有、不加。站稳 15.367 并越过 15.47 后再评估；失守 14.959/14.172 且交割条件恶化时重做 thesis。 |
| 光通信 | COHR | 下强上弱；完成日线低于全部均线，反弹接近共振压力 | 上方 MA5 253.628；无下方均线 | 264.61；255.262；234.442 | 274.735—275.067；280.985；285 | 低序列第 5 根 | AXT 披露 InP 预付款 2,540 万美元和逾 1 亿美元积压；8 月 12 日业绩 | 持有，事件前不加。站稳 274.735—275.067 后再看 280.985；失守 255.262 且公司毛利/现金流验证转弱时优先降低。 |
| 数字金融与稳定币 | CRCL | 日线尝试修复、低周期回踩；完成日线在 MA5 上、略低于 MA10/20 | 上方 MA10 64.328；下方 MA5 63.59 | 63.003；62.40；61.715 | 63.511；64.064；64.358 | 高序列第 1 根 | 纽约州信托牌照来自聚合源转述；8 月 5 日业绩；P/C 量 1.39、OI 0.94 | 小仓持有，业绩前不加。收复 63.511/64.064 并由日线站稳 64.358 后再评估；失守 62.40/61.715 时转回失效观察。 |
| 云计算及服务 | GOOG | 下强上弱；完成日线仅高于 MA5，低周期反弹接近 342 | 上方 MA10 335.163；下方 MA5 329.54 | 335.447；335.054；329.585 | 341.780—342.045；347.824 | 高序列第 2 根；7 月 28 日完成低 9 | Cloud 增长仍是 AI 需求旁证；430 美元深实值 put 的 bid/ask 为 0、IV 落在源端下限，不能判方向 | 持有。站稳 342.045 且现金转化改善后才增加；失守 335.054—335.447 后降温，日线跌破 329.585 时修复失败。 |
| AI 云基础设施 | NBIS | 下强上弱；完成日线高于 MA5/MA120，低周期 RSI 极高 | 上方 MA10 189.837；下方 MA5 176.398 | 207.05；204.80；183.00 | 208.24；211.51；214.224 | 高序列第 1 根 | 8 月 12 日业绩；8 月 7 日到期深实值 call 早于业绩且报价异常 | 持有，急涨后不加。站稳 208.24、越过 211.51 后再看 214.224；失守 204.80—203.25 取消新增，回到 183 下方明显失效。 |
ETF 持仓与观察
| ETF | 当前 / 盘外 | NAV / 溢折价 | 前十大内部强弱 | 技术结构 / 日线九转 | 集中判断 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PSI | 142.20（延迟盘外）；常规收 134.87，+11.74%；盘外 +5.43%；已隐藏 | 发行方动态 NAV、市价和溢折价未取得；费率 0.56% | 7 月 30 日官方前十大合计 50.82%，10/10 有价格；ICHR +20.43%、UCTT +19.63% 领先 | 反弹压力测试；支撑 140.916/133.834，确认 143.064→146.056→147.525；低序列第 4 根 | 持有、不追涨。与 MRVL、GFS、COHR 形成重复半导体 beta，但股票主线总权重较小；跌破 133.834 后重做判断。 |
SOXX | 519.76（延迟盘外）；常规收 504.53，+8.50%；盘外 +3.02% | 7 月 30 日 NAV 505.06、+8.81%；市价较 NAV 折价约 0.10% | 前十大合计 60.71%；MU +18.36%、LRCX +17.98%，NVDA +2.65% 相对落后 | 反弹压力测试；日线收复 520.963—521.602、4H 越过 533.811 才确认；低序列第 4 根 | 无杠杆行业基准，保留 B 级研究观察；单日反弹未扭转 5/20 日 -8.47%/-15.87%。 |
SOXL | 125.12（延迟盘外）；常规收 114.72，+24.71%；盘外 +9.07% | 7 月 30 日 NAV 114.91、+26.40%；折价约 0.17% | 可报价股票前十大合计 41.73%；现金、货币工具和 swap 未纳入 | 急跌后反弹；129.37、131.248—132.55 为确认区；低序列第 4 根 | 仅作单日 +300% 战术工具；20 日仍 -47.27%，不作为长期 AI 主题替代品。 |
FTXL | 226.24（延迟盘外）；常规收 217.82，+8.87%；盘外 +3.87% | 7 月 30 日 NAV 217.94；折价约 0.06% | 前十大合计 66.91%；MU +18.36% 领先，QCOM -2.62% 拖累 | 反弹压力测试；日线站上 226.529、再越过 230.180/234.972；低序列第 4 根 | 成交量约 30.4 万份，低于 SOXX；不建立与 PSI 重复的新风险。 |
DRAM | 54.22（延迟盘外）；常规收 52.34，+16.70%；盘外 +3.59% | 发行方动态 NAV 与溢折价未取得；费率 0.65% | 合并股票与 total return swap 的前十大敞口 95.92%；SK hynix +29.95%、Samsung +26.81% 领先 | 反弹压力测试；确认 55.123→56.058，日线低序列第 4 根；缺 MA120 | 存储纯度高但口径含 swap；B 级行业观察，先补发行商动态与持续性。 |
KMEM | 17.85（延迟盘外）；常规收 16.90，+16.22%；盘外 +5.62% | 最新为 7 月 29 日 NAV 14.66、市价 14.55、折价 0.76% | 可报价股票仅 2/3，权重合计 27.58%；期权、国债和现金未纳入 | 仅 21 根完成日线；18.12、18.538—18.565 为压力；低序列第 5 根 | 样本、成分和期权覆盖不足，不用单日反弹推导中期反转。 |
Crypto 与组合风险
| 资产 | 20:15 左右价格 / 24h | Funding / ETF flow | 技术结构 | 动作与风险位 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC | 63,711.2 / -1.88% | Funding +0.001635%；BTC 7 月 31 日源表 Total 0.0，但基金单元格全部缺失，不作零流量解释 | 1H/4H/日线同向偏弱，仍在日线 MA60 上；日线低序列第 8 根为盘中暂态 | 不加合约。收复 63,760.81、64,071.66 后看 64,516.68；失守 62,970.87、62,603.36 时降低 gross。 |
ETH | 1,876.63 / -2.56% | Funding -0.003193%；7 月 30 日 ETF +1,280 万美元 | 日线中期改善仍在，低周期回踩；相对 BTC 的 10/20/60 日强弱为正 | 不加合约，优先缩减对象。守住 1,874.86、收复 1,883.80/1,906.33 才修复；失守 1,845.67 时降低。 |
SOL | 73.44 / -1.14% | Funding +0.005393%；7 月 30 日 ETF 0，基金级为明确零 | 日线与低周期偏弱；低 9 尚需 UTC 日线完成确认 | 保留 Earn、不加杠杆。守住 73.4211、收复 73.6729—73.7093 后再看 74.3249；失守 72.4169 降级。 |
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美股机会雷达
板块机会地图
| 分级 | 板块 / 行业 / 主题 | 强度与 Why now | 第一反对理由 | 升级 / 失效条件 | 下一步研究 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B | AI 云需求与资本开支兑现 | MSFT 常规时段 +15.51%，5/20 日 +18.22%/+17.39%；Azure +43%，下一季度指引约 +45%，资本开支预计超过 500 亿美元。 | 强度集中于 MSFT；NVDA、VRT、APLD 的 5/20 日仍弱，云支出传到供应商现金流存在时滞。 | 至少两类供应商确认订单、积压、毛利或自由现金流改善；云厂商下调资本开支或需求不再高于产能时失效。 | 云资本开支经济传导、MSFT 公司事实底表 |
| B | 半导体与存储反弹验证 | SOXX、DRAM、KMEM 单日分别 +8.50%、+16.70%、+16.22%；GFS 获最高 3 亿美元硅光子 LOI。 | 5/20 日趋势仍负，LOI 不是拨款或收入。 | SOXX 日线收复 520.963—521.602、4H 越过 533.811，且公司订单/价格/毛利改善；失守 504.218/498.365 或经营下修时失效。 | 算力、存储、光互连与设备拆分研究 |
| B | 光通信与硅光子 | COHR、MRVL、GFS 常规时段分别 +12.16%、+12.18%、+5.99%；AXT 披露 InP 预付款和积压，GFS/COHR 业绩日已确认。 | 上游订单、同业收入和政策 LOI 不能替代三家公司自身利润与现金流。 | GFS 8 月 5 日、COHR 8 月 12 日验证订单和毛利；订单或毛利下修、LOI 未转最终授予时失效。 | GFS 与 COHR 财报预览 |
| C | 软件相对强度 | 技术横截面提示软件持续性较完整，MSFT 经营与价格强势。 | 缺 IGV 精确窗口与多家公司经营扩散，单股不足以代表行业广度。 | 至少两家公司确认席位、续费、定价或利润率改善；软件代理持续性消失时失效。 | 软件扩散观察、MSFT 公司研究 |
| C | 能源与霍尔木兹风险 | IMO 事件累计增加，油价在 88 美元附近；事件路径明确。 | XLE/XOP 的 1/5/20/60 日相对强度与成交窗口缺失，扣船细节有单方口径。 | 官方航运与库存量化扰动，XLE/XOP 多窗口相对强度恢复；通行恢复且能源持续落后时失效。 | 能源与航运经济影响研究 |
未持仓标的下钻
| 分级 | 标的 | 对应主题 | 经营暴露 | 第一反对理由 | 升级 / 失效条件 | 下一步研究 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B | MSFT | AI 云需求与资本开支兑现 | FY26 Q4 收入 900 亿美元，Microsoft Cloud 593 亿美元、+27%，Azure +43%，Copilot 付费席位逾 3,000 万。 | 单日 +15.51% 后预期抬升；业绩含 32 亿美元 Anthropic 投资收益，缺估值、共识和定位。 | 下一次披露兑现约 45% Azure 指引并维持现金转化；Azure 低于指引或资本开支上升、现金转化恶化时失效。 | 公司事实底表与下次财报预览 |
组合暴露叠加
| 主题 | 当前暴露 | 组合含义 |
|---|---|---|
| AI 云需求与资本开支兑现 | 已隐藏 | 已有高相关主题簇，研究升级不自动增加仓位。 |
| 半导体与存储反弹验证 | 已隐藏 | 通过 ETF 与单股重复承担 beta，新增前先比较经营纯度与工具路径。 |
| 光通信与硅光子 | 已隐藏 | 等待公司业绩把行业旁证转成自身兑现。 |
| 软件相对强度 | 已隐藏 | 没有经验证的直接软件行业工具暴露，保留未持有研究方向。 |
| 能源与霍尔木兹风险 | 已隐藏 | 当前只有通胀、利率和风险偏好传导，没有直接能源证券。 |
重要日历
| 日期 / 时间 | 确认状态 | 标的 / 类别 | 事件 | 需要验证 | 预先动作 / 失效条件 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 月 2 日 | reported | 欧盟 AI 监管 | 新增透明度要求开始执行 | 实施文本、适用范围、公司合规披露 | 不用监管标题直接推导收入影响；出现正式公司指引后再纳入估值 | 金十 |
| 8 月 3 日 22:00 北京时间 | confirmed | 美国宏观 | 7 月 ISM 制造业 | 新订单、生产、就业与价格分项 | 数据前不扩大久期与周期风险；价格分项回落且订单改善才支持放松 | ISM 日程 |
| 8 月 4 日美股收盘后 | confirmed | SPCX | 二季度财务与运营结果 | 收入、发射节奏、资本开支与现金流；特斯拉中国资产传闻无正式文件 | 维持 Reject，不依据被否认传闻建仓；正式结果提供经营证据后重新分级 | 公司 IR |
| 8 月 5 日 20:00 北京时间 | confirmed | CRCL | 二季度业绩 | USDC 流通量、储备收入、利率敏感性与牌照进展 | 业绩前不加；收复 64.358 且经营验证后再评估，失守 61.715 降级 | Circle |
| 8 月 5 日 20:30 北京时间 | confirmed | GFS | 二季度业绩 | 订单、毛利、硅光子项目与 LOI 进展 | 业绩前不加；站稳 53.182—53.372 且经营确认后升级，失守 51.013 降级 | 公司公告 |
| 8 月，日期待定 | TBA | PSI | 季度指数再平衡与重构 | 精确生效日、成分和权重变化 | 不抢跑未披露日期；发行商正式文件出现后再评估结构变化 | Invesco |
| 8 月 12 日 20:00 北京时间 | confirmed | NBIS | 二季度业绩、开盘前发布 | AI 云收入、资本开支、融资与现金流 | 急涨后不加；业绩验证并站稳 211.51 后才增加，回到 183 下方失效 | Nebius |
| 8 月 13 日 04:30 北京时间 | confirmed | COHR | 第四季度及全年业绩电话会 | 收入、InP/光通信订单、毛利与现金流 | 事件前不加；站稳 275.067 且业绩确认后升级，失守 255.262 降级 | Coherent |
ETF 前十大持仓单日涨跌
权重来自发行商持仓文件；涨跌为报告日及以前最近两个完整交易日收盘对比。成分只用于 ETF 结构观察，不计作直接持仓。
PSI · 2026-07-30 · 涨跌覆盖 10/10
- 发行商：Invesco
- 持仓口径：发行商官方股票持仓
- 来源：发行商持仓文件
| 排名 | 成分 | 权重 | 持仓日期 | 价格日期 | 收盘 | 单日涨跌 | 价格来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AMAT Applied Materials Inc | 6.63% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 501.77 | +14.97% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 2 | MU Micron Technology Inc | 5.86% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 874.66 | +18.36% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 3 | AMD Advanced Micro Devices Inc | 5.79% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 485.39 | +13.00% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 4 | LRCX Lam Research Corp | 5.54% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 297.72 | +17.98% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 5 | NVDA NVIDIA Corp | 5.45% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 195.04 | +2.65% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 6 | KLAC KLA Corp | 5.39% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 180.33 | +5.96% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 7 | ADI Analog Devices Inc | 5.24% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 366.67 | +3.76% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 8 | INTC Intel Corp | 4.43% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 91.13 | +11.30% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 9 | ICHR Ichor Holdings Ltd | 3.38% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 74.97 | +20.43% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 10 | UCTT Ultra Clean Holdings Inc | 3.12% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 83.23 | +19.63% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
- 无额外口径限制。
SOXX · 2026-07-30 · 涨跌覆盖 10/10
- 发行商：iShares / BlackRock
- 持仓口径：发行商官方股票持仓
- 来源：发行商持仓文件
| 排名 | 成分 | 权重 | 持仓日期 | 价格日期 | 收盘 | 单日涨跌 | 价格来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC | 8.57% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 485.39 | +13.00% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 2 | NVDA NVIDIA CORP | 8.42% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 195.04 | +2.65% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 3 | MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC | 8.21% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 874.66 | +18.36% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 4 | AVGO BROADCOM INC | 7.91% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 387.84 | +4.73% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 5 | INTC INTEL CORPORATION | 5.24% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 91.13 | +11.30% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 6 | AMAT APPLIED MATERIAL INC | 5.08% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 501.77 | +14.97% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 7 | TSM TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING | 4.57% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 403.31 | +7.64% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 8 | KLAC KLA CORP | 4.28% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 180.33 | +5.96% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 9 | LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORP | 4.27% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 297.72 | +17.98% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 10 | TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENT INC | 4.16% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 278.76 | +2.75% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
- 无额外口径限制。
SOXL · 2026-07-31 · 涨跌覆盖 10/10
- 发行商：Direxion
- 持仓口径：发行商官方可报价股票主线位
- 来源：发行商持仓文件
| 排名 | 成分 | 权重 | 持仓日期 | 价格日期 | 收盘 | 单日涨跌 | 价格来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES | 5.89% | 2026-07-31 | 2026-07-30 | 485.39 | +13.00% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 2 | NVDA NVIDIA CORP | 5.79% | 2026-07-31 | 2026-07-30 | 195.04 | +2.65% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 3 | MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC | 5.65% | 2026-07-31 | 2026-07-30 | 874.66 | +18.36% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 4 | AVGO BROADCOM INC | 5.44% | 2026-07-31 | 2026-07-30 | 387.84 | +4.73% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 5 | INTC INTEL CORP | 3.60% | 2026-07-31 | 2026-07-30 | 91.13 | +11.30% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 6 | AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC | 3.49% | 2026-07-31 | 2026-07-30 | 501.77 | +14.97% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 7 | TSM TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR-SP ADR | 3.14% | 2026-07-31 | 2026-07-30 | 403.31 | +7.64% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 8 | KLAC KLA CORP | 2.94% | 2026-07-31 | 2026-07-30 | 180.33 | +5.96% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 9 | LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORP | 2.93% | 2026-07-31 | 2026-07-30 | 297.72 | +17.98% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 10 | TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC | 2.86% | 2026-07-31 | 2026-07-30 | 278.76 | +2.75% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
- SOXL 的现金、货币市场工具和指数 swap 未纳入可报价成分表；表内权重不是基金完整经济敞口。
FTXL · 2026-07-30 · 涨跌覆盖 10/10
- 发行商：First Trust
- 持仓口径：发行商官方股票持仓
- 来源：发行商持仓文件
| 排名 | 成分 | 权重 | 持仓日期 | 价格日期 | 收盘 | 单日涨跌 | 价格来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MU Micron Technology, Inc. | 12.03% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 874.66 | +18.36% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 2 | INTC Intel Corporation | 11.33% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 91.13 | +11.30% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 3 | AVGO Broadcom Inc. | 6.88% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 387.84 | +4.73% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 4 | AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | 6.87% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 485.39 | +13.00% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 5 | MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. | 6.36% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 183.30 | +12.18% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 6 | NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | 6.24% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 195.04 | +2.65% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 7 | QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated | 6.04% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 151.60 | -2.62% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 8 | AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. | 3.82% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 501.77 | +14.97% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 9 | TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | 3.73% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 278.76 | +2.75% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 10 | LRCX Lam Research Corporation | 3.61% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-30 | 297.72 | +17.98% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
- First Trust 说明该持仓页反映前一营业日申赎交易，可能与托管/会计代理当前持仓不同。
DRAM · 2026-07-31 · 涨跌覆盖 10/10
- 发行商：Roundhill Investments / Roundhill Financial Inc.
- 持仓口径：发行商合并股票与 swap 的证券敞口
- 来源：发行商持仓文件
| 排名 | 成分 | 权重 | 持仓日期 | 价格日期 | 收盘 | 单日涨跌 | 价格来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC | 29.16% | 2026-07-31 | 2026-07-30 | 874.66 | +18.36% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 2 | 005930.KS Samsung Electronics Co Ltd | 23.40% | 2026-07-31 | 2026-07-31 | 262,500.00 | +26.81% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 3 | 000660.KS SK hynix Inc | 20.27% | 2026-07-31 | 2026-07-31 | 1,718,000.00 | +29.95% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 4 | STX Seagate Technology Holdings PLC | 5.62% | 2026-07-31 | 2026-07-30 | 851.68 | +11.41% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 5 | WDC Western Digital Corp | 5.45% | 2026-07-31 | 2026-07-30 | 533.04 | +15.37% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 6 | SNDK Sandisk Corp | 4.44% | 2026-07-31 | 2026-07-30 | 1,279.96 | +25.99% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 7 | 285A.T Kioxia Holdings Corp | 2.98% | 2026-07-31 | 2026-07-31 | 46,500.00 | +17.72% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 8 | 2408.TW Nanya Technology Corp | 1.97% | 2026-07-31 | 2026-07-31 | 360.50 | +9.91% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 9 | 603986.SS GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc | 1.68% | 2026-07-31 | 2026-07-31 | 378.60 | +2.02% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 10 | 2344.TW Winbond Electronics Corp | 0.95% | 2026-07-31 | 2026-07-31 | 130.00 | +9.70% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
- Roundhill 按官网口径合并同一证券的股票与 total return swap 权重；现金、国债和货币市场工具未纳入可报价成分表。
KMEM · 2026-07-30 · 涨跌覆盖 2/3
- 发行商：Kurv Investment Management LLC
- 持仓口径：发行商官方可报价股票主线位
- 来源：发行商持仓文件
| 排名 | 成分 | 权重 | 持仓日期 | 价格日期 | 收盘 | 单日涨跌 | 价格来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 000660.KS SK hynix Inc | 18.70% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-31 | 1,718,000.00 | +29.95% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 2 | 005930.KS Samsung Electronics Co Ltd | 6.04% | 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-31 | 262,500.00 | +26.81% | Yahoo Finance chart API |
| 3 | FIGXX FIDELITY INV MMKT GOVT-I 12/31/2031 | 2.84% | 2026-07-30 | - | N/A | 未取得 | No two completed daily close rows were available on or before the report date. |
- KMEM 当前官方文件中的期权、国债和现金无法用普通股票收盘价表达单日涨跌，未纳入可报价成分表。
重要文章与快讯
重要文章
| 重要性 | 中文标题 | 发布日期 | 来源 | 相关标的 | 评级理由 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/5 高 | 科技业绩重燃人工智能交易 | 2026-07-31 | Reuters | AMZN, DX-Y.NYB, MSFT | 当日业绩与市场反应同时更新，直接关联MSFT、AMZN及人工智能基础设施情绪。 |
| 5/5 高 | 特斯拉中国业务分拆传闻 | 2026-07-31 | Quartz | SPCX, TSLA | 涉及TSLA与SPCX潜在重大公司行为，但消息冲突且未经正式确认。 |
| 5/5 高 | 云巨头继续加码人工智能基建 | 2026-07-31 | Bloomberg | 005930.KS, 005935.KS, AMZN, CRWV, GOOG, INTC, META, MSFT | 高质量来源集中呈现超大规模云厂商资本开支与回报分化，直接影响NBIS所在链条。 |
| 5/5 高 | 芯片研发补贴附带股权条件 | 2026-07-30 | Reuters | GFS | 政府资金、GFS直接金额和股权条件均有明确事实依据。 |
| 5/5 高 | 美国二季度GDP增速降至1.5% | 2026-07-30 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis | - | 最新官方GDP初值直接对应US_GDP，覆盖增长、内需和价格指标。 |
| 5/5 高 | 六月核心PCE同比升至3.3% | 2026-07-30 | U.S. BEA | - | 最新官方PCE通胀、消费和收入数据直接对应US_PCE，发布接近日报日期。 |
| 5/5 高 | 美联储维持利率但现三票加息异议 | 2026-07-29 | Federal Reserve | - | 最新FOMC决定、利率区间和三票加息异议直接关联FED并影响跨资产利率定价。 |
| 5/5 高 | 杠杆芯片基金复原门槛 | 2026-07-29 | Yahoo Finance | SKHY, SOXL, SOXX, ^KS11 | 直接覆盖SOXL、SOXX的回撤和杠杆机制，并提供规模数据。 |
| 5/5 高 | 微软云与智能业务加速 | 2026-07-29 | Microsoft Investor Relations | - | 微软官方财报在发布后两日内提供云业务、人工智能商业化、合同积压与利润调整的一手高密度信息，直接关联MSFT。 |
| 5/5 高 | 微软上调云增长与投入预期 | 2026-07-29 | Microsoft Investor Relations | - | 官方电话会在财报发布后提供Azure下一季度指引、供给约束、资本开支、利润率和Copilot采用的增量一手信息，直接关联MSFT。 |
| 5/5 高 | 应用数字超算租约与融资进展 | 2026-07-27 | Applied Digital | APLD, CHRN | 公司正式披露覆盖业绩、合同、融资和关联标的，且金额与执行节点明确。 |
| 5/5 高 | 霍尔木兹确认事故累计62起 | 2026-07-27 | International Maritime Organization | - | 官方确认的霍尔木兹航运事故累计与最新事件直接关联航运和能源运输风险。 |
| 4/5 中高 | 存储基金回撤后的资金黏性 | 2026-07-31 | etf.com | 005930.KS, BTC-USD, DRAM, IBIT, SKHY | 直接关联DRAM及存储主题资金结构，但证据以播客讨论为主。 |
| 4/5 中高 | 磷化铟扩产连接光模块需求 | 2026-07-30 | MarketBeat | AXTI, COHR | COHR上游供货、订单和产能数据齐备，但部分内容为前瞻性管理层口径。 |
| 4/5 中高 | Circle供给预测下修 | 2026-07-30 | TheStreet | CRCL, IBM, USDC-USD | 直接覆盖CRCL业绩前的核心规模和收入预期变化，但证据是单一分析师模型。 |
| 4/5 高 | 美国制裁马汉航空跨国网络 | 2026-07-30 | U.S. Department of the Treasury | - | 最新官方制裁行动直接关联IRAN_SANCTIONS及地区物流和金融合规风险，但实际经济影响尚未量化。 |
| 4/5 中高 | 康宁指引落差的光互连边界 | 2026-07-29 | Insider Monkey | COHR, GLW | 为COHR提供相邻供应链的最新需求读数，并清楚保留可比边界。 |
金十快讯
美国6月PCE环比转负、核心通胀降温
美国6月PCE环比-0.1%，为2020年以来首次月度下降；同比由4.1%降至3.7%。核心PCE环比0.1%、同比3.3%，均较前值回落。
美国二季度GDP增速低于预期
美国二季度实际GDP年化季率初值1.5%，低于2.1%预期；消费者支出年化增长3.2%，AI投资支撑企业投资。
卡什卡利披露支持加息25个基点
卡什卡利称在本次FOMC会议上持异议，更倾向将基准利率提高25个基点；哈玛克同期称就业稳定时应聚焦高通胀，当前政策尚不够紧。
英国央行保留进一步加息选项
英国央行维持利率不变，三名票委支持加息；贝利称若冲突持续推升通胀，可能需继续加息，同时国内通胀正广泛放缓。
日本央行维持1%，一名委员支持加息
日本央行以8比1维持政策利率1%；高田创支持加息25个基点。央行上调2026、2027财年GDP预期并提示潜在通胀、AI投资和存储价格的上行影响。
欧元区7月通胀回升
欧元区7月CPI同比由2.8%升至2.9%，核心CPI由2.4%升至2.5%，服务通胀3.3%；高油价构成价格压力。
中国7月官方PMI重回收缩区间
制造业PMI 49.2，低于50.1预期和50.3前值；非制造业PMI 49.0，综合PMI 49.3。高技术制造业PMI仍为53.3。
美元料创三个月最差单周表现
美元指数本周料跌1.2%，即使美债收益率上行仍走弱；金十转述市场数据称长期美债收益率升至2007年以来最高。
巴西就美国关税诉诸WTO
世界贸易组织称，巴西已就美国加征关税提起争端解决诉讼。
美国限制含关键矿物电子废弃物出口
特朗普签署行政命令，授权阻止含关键矿物的废旧电池及其他电子废弃物出口，以推动国内回收并降低关键材料依赖。
美以据报讨论对伊朗实施陆地封锁
《每日电讯报》报道称，美国和以色列讨论通过地区伙伴收紧伊朗边境口岸，以进一步施加经济压力。
伊朗称扣留两艘油轮并要求通行许可
伊朗革命卫队称在霍尔木兹海峡击中并扣留两艘试图在美军护航下通行的油轮，另有四艘改道，并重申通行需获伊朗许可。
沙特推动多国海洋防御联盟
沙特主办会议讨论建立海洋防御联盟；14国联合声明支持加强曼德海峡、红海和亚丁湾防务合作。
布伦特原油盘中重返88美元
布伦特原油在报告时点前站上88美元/桶、日内涨1.3%；此前亚洲时段一度跌至约84.24美元，显示日内波动显著。
现货黄金盘中跌逾1%
现货黄金日内跌超1%，报4062.35美元/盎司。
美股反弹，存储芯片领涨
周四道指收涨1.19%、标普500涨1.67%、纳指涨2.78%；美光涨18%、闪迪涨26%、SK海力士ADR涨17%。
KOSPI创历史最大单日涨幅
KOSPI收涨17.91%至6595.44点，SK海力士涨30%、三星电子近27%；但7月累计仍跌22.4%，较6月峰值回落30%。
A股普涨，AI硬件反弹
上证涨0.72%、深证涨2.21%、创业板涨3.06%、科创50涨2.99%；两市成交2.5417万亿元、逾4600股上涨。
港股窄幅收涨，AI与存储反弹
恒指收涨0.1%、7月涨逾13%；恒生科技涨0.53%、7月涨近8%，成交3281.7亿港元。
欧洲科技股推动斯托克600创新高
报告时点前欧洲斯托克600涨0.8%并创新高，阿斯麦涨3.4%、德国Infineon涨7%。
微软业绩带动全球科技与半导体反弹
微软前一交易日涨15.51%、市值增加约4500亿美元；亚洲与欧洲半导体股随后普涨。同期标普500虽强涨，但市场广度仍偏弱。
欧盟8月2日起执行新增AI透明度要求
欧盟委员会称将从8月2日起执行《人工智能法》相关规定，要求聊天机器人披露AI身份，并标识AI生成或修改的深度伪造内容。
亚马逊披露对OpenAI大额股权投资
亚马逊称截至6月30日的六个月向OpenAI C轮优先股投资287亿美元，其中二季度137亿美元。
卡什卡利披露支持加息25个基点
快讯正文
卡什卡利称在本次FOMC会议上持异议，更倾向将基准利率提高25个基点；哈玛克同期称就业稳定时应聚焦高通胀，当前政策尚不够紧。
布伦特原油盘中重返88美元
快讯正文
布伦特原油在报告时点前站上88美元/桶、日内涨1.3%；此前亚洲时段一度跌至约84.24美元，显示日内波动显著。
欧盟8月2日起执行新增AI透明度要求
快讯正文
欧盟委员会称将从8月2日起执行《人工智能法》相关规定，要求聊天机器人披露AI身份，并标识AI生成或修改的深度伪造内容。
日央行账户数据指向大规模汇市干预
快讯正文
外媒结合日央行账户数据估算，日本周四或动用约8.45万亿日元（约528亿美元）支撑日元；日元盘中一度升3.3%。官方尚未最终确认。
美国限制含关键矿物电子废弃物出口
快讯正文
特朗普签署行政命令，授权阻止含关键矿物的废旧电池及其他电子废弃物出口，以推动国内回收并降低关键材料依赖。
亚马逊披露对OpenAI大额股权投资
快讯正文
亚马逊称截至6月30日的六个月向OpenAI C轮优先股投资287亿美元，其中二季度137亿美元。
美元料创三个月最差单周表现
快讯正文
美元指数本周料跌1.2%，即使美债收益率上行仍走弱；金十转述市场数据称长期美债收益率升至2007年以来最高。
美以据报讨论对伊朗实施陆地封锁
快讯正文
《每日电讯报》报道称，美国和以色列讨论通过地区伙伴收紧伊朗边境口岸，以进一步施加经济压力。
伊朗称扣留两艘油轮并要求通行许可
快讯正文
伊朗革命卫队称在霍尔木兹海峡击中并扣留两艘试图在美军护航下通行的油轮，另有四艘改道，并重申通行需获伊朗许可。
欧元区7月通胀回升
快讯正文
欧元区7月CPI同比由2.8%升至2.9%，核心CPI由2.4%升至2.5%，服务通胀3.3%；高油价构成价格压力。
港股窄幅收涨，AI与存储反弹
快讯正文
恒指收涨0.1%、7月涨逾13%；恒生科技涨0.53%、7月涨近8%，成交3281.7亿港元。
现货黄金盘中跌逾1%
快讯正文
现货黄金日内跌超1%，报4062.35美元/盎司。
日本央行维持1%，一名委员支持加息
快讯正文
日本央行以8比1维持政策利率1%；高田创支持加息25个基点。央行上调2026、2027财年GDP预期并提示潜在通胀、AI投资和存储价格的上行影响。
欧洲科技股推动斯托克600创新高
快讯正文
报告时点前欧洲斯托克600涨0.8%并创新高，阿斯麦涨3.4%、德国Infineon涨7%。
A股普涨，AI硬件反弹
快讯正文
上证涨0.72%、深证涨2.21%、创业板涨3.06%、科创50涨2.99%；两市成交2.5417万亿元、逾4600股上涨。
微软业绩带动全球科技与半导体反弹
快讯正文
微软前一交易日涨15.51%、市值增加约4500亿美元；亚洲与欧洲半导体股随后普涨。同期标普500虽强涨，但市场广度仍偏弱。
KOSPI创历史最大单日涨幅
快讯正文
KOSPI收涨17.91%至6595.44点，SK海力士涨30%、三星电子近27%；但7月累计仍跌22.4%，较6月峰值回落30%。
中国7月官方PMI重回收缩区间
快讯正文
制造业PMI 49.2，低于50.1预期和50.3前值；非制造业PMI 49.0，综合PMI 49.3。高技术制造业PMI仍为53.3。
美股反弹，存储芯片领涨
快讯正文
周四道指收涨1.19%、标普500涨1.67%、纳指涨2.78%；美光涨18%、闪迪涨26%、SK海力士ADR涨17%。
沙特推动多国海洋防御联盟
快讯正文
沙特主办会议讨论建立海洋防御联盟；14国联合声明支持加强曼德海峡、红海和亚丁湾防务合作。
巴西就美国关税诉诸WTO
快讯正文
世界贸易组织称，巴西已就美国加征关税提起争端解决诉讼。
美国二季度GDP增速低于预期
快讯正文
美国二季度实际GDP年化季率初值1.5%，低于2.1%预期；消费者支出年化增长3.2%，AI投资支撑企业投资。
美国6月PCE环比转负、核心通胀降温
快讯正文
美国6月PCE环比-0.1%，为2020年以来首次月度下降；同比由4.1%降至3.7%。核心PCE环比0.1%、同比3.3%，均较前值回落。
英国央行保留进一步加息选项
快讯正文
英国央行维持利率不变，三名票委支持加息；贝利称若冲突持续推升通胀，可能需继续加息，同时国内通胀正广泛放缓。
事实参考
以下为事实表、数据对照、账户细项与来源口径，默认折叠；需要核对数据时展开。
美股 / ETF / 公开文章事实
美股 / ETF / 公开行情
| 标的 | IBKR 当前价 | 较前交易日 | 盘后/收盘后 | 上一交易日收盘 | 今日常规收盘 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MSFT | 448.96 | +14.96% | -0.47% | 390.54 | 451.10 |
NVDA | 196.73 | +3.54% | +0.87% | 190.01 | 195.04 |
MRVL | 193.21 | +18.24% | +5.41% | 163.40 | 183.30 |
GFS | 52.19 | +10.88% | +4.61% | 47.07 | 49.89 |
APLD | 29.43 | +26.74% | +5.22% | 23.22 | 27.97 |
USAR | 15.03 | +15.00% | +2.59% | 13.07 | 14.65 |
SOXX | 519.76 | +11.78% | +3.02% | 465.00 | 504.53 |
SOXL | 125.12 | +36.01% | +9.07% | 91.99 | 114.72 |
FTXL | 226.24 | +13.08% | +3.87% | 200.07 | 217.82 |
PSI | 142.20 | +17.81% | +5.43% | 120.70 | 134.87 |
DRAM | 54.22 | +20.89% | +3.59% | 44.85 | 52.34 |
KMEM | 17.85 | +22.68% | +5.56% | 14.55 | 16.91 |
VRT | 238.84 | +7.08% | +4.98% | 223.04 | 227.50 |
COHR | 264.00 | +18.89% | +6.00% | 222.05 | 249.06 |
CRCL | 62.88 | +2.48% | -2.12% | 61.36 | 64.24 |
SPCX | 112.89 | +0.30% | +0.61% | 112.55 | 112.20 |
GOOG | 337.59 | +0.55% | +1.17% | 335.76 | 333.68 |
NBIS | 204.00 | +37.63% | +8.26% | 148.22 | 188.43 |
美股事实与文章索引
| 标的 | IBKR 当前价 | 较前交易日 | 盘后/收盘后 | 文章数 | 数据缺口 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MSFT | 448.96 | +14.96% | -0.47% | 8 条 | - |
NVDA | 196.73 | +3.54% | +0.87% | 8 条 | - |
MRVL | 193.21 | +18.24% | +5.41% | 8 条 | - |
GFS | 52.19 | +10.88% | +4.61% | 8 条 | - |
APLD | 29.43 | +26.74% | +5.22% | 8 条 | - |
USAR | 15.03 | +15.00% | +2.59% | 8 条 | - |
SOXX | 519.76 | +11.78% | +3.02% | 8 条 | - |
SOXL | 125.12 | +36.01% | +9.07% | 8 条 | - |
FTXL | 226.24 | +13.08% | +3.87% | 8 条 | - |
PSI | 142.20 | +17.81% | +5.43% | 8 条 | - |
DRAM | 54.22 | +20.89% | +3.59% | 8 条 | - |
KMEM | 17.85 | +22.68% | +5.56% | 8 条 | - |
VRT | 238.84 | +7.08% | +4.98% | 8 条 | - |
COHR | 264.00 | +18.89% | +6.00% | 8 条 | - |
CRCL | 62.88 | +2.48% | -2.12% | 8 条 | - |
SPCX | 112.89 | +0.30% | +0.61% | 8 条 | - |
GOOG | 337.59 | +0.55% | +1.17% | 8 条 | - |
NBIS | 204.00 | +37.63% | +8.26% | 8 条 | - |
入选文章原文与摘要
科技业绩重燃人工智能交易
重要性5/5 高
当日业绩与市场反应同时更新，直接关联MSFT、AMZN及人工智能基础设施情绪。
中文摘要
核心结论
路透报道，微软与亚马逊的业绩和资本开支信号缓解了市场对人工智能投入回报的担忧，带动全球风险资产反弹；日元干预、中东冲突与油价仍是同日的宏观扰动。
重要性评级
评级：5/5（高）。文章发布于美股盘前，直接覆盖 MSFT（微软）和 AMZN（亚马逊）的业绩读数，并连接汇率、能源与美债市场。
关键事实
- 纳斯达克100指数期货上涨1.05%，标普500指数与道琼斯指数期货分别上涨0.32%和0.45%。
- 微软在周三业绩中预计2027财年持续产生现金；亚马逊随后披露云业务录得四年多来最快增速。
- MSCI ACWI（明晟全球所有国家股票指数）上涨0.81%，但若当时水平维持，7月仍将下跌0.40%。
- 日本央行维持利率不变；美元兑日元报160.09，日内上涨0.35%。市场消息人士称日本周四曾买入日元、卖出美元。
- 布伦特原油7月走高，霍尔木兹海峡航运仍受阻；美国30年期国债收益率下行2.32个基点，但接近19年高位。
作者观点与证据
路透将反弹归因于两家云巨头以业绩验证人工智能基础设施需求。该判断以公司业绩、期货和指数行情为基础；日元干预为市场消息人士说法，冲突升级与油运风险尚未量化其对企业盈利的影响。
与相关标的的关系
MSFT与AMZN的云业务增速及现金生成预期，是文章中人工智能投入回报的直接证据。相关芯片、网络和云计算公司受资本开支预期影响，但本文未提供它们的订单或盈利数据。
时效性与限制（仅在有新增信息时）
发布于美东时间 07/31 08:05（UTC+8 07/31 20:05）。市场价格和期货变化为报道时点快照，后续日内波动可能改变结论。
后续跟踪
- 微软2027财年现金生成与资本开支兑现。
- 亚马逊云业务增速及利润率。
- 日本央行政策和日元干预后的汇率表现。
- 霍尔木兹航运、油价与长期美债收益率。
英文原文
Stocks climb as strong tech results reignite AI trade, yen swings
Stocks climb as strong tech results reignite AI trade, yen swings
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 30, 2026. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon · Reuters
By Niket Nishant
Fri, July 31, 2026 at 9:05 PM GMT+9 4 min read
- JPY=X
+0.46%
By Niket Nishant
July 31 (Reuters) - Global stocks rallied on Friday as robust results from Amazon and Microsoft reassured bruised investors to return to AI trade, while currency traders stayed alert to intervention a day after Japanese authorities likely stepped in to prop up the yen.
