GOOG+0.03%
外观
2026-08-13 全球资产日报
- 数据时间：2026-08-13 11:53:55 Asia/Shanghai
- 报告类型：全球资产日报
展开市场热力、期权压力和 Crypto 盘口
股票与 ETF 板块热力
云计算及平台
芯片设计与制造
GFS+5.27%
MRVL+3.95%
NVDA+3.14%
数据中心及算力基础设施
NBIS+31.99%
APLD+5.29%
VRT+3.14%
光通信及互连
COHR+5.69%
关键矿物
USAR-2.59%
数字资产基础设施
CRCL-0.37%
航天与国防主题
SPCX+9.96%
半导体与存储 ETF
DRAM+9.27%
SOXL+8.95%
KMEM+7.50%
PSI+4.70%
其他股票
PLTR-2.53%
期权压力
SPCX0.92
NBIS0.70
NVDA0.41
QQQ0.84
MSFT0.83
PLTR0.60
SPY8.09
SOXX0.80
快照对比基准：2026-08-12。本面板只展示已落盘事实，不生成操作判断。
今日总览
核心判断
| 优先级 | 观点状态 | 市场隐含判断 | 不同判断 | 本期证据变化 | 当前动作 | 失效条件 | 下一验证 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 延续但弱化，中等信心 | 7 月 CPI 符合预期，标普与纳指上涨，9 月维持利率概率升至 59.9%；市场已降低立即加息尾部。 | CPI 只完成第一道验证。4323 亿美元月度赤字、偏弱的 10 年期拍卖和霍尔木兹能源风险，使期限溢价仍可独立于核心 CPI 维持高位。 | 支持风险下降：CPI 同比 3.4%、核心 2.5%，汽油环比 -2.9%。保留反方：9 月加息 25bp 概率仍为 40.1%，PPI 与 30 年期拍卖尚未落地。 | 保持并限制新增 gross：保留核心现货，PPI 与长债拍卖前不扩大高久期股票、半导体集群或 BTC/ETH 合约名义。 | PPI 与后续核心 PCE继续降温，且长端收益率、美元、原油在同一窗口持续回落。 | 08/13 20:30 PPI与初请；随后检查30年期拍卖、长端、美元及风格反应。 |
| 2 | 延续并增强，中等信心 | NBIS 单日上涨 34.14%、COHR 常规时段上涨 8.24%，市场迅速资本化了收入、积压与光互连需求。 | 经营论据上调不等于追价赔率上调。NBIS 的 56.57 亿美元季度资本开支、折旧年限与融资，COHR 的库存和经营现金流，才决定增长能否转成每股现金回报。 | 新增支持：NBIS 收入同比 +454%、调整后 EBITDA 2.362 亿美元；COHR 收入 +34%、非 GAAP 毛利率 40.2%。新增反方：NBIS 仍亏损，COHR 财报后盘后回落。 | 保持、不追财报跳空：现有 AI 基建敞口继续持有；新增风险只给订单、毛利率、现金转换与估值缓冲同时通过的标的。 | 主要云客户削减资本开支或取消订单；项目延迟、融资或稀释使每股现金流持续恶化，任一成立即降级。 | NBIS 合同电力转为投运容量与预付款覆盖；COHR 库存、经营现金流；08/26 NVDA 与云客户资本开支。 |
| 3 | 延续并增强，中等信心 | WTI 与布伦特维持 83.27/88.98 美元，XLE/XOP 五日相对 SPY 领先 6.14/7.76 个百分点，已包含可观供应扰动溢价。 | 伊朗关闭口径和 IEA 缺口转述提高能源对冲价值，但政治表述尚未被连续船流、保险和库存共同确认；能源仍是条件式对冲，不是追价主线。 | 新增支持：伊朗称海峡仍关闭，金十转述 IEA 本季或缺 180 万桶/日。反方：EIA 中期展望仍指向库存增长与油价回落。 | 保持条件式对冲、不追价：先验证船流、保险、库存和期限结构，再筛选现金流型生产商；不以未验证 ETF 代理替代组合降 gross。 | 官方确认商业通航恢复，且库存、运费、油价与能源股相对强度同步正常化。 | 08/14 EIA 库存、近远月价差、船流及 XLE/XOP 相对强度。 |
| 4 | 延续但弱化，中等信心 | 科技、芯片与动量在最近一至五日重新领先，市场没有继续按单向价值轮动定价。 | IWD、XLV、XBI 与金融的二十至六十日领先仍在；一天的芯片反弹修正了轮动判断，却没有把市场重新收敛成单一 AI 动量。 | XLK/SMH 五日相对 SPY 分别 +1.24/+2.31pct；IWD/XLV 六十日仍 +6.51/+11.58pct。多数代理成交量低于二十日均量。 | 保持多主线研究：不做风格式清仓，也不把新增预算重新集中到芯片；保留能源、医疗、软件与防务研究队列。 | 科技、芯片和成长在五日、二十日、六十日全面领先，且等权、价值、医疗和能源同步转弱。 | 08/17 复核 RSP、IWD、IWF、XLV、XLE、XLK、SMH 的五日/二十日相对收益与成交量。 |
| 5 | 延续不变，中等信心 | 市场仍提前计入稀土一体化与稳定币基础设施的远期价值。 | USAR 的政策融资、收购和产能，CRCL 的 USDC、Arc 与支付网络，都尚未用可重复商业收入和每股现金流跨过里程碑门槛。 | 本期重申而非升级：USAR 现金与政策融资降低短期资金风险；CRCL 链上量和合作方提高可选性。两者都没有新增交割、正毛利或重复收入证明。 | 保持既有小额风险、回避新增：任何新增必须绑定交割、产能、外部客户、重复收入或正毛利的原子证据。 | Serra Verde、Stillwater、Round Top 明显延期，或 Arc/支付网络无法形成可核验商业采用，任一成立即降级。 | 08/28 Serra Verde 交易进度；09/16 Arc 主网上线与后续真实商业采用。 |
今日动作
| 标的 / 风险预算 | 当前动作 | 升级条件 | 降级 / 失效条件 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 总组合 / AI 集群 | 保持、封顶新增同因子 gross。已隐藏总组合冲击小于子仓集中度所暗示的程度，因此不按集中度机械减仓，但 PPI 与长债拍卖前不继续叠加同一因果簇。 | PPI、长端与美元不再抬升折现率；新增公司同时通过订单、交付、毛利率、现金流和估值门槛。 | 客户资本开支、项目交付或融资证伪；或 PSI 穿透后显示与单名持仓高度重复。 |
NBIS / COHR | 持有、不追财报跳涨。NBIS 等财报跳空完成价格消化；COHR 等收入与毛利改善转成库存下降和经营现金流。 | NBIS 站稳 264 并披露合同电力转投运与资本回报；COHR 站稳 364.91 且现金转换改善。 | NBIS 跌破 249.37/245.14并伴随资本回报恶化；COHR 失守 354.20 与 MA60 345.84，且现金流或扩产回报转弱。 |
| 能源 / 油气 | 增加研究预算，不追价、不直接用 ETF 对冲。当前只有行业代理与冲突事件，尚无公司级买入候选。 | 官方船流、保险、EIA 库存和期限结构共同确认收紧，并映射到生产商产量、实现油价与自由现金流。 | 通航恢复，XLE/XOP 五日与二十日相对收益转负，或库存继续累积。 |
USAR / CRCL | 保持、停止平均成本式加仓。USAR 的高 9 与价格转弱只构成减仓观察；CRCL 的链上规模只提供可选性。 | USAR 完成交割、拨款或产能节点并收复 18.62；CRCL 披露 Arc/CPN 外部客户重复收入并站上 MA60 77.16。 | USAR 跌破 17.99/17.30 且里程碑延后；CRCL 跌破 69.70/67.89 且商业化延期。 |
跨资产主线
过去两天的主线已经从“等待 CPI 给方向”转为“CPI 降低立即尾部，PPI、财政供给和能源决定长端能否真正回落”。CPI 整体与核心均符合预期，风险资产得到第一轮修复；美元仍收在 100 附近，10 年期拍卖得标利率升至 4.683%，说明贴现率约束尚未退出。今晚不需要再为已经发生的 CPI 意外付对冲成本，但也没有依据把高久期与杠杆预算一次性放开。
近几日 AI 研报的等待项已经部分落地。NBIS 与 COHR 证明算力和光互连需求，CoreWeave 的积压进一步加强产业需求；同一批材料也把争议推进到资本开支、折旧、融资、库存和现金转换。AI thesis 的经营信心上调，财报后追价门槛反而提高。股票主线占总组合不高，不因子仓波动机械降仓；新增预算必须避免继续叠加相同云客户、资本开支和融资风险。
霍尔木兹把宏观与行业判断重新连接起来。若船流和保险确认持续减运，油价会同时改善上游现金流、抬升通胀预期并压制高久期估值；若通航和库存正常化，当前能源相对强度中的事件溢价会快速回吐。今天的优先级为 PPI与初请 → 30年期国债拍卖 → 长端/美元反应 → 船流与库存验证。
全市场快讯
| 类别 | 时间 | 事实与关键数字 | 影响资产 | 市场含义与证据边界 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 宏观数据 | 08/12 20:44 北京时间 | 美国 7 月 CPI 同比 3.4%，核心 CPI 同比 2.5%；汽油环比 -2.9%。归档市场摘要给出的整体/核心月率为 0.1%/0.2%，均符合预期。 | 美债、美元、美股、黄金、Crypto | 立即通胀意外下降；单次 CPI 不替代 PPI、核心 PCE、长债与能源验证。 | 金十 CPI，市场收盘整理 |
| 政策定价 | 08/13 06:06 | CME 概率转述显示 9 月维持利率 59.9%、加息 25bp 40.1%。 | 美债、美元、高久期资产 | 风险下降但没有清零；概率为金十转述，不是政策承诺。 | 金十 CME 观察 |
| 财政 / 利率 | 08/13 02:19 | 美国 7 月预算赤字 4323 亿美元，同比约 +48%；财年前十个月累计赤字接近 1.8 万亿美元。 | 长债、美元、成长股 | 财政供给可让期限溢价独立于当月 CPI 保持高位；金额采用快讯口径。 | 金十财政快讯 |
| 国债拍卖 | 08/13 01:00 | 10 年期拍卖得标利率 4.683%，前值 4.58%；投标倍数 2.53，前值 2.59%。 | 美债、利率敏感资产 | 单次拍卖偏弱，只能作为 30 年期拍卖前的供给压力线索。 | 金十财经日历，无详情 URL |
| 预定事件 | 08/13 20:30 | 美国 7 月 PPI 与初请待公布；当前没有实际值。 | 美债、美元、美股、Crypto | 数据前只设条件路径，不提前写方向。 | BLS 2026 年 8 月日历 |
| 地缘 / 原油 | 08/13 03:54–06:30 | 伊朗方面称霍尔木兹仍关闭；金十转述 IEA 称本季度或有 180 万桶/日供应缺口。 | 原油、航运、通胀、能源股 | 两项均为单方或转述口径；实时船流、保险和官方共同文本缺失。 | 海峡状态，IEA 缺口转述 |
| 原油收盘 | 08/13 03:27 | WTI/布伦特分别收于 83.27/88.98 美元，均约 +0.08%。 | XLE、XOP、通胀预期 | 油价高位但当日未继续加速；与库存和期限结构共同验证。 | 金十原油收盘 |
| 财报 | 08/12 | NBIS Q2 收入 5.823 亿美元、调整后 EBITDA 2.362 亿美元、持续经营净亏损 1.904 亿美元、资本开支 56.574 亿美元。 | NBIS、AI 云、数据中心 | 需求和定价得到确认，资本前置与融资仍约束股东现金回报。 | Nebius Q2，业绩整理 |
| 财报 | 08/12 | COHR Q4 收入 20.5 亿美元、同比 +34%；GAAP/non-GAAP 毛利率 38.5%/40.2%，non-GAAP EPS 1.74 美元。 | COHR、光互连、AI 供应链 | 收入与毛利验证需求，现金转换和扩产回报仍待下一季度确认。 | Coherent 官方业绩，路透整理 |
| 亚洲盘面 | 08/13 11:27–11:30 | KOSPI +4.32%、KOSDAQ +1.04%；三星电子 +4.99%、SK 海力士 +7.65%。A 股午间上证 +0.40%。 | 亚洲科技、半导体、风险偏好 | 韩国代表股支持芯片短线反弹；缺同源广度与行业成交额，不外推为全球中期趋势。 | KOSPI，上证综指 |
宏观
| 主题 | 最新事实 | 市场影响 | 后续验证 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 美国通胀 | 7 月 CPI 同比 3.4%、核心 2.5%，月率 0.1%/0.2%，符合预期；汽油环比下降 2.9%。 | 数据前的上行意外已经解除，高久期风险的边际压力下降；9 月加息概率仍约四成，不能把一次 CPI 当成完整宽松信号。 | 20:30 PPI 与初请；后续核心 PCE；数据后两小时长端、美元、成长/价值和 Crypto 共振。 | 金十 CPI，BLS 日历 |
| 财政与期限溢价 | 7 月赤字 4323 亿美元；10 年期拍卖得标利率 4.683%、投标倍数 2.53；财政部初步日程列出 08/13 的 30 年期拍卖。 | 即使通胀温和，供给与投标需求仍能推高长端和融资成本，资本密集型 AI 运营商最敏感。 | 30 年期拍卖尾差、间接投标比例及其后长端和美元反应。 | 财政快讯，财政部初步拍卖日程 |
| 中国流动性 | 金十整理称央行将在 08/14、08/17–19 开展隔夜逆回购，每日不超过 6000 亿元；二季度报告表述为保持流动性充裕。 | 有助于稳定本地资金面，但不直接证明 A 股盈利或地产信用已经改善。 | 实际操作量、DR007、人民币与 A 股成交扩散。 | 金十整理 |
地缘与政策
| 主题 | 最新事实 | 影响链条 | 后续验证 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 霍尔木兹航运 | 伊朗方面称海峡仍关闭，并与美国官员“已开放”的表述冲突；IEA 供应缺口数字来自金十转述。 | 船流受限先进入保险、运费、近月油价，再影响能源现金流、通胀预期与高久期估值。 | 官方船流/港口、保险费率、近远月价差、EIA 库存和双方共同文本。 | 海峡状态，IEA 7 月油报，EIA 7 月展望 |
| 黑海与能源设施 | 俄乌双方就新罗西斯克港袭击互报，伤亡、设施损毁与后续行动未独立核验。 | 黑海航运风险可能影响原油、成品油和粮食物流，但单次战报不足以形成可投资供应缺口。 | 港口运营、出口装运与官方损毁评估。 | 金十互报整理 |
| 半导体出口管制 | BIS 落盘摘要列出新增/修订设备、Foreign Direct Product 规则及 HBM/DRAM 参数；没有公司级许可、出货和利润影响。 | 监管敏感度提高，但不能从政策摘要直接推导 MRVL、GFS、COHR 或 NVDA 的订单变化。 | 公司 SEC/IR、BIS 许可、受控产品收入与毛利影响。 | BIS 控制更新 |
当日已开盘市场盘面
| 市场 | 观察时间 | 指数表现 | 广度 / 代表线索 | 判断 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 韩国 | 08/13 11:30 北京时间附近 | KOSPI 6863.00，+4.32%；KOSDAQ 867.84，+1.04%。 | 三星电子 +4.99%，SK 海力士 +7.65%；同源广度与成交额未取得。 | 大盘科技与存储领涨支持芯片短线风险偏好；不能从两只代表股推导全市场行业扩散。 | KOSPI，三星电子，SK 海力士 |
| A 股 | 08/13 11:27 北京时间，午间休市 | 上证综指 3962.27，+0.40%。 | 上证页面成交量约 357.56 亿股；未合并深市，万科 A -3.15%。 | 指数温和上行但地产代表股承压；缺深市与行业广度，暂不写全面风险偏好改善。 | 上证综指，万科 A |
持仓观察
| 分类 | 标的 | 结构 / 强弱 | 最近均线压力 / 支撑 | 支撑 | 压力 / 确认 | 日线九转 | 新闻 / 日历 / 期权 | 判断 / 动作 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 芯片设计 | MRVL | 回踩，上强下修；日线在 MA5/10/20/30/120 上，1H 回落、4H 偏强。 | MA60 233.48 / MA5 213.44 | 219.26、214.18 | 放量收复 221.87，再看 225.74。 | 高序列第 2 根；未完成高 9。 | 印度 2.5 亿美元投资是计划、不是订单；PCR 成交/OI 0.72/0.91，Max Pain 200。 | 保持、不追涨、不摊薄。站稳 221.87 且新增订单/资本回报证明后再评估；跌破 214.18 并伴随需求证据转弱时降级。 |
| 晶圆制造 | GFS | 压力测试，下强上弱；低周期反弹，20/60 日仍 -13.40%/-25.13%。 | MA30 57.90 / MA20 52.99 | 53.07、52.96 | 4H 53.88；日线 55.36。 | 高序列第 2 根。 | 3 亿美元 CHIPS 硅光子 LOI尚非最终拨款或收入；Max Pain 55。 | 保持、不摊薄。收复 55.36 且拨款/产能/客户收入落地才升级；失守 52.96 并伴随节点延后时复核。 |
| 数据中心 | APLD | 回踩，上强下修；日线在 MA5/10/20/30 上、MA60/120 下。 | MA120 33.61 / MA5 29.60 | 30.59、30.51 | 4H 31.14；日线 31.48。 | 高序列第 1 根。 | Polaris Forge 1 第二栋楼交付确认容量节点；客户履约、建设、融资与供电仍是条件。 | 保持、不摊薄。突破 31.48 后仍需 33.61 与融资/交付证明；跌破 30.51 且项目证据恶化时降级。 |
| 战略资源 | USAR | 失效观察，下强上弱；1H/4H 近 10 根均转弱。 | MA5 18.62 / MA10 17.30 | 18.22、17.99 | 收复 18.57/18.62 并放量。 | 08/11 高 9 完成，已延续 1 根；只形成减仓观察。 | Q2 官方业绩：收入 582.1 万美元、经营现金流出 5686.8 万美元；Max Pain 17.5。 | 保持里程碑小风险、回避新增。高 9 不单独触发交易；跌破 17.99/17.30 且节点后移时降低风险。 |
| 光通信 | COHR | 压力测试、分歧；日线收在全部均线上，但财报后 4H/1H 动能回落。 | 无上方均线 / MA60 345.84 | 354.20、345.84 | 364.91；4H 需重新站稳 347.85。 | 高序列第 8 根，尚未完成高 9。 | Q4 官方业绩验证收入与毛利；ATM IV 约 110%，PCR 成交/OI 0.89/1.22，Max Pain 320。 | 持有、不追财报跳空。站稳 364.91且现金流改善才加；跌破 345.84 并伴随现金转换恶化时降级。 |
| 稳定币基础设施 | CRCL | 压力测试，上强下修；10/20 日反弹，60 日仍 -37.47%。 | MA60 77.16 / MA5 67.89 | 69.98、69.70 | 71.36、72.62。 | 高序列第 5 根。 | Q2 电话会整理：Arc/CPN 规模尚未转成重复收入；Max Pain 71。 | 保持、不摊薄。突破 72.62 仍需商业收入验证；跌破 69.70/67.89 且上线或客户节点延后时降级。 |
| 云平台 | GOOG | 失效观察、分歧；日线低于全部可用均线，20/60 日 -7.52%/-12.95%。 | MA120 342.46 / 无下方均线 | 341.53、333.69 | 346.13；其后 351.52。 | 低序列第 5 根，未完成低 9。 | 本窗口没有入选的公司经营催化；PCR 成交/OI 0.31/0.91，Max Pain 360。 | 保持观察，不按超跌摊薄。收复 346.13 且公司事实补齐再评估；跌破 333.69 或经营/监管证伪时降级。 |
| AI 云 | NBIS | 压力测试，上强下修；日线在全部均线上，4H RSI6 93.43。 | 无上方均线 / MA60 220.90 | 249.37、245.14 | 264；其后 278.84。 | 跳空后高序列第 1 根。 | Q2 官方业绩；ATM IV 112.04%，PCR 成交/OI 0.70/1.08，Max Pain 195。 | 持有、不追价。站稳 264 只确认价格，新增仍需资本效率与合同电力转化；失守 249.37/245.14 且经营证据转弱时降级。 |
| 软件 / AI 平台 | PLTR | 回踩，上强下修；日线在全部均线上，低周期超卖。 | 无上方均线 / MA5 169.83 | 168.50、163.70 | 172.04、179.60。 | 高序列第 8 根，尚未高 9。 | 本窗口未取得官方 Q2 结果全文；PCR 成交/OI 0.60/0.90，Max Pain 136。 | 保持极小仓位、不建复杂对冲。若扩大仓位，先补完整 thesis 与风险预算；跌破 163.70 再复核。 |
ETF 持仓与观察
| ETF | 当前 / 盘外 | NAV / 溢折价 | 前十大内部强弱 | 技术结构 / 日线九转 | 集中判断 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PSI | 151.98 美元（IBKR 延迟）；常规收 +4.00%，盘外 +0.67%；已隐藏 | NAV、溢折价、AUM 与成交量未取得。 | 发行商持仓端点受阻，无法穿透与 MRVL/GFS/COHR 的重叠。 | 压力测试、分歧；MA60 155.02 / MA30 147.77；支撑 150.54，确认 152.26 后看 155.73；高序列第 2 根。 | 保持、封顶新增。股票主线占总组合较小，不按 ETF 子仓集中机械减仓；穿透缺失时不继续叠加同主题单名。 |
SOXX | 550.00 美元（IBKR 延迟）；常规收 +2.32%，盘外 +0.62%。 | NAV 547.01（08/12）；官方收盘市价 534.20、折价 0.06% 为 08/11，日期不一致。 | 发行商持仓本次受阻。 | 5 日相对 SPY +2.65pct，20 日 -3.90pct；短线反弹未完成中期修复。 | 观察。不把单日芯片反弹当作主题加仓配额。 |
SOXL | 144.91 美元（IBKR 延迟）；常规收 +6.89%，盘外 +1.93%。 | NAV 133.11、收盘 133.00、折价约 0.08%（08/11）。 | 持仓受阻；每日 3 倍工具含衍生结构。 | 5 日相对 SPY +7.29pct，20 日 -16.47pct。 | 回避长期表达。只适合明确 1H/4H 退出条件的战术风险；不用于承载数周至数月 AI thesis。 |
FTXL | 237.25 美元（IBKR 延迟）；常规收 +2.59%，盘外 0%。 | NAV 231.30、收盘 231.26、折价约 0.02%（08/11）。 | 发行商持仓本次受阻。 | 5 日相对 SPY +2.40pct，20 日 -3.86pct，量比 0.28。 | 观察。成交确认弱，没有优于现有 PSI 的替换依据。 |
DRAM | 55.61 美元（IBKR 延迟）；常规收 +7.68%，盘外 +1.48%。 | NAV 与溢折价未取得；费率 0.65%。 | 持仓受阻，不能穿透存储股票与衍生暴露。 | 5 日相对 SPY +1.62pct，20 日 -6.87pct。 | 观察、不追单日反弹。需求线索存在，中期相对强度仍未修复。 |
KMEM | 17.77 美元（IBKR 延迟）；常规收 +7.50%，盘外近 0%。 | NAV 16.47、收盘 16.53、溢价 0.35%（08/11）。 | 持仓受阻。 | 仅 30 根日线；5 日相对 SPY -0.24pct，20 日 -9.50pct；期权无可用到期日。 | 观察。样本、期权与底层覆盖不足，不作为当前主题工具。 |
Crypto 与组合风险
| 资产 | Binance USDS-M 盘面 | 08/12 ETF/ETP 流量 | 判断 / 动作 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC | 63,654.2 美元，24h -0.176%；Funding +0.007048%。 | 源表总额 0；IBIT 缺失，FBTC -4680 万美元，其余明确 0。 | 没有足以改变 thesis 的新事件。保持、不增加合约名义；正 Funding 使 long 承担 carry。 | Binance USDS-M，Farside BTC |
ETH | 1,887.64 美元，24h +0.111%；Funding +0.008032%。 | 源表总额 0；ETHA、ETHB 缺失，其余明确 0。 | 保持、不增加合约名义。若组合风险触发，优先评估降低名义与浮亏更大的 ETH。 | Binance USDS-M，Farside ETH |
SOL | 76.23 美元，24h -0.157%；Funding -0.002418%。 | 六只产品均为明确 0。 | 保持无杠杆 Earn，不因负 Funding 加仓。2.61% APY 无法覆盖大幅价格回撤。 | Binance USDS-M，Farside SOL |
- 已隐藏前者只覆盖份额不变的部分仓位，后者是预期值；都不能抵消
ETH价格与协议风险。
美股机会雷达
板块机会地图
| 分级 | 板块 / 行业 / 主题 | 强度与 Why now | 第一反对理由 | 升级 / 失效条件 | 下一步 workflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B | 半导体出口管制敏感度（SMH） | SMH 单日/5 日相对 SPY +1.83/+2.31pct；BIS 同时更新设备、FDP、HBM/DRAM 规则，适合进入政策暴露研究队列。 | 20 日仍落后 3.35pct、量比仅 0.55；没有公司级许可、出货、收入与利润影响。 | 公司文件量化受控产品与利润影响，且 20 日相对强度转正并放量则升级；适用性很低或继续中期落后则失效。 | 先做政策经济影响，再对有量化暴露的未持仓公司做公司底表。 |
| C | 能源 / 油气（XLE、XOP） | XLE/XOP 5 日相对 SPY +6.14/+7.76pct，20 日 +5.68/+5.98pct；霍尔木兹提供实物验证窗口。 | 60 日相对收益仍为负，量比低于 1；船流、保险和公司经营事实缺失。 | 补齐供需、运输与生产商资本回报并由 60 日强度确认则升级；通航恢复或 5/20 日领先消失则失效。 | 继续经济影响分析，再筛选产量、实现油价与自由现金流。 |
| C | 医疗 / 生物科技（XLV、XBI） | XLV 5/20/60 日相对 SPY +2.26/+4.07/+11.58pct；XBI 5/60 日领先。 | XBI 20 日仍 -0.31pct，成交量低于均量，缺审批、临床和盈利修正。 | 基本面催化与 20 日强度同向后升级；XLV 失去中期领先且 XBI 不扩散则失效。 | 补公司级管线、收入与政策事实后再筛选。 |
