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2026-07-13 周末环球资产日报(美股盘前)

  • 报告类型:周末环球资产日报
  • 报告时间:2026-07-13 09:57:06 Asia/Shanghai
  • 覆盖窗口:美国上周五收盘后至本次北京时间采集时点
  • 数据范围:Binance public futures、Crypto ETF flow、公开新闻/事件、Jin10 facts-only radar、article archive。
  • 排除范围:IBKR 股票持仓、公开报价/K线、期权链/大单、国债/T-Bill。

组合总览

今日要点

  • 美伊冲突与霍尔木兹通航是周一首要风险。美军周日继续打击伊朗,伊朗袭击多个海湾国家;美伊对海峡是否关闭的表述冲突,缺少独立实时船舶数据。美联社报道发布于美东时间 07/11 22:45(UTC+8 07/12 10:45)。周一亚洲时段 Brent 与 WTI 一度上涨约 3.1%,随后 Jin10 08:53 快讯记录 Brent 涨幅达到 4%;能源冲击能否延续,取决于商船通行和军事行动能否得到连续确认。
  • 亚洲风险资产已经进入熔断式压力。UTC+8 07/13 09:34,KOSPI 跌 4% 后触发 sidecar(侧车),程序化交易报价被暂停;到 10:04,KOSPI 跌 6%、SK 海力士跌 10.7%、三星电子跌 6.6%。对 trader 而言,这是明确的熔断级情绪和流动性冲击;交易所技术状态仍是 sidecar,尚未触发 KRX 定义的全市场 circuit breaker。10:25 韩国央行称 AI 芯片超级周期尚未放缓,结构性供需判断没有阻止盘中获利了结和风险释放。Jin10 侧车快讯Jin10 最新跌幅韩国央行半导体报告快讯
  • 油价上涨正在抬高本周通胀与利率事件的敏感度。Jin10 06:01 快讯记录的 CME 隐含概率显示,7 月维持利率不变概率为 62.1%,加息 25bp 概率为 37.9%;美国 6 月 CPI 将于美东时间 07/14 08:30(UTC+8 07/14 20:30)公布,随后两天还有 Fed 主席国会听证。周一需要联合观察油价、美元和利率,单一资产的盘初反应不足以确认方向。美国劳工统计局日历
  • 政策线索分成三条:美国住房法案已自动生效,影响住房供给、机构购买存量独栋住宅和建筑审批,但实施节奏尚未量化;中国氦气临时出口禁令继续生效,半导体供应链缺少企业库存和采购敞口数据;Lindsey Graham 去世带来参议院预算委员会与对俄制裁议程的人员变动,目前没有证据显示具体政策结果已经改变。美国住房法案中国氦气出口公告美联社参议院席位报道
  • 加密资产没有同步出现油价式跳变。UTC+8 07/13 约 09:57,BTC 报 63,497 美元、24 小时跌 0.945%;ETH 报 1,807.55 美元、涨 0.086%;SOL 报 76.44 美元、跌 0.404%,三者 Funding 均为小幅正值。Farside 07/10 最新行显示 BTC、ETH、SOL ETF/ETP 分别净流入 90.4、18.4、0.2 US$m,HYPE 净流出 5.7 US$m;资金需求仍然分化。BTCETHSOLHYPE

投研观点

周末突发事件

霍尔木兹风险已经从交战方表态传导到可观察的通航与价格变量:美国与伊朗周末互相扩大打击,周一亚洲时段原油涨幅从约 3% 扩大到约 4%。当前形成对冲观察情景,关键变量是商船通行是否继续下降、能源设施是否受损,以及临时谈判框架能否恢复执行。

  • 美联社于美东时间 07/11 22:45(UTC+8 07/12 10:45)报道,美国对伊朗发动多轮打击,伊朗随后袭击巴林、科威特、卡塔尔、约旦和阿曼。伊朗称海峡关闭,美国否认;双方口径冲突提高了航运与保险定价的不确定性。UTC+8 07/13 05:20,Jin10 快讯又转述美国中央司令部自美东时间 07/12 17:00 起发起更多打击。
  • Reuters 经 Euronext 发布的亚洲开盘报道发布于美东时间 07/12 19:24(UTC+8 07/13 07:24):当时 Brent 报 78.35 美元/桶、涨 3.08%,WTI 报 73.62 美元/桶、涨 3.09%;报道援引 Kpler 称周日仅 6 艘船通过海峡,为五周最低。UTC+8 08:53,Jin10 快讯显示 Brent 已升至 79 美元/桶、日内涨 4%,风险溢价仍在扩张。
  • 未来 24—72 小时的强化触发是独立航运数据继续显示通行量下降、油气设施或商船新增受损、美国或伊朗公开放弃通航安排;失效条件是可验证的通行量恢复、双方公布可执行的开放海峡安排,且 Brent、WTI 回吐周一开盘涨幅。
  • 本次没有独立实时船舶数据库、完整战损和出口量数据;“约 20 艘商船协调通行”的 UTC+8 06:49 Jin10 快讯来自 Axios 援引美国官员,不能替代独立航运统计。

Crypto 市场风险

  • 截至 UTC+8 2026-07-13 09:57 的 Binance public futures 快照,BTCUSDT 为 63,497、24 小时 -0.945%,Funding +0.003866%,OI 99,809.893 BTC;ETHUSDT 为 1,807.55、+0.086%,Funding +0.003024%,OI 2,294,050.586 ETH;SOLUSDT 为 76.44、-0.404%,Funding +0.001355%,OI 8,763,856.82 SOL。三者 Funding 同为小幅正值,但 BTC 与 SOL 仍下跌,公开盘面没有形成一致的上行动量。
  • 最近 24 小时价格区间为 BTC 63,440—64,411.8、ETH 1,788.12—1,848、SOL 75.80—78.19。当前是 wait setup:BTC 收复 64,411.8、ETH 收复 1,848、SOL 收复 78.19,且后续 OI/Funding 未显著升温,才把修复升级为 offensive setup;BTC 跌破 63,440、ETH 跌破 1,788.12 或 SOL 跌破 75.80,则短线修复失效,转为 hedge setup。
  • Farside BTC ETF FlowETH ETF FlowSOL ETF FlowHYPE ETF Flow的最新可见行均为 2026-07-10:BTC +90.4 US$m、ETH +18.4 US$m、SOL +0.2 US$m、HYPE -5.7 US$m。BTC/ETH 资金流改善提供边际支撑,SOL 仅接近零流入,HYPE 已转为流出;下一交易日数据尚未发布,当前 flow 不能解释 07/13 盘中变化。
  • 2026-07-12 的周日加密市场报道记录 BTC 在 17:09 GMT 报 64,188;本地快照随后回到 63,497,周日的地缘韧性没有延续成突破。美伊冲突更新同时记录霍尔木兹通航说法冲突;油价、美元与风险偏好仍是 BTC 的外部触发变量,现有证据没有证明 BTC 已获得持续避险溢价。
  • 未来 24—72 小时的宏观触发集中在美东时间 07/14 08:30 的美国 6 月 CPI以及 07/14、07/15 的 Fed 主席半年度货币政策听证(众议院参议院)。CPI 与听证前,价格突破和 ETF flow 新日期需要同时出现,单靠正 Funding 不足以确认进攻窗口。
  • OI 只有单点快照,无法判断新增杠杆还是存量持仓;Jin10 的 crypto 关键词在覆盖窗口无重要更新,公开检索也未取得新的交易所、稳定币、协议安全事件或 DeFi 事故。该结果只代表本次来源覆盖。

美股盘前新闻雷达

盘前风险中心落在能源成本抬升与亚洲半导体波动。KOSPI 跌幅从 09:26 的 4% 扩大到 10:04 的 6%,SK 海力士跌幅从 8.3% 扩大到 10.7%;纳指期货此前只低开 0.3%,亚洲与美国盘前的压力尚未同步。韩国央行对 AI 芯片周期的结构性判断偏强,但不能替代公司业绩、HBM4 出货和交易资金流证据。

  • UTC+8 07/13 09:26,Jin10 快讯显示 KOSPI 跌 4%、SK 海力士跌 8.3%、三星电子跌 4.2%;09:34,韩国交易所侧车机制快讯称程序化交易被暂停。09:50 KOSPI 跌幅扩大至 5.04%,SK 海力士跌 9.6%;10:04 的最新跌幅快讯显示 KOSPI 跌 6%、SK 海力士跌 10.7%、三星电子跌 6.6%。交易语义上属于熔断式压力;技术语义上触发的是 sidecar,而不是全市场 circuit breaker。
  • KRX sidecar 规则对应程序交易报价暂停 5 分钟;KRX 一级 circuit breaker 规则要求 KOSPI 较前收至少下跌 8%并持续 1 分钟。UTC+8 10:41,Naver KOSPI 实时快照显示指数跌 5.22%、日低约跌 6.13%;SK 海力士实时快照显示跌 10.18%且状态仍为交易中。市场体感已经达到熔断级,但技术上没有进入全市场停牌。
  • 09:58 的Jin10 报道将 SK 海力士韩股下跌与美股首日上涨约 13% 后的获利了结、套利平仓联系起来,并提到美国发行获得超过 7 倍认购;这是受访市场人士的解释,不是交易所或公司正式归因。10:25,韩国央行半导体报告快讯称 AI 需求增长快于供给扩张、芯片周期尚未放缓;结构性供需与当日交易压力可以同时存在。
  • 10:33 更新的CNBC 报道确认 SK 海力士首尔股价跌逾 10%,并讨论获利了结、韩美上市价差和新增股份供给。报道仍以分析师访谈为主,没有公司订单、产能或财务数据,相关解释保留为市场结构线索。
  • 中国商务部、海关总署于 UTC+8 07/10 17:00 发布氦气临时禁止出口公告,措施立即生效且未给出终止日。半导体制造存在明确工艺关联,但公告没有出口量、豁免、企业库存和替代供应数据,当前只能形成供应链观察情景,不能落到单一公司的产能或盈利判断。
  • CBS News于美东时间 07/11 21:06(UTC+8 07/12 09:06)确认《21 世纪住房发展之路法案》自动生效,45 项以上条款涉及审批提速、预制住宅、商业地产改造和部分机构购房限制。实施细则、拨款和时间表未披露,对住宅建筑、建材和按揭金融构成中期政策线索,周一尚无可量化的即时交易情景。
  • Reuters 经 Euronext 发布的 Meta 更正版底层报道日期为 07/09,并修正年底新增算力为 2.5GW。Iris 芯片 9 月量产、2027 年 14GW 算力目标和供应协议来自内部备忘录;本地文章库已取得可读全文,仍需等待 Meta 后续公开披露验证执行进度。
  • 强化触发是美股盘前科技期货跌幅继续扩大,且氦气供应商、晶圆厂或 Meta/合作方发布可核验的产能、交付或成本更新;失效条件是 KOSPI 波动控制解除后跌幅明显收窄、美股期货收复盘初缺口,同时没有企业确认供应或生产影响。

宏观、政策与地缘

未来 24—72 小时的核心是“通胀数据 + Fed 主席连续两场国会听证”。地缘冲突已经通过油价提高再通胀敏感度,而利率衍生品在数据公布前已出现偏鹰定价;方向性情景需要同时满足数据意外和政策措辞两项确认。