An abrupt strengthening in the Japanese currency earlier in the session faded, with the dollar last up 0.35% at 160.09 yen, after the Bank of Japan held interest rates steady.
"The yen fundamentals and technicals are very poor. Intervention is not a credible, long-term solution," said Lauren van Biljon, senior portfolio manager, rates and FX, at Allspring Global Investments.
Meanwhile, investor worries that the AI rally may soon run out of steam eased after Microsoft's earnings on Wednesday, where it forecast generating cash throughout fiscal 2027.
Amazon followed a day later with its strongest cloud growth in more than four years, calming investors eager for signs that the billions being poured into AI buildout are bearing fruit.
In Europe, the STOXX 600 index hit a record high and was poised for its fourth consecutive month of gains.
Futures tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index rose 1.05%, while S&P 500 and Dow futures rose 0.32% and 0.45%, respectively.
South Korea's battered KOSPI leapt 17.91%, mounting a record comeback after heavy losses earlier this week. The tech-heavy bourse, still about 30% off its all-time high, has become emblematic of the sharp swings in investor sentiment towards AI-related stocks.
"Investors are increasingly focused on capital efficiency, financing and the long-term economics of hyperscalers' AI spending rather than on near-term demand," said Saverio Papagno, portfolio manager of North Square Growth Opportunities ETF.
While worries about competition from China and AI hyperscalers' debt reliance swirl, selloffs could be a buying opportunity for long-term investors as "the sector will resume its leadership" once there is greater clarity, he said.
The MSCI All Country World Price index gained 0.81% and was on track to snap a two-week losing streak. It will still end the month with losses of 0.40% should current levels hold.
BOJ HOLDS RATES DAY AFTER INTERVENTION
The yen had gained on Thursday, when Japan conducted yen-buying, dollar-selling intervention, a market source said.
But such efforts have had limited success in reversing the weakness in the currency, and analysts say the outlook may not improve unless the central bank raises rates.
The BOJ kept interest rates unchanged on Friday, but signalled its resolve to push up borrowing costs.
Story Continues
At a press conference, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said inflation risks were skewed to the upside, and the central bank was prepared to speed up the pace of rate hikes should monetary conditions be accommodative.
"I wish they'd come out and just hiked maybe every other month through this year. It's difficult because of the gain in oil prices, but with core inflation pretty well-behaved I think they could have done that," Allspring's van Biljon said.
WAR KEEPS MARKETS ON EDGE
The Middle East conflict remains a major overhang for global equities. Fresh strikes in the region have dashed hopes of an imminent resolution, and diplomatic efforts to end the war have proceeded in fits and starts.
Oil prices rose sharply in July, with Brent crude headed for monthly gains for the first time since March. [O/R]
"The shock absorbers in oil markets are dwindling fast, so a failure to de-escalate would be materially costlier than previous rounds of tension," wrote Teddy Bunzel, head of Lazard Geopolitical Advisory at Lazard Asset Management.
Shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted. The alternative route through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has also come under attack from the Iranian-backed Houthis, further worsening the outlook.
The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury slipped 2.32 basis points but held close to 19-year highs. Short-end yields eased, steepening the curve as doubts grow over the Federal Reserve's ability to anchor inflation expectations. [US/]
The Fed stood pat on rates earlier this week, but commentary from the chair confused markets.
(Reporting by Niket Nishant in Bengaluru and Rae Wee in Singapore; Editing by Clarence Fernandez, Mrigank Dhaniwala and Arun Koyyur)
特斯拉中国业务分拆传闻
重要性5/5 高
涉及TSLA与SPCX潜在重大公司行为，但消息冲突且未经正式确认。
中文摘要
核心结论
《华尔街日报》称特斯拉可能为与SpaceX潜在合并而考虑出售、分拆或关闭中国业务；马斯克和特斯拉中国代表均否认。报道涉及重大公司结构传闻，但没有正式交易公告。
重要性评级
评级：5/5（高）。文章关联TSLA（特斯拉）与SPCX（SpaceX），涉及潜在合并、中国业务和美国政府承包资质；当事方否认使核验优先级更高。
关键事实
- 报道称特斯拉高管被要求为中国业务分拆做准备，方案包括出售、分拆或关闭。
- 马斯克在X平台称报道“完全虚假”，特斯拉中国代表也向彭博否认。
- SpaceX在2025年约20.9%收入来自美国政府合同，业务包括机密载荷发射和战区网络连接。
- 上海工厂承担特斯拉全球交付逾半数，并服务欧洲、加拿大和亚太市场；中国占特斯拉2026年上半年销售约18%。
- SpaceX于6月首次公开募股筹资750亿美元；报道提及特斯拉自2023年以来向SpaceX及xAI出售约8.90亿美元车辆和电池。
作者观点与证据
文章以《华尔街日报》匿名消息人士描述潜在重组逻辑，并以SpaceX国防合同和特斯拉中国制造规模解释监管敏感性。马斯克与特斯拉中国公开否认构成相反证据，尚无董事会、监管申报或合并协议验证。
与相关标的的关系
TSLA直接面临中国工厂、销售和供应链的结构性影响；SPCX直接涉及潜在合并和政府合同审查。两者已有商业往来及Terafab芯片制造合作，但这些事实不证明合并正在推进。
时效性与限制（仅在有新增信息时）
发布于美东时间 07/31 07:56（UTC+8 07/31 19:56）。该报道与当事方否认并存，信息状态为未证实传闻。
后续跟踪
- 两家公司董事会、监管文件或正式公告。
- 特斯拉中国工厂的产销和出口数据。
- SpaceX政府合同与监管审查动态。
- 特斯拉与SpaceX既有交易及关联方披露。
英文原文
Tesla weighs sale of China business ahead of SpaceX merger
Tesla weighs sale of China business ahead of SpaceX merger
Tesla weighs sale of China business ahead of SpaceX merger · Quartz · Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images
Cris Tolomia
Fri, July 31, 2026 at 8:56 PM GMT+9 2 min read
- TSLA
+3.53%
- SPCX
-0.31%
Tesla is weighing options to separate its China business — including a sale, spinoff, or closure — as it prepares for a potential merger with SpaceX, according to the Wall Street Journal . A person familiar with the discussions said certain Tesla executives received instructions to ready themselves for the China split in anticipation of a potential merger, while a separate individual told the paper that Tesla advisers had weighed an array of possible paths forward.
Elon Musk, who serves as chief executive of both Tesla and SpaceX, denied the report on his X social media platform on Thursday, calling it "absurdly fake news" and saying the topic had never come up in any discussion. A Tesla China representative separately called the report "false information," according to Bloomberg .
The core complication driving the reported discussions is SpaceX's role as a major U.S. defense contractor. SpaceX's government work includes putting classified payloads into orbit and running internet connectivity in active war zones, and the Journal noted that U.S. government contracts accounted for approximately 20.9% of the company's revenue in 2025. Combining SpaceX with a company that operates factories in China would likely draw intense scrutiny from Beijing, which could seek guarantees that SpaceX's influence over Tesla's Chinese operations would be limited.
The Shanghai facility is Tesla's biggest and highest-output factory anywhere in the world, responsible for over half of all vehicles the company delivers globally and functioning as a key shipping point for customers in Europe, Canada, and the Asia-Pacific region. China made up roughly 18% of Tesla's sales in the first half of 2026. Where many of its Western peers have had to share ownership of their Chinese factories with domestic companies, Tesla holds its manufacturing operations there outright.
The Journal reported that over recent years Musk pushed Tesla executives to build a sharp structural boundary separating the company's American and Chinese operations, driven by anxiety over what would happen to Tesla's supply of batteries from Chinese vendors and chips from Taiwan if relations between the two countries broke down into open conflict.
Speculation about a Tesla-SpaceX merger has grown since SpaceX completed its IPO in June, raising $75 billion — the largest public offering on record. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell declined to rule out a merger on the day of the IPO, saying the two companies share overlapping goals. Speaking to investors on Tesla's most recent earnings call, Musk stopped short of dismissing a merger, noting that any such combination would have to follow proper procedures rather than be hashed out on a conference call.
Story Continues
The two companies already have deep commercial ties. Tesla has sold roughly $890 million worth of vehicles and batteries to SpaceX and its subsidiary xAI since 2023. Tesla also holds a stake in SpaceX, and the two companies are collaborating on a chip manufacturing initiative called Terafab.
Tesla stock was up about 2% in premarket trading following the report.
云巨头继续加码人工智能基建
重要性5/5 高
高质量来源集中呈现超大规模云厂商资本开支与回报分化，直接影响NBIS所在链条。
中文摘要
核心结论
亚马逊、微软、Alphabet和Meta的业绩沟通显示人工智能基础设施资本开支未明显放缓，利好芯片与网络设备需求预期；市场开始要求企业同时证明投入回报。
重要性评级
评级：5/5（高）。彭博汇总多家超大规模云服务商的资本开支、云业务与市场反应，直接关联NBIS（Nebius）及其所处的人工智能基础设施链条。
关键事实
- 亚马逊将2026年资本开支预期由2000亿美元上调至2200亿美元，首席执行官称大部分将投向人工智能。
- 微软维持资本开支预期，Alphabet上调投入展望，Meta提高资本开支指引下限。
- 亚马逊云计算收入连续第五个季度加速；微软业绩后单日市值增加4500亿美元，报道称为史上最大单日增幅。
- Meta在弱销售指引与近7000亿美元未来支出承诺后下跌近8%。
- Alphabet于07/23在将2026年资本开支预期由1900亿美元上调至1950亿至2050亿美元后，下跌7.1%。
- 文中提及NBIS、CoreWeave、英特尔、英伟达、三星电子和SK海力士在此前回撤后出现反弹。
作者观点与证据
彭博将资本开支上调或维持视为芯片与设备需求的支撑，并引述彭博行业研究称2026至2027年计算和网络芯片共识预测上行概率提高。文章也引用分析师警示：数据中心公司可在必要时放缓支出，需求利好并不保证股价持续上行。
与相关标的的关系
NBIS属于文中提到的人工智能基础设施受关注公司，但文章未提供其订单、产能或财务数据。MSFT、AMZN、GOOG与META提供需求端资本开支证据，NVDA、INTC和存储厂商反映供应链联动。
时效性与限制（仅在有新增信息时）
发布于美东时间 07/30 20:29（UTC+8 07/31 08:29）。部分支出为公司前瞻指引，尚未形成实际采购或供应商收入。
后续跟踪
- 云巨头资本开支实际执行与设备交付。
- 云业务收入、利润率和投资回报披露。
- NBIS及同行的客户合同与融资进度。
- 芯片、网络和存储供应商订单变化。
英文原文
Amazon, Microsoft Results Show AI Spending Spree Remains Solid
Amazon, Microsoft Results Show AI Spending Spree Remains Solid
Dina Bass and Zsana Hoskins
Fri, July 31, 2026 at 9:29 AM GMT+9 3 min read
- MSFT
+15.51%
- GOOG
-0.62%
- 005935.KS
+26.49%
- CRWV
+21.51%
- WFC
+1.86%
(Bloomberg) -- Aggressive AI spending plans by Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc. provided fresh evidence that demand for chips and related equipment will remain strong, offering relief to a sector that's been battered in recent days.
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Amazon boosted its forecast for full-year capital expenditures to $220 billion on Thursday, up from a previous estimate of $200 billion. And Chief Executive Officer Andy Jassy said most of that spending will go toward artificial intelligence.
The outlook was part of a rush of earnings reports delivered by so-called hyperscalers — the world's largest cloud computing providers — and they showed there's been no letup in ambitions for building AI infrastructure.
Microsoft affirmed its capital expenditure forecast, absent the impact of an accounting change. Google parent Alphabet raised its spending outlook, and Meta Platforms Inc. increased the low end of its guidance for capital expenditures.
That's good news for the businesses that make chips, networking gear and other technology used in data centers. Fears of a potential spending slowdown had weighed on shares of those companies.
Now their outlook for the coming year is brightening, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Kunjan Sobhani and Oscar Hernandez Tejada.
"With most large hyperscalers raising or reiterating capital spending plans in their earnings commentary, the likelihood of upside to 2026-27 consensus for computing and networking chipmakers is growing," they said in a note.
Amazon investors applauded its results, which showed that cloud computing revenue accelerated for a fifth straight quarter. The message: The company's spending spree is getting results.
Microsoft got a similarly warm reception. It added nearly half a trillion dollars to its valuation on Thursday after reporting the fastest cloud growth in four years. The $450 billion increase to its market capitalization was the biggest single bump for any company in history.
Investors were less impressed with Meta and Alphabet. In both cases, the companies were dogged by concerns that their expenditures didn't have a clear payoff.
Meta, owner of Facebook and Instagram, dropped nearly 8% on Thursday following its report. It delivered a weak sales forecast paired with commitments for almost $700 billion in future spending.
Story Continues
It's no longer enough to show that a company is investing heavily in AI, said Ken Gawrelski, an analyst at Wells Fargo & Co. Investors increasingly want to see a return, he said.
"Go back 12 to 18 months ago, it was about how much could you spend and how much capacity could you bring online," he said. "Now the market has pivoted, and is rightly focused on the return on investment."
Google fell 7.1% on July 23, the day after projecting full-year capital expenditures will be $195 billion to $205 billion in 2026. That was up from a previous forecast of $190 billion.
In any case, all that spending is poised to benefit suppliers that had been under a cloud recently.
Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc., which make memory chips, slumped earlier this week — only to rebound on the latest spending signals. CoreWeave Inc., Nebius Group NV, Intel Corp. and Nvidia Corp. are emerging from similar slumps.
Several of these companies were among the public holdings of Leopold Aschenbrenner's hedge fund, Situational Awareness, which sold off some of its equity positions after suffering losses in the AI stock rout in recent weeks, according to people familiar with the matter. That may have accounted for some of the stock declines.
The question now is whether chipmakers and other equipment makers can maintain a resurgence, said Bloomberg Intelligence's Sobhani. Data center companies indicated that they may slow spending if needed, he noted, so a windfall isn't guaranteed.
"For semiconductor stocks, it should help stabilize sentiment, but might not be enough to swing things around for a large upside in stocks," he said.
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芯片研发补贴附带股权条件
重要性5/5 高
政府资金、GFS直接金额和股权条件均有明确事实依据。
中文摘要
核心结论
美国商务部签署合计8.74亿美元的七份半导体激励意向书，支持人工智能与先进计算技术；资金尚待审查和最终授予，政府拟取得受资助公司少数股权。
重要性评级
评级：5/5（高）。路透提供了政府部门、金额、受资助项目及附带条件，GFS（格芯）为直接相关标的。
关键事实
- 美国商务部于07/30宣布，依据《芯片与科学法案》签署7份激励意向书，总额8.74亿美元。
- GFS最高可获3亿美元，开发共封装光学技术，将以光传输数据的互连与人工智能处理器结合。
- Kepler最高获2.45亿美元用于新型人工智能存储技术；Multibeam最高获1.40亿美元用于先进封装设备。
- Extropic、Thintronics、OBSIDIA Semiconductors与Aeluma各获3000万至7500万美元，覆盖低功耗计算、材料与防伪检测等项目。
- 商务部表示将在进一步审查和最终授奖前，取得每家公司的少数股权。
作者观点与证据
文章以商务部公告为主要证据，将项目置于扩大美国本土产能、降低海外供应依赖的政策框架中。意向书不等于最终拨款，未披露最终条款、资金支付节奏或项目商业化结果。
与相关标的的关系
GFS直接对应最高3亿美元潜在激励及共封装光学项目。其余受资助企业可能影响人工智能芯片、存储和先进封装供应链，但文章未说明GFS的收入确认或盈利影响。
时效性与限制（仅在有新增信息时）
发布于美东时间 07/30 14:29（UTC+8 07/31 02:29）。该事项处于意向和审查阶段，最终授予与政府持股安排仍可能变动。
后续跟踪
- 最终授奖金额、条件与拨付时间。
- GFS共封装光学项目的合作方和量产节点。
- 少数股权的估值、治理权与退出条款。
- 其他受资助公司技术的商业化进度。
英文原文
US signs letters of intent worth $874 million to boost semiconductor research
US signs letters of intent worth $874 million to boost semiconductor research
Illustration picture of semiconductor chips · Reuters
Reuters
Fri, July 31, 2026 at 3:29 AM GMT+9 1 min read
- GFS
+5.99%
(Corrects day of the week to Thursday from Tuesday in first paragraph)
July 30 (Reuters) - The U.S. Department of Commerce said on Thursday it has signed letters of intent to provide $874 million in incentives to seven companies developing semiconductor technologies for AI and advanced computing systems.
The funding, to be issued under the CHIPS and Science Act, is part of a broader U.S. effort to strengthen domestic semiconductor production and reduce dependence on foreign suppliers.
Here are some details:
• GlobalFoundries will receive up to $300 million for the development of co-packaged optics, which combine light-based data transfer with AI processors for faster computing.
• Kepler was allotted up to $245 million for new AI memory technology, while Multibeam Corporation will get up to $140 million for advanced chip-packaging equipment.
• Extropic, Thintronics, OBSIDIA Semiconductors and Aeluma will receive amounts ranging from $30 million to $75 million, for projects ranging from lower-power computing technologies and advanced chip materials to systems that detect counterfeit components.
• The Commerce Department added it will take minority equity stakes in each company as part of the funding agreements, pending further review before final awards.
(Reporting by Anhata Rooprai in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber)
美国二季度GDP增速降至1.5%
重要性5/5 高
最新官方GDP初值直接对应US_GDP，覆盖增长、内需和价格指标。
中文摘要
核心结论
美国二季度实际GDP（国内生产总值）按年率增长1.5%，低于一季度的2.1%；消费者支出、投资和出口增长被政府支出下降部分抵销。国内私人最终销售按年率增长3.9%，同期国内购买价格指数上涨5.7%。
重要性评级
评级：5/5（高）
07/30公布的二季度GDP初值直接对应US_GDP（美国国内生产总值指标），同时提供内需、价格与增长结构，属于当日高密度官方宏观资料。
关键事实
- 美东时间07/30 08:30（UTC+8 07/30 20:30），美国经济分析局发布二季度GDP初值。
- 二季度实际GDP按年率增长1.5%，一季度为2.1%。
- 消费者支出、投资和出口推动增长；政府支出下降形成部分抵销，进口增幅高于一季度。
- 国内私人最终销售按年率增长3.9%，一季度为1.7%。
- 名义GDP按年率增长7.9%。
- 国内购买价格指数上涨5.7%，一季度为3.6%；PCE价格指数上涨5.1%，核心PCE上涨3.4%。
- 二季度二次估计与公司利润数据将于美东时间08/26 08:30（UTC+8 08/26 20:30）发布。
作者观点与证据
发布稿为美国经济分析局的初值统计，增长放缓的分项解释基于支出法构成。企业库存、6月建筑等部分源数据仍为估算，后续估计可能修订本次结果。
与相关标的的关系
US_GDP直接对应这项增长统计。1.5%的实际增长、3.9%的私人最终销售和5.7%的国内购买价格指数共同提供增长与价格压力的官方观察口径。
时效性与限制（仅在有新增信息时）
数据发布于美东时间07/30 08:30（UTC+8 07/30 20:30）。作为二季度初值，部分基础资料尚不完整，08/26的二次估计将更新该读数。
后续跟踪
- 二次估计对增长、库存和投资分项的修订。
- 国内私人最终销售能否维持3.9%的年率。
- 国内购买价格指数与PCE价格指数的后续变化。
- 政府支出、进口和出口对增长的贡献。
英文原文
News Release
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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 a.m. EDT, Thursday, July 30, 2026
BEA 26—35
GDP (Advance Estimate), 2nd Quarter 2026
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (April, May, and June), according to the advance estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.
The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the second quarter were increases in consumer spending, investment, and exports that were partly offset by a decrease in government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. For more information, refer to the " Technical Notes " below.
Compared to the first quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter reflected a downturn in government spending and decelerations in investment and exports that were partly offset by an acceleration in consumer spending. Imports increased more in the second quarter than in the first quarter.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers , the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 3.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the first quarter.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 5.7 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.6 percent in the first quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 5.1 percent, compared with an increase of 4.6 percent, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 3.4 percent, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent.
Real GDP and Related Measures
[Percent change (SAAR) from 2026:Q1 to 2026:Q2]
Advance Estimate
Real GDP 1.5
Current-dollar GDP 7.9
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers 3.9
Gross domestic purchases price index 5.7
PCE price index 5.1
PCE price index, excluding food and energy 3.4
Annual Update of the National and Regional Economic Accounts
With improvements in the concurrent production of BEA statistics, the 2026 annual updates of national, industry, and regional data will begin on the same day for the first time: September 30, 2026. The annual update of the National Economic Accounts includes GDP, gross domestic income, GDP by industry, monthly personal income and outlays, and related statistics in the National Income and Product Accounts and the Industry Economic Accounts. The update of the Regional Economic Accounts includes GDP by state and by county, personal income by state and by county, and related statistics. For details, refer to " Information on 2026 Annual Updates to the National, Industry, State, and County Statistics ."
For definitions, statistical conventions, updates to GDP, and more information about national statistics, visit “ Additional Information .”
Next release: August 26, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EDT
GDP (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits, 2nd Quarter 2026
Technical Notes
Sources of change for real GDP
Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent (0.4 percent at a quarterly rate 1 ) in the second quarter, reflecting increases in consumer spending, investment, and exports that were partly offset by a decrease in government spending. Imports increased.
More information on the source data and BEA assumptions that underlie the second-quarter estimate is shown in the key source data and assumptions table.
- The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both goods and services.
- Within goods, the increase was led by other nondurable goods (mainly, prescription drugs), based on Census Bureau Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) data for all three months of the quarter; motor vehicles and parts (led by new light trucks), based primarily on Wards Intelligence unit sales data and IHS-Polk registrations data; and furnishings and durable household equipment (led by furniture), based on Census Bureau MRTS data.
- Within services, the leading contributors to household consumption expenditures were food services and accommodations, based on Census Bureau MRTS data, and financial services and insurance (led by portfolio management), based primarily on trade volume data. There was also an increase in final consumption expenditures of nonprofits, led by gross output for professional advocacy.
- The increase in investment primarily reflected increases in equipment and intellectual property products that were partly offset by decreases in private inventory investment and nonresidential structures.
- Within equipment, increases were widespread, led by industrial equipment, transportation equipment, and information processing equipment, based primarily on data for imports from the Census Bureau-BEA U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report and the Census Bureau Advance Economic Indicators Report for June.
- The increase in intellectual property products reflected increases in software (mainly, prepackaged software) and research and development, based primarily on a judgmental trend and Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics.
- The largest contributor to the decrease in private inventory investment was wholesale trade, based primarily on Census Bureau inventory book value data.
- The decrease in nonresidential structures was led by manufacturing structures, based on Census Bureau Value-Put-In-Place construction spending data for April and May and a BEA projection for June.
- Exports and imports primarily reflected Census Bureau-BEA U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services data as well as the Census Bureau Advance Economic Indicators Report for June.
- Within exports, the increase reflected an increase in goods (led by petroleum and related products) that was partly offset by a decrease in services (led by travel and other business services, mainly financial services).
- Within imports, the increase primarily reflected an increase in goods, led by capital goods, except automotive (mainly telecommunications equipment, semiconductors and related devices, and industrial equipment).
- Within government spending, the decrease was led by federal government spending, primarily reflecting nondefense consumption expenditures. The pattern of nondefense spending primarily reflected sales of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, based on data from the Department of Energy. Within the National Economic Accounts, sales are deducted from government consumption expenditures; therefore, an increase in sales results in a corresponding decrease in consumption expenditures. Because the oil sold by the government is reflected as an increase in other components of GDP, there is no direct effect on GDP.
Related Data Tables
For the estimates highlighted in this release, as well as historical time series for these estimates, see the following data tables in BEA’s Interactive Data Application .
Table 1.1.1. Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic Product
Table 1.5.2. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product, Expanded Detail
Table 1.4.1. Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic Product, Real Gross Domestic Purchases, and Real Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers
Table 1.6.7. Percent Change From Preceding Period in Prices for Gross Domestic Purchases
Note. With the next release of GDP, today’s data will be superseded, and the links above will reflect the latest data. The original data featured in this release can then be accessed in BEA’s Data Archive .
1 Percent changes in quarterly seasonally adjusted series are displayed at annual rates, unless otherwise specified. For more information, refer to the FAQ “ Why does BEA publish percent changes in quarterly series at annual rates? ”.
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Lisa Mataloni
301-278-9083
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Connie O’Connell
301-278-9003
Connie.OConnell@bea.gov
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Page last modified on 7/30/26
六月核心PCE同比升至3.3%
重要性5/5 高
最新官方PCE通胀、消费和收入数据直接对应US_PCE，发布接近日报日期。
中文摘要
核心结论
美国经济分析局公布的6月个人收入与支出数据显示，个人消费支出价格指数PCE（个人消费支出价格指数）同比上涨3.7%，核心PCE同比上涨3.3%；当月价格指数环比下降0.1%，核心PCE环比上涨0.1%。消费实际增速为0.4%，收入与可支配收入均环比增长0.2%。
重要性评级
评级：5/5（高）
这是07/30发布的官方月度通胀与消费数据，直接对应US_PCE（美国个人消费支出通胀指标），同时涵盖价格、消费、收入和储蓄。
关键事实
- 美东时间07/30 08:30（UTC+8 07/30 20:30），美国经济分析局发布6月数据。
- 个人收入增加549亿美元，环比增长0.2%；可支配个人收入增加483亿美元，环比增长0.2%。
- 名义个人消费支出增加652亿美元，环比增长0.3%；实际个人消费支出环比增长0.4%。
- PCE价格指数环比下降0.1%、同比上涨3.7%；剔除食品和能源后的核心PCE环比上涨0.1%、同比上涨3.3%。
- 服务支出增加582亿美元，商品支出增加70亿美元。
- 个人储蓄为6461亿美元，个人储蓄率为2.7%。
- 美国经济分析局以更新后的就业和政府福利资料修订了4月、5月估计；下一次发布定于美东时间08/26 08:30（UTC+8 08/26 20:30）。
作者观点与证据
发布稿为官方统计公报，未提出市场判断。通胀、消费和收入数据均为美国经济分析局估计值，4月和5月已修订，后续月度发布还会替代本次数据。
与相关标的的关系
US_PCE直接反映美国个人消费支出通胀口径。核心PCE同比3.3%与环比0.1%提供货币政策和利率研究的最新官方事实，实际消费环比0.4%补充内需强度信息。
时效性与限制（仅在有新增信息时）
数据发布于美东时间07/30 08:30（UTC+8 07/30 20:30），截至07/31仍属最新月度读数；其中4月和5月数字已修订，6月估计也将被后续发布更新。
后续跟踪
- 07月核心PCE环比及同比读数。
- 实际消费在服务与商品之间的变化。
- 个人储蓄率是否继续处于2.7%附近。
- 08/26发布的7月数据及对前值的修订。
英文原文
News Release
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Personal Income and Outlays, June 2026
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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 a.m. EDT, Thursday, July 30, 2026
BEA 26—36
Personal Income and Outlays, June 2026
Personal income increased $54.9 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in June, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Disposable personal income (DPI) —personal income less personal current taxes—increased $48.3 billion (0.2 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $65.2 billion (0.3 percent).
Personal outlays —the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $70.0 billion in June. Personal saving was $646.1 billion in June, and the personal saving rate —personal saving as a percentage of DPI—was 2.7 percent.
The increase in current-dollar personal income in June primarily reflected increases in compensation, personal income receipts on assets, and government social benefits that were partly offset by a decrease in farm proprietors’ income.
The $65.2 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in June reflected increases of $58.2 billion in spending on services and $7.0 billion in spending on goods.
Real PCE increased $68.0 billion ( 0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in June.
From the preceding month, the PCE price index for June decreased 0.1 percent . Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.
From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for June increased 3.7 percent . Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.3 percent from one year ago.
Personal Income and Related Measures
[Percent change from preceding month]
May June
Current-dollar personal income 0.7 0.2
Current-dollar DPI 0.7 0.2
Real DPI 0.2 0.3
Current-dollar PCE 0.9 0.3
Real PCE 0.4 0.4
PCE price index 0.5 -0.1
PCE price index excluding food and energy 0.3 0.1
Annual Update of the National and Regional Economic Accounts
With improvements in the concurrent production of BEA statistics, the 2026 annual updates of national, industry,and regional data will begin on the same day for the first time: September 30, 2026. The annual update of the National Economic Accounts includes GDP, gross domestic income, GDP by industry, monthly personal income and outlays, and related statistics in the National Income and Product Accounts and the Industry Economic Accounts. The update of the Regional Economic Accounts includes GDP by state and by county, personal income by state and by county, and related statistics. For details, refer to " Information on 2026 Annual Updates to the National, Industry, State, and County Statistics ."
For definitions, statistical conventions, updates to personal income and outlays, and more information about these statistics, visit “ Additional Information ."
Next release: August 26, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EDT
Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026
Technical Notes
Changes in personal income and outlays for June
The June increase of $54.9 billion in personal income primarily reflected increases in compensation, personal income receipts on assets, and government social benefits that were partly offset by a decrease in farm proprietors’ income.
- Within compensation, the increase was led by private wages and salaries based on Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES).