| C | 软件（IGV） | 20/60 日相对 SPY +7.39/+7.80pct，量比 1.06，是少数同时有中期强度与成交确认的代理。 | 单日回落，仍低于窗口高点；没有 ARR、续费、利润率或估值事实。 | 公司级经营与估值证据补齐、相对强度延续则升级；20 日领先消失则失效。 | 建公司事实底表后重新运行机会发现。 |
| C | 航空航天与国防（XAR） | 5/20/60 日相对 SPY +3.64/+7.80/+8.00pct，并处于 20/60 日高点。 | 缺预算、合同、积压、交付和公司收入映射。 | 政府合同与公司积压确认才升级；跌离高点且相对领先转负则失效。 | 补合同授予与公司 IR。 |
| Reject | SPCX 短线挤压 | 5 日相对 SPY +34.64pct、量比 1.60。 | 只有 42 根日线，官方空头数值和经营暴露缺失；价格强度本身不能证明可承保。 | 取得官方空头、流通盘和公司经营事实前不重开。 | 拒绝进入公司级候选。 |
未持仓标的下钻
本期没有公司级未持仓候选。市场地图给出了能源、医疗、软件、防务与政策敏感半导体的研究优先级，但没有一只未持仓证券同时具备订单、积压、收入、利润率、资本开支或明确监管节点级证明；不使用已持仓公司回填候选池。
组合暴露叠加
| radarId | 研究方向 | 组合暴露 | 含义 |
|---|---|---|---|
| semiconductor-export-control-sensitivity | 半导体政策敏感度 | 已隐藏 | 已有同因子敞口，政策研究结果不能自动增加配额。 |
| energy-oil-gas | 能源 / 油气 | 已隐藏 | 有事件和相对强度、缺公司证明；优先补研究，不代表立即买入。 |
| healthcare-biotech | 医疗 / 生物科技 | 已隐藏 | 可作为不同经营驱动研究方向，仍需公司基本面。 |
| software-relative-strength | 软件 | 已隐藏 | 不用常识把持仓自动计入分散度。 |
| aerospace-defense | 航空航天与国防 | 已隐藏 | 缺公司到主题的量化映射。 |
重要日历
| 日期 / 时间（北京时间） | 确认状态 | 标的 / 类别 | 事件 | 需要验证 | 预先动作 / 失效条件 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/13 14:00 | 日历项 | 英国宏观 | Q2 GDP 初值、6 月工业与制造业数据 | 英镑、英国利率及欧洲风险偏好。 | 不外推到美股主线；只在全球利率共振时提高权重。 | 金十日历整理 |
| 08/13 20:15 / 20:40 | 日历项 | 美联储 | 哈马克讲话 / 巴尔金谈经济前景 | 对 CPI、PPI 与通胀尾部的表述。 | 官员讲话不替代数据；只有长端和美元同步反应才改变风险预算。 | 金十日历整理 |
| 08/13 20:30 | confirmed | 美国宏观 | 7 月 PPI 与初请失业金 | 整体、核心生产者价格及长端、美元、成长/价值反应。 | 事件前封顶新增 gross；PPI温和且长端/美元回落才释放部分预算。 | BLS 8 月日历 |
| 08/13 美东 | tentative | 美国国债 | 30 年期国债拍卖 | 尾差、投标倍数与间接投标比例；其后长端和美元。 | 拍卖弱且风险资产同步转弱时冻结新增 AI/Crypto gross。 | 财政部初步日程 |
| 08/14 22:30 | 待验证 | 原油 | EIA 库存与供需更新 | 是否确认船流冲击、近端实物收紧和期限结构。 | 能源只增研究预算、不追价；库存累积和通航改善同时出现则降级。 | EIA 周度石油报告 |
| 08/26 美东盘后 | reported | NVDA / AI 供应链 | 财报与云客户资本开支验证 | 订单、数据中心收入、毛利率、客户资本开支与供给。 | 作为 AI 需求能否扩散为供应链现金回报的下一验证，不提前追价。 | NVDA 投资者关系 |
| 08/28 | reported | USAR | Serra Verde 股东投票与交易节点 | 投票、交割、融资后股数、可上划现金流与产能计划。 | 节点落地并收复 18.62 才考虑新增；延期或现金消耗加快则降级。 | USAR Q2 |
| 08/28 04:45 | confirmed | MRVL | Q2 FY2027 业绩会 | 数据中心订单、收入、毛利、客户集中与资本回报。 | 财报前单列事件预算；计划与研发投入不按订单收入。 | Marvell IR |
| 09/16 | management plan | CRCL / Arc | Arc 主网计划上线 | 外部客户、真实交易量、重复收入与支付网络变现。 | 上线本身只完成技术节点；商业收入可核验后才升级。 | Circle Q2 电话会整理 |
重要文章与快讯
重要文章
| 重要性 | 中文标题 | 发布日期 | 来源 | 相关标的 | 评级理由 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/5 高 | Nebius定价能力推动业绩反弹 | 2026-08-13 | TheStreet | NBIS | 文章直接解释NBIS业绩后的价格反应，补充了定价能力和合同电力数据，也明确列出项目延期与客户集中风险。 |
| 5/5 高 | Nebius需求兑现仍待折旧验证 | 2026-08-13 | Motley Fool | NBIS, NVDA | 文章直接覆盖NBIS最新季度业绩，并同时提供需求、资本开支、折旧和估值数据，能够解释强劲业绩与会计争议的并存。 |
| 5/5 高 | CoreWeave订单爆发伴随重资本压力 | 2026-08-13 | Motley Fool | CRWV, NVDA | 文章把AI算力需求的订单强度与资本开支、债务、利息和交付约束连接起来，对NVDA供应链背景和市场容量判断具有较高阅读价值。 |
| 5/5 高 | 温和CPI支撑美股风险偏好 | 2026-08-12 | Stocktwits | DIA, GOOG, QQQ, SMCI, SMH, SPY, ^DJI, ^GSPC | 文章提供日报所需的最新CPI、指数收盘和利率预期背景，并直接涉及GOOG及多个科技、半导体标的。 |
| 5/5 高 | Circle把USDC扩展为金融基础设施 | 2026-08-12 | Motley Fool | CRCL | 电话会议覆盖CRCL最重要的规模、利润、监管、Arc和支付网络数据，既有当季事实也有直接影响未来收入结构的公司展望。 |
| 5/5 高 | COHR业绩受光互联拉动 | 2026-08-12 | Coherent IR | COHR | 材料发布时间最新，直接对应COHR，披露了收入、利润率和每股收益的显著改善，并关联AI数据中心光互联这一重点主题；未来需求和产能展望仍需经营数据验证。 |
| 4/5 中高 | Coherent上调指引映射AI光互联需求 | 2026-08-12 | Reuters | COHR, LSEG.L | COHR业绩和指引直接反映AI光互联需求，且有路透社数据支持；信息较短，对现金流和订单质量的解释有限。 |
| 4/5 中高 | USAR稀土全链条提速 | 2026-08-10 | USA Rare Earth IR | USAR | 官方业绩材料同时覆盖USAR的现金、亏损、融资、收购和稀土产能建设，直接对应标的且事实密度高；多个关键项目仍处于交割、融资拨付或建设阶段。 |
金十快讯
IEA称本季度全球石油市场供应缺口或达180万桶/日
金十称，油价连续五个交易日上涨后回落；IEA表示美伊战争持续下本季度全球石油市场面临日均180万桶供应缺口，2026年供应缺口可能为五年来最大。
CME美联储观察：9月维持利率不变概率59.9%
据CME美联储观察，9月维持利率不变概率59.9%，累计加息25个基点概率40.1%；10月维持不变45.3%，加息25个基点44.9%，加息50个基点9.8%。
美元指数12日收于100.014
美元指数12日上涨0.19%至100.014；欧元兑美元1.1521，英镑兑美元1.3488，美元兑日元159.49。
伊朗称霍尔木兹海峡仍关闭
伊朗“波斯湾海峡管理局”称，美国官员声称海峡已重新开放不改变事实；除非伊朗条件被接受，否则海峡不会重新开放。
WTI收于83.27美元，布伦特收于88.98美元
截至8月12日收盘，WTI 9月合约上涨0.08%至83.27美元/桶，布伦特10月合约上涨0.08%至88.98美元/桶。
美国7月预算赤字4323亿美元，创2021年3月以来新高
美国7月预算赤字4323亿美元，同比增约48%；2026财年前10个月累计赤字接近1.8万亿美元；医疗保险支出1740亿美元，国债净利息支出1040亿美元，关税退税330亿美元。
美国7月CPI同比3.4%，核心CPI同比2.5%
美国7月CPI同比上涨3.4%，核心CPI同比上涨2.5%；汽油价格环比下降2.9%。
A股午盘：沪指涨0.42%，深成指涨0.73%，创业板指涨1.61%
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A股午盘三大指数上涨；两市成交额超过1.5万亿元，近2200只个股上涨；创新药和CPO活跃，油气开采与光伏走弱。
美国官员批评以色列防长长期驻军黎南言论
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美国国务院官员称，长期军事存在不符合以方此前承诺，也不利于黎以长期和平与安全；相关报道引述以色列防长称将为长期驻留做准备。
存储市场要闻：服务器DDR5价格上涨15%至23%
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金十整理称，服务器DDR5本月价格上涨15%至23%；Omdia将2026年半导体市场增幅预期上调至94.1%；新思科技完成首个HBM4 IP测试芯片验证。
澳洲联储助理主席称货币政策具有紧缩性
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澳洲联储助理主席肯特称，年初连续三次加息正在抑制经济，澳元走强进一步强化影响；总需求增速放缓是政策制定者希望看到的。
韩国股市反弹，KOSPI盘初一度涨超4%
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KOSPI较7月30日低点反弹约23%；三星电子和SK海力士盘初分别涨超4%和7%，存储芯片股跑赢科技板块。
多只跨境科技ETF出现高溢价并提示风险
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金十整理称，全球芯片LOF溢价11.83%，中韩半导体ETF临时停牌一小时；纳指科技ETF溢价22.37%并停牌至10:30，其他纳斯达克/标普ETF也出现较高溢价。
台积电部分CoWoS产品良率升至98%至99%
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台积电称，基于5.5倍光罩尺寸的CoWoS AI产品已量产，部分产品良率98%至99%；预计2029年扩大到14倍光罩尺寸。
金十列示8月12日亚欧主要指数收盘表现
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上证综指涨0.32%至3946.68，深成指涨1.09%，沪深300涨0.58%，创业板指涨1.49%，科创50涨1.61%；恒指跌0.83%，恒科跌0.99%；DAX跌0.20%，英国富时100跌0.07%，CAC40跌0.46%。
现货黄金站上4430美元/盎司
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现货黄金站上4430美元/盎司，日内上涨0.51%。
8月13日重点宏观事件待公布
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金十列示：14:00英国二季度GDP初值及6月工业/制造业数据；17:00欧元区6月工业产出；20:15美联储哈马克讲话；20:30美国初请失业金与7月PPI；20:40美联储巴尔金谈经济前景；22:30美国EIA天然气库存。
俄乌双方就新罗西斯克港袭击互报
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金十整理称，乌方称夜间袭击新罗西斯克海军基地；俄方称袭击造成港口三人死亡、24人受伤并影响供水；报道还称俄罗斯将继续打击向乌克兰运送西方武器的船只。
IEA称本季度全球石油市场供应缺口或达180万桶/日
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金十称，油价连续五个交易日上涨后回落；IEA表示美伊战争持续下本季度全球石油市场面临日均180万桶供应缺口，2026年供应缺口可能为五年来最大。
Codelco放弃今年铜产量增长目标
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据知情人士称，Codelco因矿山和项目受挫，预计今年铜产量下降，放弃从去年修正后130.7万吨提高至134万吨的计划。
CME美联储观察：9月维持利率不变概率59.9%
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据CME美联储观察，9月维持利率不变概率59.9%，累计加息25个基点概率40.1%；10月维持不变45.3%，加息25个基点44.9%，加息50个基点9.8%。
Cerebras二季度营收增长但盘后跌17%
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Cerebras二季度营收2.1亿美元，同比增103%；云业务1.26亿美元、同比近四倍，硬件销售同比降23%至5410万美元；净亏损4.505亿美元；上调全年核心营收指引至8.80亿至8.90亿美元，盘后一度跌超17%。
美元指数12日收于100.014
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美元指数12日上涨0.19%至100.014；欧元兑美元1.1521，英镑兑美元1.3488，美元兑日元159.49。
美股周三收盘涨跌不一，纳指涨0.54%
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道指跌0.04%报53770.16，标普500涨0.26%报7748.51，纳指涨0.54%报26588.49；SpaceX涨9.6%，英伟达涨3%，SK海力士涨9%，美光涨4.9%，Meta跌3%，微软跌2%。
伊朗称霍尔木兹海峡仍关闭
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伊朗“波斯湾海峡管理局”称，美国官员声称海峡已重新开放不改变事实；除非伊朗条件被接受，否则海峡不会重新开放。
据伊朗媒体称胡塞武装袭击摩卡港阵地
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据伊朗媒体Fars News，胡塞武装对沙特雇佣军在摩卡港的阵地发动无人机袭击。
WTI收于83.27美元，布伦特收于88.98美元
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截至8月12日收盘，WTI 9月合约上涨0.08%至83.27美元/桶，布伦特10月合约上涨0.08%至88.98美元/桶。
美加尚未准备好达成关税协议
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加拿大广播公司引述消息称，美加尚未准备好达成关税协议，加拿大对美国最新提议不满。
美国7月预算赤字4323亿美元，创2021年3月以来新高
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美国7月预算赤字4323亿美元，同比增约48%；2026财年前10个月累计赤字接近1.8万亿美元；医疗保险支出1740亿美元，国债净利息支出1040亿美元，关税退税330亿美元。
Alphabet重组DeepMind并推迟新版Gemini约两个月
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路透引述消息人士称，部分团队将从DeepMind转入谷歌企业体系，哈萨比斯转任董事长；因内部测试显示新版Gemini在编程等领域落后竞争对手，发布时间推迟两个月。
伊拉克重申9月30日为国际联盟撤军最后期限
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伊拉克总理重申既定时间表：9月30日结束国际联盟部队在伊拉克的军事任务并完成撤军，10月1日进入新阶段。
中国央行将开展多日隔夜逆回购并维持流动性充裕
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金十整理称，央行将在8月14日、8月17日至19日开展隔夜逆回购，每日操作量不超过6000亿元；二季度货币政策执行报告提出保持流动性充裕和社会融资条件相对宽松，并适时调整货币工具。
美国7月CPI同比3.4%，核心CPI同比2.5%
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美国7月CPI同比上涨3.4%，核心CPI同比上涨2.5%；汽油价格环比下降2.9%。
OPEC预计2026年全球原油需求为1.0574亿桶/日
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OPEC月报列示，预计2026年全球原油需求为1.0574亿桶/日。
纽约市议会调查Polymarket等预测市场广告行为
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纽约市议会向Polymarket、Kalshi、Coinbase及Gemini旗下Titan预测市场发出询问函，调查广告行为及用户保护问题，并研究相关政策。
事实参考
以下为事实表、数据对照、账户细项与来源口径，默认折叠；需要核对数据时展开。
美股 / ETF / 公开文章事实
美股 / ETF / 公开行情
| 标的 | IBKR 当前价 | 较前交易日 | 盘后/收盘后 | 上一交易日收盘 | 今日常规收盘 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MSFT | 490.11 | -2.72% | -0.47% | 503.81 | 492.43 |
NVDA | 224.32 | +3.14% | +0.10% | 217.50 | 224.09 |
MRVL | 220.70 | +3.95% | +1.67% | 212.31 | 217.08 |
GFS | 53.50 | +5.27% | +0.60% | 50.82 | 53.18 |
APLD | 31.26 | +5.29% | +0.35% | 29.69 | 31.15 |
USAR | 18.42 | -2.59% | +0.05% | 18.91 | 18.41 |
SOXX | 550.00 | +2.96% | +0.62% | 534.20 | 546.61 |
SOXL | 144.91 | +8.95% | +1.93% | 133.00 | 142.16 |
FTXL | 237.25 | +2.59% | 0.00% | 231.26 | 237.25 |
PSI | 151.98 | +4.70% | +0.67% | 145.16 | 150.97 |
DRAM | 55.61 | +9.27% | +1.48% | 50.89 | 54.80 |
KMEM | 17.77 | +7.50% | +0.00% | 16.53 | 17.77 |
VRT | 290.66 | +3.14% | +0.80% | 281.81 | 288.36 |
COHR | 347.28 | +5.69% | -2.35% | 328.57 | 355.64 |
CRCL | 70.90 | -0.37% | -0.53% | 71.16 | 71.28 |
SPCX | 146.56 | +9.96% | +0.28% | 133.29 | 146.15 |
GOOG | 343.10 | +0.03% | +0.21% | 343.00 | 342.37 |
NBIS | 255.05 | +31.99% | -1.60% | 193.23 | 259.20 |
PLTR | 170.52 | -2.53% | -0.30% | 174.94 | 171.04 |
美股事实与文章索引
| 标的 | IBKR 当前价 | 较前交易日 | 盘后/收盘后 | 文章数 | 数据缺口 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MSFT | 490.11 | -2.72% | -0.47% | 8 条 | - |
NVDA | 224.32 | +3.14% | +0.10% | 8 条 | - |
MRVL | 220.70 | +3.95% | +1.67% | 8 条 | - |
GFS | 53.50 | +5.27% | +0.60% | 8 条 | - |
APLD | 31.26 | +5.29% | +0.35% | 8 条 | - |
USAR | 18.42 | -2.59% | +0.05% | 8 条 | - |
SOXX | 550.00 | +2.96% | +0.62% | 8 条 | - |
SOXL | 144.91 | +8.95% | +1.93% | 8 条 | - |
FTXL | 237.25 | +2.59% | 0.00% | 8 条 | - |
PSI | 151.98 | +4.70% | +0.67% | 8 条 | - |
DRAM | 55.61 | +9.27% | +1.48% | 8 条 | - |
KMEM | 17.77 | +7.50% | +0.00% | 8 条 | - |
VRT | 290.66 | +3.14% | +0.80% | 8 条 | - |
COHR | 347.28 | +5.69% | -2.35% | 8 条 | - |
CRCL | 70.90 | -0.37% | -0.53% | 8 条 | - |
SPCX | 146.56 | +9.96% | +0.28% | 8 条 | - |
GOOG | 343.10 | +0.03% | +0.21% | 8 条 | - |
NBIS | 255.05 | +31.99% | -1.60% | 8 条 | - |
PLTR | 170.52 | -2.53% | -0.30% | 8 条 | - |
入选文章原文与摘要
Nebius定价能力推动业绩反弹
重要性5/5 高
文章直接解释NBIS业绩后的价格反应，补充了定价能力和合同电力数据，也明确列出项目延期与客户集中风险。
中文摘要
核心结论
Nebius（NBIS）第二季度业绩带来的上涨，关键来自算力定价和调整后盈利改善，而非单纯收入扩张。Blackwell容量拍卖价格、短期合同价格和合同电力目标均显示需求具有议价能力，但Vineland项目延期和大客户集中度仍限制收入兑现的确定性。
重要性评级
评级：5/5（高）
文章直接关联NBIS最新业绩，并补充了定价、合同电力、资本开支和客户集中度等能解释股价反应的细节；部分数据来自公司公告，价格与风险判断引用分析机构或媒体转述。
关键事实
- 公司在08/12（未给出具体时刻）公布第二季度收入5.823亿美元，同比增长454%，高于分析师预期的5.738亿美元。
- 按美国通用会计准则计算，公司净亏损1.904亿美元，即每股亏损68美分；调整后每股亏损12美分，优于市场预期的67美分亏损。
- 调整后EBITDA由上年同期亏损2100万美元转为盈利2.362亿美元，利润率由上一季度32%升至41%；同期物业和设备资本开支达到56.6亿美元。
- 股价在业绩后最高上涨16.5%；此前公司股价较06月（未给出具体日期与时刻）的约300美元高点回落约36%，可流通股空头比例达到28.8%。
- 公司称近期Nvidia Blackwell芯片容量拍卖价格比此前最高价高15%，短期容量合同价格达到每兆瓦4000万-5000万美元。
- 公司把年末合同电力目标由约4吉瓦上调至5吉瓦，维持全年收入30亿-34亿美元和资本开支200亿-250亿美元指引。
- D.A. Davidson分析师警告，Vineland设施建设延期可能拖慢合同电力转化为可计费容量的速度，预计今年难以完全解决；公司还依赖Meta五年期算力合同等少数大客户。
- Nvidia（NVDA，英伟达）既是Blackwell芯片供应方，也是Nebius的战略投资方，构成人工智能算力生态联系，但文章没有量化双方新增商业收入。
作者观点与证据
TheStreet认为，市场此次给予业绩正面反应，是因为收入增长同时伴随调整后盈利和算力价格改善。收入、利润、资本开支、指引和合同电力目标来自公司业绩材料；涨幅、空头比例和项目延期风险来自Investing.com、TipRanks、Schaeffer's等媒体或分析机构转述，证据质量与公司披露不同。
与相关标的的关系
NBIS是直接标的，关注点从收入增速扩展到每兆瓦定价、合同电力上线、资本开支回报和客户集中度。NVDA通过Blackwell芯片供应与战略投资关联Nebius，但本文未提供NVDA订单、销售或利润的新事实。
时效性与限制
文章发表于美东时间 08/12 23:07（UTC+8 08/13 11:07）。文章主要依据业绩发布和媒体转述，未提供合同客户的详细付款条款、项目延期的具体时间表或资本开支回报测算；调整后指标与美国通用会计准则亏损之间的差异仍需结合完整财报理解。
后续跟踪
- Blackwell及其他算力容量的实际成交价格和利用率。
- Vineland项目建设进度与合同电力转化为收入的时间。
- 5吉瓦合同电力目标、全年资本开支和收入指引的兑现情况。
- Meta等大客户的合同集中度与算力采购变化。
英文原文
Nebius stock quietly defies its own history after earnings
Nebius stock quietly defies its own history after earnings
Opeyemi Babalola
Thu, August 13, 2026 at 11:07 AM GMT+8 4 min read
- NBIS
+34.14%
Nebius Group ( NBIS ) has trained its investors to brace for disappointment on days when the headlines look strong.