  • Jin10 06:01 快讯转述 CME 美联储观察:7 月维持利率不变概率为 62.1%,累计加息 25bp 概率为 37.9%;9 月累计加息 25bp 概率为 51.8%,累计加息 50bp 概率为 21.8%。这是随期货价格变化的盘中概率,不是 Fed 指引。
  • 美国劳工统计局日程确认 6 月 CPI 与实际收入将在美东时间 07/14 08:30(UTC+8 07/14 20:30)发布,6 月 PPI 将在美东时间 07/15 08:30(UTC+8 07/15 20:30)发布。当前证据只确认时间,没有最终结果。
  • 美国众议院金融服务委员会安排 Fed 主席 Kevin Warsh 于美东时间 07/14 10:00(UTC+8 07/14 22:00)出席半年度货币政策报告听证;参议院银行委员会的第二场听证安排在美东时间 07/15 10:00(UTC+8 07/15 22:00)。两场听证尚无书面证词或问答记录。
  • 美联社于美东时间 07/11 18:38(UTC+8 07/12 06:38)报道参议员 Lindsey Graham 去世;南卡州将先任命临时继任者,再举行特别初选。他此前参与俄罗斯制裁方案并担任参议院预算委员会主席,后续议程存在程序不确定性,当前没有证据证明制裁或财政路线已经改变。
  • 偏鹰情景的触发是 CPI/PPI 显示通胀压力高于预期,并且 Warsh 在证词或问答中强调进一步收紧;失效条件是通胀数据低于预期、听证措辞未支持加息或更紧金融条件。当前缺少美国利率曲线、DXY 同步行情、听证书面材料和 CME 概率的后续更新。

大宗商品与外汇

周一亚洲时段呈现“原油风险溢价扩张、贵金属未同步走强、美元兑日元与欧元偏强”的组合。该价格结构更接近能源通胀与偏鹰利率预期共同占优,尚未形成覆盖全市场的避险确认。

  • UTC+8 07/13 09:46 的Jin10 行情快照显示,WTI 报 74.294 美元/桶、涨 4.02%,Brent 报 79.06 美元/桶、涨 4.11%;同一时点现货黄金报 4,084.63 美元/盎司、跌 0.84%,白银报 59.032 美元/盎司、跌 1.373%。油价对霍尔木兹风险的反应明确,黄金和白银没有同步确认广泛避险买盘。
  • 同一组快照显示 USDJPY 报 161.967、涨 0.151%,EURUSD 报 1.13942、跌 0.172%,USDCNH 报 6.78090、接近平盘。美元的强势主要体现在日元和欧元方向;缺少 DXY 与美国收益率数据,当前无法拆分利差、避险和能源进口成本的贡献。
  • 原油延续情景的触发是 Brent 持续站在周一开盘价 78.33 美元上方、WTI 持续站在 73.201 美元上方,同时通航量继续低迷或能源设施新增受损;失效条件是海峡通航恢复并且两者跌回开盘价下方。黄金若重新突破当日高点 4,103.31 美元且油价维持高位,才构成更广泛避险确认;继续低于该高点并维持负涨幅,则利率压力仍压过避险需求。
  • USDJPY 向上突破 162 且 CPI/Warsh 继续强化偏鹰预期,会扩大美元利差情景;回落至 09:46 快照的当日低点 161.626 下方则使该情景失效。所有报价均为盘中快照,并非交易所结算价或央行参考汇率;当前还缺少独立船舶、石油实际出口、期货期限结构、信用利差和实时美债收益率数据。

周一开盘关注清单

主题当前证据观察框架触发条件失效条件
霍尔木兹与能源运输美军扩大打击;商船通行数字来自不同二手口径;Brent、WTI 盘初涨约 4%Hedge setup(对冲观察)独立船舶数据确认通行持续收缩,或交战方公布新的航运限制;油价涨幅延续至美股盘前通行量连续恢复、停火谈判出现可验证进展,且油价回吐周末跳空
亚洲半导体风险传导KOSPI 触发 sidecar 后跌幅扩大至 6%,形成熔断式压力;SK 海力士跌 10.7%、三星电子跌 6.6%;韩国央行称芯片超级周期未放缓Wait setup(等待美股确认)美国半导体期货和现货同步扩大跌幅,或韩国交易所升级至全市场 circuit breaker,或公司披露 HBM4、库存、供应链变化KOSPI 跌幅明显收窄、美股期货收复盘初缺口,且没有企业确认盈利或供应恶化
美国住房法案45 项以上住房供给与机构购房条款已经生效Wait setup(等待实施细则)主管部门公布资金、审批或执行时间表,住宅建筑、材料与按揭金融板块出现一致反应实施细则延后,或行业反应显示政策影响分散且时间跨度过长
参议院席位与对俄制裁Graham 去世后将由州长任命临时继任者,特别初选将在数周内举行No tradeable setup(暂无可交易框架)临时继任者、委员会职务或制裁法案时间表出现明确变化人事补位不改变委员会和立法日程
Crypto 与 ETF flowBTC、ETH、SOL 波动有限;Funding 小幅为正;07/10 BTC、ETH ETF flow 为正,HYPE 为负Wait setup(等待跨市场确认)BTC 在美股风险资产承压时继续守住 63,000 美元附近,且下一批 ETF flow 维持正值美股风险释放扩散至 crypto,价格下跌同时 Funding 或 OI 出现明显失衡

本地文章库

阅读优先级文章来源与日期阅读价值
5 / 高霍尔木兹冲突升级冲击能源通道Associated Press,07/12提供空袭规模、区域反击和海峡通行口径,是周一能源与风险资产判断的主文
5 / 高霍尔木兹冲突推升油价与供应风险Reuters via Euronext,07/13给出周一油价、船舶通行与 IEA 供应缺口数字
4 / 高海力士双重上市估值波动CNBC,07/13补充 SK 海力士跌逾 10%后的韩美价差、新股供给和获利了结线索,相关归因仍来自分析师访谈
5 / 关键日历美国七月劳工数据日程U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,未提供发布时间确认 CPI、PPI 和实际收入发布时间,不含预测和结果
5 / 高美联储主席将赴众院作证美国众议院金融服务委员会,未提供发布时间确认美东时间 07/14 10:00 的半年度货币政策听证
5 / 高美联储主席将赴参院作证美国参议院银行委员会,未提供发布时间确认美东时间 07/15 10:00 的第二场听证
4 / 中高美国住房改革法自动生效CBS News,07/11梳理住房供给、审批、预制住宅和机构购房限制
4 / 高优先级格雷厄姆去世与参院席位变局Associated Press,07/12覆盖继任程序、预算委员会和对俄制裁议程背景
4 / 重要政策事实中国临时禁止氦气出口商务部、海关总署,07/10官方公告确认禁令立即生效,但未给出期限、豁免和贸易规模
3 / 中美联储七月政策与监管动态索引Federal Reserve,未提供发布时间适合核对官方事项,现有正文只含标题和日期,不能用于判断政策方向

Crypto 事实

Binance 合约市场结构

合约价格24h涨跌FundingOI更新时间
BTCUSDT63,497.00-0.94%0.00387% / 8h99,809.892026-07-13 01:57:02.506Z
ETHUSDT1,807.55+0.09%0.00302% / 8h2,294,050.592026-07-13 01:57:04.305Z
SOLUSDT76.44-0.40%0.00136% / 8h8,763,856.822026-07-13 01:57:02.920Z

本地文章库

重要性中文标题原文标题发布日期来源状态评级理由
5/5 高霍尔木兹冲突升级冲击能源通道The US launches more strikes on Iran as the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz escalates2026-07-12Associated Press已入库报道紧邻日报窗口,涉及全球关键油气通道,并提供空袭规模、区域损害和船舶通行量等具体事实;对能源与跨资产风险观察具有直接影响,但交战方口径仍需独立验证。
5/5 高霍尔木兹冲突推升油价与供应风险Oil jumps 3% after US, Iran escalate strikes in Mideast2026-07-12Reuters via Euronext已入库周一亚洲开盘阶段的即时冲突与能源运输报道,直接影响原油和跨资产风险定价;价格、通航量及供应缺口均有具体数据支持。
5/5 高霍尔木兹通航谈判再起Iran US talks on Strait of Hormuz security2026-07-11Reuters via The Straits Times已入库涉及霍尔木兹通航、能源供应和多方谈判,直接影响原油与避险资产的跨资产风险定价;来源质量较高,但协议进展尚未获得正式确认。
4/5 中高美国住房改革法自动生效Bipartisan housing bill automatically becomes law after Trump refuses to sign it2026-07-12CBS News已入库法律已正式生效,覆盖住房供给、开发审批和机构购房限制,对多个美国住房产业环节具有中期影响;当前仍缺实施细则和量化测算。
4/5 高优先级格雷厄姆去世与参院席位变局Sen. Lindsey Graham likely died after aorta tear, medical examiner says2026-07-11Associated Press已入库美联社提供了死亡事实、初步医学结论、继任程序及政治职务等明确证据;事件紧邻俄罗斯制裁推进和11月选举,可能影响美国外交、财政与参院议程,但实际政策后果尚未形成。
3/5 中比特币守住六万四千美元Bitcoin steadies above $64,000 as investors shrug off Hormuz tensions2026-07-12Investing.com已入库覆盖 BTC、ETH、SOL 的最新周末报价及美国监管议题,但单点价格数据有限,且 ETH 涨跌表述冲突,适合作为后续核验线索。
5/5 高Meta自研芯片量产提速Meta to put AI chip into production in September as it looks to double computing capacity, memo shows2026-07-12Reuters via Euronext已入库内部备忘录披露了Meta自研芯片量产、算力扩容和资本开支目标,直接牵连人工智能芯片、代工、存储及数据中心供应链。
4/5 高海力士双重上市估值波动SK Hynix shares slide 10% in Seoul after stellar Nasdaq debut2026-07-13CNBC已入库时效性强,直接涉及SKHYV的跨市场定价与AI存储链需求预期;CNBC报道含具体价格和价差数据,但中期判断主要来自分析师访谈。
4/5 中高中国暂停氦气出口China temporarily bans helium exports as US-Iran tensions flare again2026-07-10Reuters via The Straits Times已入库政策动作具时效性,且氦气是晶圆制造关键工业气体;但对相关半导体公司的实际供给、成本与产量影响尚缺公司层面证据。
4/5 重要政策事实中国临时禁止氦气出口商务部 海关总署公告2026年第29号 公布对氦气实施临时禁止出口管理2026-07-10中华人民共和国商务部、海关总署已入库中国主管部门发布立即生效的出口管理公告,可能影响半导体工业气体供应预期;但缺少贸易规模、执行细则和企业敞口数据,暂时无法量化影响。
5/5 关键事件日历美国七月劳工数据日程July 2026未提供发布时间U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics已入库官方日历给出了即将发布的美国通胀、工资和就业数据时间,其中 CPI、PPI 与 ECI 对跨资产定价具有直接事件意义;材料不包含数据结果或方向判断。
5/5 高美联储主席将赴众院作证Hearings | U.S. House Committee on Financial Services未提供发布时间U.S. House Committee on Financial Services已入库官方一手日程显示关键货币政策听证会即将举行,跨资产相关度和时效性均高;现有证据仅覆盖议程,需等待正式证词。
5/5 高美联储主席将赴参院作证The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress | United States Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs未提供发布时间U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs已入库参议院官方听证将在两天内举行,可能产生新的货币政策表述和问答信息,对主要跨资产变量具有直接影响;当前材料仅为日程公告。
3/5 中美联储七月政策与监管动态索引News & Events未提供发布时间Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System已入库美联储官方来源及时列出近期货币政策事项,对美元指数和美债利率研究有直接索引价值;缺少文件正文,证据深度和可解释性受限。
打开原文

霍尔木兹冲突升级冲击能源通道

重要性5/5 高

报道紧邻日报窗口,涉及全球关键油气通道,并提供空袭规模、区域损害和船舶通行量等具体事实;对能源与跨资产风险观察具有直接影响,但交战方口径仍需独立验证。

中文摘要

核心结论

美国连续扩大对伊朗空袭,伊朗则袭击多个海湾国家并宣称关闭霍尔木兹海峡,双方围绕商船通行权的冲突已危及临时协议与停火斡旋。海峡通行量明显低于战前水平,全球油气运输、能源价格与避险资产面临新的事件风险。