- The increase in personal income receipts on assets reflected increases in both dividend income and interest income.
- Within government social benefits, the leading contributors to the increase were Medicare, based on data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and the Budget of the U.S. Government, and social security benefits, based on data from the Social Security Administration.
- The decrease in farm proprietors’ income reflected the pattern of payments to farmers from the American Relief Act of 2025 .
Revisions to personal income
Estimates have been updated for April and May reflecting updated BLS CES data. Revisions to government social benefits were led by Medicaid benefits, reflecting updated data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services as well as new Monthly Treasury Statement data.
Related Data Tables
For the statistics highlighted in this release, as well as historical time series for these estimates, see the following data tables in BEA’s Interactive Data Application .
Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition
Table 2.8.1. Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real PCE by Major Type of Product
Table 2.8.5. PCE by Major Type of Product
Table 2.8.6. Real PCE by Major Type of Product
Table 2.8.7. Percent Change From Preceding Period in Prices for PCE by Major Type of Product
Table 2.8.11. Real PCE by Major Type of Product: Percent Change From Month One Year Ago
Note. With the next release of PIO, today’s data will be superseded, and the links above will reflect the latest data. The original data featured in this release can then be accessed in BEA’s Data Archive .
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美联储维持利率但现三票加息异议
重要性5/5 高
最新FOMC决定、利率区间和三票加息异议直接关联FED并影响跨资产利率定价。
中文摘要
核心结论
联邦公开市场委员会FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）于07/29以9票赞成、3票反对维持联邦基金利率目标区间在3.50%至3.75%。三名反对者主张加息25个基点，声明同时称通胀仍高于2%目标，并将部分行业价格上涨归因于供给冲击。
重要性评级
评级：5/5（高）
这是最新的官方货币政策决定，直接对应FED（美国联邦储备政策），投票分歧、利率区间与经济评估均对当日跨资产阅读有高优先级。
关键事实
- 美东时间07/29 14:00（UTC+8 07/30 02:00），美联储发布政策声明。
- FOMC以9比3维持联邦基金利率目标区间在3.50%至3.75%。
- 委员会继续维持银行体系充裕准备金。
- Beth M. Hammack、Neel Kashkari和Lorie K. Logan投反对票，主张本次加息25个基点。
- 声明称经济活动在较高不确定性下仍稳健，生产率增长和资本投资强劲，就业增长与劳动力供给保持同步，失业率变动不大。
- 声明称通胀仍高于2%目标，能源等行业的供给冲击推高部分价格；中东冲突增加不确定性。
作者观点与证据
这是一份FOMC官方声明，委员会将利率决定置于双重使命框架下。关于增长、就业、通胀和中东冲突的描述属于委员会的政策评估，未提供逐项经济数据或风险概率。
与相关标的的关系
FED直接对应美国利率政策。维持3.50%至3.75%的决定确定当前政策区间，三票支持加息的异议记录显示委员会内部存在更紧政策立场。
时效性与限制（仅在有新增信息时）
声明发布于美东时间07/29 14:00（UTC+8 07/30 02:00）。文件只披露本次决定与简要判断，未列出未来利率路径、点阵图更新或异议者的完整论证。
后续跟踪
- 后续通胀与就业数据是否改变委员会的评估。
- 官员对能源供给冲击与中东风险的公开表述。
- 下一次会议的投票结构与政策声明措辞。
- 充裕准备金政策的执行信息。
英文原文
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
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##
Press Release
July 29, 2026
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
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The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 – 3 vote:
The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.
Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.
Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.
Voting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.
For media inquiries, please email [email protected] or call 202-452-2955.
Implementation Note issued July 29, 2026
Last Update:
July 29, 2026
杠杆芯片基金复原门槛
重要性5/5 高
直接覆盖SOXL、SOXX的回撤和杠杆机制，并提供规模数据。
中文摘要
核心结论
Yahoo Finance以芯片回撤说明每日重置杠杆的路径依赖：SOXL（三倍日度半导体多头交易所交易基金）与SOXX（半导体交易所交易基金）的多周回报不会固定保持三倍关系，深度回撤后的复原幅度显著扩大。
重要性评级
评级：5/5（高）。文章直接解释SOXL与SOXX近期回撤、产品机制和杠杆基金规模，对持有或跟踪半导体杠杆产品的日报阅读价值高。
关键事实
- SOXX较06/22高点约下跌25%，SOXL同期下跌约63%。
- 要收复上述跌幅，SOXX约需上涨33%，SOXL约需上涨170%。
- SOXL目标是纽约证交所半导体指数单日回报的三倍，每个交易日重置敞口。
- SK海力士公布业绩后，韩国综合股价指数盘中一度下跌13%，收盘时跌幅缩至6%。
- Baird Strategas称，200只规模最大的杠杆交易所交易基金名义敞口超过4000亿美元，过去一个月减少约1000亿美元，仍接近历史高位。
作者观点与证据
作者将大幅回撤和复原难度归于每日重置后的复利路径，并以基金规则和价格幅度说明。关于存储股买盘及市场是否见底，引用交易员观察，缺少完整资金流和持仓数据。
与相关标的的关系
SOXL直接受每日重置与波动路径影响；SOXX提供未杠杆半导体基准。SKHY（SK海力士）及韩国指数仅用于呈现本轮芯片波动背景。
时效性与限制（仅在有新增信息时）
发布于美东时间 07/29 06:00（UTC+8 07/29 18:00）。回撤幅度截至文章时点，后续价格变动会改变所需复原幅度。
后续跟踪
- SOXX与SOXL的日度波动率和累计回报差。
- 杠杆交易所交易基金名义敞口与赎回变化。
- 存储芯片公司业绩后的现货与资金流数据。
- 半导体指数能否降低高波动区间。
英文原文
The chip crash is exposing the brutal cost of leverage: Chart of the Day
The chip crash is exposing the brutal cost of leverage: Chart of the Day
Jared Blikre
Wed, July 29, 2026 at 9:43 PM GMT+9 2 min read
- SOXX
+8.50%
- SOXL
+24.71%
- SKHY
+17.52%
- ^KS11
+17.91%
The semiconductor sell-off has punished investors across the board. Leverage has made the damage far harder to recover from.
The iShares Semiconductor ETF ( SOXX ) has fallen roughly 25% from its June 22 peak while the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares ( SOXL ), a leveraged ETF, has plunged nearly two-thirds over the same stretch.
The latest slide is part of a chip-stock crash that the rest of the market has largely absorbed .
The leverage unwind intensified overnight after SK Hynix ( SKHY ) reported earnings , sending South Korea's Kospi ( ^KS11 ) down as much as 13% before dip buyers cut the loss to 6%. Goldman Sachs traders still saw buyers stepping into memory stocks , suggesting the rout remains disorderly rather than capitulatory, even as the sell-off triggered a record wave of trading halts .
Yahoo Finance AlphaSpace It would be easy to assume that SOXL should be down three times the SOXX loss of 25%, or 75%. SOXL did not malfunction. The fund is designed to deliver three times the daily return of the NYSE Semiconductor Index.
Daily is the key word.
The fund resets its exposure after every session. The next day's gain or loss then compounds from a new starting value, so its return over several weeks will not necessarily equal three times the semiconductor index's return over that period.
That structure can work spectacularly when chip stocks keep moving steadily higher. Volatile sell-offs or even just a choppy, sideways market expose the pitfalls of leverage that resets daily.
The loss also makes the climb back much steeper. SOXX needs a gain of roughly 33% to erase the 25% decline. SOXL would need to rally around 170% to recover from a 63% plunge.
Wall Street increasingly wraps leverage around some of the market's most volatile trades. It was already rolling out leveraged products tied to SpaceX only days after its IPO.
And investors still have plenty riding on these products.
The 200 largest leveraged ETFs represent more than $400 billion in notional value , reflecting the total market exposure after leverage is applied, according to Baird Strategas. That figure has dropped by roughly $100 billion over the past month but remains close to record territory.
Baird Strategas, Yahoo Finance The decline may look enormous in dollars. But measured against the leveraged ETF boom that preceded it, Baird Strategas' chief ETF strategist Todd Sohn described the retreat more bluntly.
"Barely a scratch here thus far."
Jared Blikre is the global markets and data editor for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @SPYJared or email him at jaredblikre@yahooinc.com.
Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices
Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance
微软云与智能业务加速
重要性5/5 高
微软官方财报在发布后两日内提供云业务、人工智能商业化、合同积压与利润调整的一手高密度信息，直接关联MSFT。
中文摘要
核心结论
微软07/29（未给出具体时刻）公布截至06/30的2026财年第四季度业绩，云计算与人工智能相关业务推动收入和利润增长；Azure（微软云计算平台）及其他云服务收入同比增长43%。季度每股收益亦受Anthropic投资收益等一次性项目提振，经营增速与投资损益需分开阅读。
重要性评级
评级：5/5（高）
这是微软官方财报发布，提供云需求、企业人工智能产品商业化和利润结构的一手数据，直接关联MSFT（微软股票代码）及大型云计算产业链研究。
关键事实
- 季度营收900亿美元，同比增长18%；营业利润406亿美元，同比增长18%。
- 按GAAP（美国通用会计准则）计算，净利润358亿美元、同比增长31%，稀释后每股收益4.81美元、同比增长32%。
- 调整OpenAI投资影响后的非GAAP净利润为353亿美元、同比增长22%；调整后每股收益4.74美元、同比增长23%。
- Microsoft Cloud（微软云）收入593亿美元，同比增长27%；商业剩余履约义务6780亿美元，同比增长84%。
- Intelligent Cloud（智能云）收入393亿美元，同比增长32%；Azure及其他云服务收入增长43%。
- Azure全年收入首次超过1000亿美元；Microsoft 365 Copilot（微软办公智能助手）付费席位超过3000万。
- 季度业绩较4月指引多出每股0.27美元的利好，包含Anthropic投资32亿美元收益和低于预期的自愿退休计划费用，部分被Xbox遣散及减值费用抵消。
- More Personal Computing（更多个人计算）收入129亿美元，同比下降4%；Windows原始设备制造商及设备收入下降7%，Xbox内容和服务收入下降10%。
作者观点与证据
文章是微软投资者关系部门的正式业绩公告，主要以财务报表和经营指标支持“云与人工智能业务增长强劲”的表述。管理层将Azure破千亿美元收入和Copilot付费席位增长作为产品商业化证据；非GAAP口径排除了OpenAI投资影响，且季度每股收益还受Anthropic投资收益等离散项目影响，不能直接视为全部来自主营经营改善。
与相关标的的关系
MSFT直接受益于Azure、Microsoft Cloud和Copilot商业化指标。对云计算、人工智能基础设施和企业软件相关标的，这份公告提供了客户需求、积压合同和云服务增速的官方参考，但未披露单一供应商或单一产品的完整利润贡献。
时效性与限制（仅在有新增信息时）
公告发布于07/29（未给出具体时刻），距07/31检索日较近。文本为公司一手披露，数据权威性较高；其中前瞻性表述及管理层对客户价值的描述仍有执行不确定性。
后续跟踪
- Azure收入增速、可用产能与商业剩余履约义务的转化节奏。
- Copilot付费席位、使用量和企业客户扩展情况。
- 云业务销售结构变化对毛利率的影响。
- OpenAI、Anthropic等投资公允价值变动对GAAP与非GAAP利润差异的影响。
英文原文
FY26 Q4 - Press Releases - Investor Relations - Microsoft
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Press Release & Webcast
Earnings Release FY26 Q4
Microsoft Cloud and AI
Strength Fuels Fourth Quarter Results
REDMOND, Wash. — July 29, 2026 — Microsoft Corp. today announced the following results for the
quarter ended June 30, 2026, as compared to the corresponding period of last
fiscal year:
·
Revenue was $90.0 billion and increased 18% (up 17% in constant
currency)
·
Operating income was $40.6 billion and increased 18%
·
Net income was $35.8 billion and increased 31% on a GAAP basis,
and was $35.3 billion and increased 22% on a non-GAAP basis
·
Diluted earnings per share was $4.81 and increased 32% on a
GAAP basis, and was $4.74 and increased 23% on a non-GAAP basis
·
Non-GAAP results exclude the impact from investments in OpenAI,
explained in the Non-GAAP Definition section below
Several discrete items
impacted our financial results in the quarter when compared to our
forward-looking guidance provided on April 29, 2026, resulting in a benefit of
$0.27 on diluted earnings per share. These include a $3.2 billion gain from our
investment in Anthropic and lower-than-expected expenses related to the
Voluntary Retirement Program which were partially offset by severance expense and
impairment charges in XBOX. When adjusting for these items, we exceeded
expectations across revenue, operating income, and diluted earnings per share.
“We are advancing the
frontier on the cost-to-outcome curve, ensuring every customer can turn tokens
into business results," said Satya Nadella, chairman and chief executive
officer of Microsoft. “This year, Azure revenue surpassed $100 billion for the
first time, and Microsoft 365 Copilot reached over 30 million paid seats,
reflecting the confidence customers are placing in us to power their AI
transformation.”
“We delivered a
strong quarter to close out the fiscal year, highlighted by Microsoft Cloud
revenue of $59.3 billion, up 27% year-over-year,” said Amy Hood, executive vice
president and chief financial officer of Microsoft.
The following table adjusts for the impact from investments in
OpenAI and reconciles our financial results reported in accordance with
generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) to non-GAAP financial results.
Additional information regarding our non-GAAP
definition is provided below. All growth
comparisons relate to the corresponding period in the last fiscal year.
Three Months Ended June 30,
2026
2025
Percentage Change Y/Y
Percentage Change Y/Y
($ in millions, except per share amounts)
As
Reported
(GAAP)
Impact from OpenAI*
As
Adjusted
(non-GAAP)
As
Reported
(GAAP)
Impact from OpenAI*
As
Adjusted
(non-GAAP)
GAAP
Constant Currency
Net Impact from OpenAI*
Non-GAAP
Non-GAAP Constant Currency
Net
Income
$35,766
$(480)
$35,286
$27,233
$1,575
$28,808
31%
31%
$(2,055)
22%
22%
Diluted
Earnings
per Share
$4.81
$(0.07)
$4.74
$3.65
$0.21
$3.86
32%
32%
$(0.28)
23%
23%
*Impact from OpenAI adjusts
for the impact from investments in OpenAI
Business Highlights
Microsoft
Cloud revenue was $59.3 billion and increased 27%, and commercial remaining
performance obligation increased 84% to $678 billion.
Revenue
in Productivity and Business Processes was $37.8 billion and increased
14%, with the following business highlights:
·
Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud revenue increased 16% when
adjusted for the prior year comparable that benefited from 2 points of
in-period revenue recognition. On a reported basis, Microsoft 365 Commercial
cloud revenue increased 14%.
·
Microsoft 365 Consumer cloud revenue increased 24% (up 22% in
constant currency)
·
LinkedIn revenue increased 12% (up 10% in constant currency)
·
Dynamics 365 revenue increased 13% (up 12% in constant currency)
Revenue
in Intelligent Cloud was $39.3 billion and increased 32% (up 31% in constant
currency), with the following business highlights:
·
Azure and other cloud services revenue increased 43%
Revenue
in More Personal Computing was $12.9 billion and decreased 4% (down 5% in
constant currency), with the following business highlights:
·
Windows OEM and Devices revenue decreased 7%
·
XBOX content and services revenue decreased 10%
·
Search advertising revenue excluding traffic acquisition costs
increased 10% (up 9% in constant currency)
Microsoft
returned $10.2 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and share
repurchases in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026.
Fiscal Year 2026 Results
Microsoft
Corp. today announced the following results for the fiscal year ended June 30,
2026, as compared to the corresponding period of last fiscal year:
·
Revenue was $331.8 billion and increased 18% (up 16% in constant
currency)
·
Operating income was $155.2 billion and increased 21% (up 19% in
constant currency)
·
Net income was $133.7 billion and increased 31% on a GAAP basis,
and increased 22% (up 20% in constant currency) on a non-GAAP basis
·
Diluted earnings per share was $17.95 and increased 32% on a
GAAP basis, and increased 22% (up 21% in constant currency) on a non-GAAP basis
·
Non-GAAP results exclude the impact from investments in OpenAI,
explained in the Non-GAAP Definition section below
The following table adjusts for the impact from investments in
OpenAI and reconciles our financial results reported in accordance with GAAP to
non-GAAP financial results. Additional information regarding our non-GAAP definition is
provided below. All growth comparisons relate to the corresponding period in
the last fiscal year.
Twelve Months Ended June 30,
2026
2025
Percentage Change Y/Y
Percentage Change Y/Y
($ in millions, except per share amounts)
As
Reported
(GAAP)
Impact from OpenAI*
As
Adjusted
(non-GAAP)
As
Reported
(GAAP)
Impact from OpenAI*
As
Adjusted
(non-GAAP)
GAAP
Constant Currency
Net Impact from OpenAI*
Non-GAAP
Non-GAAP Constant Currency
Net
Income
$133,749
$(4,963)
$128,786
$101,832
$3,620
$105,452
31%
30%
$(8,583)
22%
20%
Diluted
Earnings
per Share
$17.95
$(0.67)
$17.28
$13.64
$0.49
$14.13
32%
30%
$(1.16)
22%
21%
*Impact from OpenAI adjusts
for the impact from investments in OpenAI
Business Outlook
Microsoft will provide
forward-looking guidance in connection with this quarterly earnings
announcement on its earnings conference call and webcast.
Quarterly Highlights,
Product Releases, and Customer Stories
Every quarter Microsoft
delivers hundreds of products, services, and enhancements. These releases are
driven by years of significant research and development investments, to empower
customers with greater productivity, security, and differentiated value.
This momentum is reflected in
stories that showcase how our technology is shaping
industries and driving customer success . We share
innovation updates on our product blogs across Azure , Microsoft
365 , and more on our Official Microsoft blog .
Webcast Details
Satya
Nadella, chairman and chief executive officer, Amy Hood, executive vice
president and chief financial officer, Alice Jolla, chief accounting officer,
Brian DeFoe, deputy general counsel and corporate secretary, and Jonathan
Neilson, vice president of investor relations, will host a conference call and
webcast at 2:30 p.m. Pacific time (5:30 p.m. Eastern time) today to discuss
details of the company’s performance for the quarter and certain
forward-looking information. The session may be accessed at http://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor . Participants can also dial into the conference call at (877)
407-0666 or +1 (201) 689-8023 for international, no password required. The
webcast will be available for replay through the close of business on July 29,
2027.
Non-GAAP Definition
Impact from investments
in OpenAI. In fiscal year 2026, net
income and diluted earnings per share were impacted by net gains from
investments in OpenAI, which resulted in an increase in net income and diluted
earnings per share of $480 million and $0.07, respectively, in the fourth
quarter, and $4,963 million and $0.67, respectively, for the full fiscal year.
In fiscal year 2025, net income and diluted earnings per share were impacted by
net losses from investments in OpenAI, which resulted in a decrease in net
income and diluted earnings per share of $1,575 million and $0.21, respectively,
in the fourth quarter, and $3,620 million and $0.49, respectively, for the full
fiscal year.
Microsoft has provided
non-GAAP financial measures related to the impact from investments in OpenAI to
aid investors in better understanding our performance. Microsoft believes these
non-GAAP measures assist investors by providing additional insight into its
operational performance and help clarify trends affecting its business. For
comparability of reporting, management considers non-GAAP measures in
conjunction with GAAP financial results in evaluating business performance. The
non-GAAP financial measures presented in this release should not be considered
as a substitute for, or superior to, the measures of financial performance
prepared in accordance with GAAP.
Constant Currency
Microsoft
presents constant currency information to provide a framework for assessing how
our underlying businesses performed excluding the effect of foreign currency
rate fluctuations. To present this information, current and comparative prior
period results for entities reporting in currencies other than United States
dollars are converted into United States dollars using the average exchange
rates from the comparative period rather than the actual exchange rates in
effect during the respective periods. All growth comparisons relate to the
corresponding period in the last fiscal year. Microsoft has provided this
non-GAAP financial information to aid investors in better understanding our
performance. The non-GAAP financial measures presented in this release should
not be considered as a substitute for, or superior to, the measures of
financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP.
Financial Performance
Constant Currency Reconciliation
Three
Months Ended June 30,
($ in millions, except
per share amounts)
2026
2025
Percentage Change Y/Y
Percentage Change Y/Y
As Reported
(GAAP)
As Adjusted
(non-GAAP)
As Reported
(GAAP)
As Adjusted
(non-GAAP)
GAAP
Non-
GAAP
Constant Currency Impact
Constant Currency
Non-GAAP Constant
Currency
Revenue
$90,007
-
$76,441
-
18%
-
$391
17%
-
Operating
Income
$40,603
-
$34,323
-
18%
-
$269
18%
-
Net Income
$35,766
$35,286
$27,233
$28,808
31%
22%
$40
31%
22%
Diluted
Earnings
per Share
$4.81
$4.74
$3.65
$3.86
32%
23%
$0.01
32%
23%
Twelve
Months Ended June 30,
($ in millions, except
per share amounts)
2026
2025
Percentage Change Y/Y
Percentage Change Y/Y
As Reported
(GAAP)
As Adjusted
(non-GAAP)
As Reported
(GAAP)
As Adjusted
(non-GAAP)
GAAP
Non-
GAAP
Constant Currency Impact
Constant Currency
Non-GAAP Constant
Currency
Revenue
$331,839
-
$281,724
-
18%
-
$4,445
16%
-
Operating
Income
$155,237
-
$128,528
-
21%
-
$2,896
19%
-
Net Income
$133,749
$128,786
$101,832
$105,452
31%
22%
$1,772
30%
20%
Diluted
Earnings
per Share
$17.95
$17.28
$13.64
$14.13
32%
22%
$0.24
30%
21%
Segment Revenue Constant Currency Reconciliation
Three
Months Ended June 30,
($ in millions)
2026
2025
Percentage Change Y/Y
Constant Currency Impact
Percentage Change Y/Y
As Reported
(GAAP)
As Reported
(GAAP)
GAAP
Constant Currency
Productivity and Business Processes
$37,847
$33,112
14%
$244
14%
Intelligent Cloud
$39,306
$29,878
32%
$80
31%
More Personal Computing
$12,854
$13,451
(4)%
$67
(5)%
Selected
Product and Service Information Constant Currency Reconciliation
Three Months Ended June 30, 2026
Percentage Change Y/Y (GAAP)
Constant Currency Impact
Percentage Change Y/Y Constant Currency
Microsoft Cloud revenue
27%
0%
27%
Commercial remaining performance obligation
84%
0%
84%
Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud revenue
14%
0%
14%
Microsoft 365 Consumer cloud revenue
24%
(2)%
22%
LinkedIn revenue
12%
(2)%
10%
Dynamics 365 revenue
13%
(1)%
12%
Azure and other cloud services revenue
43%
0%
43%
Windows OEM and Devices revenue
(7)%
0%
(7)%
XBOX content and services revenue
(10)%
0%
(10)%
Search advertising revenue excluding traffic acquisition costs
10%
(1)%
9%
About
Microsoft
Microsoft
(Nasdaq “MSFT” @microsoft) creates platforms and tools powered by AI to deliver
innovative solutions that meet the evolving needs of our customers. The
technology company is committed to making AI available broadly and doing so
responsibly, with a mission to empower every person and every organization on
the planet to achieve more.
Forward-Looking
Statements
Statements
in this release that are “forward-looking statements” are based on current
expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties.
Actual results could differ materially because of factors such as:
·
intense competition in all of our markets that could adversely
affect our results of operations;
·
substantial investments in cloud and AI strategy that depend on
customer demand, technological developments, competitive dynamics, and
regulatory condition;
·
development, delivery, and maintenance of competitive
cloud-based and AI products and services that achieve broad customer adoption
and sustainable revenue growth;
·
significant investments in products and services that may not
achieve expected returns;
·
acquisitions, joint ventures, and strategic alliances that could
have an adverse effect on our business;
·
cyberattacks and security vulnerabilities that could lead to
reduced revenue, increased costs, liability claims, or harm to our reputation
or competitive position;
·
disclosure and misuse of personal data that could cause
liability and harm to our reputation;
·
the possibility that we may not be able to protect information
in our products and services from use by others;
·
abuse of our platforms that may harm our reputation or user
engagement;
·
products and services, how they are used by customers, and how
third-party products and services interact with them, presenting security,
privacy, and execution risks;
·
issues about the development, deployment, and use of AI that may
result in reputational or competitive harm, or liability;
·
inability to develop and expand adequate infrastructure;
·
supply or other quality problems;
·
excessive outages, disruptions, or capacity constraints of our
services if we fail to maintain an adequate operations infrastructure or secure
resources necessary to support it;
·
potential consequences of new, existing, and evolving legal and
regulatory requirements;
·
claims against us that could result in adverse outcomes in legal
disputes;
·
uncertainties relating to our business with government
customers;
·
additional tax liabilities;
·
an inability to protect and utilize our intellectual property
may harm our business and operating results;
·
claims that Microsoft has infringed the intellectual property
rights of others;
·
damage to our reputation or our brands that may harm our
business and results of operations;
·
adverse economic or market conditions that could harm our
business;
·
catastrophic events or geopolitical conditions that could
disrupt our business;
·
exposure to increased economic and operational uncertainties
from operating a global business, including the effects of foreign currency
exchange; and
·
the dependence of our business on our ability to attract and
retain talented employees.
For
more information about risks and uncertainties associated with Microsoft’s
business, please refer to the “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of
Financial Condition and Results of Operations” and “Risk Factors” sections of
Microsoft’s SEC filings, including, but not limited to, its annual report on
Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, copies of which may be obtained
by contacting Microsoft’s Investor Relations department at (800) 285-7772 or at
Microsoft’s Investor Relations website at http://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor .
All
information in this release is as of June 30, 2026. The company undertakes no
duty to update any forward-looking statement to conform the statement to actual
results or changes in the company’s expectations.
For
more information, press only:
Microsoft
Media Relations, WE Communications for Microsoft, (425) 638-7777,
rrt@we-worldwide.com
For
more information, financial analysts and investors only:
Jonathan
Neilson, Vice President, Investor Relations, (425) 706-4400
Note
to editors: For more information, news and perspectives from Microsoft, please
visit the Microsoft News Center at http://www.microsoft.com/news . Web links, telephone numbers, and titles were correct at time
of publication, but may since have changed. Shareholder and financial
information, as well as today’s 2:30 p.m. Pacific time conference call with
investors and analysts, is available at http://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor .
MICROSOFT CORPORATION
INCOME STATEMENTS
(In millions, except per share amounts)
(Unaudited)
Three Months Ended
June 30,
Twelve Months Ended
June 30,
2026
2025
2026
2025
Revenue:
Product
$17,234
$17,136
$64,696
$63,946
Service
and other
72,773
59,305
267,143
217,778
Total
revenue
90,007
76,441
331,839
281,724
Cost
of revenue:
Product
2,938
3,314
12,098
13,501
Service
and other
26,587
20,700
94,276
74,330
Total
cost of revenue
29,525
24,014
106,374
87,831
Gross
margin
60,482
52,427
225,465
193,893
Research
and development
9,997
8,829
35,562
32,488
Sales
and marketing
7,595
7,285
26,710
25,654
General
and administrative
2,287
1,990
7,956
7,223
Operating
income
40,603
34,323
155,237
128,528
Other
income (expense), net
3,444
(1,707)
10,697
(4,901)
Income
before income taxes
44,047
32,616
165,934
123,627
Provision
for income taxes
8,281
5,383
32,185
21,795
Net
income
$35,766
$27,233
$133,749
$101,832
Earnings
per share:
Basic
$4.82
$3.66
$18.00
$13.70
Diluted
$4.81
$3.65
$17.95
$13.64
Weighted
average shares outstanding:
Basic
7,427
7,432
7,429
7,433
Diluted
7,443
7,461
7,453
7,465
COMPREHENSIVE INCOME
STATEMENTS
(In millions) (Unaudited)
Three Months Ended
June 30,
Twelve Months Ended
June 30,
2026
2025
2026
2025
Net
income
$35,766
$27,233
$133,749
$101,832
Other
comprehensive income (loss), net of tax:
Net
change related to derivatives
14
(9)
8
(5)
Net
change related to investments
(72)
444
215
1,574
Translation
adjustments and other
2
1,051
(160)
674
Other
comprehensive income (loss)
(56)
1,486
63
2,243
Comprehensive
income
$35,710
$28,719
$133,812
$104,075
BALANCE SHEETS
(In millions) (Unaudited)
June 30,
2026
June 30,
2025
Assets
Current
assets:
Cash
and cash equivalents
$20,935
$30,242
Short-term
investments
55,908
64,323
Total
cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments
76,843
94,565
Accounts
receivable, net of allowance for doubtful accounts of $1,040 and $944
80,876
69,905
Inventories
1,397
938
Other
current assets
48,594
25,723
Total
current assets
207,710
191,131
Property
and equipment, net of accumulated depreciation of $118,691 and $93,653
313,076
204,966
Operating
lease right-of-use assets
24,177
24,823
Equity
and other investments
36,348
15,405
Goodwill
119,651
119,509
Intangible
assets, net
18,609
22,604
Other
long-term assets
38,805
40,565
Total
assets
$758,376
$619,003
Liabilities
and stockholders' equity
Current
liabilities:
Accounts payable
$42,416
$27,724
Current
portion of long-term debt
9,227
2,999
Accrued
compensation
14,945
13,709
Short-term
income taxes
2,534
7,211
Short-term
unearned revenue
72,965
64,555
Other
current liabilities
26,738
25,020
Total
current liabilities
168,825
141,218
Long-term
debt
31,067
40,152
Long-term
income taxes
28,647
25,986
Long-term
unearned revenue
2,747
2,710
Deferred
income taxes
3,054
2,835
Operating
lease liabilities
16,532
17,437
Other
long-term liabilities
65,117
45,186
Total
liabilities
315,989
275,524
Commitments
and contingencies
Stockholders'
equity:
Common
stock and paid-in capital - shares authorized 24,000; outstanding 7,427
and 7,434
117,406
109,095
Retained
earnings
328,265
237,731
Accumulated
other comprehensive loss
(3,284)
(3,347)
Total
stockholders' equity
442,387
343,479
Total
liabilities and stockholders' equity
$758,376
$619,003
CASH
FLOWS STATEMENTS
(In millions) (Unaudited)
Three Months Ended
June 30,
Twelve Months Ended
June 30,
2026
2025
2026
2025
Operations
Net
income
$35,766
$27,233
$133,749
$101,832
Adjustments
to reconcile net income to net cash from operations:
Depreciation,
amortization, and other
11,022
9,317
38,534
29,433
Stock-based
compensation expense
3,122
3,073
12,405
11,974
Net
recognized losses (gains) on investments and derivatives
(3,743)
1,942
(11,047)
5,329
Deferred
income taxes
4,650
(2,221)
14,189
(7,056)
Changes
in operating assets and liabilities:
Accounts
receivable
(21,084)
(16,179)
(12,737)
(10,581)
Inventories
(178)
(81)
(461)
309
Other
current assets
(2,842)
(3,686)
(2,627)
(3,044)
Other
long-term assets
(1,350)
418
(3,964)
(2,950)
Accounts
payable
2,365
(652)
5,268
569
Unearned
revenue
22,428
18,361
9,361
5,438
Income
taxes
(307)
1,043
(1,875)
(38)
Other
current liabilities
7,013
5,346
6,847
5,922
Other
long-term liabilities
(1,421)
(1,267)
(4,707)
(975)
Net
cash from operations
55,441
42,647
182,935
136,162
Financing
Repayments
of debt, maturities of 90 days or less
0
0
0
(5,746)
Repayments
of debt
0
0
(3,000)
(3,216)
Common
stock issued
520
548
2,009
2,056
Common
stock repurchased
(4,579)
(4,546)
(22,271)
(18,420)
Common
stock cash dividends paid
(6,758)
(6,169)
(26,445)
(24,082)
Other,
net
(962)
(677)
(2,839)
(2,291)
Net
cash used in financing
(11,779)
(10,844)
(52,546)
(51,699)
Investing
Additions
to property and equipment
(35,802)
(17,079)
(115,948)
(64,551)
Acquisition
of companies, net of cash acquired and divestitures, and purchases of
intangible and other assets
(452)
(1,743)
(1,743)
(5,978)
Purchases
of investments
(18,829)
(21,631)
(58,351)
(29,775)
Maturities
of investments
4,181
4,618
34,605
16,079
Sales
of investments
6,487
2,621
21,798
9,309
Other,
net
(10,416)
2,642
(19,861)
2,317
Net
cash used in investing
(54,831)
(30,572)
(139,500)
(72,599)
Effect
of foreign exchange rates on cash and cash equivalents
(1)
183
(196)
63
Net
change in cash and cash equivalents
(11,170)
1,414
(9,307)
11,927
Cash
and cash equivalents, beginning of period
32,105
28,828
30,242
18,315
Cash
and cash equivalents, end of period
$20,935
$30,242
$20,935
$30,242
We
have recast certain prior period amounts to conform to the current period
presentation.
SEGMENT
RESULTS
(In millions) (Unaudited)
Three Months Ended
June 30,
Twelve Months Ended
June 30,
2026
2025
2026
2025
Productivity and Business Processes
Revenue
$37,847
$33,112
$139,996
$120,810
Cost of revenue
6,989
6,042
25,017
22,422
Operating expenses
8,958
8,077
31,100
28,615
Operating income
$21,900
$18,993
$83,879
$69,773
Intelligent Cloud
Revenue
$39,306
$29,878
$137,791
$106,265
Cost of revenue
16,876
11,845
57,876
40,171
Operating expenses
6,475
5,893
22,943
21,505
Operating income
$15,955
$12,140
$56,972
$44,589
More Personal Computing
Revenue
$12,854
$13,451
$54,052
$54,649
Cost of revenue
5,660
6,127
23,481
25,238
Operating expenses
4,446
4,134
16,185
15,245
Operating income
$2,748
$3,190
$14,386
$14,166
Total
Revenue
$90,007
$76,441
$331,839
$281,724
Cost of revenue
29,525
24,014
106,374
87,831
Operating expenses
19,879
18,104
70,228
65,365
Operating income
$40,603
$34,323
$155,237
$128,528
IMPORTANT NOTICE TO USERS
(summary only,
click here
for full text of notice); All information is unaudited unless otherwise noted or
accompanied by an audit opinion and
is subject to the more comprehensive information contained in our SEC reports and filings. We do not
endorse third-party
information. All information speaks as of the last fiscal quarter or year for which we have filed a Form
10-K or 10-Q, or
for historical information the date or period expressly indicated in or with such information. We
undertake no duty to update
the information. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties described in
our
Forms 10-Q and 10-K.