In May, the company reported blowout first-quarter results, only to watch its stock fall almost 9% the following Monday. That pattern is exactly why the reaction stood out on Wednesday, August 12.
Nebius reported second-quarter 2026 results before the open, and the market did not hesitate.
Shares surged as much as 16.5%, according to an Investing.com recap of the earnings call , pulling the stock back toward levels it had not touched since before a brutal summer slide.
For once, good news behaved like good news.
Related: Michael Burry issues blunt warning as he bets against 2 AI favorites
Revenue reached $582.3 million for the quarter, up 454% from a year earlier, according to a press release . That topped the $573.8 million analysts had penciled in, based on estimates from Zacks Investment Research, the Associated Press reported .
The loss narrowed just as sharply.
Nebius posted a GAAP net loss of $190.4 million, or 68 cents per share, but the adjusted loss came to just 12 cents, far better than the 67-cent loss Wall Street expected, the Associated Press reported .
That gap matters because it shows the core business is burning far less cash than the headline number implies.
Wall Street had good reason to expect another selloff
Heading into the report, Nebius was still down roughly 36% from its June record high near $300, according to TipRanks . Short interest stood at 28.8% of the available float, among the most heavily bet-against AI infrastructure names on the market, according to Schaeffer's Investment Research .
Investor Michael Burry had also disclosed a short position in Nebius . Every prior stumble had given short sellers fresh ammunition.
Shares were even down 12% over the trailing month heading into the report, reflecting lingering unease about the pace of its spending, according to TipRanks .
Those episodes built a narrative that Nebius was spending its way into growth rather than earning it. Wednesday's report took most of that ammunition away.
Nebius shares jumped as much as 16.5% after revenue surged 454% and losses narrowed sharply in its second-quarter 2026 report.Bloomberg / Getty Images
The numbers behind the turnaround
Adjusted EBITDA swung to a profit of $236.2 million, compared with a $21 million loss in the same quarter last year, according to the press release . The adjusted EBITDA margin climbed to 41%, up from 32% just one quarter earlier.
That improvement did not come from cutting spending. Nebius still spent $5.66 billion on property and equipment during the quarter, more than ten times what it spent a year earlier.
Story Continues
It scaled revenue faster than it scaled costs, which is the harder trick to pull off in AI infrastructure.
Pricing power is the signal that matters most
The most important detail in the release was not the headline beat. Nebius said a recent capacity auction cleared 15% above its previous high price for Nvidia Blackwell chips, while short-term capacity deals fetched $40 million to $50 million per megawatt, according to the Investing.com recap.
That is direct evidence that demand, not just capital spending, is driving the business.
Nebius also raised its year-end contracted power target to 5 gigawatts, up from roughly 4 gigawatts previously.
Management reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance of $3 billion to $3.4 billion and kept its capital expenditure plan at $20 billion to $25 billion, unchanged from prior guidance.
That combination, rising prices alongside unchanged spending plans, tells a different story than pure capacity expansion.
It suggests Nebius is selling scarce compute rather than discounting it to fill data centers, a distinction that matters more to margins than growth alone.
Rival neocloud CoreWeave posted its own strong results a day earlier, and its rally spilled into Nebius shares before Wednesday's numbers even landed, according to TipRanks .
That sequencing shows investors are now pricing the neocloud group on evidence of real pricing leverage, not just future revenue growth.
More AI:
- Nvidia just made a move Wall Street wasn't ready for
- Microsoft just took sides in AI policy fight
- OpenAI just disclosed something genuinely alarming
The broader test for neocloud investors
Not every doubt disappeared. D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria has warned that construction delays at Nebius's Vineland facility could slow the conversion of contracted power into revenue-generating capacity, a risk he does not expect to resolve this year, according to TipRanks .
Nebius also depends heavily on a few large customers, including a five-year compute deal with Meta Platforms and a strategic investment from Nvidia, according to The Motley Fool .
That concentration is worth watching precisely because it is the flip side of Wednesday's good news.
The same customers whose commitments justified today's rally could just as easily slow their spending if their own AI budgets tighten, and Nebius has limited ability to control that timeline.
Nebius's swing from sell-the-news to buy-the-beat says less about one company and more about where investors are drawing the line in AI infrastructure. Growth alone no longer earns the benefit of the doubt.
What moved this stock was proof that pricing, not just capacity, is scaling with demand. The neoclouds that can show the same thing at their next report will be the ones that keep defying their own history too.
Related: Nebius lands $1 billion AI deal as one major risk looms
This story was originally published by TheStreet on Aug 13, 2026, where it first appeared in the Investing section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
Nebius需求兑现仍待折旧验证
重要性5/5 高
文章直接覆盖NBIS最新季度业绩，并同时提供需求、资本开支、折旧和估值数据，能够解释强劲业绩与会计争议的并存。
中文摘要
核心结论
Nebius（NBIS）的第二季度业绩证明人工智能云需求、合同质量和现金储备均在改善，暂时削弱了Michael Burry做空逻辑中关于需求不足的部分。折旧年限延长、巨额资本开支和高估值仍使“增长能否转化为完整利润”成为未解决问题。
重要性评级
评级：5/5（高）
文章直接关联NBIS，并把强劲业绩与人工智能基础设施的会计口径、资本开支和估值压力放在同一框架内；核心数字来自公司季度报告，但折旧压力的结论带有作者分析性质。
关键事实
- Michael Burry于08/06（未给出具体时刻）披露约212美元的NBIS空头仓位，规模据称高于同期针对甲骨文的空头交易。
- 公司第二季度收入5.823亿美元，同比增长454%；人工智能云收入5.75亿美元，同比增长514%，年化收入运行率达到30亿美元。
- 人工智能云调整后息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）利润率升至50%；季度调整后EBITDA为2.362亿美元。
- 第二季度折旧与摊销为2.597亿美元，占收入45%，高于调整后EBITDA；按美国通用会计准则计算，公司亏损1.904亿美元。
- 公司把服务器和网络设备折旧年限由4年延长至5年；第二季度资本开支达到57亿美元，若按5年折旧，对应年化折旧额将超过11亿美元。
- 公司第二季度签署4份平均总价值超过10亿美元的合同，约70%的新合同包含预付款，覆盖相关资本开支的50%-60%；期末现金约80亿美元，经营现金流22亿美元。
- 股价在业绩公布后升至约259美元，约为公司指引收入30亿-34亿美元的20倍；截至06/30（未给出具体时刻），公司通过发行1270万股筹资约28亿美元，另有1230万股可继续发行。
作者观点与证据
作者认为，季度数据已经充分支持需求和融资能力，尚未解决的是硬件全生命周期成本对利润的侵蚀。需求增长、预付款、现金和合同数据来自公司披露；关于延长折旧年限会抬高利润表现的判断，主要承接Burry的会计分析，文中没有提供独立审计或行业可比验证。
与相关标的的关系
NBIS是直接标的，文章把收入增长、合同预付款、服务器折旧和资本开支列为股价持续重估的关键变量。Nvidia（NVDA，英伟达）属于人工智能算力供应链背景，文章没有提供新的NVDA公司层面财务事实。
时效性与限制
文章发表于美东时间 08/12 22:43（UTC+8 08/13 10:43）。文中的折旧压力测算是假设全部资本开支按5年折旧的分析值，实际投入时间、残值和设备利用率可能改变结果；Motley Fool的解读也不等同于公司或审计机构结论。
后续跟踪
- 服务器和网络设备实际利用率、折旧年限及折旧费用占收入比例。
- 资本开支投产后的收入转换速度和经营现金流。
- 预付款合同的客户集中度、履约进度与取消或延期情况。
- 后续股权发行规模及其对每股指标的影响。
英文原文
Michael Burry
Michael Burry's Nebius Short Is Underwater After a 454% Revenue Quarter
Daniel Sparks, The Motley Fool
Thu, August 13, 2026 at 10:43 AM GMT+8 5 min read
- NBIS
+34.14%
- NVDA
+3.03%
On Aug. 6, Michael Burry disclosed a short position in Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) at around $212 a share, a bet he described as larger than the one he placed against Oracle at the same time. Six days later, the artificial intelligence (AI) cloud company reported second-quarter results before the market opened on Wednesday.
The report did not go his way. Revenue rose 454% year over year to $582.3 million, and management reaffirmed its full-year guidance. The stock jumped about 34% to around $259 as of this writing -- about 22% above the price he disclosed shorting at.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
But a losing first week doesn't settle whether he's right. The more useful question, I'd argue, is which of Burry's concerns the quarter actually answered, and which one it left standing.
Image source: Getty Images.
A quarter with little to argue with
The demand side of the short case looks weaker today than it did on Aug. 6.
Nebius' AI cloud business grew revenue 514% year over year to $575 million. And its annualized run rate (the last month of the quarter's AI cloud revenue multiplied by 12) reached $3.0 billion. That figure was $1.9 billion at the end of March and $1.25 billion at the end of December, so the dollar gains are getting bigger each quarter, not smaller.
The economics improved alongside the growth, too. The AI cloud unit's adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margin reached 50%, up from 45% in the first quarter and 24% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
What's more, the deals behind the growth are getting stronger. Nebius closed four contracts in the quarter averaging more than $1 billion each in total value, and about 70% of the deals it closed in the quarter included customer prepayments covering 50% to 60% of the related capital spending.
"We could sell our entire 2027 capacity on these terms today," founder and CEO Arkady Volozh wrote in his quarterly letter to shareholders.
And the funding picture, a core worry for any company building data centers this fast, held up as well. Operating cash flow came in at $2.2 billion, and the company was sitting on $8 billion of cash at the end of June.
Burry's sharpest argument is about depreciation
Burry's case against AI infrastructure stocks was never really about demand. In a widely covered post last November, he argued that companies in the space are depreciating chips too slowly, stretching the accounting life of hardware that turns over on a two-to-three-year product cycle and overstating profits as a result. He put Oracle's potential overstatement at about 27% by 2028.
Story Continues
His Aug. 6 disclosure pointed at a related worry: obligations, such as leases that haven't started yet and purchase commitments, that sit off the balance sheet.
Nebius' own report shows why that argument is hard to dismiss. Depreciation and amortization came in at $259.7 million in the second quarter -- 45% of revenue, and more than the company's entire adjusted EBITDA of $236.2 million. On a GAAP basis, Nebius lost $190.4 million in the quarter. And the company depreciates its servers and network equipment over five years -- a life it extended from four years at the start of 2026, citing usage patterns and utilization commitments. Extending useful lives is precisely the move Burry says flatters the industry's profits.
The bill is still growing. Nebius spent $5.7 billion on capital expenditures in the second quarter alone. If all of that spending were depreciated over five years, it would imply more than $1.1 billion of annual depreciation once the equipment is in service -- more than the company's current adjusted EBITDA, annualized.
An expensive stock either way
None of this is to say the short is a good bet. Demand is contracted, often prepaid, and growing, and the company keeps hitting its own targets. Betting against a business executing this well could prove expensive, whatever the accounting eventually shows.
But the price asks a lot. At around $259, Nebius trades at about 20 times this year's guided revenue of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion -- a steep multiple even if the growth lands as planned. And shareholders are funding the build-out in dilution as well as dollars. The company sold 12.7 million shares through June 30 at an average price of $223.60, raising about $2.8 billion, with 12.3 million shares still available under the program.
To me, the quarter refuted the easy version of the short case and left the hard version intact. Nebius likely proved the demand, and it arguably proved the funding. What it hasn't proved is that the growth makes money once the full cost of the hardware lands on the income statement.
Should you buy stock in Nebius Group right now?
Before you buy stock in Nebius Group, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Nebius Group wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $403,337 ! Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,334,946 !
Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 958% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 214% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor , and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
See the 10 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of August 12, 2026.
Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Oracle. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .
Michael Burry's Nebius Short Is Underwater After a 454% Revenue Quarter was originally published by The Motley Fool
CoreWeave订单爆发伴随重资本压力
重要性5/5 高
文章把AI算力需求的订单强度与资本开支、债务、利息和交付约束连接起来，对NVDA供应链背景和市场容量判断具有较高阅读价值。
中文摘要
核心结论
CoreWeave（CRWV）的已签合同规模远超当前收入，说明人工智能云需求强劲；兑现这些订单需要持续建设数据中心、购买英伟达GPU并承担高额债务、利息和折旧。文章的重点是交付能力与资本结构，而非订单是否存在。
重要性评级
评级：5/5（高）
文章提供人工智能算力基础设施的订单、功率、资本开支和债务联动数据，与NVDA的GPU需求和供应链景气度直接相关；核心事实较丰富，但对未来交付与估值的判断属于作者分析。
关键事实
- 截至06/30（未给出具体时刻），CoreWeave收入积压约1040亿美元，较一年前的301亿美元大幅增加；公司市值约590亿美元，相当于每1美元已签未来收入对应约0.56美元市值。
- 第二季度收入26亿美元，同比增长112%；公司把2026年收入指引上调至124亿-132亿美元。
- 早期第三季度新增净承诺超过250亿美元，其中Meta增加210亿美元支出承诺；公司还宣布与Anthropic签订多年协议，并获得Jane Street承诺。
- 公司第二季度活跃电力容量增加近500兆瓦至1.5吉瓦，目标是2026年末超过1.85吉瓦；订单只有在容量上线后才能转化为收入。
- 2026年资本开支指引上调至350亿-390亿美元，中值约为全年预期收入的3倍；期末债务约350亿美元。
- 第二季度净利息支出6.4亿美元，高于一年前的2.67亿美元；调整后EBITDA为15亿美元、利润率59%，但扣除设备折旧后的调整后营业利润仅1.28亿美元、利润率5%，净亏损扩大至6.26亿美元。
- 公司2026年调整后营业利润指引为9.6亿-11.5亿美元，低于按季度利息支出年化后的约26亿美元。
- 纽约州州长在07月（未给出具体日期与时刻）签署大型数据中心建设暂停令，数据中心选址和建设许可成为订单兑现的外部约束。
作者观点与证据
作者认为，1040亿美元积压订单解释了市场对CoreWeave的重视，却没有消除从合同签署到交付之间的融资、建设和设备折旧成本。订单、收入和功率数据来自公司披露；市值比较、交付折扣和利润压力是作者的估算与解读。
与相关标的的关系
文章直接涉及CoreWeave的英伟达GPU采购，因此与NVDA的人工智能服务器需求和算力基础设施扩张相关。CoreWeave本身的合同兑现速度、资本开支和债务成本，构成NVDA下游需求持续性的观察背景；文章没有提供NVDA新的订单或财务数据。
时效性与限制
文章发表于美东时间 08/12 21:34（UTC+8 08/13 09:34）。积压订单包含需满足交付与可用性条件的合同承诺，不等同于当期收入或现金流；纽约州政策影响的是部分建设项目，文章没有量化具体受影响容量。
后续跟踪
- 活跃电力容量上线速度和积压订单转化为收入的节奏。
- 资本开支、债务余额、利息支出与折旧费用的变化。
- Meta、Anthropic等大客户的承诺履行和客户集中度。
- 各州数据中心许可、供电和建设政策。
英文原文
CoreWeave Has $104 Billion of Contracted Revenue and a $59 Billion Market Value
CoreWeave Has $104 Billion of Contracted Revenue and a $59 Billion Market Value
Daniel Sparks, The Motley Fool
Thu, August 13, 2026 at 9:34 AM GMT+8 5 min read
- CRWV
+19.28%
- NVDA
+3.03%
CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) reported second-quarter results after the market closed on Tuesday, and the number that mattered wasn't revenue. It was the backlog. The artificial intelligence (AI) cloud provider's revenue backlog reached about $104 billion as of June 30, up from $30.1 billion a year earlier.
Shares jumped about 19% on Wednesday as of this writing, putting the company's market value near $59 billion.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Set those two numbers side by side and the stock trades at about 56 cents per dollar of contracted future revenue. The company defines that backlog as remaining performance obligations plus other amounts it estimates will be recognized as revenue under committed customer contracts, subject to delivery and availability requirements.
In other words, it's demand that customers have signed for but CoreWeave hasn't delivered yet.
The discount is about what sits between a signed contract and delivered revenue.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Eight years of revenue, already signed
Demand is running well ahead of CoreWeave's ability to serve it. Second-quarter revenue rose 112% year over year to $2.6 billion. Management now guides 2026 revenue to $12.4 billion to $13.2 billion, up from the prior range of $12 billion to $13 billion.
Against that guide, a $104 billion backlog represents about eight years of this year's revenue.
And the signings keep coming faster. After adding about $74 billion to the backlog over 12 months, CoreWeave booked more than $25 billion of net new commitments in early Q3 alone -- a figure the $104 billion doesn't include. Meta Platforms added $21 billion to its spending commitments with CoreWeave, and CoreWeave announced a multi-year agreement with AI lab Anthropic along with a commitment from trading firm Jane Street.
Capacity, not demand, is the constraint. CoreWeave expanded its active power by nearly 500 megawatts in the second quarter to reach 1.5 gigawatts, and management is targeting more than 1.85 gigawatts by the end of the year. The backlog converts to revenue only as fast as that capacity comes online.
A $37 billion year
Turning contracted demand into delivered computing takes capital on a scale that rivals the backlog itself. Management raised its 2026 capital spending plan to $35 billion to $39 billion, up from the $31 billion to $35 billion it guided in May. At the midpoint, that's about three times this year's expected revenue, spent in a single year.
Story Continues
The financing costs are already visible. Net interest expense reached $640 million in the quarter, more than doubling from $267 million a year earlier. CoreWeave carried $35 billion of debt on its balance sheet at quarter end -- borrowing that covers the cost of Nvidia graphics processing units (GPUs) and other equipment.
Depreciation weighs on the results from the other side. CoreWeave's adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) came in at $1.5 billion for the quarter, a 59% margin. However, adjusted operating income (which subtracts the depreciation on all of that equipment) was $128 million, a 5% margin, down from 16% a year ago. And the company's net loss widened to $626 million from $290 million.
Revenue is doubling while the profit measures that count the cost of the machines move the other way.
Even management's own full-year outlook makes the point. It guides 2026 adjusted operating income to $960 million to $1.15 billion, while interest expense is running at about $2.6 billion annualized.
Beyond the balance sheet
Of course, there's also friction that money alone can't fix. Data-center construction is drawing political resistance -- New York's governor signed an executive order in July placing a moratorium on new large-scale data centers. CEO Mike Intrator told CNBC that when parts of the country become unwilling to even discuss new projects, the job "becomes more challenging."
The contracts are signed, and the market isn't ignoring them. A company valued at half its backlog is arguably being taken quite seriously.
But I don't think the gap is a bargain. What the market is pricing is everything between signing and delivery: several years of build-out, about $37 billion of capital spending this year alone, an interest bill that already exceeds the company's own adjusted operating income guide, and depreciation that starts the moment the equipment goes into service. That bill, not the demand, is what the discount is about.
Should you buy stock in CoreWeave right now?
Before you buy stock in CoreWeave, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and CoreWeave wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut are built for long-term growth and could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $403,337 ! Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,334,946 !
That performance is why people listen. With a track record of beating the S&P 500 by 4x , Stock Advisor offers a distinct advantage. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor , and join an investing community built for the long haul.
See the 10 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of August 12, 2026.
Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .
CoreWeave Has $104 Billion of Contracted Revenue and a $59 Billion Market Value was originally published by The Motley Fool
温和CPI支撑美股风险偏好
重要性5/5 高
文章提供日报所需的最新CPI、指数收盘和利率预期背景，并直接涉及GOOG及多个科技、半导体标的。
中文摘要
核心结论
美国7月消费者价格数据符合预期，缓解了市场对美联储在9月提前加息的担忧，带动标普500和纳斯达克指数在08/12收高。人工智能、半导体和个别公司事件进一步放大了板块分化，但加息概率仍来自预测市场，后续通胀数据尚未公布。
重要性评级
评级：5/5（高）
文章直接提供当日指数、CPI和利率预期背景，并覆盖GOOG、SMCI、MU、BE、SNDK等科技与人工智能相关标的；宏观数据来自公开统计口径，个股事件和预测市场概率的证据强度不一。
关键事实
- 08/12（未给出具体时刻）收盘时，标普500上涨0.3%至7748.50点，纳斯达克100上涨0.5%至29742.60点，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.04%至53770.27点，罗素2000上涨0.6%。
- 标普500交易所交易基金（SPY）上涨0.2%，纳斯达克100交易所交易基金（QQQ）上涨0.6%，道琼斯交易所交易基金（DIA）持平；半导体交易所交易基金（SMH）上涨2%，信息技术交易所交易基金（VGT）上涨1%。
- 美国7月总体消费者价格指数环比上涨0.1%、同比上涨3.4%；剔除食品和能源的核心消费者价格指数环比上涨0.2%、同比上涨2.5%，均符合预期，年度指标较06月（未给出具体时刻）略有放缓。
- 文章称，Polymarket（预测市场）显示9月加息概率降至约33%；这一数字不是美联储官方指引。
- Super Micro（SMCI）因季度业绩强劲成为标普500涨幅较大的成分股之一；CoreWeave（CRWV）业绩也推动人工智能服务需求信心。
- Alphabet（GOOG/GOOGL，谷歌母公司）重组Google DeepMind管理链条；Wendy's（WEN）涉及Trian Fund Management可能发起私有化要约；Bloom Energy（BE）披露Nebius将采用其方案建设新泽西州Vineland的300兆瓦人工智能数据中心。
- Sandisk（SNDK）与铠侠公布第九代2Tb QLC三维闪存技术，针对人工智能基础设施的存储需求。
作者观点与证据
Stocktwits将符合预期的CPI、疲弱就业数据和近期美联储内部加息分歧联系起来，认为市场获得了等待更多数据的空间。指数收盘和CPI数字属于事实；对9月加息概率的判断来自Polymarket，对个股事件的解释来自新闻摘要，不能等同于企业正式指引或美联储立场。
与相关标的的关系
GOOG/GOOGL的DeepMind管理重组是文章中与输入标的最直接的公司事件，涉及生成式人工智能产品推进。QQQ、SPY、SMH和VGT提供指数与人工智能板块背景；SMCI、MU、BE、SNDK和CRWV的业绩或产业消息解释了当日板块表现，但文章没有给出GOOG新的财务数据。
时效性与限制
文章发表于美东时间 08/12 17:20（UTC+8 08/13 05:20）。这是收盘市场综述，Polymarket概率会随交易变化，个股事件来自多条简短报道；9月会议前仍有新的通胀和就业信息可能改变利率预期。
后续跟踪
- 下一轮通胀、就业和美联储官员表态对9月利率预期的影响。
- 标普500接近高位时，指数上涨是否继续由少数人工智能和半导体成分股贡献。
- GOOG/GOOGL的DeepMind重组能否改善产品推出和商业化进度。
- SMCI、BE和SNDK相关人工智能基础设施需求的订单与业绩兑现。
英文原文
S&P500, Nasdaq End Higher As Fresh CPI Data Calms Earlier-Than-Expected Rate Hike Fears — GOOGL, DJT, WEN, BE, SNDK In Focus
S&P500, Nasdaq End Higher As Fresh CPI Data Calms Earlier-Than-Expected Rate Hike Fears — GOOGL, DJT, WEN, BE, SNDK In Focus
Shashank Nayar
Thu, August 13, 2026 at 5:20 AM GMT+8 3 min read
- ^GSPC
+0.26%
- GOOG
-0.18%
- SMCI
+19.02%
- ^RUT
+0.61%
- ^NDX
+0.74%
- The S&P 500 ended 0.3% higher, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average marginally eased 0.04%.
- S&P 500 hovered near record highs at market close.