重要性评级

评级:5/5(高)

报道发布时间接近日报观察窗口,且涉及约占全球贸易油气五分之一的运输通道。美军行动规模、区域报复范围、船舶通行量和设施损害均有具体事实支持,对原油、液化天然气、黄金、美元及加密资产的跨市场观察具有直接价值。

关键事实

  • 美军在一周内对伊朗发动三轮空袭;其中一轮打击约140个目标,包括导弹和无人机发射场、弹药库、通信设备及其他设施,后续行动还涉及导弹系统、防空系统和伊朗革命卫队船只。
  • 美国称行动旨在削弱伊朗袭击自由通行商船的能力。首轮空袭回应伊朗此前对一艘塞浦路斯籍集装箱船的打击;该船机舱严重受损,阿曼救出23名船员,另有一名印度籍船员失踪。
  • 伊朗报复性袭击波及巴林、科威特、卡塔尔、约旦和阿曼。卡塔尔称拦截来袭火力,碎片造成包括一名儿童在内的3人受伤;科威特称3处陆地边境哨所和一座海上钻井平台受损,1名工人受伤。
  • 伊朗宣称海峡在局势恢复平静前关闭,并主张由其控制通行及可能向船舶收费;美国政府和军方则称海峡仍然开放。
  • 美军称过去一周有超过140艘船通过海峡;美国海军监督的多国机构称两侧航运仍在继续,但流量处于较低水平。战前每日通行量接近140艘。
  • 战前约五分之一的全球贸易石油和天然气经由霍尔木兹海峡。报道指出,冲突曾将油价推至每桶120美元,随后已从战时高点显著回落。
  • 美国与伊朗正处于60天临时协议期的中段,谈判因海峡控制权争议和相互袭击接近破裂;巴基斯坦、卡塔尔和埃及仍在推进降级与停火斡旋。

作者观点与证据

美联社将事件描述为围绕霍尔木兹海峡航运控制权不断升级的军事循环,并强调全面恢复战争可能产生严重后果。证据包括美国军方公布的打击规模、海湾各国政府报告的拦截与损害、航运机构公布的通行量,以及遇袭商船的救援记录。

部分信息仍来自交战方口径:伊朗与美国对海峡是否关闭各执一词,美军目标细节含匿名美国官员陈述,伊朗境内损失主要由伊朗官方或半官方媒体披露。报道没有提供独立船舶流量数据、完整战损评估或能源供应中断规模。

与相关标的的关系

  • Brent(布伦特原油)、WTI(西得克萨斯中质原油)、UKOIL(布伦特原油市场代码)和USOIL(美国原油市场代码):海峡承担全球约五分之一贸易油气运输,船舶流量下降、商船遇袭及海上设施受损直接影响运输风险和供应预期。
  • LNG(液化天然气):卡塔尔及海湾航运安全与全球液化天然气供应链直接相关,区域导弹拦截和海峡通行受限增加运输不确定性。
  • XAUUSD(现货黄金兑美元)与DXY(美元指数):冲突范围扩大和停火谈判承压构成避险需求与美元波动的事件背景,但原文未提供两类资产的即时价格反应。
  • BTC(比特币):相关性来自周末地缘风险和全球风险偏好的传导,文章没有提供比特币价格、资金流或链上数据,直接证据较弱。
  • GLOBAL(全球市场):能源成本、航运中断和地区军事扩散可能影响通胀及风险资产定价;实际影响取决于海峡通行是否持续下降以及油气供应是否发生实质中断。

时效性与限制

文章发布于美东时间 07/11 22:45(UTC+8 07/12 10:45),并包含随后发生的滚动更新;采集时间为美东时间 07/12 21:59(UTC+8 07/13 09:59)。页面更新时间字段未正常显示,因此无法确认文中最新一段更新的准确时刻。军事行动仍在发展,伤亡、战损、海峡状态和谈判进展可能迅速变化。

后续跟踪

  • 独立航运数据所显示的每日过境船舶数量、等待时间和绕航规模。
  • 霍尔木兹海峡是否出现可验证的持续封锁,以及美国护航或追加打击安排。
  • 集装箱船、油轮、液化天然气运输船和海上能源设施的新增受损情况。
  • 60天临时协议、地区斡旋和美伊停火谈判能否恢复。
原文
The US launches more strikes on Iran as the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz escalates

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World News

The US launches more strikes on Iran as the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz escalates

The US launches more strikes on Iran as the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz escalates

1 of 3 |

The United States attacked Iran early Sunday morning. The U.S. military’s Central Command said it hit some 140 targets in the strikes, far more than the last two rounds. Jon Gambrell from The Associated Press explains.

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2 of 3 |

Commercial vessels are seen in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Tuesday, June 30, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)

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3 of 3 |

Children wade in the water with cargo ships at anchor in the background and a fisherman nearby, in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Tuesday, June 30, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)

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The US launches more strikes on Iran as the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz escalates

Read More

1 of 3

The United States attacked Iran early Sunday morning. The U.S. military’s Central Command said it hit some 140 targets in the strikes, far more than the last two rounds. Jon Gambrell from The Associated Press explains.

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Commercial vessels are seen in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Tuesday, June 30, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)

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2 of 3

Commercial vessels are seen in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Tuesday, June 30, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)

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3 of 3 |

Children wade in the water with cargo ships at anchor in the background and a fisherman nearby, in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Tuesday, June 30, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)

Read More

3 of 3

Children wade in the water with cargo ships at anchor in the background and a fisherman nearby, in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Tuesday, June 30, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)

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By

JON GAMBRELL , WILL WEISSERT and KONSTANTIN TOROPIN

Updated [hour]:[minute] [AMPM] [timezone], [monthFull] [day], [year]

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Missile alert sirens sounded Monday in Bahrain as Iran retaliated over the latest round of U.S. airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic.

The U.S. had been conducting strikes overnight in Iran.

There was no immediate word from the island kingdom in the Persian Gulf about any damage. Bahrain hosts the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below.

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The United States launched several waves of strikes on Iran on Sunday over an Iranian attack on a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz that set it ablaze and left a crew member missing earlier in the weekend. Iran responded with attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Oman — the nation on the other side of the strait that Tehran has pressed to collaborate in managing shipping traffic.

The U.S. military said it was seeking “to degrade” Iran’s “ability to attack commercial ships freely transiting” the strait. The statement came after a third round of strikes late Sunday night and into Monday in Iran.

Iranian state media acknowledged the latest attacks early Monday, describing explosions in several locations.

The first wave of strikes, on Sunday morning, was in response to an Iranian strike on a container ship in the critical waterway the day before. In response, Iran hit Gulf Arab states in an escalating cycle of violence that left the negotiations between Tehran and Washington to end the war at the edge of collapse.

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The U.S. struck again later Sunday. The governor of Qeshm Island near the strait told Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency that projectiles were fired at military targets, with no casualties. Explosions were also heard in the coastal city of Bandar Abbas and Hajiabad city to the north.

Read More

A U.S. official said a few strikes targeted missile and air defense systems and paramilitary Revolutionary Guard boats. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to publicly discuss military operations.

Iran and the U.S. are nearly at the midway point of the 60-day period of their interim deal aimed at reaching a permanent end to the war. The strait, a key route for the global supply of oil and natural gas and long considered an international waterway, has become a sticking point in negotiations that seem in danger of collapse.

“A return to full-scale hostilities would have catastrophic consequences,” United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said, according to a statement.

Iran says the strait is closed but the US disagrees

The U.S. military earlier Sunday said it hit some 140 targets, including missile and drone launch sites, ammunition dumps, communication equipment and other sites.

The attacks were heavier than in recent days. The U.S. has launched three rounds of airstrikes targeting Iran in the past week over attacks on ships heading through the strait using a route off Oman, seeking to avoid the Islamic Republic’s territorial waters.

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“We bombed the hell out of them last night,” President Donald Trump told NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

Semiofficial Iranian news agencies reported that a navy officer was killed. Iran retaliated by attacking nations in the region hosting U.S. military forces, while insisting it alone must control the strait and potentially charge vessels for traveling through it.

“The era of one-sided deals is OVER,” Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament and a main negotiator, wrote. “We told you: keep your word or pay the price. Reality is knocking.”

Iran said the strait was closed until calm is restored, and Tehran would consider targeting “additional enemy bases in the region” if it faced more attacks. The U.S. military and Trump asserted that the strait remained open.

The U.S. military said over 140 ships had transited over the past week. A multinational body overseen by the U.S. Navy said traffic continued “at reduced levels” off both Oman and Iran, and that nearly 140 vessels transited daily before the war.

About a fifth of all traded oil and natural gas passed through the strait before the war. Iran’s grip on it led to a global energy crisis, though oil prices have sharply dropped since wartime highs of $120 a barrel.

Oman summons Iranian envoy to protest attack

Missile alerts sounded across several Gulf Arab countries.

Qatar’s military said it intercepted incoming Iranian fire, with explosions heard in the neighboring United Arab Emirates. Three people, including a child, were wounded by shrapnel from the interception of attacks, Qatar’s Interior Ministry said.

Missile alerts sounded in Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet.

Kuwait’s Defense Ministry said three “land border posts” in the north and an offshore drilling platform of the Kuwait Oil Company were damaged, with one worker wounded.

Three Iranian missiles struck areas across Jordan, causing minor damage but no injuries, Jordan’s state news agency reported.

And the Omani state news agency said drones struck sites in an area on the waterway, a day after Oman and Iran held talks on the strait and agreed to continue discussions. The strait sits in Iran and Oman’s territorial waters.

Oman summoned the Iranian ambassador to protest the strikes, the first such move since the war began, calling Iran’s acts “irresponsible.”

Iranian strike on ship harms Indian crew

The Cyprus-flagged container ship hit by Iran on Saturday suffered “significant engine room damage,” the U.S. military said.

Oman’s maritime authority said it rescued 23 crew members but one was missing. India’s foreign ministry called him an Indian national.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center, overseen by the British military, said the ship had been moving along Oman’s shoreline.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said multiple vessels “disregarded our warnings” and ignored instructions to follow what it called an approved route. One “was struck by a warning shot and brought to a stop.”

Iranian state media later reported U.S. strikes across the country, including southern Iran in the province closest to the strait and military sites in a province near Tehran.

Attacks followed more diplomatic talks about the strait

Trump suggested last week that the interim deal in the war was “over.” But mediators, including Pakistan, Qatar and Egypt, have continued efforts to reach an agreement.

A regional official involved in mediation, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss talks, said efforts to shore up the ceasefire continued Sunday. Pakistan said its foreign minister spoke by phone with Iran’s top diplomat and urged “de-escalation” on both sides.

Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei , unseen since the war began, on Saturday vowed in his first statement since the funeral of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei , that Iranians would avenge his killing in the war’s opening strikes on Feb. 28.

___

Weissert and Toropin reported from Washington. Associated Press writers Samy Magdy in Cairo; Melanie Lidman in Tel Aviv, Israel; Munir Ahmed in Islamabad and Meg Kinnard in Columbia, South Carolina, contributed to this report.

JON GAMBRELL

Gambrell is the news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press. He has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the world since joining the AP in 2006.

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WILL WEISSERT

Weissert covers the White House for The Associated Press. He is based in Washington.