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微软上调云增长与投入预期
重要性5/5 高
官方电话会在财报发布后提供Azure下一季度指引、供给约束、资本开支、利润率和Copilot采用的增量一手信息，直接关联MSFT。
中文摘要
核心结论
微软在07/29（未给出具体时刻）的2026财年第四季度电话会上表示，Azure需求仍超过可用产能，并预计2027财年第一季度按固定汇率计算的Azure收入增长约45%。公司以持续扩张的云需求、Copilot商业化和数据中心投入支撑增长预期，同时确认高资本开支和人工智能基础设施扩张仍会压低利润率。
重要性评级
评级：5/5（高）
电话会补充了正式财报未完全展开的季度指引、产能约束、资本开支、客户采用和管理层解释，直接关联MSFT，并为云计算与人工智能基础设施需求提供一手增量信息。
关键事实
- 微软2026财年营收超过3310亿美元，同比增长18%；营业利润超过1550亿美元，同比增长21%。第四财季营收900亿美元，同比增长18%；剔除OpenAI投资影响后的每股收益4.74美元，同比增长23%。
- Azure及其他云服务第四财季收入增长43%；管理层称收入高于预期的部分原因是中央处理器和图形处理器集群效率提升、新产能更早交付并在当季迅速变现。
- 微软预计2027财年第一季度Intelligent Cloud（智能云）收入409.5亿至412.5亿美元，同比增长33%至34%；Azure按固定汇率计算增长约45%。公司预计第一财季总营收898.5亿至909.5亿美元，同比增长16%至17%。
- 管理层称客户需求持续超过可用供给，即使第四财季表现强劲，上半年Azure增速仍预计继续加快；季度增速会受产能投放时间和合同结构影响。
- 第四财季资本开支410亿美元，约三分之二投向使用期限较短的资产，主要是中央处理器和图形处理器；第一财季资本开支预计超过500亿美元。
- 公司将数据中心和办公楼预计使用年限由15年延长至25年，并称这一会计估计更新主要改变折旧确认时点，对2027财年营业利润只有很小利好；更多数据中心租赁将由融资租赁转为经营租赁，2026日历年资本开支预期相应调整为约1750亿美元。
- Microsoft 365 Copilot付费席位超过3000万；客户从购买许可到高使用率所需时间由数月降至数日，超过5万席位的客户数同比增长逾7倍。公司称新推出两个月的E7套件已获数百家企业购买数百万席位。
- 公司预计2027财年收入和营业利润继续实现两位数增长，经营费用增速处于中高个位数，全年经营利润率同比下降不足1个百分点；Windows原始设备制造商及设备收入预计因个人电脑需求、零部件价格和库存因素在全年下降高个位数。
作者观点与证据
这是微软管理层在官方业绩电话会上的陈述，立场偏向说明人工智能投资可由需求、效率和产品商业化消化。Azure增长指引、收入区间、资本开支和合同义务为可核对的管理层披露；Copilot使用强度、客户价值和长期市场空间属于公司运营指标与前瞻判断，尚未提供独立客户收益或产品级利润率验证。
与相关标的的关系
MSFT直接关联：Azure约45%的下一季度固定汇率增长预期、超过500亿美元的季度资本开支和Copilot商业化进展共同构成电话会的核心信息。对人工智能服务器、芯片、数据中心和企业软件相关标的，需求超过供给及微软扩大基础设施投入是行业需求线索，但电话会未量化各外部供应商的订单或收入份额。
时效性与限制（仅在有新增信息时）
电话会发生于07/29（未给出具体时刻），距07/31检索日较近。指引基于管理层当时对汇率、需求和产能的假设，实际增长可能随交付节奏、合同结构、个人电脑需求和成本变化而调整。
后续跟踪
- Azure实际增速与约45%的固定汇率指引之间的差异，以及产能投放进度。
- 第一财季超过500亿美元资本开支的构成、融资租赁与经营租赁分类变化。
- Copilot付费席位、使用计费收入和企业客户部署扩张。
- 云业务毛利率、全年经营利润率及Windows相关业务的下行幅度。
英文原文
Microsoft Fiscal Year 2026 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call
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Microsoft Fiscal Year 2026 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Satya Nadella, Chairman and CEO and Amy Hood, EVP & CFO
Transcript
Microsoft FY26 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call
Jonathan Neilson, Satya Nadella, Amy Hood
Wednesday July 29, 2026
JONATHAN NEILSON:
Good afternoon and thank you for joining us today. On the call with me are Satya Nadella, chairman and chief executive officer, Amy Hood, chief financial officer, Alice Jolla, chief accounting officer, and Brian DeFoe, deputy general counsel and corporate secretary.
On the Microsoft Investor Relations website, you can find our earnings press release and financial summary slide deck, which is intended to supplement our prepared remarks during today’s call and provides the reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. More detailed outlook slides will be available on the Microsoft Investor Relations website when we provide outlook commentary on today’s call.
On this call we will discuss certain non-GAAP items. The non-GAAP financial measures provided should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to the measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. They are included as additional clarifying items to aid investors in further understanding the company's fourth quarter performance in addition to the impact these items and events have on the financial results.
All growth comparisons we make on the call today relate to the corresponding period of last year unless otherwise noted. We will also provide growth rates in constant currency, when available, as a framework for assessing how our underlying businesses performed, excluding the effect of foreign currency rate fluctuations. Where growth rates are the same in constant currency, we will refer to the growth rate only.
We will post our prepared remarks to our website immediately following the call until the complete transcript is available. Today's call is being webcast live and recorded. If you ask a question, it will be included in our live transmission, in the transcript, and in any future use of the recording. You can replay the call and view the transcript on the Microsoft Investor Relations website.
During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements which are predictions, projections, or other statements about future events. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could materially differ because of factors discussed in today's earnings press release, in the comments made during this conference call, and in the risk factor section of our Form 10-K, Forms 10-Q, and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement.
And with that, I’ll turn the call over to Satya.
SATYA NADELLA:
Thank you very much, Jonathan.
It was a very strong close to what was a record fiscal year for us.
All up, our annual revenue surpassed $331 billion, up 18%.
Microsoft Cloud surpassed $214 billion, up 27%.
And Azure surpassed $100 billion, up 41%.
Going forward, we have two goals. First, ensuring AI empowers every person, amplifying their agency and ambition. And second, empowering every organization to build their own continuous learning loop and ensuring that they don’t outsource their core IP.
Now, let’s talk about how we are delivering this across our stack, starting with our AI platform and infrastructure.
We added 31 new datacenters across 5 continents this quarter, bringing the total to 88 this year, as we expand our footprint in response to accelerating demand.
We are also bringing capacity online faster than ever. Over the last fiscal year, we have reduced dock-to-live times for new GPUs in our largest regions by nearly 50%.
All up, we added another gigawatt of capacity this quarter and remain on track to roughly double our overall capacity in just two years.
We are also getting more from the infrastructure we already have by optimizing across silicon, systems, and software.
For example, we increased the throughput for Copilot workloads 4X since the start of the year.
AI sovereignty is increasingly top of mind for our customers, and we are expanding our offerings to meet that need.
Just last week, we announced a partnership with Mistral to bring its models to Microsoft Sovereign Cloud, enabling customers to run them across public, customer-controlled, and fully disconnected environments.
We also continue to modernize our fleet with our own silicon innovation, alongside the latest from NVIDIA and AMD.
Maia 200 continues to scale. It delivers 30% better performance per dollar than the latest-generation hardware in our fleet and is now supporting both OpenAI and MAI models.
And we will be among the first cloud providers to deploy next-generation rack-scale AI infrastructure based on AMD Helios and NVIDIA Vera Rubin.
When it comes to running agents, CPUs are just as important as GPUs.
Our Cobalt VMs are powering both our own first-party workloads, as well as workloads for customers including Adobe, Arm, Elastic, OpenAI, Sprinklr, and Tom Tom.
And by the end of this month, we expect to have our Cobalt 200 racks in over 25 datacenters around the world as we rapidly expand capacity.
Now, let me turn to the end-to-end platform we are building on this infrastructure to run, govern, and distribute apps and agents.
It starts with model choice.
Every customer wants the right model for each task, based on quality, latency, cost, and compliance.
We offer the broadest model catalog in the cloud, with over 11,000 models, including the latest from OpenAI, Anthropic, Mistral, xAI, as well as our own MAI family.
Since the start of the year, we have seen a 5X increase in the number of customers building with models from multiple providers.
Levi Strauss & Co. for example is using models from OpenAI and Anthropic on Foundry, as it brings more than 1,000 domain-specific agents into a unified enterprise AI platform.
We are also accelerating our own model development.
We announced more than a dozen new models across image, voice, transcription, coding, and security, including our first reasoning model MAI Thinking 1, all with cost efficient inference at their core for Enterprise use cases.
We are co-designing these models with our silicon, and are seeing 40% better performance per watt when running MAI models on Maia 200.
But more importantly, we are building a new model system, where the harness, context, memory, and action space are separate from any one model family, thereby moving the frontier on the cost-to-outcome curve.
And it’s not just about cost. It also has the added benefit of business continuity and resilience because every model is substitutable.
This is the system we are using in our products, with great results.
For example, millions of developers have used MAI-Code-1-Flash on GitHub Copilot, achieving higher code acceptance rates and 10% lower median token usage, while still having access to frontier capabilities from OpenAI and Anthropic.
In Excel, MAI-Code-1-Flash is delivering comparable quality to GPT-5.6 for the most common tasks, while operating at significantly lower cost.
In security, MAI-Cyber-1-Flash achieves better performance than the much larger Mythos model but at half the cost, when combined with our multi-agent security harness.
More broadly, across our model implementations we’re seeing significant efficiency gains, including 89% reduction of GPU costs in Dynamics 365 with MAI-Voice-2-Flash and up to 84% reduced GPU costs in PowerPoint with MAI-Image-2.5.
And this system is available to any company as part of Foundry.
The next layer is enterprise data and context.
The data estate is evolving from primarily supporting apps used by people to supporting agents.
Customers are rapidly adopting our AI-optimized databases like Cosmos DB and PostgreSQL, to give agents fast, secure access to real-time data and context they need for memory and retrieval.
PostgreSQL revenue was up 55%, accelerating for the third consecutive quarter.
Also, the number of PostgreSQL customers also using Foundry increased 80%, as customers increasingly choose it as their database for AI workloads.
And we are going further with Horizon DB, our new fully managed PostgreSQL service on Azure, which delivers three times the throughput of self-managed deployments.
When it comes to analytics, we now have over 40,000 paid Fabric customers, up more than 60% year-over-year.
And over 17,000 customers now use Foundry and Fabric, up 60% year-over-year, as enterprises connect agents to real-time operational, analytical, and unstructured data in Fabric.
This quarter, we also introduced Rayfin, the agent-first SDK that delivers a backend as a service for building apps on Fabric.
More than 2,500 customers have already used Rayfin, and it is now powering the backend for apps created with Replit too.
On top of this data estate, we are building an IQ layer that combines data with model capabilities to deliver the right context at the right time.
Tens of thousands of customers – including nearly 90% of the Fortune 500 – are already grounding their agents in enterprise context with Foundry, Fabric, and Work IQ.
And this quarter we introduced Web IQ, which gives agents access to real-world intelligence from across the web.
It is already used by many of the most popular AI assistants, including ChatGPT.
Beyond model choice, data, and context, we are building Foundry as the complete app and agent stack.
It gives agents access to the IQ layer and tools they use, along with durable state and memory, secure sandboxes, rubrics and evals, and even their own self-improvement loops.
We now have 100,000 Foundry customers, and revenue more than doubled year-over-year.
Telefónica for example adopted Foundry as the foundation of its corporate agentic platform, with its first wave of agents tackling mission-critical network ops.
All up, the number of Foundry customers at a one trillion token annualized run rate increased 4X year-over-year.
And finally, with Agent 365 we offer a control plane that extends companies’ existing governance, identity, security, and management frameworks to agents they build.
Just two months in, Agent 365 now has nearly 40 million agents registered across tens of thousands of companies.
Now, let me turn to the apps and agents we are building on top of this platform for individuals and organizations.
When it comes to knowledge work, we now have over 30 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats, with net seat adds more than doubling quarter-over-quarter.
Copilot is evolving rapidly, from chat to Cowork to Autopilots.
Last month, we made Cowork generally available, helping customers complete multi-step tasks grounded in their work data while meeting enterprise security and compliance requirements.
This quarter, we also introduced Autopilots, autonomous, long-running agents with full enterprise compliance, including an always-on personal agent powered by OpenClaw.
And this quarter we will bring these Copilot experiences together, including Code, in one “super app” spanning both consumer and commercial experiences.
This is a major step forward, and I look forward to sharing more soon.
More broadly, we have steadily been improving the quality and performance of Copilot, and have been delighted by the recent customer feedback.
Over the last three quarters, user satisfaction scores have doubled and are now at an all-time high. And this quarter alone, we cut latency by 25%.
These quality improvements, together with continued product innovation, are driving record usage intensity.
The number of conversations per user nearly doubled year-over-year. Average weekly engagement is on par with Outlook and Teams.
And the time from deployment to what we think of as “high usage,” meaning monthly active usage above 80% across a customers’ user base, has fallen from months to just days over the past year.
The number of customers with more than 50,000 seats increased over 7X year-over-year.
And the number of enterprise customers deploying Copilot to the majority of their information workers grew nearly 75% quarter-over-quarter, a signal of how central Copilot has become to their operations.
NHS England, for example, is rolling out Copilot to 505,000 clinicians and staff — the largest healthcare deployment of its kind — after a trial showed it saved employees an average of 43 minutes per day.
KPMG is expanding its deployment across its global workforce of more than 276,000 professionals. And HSBC committed to 200,000 seats to accelerate its workforce transformation.
AstraZeneca, Boeing, Infosys, Koch Inc., Procter & Gamble, Stellantis, Tata Consultancy Services, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Wells Fargo, and Wipro each purchased 60,000 or more.
And we have been encouraged by the response to our new E7 suite, as customers increasingly go “all in” on an integrated AI offering that brings together Copilot, E5, Entra, and Agent 365.
Just two months after launch, hundreds of enterprise customers have already purchased millions of seats. And this quarter, EY deployed E7 to 400,000 employees in our largest win to date.
In addition to this, we are also evolving our business model beyond per-seat to per-seat-plus-consumption, further expanding our TAM and delivering more customer value.
Earlier this month, we added usage-based billing to Cowork, with thousands of customers already paying for and actively using it.
In biz apps, we have been reinventing Dynamics 365 for an agent-first world.
We are exposing over 650,000 MCP actions across sales, finance, supply chain, HR, and customer service so that agents can now access business context and take action using the same data models, rules, permissions, security guardrails, and audit trails as any application user.
And we are also moving from seats to a seats plus consumption model.
Customer service is at the forefront of this transformation, with usage based credit consumption in the category up 4X quarter over quarter, with customers like Northern Trust using our tools to drive proactive intelligence.
When it comes to developers, GitHub Copilot now has 50 million users.
This quarter, we introduced usage-based billing, and have continued to see Business and Enterprise seat growth, and also significant consumption revenue after the new model went into effect.
Copilot revenue accelerated over 60% quarter-over-quarter.
All up, GitHub now has 225 million users, as organizations across every industry – including over 90% of the Fortune 500 – choose GitHub for their AI-powered development.
The agentic era is being built on GitHub. Every major coding agent runs on the platform and one in three pull requests on GitHub now involves an agent.
In security, we are helping customers both secure their AI deployments and use AI to strengthen their security posture.
To date, Purview has audited over 50 billion Copilot interactions to meet compliance obligations, up nearly 360% year-over-year.
And earlier this week we introduced Project Perception, a complete multi-model agentic security system that brings together teams of agents to simulate attacks, investigate threats, and drive remediation.
As Perception moves beyond private preview, we expect to bring it to customers through a consumption-based offering.
In healthcare, we are on pace to automate over 100 million patient encounters this calendar year, including 28 million this quarter, up 2X year-over-year.
Mass General Brigham rolled out Dragon Copilot to over 4,000 providers after a study found ambient AI reduced burnout by 21%.
And in science, Microsoft Discovery, now broadly available, provides a comprehensive platform for building and governing agentic workflows for science and engineering.
Early customers include BHP, GSK, and Pacific Northwest National Lab.
Across both our high value agentic experiences and the AI platform and infrastructure, we are focused on helping customers turn AI into measurable outcomes.
The most comprehensive and valuable data in the world is inside each of the customer tenants.
And therefore there is an enormous opportunity to turn customers' workflows, domain knowledge, and accumulated judgment into AI systems that learn and improve with every usage.
To help customers capture that opportunity, this month we launched the Microsoft Frontier Co., the largest outcome-driven engineering organization in the industry.
We will embed 6,000 industry and engineering experts with customers to co-design, co-innovate, and continuously improve AI systems at scale.
We have been testing this model over the past year, completing over 330 projects across 164 customers, including many of the world’s leading companies across industries.
For example, our FDE teams worked with Novo Nordisk to build an agent that helps analyze clinical data while meeting its strict compliance requirements.
And we partnered with LSEG to embed AI into LSEG Workspace, helping finance professionals ask complex questions and quickly find answers across structured and unstructured financial content.
Finally, let me talk about devices and consumer.
When it comes to XBOX, we are making the necessary decisions required across our content portfolio, platform, and operations to reset the business for long-term growth.
We have the best IP in the industry, and talented studios around the world, and believe we can bring these strengths together and expect to return the business to growth in fiscal 2027.
In Windows, we are investing to ensure that it has the best quality and fundamentals, while also ensuring it is the best place to run secure edge AI.
We see significant opportunity for Windows to become the offload for unmetered intelligence, combining powerful on device compute with enterprise-grade security.
In search and advertising, Bing and Edge have both taken share for five straight years.
And LinkedIn continues to see strong engagement across the platform, with double-digit member growth for the fifth consecutive year.
Recruiters at over 20,000 companies are now using our AI-powered solutions to reduce time to hire and improve candidate matching. Seats increased 140% quarter-over-quarter.
In closing, I am energized about the opportunities ahead.
I have never been more confident in Microsoft’s opportunity to drive durable, long-term growth and ensure the benefits of AI flow broadly.
With that, let me turn it over to Amy to walk through our financial results and outlook.
AMY HOOD:
Thank you, Satya, and good afternoon everyone. This fiscal year, we delivered over $331 billion in revenue, with growth accelerating to 18%, driven by strong demand across both the Azure platform and our first-party AI applications and services. Operating income growth outpaced revenue growth, increasing 21% to more than $155 billion as we invested in long-term growth while continuing to expand operating leverage.
This quarter, revenue was $90 billion, up 18% and 17% in constant currency. Gross margin dollars increased 15% and operating income increased 18%. Earnings per share was $4.74, an increase of 23%, when adjusted for the impact from our investment in OpenAI. And FX was roughly in line with guidance.
Several discrete items impacted our financial results in the quarter when compared to our forward-looking guidance provided on our April earnings call, resulting in a benefit of 27 cents on diluted earnings per share.
These include a $3.2 billion gain from our investment in Anthropic and lower-than-expected expenses related to the Voluntary Retirement Program, which were partially offset by severance expense and impairment charges in XBOX.
When adjusting for these items, we exceeded expectations across revenue, operating income and earnings per share due to strong demand and execution in the quarter.
Company gross margin percentage was 67%, down year-over-year, driven by sales mix shift to Azure as well as continued investments in AI infrastructure and growing product usage, partially offset by ongoing efficiency gains, particularly in Azure and M365 Commercial cloud.
Operating expenses increased 10% driven by continued investment in R&D compute capacity, talent, and data to support product development across the portfolio. G and A growth was impacted by a low prior-year comparable as well as some of the discrete items mentioned earlier. Operating margins increased slightly year-over-year to 45%.
Total company headcount declined 2% year-over-year.
When adjusted for the impact of our investments in OpenAI, other income and expense was $2.8 billion driven by the gain on investment in Anthropic noted earlier.
Capital expenditures were $41 billion including the impact from higher component pricing as noted in our guide. Roughly two thirds of our capex was for short-lived assets, primarily CPUs and GPUs as customers increasingly build solutions that leverage both AI and non-AI infrastructure.
The remaining spend was for long-lived assets. This quarter, total finance leases were $5.6 billion and were primarily for large datacenter sites. And cash paid for P, P, and E was $35.8 billion.
Cash flow from operations was $55.4 billion, up 30% driven by strong cloud billings and collections, partially offset by an increase in operating lease payments. And free cash flow was $19.6 billion reflecting higher capital expenditures.
And finally, we returned $10.2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, bringing our total cash returned to shareholders to over $43 billion for the full fiscal year.
Now, to our commercial results.
Commercial bookings grew 18% when excluding the impact from OpenAI driven by strong execution in our core annuity sales motions and reflecting broad customer demand across geographies and customer segments. Bookings increased 10% and 11% in constant currency when including Azure commitments from OpenAI.
Commercial remaining performance obligation grew 84% to $678 billion. All sequential commercial RPO growth was driven by commitments from customers outside of frontier model companies. And RPO increased 25% when excluding OpenAI.
RPO, including OpenAI, has a weighted average duration of 2.3 years. And roughly 30% will be recognized in revenue in the next 12 months, up 37% year-over-year. The remaining portion recognized beyond the next 12 months increased 112%.
Microsoft Cloud revenue was $59.3 billion and grew 27%, reflecting strong demand across Azure and our first-party AI applications and services. And for the full year, our cloud revenue surpassed $214 billion, with nearly 90% from customers outside of frontier model companies.
Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage was better than expected at 65%, and down year-over-year driven by sales mix shift to Azure, as well as continued investments in AI infrastructure and increased product usage, partially offset by ongoing efficiency gains noted earlier.
Now to our segment results.
Revenue from Productivity and Business Processes was $37.8 billion and grew 14%.
M365 Commercial cloud revenue increased 16% on an adjusted basis when normalized for the prior-year comparable that benefited from 2 points of in-period revenue recognition. And on a reported basis, revenue growth was 14%. Building on our Copilot momentum from Q3, net paid seat adds more than doubled sequentially, with paid seats now over 30 million. Premium offerings, including Copilot, E5, and early traction in E7, drove ARPU growth this quarter. And paid M365 Commercial seats grew 6% year-over-year with installed base expansion across all customer segments, though primarily in our small and medium business and frontline worker offerings.
M365 Commercial products revenue increased 19%, ahead of expectations driven by large, long-duration M365 contracts that resulted in higher in-period revenue recognition from the Windows Commercial on-premises component.
M365 consumer cloud revenue increased 24% and 22% in constant currency, again driven by ARPU growth. And M365 consumer subscriptions grew 7%.
LinkedIn revenue increased 12% and 10% in constant currency primarily driven by Marketing Solutions.
Dynamics 365 revenue increased 13% and 12% in constant currency against a strong prior-year comparable. Bookings growth in ERP remains healthy, while CRM continued to moderate with longer sales cycles.
Segment gross margin dollars increased 14% and 13% in constant currency. And gross margin percentage decreased slightly with increased M365 Copilot usage as we continue to invest in product quality and drive further efficiency gains. Operating expenses increased 11% primarily driven by the shared R&D investments mentioned earlier. Operating income increased 15% and 14% in constant currency. And operating margins increased year-over-year to 58%.
Next, the Intelligent Cloud segment. Revenue was $39.3 billion and grew 32% and 31% in constant currency.
In Azure and other cloud services, revenue grew 43%, against a prior year that included accelerating growth. Customer demand continues to exceed available capacity. Revenue growth was ahead of expectations driven by efficiency gains across our CPU and GPU fleet as well as process improvements to enable earlier delivery of new capacity. That additional in-quarter capacity for Azure was quickly monetized. Results also benefited from stronger-than-expected GitHub Copilot consumption following the June business model change to align pricing with usage and value.
In our on-premises server business, revenue was relatively unchanged year-over-year and was down 1% in constant currency. Results were ahead of expectations primarily driven by renewals with higher in-period revenue recognition from the mix of contracts.
Segment gross margin dollars increased 24% and gross margin percentage decreased year-over-year primarily driven by sales mix shift to Azure, as well as the continued scaling of our AI infrastructure ahead of growing demand, partially offset by ongoing efficiency gains in Azure. Segment gross margins were also impacted by growing GitHub Copilot usage, though margins improved through the quarter with the June business model change to usage-based pricing. Operating expenses increased 10% driven by the shared R&D investments noted earlier. Operating income grew 31% and operating margins, with a strong focus on efficiencies and investment returns, were relatively unchanged year-over-year at 41%.
Now to More Personal Computing. Revenue was $12.9 billion and declined 4% and 5% in constant currency.
Windows OEM and Devices revenue decreased 7% and Windows OEM decreased 5% driven by lower PC market demand and a high prior-year comparable that benefited from Windows 10 end of support. Results were ahead of expectations as OEM and channel partners continued to build inventory given increasing component prices.
Search advertising revenue ex-TAC increased 10% and 9% in constant currency with growth driven by higher revenue per search across Edge and Bing, as well as higher volume, though growth was impacted by third-party partnerships.
And in XBOX, revenue decreased 10% and 11% in constant currency. XBOX content and services revenue decreased 10% against a prior-year comparable that benefited from strong first-party content performance.
Segment gross margin dollars decreased 2% and gross margin percentage increased year-over-year driven by lower amortization from the Activision acquisition. Operating expenses increased 8% and 7% in constant currency driven by the continued investments in shared R&D noted earlier as well as impairment charges in XBOX. Operating income decreased 14% and 15% in constant currency and operating margins decreased year-over-year to 21%.
Now, before I move to outlook, effective at the start of FY27, we are extending the estimated useful lives of our datacenters and office buildings, from 15 to 25 years, reflecting our operating history and expected use of these assets. The impact of this update is reflected in today's guidance.
This change affects only the timing of future depreciation and is expected to have a minimal benefit to FY27 operating income. The greater impact is on capital expenditures as more of our future datacenter leases will shift from finance leases to operating leases as a result of this update. Finance leases are included in capital expenditures while operating leases are not. Outside of this useful life impact, our calendar year 2026 CapEx investment expectations remain unchanged. However, the shift from finance to operating leases adjusts our expectation to approximately $175 billion.
Now, moving to our outlook.
Let me start with some full year commentary for FY27.
First some reminders. In both the M365 Commercial products and Server products KPIs, we are lapping higher transactional purchasing from the timing of product launches and expect revenue from both to decline in the mid-single digits for the full fiscal year.
Growth in Windows OEM and Devices will be impacted by lower PC market demand as higher component costs increase device pricing, a prior-year comparable that benefited from Windows 10 end-of-support, and elevated inventory levels. As a result, we expect revenue to decline in the high-teens for the fiscal year.
Moving to FX. Assuming current rates remain stable, we now expect FX to decrease full-year fiscal revenue growth by less than 1 point with no meaningful impact to COGS and operating expense growth.
At the company level, with strong commercial momentum, we continue to expect another fiscal year of double-digit revenue and operating income growth. Operating expenses should grow in the mid to high-single digits, reflecting continued investment in R&D compute capacity, talent, and data. And we expect FY27 capital expenditures will grow year-over-year given demand signals across our portfolio.
Even as we invest to meet growing demand, full fiscal year operating margins should be down less than a point. In addition, we expect to remain free cash flow positive in FY27.
And finally, we expect our FY27 effective tax rate to be approximately 20%.
Now, to the outlook for our first quarter, which unless specifically noted otherwise, is on a US dollar basis.
Based on current rates, we expect FX to decrease total revenue growth by less than 1 point with no meaningful impact to COGS or operating expense growth. Within the segments, we expect FX to decrease revenue growth in Productivity and Business Processes by roughly 1 point and Intelligent Cloud by less than 1 point. There is no meaningful impact in More Personal Computing.
Starting with our commercial business.
In commercial bookings, when adjusted for the impact from OpenAI, we expect healthy growth on a growing expiry base driven by strong execution across our core annuity sales motions. As a reminder, the significant OpenAI contracts signed in the prior year will result in some quarterly volatility in both the bookings and RPO growth rates.
Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage should be relatively stable quarter-over-quarter.
Now to segment guidance.
In Productivity and Business Processes we expect revenue of $36.7 to $37 billion, or growth of 11% to 12%.
In M365 Commercial cloud, we expect growth of approximately 16% in constant currency on an adjusted basis which normalizes for the prior-year comparable that benefited from 1 point of in-period revenue recognition, or 15% on a reported basis. Sequential growth from our momentum in Copilot, E5, and E7, is mitigated a bit by the lower ARPU new seat adds in frontline worker and small and medium business SKUs. With the premium SKU momentum and the increased monetization opportunity from adding usage-based billing products alongside per-seat licensing in July, we expect to see acceleration in M365 Commercial cloud revenue growth through this fiscal year.
M365 Commercial products revenue should grow in the mid-single digits driven by the timing of long-duration M365 contracts, partially offset by the impact from the prior-year comparable noted earlier.
M365 consumer cloud revenue should grow in the mid-teens, down sequentially as we lap the benefit from last year’s price increase. Growth will again be driven by ARPU and an increase in subscription volume.
For LinkedIn, we expect revenue growth in the high-single digits.
And in Dynamics 365, we expect revenue growth to be in the low-teens, relatively stable quarter-over-quarter driven by continued growth in ERP, although impacted by the bookings trends noted earlier.
For Intelligent Cloud, we expect revenue of $40.95 to $41.25 billion, or growth of 33% to 34%.
In Azure, we expect revenue growth of approximately 45% in constant currency and we remain focused on delivering efficiencies that help us bridge the gaps we see as customer demand continues to exceed supply. Even with the strong close to Q4, we continue to expect H1 growth to accelerate. And as a reminder, year-over-year Azure growth rates can vary quarter-to-quarter based on capacity timing and contract mix.
In our on-premises server business, we expect revenue to decline in the low to mid-single digits, with ongoing customer shift to cloud offerings and the prior-year comparable noted earlier.
In More Personal Computing, we expect revenue to be $12.2 to $12.7 billion as we continue to lap the strong prior-year comparables noted earlier and navigate complex PC market dynamics impacted by component prices and inventory levels.
Windows OEM and Devices revenue should decline in the low twenties driven by the market dynamics noted earlier. As in prior quarters, the range of potential outcomes remains wider than normal.
Search advertising revenue ex-TAC growth should be in the mid-single digits, down sequentially due to the impact of third-party partnerships. Growth will continue to be driven by consistent trends in revenue per search and volume.
And in XBOX content and services, we expect revenue to decline in the mid-single digits. Hardware revenue should decline year-over-year.
Therefore, at the total company level, revenue should be between $89.85 and $90.95 billion or growth of 16% to 17% with accelerating commercial growth partially offset by the impact from the PC market dynamics noted earlier.
We expect COGS of $29.6 to $29.8 billion, or growth of 23% to 24%. And operating expense of $16.8 to $16.9 billion or growth of 7% to 8% driven by continued investment in R&D compute capacity and talent. Operating margins should be relatively flat year-over-year.
Excluding any impact from our investments in OpenAI, other income and expense is expected to be roughly negative $100 million as interest income will be more than offset by interest expense, which includes the interest payments related to datacenter finance leases.
And we expect our Q1 effective tax rate to be approximately 20%.
Next, capital expenditures.
We expect CapEx spend will be over $50 billion including the lease reclassification impact from the useful life update.
In closing, in FY26 we delivered accelerating revenue and operating income growth while expanding operating margins. Our execution across sales and product engineering strengthened through the second half of the year. As we begin FY27, we remain focused on delivering products that create meaningful return on investment for our customers, which will result in durable long-term growth for Microsoft and our shareholders.
With that, let’s go to Q&A, Jonathan.
JONATHAN NEILSON: Thanks, Amy. We’ll now move over to Q&A. Out of respect for others on the call, we request the participants please only ask one question. Operator, can you please repeat your instructions?
(Operator Direction.)
OPERATOR: And our first question comes from the line of Karl Keirstead with UBS. Please proceed.
KARL KEIRSTEAD, UBS: Okay, great. Thank you, Satya. Maybe I’ll start away from the numbers and ask if you could spend a minute and elaborate on your opening comments about model choice and the protection of corporate IP. Maybe I could ask this in two parts.
First, how material do you think traction could be for open and custom models over the next year or two, knowing that many enterprises might be initially reticent to use open models?
And secondly, how exactly does Microsoft benefit from this shift, knowing that you’ve also got fairly large frontier lab exposure? Thanks so much.
SATYA NADELLA: Thank you, Karl. The way we are coming at this is at the end of the day, the goal is to have the firm be in control of their own destiny, in terms of what I describe as building their human capital and their token capital. At the end of the day, if a firm is a learning machine, they need their own learning machine, and that’s really the goal. And the models are an input, not some extraction of the knowledge of the enterprise.
But in some sense you have to really – at the end of the day, every firm is going to evaluate who are the providers who are helping them with their outcomes and their knowledge creation. I think that that is now fairly clear, and it’s going to become clearer by the day. This is not going to be about, come in and take all my knowledge and benefit yourself, whereas I am not getting anything out of it.
Given that direction of travel, we are very, very clear about the architectural design of the platform, which is you’ve got to keep your harness separate from the model, when the harness will ensure that your memory, your context all of that is external. That means any given model at any given time is swappable. You should and you can use frontier models. There’s no reason not to, but you also can use multiple of them.
If you look at some of the stats I gave, it’s a great example of how to use the frontier models for what they deliver, how to use low-cost models for what they deliver, and in fact, train your own model when you don’t want to use any external model itself, because after all, you have all the outputs, you have all the traces, you have all the context.
That’s really the enterprise design architecture that we are going to evangelize. We ourselves are using it. Copilot is built that way. GitHub Copilot is built that way. Our Security Copilot is built that way. And we want to democratize that design pattern so that every enterprise can use it. And within there, there will be a mix of open weights, closed weights.
And by the way, one of the things that’s least talked about is remember, if you look even at the Hugging Face incident, the biggest thing that you should take away from that is you can’t depend on any one model. You will maybe need multiple models to even remediate some challenges that get caused by one model. That’s the way to think about it, which is you can’t be subject to the refusals of one model.
There’s a lot more design space here. We talk about the frontier as if it’s one thing. The frontier is about every firm having a frontier, and the choice, the cost control and the capability that they need in order to be able to control their destiny.
AMY HOOD: And I think maybe, Karl, just to add a little bit to the end of your question, which is that it’s why it’s important that the platform is built, and I think Satya mentioned this in his comments, to be able to deliver the right model for the right job on the architecture called Azure.