- Super Micro was the top gainer in the S&P 500 after posting strong results.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended higher on Wednesday after inflation data came in as expected, alleviating fears that the Federal Reserve could hike rates in its September meeting.
The S&P 500 ended 0.3% higher, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average marginally eased 0.04%. The Russell 2000, which tracks stocks with small market capitalizations, added 0.6%.
See what 10M+ investors are talking about. Get the Stocktwits Daily Rip for what retail is watching right now, free to your inbox
Among ETFs tracking benchmark indexes, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rose 0.2%, and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) ended Wednesday 0.6% higher, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) was flat.
Meanwhile, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) jumped 2%, taking support from strength in Nvidia (NVDA), Micron Tech (MU) and ASML Holdings (ASML), while the broader Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) gained 1%, led by a 10% jump in SpaceX (SPCX) stock.
Retail sentiment on Stocktwits for QQQ and DIA was 'bearish' with 'high' message volumes and was 'neutral' on the SPY.
US Market Drivers
Index
Move
Close
Dow Jones Industrial Average
-0.04%
53,770.27
S&P 500
0.3%
7,748.50
Nasdaq 100
0.5%
29,742.60
In July, the consumer price index aligned with forecasts, as monthly headline inflation rose 0.1%, bringing the year-over-year rate to 3.4%. Core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food components, increased 0.2% for the month and 2.5% compared to the prior year. Both core and headline annual metrics reflected a marginal slowdown relative to June's figures.
Inflation concerns have had a grip on investor sentiment over the past few trading sessions, especially after three officials dissented on July 29 in favor of raising rates.
"The big surprise with a report that had no surprises is that a situation where inflation isn't reaccelerating, coupled with the most recent, weak jobs report gives the Fed more time to wait," Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management told Bloomberg.
The next Federal Reserve rate announcement meeting is due in September, and there is another inflation release scheduled before the central bank meets.
While prices remain elevated, the latest CPI should give investors greater confidence that peak inflation appears to be behind us, according to Bret Kenwell at eToro.
Story Continues
Meanwhile, CoreWeave (CRWV) and Super Micro (SMCI) stock rallied following strong quarterly earnings, which also helped assure investors that demand for AI tools and allied services remains stable.
Key Trending Stocks
Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL): The Google parent company restructured the command chain of its Google DeepMind unit, in an effort to overcome product delays and dominate the generative artificial intelligence market.
Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT): A news outlet and a press freedom advocacy group filed a federal lawsuit on Wednesday seeking to stop a program that sells early access to President Donald Trump's public statements.
Wendy's Co. (WEN): A report said Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund Management is preparing a potential bid to take the U.S. burger chain private.
Bloom Energy (BE): Nebius (NBIS) management stated that the "switch to Bloom" enhanced its planned 300-megawatt AI data center in Vineland, New Jersey.
Sandisk Corp. (SNDK): The memory company and Kioxia unveiled a new 9th-generation 2Tb QLC 3D flash memory technology aimed at the growing storage demands of AI infrastructure.
For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.
Shashank Nayar has no position in any of the stocks mentioned in this article. StockTwits' news team content is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. For more, see our editorial policy . This article was originally published on StockTwits .
Related:
- Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500 Futures: How Markets Are Trading After July CPI As More Inflation Data Looms
- SPCX Stock Eyes Another Green Week: Analyst Warns Traders To 'Divorce' SpaceX Rally From Fundamentals
- STUB Stock Tumbles Nearly 13% Overnight: Ticketing Platform Posts Surprise Q2 Loss Despite FIFA World Cup-Linked Surge
Circle把USDC扩展为金融基础设施
重要性5/5 高
电话会议覆盖CRCL最重要的规模、利润、监管、Arc和支付网络数据，既有当季事实也有直接影响未来收入结构的公司展望。
中文摘要
核心结论
Circle（CRCL）第二季度业绩显示，USDC（美元稳定币）的流通量、交易量和支付应用继续扩大，公司正把收入来源延伸至支付网络、Arc区块链基础设施和代理经济工具。管理层同时把Arc代币预售、监管进展和长期市场增长纳入展望，但这些增长目标和收入确认仍依赖产品里程碑、监管落地与生态采用。
重要性评级
评级：5/5（高）
这是CRCL最新季度电话会议全文，包含经营指标、监管状态、Arc发布时间、收入指引和竞争安排，直接覆盖公司估值所依赖的网络规模与多元化变现路径。大量结论来自管理层，前瞻性表述和非通用会计准则指标需要单独审慎解读。
关键事实
- 电话会议原文标注为美东时间 08/05 08:00（UTC+8 08/05 20:00）；截至季度末，USDC流通量为733亿美元，同比增长19%，季度平均流通量创纪录达到765亿美元。
- 06月（未给出具体日期与时刻），USDC占稳定币交易量接近70%，高于上年第二季度的36%；第二季度链上交易量日均1630亿美元，同比增长151%，交易总量接近15万亿美元。
- 第二季度USDC铸造与赎回日均19亿美元，同比增长105%；季度铸造与赎回总额达到1700亿美元，显示其在法币与链上结算之间的使用规模扩大。
- 第二季度总收入及储备收入为7.01亿美元，同比增长7%；储备回报率为3.48%，同比下降66个基点；其他收入3400万美元，同比增长1.4倍；调整后EBITDA为1.43亿美元，利润率50%。
- Circle平台内USDC同比增长106%至124亿美元，占流通量17%；公司称其基础设施覆盖35条区块链、185个国家，拥有超过55项牌照和注册、超过150个分销合作伙伴。
- 公司获得OCC（美国货币监理署）国家信托银行牌照，并取得纽约州有限目的信托牌照；Arc主网计划于09/16（未给出具体时刻）上线。
- Arc在主网上线前已形成约30亿美元资产，并在第二季度完成2.42亿美元代币预售；公司把2026年其他收入指引上调至3.10亿-3.30亿美元，其中约1.80亿美元预计在产品里程碑达成后确认。
- CPN（Circle支付网络）截至07/31（未给出具体时刻）的年化支付量运行率达到230亿美元；公司还称将从2026年下半年开始逐步对该网络进行商业化。
- Circle与Coinbase续签原有条款；在Hyperliquid的USDC中，季度末约90%存放于Coinbase平台，约10%存放于Circle平台。管理层称《GENIUS法案》预计于2027年01月（未给出具体日期与时刻）生效，《CLARITY法案》仍在美国参议院推进。
作者观点与证据
这是公司管理层和首席财务官在季度电话会议上的陈述。USDC流通、交易、收入、成本和牌照数据属于公司披露的经营事实；Arc资产、代币预售收入、2026年40%多年复合增长目标以及2030年稳定币市场规模预测属于管理层展望或引用的第三方研究。公司还明确提示电话会议包含前瞻性陈述，调整后EBITDA等非通用会计准则指标应结合通用会计准则数据理解。
与相关标的的关系
CRCL是直接标的，关键影响路径包括USDC流通量和交易量、储备回报率、分销成本、CPN商业化、Arc主网收入以及监管牌照。Coinbase合作续签和Hyperliquid资金分布反映分销与收入分享安排；但公司未披露Circle与Coinbase具体收入分成条款，也未证明Arc预售收入已经全部转化为当期现金或利润。
时效性与限制
文章发表于美东时间 08/12 10:00（UTC+8 08/12 22:00）。这是对公司电话会议的转录，Motley Fool提示可能存在遗漏或转录错误；Arc收入须在相关产品里程碑达成后确认，管理层对代理经济、稳定币市场规模和长期增长的判断仍未经过结果验证。
后续跟踪
- USDC流通量、储备回报率和分销成本在利率变化下的表现。
- Arc主网上线、代币预售收入确认、网络交易量及验证者生态。
- CPN支付量从运行率增长到实际收入的转换速度。
- 《GENIUS法案》实施、《CLARITY法案》推进及牌照覆盖变化。
英文原文
Circle (CRCL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Circle (CRCL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Motley Fool Transcribing, The Motley Fool
Wed, August 12, 2026 at 10:00 PM GMT+8 46 min read
- CRCL
+0.17%
Image source: The Motley Fool.
DATE
Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026 at 8:00 a.m. ET
CALL PARTICIPANTS
- Head of Strategic Finance - Scott Blair
- Co-Founder, Chief Executive Officer, and Chairman - Jeremy Allaire
- Chief Financial Officer - Jeremy Fox-Geen
Full Conference Call Transcript
Scott Blair: Good morning, and welcome to Circle's Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. I'm Scott Blair, Circle's Head of Strategic Finance. Earlier this morning, we posted our earnings press release and earnings presentation on the Circle Investor Relations website, investor.circle.com. A transcript of this call will be posted on that website once available. I need to remind everyone that our earnings press release, presentation in this call contain statements that are forward-looking. Because forward-looking statements are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, some of which cannot be predicted or quantified and some of which are beyond our control, you should not rely on these forward-looking statements as predictions of future events.
Information containing risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause these results to differ is included in our SEC filings. Additionally, nothing in this presentation constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities or an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity. We will also disclose non-GAAP financial measures on this call today. Definitions of those non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations can be found in the earnings release and earnings presentation, which are posted on investor.circle.com. Non-GAAP financial measures should be considered in addition to, not as a substitute for GAAP measures.
Today, I'm joined by Jeremy Allaire, our Co-Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman; and Jeremy Fox-Geen, our Chief Financial Officer, who will walk us through Q2 results. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Jeremy Allaire.
Jeremy Allaire: Thank you, Scott. I'm excited to be here with all of you today to discuss Circle's second quarter results. As I've done in the past, I want to begin at a higher level and put in context where we are and what is driving Circle's strategy. We are living through a global moment. Around the world, governments, financial institutions and businesses are embracing digital dollars. Stablecoins are becoming federally regulated digital dollar money in the United States and similar frameworks are taking hold in major markets all around the world. This is the moment Circle has been building toward for more than a decade. That moment has drawn enormous attention and with it, competition. I want to address that directly.
Story Continues
Circle is in a position of significant leadership. We have built deep and durable competitive moats around trust, liquidity, regulatory standing, technology and network scale. Our position has never been stronger. At the center of that position is USDC and the extraordinary network we have built around it. That network was built with partners, including a strategic partnership with Coinbase that we have grown over many years, and I'm pleased to share today that our agreement with Coinbase has renewed on its existing terms, ensuring that USDC remains central across all of Coinbase's products. At the same time, we look forward to continuing to grow our USDC network through distribution arrangements with strategically aligned partners.
Let me start with the foundations of that network. USDC is the leading stablecoin network in the world, and it rests on significant technology and operational infrastructure. Circle and our stablecoin infrastructure are the most widely regulated in the industry. We hold over 55 licenses and registrations across major jurisdictions. That position took years to establish and is what ensures the legal availability of our infrastructure around the world, something that will take others many years to replicate. The software infrastructure that powers this open network runs on every major blockchain technology, spanning 35 blockchain networks and reaching users in 185 countries.
We provide the critical protocols and on-chain smart contracts that make digital dollars work seamlessly wherever users are in whatever application they are using in a safe way. This is unparalleled in the industry. Alongside all of this, the financial infrastructure underneath USDC includes more than 15 partner banks around the world from some of the largest global systemically important banks to critical fintech-focused banks, ensuring the liquidity that underpins our network. We have also built a network of more than 150 distribution partners that have an economic interest in embedding USDC, growing USDC and supporting it across their commercial platforms. This is expanding and accelerating.
And critically, thousands of other companies are also part of our network with products and services that have integrated USDC and use our infrastructure. They span every sector, wallets, DeFi protocols, payment apps, banks, neobanks, asset managers, exchanges, custodians, trading firms, brokerages and large enterprises. These companies have built and continue to build fundamental utility around USDC. That strength is evident even in recently announced purported consortium projects. Approximately 70% of the companies that have expressed interest are already participants on our network. Whatever role they may ultimately play in those projects, the more important fact is that they are already building on, distributing and supporting USDC today. Our network is not theoretical or aspirational.
It is the largest, deepest and most widely integrated in the industry, and its scale creates powerful self-reinforcing network effects that will be extraordinarily difficult to replicate. Liquidity is essential to those network effects and to Circle's competitive position. On a primary basis, we have scaled USDC minting and redemption all around the world. In the second quarter, we saw an average of $1.9 billion of daily minting and redemption, up 105% year-over-year. This is infrastructure that works at scale. On a secondary basis, several billion dollars of USDC trades every day, making USDC one of the most liquid digital currencies in the world.
And transaction volume on the network continues to grow robustly with daily on-chain transaction volume averaging $163 billion per day in Q2, up 151% year-over-year. This liquidity is what makes digital dollars work in markets, in payments and across business applications. Turning to the quarter. I want to focus on a few key highlights. We ended the quarter with $73.3 billion of USDC in circulation, representing approximately 20% year-over-year growth. Total revenue and reserve income was $701 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin demonstrated continued healthy profitability and transactional volume with USDC grew 151% year-over-year to nearly $15 trillion. We also saw expansion of our platform.
In a huge milestone, we received our OCC National Trust Bank charter and shortly thereafter, an additional limited purpose trust charter from the State of New York. And as announced today, we have major strategic partners coming alongside us for the Arc Mainnet launch, which is happening this quarter on September 16. In another milestone, global systemically important banks began offering USDC minting and redemption directly to their institutional clients. Our payments network, CPN, continued to see very robust growth, reaching nearly $15 billion in annualized total payment volume on a trailing 30-day basis at the end of Q2.
And we continue to build out and strengthen flagship partnerships from global banks to major regional financial technology players, payments companies and global financial firms. I want to spend a moment on the National Trust Bank because it represents something foundational. With final OCC approval, we have established Circle National Trust, an infrastructure bank for the Internet financial system. This is about confidence. Circle National Trust gives leading companies and financial institutions a federally supervised foundation on which to build digital asset services. It allows us to bring core elements of USDC into this new federally supervised framework.
And it becomes a way to project Circle's infrastructure into global markets for payments, for capital markets and for use of digital dollars in corporations all around the world. Now moving on to details of our stablecoin network and digital asset growth and adoption. Digital asset markets themselves have continued to see significant weakness. Even so, we saw overall growth on a year-over-year basis and continue to maintain our market share position. More importantly, real-world payment volumes building on digital dollars have continued to scale, growing 84% year-over-year. USDC continues to be the leader in stablecoin transaction volumes. In fact, according to Visa, USDC share of stablecoin transaction volume reached nearly 70% in the month of June, a new record.
Key measures of usage and liquidity have continued to grow. USDC on-chain transaction volume grew 151% year-over-year. While volume was down from the first quarter, which included significant activity from market makers, we continue to see steady growth in transactional utility. At the same time, we are seeing record amounts of minting and redemption of USDC with mint and redeem volume reaching $170 billion in Q2. This underscores USDC's critical and valuable role supporting payments and settlement moving between fiat infrastructure around the world. We are truly building fundamental new pipes for digital dollar movement globally. And while much of the focus is on USDC, we continue to hold market-leading positions across our other digital assets.
EURC grew 2.2x year-over-year and remains the largest digital euro in the world. USYC grew 10x year-over-year to become over $3 billion in assets and remains the largest tokenized money market fund in the world. I also want to talk about the significant evolution happening in digital trading markets and Circle's role in it. Perpetual futures have become one of the most important tradable instruments in the world. The market has evolved from people buying and selling Bitcoin into people trading these perpetual futures at global scale. On the largest centralized and decentralized platforms in the world, Binance and Hyperliquid, USDC's position has continued to strengthen, reaching 40% of open interest collateral in these markets.
And there is a real shift happening in what people are trading. The market is moving away from speculating on cryptocurrencies and into open global digital asset markets that support trading tokenized stocks, tokenized commodities and other tokenized assets. In fact, for the first time, the majority of traded volume on Hyperliquid, one of the most important venues in the world, is now in real-world assets rather than digital commodities and cryptocurrencies, reaching nearly 75% of Perp's volume as of last week. This is a major change in the structure of the market, and Circle is very well positioned as the leading provider of stablecoin infrastructure to these markets.
We are also seeing dramatic growth in prediction markets as a major source of digital asset trading activity. Spot volume on Polymarket grew more than 8x year-over-year, and open interest posted in these markets grew more than 4x year-over-year. Polymarket is a strategic distribution partner for USDC, which underpins this activity. Now let me turn to Arc. Arc is coming, and we are excited to announce today that Arc Mainnet will launch this quarter on September 16. We have seen tremendous traction as the infrastructure gets ready for this moment. Our Testnet has processed more than 0.5 billion transactions across nearly 3 million wallets with nearly perfect uptime.
And more than 100 partners are already active on our private Mainnet, preparing for the public launch. Crucially, Arc has been built as financial infrastructure to be run by the leading financial firms in the world. Today, we are announcing the initial cohort of firms that will operate the Arc blockchain network alongside Circle as network validators. This includes the world's leading asset manager, the world's leading equities and securities clearing firm, leading digital asset firms, the largest exchange group in the world, the 2 largest retail payments networks in the world, leading banks from around the world and leading payment processors and remittance companies. This is an incredible group, running infrastructure that others can build on.
No other blockchain has been built with this kind of strength. It is an amazing milestone, and we are thrilled for the launch in the coming weeks. Alongside the Mainnet launch, we are announcing 2 major partnerships today. The first is with DTCC. DTCC underpins so much of our equities and securities markets today, and DTCC is collaborating with Circle to bring tokenized securities to Arc, focusing first on enabling the tokenization of DTC-custodied assets on Arc. Over time, this extends to broader capabilities, tokenized repo, collateral mobility, corporate actions, securities lending, dividend distribution and participant reporting. This reflects Arc's infrastructure model, purpose-built for financial institutions with deterministic settlement finality, configurable privacy and a network operated by financial infrastructure companies.
DTCC will participate in running the Arc Layer-1 network and DTC tokenized assets will carry the same protections, rights and safeguards that investors receive with traditionally held assets. The second partnership is with BlackRock, who plans to deploy BUIDL on Arc to leverage our infrastructure with native USDC integration. This enables institutional investors to subscribe, redeem and deploy fund assets within a single on-chain environment, removing friction that has historically limited tokenized fund adoption at scale. Institutional fund management meets a network built for financial markets and stablecoin native settlement. We could not be more excited about these 2 partnerships. Turning to payments. We continue to see tremendous progress with CPN.
At the end of Q2, annualized total payment volume reached nearly $15 billion on a trailing 30-day basis. That is tremendous growth on a year-over-year basis and on a quarter-over-quarter basis. We continue to enroll new financial institutions into the network with nearly 30% quarter-over-quarter growth, reaching 175 financial institutions and the momentum has continued. Sitting here today, as of July 31, annualized total payment volume on a trailing 30-day basis has already reached $23 billion, representing 130% growth since our last earnings report. Alongside this growth, we are making major progress in product and market expansion. CPN and our related payments products are rolling out across international markets and now reach more than 58 countries.
Our core operations infrastructure is enabling much more seamless onboarding for financial institutions with stronger operational tooling. And all of this is being integrated across our full stack, including Arc, Circle Mint and our new stable FX venue. We're incredibly excited about this progress, and we are excited about beginning to monetize CPN. I want to close the product discussion with agentic finance, where we are seeing emerging traction with Circle's agent stack. In the coming days, we will be publishing a white paper and our near-term road map for the agentic economy.
We are moving from a world where blockchains, stablecoins and digital wallets are the rails that agents can pay with to a world where agents can earn and monetize. Already today, the USDC network alongside payment protocols like x402 handles 99.3% of agentic payments. More than 900 paid services are already available in our agent marketplace. As we go forward, we see a world where more and more agents conduct work and a labor market emerges for those agents. A developer can build and deploy an agent in minutes. That agent has its own identity. It can be discovered easily by other agents, and agents can monetize their services directly on chain.
Reputation, trust and discovery are all critical to how the agent economy will evolve, and we are excited to lay out our road map for building and delivering this in the second half of this year. Our work on agentic infrastructure is also unfolding inside of Circle. We are building toward operating an agentic corporation. In the first half of this year, we proved adoption at scale. 86% of our employees are weekly active users of AI tools. Our employees have shipped more than 1,100 AI apps this year, most of them over the course of Q2 and most by nontechnical builders. Hundreds of agent skills have been published into an integrated circle AI toolkit available across the company.
And we now have continuous agent run software development with product development velocity up several hundred percent over the first half of the year. In the second half, we are moving from adoption at scale to orchestration at scale. We are standing up infrastructure where hybrid teams of agents and humans operate, working together as one. Underneath that, we'll sit a company brain with memory and orchestration between humans and AIs and between AIs and other AIs connected by a messaging layer.
On top of that, we are rolling out agent authoring tools to every employee in every team on a self-service basis so they can build individual and cross-functional agents with highly skilled capabilities across nearly every domain in the company. And underneath it all, we're building model infrastructure that lets us optimize across any model for performance, cost and capability. All of this is bound by a robust policy, security, governance and risk layer appropriate to a global financial infrastructure company like Circle. This is a transformation in how we operate, how we build and how we deliver. We talk about the agentic economy and the emergence of on-chain agentic corporations.
That is exactly what we are building here at Circle, and we're incredibly excited about what this will enable over time. I want to conclude with where I started. This is a global moment for digital dollars. Stablecoins are becoming federally regulated digital dollar money and the world's leading financial institutions, technology companies and enterprises are moving on to this infrastructure. Circle enters this moment from a position of extraordinary strength. We operate the largest, most liquid, most widely regulated stablecoin network in the world. We have renewed and deepened our most important partnerships and the greatest firms in the world are joining us as network participants, as validators on Arc and as builders on our platform.
We are launching Arc Mainnet in a matter of weeks with a cohort of network validators no other network can match, and we're building the infrastructure for the Agentic economy while becoming an Agentic corporation ourselves. It's an incredibly exciting time to be building here at Circle, and we are thrilled with the progress we made this past quarter. With that, let me turn it over to Jeremy Fox-Geen, our CFO, to take you through the financial results.
Jeremy Fox-Geen: Thank you, Jeremy, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with a few observations that provide context for the quarter before turning to the financial results. First, as Jeremy mentioned earlier, USDC reached nearly 70% of stablecoin transaction volume in June, up from 36% in Q2 last year, reflecting the strength of our network and the trust that we've built across the ecosystem. Second, USDC circulation has remained resilient.
While the broader digital asset market capitalization declined approximately 40% year-over-year, leading to reductions in trading activity, DeFi, collateral demand and associated market maker balances, USDC circulation grew 19% over the same period, underscoring the decoupling of USDC usage from the vagaries of the digital asset markets, the resilience of USDC through that market cycle and signposting the underlying growth in non-crypto market adoption and usage. Those are the massive markets we're building for. And third, we continue to expand our infrastructure and application layers with strong growth in CPN, the upcoming launch of Arc and the approval of our National Trust Bank. These are important proof points that our strategy is taking shape.
So with that context, I'll walk you through the financial results. USDC circulation ended the quarter at $73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year. While ending circulation moderated at quarter end, average USDC circulation reached an all-time high of $76.5 billion in the quarter. USDC held within Circle's platform infrastructure increased 106% year-over-year to $12.4 billion, representing 17% of circulation. USDC on Coinbase's platform reached 30% at quarter end, with Hyperliquid accounting for approximately 6% of that total. The reserve return rate was 3.48% for the quarter, down 66 basis points year-on-year, reflecting the decline in SOFR during the period.
Total revenue and reserve income was $701 million in the quarter, up 7% year-over-year as growth from circulation and other revenue was partially offset by lower reserve return rate during the period. Sequentially, total revenue and reserve income increased as average circulation hit an all-time high, but was partially offset by lower rates and other revenue. Other revenue was $34 million, up 1.4x year-over-year, driven by growth in blockchain partnerships. Quarter-over-quarter, other revenue declined by $8 million, reflecting both moderating blockchain revenue amid weak digital asset market conditions and our deliberate decision to prioritize Arc over other blockchain partnerships. Subscription and services revenue declined $7 million, driven by fewer blockchain integrations.