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打开原文

霍尔木兹冲突推升油价与供应风险

重要性5/5 高

周一亚洲开盘阶段的即时冲突与能源运输报道,直接影响原油和跨资产风险定价;价格、通航量及供应缺口均有具体数据支持。

中文摘要

核心结论

美国与伊朗周末相互扩大打击,伊朗同时袭击卡塔尔和阿联酋,霍尔木兹海峡的通航与能源运输风险再度上升。油价开盘上涨约3%,但涨幅仍反映市场暂未按停火协议彻底破裂定价。

重要性评级

评级:5/5(高)

报道发布于亚洲周一开盘前,直接覆盖油价、海峡通航和全球供应变化,时效性与跨资产关联度均高。路透社引用船舶追踪、国际能源署和实时期货价格,事实密度较高。

关键事实

  • 美东时间 07/12 19:11(UTC+8 07/13 07:11),Brent(布伦特原油)期货上涨2.34美元,涨幅3.08%,报每桶78.35美元;WTI(西得州中质原油)上涨2.21美元,涨幅3.09%,报73.62美元。
  • 德黑兰周末把打击范围扩大至卡塔尔和阿联酋,美国则进一步袭击伊朗,冲突继续围绕霍尔木兹海峡航运升级。
  • 美国总统特朗普07/12(未给出具体时刻)称海峡仍对商业航运开放;伊朗此前宣布关闭海峡,并称一艘未经批准通行的船只遭到打击。
  • Kpler(船舶追踪与大宗商品数据机构)数据显示,07/12(未给出具体时刻)仅有6艘船通过海峡,为五周最低水平。
  • 美国与伊朗上月签署临时协议,计划重开海峡,并在继续谈判60天后结束战争;新一轮袭击使协议前景承压。
  • IEA(国际能源署)称,协议签署后全球石油供应在6月增加410万桶/日,但仍较战前低940万桶/日。
  • ANZ(澳新银行)分析师认为,周末局势升级削弱了冲突迅速解决的预期。

作者观点与证据

报道倾向于把约3%的油价上涨归因于海峡运输风险和美伊冲突升级。支撑材料包括期货报价、Kpler通航数据、国际能源署供应统计以及交战方公开表态。IG(在线交易与市场分析机构)分析师Tony Sycamore指出,涨幅相对克制,显示市场仍把事件视为脆弱停火框架内的升级;他同时承认这一判断尚待后续事实验证。

与相关标的的关系

Brent、WTI、UKOIL与USOIL直接受海峡通航量、出口中断规模及停火协议存续情况影响。供应风险也会经能源价格和通胀预期传导至DXY(美元指数)与全球风险资产;XAUUSD(现货黄金兑美元)的关联主要来自避险需求,报道没有提供美元或黄金的同步价格证据。

时效性与限制

文章发布于美东时间 07/12 19:24(UTC+8 07/13 07:24),采集于美东时间 07/12 21:59(UTC+8 07/13 09:59),属于周一亚洲交易时段的即时报道。通航状态存在美伊表述冲突,6艘船的单日数据也不足以确认海峡已持续关闭;报道未给出设施损毁、实际出口量或保险费率变化。

后续跟踪

  • 霍尔木兹海峡每日通航船数及油轮类别。
  • 伊朗、美国及海湾国家后续军事行动与官方通航公告。
  • 全球石油供应相对战前水平的恢复速度。
  • 上月临时协议能否继续执行及60天谈判安排。
原文
Oil jumps 3% after US, Iran escalate strikes in Mideast

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Oil jumps 3% after US, Iran escalate strikes in Mideast

Mon 13/07/2026 - 01:24

By Florence Tan

SINGAPORE, July 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices jumped on Monday as Iran expanded strikes on Gulf states following attacks by the United States, threatening energy shipments via the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures climbed $2.34, or 3.08%, to $78.35 by 2311 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.21, or 3.09%, to $73.62 a barrel.

Over the weekend, Tehran extended strikes on Qatar and the United Arab Emirates while the U.S. launched further strikes on Iran, the latest in a cycle of attacks and counter-attacks over shipping through the strait.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial traffic, although Iran declared earlier that it closed the strait after a vessel traveled on an unapproved route and was struck.

Six vessels transited the strait on Sunday, shiptracking data from Kpler showed, the lowest number in five weeks.

The escalating attacks cast further doubt on the future of an interim U.S.-Iranian agreement signed last month that aimed to reopen the strait and end the war after a further 60 days of negotiations.

Following the agreement, global oil supply rose by 4.1 million barrels per day in June, but remained 9.4 million bpd below pre-war levels, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report on Friday.

"Hopes of a relatively quick resolution to the recent skirmishes may be in doubt after tension escalated over the weekend," ANZ analysts said in a note.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said the relatively tame rise in oil prices suggested the market was taking the view that the current flare up represented an escalation within a fragile truce and fell well short of a complete collapse of the ceasefire.

"How accurate that view is remains to be seen," he said in a note.

(Reporting by Florence Tan; Editing by Edmund Klamann and Sonali Paul)

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打开原文

霍尔木兹通航谈判再起

重要性5/5 高

涉及霍尔木兹通航、能源供应和多方谈判,直接影响原油与避险资产的跨资产风险定价;来源质量较高,但协议进展尚未获得正式确认。

中文摘要

核心结论

文章称,美国要求伊朗公开承诺霍尔木兹海峡船舶自由、安全通行;伊朗外长阿拉格齐 07/11(未给出具体时刻)抵达阿曼讨论通航安排。双方同意继续接触的信号与伊朗方面“美方撤回立场前不谈判”的表态并存,航运安全和原油供给风险仍未消除。

重要性评级

评级:5/5(高)

霍尔木兹海峡战事与通航谈判直接关联全球原油、液化天然气、美元和避险资产定价,且报道涉及多方最新接触与实际船舶遇袭背景。路透社经《海峡时报》转载,信息价值较高,但多项谈判安排仍依赖匿名消息人士。

关键事实

  • 阿拉格齐于 07/11(未给出具体时刻)前往阿曼,讨论霍尔木兹海峡船舶安全通行安排;阿曼正在斡旋结束冲突。
  • 美国总统特朗普 07/10(未给出具体时刻)称美伊同意继续谈判,同时宣布此前停火已经结束。
  • 一名伊朗高级消息人士称,伊朗、美国、卡塔尔和巴基斯坦同意通话,调停方正安排 07/11(未给出具体时刻)举行;伊朗法尔斯通讯社随后称,美方未撤回立场前不会谈判。
  • 美国官员要求伊朗公开承诺停止袭击船舶、开放全部航道且不收取通行费。战前该海峡承载约全球五分之一原油供应。
  • 本周早些时候,3 艘卡塔尔和沙特商业油轮遇袭;美国随后打击伊朗目标,伊朗则袭击海湾国家内的美军设施。伊朗尚未宣称对油轮袭击负责。
  • 报道称,伊朗卫生部官员表示美国 07/08 至 07/09(均未给出具体时刻)对伊朗 6 座城市的袭击造成至少 17 人死亡、115 人受伤。
  • 原油价格结束连续数周下跌,录得八周来最大单周涨幅;报道将其置于海湾冲突升级、全球能源供应受限的背景中。

作者观点与证据

文章将谈判描述为降温尝试,但以相互矛盾的公开表态、油轮遇袭和军事报复说明停火基础脆弱。通话安排、伊朗对袭击的实际责任及美伊对通航条件的执行意愿,部分来自匿名官员或消息人士,尚无可独立核验的正式协议文本。

与相关标的的关系

Brent(布伦特原油)、WTI(西得州原油)及 UKOIL、USOIL 的定价直接受海峡通航和油轮安全影响;LNG(液化天然气)面临区域运输扰动风险。DXY(美元指数)与 XAUUSD(现货黄金)可能反映避险需求变化,但文章未提供其价格或资金流数据。

时效性与限制(仅在有新增信息时)

文章发布于 07/11(未给出具体时刻),检索于美东时间 07/12 22:30(UTC+8 07/13 10:30)。报道描述的是快速变化的冲突与谈判进程,后续官方声明、航运恢复情况和实际供应数据可能改变判断。

后续跟踪

  • 美伊及卡塔尔、阿曼等调停方是否公布会议、通话或通航承诺。
  • 霍尔木兹海峡的船舶通行量、保险成本和新增袭击事件。
  • 美国对伊朗原油销售许可与制裁措施的变化。
  • 原油、液化天然气和避险资产对实际航运与供应数据的反应。
原文
Iran US talks on Strait of Hormuz security

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US seeks Iranian pledge to free up Strait of Hormuz

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Vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, on July 8.

PHOTO: REUTERS

Published   Jul 11, 2026, 12:51 PM

Updated   Jul 11, 2026, 10:41 PM

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WASHINGTON/CAIRO – Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Oman on July 11 to discuss arrangements for the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state media said, with Washington seeking a public pledge of free, secure transit.

US President Donald Trump said on July 10 that the US and Iran had agreed to continue talks despite an escalation of hostilities this week, while also declaring an end to the ceasefire reached between the two sides .

No attacks were reported on July 10 or early on July 11 , however, and a senior Iranian source told Reuters a call between Iran, the US, Qatar and Pakistan had been agreed, and mediators were trying to arrange it for July 11 while Araghch i was in Oman.

Oman is helping to mediate an end to a war that has spread insecurity in the Gulf and raised prices around the world since the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran on Feb 28.

CBS News and its British partner the BBC both reported that US Vice-President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner were expected to lead negotiations on July 11 with Araghchi .

Iran’s Fars news agency later cited a source saying no negotiations would take place until the US retreated from its positions.

Qatari mediators held talks in Tehran on July 10

Three Qatari and Saudi commercial tankers came under fire earlier in the week, prompting the US to hit Iranian sites, and Iran to respond with strikes on US military sites in Gulf states.

Araghchi accused the US of violating the ceasefire agreement; the US revoked the licence authorising the sale of Iranian crude on July 7 after the vessels were hit.

“There can only be mutual compliance,” he wrote on social media platform X.

While Iran has not claimed responsibility for the ship attacks, analysts say Tehran uses such actions to gain leverage in negotiations.

Senior US officials told reporters on July 10 that Iran had informed US officials that recent attacks on shipping in the strait were from an “errant part of their system”, comments that appeared to be aimed at calming tensions.

The flare-up cast further doubt over the future of an interim agreement aimed at ending the conflict and pushed oil prices higher, a politically sensitive issue for Trump ahead of November congressional elections.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue ‘talks’. We have agreed to do so, but the United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER!” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform on July 10 .

Qatari negotiators met officials in Iran on July 10 to de-escalate tensions and discuss the Strait of Hormuz, a person with knowledge of the situation told Reuters.

Iran threatens to avenge supreme leader’s killing

A written statement from Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, on July 11 threatened vengeance for the death of his predecessor and father , who was killed on Feb 28.

Released to mark the funeral ceremonies for former leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which the new leader did not attend, it said the vengeance would take place whatever happened to Iran.

“We pledge to avenge the blood of the martyred leader and all the martyrs,” the message said.

Trump had posted on July 10 that he had ordered the US military to be prepared to launch thousands of missiles against Iran if Tehran attempted to assassinate him.

The Wall Street Journal and other US media reported this week that Israel had shared intelligence with Washington that Iran had recently devised a plan to assassinate Trump.

There was no immediate comment from Iran on Trump’s latest remarks.

At the funeral ceremonies on July 9 , a huge crowd of mourners packed a courtyard, some bearing banners reading “We Will Kill Trump”.

US officials report constructive conversations with Iran

The June interim deal was meant to pave the way for the end of a conflict now in its fifth month, which has killed thousands, throttled worldwide energy supplies and raised fears of a global economic downturn.

During the war, Tehran has largely taken control of the Strait of Hormuz, forcing a stalemate.

The US is demanding that Iran publicly state it will stop attacks on ships in the strait – and that all lanes will be open with no tolls through the waterway, which carried one-fifth of global oil supplies before the war, the senior US officials told reporters on July 10 .

At least 17 people were killed in US strikes on six cities in Iran on July 8 and 9 , the head of the public relations and information centre at Iran’s Health Ministry said. He said 115 people were wounded.

Even so, US officials said conversations between the two countries had been productive in recent days. Tehran said any breach of commitments by Washington would be met with “reciprocal action”.