And so, given that we continue to see growing demand no matter what model is chosen or what model family or whether it’s run a model of your own, the Azure platform is quite efficient at delivering that. Think about that infrastructure as being pretty fungible.
KARL KEIRSTEAD: Very helpful, thanks.
JONATHAN NEILSON: Thanks, Karl. Operator, next question, please.
OPERATOR: The next question comes from the line of Brent Thill with Jefferies. Please proceed.
BRENT THILL, Jefferies: Thanks. Amy, impressive acceleration in Azure up to 43 going to mid-40s. I guess the questions around the underlying drivers, what you and Satya are seeing in terms of just what’s driving this and many of the questions around capacity constraints, are we just still in the same environment or is this Microsoft just executing better, given the constraints we’re all seeing? Thanks.
AMY HOOD: Thanks, Brent. First, there are still constraints in the system. I think we’ve continued to say, I think now, for a number of quarters, that demand continues to exceed available supply, and that certainly remains true. You can even see it, I think, in some of the pricing that’s occurring in the spot market for assets.
When you think about being able to deliver better, the first thing we focus on, and I tried to talk a little bit about it in my prepared remarks, is efficiency, being able to get more out of everything that we’ve got in the fleet. That applies to efficiency gains in the CPU fleet. It’s going to be efficiency gains in the GPU fleet.
We saw a good work this quarter, in particular, from our engineering teams to make as much of that available as we could. And because of the supply demand imbalance we’ve been talking about, when we can make efficiency gains, they are quickly monetized in quarter. And I think that dynamic certainly impacted the quarter positively.
I would also say some of the process improvements we’ve made to make sure both CPUs and GPUs, just the lead time from how quickly we can get things to simplify it tremendously plugged in, was also improved over the past 90 days. And so, those improvements, again, are very quickly monetized when we’re able to do that.
And at the scale that we’re operating in terms of across the entire hyperscale fleet, making efficiency improvements that can be quickly monetized does result in acceleration in the quarter. It’s part of also what we expect to see and talk about with Q1.
JONATHAN NEILSON: Thanks, Brent. Operator, next question, please.
OPERATOR: The next question comes from the line of Mark Moerdler with Bernstein Research. Please proceed.
MARK MOERDLER, Bernstein: Thank you very much for taking my question, and congratulations on the solid – it’s a really great quarter.
Satya, Amy, sentiment around AI remains incredibly volatile with concerns about oversupply coming, as well as concerns about component pricing increasing impacting margins.
Amy, two related questions: How does Microsoft protect itself if there really is overcapacity and overbuilding of data centers or overbuilding of chips, etcetera? And on the flip side of that, how do you manage through the hardware price increases that we’re seeing, the component pricing, and that it doesn’t just drive you to either massively drive up the price of your offerings or negatively impact your margins? Thank you.
AMY HOOD: Thanks, Mark. The questions are a little bit related, but I’ll start with maybe the first.
Currently, the situation is obviously that demand exceeds available supply in a relatively extreme moment, but when you start to think about over the duration, I try to remind people, a lot of the expense, especially you see it in CapEx, you’ve seen our CapEx really pivot toward what I would call and do call short-lived assets, which really, that’s CPUs and GPUs that have relatively shorter lead times. And so, if the demand environment changes, you just slow down what is, in fact, the largest component and the driver of COGS.
The investment into land and data center builds is actually quite flexible. It’s a smaller percentage of the overall cost structure, and timing can be changed on much of that, especially on the builds, or you can stagger the timing of the build out of, as I was saying, some of the GPUs and CPUs that you plan to put in.
And so, when you think about being able to manage through that, hyperscalers have been doing that for quite a long time in terms of having the flexibility and the understanding of manage those changes in demand.
And the other thing is that’s important, Mark, is you just have an incredibly diverse book of business by geo, by segment, by industry. And I feel like when you look even at our backlog or what we added in RPO this quarter, it is from the breadth of really, the Microsoft product portfolio as well as our customer portfolio.
When you have the ability to late bind some of the more expensive components in short term, you have a big book of business that’s flexible. You have a big first-party app business that also uses the capacity that you’re building out in addition to your Azure platform. It does allow us to have a lot more flexibility to manage through those.
When it comes to the pricing question, I think that’s really impacting everybody equivalently in so many ways. What we’ve been trying to do, of course, at this point is to just make sure that we’re doing the best efficiency work we can so we can continue to give customers great value. We’re reminding people that frankly, the cloud offers tremendous benefits versus having to make these purchases as servers on-prem yourself, or the price increases are even more hard for customers. The cloud still provides a great ROI in those types of situations.
And we’re adding this capacity, to your point, but a lot of this obviously, is also being sold in newer contracts. And we’re able to have the pricing reflect it, but keep value where we – listen, for the long term, you want to have pricing work for customers and for you. And so, we’re trying to stay focused on that as well.
SATYA NADELLA: And if I just add to Amy’s comments, I thought Amy captured it well. All of us are reading this 1873 as the book to be read. And so, in my mind, I think you’ve got to get the product shape right. That’s a lot of what we are focused on. You have to get the portfolio right. Amy talked about how what we’re doing, whether it’s in Copilot or the Super App, bringing all the form factors or all the way to Azure, and the agent-first primitives in Azure. You have to really get that portfolio to all come together.
The mix of customers is super important. You have to recognize the breadth, the geo mix, the segment mix, the workload mix. And you’ve got to really think about all of those when you’re even building capacity. And then you’ve got to run an efficient railroad. At the end of the day, Amy talked a little bit about, even in the last quarter, how we’ve improved on the efficiency front. It’s not something that will just show up at the end. You have to monotonically work at it.
And so, we are very focused on all those. And then we know that there will be ups and downs of what is the cycle here, but the secular shift is clear. And we’re very bullish about us coming up with the right mix of business and the right margin structure, and most importantly, with the right value for our customers.
MARK MOERDLER: Excellent. Thank you so much.
JONATHAN NEILSON: Thanks, Mark. Operator, next question, please.
OPERATOR: Our next question comes from the line of Adam Wood with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.
ADAM WOOD, Morgan Stanley: Hi, good evening. Thanks for taking the question. And also, congrats on a very strong end of the year.
I wanted to maybe just ask about M365 Copilot. Obviously, very strong quarter there with over 30 million paid seats and a strong acceleration. Could you just talk a little bit about how you’re seeing customers move from pilots to broader deployments here? Is this still a pilot-driven motion or are we seeing a lot more broader deployments?
And then when we think about the monetization of the product in terms of additional seats, migration to higher value SKUs like E7, and then consumption, what do you see is the main monetization or the main driver of monetization from here, please? Thank you.
SATYA NADELLA: No, thank you, Adam, for that question. Let me start and then Amy can add.
I think, yeah, it starts with, again, that product shape. As you can see, even within the quarter, the product shape has changed pretty dramatically. We now have chat, Cowork, autopilot, code all coming to essentially, what is going to become this flagship Super App that various roles can use it.
And if you think about even the usage side, that’s the place where, again, lots of interesting data there, which is time to usage has drastically come down. What used to be months is days from when a license is bought to usage. The usage intensity itself has gone up significantly. I mean, we’re talking about a usage intensity that’s at the same level of what is an everyday communication tool like Outlook or Teams.
The second thing I’d say is the overall enterprise wiring of this, it’s not like a tool that’s isolated somewhere, but it’s wired in whether it is – you brought up E7. It’s wired into the governance pieces with Agent 365 so that you have your IT Ops, SecOps, FinOps all wired in, as well as it’s all the business processes.
For example, your CRM system, your ERP system, all of them are just skills and plug-ins that go into core work. You’re able to take that enterprise-wide workflow and wire it into the Super App. That increases usage so it all compounds.
And then the other one is the business model. We now have this perceived business model. And so, we also now have the usage business model. It’s seat plus usage. We’re already seeing the ARPU growth that comes from things like E7, but really as we deliver more value to customer and customer outcomes at the enterprise level.
In fact, if I think about historically, Office compared to what Copilot is, is much more narrower. This is the first time where you really have an enterprise-wide tool, which has a both per-seat and usage-based pricing. The TAM is much more expansive. We’re going to be very, very focused on driving customer value and then expanding with it.
AMY HOOD: Yeah, Adam, and I think I talked a little bit about it in my prepared remarks, but I do think what we’ve been seeing is over the course of this year, some of the growth in ARPU was from E5 plus the Copilot license that Satya is talking about.
We’ll see a little bit more from E7 really has a lot of interesting value in the Agent 365 component, in particular, where Satya is talking about, I mean, having SecOps and FinOps, think about in general, everyone is going to need both observability of token spend and the manageability of token spend for all business processes. And that is what E7 brings.
And so, I think it was only in market for a part of the quarter, and I think we were quite encouraged by the value customers saw in that SKU. I think we’ll continue to focus on that through the year.
And then finally, what Satya is talking about is this building TAM that grows through the year. And as I think about that expansive, expanding TAM, that’s really where we’re talking about this usage and consumption growth. And so, as more of those experiences get wired in and as IT gets more involved in that process, it’ll be quite, I think, changing in terms of what people think of the M365 capabilities.
SATYA NADELLA: It would be fun for you, Adam. I think one of your colleagues put out an ROIC document. I took that document to Copilot, which is a PDF, and I said, “Build me a new Power BI dashboard, essentially.” But here is the thing. It built a rich semantic model that went into my Fabric with OneLake that brought all the data in from the external sources. In fact, it was current with all the SEC filings of all the MAG7. And then on top of that, the repo itself is in GitHub, but the artifact is sitting in my Copilot as a site.
That, to me, is a classic example of an enterprise-wide workflow. I, as a knowledge worker, could go create a dashboard. The data engineer can go to Fabric and find the artifact. The professional developer can go to the repo and find it in GitHub. And by the way, it’s all registered with Agent 365. That’s a little bit of what Amy is describing as the coming together of a new way to work, even while at the same time, bringing IT, security and manageability of it.
ADAM WOOD: That’s very helpful. Thank you.
JONATHAN NEILSON: Thanks, Adam. Operator, next question, please.
OPERATOR: The next question comes from the line of Brad Zelnick with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.
BRAD ZELNICK, Deutsche Bank: Great. Thank you so much for taking my question.
Satya, appreciating cybersecurity is so core to everything Microsoft does, the playing field shifted recently with the latest frontier model releases, and this week you introduced Project Perception. Can you expand on what this moment means for your cyber business explicitly, and also what it means for trust in Microsoft more broadly? Thanks.
SATYA NADELLA: Yeah, thank you for that question. I think you’re right about saying that the entire, I would say, overall physics of how both what is needed in terms of the cyber product and even the cyber operations, because at the end of the day, you have to transform yourself on both the products, but also how you operate as a company to protect yourself, have changed pretty dramatically.
What we are focused on is first, again, take the same approach we’ve taken for knowledge work or coding, which is you’ve got to start with an intelligence-first, model-forward approach. And so, what we launched with Perception is essentially saying, let’s really make sure that you have the Red Team agents that know how to find – constantly are red teaming and finding the vulnerabilities. Then you have the Blue Team agent that is constantly going and making sure that you’re triaging, and the Green Team that fixes.
You create your own agentic system that’s continuously operating to create the cyber defense you need. It definitely feeds off of all the signals, whether it’s the defenders, the identity Entra signal, the Defender signal, the network signal, the app security signal, all that sort of helping really do the context so that you can then truly create the protection.
The other thing we’ve also said is especially in cyber, it becomes critical to have that multi-model approach, to the first question that was asked, not just for cost. In fact, we proved with the MDASH data in CyberGym that essentially, you can have Mythos-level performance with 50% less cost because of this MAI-Cyber-1-Flash.
And the reason is because 90% of the tasks are done by the Cyber-1-Flash model, and 10% of the tasks, you still go to the frontier. This is that mixing of the right model for the right task in what is essentially a pipeline job is a super important characteristic. And so, to us, I think this is an important piece.
Oh, and the other thing I’d say is from a resilience perspective. For whatever reason, if a given model goes away, then you can’t be left high and dry. You need to be able to still continue your cyber operations. And that’s the other piece.
It’s cost and resilience is both an important criteria. And that’s what we are trying to build in, whether it’s in code, whether it’s in cyber, whether it is in knowledge work. And we’re very excited about Perception and what it means, quite frankly, for our security business, going forward.
BRAD ZELNICK: Super helpful. Thank you.
JONATHAN NEILSON: Thanks, Brad. Operator, we have time for one last question.
OPERATOR: And the last question will come from the line of Gabriela Borges with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
GABRIELA BORGES, Goldman Sachs: Hey, good afternoon. Thank you.
Amy, I wanted to ask you about ROI. You’ve given us color on the CapEx side of the equation. You’ve given us color on the monetization side of the equation. Maybe put those two pieces together for us.
When you look at and track ROI on the CapEx decisions you’re making today, how does that compare to a year ago, and what are some of the levers that you can still pull, perhaps from the internal silicon side, for example, as a driver of incremental monetization going forward? Thank you.
AMY HOOD: Thanks, Gabriela.
I don’t know that, quite frankly, my math has changed in terms of how I do it over the past year. I would say the way to think about it for me is more the confidence in the TAM expansion, the margin levers that we have in terms of both product improvements than the infrastructure improvements.
We talked about some already on the call today in terms of the levers we have to continue to get efficiencies across both the application part of the stack and then the infra part of the stack. But you’re right, we didn’t touch on all of the pieces. I think Satya actually commented on a number of them.
We still have opportunities, obviously, as we continue to look for the best price performance on silicon, including our investments in first party. The work, frankly, on model diversification also is a margin improvement opportunity. Being able to serve the best possible outcome with a more efficient, or both efficient in terms of token usage and efficient in terms of cost structure are also margin levers. All of these things contribute, obviously, to your point of increased confidence in ROIC, frankly, of the dollars that we’re investing and continue to invest going forward.
As we think about the mix of the portfolio being able to have a pretty broad pool across knowledge work, coding, security, then basically the agent layer, I’ll call that Agent 365 as kind of a cheat, but all of that also is an opportunity, and then of course what we talked about on the Azure side between model efficiency, silicon, and component efficiency, including our investments in 1P solutions there, and just the overall efficiency of running it at a hyperscale.
So we have quite a few levers to continue to see improvement that we’re focused on, but as Satya mentioned, this is the grind work. This is like every day, you just get a little better, get a little better. We actually are quite good at that grind and making sure that we can deliver that for customers.
GABRIELA BORGES: That all makes sense. Thank you.
JONATHAN NEILSON: Thanks, Gabriela.
That wraps up the Q&A portion of today’s earnings call. Thank you for joining us today, and we look forward to speaking with all of you soon.
SATYA NADELLA: Thank you very much.
AMY HOOD: Thank you.
(Operator Direction.)
END
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应用数字超算租约与融资进展
重要性5/5 高
公司正式披露覆盖业绩、合同、融资和关联标的，且金额与执行节点明确。
中文摘要
核心结论
Applied Digital公布截至05/31的2026财年第四季度业绩，并披露与同一高信用等级超大规模客户签署三份15年承租即付租约，合计810兆瓦、基础租约收入约202亿美元；扩建计划伴随大额债务融资和项目投运风险。
重要性评级
评级：5/5（高）。公司正式新闻稿同时更新APLD（Applied Digital）业绩、长期合同、产能、融资与CHRN（ChronoScale）股权关系，事实密度高。
关键事实
- 截至05/31的财年第四季度营收2.587亿美元，同比增长407%；归属普通股股东净亏损1.106亿美元，每股亏损0.39美元。
- 调整后营收2.404亿美元、调整后净利润1290万美元、调整后息税折旧摊销前利润4235万美元，均为非公认会计准则指标。
- 公司与同一美国高信用等级超大规模客户签署三份15年承租即付租约：Delta Forge 1和Polaris Forge 3各300兆瓦，Delta Forge 2为210兆瓦；合计基础租约收入约202亿美元。
- 三份租约预计分别于2027年和2028年上半年开始运营；已签约关键IT负载达1.41吉瓦、基础租约收入约360亿美元。
- 公司完成21.5亿美元、票面利率6.75%的2031年到期优先担保票据私募，又完成15.9亿美元、票面利率7.00%的同年到期优先担保票据发行。
- APLD分拆云服务业务后持有CHRN约96%股权。
作者观点与证据
这是公司正式业绩稿，长期租约、融资和投运计划来自管理层披露。基础租约收入为合同期累计口径，不能等同于近期收入；项目按期投运、客户履约、融资成本和非公认会计准则调整均需持续核验。
与相关标的的关系
APLD为直接标的，数据中心租约、建设融资和亏损结构决定其经营验证重点。CHRN因APLD约96%持股及云服务业务分拆而直接相关。
时效性与限制（仅在有新增信息时）
发布于美东时间 07/27 16:05（UTC+8 07/28 04:05），财务期间截至05/31；合同中的2027至2028年投运时间属于前瞻安排。
后续跟踪
- 三个园区的建设、送电与客户上线节点。
- 租约的收入确认、保证和客户集中度。
- 债务余额、利息负担和流动性。
- CHRN业务分拆后的财务并表及股权变化。
英文原文
Applied Digital Reports Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2026 Results
Applied Digital Reports Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2026 Results
July 27, 2026 4:05pm EDT
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DALLAS, July 27, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Applied Digital Corporation (Nasdaq: APLD) ("Applied Digital" or the Company") , a U.S.-based designer, developer, owner, and operator of large-scale, purpose-built data centers engineered to support high-performance computing (“HPC”) workloads, including artificial intelligence (“AI”), machine learning, and other accelerated-compute applications, reported financial results for the fiscal fourth quarter ended May 31, 2026. The Company also provided operational updates.
During the quarter, the Company completed the separation of its Cloud Services Business in a series of transactions that resulted in the Company owning approximately 96% of the issued and outstanding equity of ChronoScale Holdings Corporation, f/k/a ChronoScale Corporation ("ChronoScale") as of the end of the fiscal year. ChronoScale, a public company, owns and operates our historic cloud services business and is consolidated into our financial statements, but excluded from the non-GAAP financial measures set forth below. Unless otherwise specified, disclosures in this earnings release, including the below, reflect continuing operations only.
Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2026 Financial Highlights
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Revenues: $258.7 million, up 407% from the prior year comparable period
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Net loss attributable to common stockholders: $110.6 million, down 108% from the prior year comparable period
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Net loss attributable to common stockholders per basic and diluted share: $0.39, up 63% from the prior year comparable period
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Adjusted revenue: $240.4 million
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Adjusted net income: $12.9 million
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Adjusted net income per diluted share : $0.04
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Adjusted EBITDA: $42.4 million
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Net Operating Income: $39.9 million
Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Highlights
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Revenues: $611.3 million, up 167% from the prior year comparable period
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Net loss attributable to common stockholders: $249.2 million, down 7% from the prior year comparable period
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Net loss attributable to common stockholders per basic and diluted share: $0.91, down 22% from the prior year comparable period
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Adjusted revenue: $539.7 million
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Adjusted net income: $36.1 million
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Adjusted net income per diluted share: $0.11
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Adjusted EBITDA: $107.2 million
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Net Operating Income: $90.4 million
Adjusted revenue, Adjusted net income (loss) , Adjusted net income (loss) per diluted share , Adjusted EBITDA, and Net Operating Income are non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation of each of these Non-GAAP Measures to the most directly comparable financial measure presented in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States (“GAAP”) is set forth below. These non-GAAP measures exclude the results of ChronoScale. See “ Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures. ”
Recent Highlights
- Signed a 15-year take-or-pay lease with a new U.S. based, high investment-grade hyperscaler for 300 megawatts ("MW") of critical IT load at Delta Forge 1, a new AI Factory campus in Boyce, Louisiana. The lease provides for approximately $7.5 billion in base-term contracted revenue, with initial operations expected to commence calendar year 2027.
- Signed a second 15-year take-or-pay lease with the same high investment-grade hyperscaler for 300 MW at Polaris Forge 3, which provides for approximately $7.5 billion in base-term contracted revenue, with initial operations expected to commence during calendar year 2027.
- Completed a $2.15 billion private offering of 6.750% Senior Secured Notes due 2031 (issued at 98% of par) through its subsidiary APLD ComputeCo 2 LLC. Proceeds will fund development of 200 MW of critical IT load at Polaris Forge 2 in Harwood, North Dakota.
- Closed a revolving credit facility of up to $550 million ($350 million committed + $200 million accordion), arranged by Goldman Sachs and maturing in May 2029, to support pre- and post-lease development across campuses.
- Enhanced credit quality on existing CoreWeave leases through a restructured SPV subsidiary, unconditional springing guarantees from CoreWeave, Inc., and a $50 million letter of credit. These changes followed CoreWeave’s investment-grade A3-rated refinancing and provide additional security for the Company’s 9.250% Senior Secured Notes due 2030.
- Closed a $300 million senior secured bridge facility led by Goldman Sachs to support development of the fourth building (150 MW) at Polaris Forge 1 (which has been repaid with the proceeds from the Senior Secured Notes Offering described below).
- Completed the separation of our cloud services business, combining it with Ekso Bionics Holdings, Inc. to form ChronoScale (Nasdaq: CHRN), an independent publicly traded accelerated-compute platform. Applied Digital currently owns approximately 96% of ChronoScale.
Subsequent to the Quarter
- Signed a third 15-year take-or-pay lease with the same high investment-grade hyperscaler for 210 MW at Delta Forge 2 (fifth AI Factory campus, third consecutive with this customer) in a new southern state. The lease provides for approximately $5.2 billion in base-term contracted revenue, with initial operations expected in the first half of calendar 2028.
- Entered a Memorandum of Understanding with CoreWeave to assign the Building 4 lease at Polaris Forge 1 to a CoreWeave subsidiary upon achieving an investment-grade credit rating.
- Closed $1.59 billion of 7.000% Senior Secured Notes due 2031 (issued at par) through our subsidiary APLD ComputeCo 3 LLC. Proceeds from this offering were used to repay the $300 million bridge facility and will fund the construction of the fourth building (150 MW), at Polaris Forge 1.
- Upsized the revolving credit facility, bringing the total committed amount to $430 million, with an additional $120 million accordion remaining.
- Achieved Ready for Service for Phase 1 of Building 2 (75 MW) at Polaris Forge 1 on schedule, bringing total live capacity at the campus to 175 MW.
Management Commentary
This was a defining quarter for Applied Digital, capping a defining year. Since the end of last quarter, we have signed three new leases — at Delta Forge 1, Polaris Forge 3, and Delta Forge 2 — all with the same high investment-grade hyperscaler and each in a different state. Delta Forge 1 and Polaris Forge 3 each provides for approximately $7.5 billion in base-term contracted lease revenue, while Delta Forge 2 adds approximately $5.2 billion. Together, these deals represent roughly $20 billion in long-term contracted revenue from a single, world-class customer that has now chosen us three times in a row.
With these agreements, we have secured 1.4 gigawatts ("GW") of contracted critical IT load, representing approximately $36 billion in total contracted lease revenue — or approximately $86 billion if all renewal options are exercised. We are building five multibillion-dollar AI Factory campuses for two hyperscalers and CoreWeave— a scale that we believe speaks to both the quality of our platform and the trust these customers place in our ability to execute.
“Nearly three years ago, we made a deliberate decision to build a company that scales, not just a company that builds data centers,” said Wes Cummins, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Applied Digital. “We call it our franchise model — a core team of design, construction, and operations professionals replicated across every campus, in each market. Combined with our proven supply chain and design approvals from every major hyperscaler, we believe this repeatable, differentiated platform is why we have emerged as one of the clear leaders in AI infrastructure.”
“We believe delivering on time is a genuine differentiator in this industry,” Cummins continued. “We brought Polaris Forge 1’s first 100 MW online on schedule and have now scaled total live capacity at the campus to 175 MW. We’re not just securing power — we’re turning it into operational AI capacity.”
Beyond the contracted portfolio and the approximately 1.4 GW already under construction, Applied Digital is actively marketing an additional 1.7 GW of capacity across multiple states, we see as underscoring robust demand for its AI Factories.
To fuel sustainable expansion, the Company is advancing a strategic power initiative. Applied Digital is working with Base Electron Corp., an independent power producer who has engaged Babcock & Wilcox to develop approximately 1.2 GW of front-of-the-meter natural gas-fired generation in the Dakotas, in collaboration with regional utilities. Applied Digital shareholders own approximately 10% of Base Electron Corp. through our investment in Base Electron. This deepens access to abundant, reliable, low-cost power — a critical competitive advantage for both existing campuses and future growth.
“We are still in the early innings of what we believe will likely be the largest buildout of critical infrastructure in modern economic history,” Cummins added. “We see demand for high-power-density, purpose-built AI data centers remaining extremely robust. Our approach is simple: Do it the right way. For customers, that means delivering high-quality, GPU-ready facilities on time. For communities, it means creating lasting economic value. When we do right by both, our shareholders win over the long term.”
Cummins also pointed to the continued strength of the Company’s Data Center Hosting business: “Our Data Center Hosting business, which operates 286 MW for bitcoin mining across our two North Dakota sites, remains the highest return-on-assets business in the company. We are paid based on the data center capacity provided to our customer, so as long as they are mining, we are paid regardless of where the price of bitcoin trades — which makes this a steady, high-margin source of cash flow.”
The Company also completed the separation of its cloud services business during the quarter and currently owns approximately 96% of ChronoScale, a public company trading on Nasdaq under the symbol “CHRN.” ChronoScale has continued to build out its leadership team, including the appointments of Raj Jegannathan, previously a Vice President at Tesla, as Chief Technology Officer, and Lawrence Lam, who brings more than twenty years scaling global cloud and AI platforms at companies including Supermicro, as Chief Product Officer.
HPC Hosting Update
Applied Digital's HPC Hosting Business designs, builds, and operates next-generation, purpose-built AI Factory data centers. As of May 31, 2026, the Company had executed long-term leases representing approximately 1,410 MW of contracted critical IT load across five campuses — Polaris Forge 1, 2, and 3 in North Dakota and Delta Forge 1 and 2 in Louisiana and another southern state — representing approximately $36 billion of total contracted revenue over the initial 15-year base lease terms, or approximately $86 billion if all renewal options are exercised.
The first 100 MW data center at Polaris Forge 1 became operational in October 2025, and the Company delivered Phase 1 of Building 2 (75 MW) on June 30, 2026, bringing the total live capacity at the campus to 175 MW. Additional buildings at Polaris Forge 1, along with Polaris Forge 2, Polaris Forge 3, Delta Forge 1, and Delta Forge 2, are in various stages of construction.
Revenue from our HPC Hosting business totaled $203.0 million for the quarter, including $44.1 million related to base rent, $152.4 million related to tenant fit-out services, and $6.5 million related to tenant recoveries. This resulted in $26.2 million of segment operating profit for the quarter ended May 31, 2026.
Data Center Hosting Update
Applied Digital’s Data Center Hosting Business operates data centers to provide energized space to crypto mining customers. As of May 31, 2026, the Company’s 106 MW facility in Jamestown, ND, and 180 MW facility in Ellendale, ND, were operating at full capacity.
During the three months ended May 31, 2026, the Company generated $37.3 million in revenue from the Data Center Hosting Business segment, compared to $38.0 million during the three months ended May 31, 2025. The results were materially consistent year over year due to stable operating conditions across the Company’s data center hosting facilities.
We are very pleased with our Data Center Hosting Business, which generated $12.5 million in segment operating profit for the three months ended May 31, 2026 on $113.8 million in reported assets at the end of the period.
Cloud Services Business Update
On May 5, 2026, we completed the separation of our cloud services business, combining it with Ekso Bionics Holdings, Inc. to form ChronoScale Holdings Corporation, an independent, publicly traded accelerated-compute platform that is trading on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol "CHRN." Applied Digital currently owns approximately 96% of ChronoScale.
We consider the Data Center Hosting Business and the HPC Hosting Business to represent our core operations for long-run strategic and performance evaluation purposes as we evolve into a pure-play data center platform moving forward. Accordingly, although we consolidate ChronoScale’s financial results as our majority owned subsidiary, we excluded the results of ChronoScale, including its cloud services business, in our Non-GAAP results presented herein. See “ Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures. ”
Financial Results from Operations for Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2026
Operating Results
Services revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter 2026 was $208.2 million compared to $51.1 million, up 308% from the fiscal fourth quarter 2025. The growth was primarily driven by revenue of approximately $152.4 million related to tenant fit-out services within our HPC Hosting Business, which we began providing during the fiscal year ended 2026.
Data center rental and other revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter 2026 was $50.6 million as the first HPC data center at our Polaris Forge 1 campus was fully operating during the current quarter. This revenue consisted of $44.1 million related to base rent, and $6.5 million related to tenant recoveries.
Services cost of revenues in the fiscal fourth quarter 2026 were $193.1 million compared to $54.2 million, up 256% from the fiscal fourth quarter 2025. This increase was primarily driven by an increase of $145.6 million in expenses associated with tenant fit-out services for our HPC Hosting Business.
Data center rental and other cost of revenues in the fiscal fourth quarter 2026 were $25.1 million. Data center rental and other cost of revenue included approximately $14.1 million in depreciation and amortization expense on our first HPC data center at our Polaris Forge 1 campus, $6.4 million in expenses which are reimbursable as tenant recoveries, and $4.5 million in personnel and other expenses directly supporting revenue.
Selling, general and administrative expenses in the fiscal fourth quarter 2026 were $165.3 million compared to $41.0 million, up 303% from the fiscal fourth quarter of 2025 driven by the Company’s overall business growth. This increase was primarily due to increases of $116.8 million in stock based compensation due to accelerated vesting of certain employee stock awards as well as grant activity associated with separation of the cloud services business and the increase in headcount, $7.3 million in personnel expenses related to the increase in headcount, and $5.6 million in professional service expense primarily related to legal services provided on discrete transactions and projects, as well as general support of the business. These increases were partially offset by a decrease of $5.4 million in other selling, general, and administrative expense such as travel, computer and software expenses.
Interest expense, net in the fiscal fourth quarter 2026 was $10.6 million compared to $8.5 million, up 26%, from the fiscal fourth quarter 2025. As we entered into new debt arrangements during the current fiscal year, there was an increase of $31.9 million in interest expense. The increase in expense was partially offset by an increase of $30.5 million in interest income due to larger balances of funds held in interest-bearing demand deposit accounts.
Gain on change in fair value of derivatives was $53.3 million for the three months ended May 31, 2026, due to an increase of $69.9 million in the fair value of our Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. (“B&W”) common stock warrant which was partially offset by a decrease of $16.7 million in the fair value of the derivative assets related to the preferred units and corresponding common units held by APLD HPC TopCo 2’s noncontrolling interest.
Gain on change in fair value of investment was $4.8 million for the three months ended May 31, 2026, due to the increase in the fair value of our investment in B&W common stock.
Net loss from discontinued operations was $1.0 million for the three months ended May 31, 2026 and represents the income statement activity related to the Ekso business at ChronoScale which was classified as held for sale and discontinued operations during the fiscal fourth quarter 2026.
Net loss from continuing operations attributable to common stockholders for the fiscal fourth quarter 2026 was $110.6 million, or $0.39 per basic and diluted share. This compares to a net loss attributable to common stockholders from continuing operations of $53.1 million, or $0.24 per basic and diluted share for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2025.
Adjusted revenue, a non-GAAP financial measure, was $240.4 million for the fiscal fourth quarter 2026 compared to $38.0 million for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2025.
Adjusted net income, a non-GAAP financial measure, was $12.9 million, or $0.04 per diluted share for the fiscal fourth quarter 2026. This compares to an adjusted net loss, a non-GAAP financial measure, of $7.6 million, or $0.03 per diluted share, for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2025.
Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP financial measure, was $42.4 million for the fiscal fourth quarter 2026 compared to an Adjusted EBITDA of $1.0 million for the fiscal fourth quarter 2025.
Net Operating Income, a non-GAAP financial measure, was $39.9 million for the fiscal fourth quarter 2026.
Financial Results for Fiscal Year Ended May 31, 2026
Services revenue increased $270.0 million, or 119%, from $226.6 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2025 to $496.6 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026. Our HPC Hosting Business commenced operations at our first HPC data center at our Polaris Forge 1 campus resulting in the recognition of approximately $270.6 million related to tenant fit-out services. Additionally, there was an increase of $12.1 million in revenue generated by our Data Center Hosting Business due to performance improvements compared to the fiscal year ended May 31, 2025. These increases were partially offset by a decrease of $12.4 million in revenue generated from ChronoScale primarily due to a reduction in rates for cloud services.
Data center rental and other revenue was $114.7 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026, which is the period during which our HPC Hosting Business commenced operations. This revenue consisted of approximately $99.8 million related to base rent and $14.9 million related to tenant recoveries.
Services cost of revenues increased by $180.1 million, or 83%, from $216.8 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2025 to $396.9 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026. The increase was primarily due to $258.1 million in expenses associated with tenant fit-out services for our HPC Hosting Business which we began providing during the current fiscal year. This increase was partially offset by decreases of approximately $62.3 million in depreciation and amortization expense and $17.2 million in lease and related expense primarily due to the renegotiations of certain of our leases during fiscal year ended May 31, 2026, as well as due to the Cloud Services Business (one of our three operating business segments at the time) being classified as held for sale until February 15, 2026, which resulted in decreased depreciation and amortization recorded.
Data center rental and other cost of revenue was $56.8 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026, which is when we commenced our data center rental operations within our HPC Hosting Business. The primary components of data center rental and other cost of revenue include approximately $32.2 million in depreciation and amortization expenses associated with our HPC Hosting Business, $14.9 million in expenses which are reimbursable as tenant recoveries, $8.5 million in rental property operating expenses, which are not eligible for recovery from our tenant, $0.7 million in property insurance expenses associated with our HPC Hosting Business, and $0.2 million in property tax expenses associated with our HPC Hosting Business.
Selling, general and administrative expense increased by $224.2 million, or 208%, from $107.9 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2025 to $332.1 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026. The increase was primarily due to the overall growth in the business, with a $198.3 million increase in stock-based compensation primarily due to an increase in grant activity related to the separation of the cloud services business, the increase in headcount and performance stock awards granted during the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026 compared to the fiscal year ended May 31, 2025, $16.0 million increase in professional service expenses primarily related to legal services provided on discrete transactions and projects as well as general support of the business, $15.4 million increase in personnel expenses driven by increases in headcount to support the business, and $6.2 million increase in other selling, general, and administrative expense primarily related to travel, computer and software expenses. These increases were partially offset by a decrease of $11.7 million in lease and related expenses and depreciation and amortization expense, primarily due to the renegotiations of certain of our leases during the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026.