Transaction revenue declined by $1 million due to declining validator awards. Revenue less distribution cost margin was 41.2%, up 3 percentage points year-over-year, driven by our strategy to increase USDC held on our platform and grow high-margin other revenue streams. Quarter-over-quarter margin decreased 21 basis points with strong platform execution and mix optimization, partially offsetting the impact of lower other revenue. The new Hyperliquid arrangement for USDC had minimal impact on Q2 results as the migration to Coins platform ramped late in the quarter. We expect that impact to be reflected beginning in Q3. Total revenue and reserve income less distribution transaction and other costs grew 15% year-over-year to $289 million.
Adjusted operating expenses were $146 million, up 23% year-over-year, driven by continued investment in product development, go-to-market infrastructure and our AI capabilities. Sequentially, adjusted operating expenses increased $11 million in the quarter or 8% as we continue to execute against our strategy. The expenses were driven by Arc marketing spend, continued infrastructure expansion and investments in G&A. Adjusted EBITDA grew 8% year-over-year to $143 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 50% in the quarter. Now before turning to guidance, I want to start by addressing a question we've received around our multiyear through-cycle USDC growth framework.
As we've said before, we are building infrastructure for the next generation of the financial system, and we continue to see structural shifts taking place across regulation, international adoption, enterprise use cases, agentic finance and the broader acceptance of digital assets and blockchain technology. We believe those trends remain intact and that Circle is uniquely positioned at the center of that evolution. And we are excited about the partners actively committing to the USDC ecosystem and to the quality of institutions interested in even greater strategic partnership.
Given the magnitude of these structural shifts, our own historic growth patterns and the potential for rapid scaling characteristic of Internet platform companies, we believe that a 40% growth CAGR over several years through cycle is achievable. And when we look across third-party research, they project the stablecoin market for 2030 to be between approximately $1 trillion to $4 trillion, implying compound annual growth rates of 27% to 77%. We expect that this growth will come from the massive regulated markets that make up the global economy and that the vast majority of institutions, enterprises and platforms will choose to build on compliant regulated digital dollar infrastructure. We note that our own 40% target is well within this range.
Now with that context, let me turn to the remaining components of our guidance, beginning with other revenue. We are raising our other revenue guidance range to $310 million to $330 million, up from $150 million to $170 million. The increase is driven by Arc. When we set the original range, we took a conservative view on contribution from new products. We are pleased that Arc, in particular, has been so successful and that we have been able to create a $3 billion asset even before Mainnet launch and execute a successful $242 million presale of the Arc token in Q2. We expect to recognize this token presale revenue as certain product milestones are achieved.
Based on our product road map, we expect to achieve approximately 75% of the milestones in revenue in 2026 and have included $180 million in the revised guide. As this revenue is recognized, it will flow directly to the bottom line. The remainder of our products are expected to deliver between $130 million and $150 million. This reflects our strategic decision to focus resources on the development of Arc instead of additional blockchain partnerships as well as moderation in commercial opportunities with new blockchain partners, reflecting softer digital asset markets. Turning to RLDC margin.
We are increasing our full year outlook range to 41.7% to 43.7% from 38% to 40%, reflecting our prior guidance range augmented by the addition of anticipated revenue from Arc. Excluding that Arc revenue, we expect full year RLDC margin to come in near the midpoint of the prior range. Finally, turning to adjusted operating expenses. Our guidance range of $570 million to $585 million remains unchanged, although we expect to land at the higher end of that range. Given the strength of our balance sheet and the very attractive long-term returns we expect from investing behind our platform, we believe that now is the right time to sustain this investment.
As Jeremy mentioned, this is the moment Circle has been building toward. Our financial foundation is strong, our network is growing. And in just a few weeks on September 16, we will launch Arc Mainnet with a cohort of network validators no other blockchain network can match. At the same time, we're building out the infrastructure for the agentic economy, positioning Circle at the center of how value will move in an AI-driven world. The opportunity ahead remains large, and we could not be more excited about the rest of this year and beyond. Now with that, I'll turn it back over to Scott to start the Q&A.
Scott Blair: Thanks, Jeremy. We're starting Q&A again with a few questions we collected from analysts on the Say platform. Our first question is from Norman, who asks, if we can talk to the delay of CLARITY passing.
Jeremy Allaire: Sure. I'm happy to take that, Norman. Thanks for the question. As I think a lot of people know, the CLARITY Act is very actively being discussed and kind of final issues are being worked on, I think, literally as we speak in the Senate. I think there are a few key issues that are being negotiated between the Democrats and the Republicans. I think the goal is to try and get to at least the leader of the Senate, the goal is to try and get to a motion to proceed in working on the bill on the Senate floor this week. We'll see if that happens. I think our view is a few things.
I think the first is we are seeing bipartisan work here to try and get this legislation done. And there are kind of, again, a few critical issues, but I think that they're very much resolvable. Whether they get done this week or in a subsequent convening of Congress, we'll see. But there is a genuine bipartisan effort to get this done, and I think very broad industry support and non-industry support as well. I think the second thing I'd say around this that's really important is that for Circle, the GENIUS Act, which passed a year ago, is the most critical piece of legislation.
And the GENIUS Act has just gone through its proposed rulemaking, and we know will become effective in January of 2027. I referenced that a little bit in my earlier comments. Legal digital dollars in the U.S. financial system and therefore, in the global financial system is a kind of bedrock foundation for what we're building. And so that is critical and I think allows the entire financial industry to move forward with this.
Then the third thing I'd say as well is I think there's been, I think, pretty good coverage of this, but the key regulatory agencies from the banking regulators to securities and capital markets regulators are also very proactively working on their own rule-making in this space to support kind of continued maturation and clarity of rules around how capital markets will function in this area. So obviously, we're all watching that closely.
Scott Blair: Great. Thanks, Jeremy. The second question comes from Sean, and he wants to know if we plan to roll out quarterly dividends in the near future.
Jeremy Fox-Geen: I'll take that one. The short answer is no, we don't. But let me put that in context. We have a massive opportunity ahead of us to be the leading Internet platform company as the whole world evolves from traditional technologies and rails into new Internet-based financial services built on blockchain technology. And as we've always said, we want to have a strong balance sheet to ensure that we can continue to invest against that opportunity through market cycles, no matter what comes and also so that we can be opportunistic to take advantage of great opportunities when they come up.
So with that, we believe in retaining a strong balance sheet, and we believe that the returns available to our shareholders on investing in the platform are far greater than those from sort of paying out quarterly dividends. Fundamentally, we are a massive future market growth stock versus a stock that returns capital to shareholders today.
Scott Blair: Thanks, Jeremy. Okay. Our last question from Say this quarter comes from Sreedhar, and he has a product road map question. He wants to know what's the road map for platform revenue besides passive reserve income? And what should we expect in 2026 and beyond?
Jeremy Allaire: Sure. I'm happy to take that. We've been talking now, I think, over the last year about building out these kind of 3 pillars of our platform, our digital assets pillar where USDC is central, but where we're expanding that into other digital assets, our payments pillar with CPN, which, as I've just shared, continues to grow very robustly. And then our developer infrastructure and operating system pillar with Arc. We obviously, just as discussed, we are already seeing, I think, significant other revenue growth. And in fact, from the beginning of 2025 through today, we've seen that grow from essentially 0 to now a guided range of around $300 million in 2026. And so that is obviously growing.
There are multiple pieces to this. So there's the partnerships that we build around infrastructure that supports our stablecoin network expansion. There are transaction fees that are associated with use of our platform. Arc itself is multiple new sources of revenue. Obviously, we're discussing today the ARC Token and the ARC Token presale, but Arc itself includes revenue from staking, revenue from transactions that run on the network, which is revenue that Circle will be able to collect, but also that other stakeholders and validators on the network will be able to collect. And then there's also revenue associated with partnerships and incentive partnerships that we build with partners building on Arc.
So Arc is going to become a diverse set of revenue and already is in 2026, and we expect that to continue in 2027. CPN, as we've talked about, we're very excited about. We're excited about the traction and growth. We made it very clear when we launched that product that our primary focus was how do we get this platform to scale. And we're starting to see that going from essentially a brand-new product that was cleanly built internally at the company to now as of July 31, $23 billion of annualized TPV run rate payment volume. Now it is becoming the time for us to start to monetize that.
So that will start really in the second half of this year. But we have very ambitious growth goals for that network, very ambitious growth goals ultimately over the long run in terms of what revenue can be derived there. And then I think the last thing I'd say is the velocity of product development that's happening at Circle right now is incredible. I talked about the productivity that we're seeing from agentic infrastructure in our software development. That velocity is allowing us to cover more surface area. And so you will continue to see Circle expanding its product surface area. And alongside that product surface area expansion, you'll see new monetization opportunities that emerge from that as well.
So more to come as we continue to build and innovate in our platform.
Jeremy Fox-Geen: And Jeremy, if I can just add to that, I want to take a point on part of the premise of the question, which is this idea of passive reserve income. I also want to remind everybody that at $70-odd billion, we view the USDC product and the reserve income stream still is very early stage. The market -- the addressable market for money is about $120 trillion, of which about half, $60 trillion is noninterest-earning money. And so we're building an Internet platform company, as we both said in our remarks earlier. And Internet platform companies can scale incredibly rapidly into massive markets as they disrupt.
And that scaling is predicated not only on everything that we're building, but also on all of the work by all of the builders and the developers and the companies that are building products and services based on USDC to offer better products and services to their customers. So there is an awful lot of activity, not just from us, but from the entire ecosystem that's building our USDC business and the reserve income line. And that's a massive market. So we just think we're just getting going.
Scott Blair: That was great. Thanks, guys. Now before I turn it over to the moderator, I want to thank Norman, Sean, Sreedhar and everyone else who participated in our Say questionnaire this quarter. Thanks all. With that, I'm going to pass it over to Denise to begin live Q&A.
Operator: Scott. Our first question today comes from Pete Christiansen at Citi.
Peter Christiansen: Jeremy Allaire, I wanted to dig a little bit more into competitive positioning, specifically around USDC's distribution mode in light of the OUSD announcement earlier last month. The market seems to be framing this potentially as a binary issue, Open Standards model of equally sharing reserve income with all distribution partners, including Visa, potentially as a structural advantage that Circle can't replicate given its existing economics with Coinbase. But what caught our attention, I think, this quarter was the joint Hyperliquid announcement, which you spoke about earlier, where Circle and Coinbase collaborated on a share revenue agreement together.
To us, this suggests that Circle has a mechanism to deploy distribution capacity in a complementary way alongside Coinbase rather than being constrained by that relationship. I guess, can you help us understand your thinking about that framework going forward more broadly and how Circle plans to compete for distribution in a world where reserve income sharing is becoming table stakes.
Jeremy Allaire: Thanks, Pete. It's a great question. A few comments that I want to make here as well, and I touched on this a little bit in my comments. I think critically, we already have an incredible amount of distribution, distribution incentives and partners building on our network, thousands of companies, in fact, part of our network over 150 companies, we have distribution partnership agreements with that provide economic incentives to grow USDC, to build on USDC, to distribute USDC. So this is something that we've been doing for a very long time. And in fact, we do it together with Coinbase often.
And so I think getting to the other part of your question, our ability to build really great distribution, win-win distribution arrangements with major companies is absolutely there. I think you gave one example. There are certainly others. What I would say is a couple of things. The first is, and I think we heard this from Brian on his earnings call last week, Brian made it very clear. His focus is on ensuring that USDC is the #1 stablecoin in the world. It's #1 in multiple areas, and we want to make it #1 overall. I think we share that. And so it's very, very clear.
The second thing I'd say is some of the other partners who announced prospective involvement with a consortium coin also made it very clear in their own earnings calls that they're taking an agnostic approach, multi-coin, multi-chain, et cetera. And in fact, we continue to expand our relationships with these leading firms. Just today, we announced expanded collaboration with Visa and with Mastercard, who are becoming key infrastructure partners in Arc, which is USDC native in terms of its transaction infrastructure and settlement infrastructure. And so we see around 70%, in fact, of companies involved in these kind of consortium efforts already building with us.
Final comment I'd make, which I think gets to the heart of your question, which is we are seeing incredible interest from major companies in wanting to be part of the USDC network. And we see this all around the world, everywhere that we go. And we absolutely have the opportunity together with Coinbase to form partnerships where it makes sense, where we believe that a company can really materially help drive the growth and adoption of USDC. And so I think we're quite confident in the position that we have, the leadership position that we have.
And likewise, I think we have the tools that we need to continue to partner with the best companies in the world to grow together.
Peter Christiansen: Great. Our next question comes from Ken Suchoski from Autonomous.
Jeremy Allaire: Not hearing question.
Kenneth Suchoski: Guys, can you hear me?
Jeremy Allaire: Yes, now we can hear you.
Kenneth Suchoski: [indiscernible] detail on the Arc, presale and what's included in the guidance. Great to get some more detail in commentary, some type of [indiscernible] it seems like Circle [indiscernible] opportunity in that market? And then maybe just a couple of specifics around the deal. Are Circle and Coinbase [indiscernible]?
Jeremy Allaire: Sure. No problem. I can take the first part of that, and then maybe I'll have Jeremy Fox-Geen take the second part of that. I think on the first part is I think what's incredible is that a high-growth platform like Hyperliquid, which also, by the way, looked at getting behind another stablecoin project, ultimately, I think, realized that the liquidity, the network effects, the institutional preference, the global regulatory availability of USDC made it the stablecoin that they needed to get behind. And so I think the first is that it just underscores that we are winning in the market on the basis of the incredible network effects that we've already created. And so there's -- that is key.
The second, and this is very important, is when you look at certain types of distribution platforms, whether they're the biggest global exchanges or you look at which Hyperliquid effectively is, they play a really key role as what I like to call liquidity Supernovas, which is to say the liquidity that concentrates on these platforms spins out and affects distribution and availability in so many other places. And so when we think about major tenfold distribution partnerships, we think about that. What are the network effects? What is this going to do to drive preference and adoption in lots of other applications. So as a critical kind of on-chain market primitive, it's very important that, that's the case.
And so I think it's with that spirit that Circle and Coinbase together looked at, let's build this arrangement so that this important and high-growth platform, which, as I noted in the earnings call, close to 75% of the traded volume is now actually tokenized real-world assets. So this is becoming a convergence of traditional financial markets and these on-chain markets as well. It's a really critical piece for us. And so I think that's the strategic rationale behind the work there. And I'll let Jeremy address the specific financial questions as well.
Jeremy Fox-Geen: Yes. thank you, Jeremy. As it comes to the Hyperliquid arrangement itself in which both Coinbase and Circle and Hyperliquid are all participating. You can see on chain the exact location of the funds within Hyperliquid's platform in relation to where they're held within either Circle or Coinbase's platform. At quarter end, approximately 90% of Hyperliquid's total USDC was held within Coinbase's platform and about 10% of Hyperliquid's total USDC was within Circle's platform. As for the specifics of how that revenue share is detailed, we're not commenting in more detail on the precise nature of that between Circle and Coinbase.
Operator: Our next question comes from James Yaro at Goldman Sachs.
James Yaro: Jeremy, you spoke to a deliberate decision to prioritize Arc over other blockchains and that could have an impact on other revenue. I was hoping you might just expand a little bit on this decision, what this means going forward and how this changes the subscription services component of other revenue going forward.
Jeremy Allaire: Maybe I can take part of that and Jeremy Fox-Geen can take another part of that, which is I think the first is really the strategic decision, which is Arc represents one of the most massive opportunities that we've ever seen as a company. I think I maybe said on the last earnings call, we look at Arc as potentially as bigger than an opportunity than USDC itself. And so this is the birth of a new operating system layer for economic activity in the world. We believe that an incredible amount of financial activity, economic activity, agentic activity are going to move on to these operating systems.
And we believe over the next 3 to 5 years, the opportunity set exists for these to become very large-scale infrastructures on the Internet. And so I think for us, both as a 25% stakeholder in that network as well as a key operator of infrastructure in that network as well as the kind of compounding effects of that network's adoption in terms of real-world asset adoption, stablecoin adoption, transaction fees in stable coins, settlements in our stable coins, all of these pieces make it an incredibly attractive thing to invest in. And so from our perspective, that as a source of major other revenue going forward is very attractive. The margin characteristics are very attractive.
The diversification of different types of product and product SKUs that can be attached to that are very attractive as well. And so I think from our perspective, that's exactly the kind of other revenue that we want to be building, and it's a strategic infrastructure that compounds value to Circle in many, many other ways. In terms of specific commentary on what that does to other revenue over beyond 2026, I'll let Jeremy speak at a high level about that, although I'm not sure we have that much to say.
Jeremy Fox-Geen: Yes. Thank you, Jeremy. Look, the subscription and services revenue line that you asked for, as we've said, is based on the partnerships that we build with other blockchains to bring USDC and the rest of Circle's infrastructure stack to those blockchains. Those contracts have both an upfront component and a recurring component. And as we said, we've been aggressively working through a pipeline of those over the first few quarters of this year and at the back end of last year. I think we've said that consistently, and we're sort of working through those, and there's a lumpiness inherent to that because of the upfront fees. We're still prioritizing this as a service.
It's very important to us that USDC is available on the blockchains where people are building activity, and we very much value those partnerships. As what it means for the rest of the year, you can look at our other revenue guide, and you'll see the implication of that on the second half of the year.
Operator: Our next question comes from Owen Lau at Clear Street.
Owen Lau: Could you please add more color on the road map of agent -- you can hear me? Can you hear me now? Sorry.
Jeremy Allaire: There we go.
Owen Lau: Okay. Could you please add more color on the road map of agentic product in the second half of this year? When should we expect to see more revenue contribution from agentic commerce? I know it's still small. It's still growing, but we just want to understand when it can become more material to Circle longer term.
Jeremy Allaire: Thanks, Owen. It's a great question. So I talked a little bit about our second half road map in the call. And as I noted, we're actually going to be publishing a lot more detail on that in the coming days. So stay tuned for that and watch that. What I'll say specifically is -- the first set of product introductions that we've made are really around enabling agents to have wallets, enabling agents to have policies and guardrails around those wallets, enabling them to make and receive payments using open standard agentic protocols. And we've, alongside that, launched a curated agent marketplace that has -- now has 900 services in it.
What's exciting is that we continue to see organic adoption of the agentic payment stack and organic adoption of services, data providers and other agent marketplaces offering more and more services. So literally, every day, every week, we're seeing more and more of these. In fact, just yesterday, Cloudflare had a big announcement, they're making agentic wallets with x402 and USDC support available as a core part of their offering. They touch a huge percentage of the Internet. So that's very exciting. We're seeing this organically happen. In terms of the second half and sort of the materiality, there are a number of really key things.
And our vision is that agents basically begin to take on more cognitive work and agents conduct and execute services and labor. And in order to do that, sort of these agents as services need to be able to have identity mechanisms. They need to be able to have automated discovery mechanisms, so agents can basically seamlessly discover other agents and their capabilities. And they need reputational systems like the reputation systems that we've seen in Internet marketplaces and platforms where you have reputation that is based on prior engagement like a page rank on Google as an example.
And then finally, you need very simple ways for someone who builds an agent to enable their agent to just earn to earn and monetize their work. And so we're doing -- we're working on all of those things. And I think we'll outline in detail what that looks like. But we want this whole agentic economy to function. We want to enable agents to be providers of services to other agents and to companies around the world. And each one of those capabilities, our approach is to do it through open standards. And so this is not a proprietary circle thing.
We want all of this to be based on open standards and obviously collaborating with the incredible ecosystem that we already have today. In terms of direct impact on revenue, I mean, very clearly, we believe over time, the amount of stablecoin money that is held and used in agentic applications will grow and the velocity of transactions will grow. And we are ensuring that Arc as an infrastructure is an ideal infrastructure. It is an economic operating system that is designed to work with these intelligence operating systems and agentic systems. And so driving utility, transaction volume and assets on Arc directly accrues to revenue to Circle as well.
So we see the agentic stack as driving some revenue around the protocols themselves, but fundamentally driving stablecoin adoption, which drives revenue and driving Arc infrastructure adoption, which drives revenue as well.
Operator: Our next question comes from Ken Worthington at JPMorgan.
Kenneth Worthington: Can you talk about distribution and transaction costs associated with USDC on Circle platform? I can't tell for sure, but it looks like costs specific to Circle on Platform USDC came down a lot from 1Q to 2Q. Did I get that right? And if so, how did the mix of USDC on Circle Platform change? And how is mix change, including CPN, impacting what you're seeing in terms of distribution costs to win Circle on-platform USDC?
Jeremy Fox-Geen: I'll take that one, and Ken, thank you for the question. You're asking a very detailed question, and we don't give disclosure at the level of margin and mix within our platform and within the totality of USDC. But in general, I think what you're seeing happening, and you can tell that from our guide is the overall margin, you can tell from the guide and what we printed in the first half of where we're seeing that coming out. And we've always said there's a lot of puts and takes inherent in that mix.
When you think of how USDC is used across the entire digital asset ecosystem and increasingly outside of the digital asset ecosystem and both on and off platform, there are pockets of heavily incentivized USDC. There are large pockets and very large dispersed surface area of USDC that carries very little incentive at all. And so within any one quarter and over any period of time, there's movements in every single one of those pockets. Now I appreciate that makes it very, very hard to forecast margin quarter-on-quarter, and that's the world we're inhabiting in. Now we feel very comfortable with our year-end guide overall. We've had puts and takes through the first half.
And as we said, the trajectory is still when you back out the $180 million of expected to be recognized revenue, the trajectory of that is pretty much towards the middle of our previously guided range.
Operator: And our last question this morning comes from John Todaro at Needham.
John Todaro: I was wondering if we could spend just a little bit more time on x402. I understand USDC pretty much dominates that right now at 99% plus. There are some other competitors who are looking to launch stablecoins and operate within that. Is there sort of almost an inherent right to win for you guys within that x402 stack or even a benefit you could get from just more adoption within those payment channels?
Jeremy Allaire: Yes. I mean we think about this a lot, and thanks for the question, John. So we were an early design partner in x402. We're one of the kind of key founding members of the x402 Foundation. There's a lot of great companies that are now involved in that. And x402 effectively optimizes for on-chain payments and settlement. And I think in the agentic space, agents want actual money, so they want actual digital dollars. They want to know that the infrastructure is something that can process in fractions of a second for fractions of a cent.
They want to be able to transact where some of the transactions are as low as just a few cents themselves, and we see that in our own agentic marketplace and what people are doing with x402. So all of those things lend themselves extremely well to USDC and to the blockchain infrastructure that we provide and many of our partner networks also provide. And so we absolutely have a right to win, and we are clearly winning. And I think like other aspects of the market, where you see, for example, at the end of June, 70% of real-world stablecoin payment volume being USDC is that there are powerful network effects that exists.
And so even the LLMs as they work with the agents that are deployed on them and discover like what can I use and what's available and what are other agents using, that actually is a network effect. The intelligence layer itself is informed by the utility that exists and the scale of that, that exists. And so we feel very good about the strong position that we've already staked out there. And I think with the product stacks that are coming out of a lot of great companies, including obviously, Circle with a major push on our agent stack, we expect that to continue.
And so I think we feel very good about the right to win, the network effects and the work that we're doing to promulgate this infrastructure into the intelligence layer itself so that USDC is the preferred form of money in the agentic economy. And I guess with that, I think that's our last question. And I want to thank everyone, for joining us today on the Q2 earnings call. We're very pleased to share the results, and thanks for the question. Have a great day.