Renewed fighting in the Gulf has increased the pain for US consumers. After weeks of steady declines, crude oil prices posted their biggest weekly rise in eight weeks. REUTERS

More on this topic

US issues fresh Iran-related sanctions, website shows

US insists Iran commit to stopping attacks in Hormuz strait, say US officials

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MDDI (P) 046/10/2025 . Published by SPH Media Limited, Co. Regn. No. 202120748H . Copyright © 2026 SPH Media Limited. All rights reserved.

打开原文

美国住房改革法自动生效

重要性4/5 中高

法律已正式生效,覆盖住房供给、开发审批和机构购房限制,对多个美国住房产业环节具有中期影响;当前仍缺实施细则和量化测算。

中文摘要

核心结论

美国《21世纪住房发展之路法案》在特朗普既未签署也未否决的情况下自动成为法律。新法通过45项以上条款扩大住房供给、简化开发审批,并限制机构投资者购买部分存量独栋住宅。

重要性评级

评级:4/5(中高)

法律已经生效,对美国住宅开发、建筑材料、住宅建筑商和按揭金融具有中期政策意义。CBS新闻提供了生效程序和主要条款,但缺少预算规模、实施时间表及行业量化影响。

关键事实

  • 法律于美东时间 07/11 00:00(UTC+8 07/11 12:00)自动生效;特朗普以参议院未推进《SAVE America Act》(拯救美国法案)为由拒绝签署住房法案,但也没有行使否决权。
  • 依据美国宪法,国会两院通过的法案送交总统后,如总统在扣除星期日的10天内既不签署也不否决,法案自动生效。
  • 众议院议长Mike Johnson(迈克·约翰逊)于06/29(未给出具体时刻)把法案送交总统,启动10天期限。
  • 该法案获两党大幅多数支持,被报道形容为数十年来覆盖最广的住房立法,包含45项以上条款。
  • 新法旨在通过移除监管障碍、加快环境审查,推动可负担住房开发。
  • 法律设立地方政府试点,支持把空置商业建筑改造为可负担住房;同时释放更多联邦资金,用于工厂预制住宅建设,并取消住宅必须建在运输钢制底盘上的规则。
  • 新法设立住房供给创新基金,支持退伍军人住房机会,并限制机构投资者购买部分独栋住宅。
  • 机构购买限制适用于现有独栋住宅,不覆盖新建住宅,以保留金融机构投资新增供给的激励。

作者观点与证据

CBS新闻把法案生效描述为中期选举前少见的两党共识,并把特朗普拒签与其推动选举立法的政治诉求联系起来。法律自动生效的程序、送交日期和条款范围属于可核实事实;特朗普、参议员Elizabeth Warren(伊丽莎白·沃伦)及约翰逊的表态带有明显政治立场。有关限制机构购房将降低购房者竞争的效果来自法案支持者,文章未提供房价、租金或供应弹性的实证测算。

与相关标的的关系

住宅建筑商和建筑材料企业可能受到审批提速、联邦资金及预制住宅规则调整影响;按揭金融的关联取决于新增住房、成交量和购房者结构的实际变化。机构投资者对存量独栋住宅的收购限制可能改变单户租赁市场竞争,但文章没有列出受约束机构、适用规模、执行机构或具体上市公司。

时效性与限制

文章发布于美东时间 07/11 21:06(UTC+8 07/12 09:06),采集于美东时间 07/12 21:59(UTC+8 07/13 09:59)。报道确认法律生效并概述条款,但未提供完整法案文本、拨款金额、监管细则、生效过渡期或州和地方政府执行差异。

后续跟踪

  • 联邦机构发布的实施细则、拨款规模与执行时间表。
  • 机构投资者购房限制的适用门槛、豁免范围和执法主体。
  • 商业地产改造与工厂预制住宅试点的项目数量。
  • 新屋许可、开工、库存、房价和租金的后续变化。
原文
Bipartisan housing bill automatically becomes law after Trump refuses to sign it

Watch CBS News

Washington — A landmark housing bill automatically became law at 12 a.m. on Saturday after President Trump declined to sign it in protest of the Senate's inaction on an elections bill known as the SAVE America Act.

The bipartisan bill, known as the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act , is the most comprehensive housing legislation in decades. The measure aims to increase housing supply and bring down costs, including by limiting institutional investors from purchasing certain single-family homes.

The president had been set to sign the legislation at a Capitol Hill bill signing ceremony last month, shortly after the House and Senate approved it by wide bipartisan margins . But he abruptly canceled the bill signing hours in advance, and threatened not to sign the legislation until Congress approved the SAVE America Act. That legislation would impose new restrictions on voting and registering to vote.

The president reiterated his intent not to sign the housing bill on Friday morning.

"I will not sign the Housing Bill, which has been fully approved by Congress and sent to the White House, in PROTEST over the fact that the United States Senate is not capable of passing THE SAVE AMERICA ACT, which is polling at 97% with the Republican Party, and very high with the non-politician Dumocrats," the president posted on Truth Social.

Under the Constitution, a bill that has passed both houses of Congress automatically becomes law if the president doesn't sign or veto it within 10 days, excluding Sundays.

Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the chief proponent of the legislation in the Senate, harshly criticized the president's refusal to sign the bill.

"At the stroke of midnight, a huge bipartisan bill to lower housing costs became law without the President's signature. Why did President Trump sit on the landmark housing bill for more than 2 weeks? Maybe because there was nothing in it for him personally — no gold-encrusted ballroom, no Qatari jet, no $2 billion crypto deal. Nothing in the 21st Century ROAD to Housing except ways to make housing more affordable," she said in a statement. "Donald Trump couldn't pick up the pen because he just isn't interested in lowering costs for American families."

The president's decision put his Republican allies in Congress in a difficult position, depriving them of an opportunity to tout their efforts to address concerns about affordability that have remained top of mind for Americans. And despite pressure from the president in recent months, Senate GOP leaders have repeatedly stated that the elections bill does not have enough support to pass.

The housing bill's passage came after months of work and represented a rare moment of bipartisan consensus ahead of the midterm elections. But the president called the bill "a yawn," while making clear that he wants the focus to be on his push to ban voting by mail, requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote and photo ID to cast a ballot.

Despite the president's refusal to sign the bill, he also didn't veto it, allowing it to become law automatically. House Speaker Mike Johnson, who met with the president multiple times on the issue late last month, sent the bill to the president on June 29, starting the 10-day clock.

That day, when asked what he planned to do about the housing bill, Mr. Trump told reporters he didn't know, adding, "I think it's so unimportant" in comparison to the SAVE America Act.

A day later, Johnson responded to Mr. Trump's comments by saying that "the president has a lot going on and I think it's safe to say he's not read through every line of that piece of legislation."

The Louisiana Republican said there's "a lot to it and a lot of great things," and added that he and the president had "spoken about it quite a bit."

"What he was saying is in comparison to ensuring election integrity, which is now represented by the SAVE America Act, nothing is as important," Johnson said. "That's not to say that there are not also incredibly important issues, and the cost of living and affordability is among them. It's top of mind."

Johnson ultimately expressed confidence that the bill would become law, noting that he had encouraged the president to sign it with "the fattest black marker you have," while telling him the results of the legislation "are going to be very, very good for the American people."

"So I hope he does sign it. If he doesn't, it's still law; we'll still celebrate it," Johnson said. "But he's trying to make a point and I think he's making it very effectively."

What the housing law does

The new law includes more than 45 provisions, many of which are aimed at increasing development of affordable housing by removing regulatory barriers and streamlining environmental reviews. It also launches a pilot program to aid local governments in converting vacant commercial buildings into affordable housing, unlocks more federal funding for the construction of factory-built homes and eliminates a rule that requires homes to be built on a chassis — a steel framework used to transport them.

In addition, it creates an innovation fund for communities that are increasing their housing supply, supports housing opportunities for veterans and limits the purchases of single-family homes by institutional investors.

The institutional-investor limits are aimed at cutting competition to benefit homebuyers, supporters say. And applying to existing single-family homes, rather than new construction, the law preserves incentives for financial firms to invest in new housing construction.

Bipartisan housing bill becomes law

Congress passes housing bill without Trump's signature

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Congress passes housing bill without Trump's signature

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打开原文

格雷厄姆去世与参院席位变局

重要性4/5 高优先级

美联社提供了死亡事实、初步医学结论、继任程序及政治职务等明确证据;事件紧邻俄罗斯制裁推进和11月选举,可能影响美国外交、财政与参院议程,但实际政策后果尚未形成。

中文摘要

核心结论

美国南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆去世,初步法医结论指向与动脉硬化相关的主动脉夹层;正式死因仍待毒理和显微检查确认。他的离世同时造成参议院预算、司法与外交政策领域的人事缺口,并使俄罗斯制裁推进、共和党微弱多数下的财政立法及南卡罗来纳州参议员选举出现新的不确定性。

重要性评级

评级:4/5(高优先级)

报道来自美联社,死亡事实、初步医学结论、继任程序和政治职务均有明确来源。事件发生于周末,紧邻俄罗斯制裁协议推进与11月选举,对美国外交和财政政策具有较强时效性,但尚无证据证明相关法案或政策路径已经改变。

关键事实

  • 格雷厄姆在去世前两天刚满71岁,已在美国国会任职逾30年,并自2002年起担任参议员。
  • 其办公室援引初步法医结论称,主动脉内壁撕裂形成主动脉夹层,相关基础病因为动脉硬化;正式死因需等待毒理和显微检查。
  • 格雷厄姆是特朗普总统在国会最亲近的盟友之一,也是主张更强硬美国外交政策的代表人物,长期关注俄罗斯、乌克兰、伊朗和以色列事务。
  • 他在去世前一天宣布,已与特朗普政府就推进一揽子俄罗斯制裁达成协议;报道未说明其离世后该方案的具体立法安排。
  • 格雷厄姆担任参议院预算委员会主席。共和党在参议院仅占53席,对47席,预算程序曾帮助共和党绕过民主党阻挠,按党派票推进税收等重大政策。
  • 他曾任参议院司法委员会主席,并计划在共和党中期选举后继续保持多数的条件下,推动更多保守派法官确认。
  • 南卡罗来纳州法律规定,共和党籍州长亨利·麦克马斯特将任命临时继任者;空缺出现后数周内必须举行特别初选,11月大选胜者将于次年1月开始完整六年任期。
  • 格雷厄姆在6月共和党初选中获得57%的选票,原计划在11月争取第五个任期;其去世将使这一席位转为罕见的开放席位。

作者观点与证据

报道将格雷厄姆描述为能够影响特朗普及共和党同僚的关键参议员,并通过其委员会职位、俄罗斯制裁谈判、跨党派合作经历和多名政界人士的评价支撑这一判断。有关其“不可替代”的说法来自州长及同僚的悼念性表述,带有明显人物评价色彩;文章尚未提供继任人选、制裁法案进度或委员会权力重新分配的确定结果。

与相关标的的关系

  • 全球宏观:格雷厄姆长期参与乌克兰、俄罗斯、伊朗和以色列政策,其离世可能影响相关议题在参议院的协调方式,但文章未证明美国外交路线已经转向。
  • 俄罗斯制裁:他去世前刚宣布与政府达成推进制裁方案的协议,后续需观察是否由其他参议员接手以及文本、表决日程是否变化。
  • 美国财政政策:预算委员会主席空缺发生在共和党仅有53比47席优势的背景下,可能影响党内协调和预算程序节奏;报道未给出具体财政法案受到延误的证据。
  • 证券标的:文章未关联具体上市公司或股票代码,相关性主要来自美国政策与地缘政治路径。

时效性与限制

报道发布于美东时间 07/11 18:38(UTC+8 07/12 06:38),检索于美东时间 07/12 21:59(UTC+8 07/13 09:59)。医学结论仍属初步结果,政治影响也处于继任安排尚未确定的早期阶段。

后续跟踪

  • 南卡罗来纳州州长任命的临时参议员及特别初选日程。
  • 参议院预算委员会主席和司法委员会后续领导安排。
  • 俄罗斯制裁方案的接手人、正式文本与表决时间。
  • 共和党53比47席多数下,财政和司法提名议程是否出现延误。
原文
Sen. Lindsey Graham likely died after aorta tear, medical examiner says

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U.S. News

Sen. Lindsey Graham likely died after aorta tear, medical examiner says

Sen. Lindsey Graham likely died after aorta tear, medical examiner says

1 of 7 |

U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, one of President Donald Trump’s closest allies in Congress who traveled the globe to advocate for a more muscular U.S. foreign policy abroad, died Saturday evening after a “brief and sudden illness,” his office said in a statement on social media. He was 71. (Produced by Elaine Carroll)

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2 of 7 |

Sen. Lindsey Graham, one of President Donald Trump’s closest allies in Congress who traveled the globe to advocate for a more aggressive U.S. foreign policy, has died after a “brief and sudden illness,” his office said. He was 71.