Loss (gain) on classification of held for sale changed by $84.3 million, or 342%, from a gain of $24.6 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2025 to a loss of $59.7 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026. The loss during the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026 was primarily due to the write down of the Cloud Services Business assets to carrying value as of February 15, 2026 when it no longer qualified as held for sale. Comparatively, the gain during the fiscal year ended May 31, 2025 was due to the sale of our former Garden City facility.
Interest expense, net decreased $2.6 million, or 8%, from $32.1 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2025 to $29.5 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026. As we entered into more debt arrangements during the current fiscal year, there was an increase of $53.3 million in interest expense. The increase in expense was partially offset by an increase of $52.6 million in interest income due to larger balances of funds held in interest-bearing demand deposit accounts.
Gain on change in fair value of derivatives was $75.8 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026, due to an increase of $89.2 million in fair value of our Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. (“B&W”) common stock warrant partially offset by a decrease of $13.3 million in fair value of the derivative assets related to the preferred units and corresponding common units held by APLD HPC TopCo 2’s noncontrolling interest.
Gain on change in fair value of investments was $10.8 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026, due to an increase of $8.8 million in fair value of our investment in B&W common stock and an increase of $2.0 million in fair value of our investment in Base Electron, a related party.
Loss on conversion of debt was $33.6 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2025, due to the difference in the fair value compared to the price at which the promissory notes, totaling $92.1 million, entered into with YA II PN, LTD in the year ended May 31, 2024 (the “YA Notes") were converted. There was no such loss recorded in the current fiscal year.
Loss on change in fair value of debt was $85.4 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2025, primarily due to a loss of approximately $89.6 million related to the change in fair value of the conversion option derivative of the Convertible Notes during the two week period in which we did not have sufficient authorized shares to settle such conversion fully in shares, which was partially offset by a gain of approximately $4.1 million related to the change in the fair value of the YA Notes.
Net loss from discontinued operations was $1.0 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026 and represents the income statement activity related to the Legacy Ekso business at ChronoScale classified as held for sale and discontinued operations.
Net loss from continuing operations attributable to common stockholders was $249.2 million, or $0.91 per basic and diluted share, for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026. This compares to a net loss attributable to common stockholders from continuing operations of $233.7 million, or $1.16 per basic and diluted share, for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2025.
Net loss from discontinued operations attributable to common stockholders for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026 was $1.0 million. There was no such activity in the prior fiscal year.
Adjusted revenue, a non-GAAP financial measure, was $539.7 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026 compared to $144.2 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2025.
Adjusted net income from continuing operations attributable to common stockholders, a non-GAAP financial measure, was $36.1 million or $0.11 per diluted share for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026. This compares to an adjusted net loss attributable to common stockholders of $12.5 million, or $0.06 per basic and diluted share, for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2025.
Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP financial measure, was $107.2 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026 compared to an Adjusted EBITDA of $19.6 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2025.
Net Operating Income, a non-GAAP financial measure, was $90.4 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026.
Balance Sheet
As of May 31, 2026, the Company had $4.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash, along with $5.0 billion in debt.
Conference Call
As previously announced, Applied Digital will host a conference call today, July 27, 2026, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time (2:00 p.m. Pacific Time) to discuss these results. A question-and-answer session will follow the management’s presentation.
Date: Monday, July 27, 2026
Time: 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time (2:00 p.m. Pacific Time)
North America Dial-In: 1-833-461-5787
International Dial-In: +1 (585) 542-9983
Conference ID: 735983255
The conference call will be broadcast live and available for replay for one year here .
Please call the conference telephone number approximately 10 minutes before the start time. An operator will register your name and organization. If you have difficulty connecting with the conference call, please get in touch with Applied Digital’s investor relations team at 1-949-574-3860.
About Applied Digital
Applied Digital Corporation (Nasdaq: APLD) named Best Data Center in the Americas 2025 by Datacloud - designs, develops, owns, and operates large-scale, purpose-built data centers engineered to support HPC workloads, including AI, machine learning, and other accelerated-compute applications. Headquartered in Dallas, TX, and founded in 2021, the Company combines hyperscale expertise, closed-loop cooling, and rapid deployment capabilities to deliver secure, scalable compute at industry-leading speed and efficiency, while creating economic opportunities in underserved communities through its award-winning Polaris Forge AI Factory model. Find more information at www.applieddigital.com . Follow us on X (formerly Twitter) at @APLDdigital.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains “forward-looking statements” as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 regarding, among other things, future operating and financial performance, product development, market position, business strategy and objectives and future financing plans. These statements use words, and variations of words, such as "intend," “will,” “continue,” “build,” “future,” “increase,” “drive,” “believe,” “look,” “ahead,” “confident,” “deliver,” “outlook,” “expect,” “project” and “predict.” Other examples of forward-looking statements may include, but are not limited to, (i) statements that reflect perspectives and expectations regarding lease agreements and any current or prospective data center campus development; (ii) statements about the high-performance computing (HPC) industry; (iii) statements of Company plans and objectives, including the Company’s evolving business model, or estimates or predictions of actions by suppliers; (iv) statements of future economic performance; (v) statements of assumptions underlying other statements and statements about the Company or its business; (vi) the Company’s plans to obtain future project financing; and (vii) statements regarding ChronoScale. These statements are based on current expectations of future events and thus are inherently subject to uncertainty. If underlying assumptions prove inaccurate or known or unknown risks or uncertainties materialize, actual results could vary materially from the Company’s expectations and projections. These risks, uncertainties, and other factors include, among others: our ability to complete construction of our data center campuses as planned; the lead time of customer acquisition and leasing decisions and related internal approval processes; changes to artificial intelligence and HPC infrastructure needs and their impact on future plans; costs related to the HPC operations and strategy; our ability to timely deliver any services required in connection with completion of installation under the lease agreements; our ability to raise additional capital to fund the ongoing datacenter construction and operations; our ability to obtain financing of datacenter leases on acceptable financing terms, or at all; our dependence on principal customers, including our ability to execute and perform our obligations under our leases with key customers; our ability to timely and successfully build new HPC hosting facilities with the appropriate contractual margins and efficiencies; power or other supply disruptions and equipment failures; the inability to comply with regulations, developments and changes in regulations; cash flow and access to capital; availability of financing to continue to grow our business; decline in demand for our products and services; maintenance of third party relationships; conditions in the debt and equity capital markets. A further list and description of these risks, uncertainties and other factors can be found in the Company’s most recently filed Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, including in the sections captioned “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Risk Factors,” and in the Company’s subsequent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Copies of these filings are available online at www.sec.gov, on the Company’s website (www.applieddigital.com) under “Investors,” or on request from the Company. Information in this earnings release is as of the dates and time periods indicated herein, and the Company does not undertake to update any of the information contained in these materials, except as required by law.
Use and Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
To supplement our consolidated financial statements presented under GAAP, we are presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. We are providing these non-GAAP financial measures to disclose additional information to facilitate the comparison of past and present operations by providing perspective on results absent one-time or significant non-cash items. We utilize these measures in the business planning process to understand expected operating performance and to evaluate results against those expectations. We believe that these non-GAAP financial measures, when considered together with our GAAP financial results, provide management and investors with an additional understanding of our core business operating results regarding factors and trends affecting our business and provide a reasonable basis for comparing our ongoing results of operations. Management considers the Data Center Hosting Business and the HPC Hosting Business to be its core operations for long-run strategic and performance evaluation purposes. Accordingly, these non-GAAP financial measures exclude the results of our consolidated subsidiary, ChronoScale. ChronoScale is included in our consolidated financial statements and results of continuing operations. Due to its strategic role relative to the Company’s core business, management believes the ChronoScale results may obscure underlying trends in the performance of core operations when included in certain non-GAAP measures.
These non-GAAP financial measures are provided as supplemental measures to our performance measures calculated in accordance with GAAP and therefore, are not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for comparable GAAP measures. Excluding the results of ChronoScale in our non-GAAP financial measures removes revenues and expenses that are part of the Company’s consolidated results and continuing operations and should not be viewed as measures or reflections of liquidity or profitability in accordance with GAAP. Further, these non-GAAP financial measures have no standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP and are not prepared under any comprehensive set of accounting rules or principles. Because of the non-standardized definitions of non-GAAP financial measures, we caution investors that the non-GAAP financial measures as used by us in this earnings release have limits in their usefulness to investors and may be calculated differently from, and therefore may not be directly comparable to, similarly titled measures used by other companies. Further, investors should be aware that when evaluating these non-GAAP financial measures, these measures should not be construed as an inference that our future results will be unaffected by unusual or non-recurring items. In addition, from time to time in the future there may be items that we may exclude for purposes of our non-GAAP financial measures and we may in the future cease to exclude items that we have historically excluded for purposes of our non-GAAP financial measures. Likewise, we may determine to modify the nature of the adjustments to arrive at our non-GAAP financial measures. Investors should review the non-GAAP reconciliations provided below and not rely on any single financial measure to evaluate our business.
Adjusted Revenue
“Adjusted revenue” is a non-GAAP financial measure that represents total revenue excluding ChronoScale revenue. Adjusted revenue is total revenue excluding total revenue from ChronoScale.
Adjusted Operating Income, Adjusted Net Income (Loss), and Adjusted Net Income (Loss) per Diluted Share
“Adjusted operating income” and “Adjusted net income (loss) from continuing operations attributable to common stockholders” are non-GAAP financial measures that represent operating income and net income (loss) from operations excluding ChronoScale, respectively. Adjusted operating income is Operating loss excluding operating loss from ChronoScale, stock-based compensation, non-recurring repair expenses, diligence, acquisition, disposition and integration expenses, litigation expenses, loss on abandonment of assets, (gain) loss on classification of held for sale, accelerated depreciation and amortization, loss on legal settlement, restructuring expenses and other non-recurring expenses that management believes are not representative of our expected ongoing costs. Adjusted net income (loss) is Adjusted operating income further adjusted for interest expense directly attributable to ChronoScale, gain on change in fair value of derivatives, gain on change in fair value of investments, loss on conversion of debt, loss on change in fair value of debt, loss on change in fair value of related party debt, loss on change in fair value of warrants, loss on change in fair value of warrants issued to related parties, loss on extinguishment of debt and loss on extinguishment of related party debt. We define “Adjusted net income (loss) per diluted share” as Adjusted net income (loss) divided by weighted average diluted share count.
EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA
“EBITDA” is defined as earnings before interest expense, net, income tax expense, and depreciation and amortization and excluding the results of ChronoScale. “Adjusted EBITDA” also excludes results of ChronoScale and is defined as EBITDA adjusted for stock-based compensation, non-recurring repair expenses, diligence, acquisition, disposition and integration expenses, litigation expenses, (gain) loss on classification as held for sale, loss on abandonment of assets, gain on change in fair value of derivatives, gain on change in fair value of investments, loss on conversion of debt, loss on change in fair value of debt, loss on change in fair value of related party debt, loss on change in fair value of warrants, loss on change in fair value of warrants issued to related parties, loss on extinguishment of debt and loss on extinguishment of related party debt, loss on legal settlement, restructuring expenses, and other non-recurring expenses that management believes are not representative of our expected ongoing costs.
Net Operating Income
"Net Operating Income" is a non-GAAP financial measure that represents base rental revenue from the HPC Hosting Business. Net Operating Income is HPC Hosting Business base rental revenue less rental property operating expenses, property taxes, and property insurance expenses. "Net Operating Income Margin" is defined as Net Operating Income divided by HPC Hosting Business base rental revenue.
Investor Relations Contacts
Media Contact
Matt Glover or Ralf Esper
Buffy Harakidas, EVP
Gateway Group, Inc.
JSA (Jaymie Scotto & Associates)
(949) 574-3860
(856) 264-7827
APLD@gateway-grp.com
jsa_applied@jsa.net
APPLIED DIGITAL CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
Consolidated Balance Sheets
(In thousands, except share and par value data)
May 31, 2026
May 31, 2025
ASSETS
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents
$
1,591,988
$
43,950
Restricted cash
2,381,027
72,368
Accounts receivable
56,309
6,830
Prepaid expenses and other current assets (1)
613,692
9,652
Current assets held for sale
19,841
—
Total current assets
4,662,857
132,800
Property and equipment, net
4,236,300
1,252,287
Operating lease right of use assets, net
76,922
92,335
Finance lease right of use assets, net
122,523
213,315
Other assets
830,710
179,353
TOTAL ASSETS
$
9,929,312
$
1,870,090
LIABILITIES, TEMPORARY EQUITY AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable
$
395,474
$
251,491
Accrued liabilities
548,493
30,121
Current portion of operating lease liability
18,484
16,785
Current portion of finance lease liability
47,585
147,040
Current portion of debt
16,422
10,331
Customer deposits
16,752
16,125
Deferred revenue
4,666
3,594
Current liabilities held for sale
7,426
—
Due to customer
10,065
4,807
Other current liabilities
97,489
19,431
Total current liabilities
1,162,856
499,725
Long-term portion of operating lease liability
47,178
58,800
Long-term portion of finance lease liability
10,731
15
Long-term debt
4,959,516
677,825
Other long-term liabilities
5,454
—
Total liabilities
6,185,735
1,236,365
Commitments and contingencies (Note 18)
Temporary equity
Series E preferred stock, $0.001 par value, 2,000,000 shares authorized, 301,673 shares issued and 276,673 outstanding at May 31, 2026, and 301,673 shares issued and outstanding at May 31, 2025
6,306
6,932
Series E-1 preferred stock, $0.001 par value, 62,500 shares authorized and issued and 61,909 shares outstanding at May 31, 2026, and 62,485 shares outstanding at May 31, 2025
56,460
57,011
Series G preferred stock, $0.001 par value, 1,030,000 shares authorized, no shares issued and outstanding at May 31, 2026, and 156,000 shares authorized, 78,000 shares issued and outstanding at May 31, 2025
—
72,094
Redeemable noncontrolling interest
1,956,303
—
Stockholders' equity:
Common stock, $0.001 par value, 600,000,000 shares authorized, 295,048,903 shares issued and 287,883,603 shares outstanding at May 31, 2026, and 234,200,868 shares issued and 224,909,669 shares outstanding at May 31, 2025
296
230
Treasury stock, 7,165,300 shares at May 31, 2026 and 9,291,199 shares at May 31, 2025, at cost
(52,737
)
(31,400
)
Additional paid in capital
2,432,250
1,009,913
Accumulated deficit
(662,333
)
(481,055
)
Total stockholders’ equity attributable to Applied Digital Corporation
1,717,476
497,688
Noncontrolling interest
7,032
—
Total stockholders' equity including noncontrolling interest
1,724,508
497,688
TOTAL LIABILITIES, TEMPORARY EQUITY AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY
$
9,929,312
$
1,870,090
(1) Includes a related party loan receivable of $58.6 million as of May 31, 2026.
APPLIED DIGITAL CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
Consolidated Statements of Operations
(In thousands, except per share data)
Three Months Ended
Fiscal Year Ended
May 31, 2026
May 31, 2025
May 31, 2026
May 31, 2025
Revenue:
Services revenue
$
208,190
$
51,076
$
496,609
$
226,643
Data center rental and other revenue
50,558
—
114,702
—
Related party revenue
—
—
—
1,926
Total revenue
258,748
51,076
611,311
228,569
Costs and expenses:
Services cost of revenue
193,121
54,196
396,858
216,759
Data center rental and other cost of revenue
25,110
—
56,771
—
Selling, general and administrative (1)
165,282
41,026
332,096
107,877
Loss (gain) on classification of held for sale (2)
—
—
59,650
(24,616
)
Loss on abandonment of assets
55
(45
)
2,398
724
Total costs and expenses
383,568
95,177
847,773
300,744
Operating loss
(124,820
)
(44,101
)
(236,462
)
(72,175
)
Interest expense, net (3)
10,633
8,451
29,516
32,139
Gain on change in fair value of derivatives
(53,276
)
—
(75,818
)
—
Gain on change in fair value of investments
(4,768
)
—
(10,840
)
—
Loss on conversion of debt
—
—
—
33,612
Loss on change in fair value of debt
—
—
—
85,439
Loss on extinguishment of debt
—
—
—
1,177
Loss on change in fair value of warrants
2,212
—
2,212
6,421
Net loss from continuing operations before income tax expense
(79,621
)
(52,552
)
(181,532
)
(230,963
)
Income tax expense (benefit)
1,766
(16
)
1,787
102
Net loss from continuing operations
(81,387
)
(52,536
)
(183,319
)
(231,065
)
Net loss from discontinued operations
(1,020
)
—
(1,020
)
—
Net loss
(82,407
)
(52,536
)
(184,339
)
(231,065
)
Net loss attributable to noncontrolling interest and redeemable noncontrolling interest
(27,615
)
—
(59,665
)
—
Preferred dividends
(1,558
)
(540
)
(6,259
)
(2,615
)
Net loss attributable to common stockholders
$
(111,580
)
$
(53,076
)
$
(250,263
)
$
(233,680
)
Net loss attributable to common stockholders
Continuing operations
$
(110,560
)
$
(53,076
)
$
(249,243
)
$
(233,680
)
Discontinued operations
(1,020
)
—
(1,020
)
—
Net loss attributable to common stockholders
$
(111,580
)
$
(53,076
)
$
(250,263
)
$
(233,680
)
Basic and diluted net loss per share attributable to common stockholders
Continuing operations
$
(0.39
)
$
(0.24
)
$
(0.91
)
$
(1.16
)
Discontinued operations
—
—
—
—
Basic and diluted net loss per share attributable to common stockholders
$
(0.39
)
$
(0.24
)
$
(0.91
)
$
(1.16
)
Basic and diluted weighted average number of shares outstanding
285,651,622
222,454,578
275,194,755
201,194,451
(1) Includes related party selling, general and administrative expense of $0.1 million for each of the three months ended May 31, 2026 and May 31, 2025, respectively, and $0.3 million for each of the fiscal years ended May 31, 2026 and May 31, 2025, respectively.
(2) For the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026, amount includes a loss on classification of held for sale of $59.7 million representing the write down of our cloud services business' (the "Cloud Services Business") assets to their carrying value as of February 15, 2026 when it no longer qualified as held for sale. For the fiscal year ended May 31, 2025, amount includes $25.0 million received in connection with the sale of our Garden City facility once conditional approval requirements were met and escrowed funds were released.
(3) For the three months and fiscal year ended May 31, 2026, amount includes related party income of $0.1 million.
APPLIED DIGITAL CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows (In thousands)
Fiscal Year Ended
May 31, 2026
May 31, 2025
CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES
Net loss
$
(184,339
)
$
(231,065
)
Adjustments to reconcile net loss to net cash provided by (used in) operating activities:
Depreciation and amortization
67,387
97,945
Stock-based compensation
220,135
22,704
Lease expense
10,106
31,661
Gain on change in fair value of derivatives
(75,818
)
—
Gain on change in fair value of investments
(10,840
)
—
Loss on extinguishment of debt
—
1,177
Amortization of debt issuance costs
6,323
9,563
Loss (gain) on classification of held for sale
59,650
(24,616
)
Loss on conversion of debt
—
33,612
Loss on change in fair value of debt
—
85,439
Loss on change in fair value of warrants issued
2,212
6,421
Loss on abandonment of assets
2,398
1,138
Changes in operating assets and liabilities:
Accounts receivable
(49,268
)
(2,934
)
Prepaid expenses and other current assets
(36,164
)
(8,309
)
Other assets
(51,483
)
2,979
Customer deposits
627
2,306
Related party customer deposits
—
(1,549
)
Deferred revenue
947
(34,080
)
Related party deferred revenue
—
(1,692
)
Accounts payable
(1,182
)
(78,256
)
Accrued liabilities
106,223
(12,127
)
Due to customer
5,258
(8,195
)
Lease assets and liabilities
17,513
(7,524
)
CASH FLOW PROVIDED BY (USED IN) OPERATING ACTIVITIES
89,685
(115,402
)
CASH FLOW USED IN INVESTING ACTIVITIES
Purchases of property and equipment and other assets
(2,865,765
)
(681,603
)
Proceeds from sale of investments
5,000
—
Proceeds from sale of assets
—
25,000
Finance lease prepayments
—
(6,178
)
Loans to related parties
(58,632
)
—
Purchases of investments
(17,000
)
(4,873
)
CASH FLOW USED IN INVESTING ACTIVITIES
(2,936,397
)
(667,654
)
CASH FLOW PROVIDED BY FINANCING ACTIVITIES
Repayment of finance leases
(99,455
)
(125,073
)
Borrowings of long-term debt
4,955,327
650,083
Repayment of long-term debt
(521,512
)
(293,045
)
Payment of deferred financing costs
(171,885
)
(42,398
)
Tax payments for restricted stock upon vesting
(36,282
)
(4,116
)
Proceeds from issuance of common stock
196,366
191,590
Common stock issuance costs
(5,950
)
(10,305
)
Proceeds from issuance of preferred stock
814,998
198,205
Preferred stock issuance costs
(11,897
)
(13,812
)
Redemption of preferred stock
(1,187
)
(2,615
)
Dividends issued on preferred stock
(6,259
)
—
Issuance of warrants, at fair value
(8,250
)
—
Exercise of warrants
6,265
—
Issuance of warrants by subsidiary
4,451
—
Proceeds from issuance of SAFE agreement included in long-term debt
—
12,000
Repurchase of shares
—
(31,342
)
Proceeds from convertible notes
—
450,000
Purchase of capped call options
—
(51,750
)
Purchase of prepaid forward contract
—
(52,736
)
Redeemable noncontrolling interest contributions
1,825,000
—
Redeemable noncontrolling interest issuance costs
(62,904
)
—
CASH FLOW PROVIDED BY FINANCING ACTIVITIES
$
6,876,826
$
874,686
NET INCREASE (DECREASE) IN CASH, CASH EQUIVALENTS, AND RESTRICTED CASH
$
4,030,114
$
91,630
CASH, CASH EQUIVALENTS, AND RESTRICTED CASH, BEGINNING OF PERIOD, INCLUDING CASH FROM DISCONTINUED OPERATIONS
123,318
31,688
CASH, CASH EQUIVALENTS, AND RESTRICTED CASH, END OF PERIOD, INCLUDING CASH FROM DISCONTINUED OPERATIONS
4,153,432
123,318
Less: CASH, CASH EQUIVALENTS, AND RESTRICTED CASH FROM DISCONTINUED OPERATIONS
2
—
CASH, CASH EQUIVALENTS, AND RESTRICTED CASH FROM CONTINUED OPERATIONS
$
4,153,430
$
123,318
SUPPLEMENTAL DISCLOSURE OF CASH FLOW INFORMATION
Interest paid
$
263,402
$
62,712
Income taxes paid
$
241
$
105
SUPPLEMENTAL DISCLOSURE OF NON-CASH ACTIVITIES
Operating right-of-use assets obtained by lease obligation
$
—
$
20,280
Finance right-of-use assets obtained by lease obligation
$
25,214
$
113,674
Property and equipment in accounts payable and accrued liabilities
$
556,446
$
246,472
Conversion of debt to common stock
$
—
$
104,945
Conversion of preferred stock to common stock
$
875,185
$
48,350
Consideration for guarantee of an affiliate's obligations
$
2,000
$
—
Issuance of warrants, at fair value
$
104,705
$
136,292
Cashless exercise of warrants
$
1
$
5
Non-cash dividends paid in-kind
$
62,726
$
—
Acquisition of ChronoScale
$
18,110
$
—
APPLIED DIGITAL CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures
(Unaudited)
(In thousands, except percentage data)
Three Months Ended
Fiscal Year Ended
May 31, 2026
May 31, 2025
May 31, 2026
May 31, 2025
Adjusted Revenue
Total revenue (GAAP)
$
258,748
$
51,076
$
611,311
$
228,569
ChronoScale revenue
(18,396
)
(13,063
)
(71,604
)
(84,376
)
Adjusted revenue (Non-GAAP)
$
240,352
$
38,013
$
539,707
$
144,193
Adjusted operating income (loss)
Operating loss (GAAP)
$
(124,820
)
$
(44,101
)
$
(236,462
)
$
(72,175
)
Operating loss from ChronoScale
12,118
23,402
37,043
55,331
Stock-based compensation
127,845
11,558
219,289
22,492
Non-recurring repair expenses (1)
41
—
322
173
Diligence, acquisition, disposition and integration expenses (2)
7,034
4,908
27,938
17,269
Litigation expenses (3)
307
48
1,179
1,389
Loss on abandonment of assets
55
369
1,799
1,138
Gain on classification of held for sale
—
—
—
(24,616
)
Accelerated depreciation and amortization (4)
—
—
—
45
Restructuring expenses (5)
377
668
1,469
711
Other non-recurring expenses (6)
1,224
69
5,219
627
Adjusted operating income (loss) (Non-GAAP)
$
24,181
$
(3,079
)
$
57,796
$
2,384
Adjusted operating margin
10
%
(8
)%
11
%
2
%
Adjusted net income (loss) from continuing operations attributable to common stockholders
Net loss from continuing operations (GAAP)
$
(81,387
)
$
(52,536
)
$
(183,319
)
$
(231,065
)
Operating loss from ChronoScale
12,118
23,402
37,043
55,331
Interest expense directly attributed to ChronoScale
1,132
3,955
9,583
17,399
Stock-based compensation
127,845
11,558
219,289
22,492
Non-recurring repair expenses (1)
41
—
322
173
Diligence, acquisition, disposition and integration expenses (2)
7,034
4,908
27,938
17,269
Litigation expenses (3)
307
48
1,179
1,389
Loss on abandonment of assets
55
369
1,799
1,138
Gain on classification of held for sale
—
—
—
(24,616
)
Accelerated depreciation and amortization (4)
—
—
—
45
Gain on change in fair value of derivatives
(53,276
)
—
(75,818
)
—
Gain on change in fair value of investments
(4,768
)
—
(10,840
)
—
Loss on conversion of debt
—
—
—
33,612
Loss on change in fair value of debt
—
—
—
85,439
Loss on change in fair value of warrants
2,212
—
2,212
6,421
Loss on extinguishment of debt
—
—
—
1,177
Restructuring expenses (5)
377
668
1,469
711
Other non-recurring expenses (6)
1,224
69
5,219
627
Adjusted net income (loss) from continuing operations (Non-GAAP)
$
12,914
$
(7,559
)
$
36,076
$
(12,458
)
Diluted weighted average number of shares outstanding (Non-GAAP) (7)
330,239,240
222,454,578
318,968,163
201,194,451
Adjusted net income (loss) from continuing operations per diluted share (Non-GAAP)
$
0.04
$
(0.03
)
$
0.11
$
(0.06
)
EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA
Net loss from continuing operations (GAAP)
$
(81,387
)
$
(52,536
)
$
(183,319
)
$
(231,065
)
Operating loss from ChronoScale
12,118
23,402
37,043
55,331
Interest expense, net
10,633
8,451
29,516
32,139
Income tax expense (benefit)
1,766
(16
)
1,787
102
Depreciation and amortization (4)
18,170
4,059
49,433
17,289
EBITDA (Non-GAAP)
$
(38,700
)
$
(16,640
)
$
(65,540
)
$
(126,204
)
Stock-based compensation
127,845
11,558
219,289
22,492
Non-recurring repair expenses (1)
41
—
322
173
Diligence, acquisition, disposition and integration expenses (2)
7,034
4,908
27,938
17,269
Litigation expenses (3)
307
48
1,179
1,389
Gain on classification of held for sale
—
—
—
(24,616
)
Loss on abandonment of assets
55
369
1,799
1,138
Gain on change in fair value of derivatives
(53,276
)
—
(75,818
)
—
Gain on change in fair value of investments
(4,768
)
—
(10,840
)
—
Loss on conversion of debt
—
—
—
33,612
Loss on change in fair value of debt
—
—
—
85,439
Loss on change in fair value of warrants
2,212
—
2,212
6,421
Restructuring expenses (5)
377
668
1,469
711
Other non-recurring expenses (6)
1,224
69
5,219
627
Adjusted EBITDA (Non-GAAP)
$
42,351
$
980
$
107,229
$
19,628
Net Operating Income
HPC Hosting Business base rental revenue (GAAP)
$
44,062
$
—
$
99,811
$
—
Rental property operating expenses
(3,382
)
—
(8,545
)
—
Property taxes
(198
)
—
(198
)
—
Property insurance expenses
(571
)
—
(680
)
—
Net Operating Income (Non-GAAP)
$
39,911
$
—
$
90,388
$
—
Net Operating Income margin
91
%
—
%
91
%
—
%
(1) Represents costs incurred for the non-recurring repair and replacement of equipment at our data center facilities.
(2) Represents legal, accounting and consulting costs incurred in association with certain discrete transactions and projects.
(3) Represents non-recurring litigation expense associated with our defense of class action lawsuits and legal fees related to matters with certain former employees. We do not expect to incur these expenses on a regular basis.
(4) Represents the acceleration of expense related to assets that were abandoned by us due to operational failure or other reasons. Depreciation and amortization in this amount is included in Depreciation and Amortization expense within our calculation of EBITDA, and therefore is not added back as a management adjustment in our calculation of Adjusted EBITDA.
(5) Represents non-recurring expenses associated with employee separations.
(6) Represents expenses that are not representative of our expected ongoing costs.
(7) Potentially dilutive securities or other contracts to issue common stock are only included for each period if the effect is dilutive to Adjusted net income (loss) from continuing operations per diluted share.
Source: Applied Digital Corporation
Released July 27, 2026
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霍尔木兹确认事故累计62起
重要性5/5 高
官方确认的霍尔木兹航运事故累计与最新事件直接关联航运和能源运输风险。
中文摘要
核心结论
国际海事组织截至07/27确认，霍尔木兹海峡及中东地区累计62起航运事故，造成17名海员死亡。最新条目显示，07/24液化石油气船LAVINE受损但未发生污染；07/20 KAIFAN在阿曼利马东北8海里受损、被弃置，2名海员受伤。
重要性评级
评级：5/5（高）
该组织的确认事故清单直接对应HORMUZ（霍尔木兹海峡航运风险），事故累计、地点和人员伤亡对区域航运与能源运输风险有高时效价值。
关键事实
- 国际海事组织确认的统计截至07/27（未给出具体时刻）。
- 霍尔木兹海峡及中东地区累计62起确认事故，17名海员死亡。
- 07/24，悬挂莫桑比克假旗的液化石油气船LAVINE受损，记录称未发生污染。
- 07/20，KAIFAN在阿曼利马东北8海里处受损并被弃置，2名海员受伤。
- 07/19，ACHELOOS在阿联酋迪巴以东17海里处受损；KAVOMALEAS在阿曼昆扎尔西北8海里处受损并被弃置。
- 07/14，AL BAHYAH在阿曼海岸13海里处受损，1名海员死亡、3人受伤；MOMBASA B同日受损并被弃置，11名海员受伤。
- 清单还记录了多艘在阿曼、阿联酋、伊朗、卡塔尔、伊拉克和沙特近海受损、被扣留或被扣押的船舶。
作者观点与证据
文章为国际海事组织的“已确认”事故清单，证据价值集中于逐船、逐地记录的事故、伤亡和污染状态。它不评估事故原因、责任主体、通行量、运费、保险费率或油价影响。
与相关标的的关系
HORMUZ直接对应霍尔木兹海峡及邻近水域的航运安全状况。62起确认事故和17人死亡说明该水域的实体运输风险仍在持续，具体市场影响需结合船舶通行、运价和能源流量资料判断。
时效性与限制（仅在有新增信息时）
统计截至07/27（未给出具体时刻），07/24为清单中的最新事故日期。该资料为事故台账，未提供事件发生后的营运恢复、货运绕行或经济损失数据。
后续跟踪
- 确认事故数与伤亡数是否继续上升。
- 液化天然气、原油和成品油船舶事故的类型与地点。
- 船舶被弃置、扣留或扣押后的状态更新。
- 通行量、保险费率和港口运行的独立数据。
英文原文
Middle East - Highlighted (Confirmed) incidents
Highlighted (confirmed) incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East.
- Number of confirmed incidents as at 27 July 2026: 62
- Number of confirmed seafarer fatalities: 17
Date
Ship Name (IMO Number) Location D escription
24 July LAVINE (IMO 8818219) LPG Tanker, Mozambique (False Flag) Damaged. No pollution.
20 July KAIFAN (IMO 9656046) 8NM northeast of Limah, Oman Damaged. Abandoned. Two seafarers injured.
19 July ACHELOOS (IMO 1087524) 17NM east of Dibba, UAE Damaged. No pollution.
19 July KAVOMALEAS (IMO 1042823) 8NM northwest of Kumzar, Oman Damaged. No pollution. Abandoned.
16 July IDI (IMO 9307982) 19NM east of Khasab, Oman Damaged. No pollution.
15 July BELMA (IMO 9289491) IVO Bushehr Province, Persian Gulf Damaged. No pollution.
14 July AL BAHYAH (IMO 9937799) 13 NM from the coast of Oman Damaged. No pollution. One seafarer fatality. Three seafarers injured.
14 July MOMBASA B (IMO 9739501) 13 NM from the coast of Oman Damaged. No pollution. Abandoned. Eleven seafarers injured.
13 July STOLT MAGNESIUM (IMO 9739317) 40 NM from the coast of Oman Damaged. No pollution.
11 July GFS GALAXY (IMO 9401271) 9NM east of Oman Damaged. No pollution. One seafarer fatality.
7 July CYPRUS PROSPERITY(IMO 9595216) 6NM east of Musandam Peninsula, Oman Damaged. No pollution. No injuries.
6 July WEDYAN (IMO 9524970) 16NM east of Khor Fakkan, UAE Damaged. No pollution. No injuries.
6 July AL REKAYYAT (IMO 9397339) 8NM east of Limah, Oman Damaged. No Pollution
27 June KIKU (IMO 9329796) 8NM off Oman Damaged. No Pollution.
25 June EVER LOVELY (IMO 9629110) 7.5NM southeast of Dahit, Oman Damaged. No pollution. No injuries.
12 June BOCHEM MARENGO (IMO 9749025) 6NM east of Oman Damaged. No pollution. No injuries.
10 June JALVEER (IMO 9486283) 21 NM northeast of Sohar, Oman Damaged. Abandoned. No pollution
9 June SETTEBELLO (IMO 9162916) 25 NM east of Shinas, Oman Damaged. Abandoned. Three seafarer fatalities.
8 June MARIVEX (IMO 9464156) 21NM northeast of Masirah Island, Oman Damaged. No pollution. Abandoned. No injuries.
2 June LEXIE (IMO 9203277) Near Strait of Hormuz Damaged. No pollution.
1 June MSC SARISKA V (IMO 8715857) 40NM southeast of Umm Qasr, Iraq Damaged. No pollution. No injuries.
29 May LIAN STAR (IMO 9072692) Gulf of Oman Damaged. No pollution.
26 May OLYMPIC LIFE (IMO 9844277) 60NM east of Muscat, Oman Damaged. Pollution (limited bunker fuel discharge). No injuries.