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Circle (CRCL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript was originally published by The Motley Fool
COHR业绩受光互联拉动
重要性5/5 高
材料发布时间最新，直接对应COHR，披露了收入、利润率和每股收益的显著改善，并关联AI数据中心光互联这一重点主题；未来需求和产能展望仍需经营数据验证。
中文摘要
核心结论
Coherent（COHR，光子技术公司）截至06/30的2026财年第四季度收入、毛利率和每股收益均明显改善，业绩材料将增长背景归因于AI数据中心从铜连接转向光连接，以及客户需求和制造产能扩张。季度财务数据已披露，但AI需求延续、增长平台爬坡和产能兑现主要来自管理层展望。
重要性评级
评级：5/5（高）。这是08/12发布的最新官方业绩材料，直接覆盖COHR并给出收入、毛利率和每股收益的同比变化，对AI数据中心光互联主题具有较强时效性和事实价值。未来需求加速和多年度机会仍属于公司判断。
关键事实
- Coherent公布截至06/30的2026财年第四季度业绩，季度收入为20.5亿美元，同比增加34%；按备考口径同比增加42%。
- 按公认会计准则（GAAP）计算，季度毛利率为38.5%，同比提升277个基点；按非公认会计准则（Non-GAAP）计算，毛利率为40.2%，同比提升215个基点。
- GAAP摊薄每股收益为1.19美元，同比增加2.02美元；Non-GAAP摊薄每股收益为1.74美元，同比增加0.74美元。
- 首席执行官Jim Anderson表示，2026财年实现创纪录收入、利润率显著扩张，Non-GAAP每股收益增速超过收入增速两倍。
- 管理层预计进入2027财年时客户需求强劲、生产能力扩大，多个新增长平台开始爬坡；公司将增加制造产能以满足客户需求。
- 公司把AI数据中心架构逐步由铜连接转向光连接视为多年增长机会，并将自身光子技术组合和制造规模列为竞争基础。
作者观点与证据
文章是公司业绩发布，管理层明确采取积极立场：收入增长、毛利率扩张和每股收益改善证明运营执行有效，并认为光连接替代铜连接会带来持续需求。20.5亿美元收入、34%同比增速、毛利率和每股收益数据属于公司财务披露；AI数据中心架构转换速度、客户需求持续性、新增长平台爬坡和竞争位置属于管理层分析，仍需后续订单、出货和利润率数据验证。
与相关标的的关系
COHR直接对应文章。收入增长和利润率改善提高了公司当前经营表现的可见度，AI数据中心光互联需求则决定其增长叙事能否延续。公司扩大制造产能可能支持未来交付，但也需要观察资本投入、客户集中度、实际产能利用率和新平台贡献。材料没有提供完整年度财务表或具体客户订单数据，因此对全年经营结构的判断有限。
时效性与限制
公司于08/12发布该业绩材料，发布日期未给出具体时刻。归因于AI数据中心光互联的需求增长来自管理层表述；输入原文为业绩新闻稿节选，未包含完整的2026财年全年财务明细、现金流、订单规模或客户构成。
后续跟踪
- 2027财年季度收入和光互联相关业务增速是否延续。
- 制造产能扩张的投产时间、利用率和资本投入。
- GAAP与Non-GAAP毛利率变化及其对盈利质量的影响。
- 新增长平台的实际收入贡献和客户订单兑现情况。
英文原文
Coherent Corp. Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2026 Results
8/12/2026
For Immediate Release
Coherent Corp. Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2026 Results
- Q4 REVENUE OF $2.05B, INCREASED 34% Y/Y AND 42% Y/Y ON A PRO FORMA BASIS
- Q4 GAAP GROSS MARGIN OF 38.5%, INCREASED 277 bps Y/Y; Q4 NON-GAAP GROSS MARGIN OF 40.2%, INCREASED 215 bps Y/Y
- Q4 GAAP EPS OF $1.19, INCREASED $2.02 Y/Y; Q4 NON-GAAP EPS OF $1.74, INCREASED $0.74 Y/Y
SAXONBURG, Pa., August 12, 2026 – Coherent Corp. (NYSE: COHR) (“Coherent,” “We,” or the “Company”), a global leader in photonics, announced financial results today for its fiscal fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2026 ended June 30, 2026.
Revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 was $2.05 billion, with GAAP gross margin of 38.5% and GAAP net income of $1.19 per diluted share. On a non-GAAP basis, gross margin was 40.2% with net income per diluted share of $1.74.
“Fiscal 2026 was an outstanding year for Coherent, with record revenue, significant margin expansion, and non-GAAP EPS growth that was more than twice the rate of revenue growth” said Jim Anderson, CEO. “We enter fiscal 2027 with exceptional customer demand, expanding production capacity, and multiple new growth platforms beginning to ramp. As AI datacenter architectures increasingly transition from copper to optical connectivity, we believe Coherent’s broad photonic technology portfolio and manufacturing scale uniquely position us to deliver accelerating growth and capitalize on this multi-year opportunity.”
Sherri Luther, CFO, said, “Strong operational execution across our business drove meaningful gross margin expansion and converted our top-line revenue growth into robust GAAP and non-GAAP EPS growth. As we enter fiscal 2027, we remain disciplined in our capital allocation, prioritizing investments to expand manufacturing capacity so we can efficiently fulfill the ongoing acceleration in customer demand.”
Webcast Click here for full release
Investor Presentation
Coherent上调指引映射AI光互联需求
重要性4/5 中高
COHR业绩和指引直接反映AI光互联需求，且有路透社数据支持；信息较短，对现金流和订单质量的解释有限。
中文摘要
核心结论
Coherent（COHR）第四季度业绩超出预期，并给出高于市场预期的下一季度收入和利润指引，显示人工智能数据中心对光通信和光子产品的需求仍然强劲。工业业务下滑、全年经营现金流明显走弱以及盘后股价回落，说明增长集中度和业绩预期仍需观察。
重要性评级
评级：4/5（中高）
文章直接覆盖COHR季度业绩和指引，数据来自路透社，证据质量较高；但篇幅较短，缺少现金流下降原因、订单期限和利润结构等细节。
关键事实
- Coherent在08/12（未给出具体时刻）公布第四季度业绩，总收入20.5亿美元，高于分析师平均预期19.9亿美元。
- 调整后每股利润1.74美元，高于市场预期的1.61美元。
- 最大的通信与数据中心业务收入16.2亿美元，高于上年同期的10.2亿美元；工业业务收入同比下降16%。
- 公司预计下一季度收入22亿-24亿美元，高于分析师预期的21.4亿美元；调整后每股利润指引为1.85-2.05美元，高于预期的1.77美元。
- 业绩公布后股价在盘后交易一度下跌约4%，但截至文章发布时年内累计上涨接近93%。
- Nvidia（NVDA，英伟达）在03月（未给出具体日期与时刻）宣布投资20亿美元，用于支持Coherent的研发、制造产能和运营。
作者观点与证据
路透社将超预期业绩和上调指引归因于数据中心及通信产品的人工智能需求，主要依据公司分部收入、利润和管理层展望。工业业务下滑和经营现金流走弱是同一季度的负面事实；文章没有展开解释现金流变化，也没有独立核验管理层对需求持续性的判断。
与相关标的的关系
COHR是直接标的，影响路径集中在人工智能数据中心的光收发器和数据流量管理产品。NVDA的20亿美元投资强化了两家公司在人工智能基础设施和制造能力上的联系，但本文未披露投资后的订单、采购或盈利贡献。
时效性与限制
文章发表于美东时间 08/12 18:02（UTC+8 08/13 06:02）。这是路透社的短篇业绩快讯，缺少现金流降幅、订单积压、产能爬坡和分部利润率等信息，盘后价格变化也可能包含市场对业绩预期的即时反应。
后续跟踪
- 数据中心与通信业务的收入增长和光产品出货量。
- 工业业务下滑是否扩大，以及经营现金流能否恢复。
- 下一季度22亿-24亿美元收入指引的兑现情况。
- Nvidia投资对应的研发、制造产能和商业合作进展。
英文原文
Coherent forecasts upbeat first quarter on robust AI demand
Coherent forecasts upbeat first quarter on robust AI demand
Reuters
Thu, August 13, 2026 at 6:02 AM GMT+8 1 min read
- COHR
+8.24%
- LSEG.L
-0.61%
Aug 12 (Reuters) - Coherent beat estimates for fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday and forecast first-quarter revenue and profit above analysts' expectations, betting on strong demand for its data center and communications products.
Shares of the company, however, slipped 4% in extended trading. They have risen nearly 93% so far this year.
Here are more details:
• Coherent, which makes optical transceivers and other photonics products that help manage traffic inside data centers, has benefited from growing investment in AI infrastructure.
• Data center and communications, Coherent's largest segment, reported revenue of $1.62 billion in the fourth quarter ended June 30, up from $1.02 billion a year earlier.
• However, revenue at its industrial business segment declined 16% in the quarter. The company also reported sharply lower full-year operating cash flow.
• Meanwhile, overall quarterly revenue of $2.05 billion surpassed analysts' average estimate of $1.99 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.
• Adjusted profit per share came in at $1.74, beating estimates of $1.61.
• "We enter fiscal 2027 with exceptional customer demand, expanding production capacity, and multiple new growth platforms beginning to ramp," CEO Jim Anderson said.
• Saxonburg, Pennsylvania-based Coherent forecast first-quarter revenue in the range of $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion, above analysts' estimate of $2.14 billion.
• The company expects first-quarter adjusted profit per share of $1.85 to $2.05, higher than estimates of $1.77 per share.
• In March, Nvidia said it would invest $2 billion in Coherent to support research and development, manufacturing capacity and operations.
(Reporting by Anzar Mehraj in Bengaluru; Editing by Diti Pujara)
USAR稀土全链条提速
重要性4/5 中高
官方业绩材料同时覆盖USAR的现金、亏损、融资、收购和稀土产能建设，直接对应标的且事实密度高；多个关键项目仍处于交割、融资拨付或建设阶段。
中文摘要
核心结论
USA Rare Earth（USAR，美国稀土与先进材料公司）在截至06/30的2026年第二季度继续推进从矿山、分离加工到金属、合金和钕铁硼磁材的整合，政府融资、Serra Verde收购和产能建设构成扩张主线。公司当前收入规模仍小且持续亏损，后续兑现取决于融资里程碑、交易交割、项目建设和商业化进度。
重要性评级
评级：4/5（中高）。文章来自公司官方业绩新闻稿，提供现金、收入、亏损、现金流、政府融资和产能计划等高密度事实，并直接关联USAR。Serra Verde收购、资金拨付和产能目标仍包含未来条件，执行结果尚未完全验证。
关键事实
- 06/30现金及现金等价物为15.301亿美元；2026年第二季度收入582.1万美元，上半年收入1,151.9万美元。
- 第二季度归属于USAR股东的净亏损为1,033.3万美元，上半年为7,732.2万美元；同期经营亏损分别为4,631.4万美元和8,298.9万美元。
- 上半年经营活动现金流出7,532.4万美元，资本开支及设备预付款流出1.08388亿美元；私募配售融资（PIPE融资）带来15亿美元融资收入，融资活动净现金流入14.19331亿美元。
- 06月，公司与美国商务部签署《芯片法案》（CHIPS Act）融资最终协议，最高16亿美元，包括2.77亿美元联邦资金和最高13亿美元高级担保贷款，拨付与项目里程碑挂钩。
- 公司已签署约28亿美元收购Serra Verde Group的最终协议；交易涉及巴西Pela Ema稀土矿及加工厂，并配有15年、100%包销协议和价格下限安排，预计在08月底前完成仍属公司计划。
- 07月，公司签署收购法国Carester约13.6%股权的最终协议；08月完成对Texas Mineral Resources Corp.（TMRC）的收购，取得Round Top项目100%经济权益。
- 南卡罗来纳州Blacksburg工厂目标产能为每年6,400公吨钕铁硼磁体和5,000公吨金属、合金，计划于2028年开始调试；公司预计美国境内磁体总产能达到每年10,000公吨。
- 科罗拉多州Wheat Ridge设施在07月产出商业级镝（Dy）氧化物和钕镨（NdPr）氧化物样品，回收磁材废料预计可满足未来磁性稀土氧化物原料需求的最高30%；Round Top最终可行性研究（DFS）预计于2026年第四季度完成、2027年第一季度发布。
作者观点与证据
文章由公司管理层发布，主张融资协议、资产收购和加工样品进展正在降低建立非亚洲稀土供应链的建设障碍。现金余额、财务报表、已签协议、设施投产和样品产出构成可核验事实；“全球稀土领导者”、项目协同、未来现金流和需求增长属于公司判断。公司同时披露，融资拨付受里程碑约束，收购可能延期或无法完成，项目建设、资本需求、客户订单和盈利能力仍存在不确定性。非公认会计准则（Non-GAAP）亏损指标是补充口径，不能替代公认会计准则数据。
与相关标的的关系
USAR直接对应这份业绩材料。政府融资和PIPE融资提升了项目建设的资金基础，但也伴随里程碑、债务约束和潜在股权稀释；Serra Verde、Carester、TMRC及Round Top将扩大其稀土资源和加工链条。当前收入仅为百万美元级别，经营现金流仍为负，市场对USAR的判断仍需跟踪项目交割、产能爬坡、客户订单和现金消耗。
时效性与限制
公司于08/10发布截至06/30的第二季度及上半年业绩，发布时间仅给出日期，未给出具体时刻。材料主要为公司自述，Serra Verde交易、政府资金拨付、2028年产能和2027年DFS发布时间均为计划或前瞻性表述；公告未提供独立第三方验证或完整商业化订单数据。
后续跟踪
- Serra Verde收购是否按计划完成，以及交割后的债务、整合和包销安排。
- 美国商务部最高16亿美元资金的实际拨付金额与里程碑完成情况。
- Round Top DFS、Wheat Ridge氧化物样品认证和商业化加工进度。
- Stillwater与Blacksburg磁体产能建设、客户订单和经营现金流变化。
英文原文
USA Rare Earth Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results - Mon, 08/10/2026 - 16:30
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Release Details
##
USA Rare Earth Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results
Aug 10, 2026
PDF Version
STILLWATER, Okla., Aug. 10, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- USA Rare Earth, Inc. (Nasdaq: USAR) (the Company), (USAR), a rare earth, critical minerals and advanced materials company, today announced its financial and operational results for the second quarter and six months ended June 30, 2026.
Executive Commentary
“The second quarter of 2026 marked a period of decisive progress for USA Rare Earth, defined by the milestones that bring our integrated global rare earth value chain to life,” said Barbara Humpton, CEO of USA Rare Earth. “We announced our intent to acquire Serra Verde, the only scaled producer of all four magnetic rare earths outside Asia; signed definitive documentation for our funding package with the U.S. Department of Commerce; announced our intent to invest in Carester; and selected Blacksburg, South Carolina, as the site of our second U.S. metal-making and magnet manufacturing facility. We also commissioned our hydrometallurgical facility in Wheat Ridge, Colorado, a critical step that demonstrates our processing capability that lies at the heart of a secure, non-China supply chain.”
Ms. Humpton continued, “With these building blocks in place, USA Rare Earth is entering a new chapter. We are moving from assembling a world-class set of operations to delivering for our customers and driving value for our shareholders. The urgency in the market has never been greater, and we are among the very few companies anywhere positioned to meet it. I am confident we have the right assets, the right operations, and the right team to establish ourselves as the global leader in rare earths, the partner of choice for advanced manufacturers, and to secure the critical materials essential for Western industrial leadership.”
Second Quarter Highlights
Financial Highlights
- The Company’s cash balance as of June 30, 2026 was approximately $1.53 billion
- Revenues for Q2’2026 of $5.8 million
Business Highlights
- Finalized Definitive Agreements with the U.S. Department of Commerce : In June 2026, the Company announced the execution of definitive agreements with the U.S. Department of Commerce, unlocking access to up to $1.6 billion in funding under the Department of Commerce’s CHIPS Act program. The definitive agreements comprise up to $277 million in federal funding and up to $1.3 billion in senior secured loan capacity under the CHIPS Act, with disbursements tied to the achievement of project milestones. These agreements significantly de-risk the Company’s path to full scale production, and the Company views them as a validation of its asset base, its business model, and its growth plans.
- Announced definitive agreement to acquire Serra Verde Group for ~$2.8 billion, creating the global rare earth leader : In April 2026, the Company announced a definitive agreement to acquire 100% of Serra Verde Group, owner of the Pela Ema rare earth mine and processing plant in Goiás, Brazil. The acquisition would secure the only large-scale producer of vital HREEs outside Asia, de-risk upstream supply with a 15-year 100% offtake agreement including price floors, and accelerate the Company’s EBITDA and cash-flow generation.
- Announced investment in Carester and strategic partnership in France : In April 2026, the Company along with InfraVia, the leading independent European private investment platform specialized in real assets and technology investments, announced it had entered into an investment term sheet to take a stake in Carester, a leading French specialist in rare earth processing and separation technologies, subject to the execution of a definitive documentation and closing conditions. The Company believes the platform will unite the technological expertise, process innovation, and production capacity of USA Rare Earth, Less Common Metals (LCM), and Carester to accelerate development and strengthen capabilities across the rare earth value chain.
- Selected South Carolina for new rare earth metal and magnet manufacturing operation : In June 2026, the Company announced the selection of Blacksburg, South Carolina, as the site of a new magnet manufacturing and refined metals operation. The facility is targeting production capacity of 6,400 metric tons per annum (tpa) of NdFeB rare earth magnets and 5,000 tpa of strip-cast, metal and alloy. Combined with the planned expansion at the Company’s Stillwater facility, the Company expects total domestic production capacity to reach 10,000 tpa of NdFeB rare earth magnets and 10,000 tpa of heavy rare earth strip-cast, metal and alloy, aligned with the Company’s business plan and government financing. The project is expected to create about 490 high-skill, high-wage jobs, with commissioning targeted to begin in 2028.
- Commissioned hydrometallurgical demonstration facility, targeting heavy rare earth oxide production in Q3 2026 : In June 2026, the Company announced the commissioning of its hydrometallurgical demonstration facility in Wheat Ridge, Colorado. The facility has commenced an initial campaign to de-risk three processing flowsheets in parallel: ore from Round Top, third-party mixed rare earth carbonate (MREC) feedstock — including material from Serra Verde’s Pela Ema mine — and rare earth magnet swarf recycling. Insights from the campaigns are expected to underpin the Round Top Definitive Feasibility Study, on track for Q4 2026 completion and Q1 2027 publication, and to guide commercial engineering of the planned on-site Round Top processing facility and the Company’s anticipated third-party MREC processing and magnet swarf recycling facility.
- Completed first commercial Yttrium metal production : In April 2026, the Company announced the first commercial pour of 2N–2N5 (99%–99.5% purity) yttrium metal through its wholly-owned subsidiary, LCM, at its facility in Cheshire, United Kingdom. This milestone places the Company among a limited number of producers of commercial-grade yttrium metal operating outside of China. Yttrium is a key material in thermal barrier coatings used on turbine blades and other high-temperature aerospace components, where it enhances oxidation resistance and improves adhesion, helping extend component life under intense thermal and mechanical stress. Yttrium is also used in electronics, energy systems, lasers, superconductors, and advanced ceramics, where its chemical stability and high-temperature performance are essential.
- Expanded the corporate leadership team with additional expertise : In April 2026, the Company announced the appointment of Chaitan Kansal as Chief Commercial Officer. Mr. Kansal brings more than 25 years of experience across the critical minerals, specialty chemicals, and advanced materials sectors. Mr. Kansal’s deep experience across lithium, battery materials, and specialty chemicals - combined with a track record of executing go-to-market strategies at global scale - makes him the ideal leader to drive customer engagement, secure long-term offtake partnerships, and position the Company as the partner of choice for rare earth products across the Western world.
- Awarded $14.2 million grant from the Texas Semiconductor Innovation Fund to accelerate round top heavy rare earth project : In May 2026, the Company announced it was selected to receive a grant for up to $14.2 million from the Texas Semiconductor Innovation Fund to accelerate the development of its Round Top Mountain heavy rare earth project in Hudspeth County, Texas. The award would support a project expected to generate approximately 260 new jobs and to represent more than $1.4 billion in capital investment in West Texas.
- Selected for U.S. Department of Energy Funding Under Critical Minerals Innovation Program : In May 2026, the Company announced that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has selected it to receive up to $19.3 million in funding, subject to final negotiation, under DOE’s Critical Minerals Innovation, Efficiency and Alternatives program. The award will support the development of a pilot-scale rare earth element (“REE”) separations project advancing domestic processing capacity for materials essential to U.S. energy, defense and advanced manufacturing supply chains.
- Expanded commitment to France with plans for additional investment in the French rare earth ecosystem : In June 2026, the Company announced a planned expansion of its metal, alloy, and magnet production in France, building upon its planned LCM Lacq facility and Carester investment. Aligned with the U.S. Department of Commerce funding plan, the initiative projects over €175 million in investment and 300+ new jobs by 2030, supported by French government incentives such as C3IV, potential debt guarantees, and possible direct equity investment into the USAR European subsidiary.
Recent Developments
Subsequent to quarter-end, the Company announced the following achievements and milestones:
- Successfully produced first light and heavy rare earth oxide samples for qualification : In July 2026, the Company announced that its hydrometallurgical facility in Wheat Ridge, Colorado, had successfully produced commercial-grade dysprosium (Dy) oxide and neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide samples from recycled rare earth magnet scrap, known in the industry as “swarf.” This positions USA Rare Earth as one of the few Western producers capable of executing this technically demanding process outside Asia. In addition, this capability broadens the Company’s feedstock options and strengthens the circularity of its value chain, with swarf projected to support up to 30% of future magnetic rare earth oxide feedstock needs.
- Announced retirement of CEO Barbara Humpton, to be succeeded by Thras Moraitis, current CEO of Serra Verde : In July 2026, the Company announced that Barbara Humpton will retire as Chief Executive Officer and Board Director on October 1, 2026. The Company’s Board of Directors named Thras Moraitis, current CEO of the Serra Verde Group (“Serra Verde”) and a highly experienced operator in the rare earths industry, as Ms. Humpton’s successor. Mr. Moraitis will assume the CEO role on October 1, 2026, following the anticipated completion of the Company’s combination with Serra Verde by the end of August. During the interim period, Mr. Moraitis will continue to oversee the combined company’s operations as President.
- Finalized definitive agreements to acquire minority stake in Carester : In July 2026, the Company announced that it had entered into definitive agreements to acquire a strategic minority stake representing approximately 13.6 percent in Carester SAS, a French leader in rare earth processing and separation. InfraVia, acting through its Critical Metals Fund, seeded by the French State as an anchor investor alongside private institutional capital, is acquiring a similar stake in Carester alongside the Company. In addition to targeting healthy returns, the Company and its subsidiary Less Common Metals – Europe will have the ability to purchase a portion of Carester’s oxide output from its Caremag facility. The Company will have access to Carester’s engineering capabilities and related intellectual property for separation, processing, and recycling. In turn, Carester will have access to the Company’s feedstock sources, including Serra Verde and the Round Top deposit in Texas.
- Closed Acquisition of Texas Mineral Resources Corp. (TMRC): In August 2026, the company closed the acquisition of TMRC, to which the Company acquired 100% of the outstanding shares of TMRC. Subsequent to closing, the Company will be the sole operator and 100% economic beneficiary of the Round Top project. This strategic transaction is expected to streamline the Company’s operations, governance and decision-making as it builds the global leader in rare earths and critical minerals.
2026 Outlook
As it builds a global leader in rare earths, in 2026 the Company expects to:
- Complete the Round Top Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) in Q4 2026: This DFS is expected to be completed in Q4 2026 and published in Q1 2027, and is expected to provide the balance of commercial engineering and design and definitive project economics.
- Reach 600 MTPA of run-rate magnet manufacturing capacity at the Stillwater Facility in Q4 2026: This manufacturing capacity build out is expected to support the Company’s growing pipeline of magnet customers across the aerospace, defense, semiconductor, industrial motor, heavy equipment, mobility, healthcare, and energy sectors.
- Evaluate metal making and alloy capacity at LCM to optimize for customer demand across rare earth and critical mineral metals and alloys, and geographic footprint distribution: This capacity build out is expected to support the Company’s internal metal and alloy needs for magnet manufacturing, as well as a growing pipeline of third-party rare earth and critical mineral metal and alloy demand.