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3 of 7 |

U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. answers questions from the media near an exhibition of damaged Russian vehicles in central Kyiv, on July 10, 2026. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, File)

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4 of 7 |

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, left, and U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. in Kyiv, Ukraine, Friday, July 10, 2026. (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)

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5 of 7 |

Senators John McCain, R-Ariz., from left, Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Joseph Lieberman, I-Conn., attend a press conference, July 5, 2010 in Kabul, Afghanistan. (AP Photo/Dusan Vranic, File)

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6 of 7 |

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., left, gestures as President Donald Trump speaks with reporters while in flight on Air Force One, Jan. 4, 2026, as they were returning to Joint Base Andrews, Md. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

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7 of 7 |

U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. answer media questions near damaged Russian vehicles exhibition in central Kyiv, Friday, July 10, 2026. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

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Sen. Lindsey Graham likely died after aorta tear, medical examiner says

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1 of 7

U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, one of President Donald Trump’s closest allies in Congress who traveled the globe to advocate for a more muscular U.S. foreign policy abroad, died Saturday evening after a “brief and sudden illness,” his office said in a statement on social media. He was 71. (Produced by Elaine Carroll)

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2 of 7

Sen. Lindsey Graham, one of President Donald Trump’s closest allies in Congress who traveled the globe to advocate for a more aggressive U.S. foreign policy, has died after a “brief and sudden illness,” his office said. He was 71.

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3 of 7 |

U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. answers questions from the media near an exhibition of damaged Russian vehicles in central Kyiv, on July 10, 2026. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, File)

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3 of 7

U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. answers questions from the media near an exhibition of damaged Russian vehicles in central Kyiv, on July 10, 2026. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, File)

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4 of 7 |

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, left, and U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. in Kyiv, Ukraine, Friday, July 10, 2026. (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)

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4 of 7

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, left, and U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. in Kyiv, Ukraine, Friday, July 10, 2026. (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)

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5 of 7 |

Senators John McCain, R-Ariz., from left, Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Joseph Lieberman, I-Conn., attend a press conference, July 5, 2010 in Kabul, Afghanistan. (AP Photo/Dusan Vranic, File)

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5 of 7

Senators John McCain, R-Ariz., from left, Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Joseph Lieberman, I-Conn., attend a press conference, July 5, 2010 in Kabul, Afghanistan. (AP Photo/Dusan Vranic, File)

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6 of 7 |

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., left, gestures as President Donald Trump speaks with reporters while in flight on Air Force One, Jan. 4, 2026, as they were returning to Joint Base Andrews, Md. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

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6 of 7

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., left, gestures as President Donald Trump speaks with reporters while in flight on Air Force One, Jan. 4, 2026, as they were returning to Joint Base Andrews, Md. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

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7 of 7 |

U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. answer media questions near damaged Russian vehicles exhibition in central Kyiv, Friday, July 10, 2026. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

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7 of 7

U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. answer media questions near damaged Russian vehicles exhibition in central Kyiv, Friday, July 10, 2026. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

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By

SEUNG MIN KIM , MARY CLARE JALONICK and MEG KINNARD

Updated [hour]:[minute] [AMPM] [timezone], [monthFull] [day], [year]

Leer en español

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Sen. Lindsey Graham , one of President Donald Trump’s closest allies in Congress who traveled the globe to advocate for a more aggressive U.S. foreign policy , died after a tear in his aorta, according to a preliminary medical examiner finding shared by his office.

The tear in the inner wall of the aorta, called an aortic dissection, was related to the hardening of Graham’s arteries. An official cause of death will be disclosed after toxicological and microscopic testing.

Graham, a prominent South Carolina Republican and former Air Force lawyer who served in Congress for more than three decades, had turned 71 years old just two days before dying on Saturday night. His office had originally said he had suffered from a “brief and sudden illness.”

Trump, who talked to Graham frequently , said he was “like a member of the family. It’s very tough.” He said on NBC’s ”Meet the Press” that Graham had called him on Saturday night after returning from a trip to Ukraine and “sounded a little bit tired, but perfect.” The president ordered that flags across the country be flown at half-staff until next Saturday evening.

A noted foreign policy hawk, Graham was one of the most influential figures in Washington on international affairs and he advised Trump on matters such as the Iran war and Russia. On Friday, Graham had announced an agreement with the Trump administration to move forward on a package of Russia sanctions .

As chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, Graham also had a central role during Trump’s second term as Republicans pushed major legislation on party-line votes while holding a narrow 53-47 majority in the chamber.

Under South Carolina law, Republican Gov. Henry McMaster will appoint a temporary replacement for Graham, who was seeking a fifth term in November. A new nominee will be selected in a special primary, which is required to be held within weeks of a vacancy. The winner of November’s general election will start a full six-year term in January.

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Graham had a close, complicated relationship with Trump

Graham, elected to the Senate in 2002 after serving in the House, long promoted a policy of robust U.S. military interventionism and strong national defense that in later years would put him at odds with the growing isolationist wing of his party.

Over time, Graham became well-known for his close ties with Trump , whom the senator briefly ran against for the presidential nomination in 2016.

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Their relationship would begin on a rough note, with Graham calling the then-New York businessman “unfit for office.” Graham used a profanity to describe Trump after Trump made disparaging comments about Arizona Republican John McCain, Graham’s best friend in the Senate and a Vietnam War veteran. McCain and Graham, along with Sen. Joe Lieberman , I-Conn., were known as the “Three Amigos” and frequently traveled together to promote their foreign policy views around the globe.

During a campaign rally in South Carolina, Trump read out Graham’s personal cellphone number and continued to belittle him throughout the 2016 race as Graham made it clear he would not support Trump.

Graham, however, shifted significantly once Trump won the White House and emerged as one of Trump’s top allies — speaking with him frequently and becoming a regular presence on the golf course alongside the president — even as McCain remained a critic.

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In a 2018 interview with The Associated Press , Graham explained his pivot by saying McCain taught him that the country must move forward after elections and that meant “you have an obligation” to help the president. McCain ran twice for the White House.

“And I’ve tried to be helpful where I could because I think he needs all the help he can get,” Graham said of Trump. “You can be a better critic when people understand that you’re trying to help them be successful.”

Graham was a prominent defender of Trump during the president’s two first-term impeachments — a reversal from Graham’s role as a House prosecutor during Democratic President Bill Clinton’s impeachment in 1998, when he urged senators not to make up their minds before listening to all of the arguments. Both Trump and Clinton were eventually acquitted.

Graham appeared to break with Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, saying in a dramatic speech on the Senate floor that night, “Count me out. Enough is enough.” But the senator soon returned to Trump’s side and the two remained close during Trump’s second term.

Foreign policy was a focus for Graham

Graham had just been in Ukraine to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said the senator visited his country 10 times during the years since Russia invaded in February 2022. “Lindsey was a true defender of freedom and the values that make our world safer,” Zelenskyy said.

He was also one of the chief backers of Trump’s war in Iran, having advocated for years for direct confrontation between Washington and Tehran. Graham continued to defend Trump this summer even as many of fellow Republicans questioned a tentative June ceasefire agreement that they worried could send billions of dollars to Iran.

“I’d rather try diplomacy than take it off the table,” Graham said of Trump’s memorandum of understanding with Tehran.

Graham’s travels made him a familiar face to dozens of world leaders.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Graham understood that the security of Israel and the United States was inseparable.

“Israel has lost one of its greatest friends. America has lost a great patriot. I have lost a beloved friend,” Netanyahu said.

Graham led both the Senate Budget and Judiciary committees

As Budget Committee chairman, Graham helped oversee a Senate procedure that allowed Republicans to pass significant policies such as last year’s tax law without the threat of a Democratic filibuster.

He had previously led the Senate Judiciary Committee when Republicans confirmed Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court in 2020. The senator was in line to regain that gavel if the party kept its majority after the midterm elections and had pledged to confirm “as many conservative judges as possible.”

Graham was a key player in the Senate’s efforts to craft a massive immigration overhaul in 2013 as a member of a bipartisan group. The legislation passed the Senate with 68 votes but was never taken up by the House, so it did not become law.

Graham’s views on immigration, particularly an endorsement of a path to citizenship for people in the U.S. without legal status, put him at odds with some Republican factions.

Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin, a Democrat who was his ally on that issue, said Graham was “part of every important policy issue and an indispensable player” in bipartisan negotiations.

An ‘irreplaceable’ force in the Senate

Graham often worked across the aisle, even as he remained fiercely loyal to Trump. Virginia Sen. Mark Warner, a Democrat, said in a statement that “personal relationships often mattered more to him than the political disagreements of the day.”

Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., said Graham was “over the moon” with the Russian sanctions deal announced Friday. “The last thing in the world I would have guessed was that he was sick or ill or in any way vulnerable,” Blumenthal said.

Jaime Harrison, a former national and state Democratic Party chairman who unsuccessfully ran against Graham in 2020, said that even during their “fiercest political battles” the two men “could still share a conversation, a laugh, and a mutual respect for South Carolina.”

Graham was unique in the Senate for his influence not only on Trump, but also with his fellow Republicans who were aware of his ability to sometimes move the president’s thinking. He was also known for his sense of humor, often deployed to diffuse tensions.

Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, the second-ranking Republican, said Graham will be missed for his “quick wit and infectious laughter.”

McMaster said in a statement that Graham was “irreplaceable.” Former Republican President George W. Bush said Graham “understood how the world works” and “was a kind and funny man who loved our country and loved serving it.”

Graham often spoke about his humble roots, growing up in the back of a South Carolina bar and helping to raise his sister, Darline, after his parents died at a young age. Graham was not married and did not have children.

Special election to replace Graham could be within weeks

Graham won 57% of the GOP vote in South Carolina’s primary in June and was up against Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, and several minor party and independent candidates in November.

His death will likely prompt a scramble to fill a rare open Senate seat.

A number of Republican names began circulating as possible replacements to serve out the rest of Graham’s term, including three candidates who fell short for the party’s nomination for governor this year — Rep. Nancy Mace, Rep. Ralph Norman and Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette.

Also in the mix is Rep. Russell Fry, who was elected to the House in 2022.

___

Kinnard reported from Columbia, S.C. Associated Press writers Chris Megerian and Will Weissert in Washington, Bill Barrow in Atlanta, Brian P. D. Hannon in Bangkok and Geir Moulson in Berlin contributed to this report.

SEUNG MIN KIM

Kim covers the White House for The Associated Press. She joined the AP in 2022 and is based in Washington. Kim is also a political analyst for CNN.

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MEG KINNARD

Kinnard covers national politics for The Associated Press. She lives in South Carolina.