10 May SAFESEA NEHA (IMO 9563392) 23NM northeast of Doha, Qatar Damaged. No pollution. No injuries.
8 May SEVDA (IMO 9172040) Gulf of Oman Damaged. No pollution. No injuries.
8 May SEA STAR III (IMO 9569205) Gulf of Oman Damaged. No pollution. No injuries.
6 May HASNA (IMO 9212917) Gulf of Oman Damaged. No pollution. No injuries.
5 May CMA CGM SAN ANTONIO (IMO 9294173) 30 NM northeast of Dibba Al-Fujairah, UAE Damaged. No pollution. Eight seafarers injured.
4 May HMM NAMU (IMO 1039292) 36NM North of Dubai, UAE Damaged. No pollution. One seafarer injured.
4 May JV INNOVATION (IMO 9276688) 15NM northwest of Ras Al-Khaimah, UAE Damaged. Pollution. No injuries.
3 May TMO BARAKAH (IMO 9902615) 78NM north of Fujairah, UAE Damaged. No pollution. Vessel abandoned. No injuries
3 May MINOAN FALCON (IMO 9605841) 11NM west of Sirik, Islamic Republic of Iran Damaged. No pollution. No injuries.
2 May VOLANS (IMO 9298856) / BADR (BARGE) 32NM northeast of Dibba Al-Fujairah, UAE Damaged (Badr - Barge). No pollution. One seafarer fatality.
22 April EUPHORIA (IMO 9235828) 8NM west of Islamic Republic of Iran Minor damage. No pollution. No injuries.
22 April MSC FRANCESCA (IMO 9401116) 15NM northeast of Oman Damaged. No pollution. No injuries. Vessel detained.
22 April EPAMINONDAS (IMO 9153862) 15NM northeast of Oman Damaged. No pollution. No injuries. Vessel detained.
19 April TOUSKA (IMO 9328900) 45 NM southeast of Chabahar, Islamic Republic of Iran Damaged. No pollution. No injuries. Vessel seized.
18 April CMA CGM EVERGLADE (IMO 9894985) 22NM North of Kumzar, Oman Damaged. No pollution. No injuries.
18 April SANMAR HERALD (IMO 9330563) 19NM North of Kumzar, Oman Damaged. No pollution. No injuries.
7 April GOLD AUTUMN (IMO 9220483) 112NM southeast of Ras Al Damaged. No pollution. No injuries.
7 April QINGDAO STAR (IMO 9318163) 25NM south of Kish Island, Islamic Republic of Iran Damaged. No pollution. No injuries.
1 April AQUA 1 (IMO 9573660) 17NM north of Ras Laffan, Qatar Damaged. No pollution. No injuries.
30 March AL SALMI (IMO 9534793) 31NM NW of Dubai, UAE Damaged. No pollution. No injuries.
28 March SUNNY 77 (IMO 8357368) Near Duqm, Oman Damaged. No pollution. No injuries.
19 March HALUL 50 (IMO 9602796) 4NM east of Ras Laffan, Qatar Damaged. No pollution. No injuries.
16 March GAS AL AHMADIAH (IMO 9849629) 23NM east of Fujairah, UAE Damaged. No pollution. No injuries.
12 March SOURCE BLESSING (IMO 9243198) 35NM north of Jebel Ali, UAE Damaged. No pollution. No injuries.
11 March ZEFYROS (IMO 9515917) Near Khor Al Zubair Port, Iraq Attack on SAFESEA VISHNU caused collateral damage (fire). No injuries.
11 March SAFESEA VISHNU (IMO 9327009) Near Khor Al Zubair Port, Iraq Impact caused fire. One seafarer fatality.
11 March STAR GWYNETH (IMO 9301031) 50NM northwest of Dubai Damage to cargo holds and forecastle. No injuries.
11 March MAYUREE NAREE (IMO 9323649) 11NM north of Oman Fire on board. Three seafarer fatalities.
11 March ONE MAJESTY (IMO 9424912) 25NM northwest of Ra’s al Khaymah, UAE Hull damage. No injuries.
7 March ARABIA III (IMO 8771332) Al Jubayl, Saudi Arabia Damanged. No pollution. One seafarer injured.
6 March MUSSAFAH 2 (IMO 9522051) 6NM north of Oman Four seafarer fatalities. Three severely injured.
5 March SONANGOL NAMIBE (IMO 9325049) 30NM southeast of Mubarak Al Kabeer, Kuwait Hull breach. No injuries.
4 March SAFEEN PRESTIGE (IMO 9593517) 2NM north of Oman Sunk. Oil slick detected. No injuries.
3 March GOLD OAK (IMO 9806342) 7NM east of Fujairah, UAE Steel plating damage. No injuries.
3 March LIBRA TRADER (IMO 9562673) 10NM east of Fujairah, UAE Minor damage. No injuries.
1 March STENA IMPERATIVE (IMO 9666077) At Berth, Port of Bahrain One shipyard worker fatality. Two shipyard workers seriously injured.
1 March HERCULES STAR (IMO 9916135) 17 NM northwest of Mina Saqr, UAE Fire on board. No injuries.
1 March MKD VYOM (IMO 9284386) 52 NM northwest of Muscat, Oman One seafarer fatality.
1 March SKYLIGHT (IMO 9330020) 5 NM North of Khasab, Oman Four seafarers injured. Two seafarer fatalities.
存储基金回撤后的资金黏性
重要性4/5 中高
直接关联DRAM及存储主题资金结构，但证据以播客讨论为主。
中文摘要
核心结论
ETF.com播客讨论认为，DRAM（Roundhill Memory ETF，圆桌存储交易所交易基金）经历约40%回撤后资产规模仍接近250亿美元高点，市场仍在围绕高带宽存储能否改变存储芯片周期进行博弈。
重要性评级
评级：4/5（中高）。文章直接涉及DRAM的回撤、资产规模和主题资金叙事，但核心证据来自播客嘉宾讨论，未附完整资金流序列。
关键事实
- DRAM提供对三星电子和SK海力士的敞口，文章称其资金流入达到100亿美元的速度快于IBIT（现货比特币交易所交易基金）。
- 该基金价格回撤约40%，资产仍接近250亿美元高点。
- 嘉宾讨论的关键命题是高带宽存储需求是否削弱传统存储行业的景气循环。
- 文中以美光约5倍远期市盈率作为估值讨论的例子。
- 节目还提及杠杆交易所交易基金、加密货币兴趣减弱和国际投资，但未给出系统数据。
作者观点与证据
文章呈现播客主持人与分析师的观点，将资产规模黏性视为投资者仍认可存储主题的迹象。它未提供DRAM逐日申赎、持仓变化或美光盈利预测，无法单独验证资金黏性及周期变化。
与相关标的的关系
DRAM为直接标的，三星电子、SKHY（SK海力士）是其主题敞口来源。IBIT和BTC-USD仅作为资金流入速度及风险资产兴趣的对照。
时效性与限制（仅在有新增信息时）
发布于美东时间 07/30 22:10（UTC+8 07/31 10:10）。内容是访谈摘要，未披露统计口径和完整资金流时间序列。
后续跟踪
- DRAM资产规模与净申赎的实际变化。
- 三星电子、SK海力士和美光的存储订单与定价。
- 高带宽存储供需及资本开支。
- 基金集中度和成分股权重。
英文原文
Even the DRAM Bears Are Committed to the Ride
Even the DRAM Bears Are Committed to the Ride
ETF Zoo Podcast
Fri, July 31, 2026 at 11:10 AM GMT+9 1 min read
- IBIT
+1.94%
- 005930.KS
+26.81%
- SKHY
+17.52%
- DRAM
+16.70%
- BTC-USD
-1.94%
Dave Nadig, Sumit Roy, Eric Balchunas, and Tony Dong talk alongside a chart of DRAM flows It's been a wild ride for investors of the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) , and it may not be over yet. ETF.com hosts Dave Nadig, President & Director of Research, and Sumit Roy, Senior ETF Analyst are joined in this episode of ETF Zoo by Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Tony Dong, CETF, Lead ETF Analyst at ETF Central to dig into the fund's performance and flows this year.
The ETF Zoo crew digs into the wild ride of the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) , which nailed its timing by giving investors rare access to Samsung and SK Hynix, and shattered inflow records even faster than IBIT did. Despite a brutal 40% price drawdown, assets have stayed remarkably sticky near their $25 billion high-water mark, It's a stark contrast to how quickly gold or Bitcoin investors have historically bailed during downturns. The real debate fueling continued inflows is whether high-bandwidth memory has permanently broken the industry's boom-bust cycle, and whether Micron, trading at just 5x forward earnings, is still dirt cheap if that thesis holds.
To watch the full episode that covers leveraged ETF popularity and gains, waning interest in crypto, and international investing potential, go here .
Permalink | © Copyright 2026 etf.com. All rights reserved
磷化铟扩产连接光模块需求
重要性4/5 中高
COHR上游供货、订单和产能数据齐备，但部分内容为前瞻性管理层口径。
中文摘要
核心结论
AXT二季度业绩显示人工智能数据中心光互连所需磷化铟基板需求强劲；其与COHR（Coherent，光通信器件公司）签订长期供货协议并扩产，构成上游材料对光模块供应链的新增事实。
重要性评级
评级：4/5（中高）。文章给出AXT业绩、COHR预付款、积压订单和扩产目标，关联路径明确；内容为业绩电话会整理，部分前瞻指标仍待执行。
关键事实
- AXT二季度营收4760万美元，同比增164%，环比增近77%；非公认会计准则净利润1190万美元，每股0.19美元。
- 磷化铟基板收入3070万美元，主要用于数据中心光连接；积压订单超过1亿美元。
- AXT与Casela、COHR和Lumentum签订长期供货安排；COHR预付款2540万美元，发货后才确认收入。
- 公司计划于2026年底将磷化铟季度收入产能提升至约6000万美元，2027年底约1.30亿美元。
- 公司称约6600万美元第三季度收入已获许可或无需出口许可；其余订单兑现仍取决于许可证时点。
作者观点与证据
文章将创纪录营收和产能扩张归于人工智能光互连需求，主要依据公司管理层和业绩电话会。预付款、积压订单和产能目标不等同于已确认收入，且中国相关许可是实际交付的限制。
与相关标的的关系
COHR通过长期供货协议和2540万美元预付款直接关联AXT的磷化铟供应。文章支持光互连上游需求观察，未披露COHR的采购量、价格或其产品毛利影响。
时效性与限制（仅在有新增信息时）
发布于美东时间 07/30 18:04（UTC+8 07/31 06:04）。第三季度指引和扩产均为公司前瞻表述，出口许可与客户提货存在执行不确定性。
后续跟踪
- COHR与其他客户的实际提货及预付款收入确认。
- 磷化铟积压订单的交付节奏。
- 2026至2027年产能建设与良率。
- 中国出口许可和地区收入结构。
英文原文
AXT Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
AXT Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
AXT logo
MarketBeat
Fri, July 31, 2026 at 7:04 AM GMT+9 7 min read
- AXTI
+26.97%
- COHR
+12.16%
Key Points
- Interested in AXT Inc? Here are five stocks we like better.
- Record results: AXT's second-quarter revenue surged 164% year over year to $47.6 million, driven by indium phosphide substrates for AI data-center optical connectivity. The company returned to profitability, reporting non-GAAP net income of $11.9 million, or $0.19 per share.
- Demand is outpacing supply: Indium phosphide backlog exceeded $100 million, while long-term agreements with Casela, Coherent and Lumentum are expected to support growth through 2027 and beyond. AXT plans to expand quarterly indium phosphide capacity to roughly $60 million by the end of 2026 and approximately $130 million by the end of 2027.
- Strong outlook: AXT forecast third-quarter non-GAAP earnings of $0.30–$0.32 per share, supported by about $66 million in revenue that is already permitted or does not require export permits. The company also shifted Tongmei's planned listing from China's STAR Market to Hong Kong.
- 3 Under-The-Radar Small Caps Making New All-Time Highs
AXT (NASDAQ:AXTI) reported record second-quarter revenue and a return to profitability, driven by strong demand for indium phosphide substrates used in optical connectivity for AI data centers. Management said it is accelerating capacity expansion as customer demand continues to exceed supply.
Second-quarter revenue totaled $47.6 million, up nearly 77% from $26.9 million in the first quarter and 164% from $18.0 million in the year-earlier period. Chief Financial Officer Gary Fischer said the result marked the highest quarterly revenue in the company's history.
→ Why SK hynix Could Be the Best AI Chip Stock to Buy Now
Indium phosphide revenue reached a record $30.7 million, primarily tied to data center applications. Gallium arsenide revenue was $6.6 million, germanium substrate revenue was $272,000, and the company's consolidated raw-material joint ventures generated $10.0 million in revenue. AXT said its five largest customers accounted for about 30% of total revenue, with no individual customer representing more than 10%.
Margins and Earnings Improve Sharply
Non-GAAP gross margin increased to 45.0% in the second quarter, from 29.9% in the prior quarter and 8.2% a year earlier. GAAP gross margin was 44.9%, compared with 29.6% in the first quarter and 8.0% in the second quarter of 2025. Fischer attributed the improvement primarily to higher volume and a favorable product mix.
→ Carrier Earnings Could Send the Stock to a New All-Time High
Non-GAAP operating profit was $11.2 million, compared with an operating loss of $550,000 in the first quarter and a $6.1 million operating loss a year ago. On a GAAP basis, operating profit was $10.4 million.
Story Continues
AXT posted non-GAAP net income of $11.9 million, or $0.19 per diluted share, reversing a non-GAAP loss of $585,000, or $0.01 per share, in the first quarter. GAAP net income was $11.1 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, compared with a GAAP net loss of $1.6 million in the preceding quarter.
→ 5 AI Stocks Are Pulling Back—Which Growth Catalysts Still Look Strongest?
Cash, cash equivalents and investments rose to $748.8 million as of June 30, from $123 million at the end of March. The increase was primarily related to a secondary public offering that closed April 22 and generated about $632 million before expenses.
Long-Term Supply Agreements Support Expansion
During the quarter, AXT signed long-term supply agreements with Casela and Coherent. The company received prepayments of $22.3 million and $25.4 million, respectively, under those agreements. The prepayments are recorded as liabilities and will be recognized as revenue as products are shipped.
Chief Executive Officer Dr. Morris Young said AXT also announced an agreement with Lumentum during the week of the call. Management did not disclose the total revenue opportunity associated with the Lumentum agreement. Executives said the recently announced supply arrangements are expected to have a larger impact in the third quarter and beyond, while the Casela agreement is not scheduled to begin under its contract terms until 2027.
Young said the company's indium phosphide backlog is "well over $100 million" and continues to grow despite higher shipment volumes. Management declined to provide a more specific figure, saying it is limiting orders to those it believes it can support with planned production capacity. The company said backlog and long-term supply agreements extend into 2027 and beyond.
Capacity Targets Increase as AI Demand Builds
Management said it is ahead of schedule on its plans to double indium phosphide capacity in 2026. In response to analyst questions, executives said they expect to exit 2026 with quarterly indium phosphide capacity of roughly $60 million, and anticipate more than doubling that level again during 2027 to approximately $130 million in quarterly revenue capacity by year-end.
Young said the expansion is being supported by faster capacity additions, higher manufacturing productivity from new crystal-growth furnace designs, and customers' migration toward larger-diameter and higher-value substrates. AXT is also developing six-inch indium phosphide capabilities, which Young described as substantially more difficult to produce in volume than three-inch and four-inch wafers.
The company said it is planning an additional capacity expansion at an adjacent location for 2027. Young said demand is moving faster than AXT's own capacity expansion, and the company could pursue more than its currently planned doubling of capacity next year depending on business conditions.
Management said much of the higher capacity is expected to come through productivity gains and product mix, rather than requiring materially higher capital expenditures beyond previously discussed plans.
China, Permits and Tongmei Listing Plans
AXT said revenue related to indium phosphide-based lasers in China more than doubled sequentially in the second quarter and is expected to continue growing in the third quarter. The company noted that shipments within China do not require export permits. Management said China represented more than 50% of revenue in the second quarter and suggested its longer-term revenue mix could fall in a 40% to 60% range between China and the rest of the world.
Fischer said AXT has approximately $66 million in third-quarter revenue across substrates and raw materials for which it either already has a permit to ship or does not need an export permit. The company said it has a high degree of confidence in recognizing that revenue, while cautioning that additional upside depends on the timing and receipt of permits for other orders.
AXT and its Tongmei subsidiary withdrew their planned STAR Market IPO application, which had been accepted in July, and will instead pursue a Hong Kong listing that management expects could take about a year. Fischer said private-equity investors that invested $49 million in 2021 have redemption rights following the change, but currently wish to maintain their investments.
For the third quarter, AXT expects non-GAAP operating expenses of about $10.5 million and GAAP operating expenses of about $11 million. The company forecast non-GAAP net income of $0.30 to $0.32 per share and GAAP net income of $0.29 to $0.31 per share, based on an estimated 66.5 million shares outstanding.
About AXT (NASDAQ:AXTI)
AXT, Inc (NASDAQ: AXTI) is a global supplier of compound and single-element semiconductor substrates, offering a range of materials critical for high-performance electronic and optoelectronic devices. Founded in 1986 and headquartered in Fremont, California, AXT specializes in the development, manufacture and distribution of wafers composed of gallium arsenide (GaAs), indium phosphide (InP), gallium nitride (GaN) and other compound semiconductor materials. These substrates serve as the foundational platforms for devices used in data communications, wireless infrastructure, advanced computing, consumer electronics and photovoltaic applications.
AXT's product portfolio encompasses a variety of wafer sizes, dopant concentrations and crystal orientations, tailored to meet the precise specifications of its customers.
This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to contact@marketbeat.com.
The article " AXT Q2 Earnings Call Highlights " was originally published by MarketBeat.
View MarketBeat's top stocks for July 2026 .
Circle供给预测下修
重要性4/5 中高
直接覆盖CRCL业绩前的核心规模和收入预期变化，但证据是单一分析师模型。
中文摘要
核心结论
Bernstein在CRCL（Circle，USDC发行方）08/05二季度业绩前将目标价从190美元下调至140美元，并下调中期USDC供给和储备收入预测；该机构仍维持跑赢大盘评级。
重要性评级
评级：4/5（中高）。文章直接涉及CRCL、USDC规模、储备收入预测和临近业绩日的卖方观点，但并非公司正式业绩披露。
关键事实
- Circle计划于08/05公布2026年第二季度业绩。
- Bernstein将CRCL目标价从190美元下调25%至140美元，维持跑赢大盘评级。
- USDC二季度末供给约730亿美元，低于一季度末约770亿美元；季度平均供给由约750亿美元升至760亿美元。
- Bernstein将2028年USDC供给预测从2900亿美元下调至1700亿美元，理由是加密市场走弱。
- 该机构将2026、2027和2028年储备收入预测分别下调约17%、18%和13%。
- 文章称Circle近期收购IBM区块链专利组合，涵盖680多个专利家族和近1000项已授权专利。
作者观点与证据
文章转述Bernstein的模型调整，近端供给数据来自其估计，长期规模、储备收益和目标价均依赖分析师假设。公司业绩、储备构成和合作渠道的实际披露仍是验证基础。
与相关标的的关系
CRCL为直接标的，USDC-USD反映其核心稳定币规模。IBM仅因专利组合收购被提及，文章未量化该交易的财务影响。
时效性与限制（仅在有新增信息时）
发布于美东时间 07/30 09:59（UTC+8 07/30 21:59），紧邻08/05业绩。目标价与供给预测属于单一卖方机构观点，不代表公司指引或市场共识。
后续跟踪
- Circle二季度实际收入、储备收入和平均USDC供给。
- USDC供给变化及其地区、渠道构成。
- 储备收益率和利率环境。
- 支付、金融服务和代币化合作进展。
英文原文
Analyst cuts Circle stock price target ahead of earnings
Analyst cuts Circle stock price target ahead of earnings
Analyst cuts Circle stock price target ahead of earnings · TheStreet
Anand Sinha
Thu, July 30, 2026 at 10:59 PM GMT+9 1 min read
- CRCL
+4.69%
- IBM
-2.08%
- USDC-USD
-0.00%
Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) is a popular cryptocurrency firm that is best known for its USDC stablecoin . It recently acquired IBM's blockchain patent portfolio, adding more than 680 patent families and nearly 1,000 issued patents worldwide to its intellectual property.
The company is set to report its financial results for the second quarter of 2026 on Aug. 5.
Related: Explained: What is a stablecoin?
Analyst cuts Circle stock target by 25%
Ahead of the earnings, Bernstein lowered its price target on the Circle stock by 25% from $190 to $140.
USDC supply ended Q2 2026 at approximately $73 billion, down from $77 billion in Q1. The average supply rose modestly from approximately $75 billion to $76 billion quarter-over-quarter (QoQ).
The firm lowered its USDC supply estimate to reach approximately $170 billion by 2028, down from the previous estimate of $290 billion, adjusting for crypto market weakness.
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The firm maintained a 32% compound annual growth rate in its 10-year USDC growth model but adjusted near-term 2027-28 USDC estimates for native crypto cyclicality. The resulting impact on reserve income is partially offset by higher reserve yields.
Bernstein's USDC reserve income estimate for 2026, 2027, and 2028 declined by around 17%, 18%, and 13%. The firm expects USDC growth to be driven by partnerships in payments, financial services, real-world assets (RWA) tokenization, and its role in the agentic economy.
While Bernstein lowered its price target on the Circle stock to $140, the analyst maintained an Outperform rating.
The CRCL stock closed 4.60% lower at $61.36 on July 29.
Related: Elon Musk warns America will 1,000% go bankrupt and fail as a country
This story was originally published by TheStreet on Jul 30, 2026, where it first appeared in the MARKETS section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
美国制裁马汉航空跨国网络
重要性4/5 高
最新官方制裁行动直接关联IRAN_SANCTIONS及地区物流和金融合规风险，但实际经济影响尚未量化。
中文摘要
核心结论
美国财政部海外资产控制办公室OFAC（美国财政部海外资产控制办公室）于07/30制裁位于中国、印度、俄罗斯和伊朗的6个实体及个人，指其为伊朗马汉航空及伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队IRGC（伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队）提供销售、物流或其他支持。该行动冻结受制裁对象受美国管辖的资产，并提示重大交易可能触发二级制裁风险。
重要性评级
评级：4/5（高）
这是07/30发布的官方制裁行动，直接对应IRAN_SANCTIONS（伊朗制裁风险），涉及中国、印度、俄罗斯与伊朗的物流和金融合规网络；公告未量化其对地区物流或能源流的实际影响。
关键事实
- 公告日期为07/30（未给出具体时刻）。
- OFAC依据第13224号行政命令制裁6个实体及个人。
- 被点名对象包括中国的Shanghai Wings International Logistics、唐鑫、Shanghai Elite International Travel，中国关联的马汉航空销售代理网络；印度的Skiez Travels and Logistics；俄罗斯的Air Cargo Pro；以及革命卫队关联的DadeNegar Startup Studio。
- 美国财政部称Shanghai Wings协调从中国向伊朗运输电子产品，唐鑫协调马汉航空出行并持有Shanghai Elite 50%股权。
- 公告称马汉航空为革命卫队圣城旅人员出行、无人机系统和武器运输提供支持。
- DadeNegar被指通过网站收集美军和以色列装备位置，并接收针对中东美方目标的打击请求。
- 受制裁对象在美国境内或由美国人控制的资产被封锁；美国人通常不得与其进行交易，外国金融机构参与重大交易可能面临二级制裁。
作者观点与证据
美国财政部将相关主体定性为支持马汉航空和革命卫队的网络，并以行政命令说明制裁依据。公告陈述的是美国政府的执法认定，未披露独立审计材料，也未量化物流中断或金融损失。
与相关标的的关系
IRAN_SANCTIONS直接对应本次制裁。行动扩大了与马汉航空、革命卫队及其销售代理相关交易的合规风险，影响路径主要涉及跨境物流、金融机构往来和受制裁名单筛查。
时效性与限制（仅在有新增信息时）
公告发布于07/30（未给出具体时刻）。制裁法律后果由公告明确，但名单对象的实际资产规模、交易中断程度以及对伊朗物流和能源运输的量化影响未披露。
后续跟踪
- 被制裁实体的名单、控制权和关联公司更新。
- 金融机构对二级制裁风险的执行指引。
- 马汉航空航线、货运代理与支付渠道的公开变化。
- 后续美国、欧盟或其他司法辖区的协调制裁行动。
英文原文
Treasury Cracks Down on Global Networks Enabling Iran’s Mahan Air and IRGC
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Press Releases
Treasury Cracks Down on Global Networks Enabling Iran’s Mahan Air and IRGC
July 30, 2026
Mahan Air serves as a critical conduit for the IRGC’s movement of weapons, operatives, and military equipment worldwide.
WASHINGTON— Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is designating six entities and individuals in China, India, Russia, and Iran, including multiple companies serving as general sales agents for the U.S.- and European Union‑sanctioned Iranian airline Mahan Air. Although Mahan Air presents itself as a civilian carrier, it has long played a central role in enabling the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), providing travel services for IRGC‑Qods Force personnel, facilitating military training, and supporting Iran’s procurement and transport of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) systems and weapons.
“Those who provide financial services, logistics, or commercial support to the IRGC or Mahan Air are helping sustain a terrorist enterprise,” said Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent. “Treasury will continue to identify them, expose them, and cut them off from the U.S. financial system.”
By sanctioning entities that help sustain Mahan Air’s global operations, today’s action further disrupts the network underpinning Iran’s destabilizing activities across the region. This action advances Treasury’s efforts to intensify economic pressure on the Iranian regime and the IRGC, particularly in response to its reckless attacks against regional states and commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. OFAC is also sanctioning an IRGC‑affiliated front company that has supported Iran’s kinetic targeting during the ongoing conflict.
OFAC is taking this action pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 13224, as amended, which targets terrorist groups, their supporters, and those who aid acts of terrorism, and in furtherance of the President’s National Security Presidential Memorandum 2 (NSPM-2), which directs the U.S. government to deny the IRGC access to assets and resources that sustain its destabilizing activities. On October 12, 2011 , OFAC designated Mahan Air pursuant to E.O. 13224 for providing financial, material, and technological support to Iran’s IRGC-Qods Force (IRGC-QF), which OFAC designated pursuant to E.O. 13224 in October 2007 for providing material support to multiple terrorist organizations. The U.S. Department of State designated the IRGC itself pursuant to the counterproliferation authority E.O. 13382 in 2007, and OFAC designated the IRGC pursuant to E.O. 13224 in October 2017 for providing support to the IRGC-QF.
GENERAL SALES AGENTS SUPPORTING MAHAN AIR
While it masquerades as a civilian airline, Mahan Air has provided travel services to IRGC-QF personnel for military training, as well as facilitated Iran’s procurement and transport of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) systems and weapons to and from Iran. OFAC is taking action today against persons, including general sales agents, providing support to Mahan Air. A general sales agent provides a given airline with sales and customer support services and communicates with freight forwarders and shippers on the airline’s behalf.
China-based Shanghai Wings International Logistics Co (Shanghai Wings) is serving as a
general sales agent for Mahan Air and has coordinated the transport of electronics from China to Iran. China‑based Tang Xin is the managing director of Shanghai Wings and has coordinated travel for Mahan Air. Tang Xin is the executive director and 50 percent owner of China-based Shanghai Elite International Travel Co (Shanghai Elite), which also represents Mahan Air in China. India-based Skiez Travels and Logistics Private Limited (Skiez Travels) and Russia-based Air Cargo Pro Limited (Air Cargo Pro) also serve as general sales agents for Mahan Air in India and Russia, respectively.
Shanghai Wings, Tang Xin, Skiez Travels, and Air Cargo Pro are being designated pursuant to E.O. 13224, as amended, for having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of, Mahan Air. Shanghai Elite is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13224, as amended, for being owned, controlled, or directed by, or having acted or purported to act for on behalf of, directly or indirectly, Tang Xin.
IRGC-AFFILIATED FRONT COMPANY
Today, OFAC is also designating DadeNegar Startup Studio (DadeNegar). DadeNegar is a front company affiliated with Iran’s IRGC, supporting military targeting through the use of a website. DadeNegar solicited locations of American and Israeli equipment to support Iranian military targeting. In coordination with the IRGC, DadeNegar received strike requests for U.S. targets in the Middle East.
DadeNegar is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13224, as amended, for having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods and services to or in support of, the IRGC.
SANCTIONS IMPLICATIONS
As a result of today’s action, all property and interests in property of the designated or blocked persons described above that are in the United States or in the possession or control of U.S. persons are blocked and must be reported to OFAC. In addition, any entities that are owned, directly or indirectly, individually or in the aggregate, 50 percent or more by one or more blocked persons are also blocked. Unless authorized by OFAC, or exempt, OFAC’s regulations generally prohibit all transactions by U.S. persons or within (or transiting) the United States that involve any property or interests in property of blocked persons.
Violations of U.S. sanctions may result in the imposition of civil or criminal penalties on U.S. and foreign persons. OFAC may impose civil penalties for sanctions violations on a strict liability basis. OFAC’s Economic Sanctions Enforcement Guidelines provide more information regarding OFAC’s enforcement of U.S. economic sanctions. In addition, financial institutions and other persons may risk exposure to sanctions for engaging in certain transactions or activities involving designated or otherwise blocked persons. The prohibitions include the making of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services by, to, or for the benefit of any designated or blocked person, or the receipt of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services from any such person. Non-U.S. persons are also prohibited from causing or conspiring to cause U.S. persons to wittingly or unwittingly violate U.S. sanctions, as well as engaging in conduct that evades U.S. sanctions. Individuals located in the U.S. or abroad who provide information about sanctions violations to FinCEN’s whistleblower incentive program may be eligible for awards if the information they provide leads to a successful enforcement action that results in monetary penalties exceeding $1,000,000. In addition, financial institutions and other persons may risk exposure to sanctions for engaging in certain transactions or activities with designated or otherwise blocked persons.
Furthermore, engaging in certain transactions involving the persons designated today may risk the imposition of secondary sanctions on participating foreign financial institutions. OFAC can prohibit or impose strict conditions on opening or maintaining, in the United States, a correspondent account or a payable-through account of a foreign financial institution that knowingly conducts or facilitates any significant transaction on behalf of a person who is designated pursuant to the relevant authority.
The power and integrity of OFAC sanctions derive not only from OFAC’s ability to designate and add persons to the SDN List, but also from its willingness to remove persons from the SDN List consistent with the law. The ultimate goal of sanctions is not to punish, but to bring about a positive change in behavior. For information concerning the process for seeking removal from an OFAC list, including the SDN List, or to submit a request, please refer to OFAC’s guidance on Filing a Petition for Removal from an OFAC List .
Click here for more information on the persons designated today .
###
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康宁指引落差的光互连边界
重要性4/5 中高
为COHR提供相邻供应链的最新需求读数，并清楚保留可比边界。
中文摘要
核心结论
康宁光通信业务保持增长，但其第三季度销售指引略低于市场预期后股价下跌逾20%。文章认为这可作为COHR（Coherent，光通信器件公司）人工智能光互连部署节奏的部分旁证，不能据此推断COHR的份额、定价或利润率。
重要性评级
评级：4/5（中高）。文章直接连接COHR与GLW（康宁）所在的光互连链条，且给出两家公司业务差异；论证主要为作者分析，需与COHR自身业绩交叉验证。
关键事实
- GLW二季度核心销售额47.4亿美元，同比增长17%；核心每股收益0.78美元，同比增长30%。
- 光通信销售额20.7亿美元，同比增长32%；企业网络业务增长65%。
- GLW预计第三季度核心销售额49亿至50亿美元，同比增长约16%，略低于市场预期；光通信增速由一季度36%降至二季度32%。
- 报道称GLW在07/28业绩后股价下跌逾20%，此前年内累计上涨约64%。
- COHR截至03/31季度营收18.1亿美元，同比增长21%，公认会计准则毛利率37.7%，并提及1.6T收发模块、激光器和光电探测器。
作者观点与证据
作者将GLW的光纤、线缆和连接器需求与COHR的主动器件、800G和1.6T模块需求联系起来。该联系有产业链基础，但两者客户结构、主动器件含量、定价和制造良率不同，GLW指引不能证明COHR经营转弱。
与相关标的的关系
COHR为直接相关标的，GLW提供被动光互连环节的需求读数。GLW截至07/15的空头头寸占流通股2.23%，对07/28业绩后下跌的解释力有限。
时效性与限制（仅在有新增信息时）
发布于美东时间 07/29 11:11（UTC+8 07/29 23:11）。文章引用的COHR季度截至03/31，时间上早于GLW最新指引。
后续跟踪
- COHR下一季度的数据中心通信收入和订单。
- GLW企业网络与光通信增速。
- 800G、1.6T模块的交付和价格。
- 两家公司客户资本开支变化。
英文原文
Corning (GLW) Crashed 20% Despite 32% Optical Growth. Should Coherent (COHR) Investors Worry?
Corning (GLW) Crashed 20% Despite 32% Optical Growth. Should Coherent (COHR) Investors Worry?
Habib Ur Rehman
Thu, July 30, 2026 at 12:11 AM GMT+9 3 min read
- COHR
+12.16%
- GLW
+9.00%
Corning Incorporated (NYSE: GLW ) delivered rapid optical growth on July 28, then suffered a share-price decline of more than 20% after its guidance fell short of elevated expectations. Coherent Corp. (NYSE: COHR ) also traded sharply lower. Coherent belongs in this story for a specific reason: the two companies monetize different components of the same AI data-center links.
Corning Incorporated (NYSE:GLW) supplies the passive layer, including optical fiber, cable and dense connector systems. Coherent supplies active devices and modules, including lasers, photodiodes and 800G and 1.6T transceivers that convert electrical signals into light and back again. As clusters add accelerators, network builders need both more fiber paths and faster optical endpoints. Corning's order pace can therefore provide a partial read-through on the volume and timing of deployments that create transceiver demand for Coherent Corp. (NYSE:COHR). It cannot establish Coherent's market share, pricing or margins.