Financial Highlights
Three Months Ended June 30, Six Months Ended June 30,
2026 2025 2026 2025
(In thousands, except for per share amounts)
Loss from operations $ (46,314 ) $ (8,804 ) $ (82,989 ) $ (17,522 )
Net loss attributable to USA Rare Earth, Inc. (10,333 ) (142,506 ) (77,322 ) (90,674 )
Net loss per share attributable to USA Rare Earth, Inc. - Diluted (0.05 ) (1.54 ) (0.37 ) (0.99 )
Net cash used in operating activities (56,868 ) (7,909 ) (75,324 ) (18,238 )
Cash and cash equivalents 1,530,147 359,925
Non-GAAP Financial Highlights (1)
Three Months Ended June 30, Six Months Ended June 30,
2026 2025 2026 2025
(In thousands, except for per share amounts)
Adjusted net loss attributable to USA Rare Earth, Inc. $ (33,484 ) $ (19,084 ) $ (57,629 ) $ (28,031 )
Adjusted net loss per share attributable to USA Rare Earth, Inc. - Diluted (0.15 ) (0.21 ) (0.27 ) (0.31 )
______________
(1) Refer to the sections “About Non-GAAP Financial Measures” and “Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” for definitions of our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP amounts, respectively.
Forward-looking Statements
This press release contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements include those relating to the proposed acquisition of Serra Verde Group, the expected timing and completion of the Serra Verde acquisition, the expected benefits of the Serra Verde acquisition, the expected benefits from our transactions with Carester SAS and Texas Mineral Resources Corp. (“TMRC”), development of our magnet production facility at Stillwater and our refined metals production facility at Blacksburg, the benefits expected from the acquisition of Less Common Metals Ltd., the ability to satisfy the funding conditions of and to realize the anticipated benefits of the anticipated funding from the U.S. Department of Commerce, demand for magnets from our production facility once it is operational, the opportunity, size and growth rates of the rare earth element market and the market for related magnets, our ability to process raw materials for magnet production including through swarf processing and development of the Round Top Project, development of our Wheat Ridge, Colorado hydrometallurgical demonstration facility, development and results of the Round Top Project, the ability to raise financing in the future and to comply with restrictive covenants contained in our long-term indebtedness, the future financial performance of our business, the ability to retain or recruit key personnel, the ability to comply with laws and regulations applicable to our business, expansion plans and opportunities, our anticipated operating and financial performance, our business plans, strategy, goals and prospects, our plans for and prospects of our other acquisitions, investments and other business development activities, including the announced Carester transaction, our ability to successfully capitalize on growth opportunities and prospects, and other statements regarding the Company’s expectations for future development, operations, strategies, transactions and financial performance. Such statements can be identified by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts. Words such as “accelerate,” “advance,” “aim,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “can,” “continue,” “could,” “estimate,” “expect,” “growth,” “intend,” “may,” “might,” “plan,” “potential,” “project,” “propose,” “should,” “target,” “vision,” “will,” “would” and similar expressions may identify forward-looking statements, but the absence of these words does not mean that a statement is not forward-looking.
Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and potentially inaccurate assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations, including without limitation: risks that the proposed transactions with Serra Verde and Carester may not be consummated on their anticipated timeline or at all; risks that we may not realize the anticipated benefits of our proposed, current, and prior acquisitions, including transactions with Serra Verde, Carester and TMRC, including expected synergies, financial performance, estimated EBITDA and, in the case of Serra Verde, integration of operations, on the anticipated timeline or at all; ; political, economic, regulatory, tax, currency and other risks associated with Serra Verde’s operations in Brazil and Switzerland following the consummation of the Serra Verde acquisition; the assumption of substantial indebtedness under Serra Verde’s Retained Finance Agreement, which contains restrictive covenants and other requirements that could adversely affect the combined company’s financial flexibility and operations; the potential failure to satisfy the conditions precedent to the offtake agreement entered into in connection with the Serra Verde acquisition, and the possibility that the offtake agreement may be terminated for any reason; the risk that the planned CEO transition is contingent on the timely closing of the Serra Verde acquisition and that any delay or failure of this acquisition to close could result in leadership uncertainty and may require the Board to identify an alternative CEO successor; the ability of our Stillwater magnet manufacturing facility to generate revenue and the ability of our planned Blacksburg facility to commence commercial operations on the timing and with the production capacity anticipated or at all; our limited operating history; our ability to commercially extract minerals from the Round Top deposit on our anticipated timeline or at all; risks that we may experience delays, unforeseen expenses, increased capital costs, and other complications while developing our projects; our ability to raise necessary capital on acceptable terms or at all; potential dilution to existing stockholders and adverse effect on our stock price if we issue additional common stock or equity-linked securities; the volatility of our stock price; the availability of rare earth oxide, metal feedstock and other materials, utilities (including power and water) and equipment in quantities and prices that allow us to develop and commercially operate our Stillwater facility and other facilities; our ability to meet individual customer specifications and produce a consistently high quality product; fluctuations in demand for and prices of neo magnets and our other products, including without limitation as a result of dumping, predatory pricing and other tactics by the Company’s competitors or state actors or the overall competitive environment; our ability to achieve positive cash flow or profitability or the ability to access cash flow within our corporate structure due to restrictions contained in our financing agreements; our ability to convert current commercial discussions and/or memorandums of understanding with customers for the sale of our neo magnets and other products into definitive orders; our dependence, in part, on the growth of existing and emerging uses for neo magnets; the risk that additional manufacturing, refining and mining competitors could result in a reduction in revenue; geopolitical developments or disruptions, such as changes in the political environment, export/import or environmental policy of the People’s Republic of China, the United States or other countries in which we operate or sell products or otherwise; our designation on an export control list by China which has had and is expected to continue to have an adverse impact on our ability to source key raw materials and supplies from China; war, terrorism, natural disasters or public health emergencies; our ability to retain or recruit key personnel; environmental, health and safety regulations; the receipt of funding from the U.S. Department of Commerce is subject to the achievement of milestones which may not be achieved on the expected timeline or at all; and our ability to comply with requirements for federal, state and local government incentives and financing.
Additional risks and detailed information regarding factors that may cause actual results to differ materially has been and will be included in the Company’s filings with the SEC, including the Company’s most recently filed Annual Report on Form 10-K and any subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and subsequent filings. Any forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this press release (or such other date as is specified in such statements), and the Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events or developments.
About Non-GAAP Financial Measures
This press release includes certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted net loss attributable to USA Rare Earth, Inc., and adjusted net loss per share attributable to USA Rare Earth, Inc. (defined as follows):
- Adjusted net loss attributable to USA Rare Earth, Inc. is defined as net loss attributable to USA Rare Earth, Inc. adjusted for declared and deemed dividends, and interest accretion, and loss (gain) on fair market value of financial instruments, net.
- Adjusted net loss per share attributable to USA Rare Earth, Inc. - Diluted is defined as adjusted net loss attributable to USA Rare Earth, Inc. divided by weighted average diluted shares outstanding.
Generally, a non-GAAP financial measure is a numerical measure of a company’s performance, financial position, or cash flows that either excludes or includes amounts that are not normally excluded or included in the most directly comparable measure calculated and presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States of America, or GAAP. These non-GAAP financial measures do not reflect a comprehensive system of accounting, differ from GAAP measures with the same captions, and may differ from non-GAAP financial measures with the same or similar captions that are used by other companies. As such, these non-GAAP measures should be considered as a supplement to, and not as a substitute for, or superior to, financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP.
The Company believes these non-GAAP measures of financial results provide useful supplemental information to management and investors regarding certain financial and business trends related to the Company’s financial condition and results of operations, and as a supplemental tool for investors to use in evaluating its ongoing operating results and trends and in comparing its financial measures with other companies that present similar non-GAAP financial measures. The Company uses these non-GAAP financial measures to analyze its operating performance and future prospects, develop internal budgets and financial goals, and to facilitate period-to-period comparisons. The Company believes these non-GAAP financial measures reflect an additional way of viewing aspects of its operations that, when viewed with its GAAP results, provide a more complete understanding of factors and trends affecting its business. Current and prospective investors should review the Company’s audited annual and unaudited interim financial statements, which are filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, and not rely on any single financial measure to evaluate our business.
Conference Call to Discuss Financial Results
The Company will hold a conference call on Monday, August 10, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET to discuss its second quarter and six months ended June 30, 2026 results. Please see below for dial-in information.
LIVE CONFERENCE CALL:
Monday, August 10, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET
US / Canada Toll-Free: +1 (833) 890-8030
Local / International Toll: +1 (412) 564-6268
CONFERENCE CALL REPLAY:
Available approximately three hours after conclusion of the live call.
Expiration: September 10, 2026
US/Canada Toll-Free: +1 (855) 669-9658
International Toll: +1 (412) 317-0088
Access code: 7520719
Investors may also access the live call and the replay over the internet on the “Events” page of the Company’s investor website located at www.usare.com or at https://event.choruscall.com/mediaframe/webcast.html?webcastid=SCYm7iDr.
Disclosure Information
USA Rare Earth uses the investor relations section on its website as means of complying with its disclosure obligations under Regulation FD. Accordingly, investors should monitor USA Rare Earth’s investor relations website in addition to following USA Rare Earth’s press releases, SEC filings, and public conference calls and webcasts.
About USA Rare Earth
USA Rare Earth, Inc. (Nasdaq: USAR) is building a fully integrated rare earth and permanent magnet value chain across the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Brazil. Through its ownership of Less Common Metals (LCM), one of the world’s leading producers of rare earth metals and alloys, its development of magnet manufacturing capacity in Stillwater, Oklahoma, the Pela Ema mine in Brazil (subject to closing the SVG transaction) and the Round Top deposit in Texas, USA Rare Earth operates across the entire value chain from mining to metal-making, alloy production and neodymium magnet manufacturing. USA Rare Earth is establishing a secure, Western-aligned supply of materials essential to the aerospace and defense, semiconductor, energy, data center, physical AI, mobility, healthcare and industrial sectors.
For more information, visit www.usare.com.
Investor Relations Contact
J.B. Lowe, CFA
VP, Head of Investor Relations
ir@USARE.com
Media Relations Contact
Collected Strategies
Dan Moore / Scott Bisang
USAR-CS@collectedstrategies.com
USA Rare Earth, Inc.
Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets
(Unaudited)
June 30,
2026 December 31,
2025
(In thousands)
ASSETS
Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents $ 1,530,147 $ 359,925
Accounts receivable 6,270 3,764
Inventories 50,138 18,535
Prepaid expenses and other current assets 86,034 3,151
Total current assets 1,672,589 385,375
Property, plant and equipment, net 146,751 86,449
Mineral interests 17,339 17,339
Goodwill 134,848 134,848
Other intangible assets, net 65,899 68,612
Equipment deposits 46,904 1,879
Operating lease right-of-use assets 2,151 321
Deferred arrangement costs 912,091 —
Other assets, non-current 255 176
Total assets $ 2,998,827 $ 694,999
LIABILITIES, MEZZANINE AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY
Liabilities
Current liabilities
Accounts payable $ 17,367 $ 11,069
Accrued liabilities 31,679 14,073
Contract liabilities, current 1,328 10,500
Note payable — 1,849
Finance and operating leases, current 640 420
Total current liabilities 51,014 37,911
Deferred grant income 8,482 8,200
Finance and operating leases, non-current 2,556 777
Warrant and earnout liabilities 364,189 128,205
Deferred tax liability 15,665 16,715
Contract liabilities, non-current 9,602 —
Total liabilities 451,508 191,808
Mezzanine equity 10,347 8,905
Stockholders' equity 2,536,972 494,286
Total liabilities, mezzanine equity, and stockholders' equity $ 2,998,827 $ 694,999
USA Rare Earth, Inc.
Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations
(Unaudited)
Three Months Ended June 30, Six Months Ended June 30,
2026 2025 2026 2025
(In thousands, except per share amounts)
Revenue $ 5,821 $ — $ 11,519 $ —
Cost of product revenue 7,404 — 12,996 —
Gross loss (1,583 ) — (1,477 ) —
Operating expenses:
Selling, general and administrative 32,607 6,227 53,782 13,256
Research and development 10,768 2,577 25,017 4,266
Amortization of intangible assets 1,356 — 2,713 —
Total operating expenses 44,731 8,804 81,512 17,522
Loss from operations (46,314 ) (8,804 ) (82,989 ) (17,522 )
Other income (expense), net 33,838 (133,909 ) 1,868 (73,509 )
Loss before income taxes (12,476 ) (142,713 ) (81,121 ) (91,031 )
Benefit from income taxes (513 ) — (1,090 ) —
Net loss $ (11,963 ) $ (142,713 ) $ (80,031 ) $ (91,031 )
Net loss attributable to non-controlling interest $ (1,630 ) $ (207 ) $ (2,709 ) $ (357 )
Net loss attributable to USA Rare Earth, Inc. (10,333 ) (142,506 ) (77,322 ) (90,674 )
USA Rare Earth, Inc.
Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows
(Unaudited)
Six Months Ended June 30,
2026 2025
(In thousands)
Cash flows from operating activities:
Net loss $ (80,031 ) $ (91,031 )
Non-cash adjustments 36,598 78,080
Changes in assets and liabilities (31,891 ) (5,287 )
Net cash used in operating activities $ (75,324 ) $ (18,238 )
Cash flows from investing activities:
Capital expenditures and equipment deposits $ (108,388 ) $ (6,297 )
Net cash used in investing activities $ (108,388 ) $ (6,297 )
Cash flows from financing activities:
Reverse merger costs $ — $ 45,717
Issuance costs (51,003 ) (8,281 )
Proceeds from issuance of common stock under PIPE financing 1,500,000 75,000
Proceeds from exercise of warrants 68 21,951
Finance leases (140 ) —
Other (29,594 ) (4,822 )
Net cash provided by financing activities $ 1,419,331 $ 129,565
Effect of exchange rate differences on cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash $ (1,175 ) $ —
Net change in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash $ 1,234,444 $ 105,030
Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash, beginning of period 359,925 16,761
Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash, end of period $ 1,594,369 $ 121,791
USA Rare Earth, Inc.
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
(Unaudited)
This press release includes certain non-GAAP financial information. The following table reconciles the GAAP financial information to the non-GAAP financial information.
Three Months Ended June 30, Six Months Ended June 30,
2026 2025 2026 2025
(In thousands, except for per share amounts)
Net loss attributable to USA Rare Earth, Inc. $ (10,333 ) $ (142,506 ) $ (77,322 ) $ (90,674 )
Declared and deemed dividends, and interest accretion (733 ) (11,240 ) (1,442 ) (11,719 )
Loss (gain) on fair market value of financial instruments, net (22,418 ) 134,662 21,135 74,362
Adjusted net loss attributable to USA Rare Earth, Inc. (1) $ (33,484 ) $ (19,084 ) $ (57,629 ) $ (28,031 )
Adjusted net loss per share attributable to USA Rare Earth, Inc. - Diluted (1) $ (0.15 ) $ (0.21 ) $ (0.27 ) $ (0.31 )
_____________
(1) Refer to the section “About Non-GAAP Financial Measures” for an explanation of our use of non-GAAP financial measures and the definitions of such measures.
EMAIL ALERTS
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General: info@usare.com Investors: ir@usare.com 813-867-6155
©2026 USA Rare Earth.
All rights reserved.
美股事实摘要
- 报价事实：上涨 15 / 下跌 4 / 震荡 0；广度 78.95%；平均较前交易日 +5.06%。
- 公开新闻/财报讨论覆盖：19 / 19 个标的；新闻条目 152 条。
公开数据对照
| 标的 | IBKR 当前价 | K线收盘 | K线来源 | 差异 | 5D | 20D | K线行数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MSFT | 490.11 | 492.43 | Yahoo Finance chart API | -0.47% | +1.02% | +24.47% | 164 |
NVDA | 224.32 | 224.09 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +0.10% | +2.22% | +5.45% | 283 |
MRVL | 220.70 | 217.08 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +1.67% | +2.87% | +5.25% | 164 |
GFS | 53.50 | 53.18 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +0.60% | +7.52% | -13.40% | 164 |
APLD | 31.26 | 31.15 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +0.35% | +4.29% | +7.30% | 164 |
USAR | 18.42 | 18.41 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +0.05% | +7.28% | +6.35% | 164 |
SOXX | 550.00 | 546.61 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +0.62% | +3.00% | -1.56% | 285 |
SOXL | 144.91 | 142.16 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +1.93% | +7.64% | -14.13% | 164 |
FTXL | 237.25 | 237.25 | Yahoo Finance chart API | 0.00% | +2.75% | -1.52% | 285 |
PSI | 151.98 | 150.97 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +0.67% | +5.72% | -1.77% | 285 |
DRAM | 55.61 | 54.80 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +1.48% | +1.97% | -4.53% | 91 |
KMEM | 17.77 | 17.77 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +0.00% | +0.11% | -7.16% | 30 |
VRT | 290.66 | 288.36 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +0.80% | +3.75% | -5.32% | 283 |
COHR | 347.28 | 355.64 | Yahoo Finance chart API | -2.35% | +8.35% | +18.79% | 282 |
CRCL | 70.90 | 71.28 | Yahoo Finance chart API | -0.53% | +12.64% | +8.51% | 281 |
SPCX | 146.56 | 146.15 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +0.28% | +34.99% | +8.04% | 42 |
GOOG | 343.10 | 342.37 | Yahoo Finance chart API | +0.21% | -4.93% | -7.52% | 164 |
NBIS | 255.05 | 259.20 | Yahoo Finance chart API | -1.60% | +18.36% | +29.92% | 164 |
PLTR | 170.52 | 171.04 | Yahoo Finance chart API | -0.30% | +7.96% | +27.87% | 124 |
期权链事实
观察标的：MSFT, NVDA, MRVL, GFS, APLD, USAR, SOXX, SOXL, FTXL, PSI, DRAM, KMEM, VRT, COHR, CRCL, SPCX, GOOG, SPY, QQQ, PLTR, NBIS
来源：Yahoo Finance 公开期权链
覆盖：20 / 21 个观察标的。
| 标的 | ATM IV | Put/Call Vol | Put/Call OI | Max Pain | 最大OI | 期限结构 | Vol/OI异常 | 大单数 | 新闻数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MSFT | 27.20% | 0.83 | 0.54 | 420.00 | C 550.00 (53,522) / P 350.00 (11,830) | 8D 27.20% / 29D 27.05% / 64D 28.32% / 99D 31.78% | 0 | 5 | |
NVDA | 33.67% | 0.41 | 0.81 | 202.50 | C 180.00 (106,215) / P 180.00 (69,400) | 8D 33.67% / 29D 39.91% / 64D 38.65% / 99D 40.49% | 3 | 5 | |