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打开原文

比特币守住六万四千美元

重要性3/5 中

覆盖 BTC、ETH、SOL 的最新周末报价及美国监管议题,但单点价格数据有限,且 ETH 涨跌表述冲突,适合作为后续核验线索。

中文摘要

核心结论

文章称,Bitcoin(比特币)在霍尔木兹紧张局势下仍维持在 64,000 美元上方,周末市场将其视为少数可即时交易的高流动性资产之一。报道同时把关注点放在美国数字资产立法和 BIP-110(比特币改进提案 110)的社区分歧,但这些议题尚未显示出已落地的监管或共识规则变化。

重要性评级

评级:3/5(中)

文章直接覆盖 BTC、ETH、SOL 的周末价格与美国监管讨论,发布时间较新;但价格描述仅为单一时点,且正文对 ETH 的涨跌表述互相矛盾,证据强度有限。

关键事实

  • Bitcoin 于美东时间 07/12 12:09(UTC+8 07/13 00:09)报 64,188 美元,较前一时点上涨 0.02%。
  • 文章称,美国总统特朗普与 CENTCOM(美国中央司令部)表示霍尔木兹海峡保持开放;市场等待原油市场重开后对地区局势的定价。
  • 参议员辛西娅·卢米斯再次呼吁国会通过 CLARITY Act(数字资产市场监管职责划分法案);报道称法案已获众议院通过,拟明确 SEC(美国证券交易委员会)与 CFTC(美国商品期货交易委员会)的监管分工。
  • BIP-110 拟暂时限制区块链上非金融数据存储,早期 8 月期限临近;文章称主要矿池支持率低于 1%,当前信号不足以促成激活。
  • Strategy(比特币储备公司)董事长迈克尔·塞勒和 Blockstream(比特币基础设施公司)联合创始人亚当·巴克反对为处理链上“垃圾数据”修改共识规则,认为改动可能带来更长期风险。
  • 新加坡警方与包括 Coinbase(加密货币交易所)在内的 7 家交易所开展为期六周行动,通过链上分析识别逾 145 名潜在受害者,称阻止超过 420 万美元潜在诈骗损失。
  • 文章称 ETH 是主要加密资产中唯一上涨者,随后又报 ETH 下跌 0.16%至 1,819.71 美元;SOL 下跌 1.41%,该表述存在内部矛盾。

作者观点与证据

作者把比特币的横盘表现解读为对地缘政治风险具韧性,并将监管立法与协议治理争议列为后续驱动因素。价格依据为单一周日盘中报价,立法进展、矿池支持率和新加坡执法行动提供背景,但无法证明它们已造成当日价格变化。

与相关标的的关系

BTC 直接对应文中 64,188 美元的周末报价及 BIP-110、美国监管议题。ETH 与 SOL 仅有简短价格描述:ETH 报价存在涨跌矛盾,SOL 被报道下跌 1.41%,未提供成交量、资金流或衍生品数据。

时效性与限制(仅在有新增信息时)

文章发布于 07/12(未给出具体时刻),检索于美东时间 07/12 22:30(UTC+8 07/13 10:30)。原文经浏览器渲染页面取得,直接及代理归档请求于 07/13 返回 HTTP 403;ETH 涨跌表述冲突,不能据此确认其当日方向。

后续跟踪

  • 原油市场重开后,地缘政治风险与加密资产价格的同步性。
  • CLARITY Act 在参议院的审议与监管分工的正式进展。
  • BIP-110 的矿池信号支持率及 8 月期限前的社区立场。
  • BTC、ETH、SOL 的后续现货成交、衍生品持仓和资金费率数据。
原文
Bitcoin steadies above $64,000 as investors shrug off Hormuz tensions

Bitcoin steadies above $64,000 as investors shrug off Hormuz tensions

Investing.com -- Bitcoin traded little changed above $64,000 on Sunday, proving resilient to geopolitical uncertainty after Washington reaffirmed that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained uninterrupted, with traders also weighing fresh momentum for U.S. digital asset regulation.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading marginally up by 0.02% at $64,188 as of 12:09 ET (17:09 GMT) after President Donald Trump and U.S. CENTCOM both said that Strait of Hormuz is opened despite Iran’s claims of closure of the critical shipping route.

Unlike previous Middle East flare-ups, crypto markets showed little sign of panic. With traditional financial markets closed for the weekend, Bitcoin was effectively the only major liquid asset available to price geopolitical developments. Investors are now watching the reopening of oil markets to see whether crude prices reflect the latest tensions.

Attention is also turning to Washington, where Senator Cynthia Lummis renewed calls for Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, warning that the current legislative session could be the best opportunity to establish a comprehensive U.S. regulatory framework for digital assets before 2030.

The bill, which has already cleared the House, would clarify oversight responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s developer community remains divided over BIP-110, a proposal that would temporarily restrict non-financial data stored on the blockchain. The proposal faces an early August deadline but has attracted virtually no support from major mining pools, with miner backing remaining below 1%.

Prominent Bitcoin advocates, including Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor and Blockstream co-founder Adam Back, have warned that changing Bitcoin’s consensus rules to address blockchain “spam” could create greater long-term risks than the issue itself.

Current signaling suggests the proposal is unlikely to secure enough support to activate.

Separately, Singapore highlighted growing cooperation between regulators and the crypto industry after police and seven cryptocurrency exchanges, including Coinbase, helped prevent more than $4.2 million in potential scam losses during a six-week operation.

Authorities used blockchain analytics to identify more than 145 potential victims before transfers were completed, underscoring the increasing role of public-private partnerships in strengthening trust across the digital asset ecosystem.

Crypto price today: altcoins mostly lower on Sunday

Broader cryptocurrency markets also traded lower on Sunday. Only ETH posted gains among leading cryptos.

World no. 2 crypto Ethereum fell 0.16% to 1,819.71.

World no. 3 crypto XRP fell 1.13% to $1.0940.

Solana declined 1.41%, and Cardano also crashed nearly 4%.

Among meme tokens, Dogecoin dropped 1.93%.

(Simon Mugo contributed reporting)

打开原文

Meta自研芯片量产提速

重要性5/5 高

内部备忘录披露了Meta自研芯片量产、算力扩容和资本开支目标,直接牵连人工智能芯片、代工、存储及数据中心供应链。

中文摘要

核心结论

路透社称,Meta(Meta Platforms,社交媒体平台公司)计划自9月启动代号“Iris”的自研人工智能芯片制造,并把2027年算力总量目标定为14吉瓦。该项目可降低其对英伟达和AMD图形处理器的依赖,但定位仍是补充既有采购。

重要性评级

评级:5/5(高)

消息涉及Meta的芯片采购结构、数据中心扩张节奏及多家半导体供应商,且包含内部备忘录中的量产和容量目标;对META、NVDA、AMD、AVGO、TSM及半导体行业ETF(SOXX,费城半导体行业交易所交易基金)具有直接阅读价值。

关键事实

  • 路透社查阅的内部备忘录显示,Meta拟于9月开始生产“Iris”;公司未就报道置评。
  • “Iris”属于Meta Training and Inference Accelerators(MTIA,Meta训练与推理加速器)四代自研芯片计划,用于Facebook和Instagram的人工智能服务。
  • 备忘录称,芯片测试历时6周,未发现重大问题;这一进展发生在该自研计划启动逾五年后。
  • Broadcom(博通,半导体设计协作方)参与设计,TSM(台积电,晶圆代工厂)负责制造。
  • Meta预计2026年部署7吉瓦计算基础设施:上半年新增1吉瓦,全年剩余时间拟再增加2.5吉瓦;报道已更正该数字,原先误写为5.5吉瓦。
  • 公司计划2027年把总算力提升至14吉瓦,并预计2026年人工智能基础设施支出最高达1,450亿美元。
  • 备忘录还列出三星电子的存储芯片、Sandisk(闪迪,闪存存储供应商)及住友电工的光纤设备等多年期供应协议。

作者观点与证据

文章将“Iris”的6周测试结果和9月生产计划视为Meta自研芯片项目恢复推进的信号。主要依据为路透社审阅的内部备忘录;量产执行、成本节约幅度及各供应协议的实际交付规模尚未获得Meta或多数供应商公开确认。

与相关标的的关系

  • META:自研芯片若按计划投产,可能影响其长期算力成本与人工智能基础设施配置方式;短期仍需大量采购英伟达和AMD图形处理器。
  • NVDA、AMD:文章明确称“Iris”用于补充而非替换现有图形处理器采购,需求变化仍取决于Meta扩容进度和芯片部署效果。
  • AVGO、TSM:博通参与设计、台积电承担制造,项目量产节奏关系到两者新增定制芯片订单的兑现。
  • COHR、VRT及SOXX:文章提供的是人工智能数据中心资本开支、存储与光纤供应链扩张背景,未给出这些标的的具体订单或财务数据。

时效性与限制(仅在有新增信息时)

归档元数据显示文章为07/12(未给出具体时刻)发布,路透报道正文写作日期为7月9日。该报道基于内部备忘录,Meta未置评;文中提到的1,450亿美元支出为公司预期,尚非已实现投入。

后续跟踪

  • 9月前后“Iris”是否进入实际制造及首批部署规模。
  • Meta 2026年新增2.5吉瓦算力目标与2027年14吉瓦目标的披露进度。
  • 图形处理器采购量、自研芯片占比及人工智能资本开支指引的变化。
  • 博通、台积电、存储和光纤供应商对订单、产能与交付的公开表述。
原文
Meta to put AI chip into production in September as it looks to double computing capacity, memo shows

Skip to main content

Meta to put AI chip into production in September as it looks to double computing capacity, memo shows

Mon 13/07/2026 - 03:46

(Corrects figure in paragraph 11 to 2.5 gigawatts by end of year, not 5.5 gigawatts.)

By Katie Paul, Max A. Cherney and Stephen Nellis

NEW YORK/SAN FRANCISCO, July 9 (Reuters) - Meta Platforms plans to start manufacturing an artificial intelligence chip from September as part of its plan to boost overall computing power to 14 gigawatts next year, showed an internal memo reviewed by Reuters.

The tech firm's data center chip, code-named "Iris," is part of a four-generation project for Meta Training and Inference Accelerators (MTIA) that it will design in-house. The plan is to use custom-built silicon to improve the AI that powers its Facebook and Instagram social media platforms.

Testing the chip took only six weeks and found no major issues, the memo showed. That relatively quick progress signals positive momentum for an in-house effort that has floundered since its launch more than half a decade ago.

Meta tailored the chip for its own needs and is working with Broadcom to help design it and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co to manufacture it. The approach is likely to help the firm lower its massive computing costs and gain more independence from chip suppliers such as Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices.

The bug-testing completion and production timing have not been previously reported. Meta declined to comment.

The chip is meant to augment the large quantities of graphics processing units (GPUs) used for AI applications that Meta purchases from Nvidia and AMD.

However, adopting the latest GPUs at a firm as large as Meta "has been a heavy lift, and it has cost us time," the memo showed.

Shares fell after the report but recovered after the company announced developer access to an AI coding model that pits it directly against OpenAI and Anthropic. They were trading up 4.6% in late afternoon trading.

"You can't become an AI titan if you are dependent on another company for chips," said Mike Gualtieri, a vice president and principal analyst at research firm Forrester. "The hyperscalers and even SpaceX all plan chips because it will be the only way to compete on price for model usage."

Meta unveiled Iris under its technical name in March along with three other AI processors. It plans to launch a chip about every six months through 2027, whereas typically firms release AI chips at intervals of a year or more.

SEVEN GIGAWATTS OF COMPUTING IN 2026

Meta this year plans to deploy seven gigawatts of computing infrastructure, the memo showed. To reach that total, Meta added 1 gigawatt in the first half of the year and forecasts adding another 2.5 gigawatts by the end of the year, the memo said.