Corning (GLW) Crashed 20% Despite 32% Optical Growth. Should Coherent (COHR) Investors Worry? Corning reported second-quarter core sales of $4.74 billion, up 17% year over year, and core earnings of $0.78 a share, up 30%. Optical Communications sales increased 32% to $2.07 billion. Within that segment, Enterprise Networks grew 65%, and the company said generative-AI product sales grew significantly faster.
The disappointment came from the next quarter. Corning projected $4.9 billion to $5.0 billion of third-quarter core sales, about 16% year-over-year growth but slightly below Wall Street's expectation, according to Reuters. Optical growth also eased from 36% in the first quarter to 32% in the second. Corning had gained roughly 64% in 2026 through the prior close, leaving little room for even modest deceleration.
Coherent's own latest quarter, ended March 31, argues against treating Corning's guidance as proof of weaker Coherent operations. Revenue rose 21% to $1.81 billion, GAAP gross margin reached 37.7%, and management cited exceptionally strong data-center and communications demand while expanding capacity. Its product roadmap includes 1.6T transceivers, lasers and photodiodes for AI networks. Different customer mixes, active-component content and manufacturing yields can make its results diverge from Corning's.
Insider Monkey reported 91 hedge-fund portfolios with GLW long positions at March 31, 2026, up from 85 at December 31, 2025. That positioning preceded the earnings reaction and should not be read as a view on the new guidance.
The data showed 19,125,152 GLW shares sold short on July 15, equal to 2.23% of public float. Corning's latest 10-Q showed no convertible debt or pending stock merger. The low pre-event short float does not indicate a crowded bearish position and offers little basis for a squeeze thesis; it also does not explain the July 28 selloff.
Story Continues
While we acknowledge the risk and potential of GLW and COHR as investments, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than GLW and COHR and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock .
Disclosure: None.
美股事实摘要
- 报价事实：上涨 18 / 下跌 0 / 震荡 0；广度 100.00%；平均较前交易日 +15.47%。
- 公开新闻/财报讨论覆盖：18 / 18 个标的；新闻条目 144 条。
公开数据对照
| 标的 | IBKR 当前价 | K线收盘 | K线来源 | 差异 | 5D | 20D | K线行数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MSFT | 448.96 | 451.10 | Yahoo Finance chart API | -0.47% | +18.22% | +17.39% | 155 |
NVDA | 196.73 | 195.04 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +0.87% | -6.57% | -1.29% | 274 |
MRVL | 193.21 | 183.30 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +5.41% | -12.43% | -32.62% | 155 |
GFS | 52.19 | 49.89 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +4.61% | -12.34% | -35.40% | 155 |
APLD | 29.43 | 27.97 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +5.22% | -6.42% | -21.26% | 155 |
USAR | 15.03 | 14.65 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +2.59% | -3.24% | -26.68% | 155 |
SOXX | 519.76 | 504.53 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +3.02% | -8.47% | -15.87% | 276 |
SOXL | 125.12 | 114.72 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +9.07% | -27.16% | -47.27% | 155 |
FTXL | 226.24 | 217.82 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +3.87% | -9.28% | -18.35% | 276 |
PSI | 142.20 | 134.87 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +5.43% | -11.96% | -22.67% | 276 |
DRAM | 54.22 | 52.34 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +3.59% | -10.22% | -20.53% | 82 |
KMEM | 17.85 | 16.90 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +5.62% | -12.93% | -26.90% | 21 |
VRT | 238.84 | 227.50 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +4.98% | -25.17% | -26.95% | 274 |
COHR | 264.00 | 249.06 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +6.00% | -20.48% | -32.44% | 273 |
CRCL | 62.88 | 64.24 | Yahoo Finance chart API | -2.12% | +3.31% | +3.70% | 272 |
SPCX | 112.89 | 112.20 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +0.61% | -5.11% | -28.78% | 33 |
GOOG | 337.59 | 333.68 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +1.17% | +4.82% | -6.76% | 155 |
NBIS | 204.00 | 188.43 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +8.26% | -14.73% | -17.78% | 155 |
期权链事实
观察标的：MSFT, NVDA, MRVL, GFS, APLD, USAR, SOXX, SOXL, FTXL, PSI, DRAM, KMEM, VRT, COHR, CRCL, SPCX, GOOG, SPY, QQQ, NBIS
来源：Yahoo Finance 公开期权链
覆盖：19 / 20 个观察标的。
| 标的 | ATM IV | Put/Call Vol | Put/Call OI | Max Pain | 最大OI | 期限结构 | Vol/OI异常 | 大单数 | 新闻数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MSFT | 0.20% | 0.36 | 0.61 | 400.00 | C 450.00 (28,661) / P 360.00 (12,975) | 6D 0.20% / 27D 0.10% / 48D 0.10% / 76D 0.10% | 8 | 5 | |
NVDA | 0.03% | 0.53 | 0.74 | 195.00 | C 180.00 (91,755) / P 180.00 (79,309) | 6D 0.03% / 27D 0.03% / 48D 0.01% / 76D 0.01% | 2 | 5 | |
MRVL | 0.39% | 0.50 | 1.28 | 185.00 | C 260.00 (8,531) / P 75.00 (11,297) | 6D 0.39% / 27D 0.39% / 48D 0.39% / 76D 0.20% | 0 | 0 | 5 |
GFS | 0.20% | 0.39 | 0.80 | 65.00 | C 70.00 (15,297) / P 50.00 (2,106) | 20D 0.20% / 48D 0.10% / 76D 0.10% / 167D 0.05% | 0 | 0 | 5 |
APLD | 0.20% | 0.61 | 0.51 | 27.50 | C 60.00 (16,518) / P 25.00 (5,182) | 6D 0.20% / 27D 0.10% / 48D 0.10% / 76D 0.05% | 0 | 0 | 5 |
USAR | 1.56% | 0.51 | 0.70 | 15.50 | C 22.00 (13,725) / P 25.00 (9,083) | 6D 1.56% / 27D 0.78% / 48D 0.78% / 139D 0.78% | 0 | 0 | 5 |
SOXX | 0.10% | 0.64 | 1.24 | 530.00 | C 670.00 (13,664) / P 490.00 (10,204) | 6D 0.10% / 27D 0.00% / 48D 0.05% / 76D 0.03% | 0 | 5 | |
SOXL | 0.39% | 1.44 | 1.63 | 135.00 | C 140.00 (2,958) / P 80.00 (6,644) | 6D 0.39% / 27D 0.20% / 48D 0.10% / 111D 0.10% | 0 | 5 | |
FTXL | 0.39% | 0.58 | 0.30 | 230.00 | C 300.00 (376) / P 280.00 (68) | 20D 0.39% / 48D 225.60% / 139D 0.39% / 230D 0.78% | 0 | 0 | 5 |
PSI | 0.10% | 0.21 | 0.17 | 145.00 | C 205.00 (1,150) / P 135.00 (63) | 20D 0.10% / 48D 0.00% / 111D 0.03% / 202D 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 5 |
DRAM | 0.39% | 0.60 | 0.67 | 52.50 | C 122.00 (35,380) / P 55.00 (36,572) | 6D 0.39% / 27D 0.39% / 48D 0.39% / 76D 1.56% | 0 | 0 | 5 |
VRT | 0.52% | 1.13 | 2.02 | 250.00 | C 270.00 (2,404) / P 185.00 (8,088) | 6D 0.52% / 27D 0.39% / 48D 0.39% / 76D 0.39% | 0 | 0 | 5 |
COHR | 0.39% | 0.79 | 1.14 | 285.00 | C 250.00 (2,164) / P 230.00 (1,745) | 6D 0.39% / 27D 0.20% / 48D 0.20% / 76D 0.10% | 0 | 0 | 5 |
CRCL | 0.39% | 1.39 | 0.94 | 65.00 | C 100.00 (6,954) / P 35.00 (7,796) | 6D 0.39% / 27D 0.20% / 48D 0.39% / 76D 0.39% | 0 | 0 | 5 |
SPCX | 0.20% | 0.36 | 0.94 | 125.00 | C 330.00 (166,105) / P 150.00 (46,358) | 6D 0.20% / 27D 0.10% / 48D 0.78% / 76D 0.78% | 1 | 5 | |
GOOG | 0.39% | 0.54 | 0.94 | 330.00 | C 350.00 (16,114) / P 330.00 (26,525) | 6D 0.39% / 27D 0.20% / 48D 0.20% / 76D 0.10% | 2 | 5 | |
SPY | 0.05% | 1.52 | 1.47 | 745.00 | C 800.00 (91,900) / P 730.00 (44,563) | 6D 0.05% / 30D 0.03% / 60D 0.01% / 90D 0.01% | 7 | 0 | |
QQQ | 0.10% | 0.94 | 1.16 | 690.00 | C 950.00 (36,757) / P 645.00 (56,563) | 6D 0.10% / 30D 0.05% / 60D 0.03% / 76D 0.03% | 3 | 0 | |
NBIS | 0.39% | 1.24 | 1.77 | 175.00 | C 200.00 (5,382) / P 170.00 (20,786) | 6D 0.39% / 27D 0.39% / 48D 0.39% / 76D 0.20% | 0 | 5 |
最新大单 / 异常成交
大单活动只保留最近一次成功的 Yahoo 期权链快照，不是逐笔成交 tape。 当前显示：本次快照 Top 80。
| 观察时间 | 标的 | 合约 | 方向 | Strike | 到期 | Volume | OI | IV | Vol/OI | 估算权利金 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | SPY | SPY260831C00500000 | call | 500.00 | 2026-08-31 | 4,000 | 4,001 | 0.00% | 1.00 | $98,804,000 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | GOOG | GOOG260918P00430000 | put | 430.00 | 2026-09-18 | 4,055 | 250 | 0.00% | 16.22 | $38,907,725 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT260807C00420000 | call | 420.00 | 2026-08-07 | 8,562 | 2,741 | 0.00% | 3.12 | $28,520,022 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | SPY | SPY260930C00606000 | call | 606.00 | 2026-09-30 | 1,806 | 0 | 0.00% | N/A | $25,285,806 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT260918C00450000 | call | 450.00 | 2026-09-18 | 10,403 | 28,661 | 0.00% | 0.36 | $23,614,810 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | SPY | SPY260831C00570000 | call | 570.00 | 2026-08-31 | 1,286 | 1,292 | 0.00% | 1.00 | $22,162,924 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | SPY | SPY260807C00730000 | call | 730.00 | 2026-08-07 | 13,780 | 2,188 | 0.00% | 6.30 | $22,048,000 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | QQQ | QQQ260807C00670000 | call | 670.00 | 2026-08-07 | 10,446 | 10,673 | 0.00% | 0.98 | $21,978,384 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | NVDA | NVDA260918C00010000 | call | 10.00 | 2026-09-18 | 1,133 | 1,464 | 0.00% | 0.77 | $20,958,234 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT260918C00470000 | call | 470.00 | 2026-09-18 | 14,206 | 21,511 | 3.13% | 0.66 | $19,490,632 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | QQQ | QQQ260807C00690000 | call | 690.00 | 2026-08-07 | 20,464 | 33,855 | 1.56% | 0.60 | $17,599,040 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT260918C00425000 | call | 425.00 | 2026-09-18 | 4,298 | 4,566 | 0.00% | 0.94 | $16,671,942 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT260918C00400000 | call | 400.00 | 2026-09-18 | 2,712 | 10,022 | 0.00% | 0.27 | $15,729,600 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | SPY | SPY260807C00735000 | call | 735.00 | 2026-08-07 | 12,088 | 3,073 | 0.00% | 3.93 | $14,493,512 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | QQQ | QQQ260807P00670000 | put | 670.00 | 2026-08-07 | 29,911 | 21,302 | 3.13% | 1.40 | $14,387,191 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | QQQ | QQQ261016C00360000 | call | 360.00 | 2026-10-16 | 400 | 400 | 0.00% | 1.00 | $13,935,200 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | NVDA | NVDA260918P00180000 | put | 180.00 | 2026-09-18 | 21,284 | 68,964 | 6.25% | 0.31 | $12,663,980 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | QQQ | QQQ260807C00680000 | call | 680.00 | 2026-08-07 | 8,290 | 3,822 | 0.00% | 2.17 | $11,829,830 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | QQQ | QQQ261016P00680000 | put | 680.00 | 2026-10-16 | 4,158 | 16,042 | 0.39% | 0.26 | $10,852,380 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT261016C00450000 | call | 450.00 | 2026-10-16 | 3,840 | 7,520 | 0.00% | 0.51 | $10,752,000 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT260807C00430000 | call | 430.00 | 2026-08-07 | 4,186 | 4,060 | 0.00% | 1.03 | $10,653,370 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | NBIS | NBIS260807C00155000 | call | 155.00 | 2026-08-07 | 2,941 | 1,898 | 0.00% | 1.55 | $10,622,892 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT260807C00470000 | call | 470.00 | 2026-08-07 | 31,669 | 25,215 | 6.25% | 1.26 | $10,450,770 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT260918C00440000 | call | 440.00 | 2026-09-18 | 3,604 | 12,390 | 0.00% | 0.29 | $10,253,380 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | NVDA | NVDA260807C00200000 | call | 200.00 | 2026-08-07 | 39,108 | 36,436 | 3.13% | 1.07 | $10,128,972 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT260918C00460000 | call | 460.00 | 2026-09-18 | 5,554 | 12,751 | 1.56% | 0.44 | $9,952,768 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT260918C00420000 | call | 420.00 | 2026-09-18 | 2,380 | 9,692 | 0.00% | 0.25 | $9,941,260 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | NVDA | NVDA260807C00197500 | call | 197.50 | 2026-08-07 | 27,005 | 24,744 | 3.13% | 1.09 | $9,478,755 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT261016C00410000 | call | 410.00 | 2026-10-16 | 1,583 | 2,479 | 0.00% | 0.64 | $9,189,315 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | NVDA | NVDA260918C00200000 | call | 200.00 | 2026-09-18 | 8,664 | 49,200 | 1.56% | 0.18 | $9,123,192 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT260918C00500000 | call | 500.00 | 2026-09-18 | 15,698 | 17,511 | 6.25% | 0.90 | $9,026,350 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | NVDA | NVDA260807P00210000 | put | 210.00 | 2026-08-07 | 5,742 | 7,636 | 0.00% | 0.75 | $8,831,196 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | QQQ | QQQ261016C00355000 | call | 355.00 | 2026-10-16 | 250 | 251 | 0.00% | 1.00 | $8,502,500 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT260807C00460000 | call | 460.00 | 2026-08-07 | 13,123 | 3,177 | 3.13% | 4.13 | $8,398,720 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | SPY | SPY260807P00745000 | put | 745.00 | 2026-08-07 | 12,656 | 27,072 | 0.00% | 0.47 | $7,973,280 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT260918C00430000 | call | 430.00 | 2026-09-18 | 2,183 | 18,707 | 0.00% | 0.12 | $7,596,840 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | NVDA | NVDA260918P00190000 | put | 190.00 | 2026-09-18 | 7,638 | 32,877 | 1.56% | 0.23 | $7,286,652 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | QQQ | QQQ260807C00700000 | call | 700.00 | 2026-08-07 | 16,169 | 17,260 | 3.13% | 0.94 | $7,130,529 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT260807C00425000 | call | 425.00 | 2026-08-07 | 2,485 | 1,910 | 0.00% | 1.30 | $7,067,340 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT261016C00400000 | call | 400.00 | 2026-10-16 | 1,097 | 2,996 | 0.00% | 0.37 | $6,982,405 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | QQQ | QQQ260930P00850000 | put | 850.00 | 2026-09-30 | 441 | 0 | 0.00% | N/A | $6,845,864 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT260918C00390000 | call | 390.00 | 2026-09-18 | 1,011 | 4,636 | 0.00% | 0.22 | $6,702,930 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | NVDA | NVDA260807C00195000 | call | 195.00 | 2026-08-07 | 13,747 | 15,409 | 0.00% | 0.89 | $6,447,343 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | SOXL | SOXL261120P00240000 | put | 240.00 | 2026-11-20 | 406 | 423 | 0.00% | 0.96 | $6,396,124 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | SPY | SPY260807C00745000 | call | 745.00 | 2026-08-07 | 11,824 | 8,335 | 0.78% | 1.42 | $6,290,368 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | SOXL | SOXL260918P00105000 | put | 105.00 | 2026-09-18 | 2,735 | 1,620 | 6.25% | 1.69 | $6,235,800 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | NVDA | NVDA260918P00280000 | put | 280.00 | 2026-09-18 | 718 | 400 | 0.00% | 1.80 | $6,138,900 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | SPCX | SPCX260807P00110000 | put | 110.00 | 2026-08-07 | 7,219 | 14,482 | 3.13% | 0.50 | $6,136,150 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT260918C00310000 | call | 310.00 | 2026-09-18 | 431 | 239 | 0.00% | 1.80 | $5,990,469 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | SOXL | SOXL260807P00240000 | put | 240.00 | 2026-08-07 | 401 | 470 | 0.00% | 0.85 | $5,940,414 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | SPY | SPY260807C00734000 | call | 734.00 | 2026-08-07 | 4,722 | 1,961 | 0.00% | 2.41 | $5,911,944 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT260918C00370000 | call | 370.00 | 2026-09-18 | 640 | 3,190 | 0.00% | 0.20 | $5,683,200 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | SOXX | SOXX260807P00475000 | put | 475.00 | 2026-08-07 | 7,660 | 7,545 | 6.25% | 1.02 | $5,668,400 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT260918C00410000 | call | 410.00 | 2026-09-18 | 1,139 | 6,949 | 0.00% | 0.16 | $5,630,077 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | QQQ | QQQ260831P00670000 | put | 670.00 | 2026-08-31 | 4,130 | 6,847 | 1.56% | 0.60 | $5,484,640 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | NBIS | NBIS260918C00200000 | call | 200.00 | 2026-09-18 | 1,807 | 5,382 | 3.13% | 0.34 | $5,374,018 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT260918C00380000 | call | 380.00 | 2026-09-18 | 703 | 4,492 | 0.00% | 0.16 | $5,323,819 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | SPCX | SPCX260807P00100000 | put | 100.00 | 2026-08-07 | 12,534 | 22,879 | 12.50% | 0.55 | $5,289,348 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT260918C00455000 | call | 455.00 | 2026-09-18 | 2,607 | 2,667 | 0.78% | 0.98 | $5,240,070 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | SOXL | SOXL260918P00130000 | put | 130.00 | 2026-09-18 | 1,366 | 1,943 | 0.00% | 0.70 | $5,140,258 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | SPY | SPY260807P00735000 | put | 735.00 | 2026-08-07 | 16,639 | 7,291 | 1.56% | 2.28 | $5,108,173 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | QQQ | QQQ260807P00700000 | put | 700.00 | 2026-08-07 | 2,541 | 18,334 | 0.00% | 0.14 | $5,079,459 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | NVDA | NVDA260807P00190000 | put | 190.00 | 2026-08-07 | 20,794 | 18,422 | 3.13% | 1.13 | $5,052,942 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | QQQ | QQQ261016P00600000 | put | 600.00 | 2026-10-16 | 6,232 | 14,245 | 6.25% | 0.44 | $4,966,904 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | QQQ | QQQ260831C00700000 | call | 700.00 | 2026-08-31 | 3,651 | 25,100 | 1.56% | 0.15 | $4,917,897 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | NVDA | NVDA260918C00195000 | call | 195.00 | 2026-09-18 | 3,674 | 85,273 | 0.00% | 0.04 | $4,746,808 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | SPCX | SPCX260807P00115000 | put | 115.00 | 2026-08-07 | 4,168 | 10,926 | 0.00% | 0.38 | $4,722,344 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT260807P00450000 | put | 450.00 | 2026-08-07 | 5,161 | 2,271 | 0.39% | 2.27 | $4,686,188 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | NVDA | NVDA260918C00210000 | call | 210.00 | 2026-09-18 | 6,864 | 65,114 | 6.25% | 0.11 | $4,598,880 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | SOXL | SOXL261120P00120000 | put | 120.00 | 2026-11-20 | 1,045 | 739 | 0.00% | 1.41 | $4,581,280 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | QQQ | QQQ260831P00900000 | put | 900.00 | 2026-08-31 | 247 | 0 | 0.00% | N/A | $4,575,922 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | QQQ | QQQ260831C00725000 | call | 725.00 | 2026-08-31 | 9,237 | 2,992 | 3.13% | 3.09 | $4,553,841 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | QQQ | QQQ260807P00680000 | put | 680.00 | 2026-08-07 | 5,625 | 3,911 | 0.78% | 1.44 | $4,455,000 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT261016C00480000 | call | 480.00 | 2026-10-16 | 2,872 | 3,385 | 3.13% | 0.85 | $4,451,600 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | QQQ | QQQ261016P00650000 | put | 650.00 | 2026-10-16 | 2,667 | 15,429 | 3.13% | 0.17 | $4,427,220 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | QQQ | QQQ261016P00845000 | put | 845.00 | 2026-10-16 | 292 | 0 | 0.00% | N/A | $4,394,162 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | NVDA | NVDA260807P00195000 | put | 195.00 | 2026-08-07 | 9,685 | 10,727 | 0.05% | 0.90 | $4,309,825 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | SPY | SPY260807C00740000 | call | 740.00 | 2026-08-07 | 4,929 | 7,853 | 0.00% | 0.63 | $4,091,070 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | SPY | SPY260831C00595000 | call | 595.00 | 2026-08-31 | 275 | 2,245 | 0.00% | 0.12 | $4,058,175 |
| 2026-07-31 12:15:01.077Z | MSFT | MSFT260918C00480000 | call | 480.00 | 2026-09-18 | 3,905 | 9,870 | 3.13% | 0.40 | $4,037,770 |
技术指标事实
| 标的 | 类型 | Benchmark | 最新价 | Strength | 日线九转 | 1H 支撑 / 压力 | 4H 支撑 / 压力 | 1D 支撑 / 压力 | 数据限制 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MSFT | 美股/ETF | SPY | 449.5500 | 13.37 | 高序列第3根 | 449.2730 (-0.06%；MA5/MA10/摆动高点) / 458.6900 (+2.03%；摆动高点/区间极值) | 445.6020 (-0.88%；MA5) / 457.6655 (+1.81%；布林上轨/摆动高点/区间极值) | 431.1760 (-4.42%；摆动高点) / 466.3200 (+3.37%；摆动高点/区间极值) | - |
NVDA | 美股/ETF | SPY | 197.6500 | -3.61 | 低序列第4根 | 194.7016 (-1.49%；MA30/摆动低点/MA20) / 197.8345 (+0.09%；摆动高点/MA10/MA5) | 195.2000 (-1.24%；MA5) / 198.0724 (+0.21%；摆动高点/MA20/布林中轨) | 194.7400 (-0.15%；摆动低点) / 197.5469 (+1.29%；MA5/摆动低点/MA120) | - |
MRVL | 美股/ETF | SPY | 196.1000 | -8.61 | 低序列第5根 | 191.8993 (-2.14%；摆动高点/摆动低点/MA120) / 196.5440 (+0.23%；摆动高点/MA5) | 191.5197 (-2.34%；摆动低点/MA30) / 199.9890 (+1.98%；MA60/摆动低点) | 180.9140 (-1.30%；MA5) / 191.8980 (+4.69%；MA10/摆动高点) | - |
GFS | 美股/ETF | SPY | 52.8900 | -22.96 | 低序列第6根 | 52.1400 (-1.42%；摆动高点/MA5) / 53.1822 (+0.55%；摆动低点/布林上轨/摆动高点) | 51.0130 (-3.55%；MA20/布林中轨) / 52.9600 (+0.13%；摆动低点) | 47.3700 (-5.05%；摆动低点) / 50.1100 (+0.44%；摆动高点) | - |
APLD | 美股/ETF | SPY | 29.9800 | -7.68 | 高序列第1根 | 29.4800 (-1.67%；MA5) / 30.1800 (+0.67%；区间极值) | 29.4000 (-1.93%；摆动高点/摆动低点) / 30.2217 (+0.81%；布林上轨/摆动低点) | 27.5035 (-1.67%；MA10) / 28.9983 (+3.68%；MA20/布林中轨) | - |
USAR | 美股/ETF | SPY | 15.1600 | -20.40 | 高序列第1根 | 15.1340 (-0.17%；摆动高点/MA5) / 15.3667 (+1.36%；摆动高点/区间极值) | 15.1200 (-0.26%；摆动低点) / 15.3000 (+0.92%；摆动高点) | 14.1720 (-3.26%；MA5) / 14.8300 (+1.23%；摆动低点/MA10) | - |
SOXX | 美股/ETF | SPY | 524.4800 | -5.26 | 低序列第4根 | 524.3765 (-0.02%；摆动低点/MA5) / 539.9978 (+2.96%；布林上轨/摆动高点) | 521.1354 (-0.64%；MA30/摆动低点) / 533.8113 (+1.78%；摆动低点/MA60) | 498.3653 (-1.22%；摆动低点/MA5) / 521.6015 (+3.38%；MA10/摆动低点) | - |
SOXL | 美股/ETF | SPY | 128.0900 | -25.83 | 低序列第4根 | 126.7160 (-1.07%；MA5) / 129.3700 (+1.00%；区间极值) | 117.8165 (-8.02%；MA20/布林中轨) / 131.2483 (+2.47%；MA30) | 103.9900 (-9.35%；摆动低点) / 116.3560 (+1.43%；MA5/摆动低点) | - |
FTXL | 美股/ETF | SPY | 226.7100 | -7.57 | 低序列第4根 | 226.2867 (-0.19%；摆动高点/MA120/摆动低点) / 230.1801 (+1.53%；摆动低点/布林上轨) | 225.9497 (-0.34%；MA30) / 234.9719 (+3.64%；MA60/摆动高点/摆动低点) | 216.8700 (-0.44%；摆动低点/MA5) / 220.7700 (+1.35%；摆动低点) | - |
PSI | 美股/ETF | SPY | 143.0000 | -10.30 | 低序列第4根 | 141.2140 (-1.25%；MA5) / 147.5250 (+3.16%；布林上轨) | 140.9160 (-1.46%；MA30) / 143.0640 (+0.04%；摆动低点) | 133.8340 (-0.77%；MA5) / 135.2400 (+0.27%；摆动低点) | - |
DRAM | 美股/ETF | SPY | 54.7900 | -1.41 | 低序列第4根 | 54.1420 (-1.18%；MA5) / 55.8500 (+1.93%；摆动高点/区间极值) | 52.8949 (-3.46%；MA30/摆动低点) / 55.1230 (+0.61%；MA60/摆动低点/摆动高点) | 50.1180 (-4.25%；MA5) / 53.1290 (+1.51%；MA10) | - |
KMEM | 美股/ETF | SPY | 17.8500 | N/A | 低序列第5根 | 17.5448 (-1.71%；摆动低点/MA120/MA5) / 17.9000 (+0.28%；摆动高点) | 17.7900 (-0.34%；摆动低点) / 18.1200 (+1.51%；摆动低点) | 16.4320 (-2.83%；MA5) / 17.5610 (+3.85%；MA10) | 1D 少于 60 根K线 |
VRT | 美股/ETF | SPY | 239.5900 | -25.56 | 低序列第5根 | 238.5200 (-0.45%；MA5) / 242.1194 (+1.06%；摆动高点/布林上轨) | 233.8980 (-2.38%；MA10) / 241.3200 (+0.72%；摆动高点) | 220.9200 (-2.89%；区间极值) / 241.9679 (+6.36%；布林下轨) | - |
COHR | 美股/ETF | SPY | 267.9400 | -19.56 | 低序列第5根 | 264.6100 (-1.24%；MA5) / 275.0674 (+2.66%；摆动高点/MA120/布林上轨) | 255.2618 (-4.73%；MA20/布林中轨/摆动低点) / 274.7350 (+2.54%；MA30) | 234.4423 (-5.87%；布林下轨) / 254.3840 (+2.14%；MA5/摆动低点) | - |
CRCL | 美股/ETF | SPY | 63.0800 | -5.07 | 高序列第1根 | 63.0027 (-0.12%；摆动低点/MA30/摆动高点) / 63.5110 (+0.68%；MA10) | 62.4000 (-1.08%；摆动高点) / 63.2197 (+0.22%；摆动低点/MA10/MA5) | 63.5900 (-1.01%；MA5) / 64.3583 (+0.18%；MA10/MA20/布林中轨) | - |
SPCX | 美股/ETF | SPY | 113.7100 | N/A | 低序列第2根 | 113.5064 (-0.18%；摆动低点/摆动高点/MA10) / 114.4300 (+0.63%；摆动高点) | 111.3500 (-2.08%；摆动低点) / 113.8040 (+0.08%；MA5/MA20/布林中轨) | 107.0100 (-4.63%；摆动低点/区间极值) / 113.9460 (+1.56%；MA5) | 1D 少于 60 根K线 |
GOOG | 美股/ETF | SPY | 338.2000 | -7.19 | 高序列第2根 | 335.4473 (-0.81%；MA60/摆动高点/MA30) / 341.7804 (+1.06%；MA5/布林上轨/摆动高点) | 335.0540 (-0.93%；MA10/MA5) / 342.0445 (+1.14%；摆动低点/摆动高点/布林上轨) | 329.5850 (-1.23%；MA5/摆动低点) / 334.4265 (+0.22%；摆动低点/MA10) | - |
NBIS | 美股/ETF | SPY | 207.5000 | 0.98 | 高序列第1根 | 204.8000 (-1.30%；MA5) / 208.2400 (+0.36%；摆动高点) | 207.0500 (-0.22%；摆动低点) / 211.5100 (+1.93%；摆动低点) | 183.0000 (-2.88%；摆动低点) / 189.8370 (+0.75%；MA10) | - |
BTCUSDT | Crypto | BTCUSDT | 63,711.3000 | 0.00 | 低序列第8根 | 62,660.1000 (-1.65%；摆动低点/区间极值) / 63,744.0352 (+0.05%；摆动低点/布林下轨/摆动高点) | 62,970.8735 (-1.14%；摆动低点/区间极值/布林下轨) / 64,071.6587 (+0.58%；摆动低点/MA5/MA20) | 62,603.3646 (-1.72%；摆动低点/布林下轨) / 63,760.8127 (+0.10%；MA60/摆动低点/MA5) | 自身为基准 |
ETHUSDT | Crypto | BTCUSDT | 1,876.0000 | 3.17 | 低序列第2根 | 1,855.8200 (-1.08%；摆动低点/区间极值) / 1,883.4473 (+0.40%；摆动低点/布林下轨/MA5) | 1,874.8648 (-0.09%；摆动低点/布林下轨/摆动高点) / 1,906.3267 (+1.58%；MA5/MA60/MA10) | 1,845.6705 (-1.65%；摆动高点/MA30/摆动低点) / 1,883.7995 (+0.38%；MA20/布林中轨) | - |
SOLUSDT | Crypto | BTCUSDT | 73.4300 | -1.89 | 低序列第9根完成 | 73.4211 (-0.01%；摆动低点/布林下轨/摆动高点) / 74.3249 (+1.22%；MA20/布林中轨/MA30) | 72.4949 (-1.27%；摆动低点/区间极值/布林下轨) / 73.7093 (+0.38%；摆动低点/MA20/布林中轨) | 72.4169 (-1.38%；摆动低点/布林下轨) / 73.6729 (+0.33%；摆动低点/MA60/MA5) | - |
账户、公开补充与来源
公开数据补充
| 项目 | 最新事实 | 使用方式 |
|---|---|---|
| T-Bill 1 月 | CUSIP 912797UW5；IBKR Ask 99.70920、Ask YTM 3.671%、Ask Size 4 万美元；TreasuryDirect 7 月 30 日参考收益约 3.703%。 | 以 IBKR Ask YTM 作可执行比较；FedInvest 仅作非可执行官方参考。 |
| T-Bill 2 月 | CUSIP 912797VE4；IBKR Ask 99.42050、Ask YTM 3.732%、Ask Size 1.5 万美元；参考收益约 3.744%。 | 报价深度低于计划面值，执行前重新核对；历史拍卖率不替代当前 Ask YTM。 |
| T-Bill 3 月 | CUSIP 912797SK4；IBKR Ask 99.11157、Ask YTM 3.761%、Ask Size 2 万美元；参考收益约 3.756%。 | 三档中 Ask YTM 最高；深度和价格仍需临下单刷新。 |
| ETF 发行商事实 | 6 只基金中 5 只前十大完整、KMEM 为 partial；24/25 个成分报价可用。PSI、DRAM 动态 NAV 缺失。 | 成分只解释基金内部强弱，不扩张股票新闻、期权或机会 universe。 |
| Crypto ETF flow | BTC 7 月 31 日基金单元格全部缺失，Total 0.0 非最终流量；ETH/SOL 最新行为 7 月 30 日，分别 +1,280 万美元和 0。 | 缺失保持缺失；不用其它流量源替代。 |
| 文章与快讯 | 205 篇文章请求中 182 篇正文 ready；132 篇完成重要性与 brief，父流程选中 17 篇生成页内中文摘要。金十 24 条、Followin 18 条进入事实层。 | 读者卡片只展示选中材料；重复、陈旧、低相关和证据不足内容不进入核心判断。 |
| 技术新鲜度 | 美股完成日线截至 7 月 30；1H/4H 刷新至 7 月 31。BTC、ETH、SOL 的 7 月 31 日 UTC 日线尚未完成。 | 完成日线与盘中低周期分开使用；Crypto 低 8/低 2/低 9 只作暂态观察。 |
| 市场机会窗口 | 美股机会的确定性相对强度表缺 1/5/20/60 日 bars，与公开价格和技术横截面存在覆盖冲突。 | 机会雷达最高保留 B；不根据单日涨幅升级为趋势机会。 |
IBKR 账户与保证金
| --- |--- | | 已连接 |是 | | 持仓数 |已隐藏 | | 错误数 |0 |
| --- |--- |--- |--- | | 已隐藏 |AvailableFunds |已隐藏 |USD | | 已隐藏 |BuyingPower |已隐藏 |USD | | 已隐藏 |GrossPositionValue |已隐藏 |USD | | 已隐藏 |InitMarginReq |已隐藏 |USD | | 已隐藏 |MaintMarginReq |已隐藏 |USD |
持仓上下文
- 已隐藏
- 已隐藏
- 已隐藏
数据源列表
- Binance 合约市场数据
- IBKR 行情数据
- IBKR 账户与持仓数据
- Merkl 官方奖励数据
- Yahoo Finance 公开期权链
- Yahoo Finance 历史行情
- Yahoo Finance 新闻检索
- 金十数据快讯事实雷达