MRVL | 72.49% | 0.72 | 0.91 | 200.00 | C 280.00 (15,098) / P 100.00 (8,785) | 8D 72.49% / 29D 82.79% / 64D 80.16% / 99D 78.89% | 5 | 5 | |
GFS | 60.45% | 0.37 | 0.68 | 55.00 | C 70.00 (18,247) / P 45.00 (3,075) | 8D 60.45% / 36D 59.92% / 64D 63.66% / 155D 67.52% | 1 | 0 | 5 |
APLD | 86.91% | 0.40 | 0.43 | 30.00 | C 35.00 (18,523) / P 30.00 (4,248) | 8D 86.91% / 29D 77.93% / 43D 91.50% / 64D 95.50% | 0 | 0 | 5 |
USAR | 86.08% | 0.65 | 0.87 | 17.50 | C 23.00 (8,817) / P 16.00 (8,069) | 8D 86.08% / 29D 84.91% / 43D 81.45% / 127D 95.34% | 0 | 0 | 5 |
SOXX | 48.15% | 0.80 | 1.29 | 525.00 | C 550.00 (13,732) / P 490.00 (11,042) | 8D 48.15% / 29D 45.51% / 64D 48.02% / 99D 48.78% | 8 | 5 | |
SOXL | 123.65% | 2.75 | 2.66 | 110.00 | C 200.00 (3,126) / P 70.00 (12,801) | 8D 123.65% / 29D 126.34% / 43D 131.01% / 99D 134.44% | 6 | 0 | 5 |
FTXL | 52.56% | 0.29 | 0.38 | 225.00 | C 280.00 (142) / P 280.00 (68) | 8D 52.56% / 36D 0.00% / 127D 0.00% / 218D 55.70% | 0 | 0 | 5 |
PSI | 52.62% | 0.21 | 0.18 | 145.00 | C 205.00 (1,150) / P 135.00 (62) | 8D 52.62% / 36D 59.24% / 99D 53.22% / 190D 52.77% | 0 | 0 | 5 |
DRAM | 71.90% | 0.47 | 0.61 | 57.00 | C 60.00 (107,966) / P 60.00 (50,884) | 8D 71.90% / 29D 71.39% / 64D 70.31% / 99D 70.62% | 2 | 5 | |
VRT | 61.88% | 5.03 | 1.95 | 290.00 | C 400.00 (2,794) / P 210.00 (24,902) | 8D 61.88% / 29D 59.03% / 64D 60.98% / 99D 64.62% | 1 | 0 | 5 |
COHR | 110.09% | 0.89 | 1.22 | 320.00 | C 380.00 (2,383) / P 240.00 (2,436) | 8D 110.09% / 29D 92.73% / 64D 85.87% / 99D 89.83% | 3 | 5 | |
CRCL | 74.39% | 0.62 | 0.80 | 71.00 | C 80.00 (8,357) / P 75.00 (7,164) | 8D 74.39% / 29D 67.08% / 64D 78.44% / 127D 81.48% | 0 | 0 | 5 |
SPCX | 75.95% | 0.92 | 0.95 | 135.00 | C 450.00 (53,068) / P 125.00 (41,995) | 8D 75.95% / 29D 70.26% / 64D 69.90% / 99D 71.96% | 8 | 5 | |
GOOG | 29.83% | 0.31 | 0.91 | 360.00 | C 370.00 (13,132) / P 350.00 (11,577) | 8D 29.83% / 29D 29.83% / 64D 30.53% / 99D 33.95% | 2 | 5 | |
SPY | 10.05% | 8.09 | 6.57 | 773.00 | C 875.00 (23,146) / P 500.00 (301,237) | 7D 10.05% / 29D 12.49% / 64D 14.42% / 99D 15.69% | 8 | 0 | |
QQQ | 15.78% | 0.84 | 1.21 | 720.00 | C 700.00 (18,571) / P 680.00 (21,186) | 7D 15.78% / 29D 18.78% / 64D 20.46% / 99D 21.73% | 8 | 0 | |
PLTR | 47.12% | 0.60 | 0.90 | 136.00 | C 35.00 (20,723) / P 110.00 (14,823) | 8D 47.12% / 29D 46.00% / 64D 47.87% / 99D 54.73% | 2 | 5 | |
NBIS | 112.04% | 0.70 | 1.08 | 195.00 | C 250.00 (29,366) / P 120.00 (24,905) | 8D 112.04% / 29D 102.71% / 64D 101.24% / 99D 104.31% | 8 | 5 |
最新大单 / 异常成交
大单活动只保留最近一次成功的 Yahoo 期权链快照，不是逐笔成交 tape。 当前显示：本次快照 Top 80。
| 观察时间 | 标的 | 合约 | 方向 | Strike | 到期 | Volume | OI | IV | Vol/OI | 估算权利金 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | QQQ | QQQ261120P00725000 | put | 725.00 | 2026-11-20 | 11,483 | 1,783 | 19.47% | 6.44 | $34,374,361 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | QQQ | QQQ261120C00745000 | call | 745.00 | 2026-11-20 | 11,341 | 531 | 22.74% | 21.36 | $28,437,558 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | QQQ | QQQ261120P00880000 | put | 880.00 | 2026-11-20 | 1,680 | 0 | 22.56% | N/A | $26,265,960 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NBIS | NBIS260821C00190000 | call | 190.00 | 2026-08-21 | 3,716 | 6,761 | 113.48% | 0.55 | $25,956,260 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SPY | SPY261120P00640000 | put | 640.00 | 2026-11-20 | 75,026 | 675 | 25.10% | 111.15 | $23,558,164 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SPCX | SPCX260821C00150000 | call | 150.00 | 2026-08-21 | 40,229 | 35,706 | 78.91% | 1.13 | $22,327,095 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NBIS | NBIS260821C00200000 | call | 200.00 | 2026-08-21 | 3,009 | 8,387 | 113.23% | 0.36 | $18,204,450 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NBIS | NBIS260821C00250000 | call | 250.00 | 2026-08-21 | 7,242 | 29,366 | 110.46% | 0.25 | $16,348,815 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NBIS | NBIS260821C00230000 | call | 230.00 | 2026-08-21 | 4,463 | 9,164 | 107.94% | 0.49 | $15,642,815 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | MSFT | MSFT260821P00500000 | put | 500.00 | 2026-08-21 | 12,328 | 6,588 | 27.12% | 1.87 | $15,502,460 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | QQQ | QQQ261016C00770000 | call | 770.00 | 2026-10-16 | 19,233 | 3,712 | 19.57% | 5.18 | $15,396,017 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SPCX | SPCX261120C00145000 | call | 145.00 | 2026-11-20 | 6,453 | 1,106 | 74.38% | 5.83 | $14,874,165 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | QQQ | QQQ261016C00360000 | call | 360.00 | 2026-10-16 | 400 | 400 | 86.96% | 1.00 | $14,629,400 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NVDA | NVDA260821C00220000 | call | 220.00 | 2026-08-21 | 19,967 | 67,363 | 36.26% | 0.30 | $14,476,075 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SPY | SPY261120P00520000 | put | 520.00 | 2026-11-20 | 150,010 | 318 | 37.11% | 471.73 | $13,950,930 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | PLTR | PLTR260821C00035000 | call | 35.00 | 2026-08-21 | 1,020 | 20,723 | 325.00% | 0.05 | $13,877,100 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NVDA | NVDA260821C00215000 | call | 215.00 | 2026-08-21 | 12,685 | 39,721 | 37.72% | 0.32 | $13,794,938 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NBIS | NBIS260821C00187500 | call | 187.50 | 2026-08-21 | 1,847 | 404 | 113.09% | 4.57 | $13,339,957 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NVDA | NVDA260821C00225000 | call | 225.00 | 2026-08-21 | 29,891 | 43,430 | 34.78% | 0.69 | $13,152,040 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SPCX | SPCX261016P00135000 | put | 135.00 | 2026-10-16 | 11,477 | 6,848 | 68.59% | 1.68 | $12,854,240 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SPCX | SPCX260821C00140000 | call | 140.00 | 2026-08-21 | 12,006 | 13,540 | 76.37% | 0.89 | $12,426,210 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SPCX | SPCX260821C00145000 | call | 145.00 | 2026-08-21 | 14,836 | 18,453 | 76.37% | 0.80 | $11,201,180 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | MSFT | MSFT260821C00490000 | call | 490.00 | 2026-08-21 | 11,246 | 10,597 | 26.91% | 1.06 | $10,458,780 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | QQQ | QQQ261120P00825000 | put | 825.00 | 2026-11-20 | 978 | 489 | 17.23% | 2.00 | $9,937,458 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NBIS | NBIS260821C00225000 | call | 225.00 | 2026-08-21 | 2,553 | 697 | 108.73% | 3.66 | $9,931,170 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SPCX | SPCX260821C00120000 | call | 120.00 | 2026-08-21 | 3,715 | 22,340 | 78.32% | 0.17 | $9,854,038 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | PLTR | PLTR261120P00330000 | put | 330.00 | 2026-11-20 | 536 | 325 | 160.69% | 1.65 | $9,783,340 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NVDA | NVDA260821C00230000 | call | 230.00 | 2026-08-21 | 34,876 | 90,638 | 34.20% | 0.38 | $8,509,744 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | PLTR | PLTR260821C00170000 | call | 170.00 | 2026-08-21 | 15,026 | 15,933 | 48.34% | 0.94 | $8,452,125 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NBIS | NBIS260821C00240000 | call | 240.00 | 2026-08-21 | 2,776 | 12,341 | 110.71% | 0.22 | $7,925,480 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NVDA | NVDA260911C00200000 | call | 200.00 | 2026-09-11 | 2,932 | 204 | 46.95% | 14.37 | $7,887,080 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SPCX | SPCX260821C00135000 | call | 135.00 | 2026-08-21 | 5,775 | 20,119 | 75.46% | 0.29 | $7,882,875 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NBIS | NBIS260821C00210000 | call | 210.00 | 2026-08-21 | 1,483 | 2,508 | 107.86% | 0.59 | $7,596,667 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SOXX | SOXX261016C00600000 | call | 600.00 | 2026-10-16 | 3,272 | 1,142 | 46.78% | 2.87 | $7,214,760 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | QQQ | QQQ261120P00800000 | put | 800.00 | 2026-11-20 | 914 | 168 | 15.78% | 5.44 | $7,159,819 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NBIS | NBIS260821C00220000 | call | 220.00 | 2026-08-21 | 1,631 | 7,190 | 108.15% | 0.23 | $6,980,680 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NVDA | NVDA260821C00210000 | call | 210.00 | 2026-08-21 | 4,588 | 36,734 | 41.80% | 0.12 | $6,962,290 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SPCX | SPCX260821P00145000 | put | 145.00 | 2026-08-21 | 10,840 | 7,745 | 75.54% | 1.40 | $6,856,300 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | MSFT | MSFT260821C00410000 | call | 410.00 | 2026-08-21 | 825 | 11,557 | 51.37% | 0.07 | $6,812,437 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NVDA | NVDA261016C00230000 | call | 230.00 | 2026-10-16 | 5,114 | 30,622 | 40.27% | 0.17 | $6,392,500 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SPCX | SPCX260821P00140000 | put | 140.00 | 2026-08-21 | 15,331 | 13,045 | 74.59% | 1.18 | $6,209,055 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SPY | SPY261120C00775000 | call | 775.00 | 2026-11-20 | 2,393 | 3,209 | 17.17% | 0.75 | $6,203,853 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NBIS | NBIS261016C00240000 | call | 240.00 | 2026-10-16 | 1,140 | 787 | 102.55% | 1.45 | $6,044,850 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SPCX | SPCX260821C00160000 | call | 160.00 | 2026-08-21 | 21,004 | 43,295 | 83.06% | 0.49 | $6,038,650 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SPCX | SPCX260821C00115000 | call | 115.00 | 2026-08-21 | 1,898 | 9,744 | 102.49% | 0.19 | $6,030,895 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | MSFT | MSFT260821C00500000 | call | 500.00 | 2026-08-21 | 12,183 | 47,426 | 25.98% | 0.26 | $5,756,468 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | QQQ | QQQ261016C00800000 | call | 800.00 | 2026-10-16 | 18,878 | 14,890 | 18.99% | 1.27 | $5,729,473 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NVDA | NVDA261016C00245000 | call | 245.00 | 2026-10-16 | 7,822 | 9,567 | 39.36% | 0.82 | $5,592,730 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SPCX | SPCX260821C00130000 | call | 130.00 | 2026-08-21 | 2,987 | 16,239 | 74.22% | 0.18 | $5,219,783 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NVDA | NVDA260821P00225000 | put | 225.00 | 2026-08-21 | 10,211 | 7,787 | 32.57% | 1.31 | $5,105,500 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NBIS | NBIS260821C00300000 | call | 300.00 | 2026-08-21 | 8,713 | 4,985 | 114.29% | 1.75 | $5,097,105 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SPCX | SPCX260821C00155000 | call | 155.00 | 2026-08-21 | 12,621 | 13,159 | 80.88% | 0.96 | $5,048,400 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NBIS | NBIS260821C00235000 | call | 235.00 | 2026-08-21 | 1,548 | 528 | 109.89% | 2.93 | $4,914,900 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SPCX | SPCX261120P00115000 | put | 115.00 | 2026-11-20 | 6,474 | 1,527 | 71.34% | 4.24 | $4,887,870 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NVDA | NVDA260821C00207500 | call | 207.50 | 2026-08-21 | 2,711 | 7,022 | 45.53% | 0.39 | $4,723,918 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | DRAM | DRAM261016C00060000 | call | 60.00 | 2026-10-16 | 10,186 | 7,519 | 71.61% | 1.35 | $4,685,560 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NBIS | NBIS260821C00275000 | call | 275.00 | 2026-08-21 | 3,942 | 173 | 110.80% | 22.79 | $4,602,285 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NVDA | NVDA260821C00222500 | call | 222.50 | 2026-08-21 | 7,990 | 9,847 | 35.13% | 0.81 | $4,554,300 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SOXX | SOXX261016C00650000 | call | 650.00 | 2026-10-16 | 4,126 | 1,845 | 46.96% | 2.24 | $4,538,600 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NVDA | NVDA261016C00220000 | call | 220.00 | 2026-10-16 | 2,583 | 85,228 | 41.02% | 0.03 | $4,481,505 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SPCX | SPCX261016C00160000 | call | 160.00 | 2026-10-16 | 3,613 | 15,521 | 72.03% | 0.23 | $4,471,088 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SPCX | SPCX261016C00150000 | call | 150.00 | 2026-10-16 | 2,802 | 12,321 | 71.51% | 0.23 | $4,455,180 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | MRVL | MRVL260821P00390000 | put | 390.00 | 2026-08-21 | 255 | 0 | 189.06% | N/A | $4,394,925 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | QQQ | QQQ261120P00805000 | put | 805.00 | 2026-11-20 | 501 | 650 | 15.61% | 0.77 | $4,144,022 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NBIS | NBIS260821C00260000 | call | 260.00 | 2026-08-21 | 2,334 | 2,927 | 111.57% | 0.80 | $4,137,015 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | QQQ | QQQ261120C00480000 | call | 480.00 | 2026-11-20 | 164 | 81 | 55.53% | 2.02 | $4,096,310 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SPCX | SPCX261016C00180000 | call | 180.00 | 2026-10-16 | 5,410 | 7,964 | 73.55% | 0.68 | $4,057,500 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NVDA | NVDA261120C00200000 | call | 200.00 | 2026-11-20 | 1,170 | 23,590 | 46.31% | 0.05 | $4,033,575 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SPCX | SPCX260821P00150000 | put | 150.00 | 2026-08-21 | 4,327 | 18,360 | 76.71% | 0.24 | $3,980,840 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NBIS | NBIS260821C00270000 | call | 270.00 | 2026-08-21 | 3,022 | 3,218 | 108.34% | 0.94 | $3,943,710 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | GOOG | GOOG261120C00320000 | call | 320.00 | 2026-11-20 | 995 | 874 | 39.58% | 1.14 | $3,818,313 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | COHR | COHR260821P00350000 | put | 350.00 | 2026-08-21 | 1,801 | 277 | 108.11% | 6.50 | $3,809,115 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NVDA | NVDA260821C00227500 | call | 227.50 | 2026-08-21 | 11,458 | 7,315 | 34.40% | 1.57 | $3,781,140 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SPCX | SPCX261016C00140000 | call | 140.00 | 2026-10-16 | 1,760 | 4,686 | 72.33% | 0.38 | $3,625,600 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SPCX | SPCX261120C00150000 | call | 150.00 | 2026-11-20 | 1,693 | 1,647 | 73.45% | 1.03 | $3,504,510 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NBIS | NBIS261016C00200000 | call | 200.00 | 2026-10-16 | 454 | 1,996 | 104.19% | 0.23 | $3,457,210 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NVDA | NVDA261120C00250000 | call | 250.00 | 2026-11-20 | 3,470 | 24,787 | 41.43% | 0.14 | $3,452,650 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | PLTR | PLTR261120P00400000 | put | 400.00 | 2026-11-20 | 137 | 0 | 0.00% | N/A | $3,451,441 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | NVDA | NVDA260821C00190000 | call | 190.00 | 2026-08-21 | 967 | 17,875 | 64.70% | 0.05 | $3,340,985 |
| 2026-08-13 03:53:55.337Z | SOXX | SOXX261120P00565000 | put | 565.00 | 2026-11-20 | 544 | 553 | 45.61% | 0.98 | $3,255,840 |
技术指标事实
| 标的 | 类型 | Benchmark | 最新价 | Strength | 日线九转 | 1H 支撑 / 压力 | 4H 支撑 / 压力 | 1D 支撑 / 压力 | 数据限制 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MSFT | 美股/ETF | SPY | 489.0000 | 19.17 | 低序列第1根 | 487.2982 (-0.35%；布林下轨) / 495.7621 (+1.38%；MA5/摆动低点/MA10) | 486.8323 (-0.44%；布林下轨) / 491.6500 (+0.54%；摆动高点) | 488.5890 (-0.78%；MA10) / 500.4300 (+1.62%；MA5) | - |
NVDA | 美股/ETF | SPY | 223.7700 | 5.94 | 高序列第1根 | 221.0993 (-1.19%；摆动高点/MA30/MA60) / 224.5287 (+0.34%；摆动高点/MA10/MA5) | 222.5105 (-0.56%；MA5/摆动高点) / 225.3385 (+0.70%；摆动高点/区间极值/布林上轨) | 220.4180 (-1.64%；MA5) / 224.7600 (+0.30%；摆动高点) | - |
MRVL | 美股/ETF | SPY | 219.7000 | 17.99 | 高序列第2根 | 219.2567 (-0.20%；MA5/摆动低点/摆动高点) / 221.8700 (+0.99%；摆动高点) | 218.5380 (-0.53%；摆动高点/MA5) / 221.8700 (+0.99%；摆动高点) | 214.1810 (-1.34%；MA5/摆动高点) / 218.2600 (+0.54%；摆动高点) | - |
GFS | 美股/ETF | SPY | 53.2900 | -7.11 | 高序列第2根 | 53.2643 (-0.05%；MA10/MA5/摆动高点) / 53.7200 (+0.81%；摆动高点) | 52.9600 (-0.62%；摆动低点) / 53.8800 (+1.11%；摆动高点) | 53.0743 (-0.20%；MA20/布林中轨/摆动高点) / 55.3600 (+4.10%；摆动低点/摆动高点) | - |
APLD | 美股/ETF | SPY | 31.0000 | 9.35 | 高序列第1根 | 30.5946 (-1.31%；摆动高点/MA30) / 31.0005 (+0.00%；MA10/MA20/布林中轨) | 30.7650 (-0.76%；摆动高点) / 31.1383 (+0.45%；MA5/摆动高点) | 30.5100 (-2.05%；摆动低点) / 31.4800 (+1.06%；摆动高点) | - |
USAR | 美股/ETF | SPY | 18.3600 | 12.88 | 高序列第9根已完成，延续1根 | 18.2204 (-0.76%；布林下轨/摆动低点) / 18.3920 (+0.17%；MA5) | 17.9857 (-2.04%；摆动低点/MA30/摆动高点) / 18.5703 (+1.15%；MA20/布林中轨/MA10) | 17.2950 (-6.06%；摆动低点/MA10) / 18.6200 (+1.14%；MA5) | - |
SOXX | 美股/ETF | SPY | 548.4000 | 5.25 | 高序列第2根 | 547.3158 (-0.20%；MA20/布林中轨/摆动低点) / 554.1391 (+1.05%；摆动高点/区间极值/布林上轨) | 545.6027 (-0.51%；摆动高点/MA5) / 552.1820 (+0.69%；摆动高点/布林上轨) | 540.4230 (-1.13%；MA30) / 547.9100 (+0.24%；摆动高点) | - |
SOXL | 美股/ETF | SPY | 143.2100 | 15.79 | 高序列第2根 | 142.4460 (-0.53%；MA5) / 143.8260 (+0.43%；MA10) | 142.8000 (-0.29%；摆动低点) / 144.3400 (+0.79%；摆动高点) | 137.2952 (-3.42%；MA120) / 144.3400 (+1.53%；摆动高点) | - |
FTXL | 美股/ETF | SPY | 237.2500 | 4.51 | 高序列第2根 | 237.0581 (-0.08%；摆动高点/摆动低点/MA5) / 240.0800 (+1.19%；摆动高点) | 236.7260 (-0.22%；摆动高点/MA5/摆动低点) / 240.4155 (+1.33%；摆动低点/MA120/摆动高点) | 235.3690 (-0.79%；摆动低点/MA30) / 237.8200 (+0.24%；摆动高点) | - |
PSI | 美股/ETF | SPY | 151.9700 | 7.81 | 高序列第2根 | 149.9552 (-1.33%；MA20/布林中轨/摆动低点) / 152.2558 (+0.19%；MA5/MA10/摆动高点) | 150.5233 (-0.95%；摆动高点) / 152.0695 (+0.07%；布林上轨) | 150.5350 (-0.29%；摆动高点/摆动低点) / 155.7292 (+3.15%；MA60/摆动高点) | - |
DRAM | 美股/ETF | SPY | 55.3000 | 6.63 | 高序列第1根 | 55.0280 (-0.49%；摆动低点/MA10/MA5) / 56.7348 (+2.59%；布林上轨) | 53.8700 (-2.59%；MA5) / 55.3791 (+0.14%；布林上轨/摆动高点/MA120) | 52.5545 (-4.10%；MA20/布林中轨) / 55.3940 (+1.08%；摆动高点/摆动低点/MA30) | - |
KMEM | 美股/ETF | SPY | 17.7700 | N/A | 高序列第1根 | 17.5375 (-1.31%；摆动低点/摆动高点) / 17.8222 (+0.29%；摆动低点/MA5/MA10) | 17.5182 (-1.42%；MA5/摆动低点/MA120) / 18.0689 (+1.68%；布林上轨/摆动高点) | 17.2735 (-2.79%；MA20/布林中轨) / 18.1700 (+2.25%；摆动高点) | 1D 少于 60 根K线 |
VRT | 美股/ETF | SPY | 290.0100 | 4.04 | 高序列第7根 | 289.8370 (-0.06%；MA5/MA20/布林中轨) / 298.3384 (+2.87%；布林上轨/摆动高点/区间极值) | 289.3620 (-0.22%；MA120/摆动低点/MA5) / 292.6004 (+0.89%；摆动低点/布林上轨) | 287.0904 (-0.44%；摆动高点/摆动低点/MA30) / 295.2083 (+2.37%；摆动低点/MA120) | - |
COHR | 美股/ETF | SPY | 345.9900 | 29.76 | 高序列第8根 | 339.3627 (-1.92%；MA120/摆动低点/MA30) / 346.6448 (+0.19%；MA5/摆动高点/MA20) | 338.1169 (-2.28%；MA10/MA30) / 347.8498 (+0.54%；摆动高点/MA20/布林中轨) | 354.2000 (-0.40%；摆动高点) / 364.9050 (+2.61%；摆动高点/摆动低点) | - |
CRCL | 美股/ETF | SPY | 70.7100 | -1.41 | 高序列第5根 | 69.3986 (-1.85%；布林下轨) / 70.7380 (+0.04%；MA10/摆动低点/MA30) | 69.6965 (-1.43%；摆动高点/MA10) / 70.9560 (+0.35%；MA5) | 69.9800 (-1.82%；摆动高点) / 71.3645 (+0.12%；布林上轨) | - |
SPCX | 美股/ETF | SPY | 146.7000 | N/A | 高序列第5根 | 146.1600 (-0.37%；MA5) / 149.6000 (+1.98%；摆动高点/区间极值) | 140.0287 (-4.55%；摆动高点/MA5) / 149.6000 (+1.98%；区间极值) | 141.6367 (-3.09%；布林上轨) / 147.1100 (+0.66%；摆动低点) | 1D 少于 60 根K线 |
GOOG | 美股/ETF | SPY | 342.0000 | -8.42 | 低序列第5根 | 341.8223 (-0.05%；摆动低点/区间极值/布林下轨) / 345.8437 (+1.12%；MA30/摆动高点/布林上轨) | 341.5268 (-0.14%；布林下轨/摆动低点/摆动高点) / 346.1254 (+1.21%；摆动低点/MA60/摆动高点) | 333.6900 (-2.54%；摆动低点) / 342.4028 (+0.01%；摆动低点/MA120) | - |
PLTR | 美股/ETF | SPY | 170.0400 | 28.87 | 高序列第8根 | 168.4678 (-0.92%；摆动低点/布林下轨) / 172.0413 (+1.18%；MA5/MA10/摆动高点) | 168.4953 (-0.91%；摆动低点/MA20/布林中轨) / 172.0257 (+1.17%；MA5/摆动低点/MA10) | 169.8280 (-0.71%；MA5) / 179.6000 (+5.00%；摆动高点/区间极值) | - |
NBIS | 美股/ETF | SPY | 254.4000 | 45.43 | 高序列第1根 | 249.3670 (-1.98%；MA10) / 254.6740 (+0.11%；MA5) | 248.8565 (-2.18%；布林上轨) / 264.0000 (+3.77%；区间极值) | 245.1426 (-5.42%；布林上轨) / 278.8400 (+7.58%；摆动高点) | - |
BTCUSDT | Crypto | BTCUSDT | 63,654.2000 | 0.00 | 低序列第4根 | 63,547.6382 (-0.17%；布林下轨/摆动低点/区间极值) / 64,303.2161 (+1.02%；摆动高点/布林上轨/MA120) | 63,468.8216 (-0.29%；布林下轨/摆动高点/摆动低点) / 64,275.3662 (+0.98%；摆动高点/MA20/布林中轨) | 62,353.3418 (-2.04%；摆动低点/布林下轨) / 63,728.6202 (+0.12%；摆动低点/MA60/MA5) | 自身为基准 |
ETHUSDT | Crypto | BTCUSDT | 1,887.6400 | 3.79 | 低序列第4根 | 1,887.0239 (-0.03%；MA10/摆动高点/MA5) / 1,915.4402 (+1.47%；摆动低点/布林上轨/摆动高点) | 1,854.7769 (-1.74%；摆动低点/布林下轨) / 1,889.1936 (+0.08%；摆动高点/MA10/MA20) | 1,848.9010 (-2.05%；布林下轨/摆动低点/摆动高点) / 1,891.2189 (+0.19%；MA5/MA30/MA20) | - |
SOLUSDT | Crypto | BTCUSDT | 76.2300 | 4.88 | 无连续序列 | 75.2893 (-1.23%；摆动低点/区间极值/布林下轨) / 76.2336 (+0.00%；摆动低点/MA60/MA20) | 75.9182 (-0.41%；布林下轨/摆动低点/MA10) / 76.9745 (+0.98%；摆动高点/布林上轨) | 76.1180 (-0.15%；MA5/摆动高点/摆动低点) / 77.5208 (+1.69%；布林上轨/摆动高点) | - |
账户、公开补充与来源
公开数据补充
- 美股报价观察于 2026-08-13 11:53 北京时间，多数为 IBKR data type 3 延迟行情；美股 08/13 常规盘尚未开始，持仓表承接 08/12 完成收盘与盘后。
- 持仓技术结构已覆盖 10 个证券的日线均线与九转，并保留 1H/4H 支撑、压力、触发和失效；1H/4H 不计算九转。技术价位用于条件式复核，不自动生成交易。
- 六只 ETF 的发行商前十大持仓均因端点权限失败而 blocked；
PSI与DRAM的 NAV/溢折价也缺失。报告没有使用第三方成分替代，无法量化PSI与MRVL、GFS、COHR的真实重叠。 - 期权为 Yahoo 公开链快照，缺 Bid/Ask、Greeks、GEX、主动买卖方向与历史 IV 分位；Put/Call、Max Pain 和 Volume/OI 只描述结构，不单独决定方向或对冲规模。
- Farside 最新可见流量为 2026-08-12。
BTC的IBIT、ETH的 ETHA/ETHB 显示缺失，源表 Total=0 保留为源站总额，没有把缺失基金按零回填。 - 霍尔木兹关闭状态与 IEA 供应缺口来自单方表述或金十转述，且与 EIA 库存增长路径冲突；在船流、保险和库存落地前只保留条件式能源对冲判断。
IBKR 账户与保证金
| --- |--- | | 已连接 |是 | | 持仓数 |已隐藏 | | 错误数 |0 |
| --- |--- |--- |--- | | 已隐藏 |AvailableFunds |已隐藏 |USD | | 已隐藏 |BuyingPower |已隐藏 |USD | | 已隐藏 |GrossPositionValue |已隐藏 |USD | | 已隐藏 |InitMarginReq |已隐藏 |USD | | 已隐藏 |MaintMarginReq |已隐藏 |USD |
持仓上下文
- 已隐藏
- 已隐藏
- 已隐藏
数据源列表
- Binance 合约市场数据
- IBKR 行情数据
- IBKR 账户与持仓数据
- Merkl 官方奖励数据
- Yahoo Finance 公开期权链
- Yahoo Finance 历史行情
- Yahoo Finance 新闻检索
- 金十数据快讯事实雷达