One gigawatt of energy is enough to power about 800,000 homes.

The company plans to double capacity again next year to reach a total of 14 gigawatts in 2027, the memo said.

The firm expects to spend as much as $145 billion on AI infrastructure this year, a significant portion of Big Tech's more than $700 billion projected outlay on the technology.

To expand computing infrastructure, Meta has secured long-term, multi-year supply agreements, the memo showed. Those include agreements with Samsung Electronics for memory chips, Sandisk for flash storage and Sumitomo Electric for fiber-optic equipment.

Such long-term agreements have become critical for data center expansion targets amid a memory chip shortage that has prompted companies such as Apple to raise prices.

Sandisk declined to comment. Samsung Electronics and Sumitomo Electric did not respond to requests for comment.

Components such as memory and AI chips have experienced a surge in demand as tech companies race to expand data centers to keep pace with AI's thirst for computing power.

Memory and other chip prices have risen rapidly and substantially enough that "chipflation" has become a macroeconomic concern, Morgan Stanley analysts said.

(Reporting by Katie Paul in New York, and Max A. Cherney and Stephen Nellis in San Francisco; Editing by Christopher Cushing and David Gaffen)

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海力士双重上市估值波动

重要性4/5 高

时效性强,直接涉及SKHYV的跨市场定价与AI存储链需求预期;CNBC报道含具体价格和价差数据,但中期判断主要来自分析师访谈。

中文摘要

核心结论

SK海力士在纳斯达克(美国科技股交易所)首日大涨13%后,首尔股价于周一回落逾10%。文章将波动归因于获利了结、双重上市估值重新定价及新增股份供给,受访分析师仍以人工智能(AI)存储芯片供需偏紧支持中期需求判断。

重要性评级

评级:4/5(高)

报道发布于美东时间07/12 22:15(UTC+8 07/13 10:15),直接涉及SK海力士及AI存储芯片估值,且给出跨市场价差和上市供给两项具体解释;价格表现与中期需求判断主要来自受访分析师。

关键事实

  • SK海力士首尔股价周一下跌逾10%;文章称公司此前在美国首次交易日上涨13%。
  • 元大证券全球策略师Daniel Yoo称,市场正在重新评估存储芯片需求、未来供给与合理估值倍数。
  • Yoo指出,台积电美国存托凭证ADR(美国存托凭证)相对其本土股份约有13%至14%溢价;SK海力士美国与韩国上市股份之间出现逾20%的折价。
  • Yoo将本轮回落部分归于新增股份发行,认为供给增加推动韩国本土市场进入修正阶段。
  • Rayliant Global Advisors首席研究官Phillip Wool称,韩国和台湾AI硬件股的卖压反映部分投资者降低此前累积的高仓位。
  • 两名受访者均认为,近期价格走弱尚未显示AI硬件需求预期发生下修;Yoo预计未来6至12个月需求仍可能快于供给。

作者观点与证据

文章倾向于将下跌界定为估值和持仓调整,而非AI存储行业基本面恶化。支撑材料包括首日涨幅、双重上市价差、新股供给及两名市场人士访谈;文中没有提供SK海力士订单、产能、售价或财报数据,供需判断属于分析师预期。

与相关标的的关系

SKHYV为该报道关联标的,价格波动直接反映其美国上市后与韩国本土股份的估值协调。NVDA(英伟达)仅通过AI基础设施需求链条间接受关联;报道未披露英伟达订单、采购量或合作变化。

时效性与限制(仅在有新增信息时)

报道发布于美东时间07/12 22:15(UTC+8 07/13 10:15)。文中没有给出首尔市场下跌的盘中时点、成交数据或美国与韩国股份可交易性差异的完整测算。

后续跟踪

  • 美国与韩国上市股份之间的折溢价是否收敛。
  • SK海力士新增股份的实际流通量及后续交易表现。
  • 存储芯片供给扩张、客户订单与售价数据。
  • AI硬件需求是否从芯片扩大至存储供应商收入与利润指引。
原文
SK Hynix shares slide 10% in Seoul after stellar Nasdaq debut

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Key Points

  • SK Hynix Inc. shares tumbled over 10% in Seoul on Monday after the chipmaker's blockbuster Nasdaq debut.
  • Analysts says the pullback is likely to prove temporary as structural AI demand continues to outpace supply.

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SK Hynix Inc. signage at the company's office in Seongnam, South Korea, on Tuesday, June 30, 2026.

SeongJoon Cho | Bloomberg | Getty Images

SK Hynix shares tumbled more than 10% in Seoul on Monday after the chipmaker's strong Nasdaq debut Friday, as investors locked in profits and weighed whether surging demand for artificial intelligence memory chips justified the stock's sharp gains.

The South Korean memory-chip maker had jumped 13% in its Wall Street debut on Friday, reflecting strong appetite from U.S. investors for AI-linked semiconductor stocks.

The decline on Monday reflects a mix of profit-taking and uncertainty over how the U.S.-listed shares should be valued relative to the Korean stock, with analysts saying the ADR debut has effectively created a new benchmark for investors to assess the company's valuation.

"Everybody's really confused about what's going to happen to the memory demand and where the fair price is," Daniel Yoo, global strategist at Yuanta Securities, said on " Squawk Box Asia. " "It's all about how much demand is there versus how much supply is going to come in ... [and] what kind of multiple you will be getting."

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co .'s U.S.-listed ADRs trade at a roughly 13% to 14% premium to its domestic shares, Yoo pointed out, adding that SK Hynix's sharp move has created a discount rate of more than 20% between its U.S. and Korean listings.

Yoo said the sell-off was also driven by the mechanics of the offering, calling it "additional share issuance" that increased the supply of stock available to investors. "The market is taking this as a correctional period for SK Hynix domestically."

The pullback was likely to prove temporary as structural AI demand continues to outpace supply, he said, adding that shares will likely move "in the right direction" over the next six to 12 months despite near-term volatility.

Phillip Wool, chief research officer at Rayliant Global Advisors, also downplayed the recent weakness in Asian AI hardware names, describing it as a portfolio rebalancing exercise rather than a deterioration in the industry's outlook.

"I think it's mostly risk management," Wool said, noting that many investors had accumulated outsized positions in South Korean and Taiwanese AI chipmakers after their strong gains. "Prudent risk management suggests you have to scale those back."

He added that the selling "doesn't really speak to any sort of reduction in the excitement about AI hardware." Wool said the AI investment was broadening beyond semiconductors, but that should continue to benefit memory suppliers such as SK Hynix.

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打开原文

中国暂停氦气出口

重要性4/5 中高

政策动作具时效性,且氦气是晶圆制造关键工业气体;但对相关半导体公司的实际供给、成本与产量影响尚缺公司层面证据。

中文摘要

核心结论

中国于07/10(未给出具体时刻)宣布立即临时禁止氦气出口,理由是美国与伊朗紧张局势再起可能扰乱中东供应并造成国内短缺。氦气用于半导体制造的冷却、刻蚀和检漏,出口限制可能进一步收紧全球现货供应。

重要性评级

评级:4/5(中高)

该措施涉及中东冲突下的关键工业气体供应链,文章明确点出芯片制造用途;对GFS、MRVL、NVDA、TSM及SOXX的影响属于供应链风险观察,未披露这些公司实际受限的采购量或生产损失。

关键事实

  • 中国在07/10(未给出具体时刻)宣布氦气临时出口禁令,并称措施立即生效。
  • 文章称,2026年早些时候美国—以色列与伊朗的战争已引发氦气短缺,影响了包括中国在内的全球企业。
  • 中国人工智能产业使用国内芯片训练和运行模型,对半导体生产中的热管理需求上升。
  • 氦气用于晶圆冷却、等离子刻蚀、化学气相沉积、原子层沉积、光刻辅助及泄漏检测。
  • 分析师估计,中国约85%或以上的氦气需求依赖进口;卡塔尔近年供应了中国进口量的一半以上。
  • 中国企业会进口俄罗斯氦气并向欧洲等海外市场转售,因此禁令可能压缩国际可得供应。
  • 氦气来自高浓度氦气天然气田,无法通过一般工业流程迅速替代或增产。

作者观点与证据

文章认为,中东军事冲突与中国出口限制会共同加剧氦气供给紧张,半导体制造是受关注的下游环节。出口禁令和氦气工艺用途为已陈述事实;中国进口占比、卡塔尔供应占比及全球缺口程度来自分析师估计,未附具体贸易数据库或公司采购数据。

与相关标的的关系

  • GFS、TSM:晶圆制造需使用氦气进行多项工艺,供应收紧可能增加采购和生产连续性压力;文章没有披露两家公司在中国的氦气来源或库存。
  • NVDA、MRVL:二者作为芯片设计和网络芯片公司,关联路径主要是晶圆代工与供应链成本,文章未显示直接生产中断。
  • SOXX:该行业ETF反映半导体板块,氦气短缺是行业层面的供应风险背景,并非成分股业绩结论。

时效性与限制(仅在有新增信息时)

文章发布于07/10(未给出具体时刻),归档检索于美东时间 07/12 22:30(UTC+8 07/13 10:30)。原文以供应中断风险和分析师估计为主,未提供禁令期限、出口量、豁免范围或下游企业的实际库存数据。

后续跟踪

  • 中国主管部门对禁令期限、适用范围和豁免条件的正式说明。
  • 卡塔尔、俄罗斯及其他氦气产地的物流与出口连续性。
  • 晶圆厂对氦气库存、替代来源和生产排程的公开披露。
  • 氦气现货价格、长约报价及半导体材料供应商的交付状态。
原文
China temporarily bans helium exports as US-Iran tensions flare again

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China temporarily bans helium exports as US-Iran tensions flare again

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Resumption of military conflict in the Middle East threatens to trigger new shortages of helium.

PHOTO: BLOOMBERG

Published   Jul 10, 2026, 07:06 PM

Updated   Jul 10, 2026, 07:26 PM

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Summarise

  • China has imposed a temporary export ban on helium to prevent domestic shortages amid renewed US-Iran tensions and potential supply disruptions.
  • Helium is crucial for semiconductor manufacturing, especially for cooling and chip production in China's growing AI industry.
  • The ban may tighten global helium supply since China imports most of its helium and re-exports some, impacting international markets.

AI generated

BEIJING - China announced on July 10 a temporary export ban on helium, effective immediately, as resumption of military conflict in the Middle East threatens to trigger new shortages of the gas critical for chip manufacturing.

Earlier in 2026, the US-Israeli war on Iran led to helium shortages, disrupting companies globally, including in China, where the artificial intelligence industry increasingly relies on domestic chips for training and running AI models. Helium is essential for heat management in semiconductor production.

The helium ban is the latest example of Beijing seeking to prevent domestic shortages of critical materials by curbing exports. It has previously imposed similar measures on fuel, fertilisers and sulphuric acid.

China is also looking to boost domestic chip manufacturing capacity and reduce the industry’s dependence on cutting-edge Nvidia semiconductors that fall under US export controls.

China is heavily dependent on overseas helium despite efforts to expand domestic production.

Still, the export ban could squeeze global supply further because Chinese companies have increasingly acted as intermediaries, importing Russian helium and re-exporting some volumes to overseas markets, including Europe.

Analysts estimate China imports around 85 per cent or more of its helium requirements. Qatar accounts for a major share of global helium output and has supplied more than half of China's imports in recent years.

Helium is extracted from natural gas fields with unusually high helium concentrations and cannot be quickly manufactured from other industrial processes.

In chipmaking, it is used for wafer cooling, plasma etching, chemical vapour deposition, atomic layer deposition, lithography support and leak detection. REUTERS

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MDDI (P) 046/10/2025 . Published by SPH Media Limited, Co. Regn. No. 202120748H . Copyright © 2026 SPH Media Limited. All rights reserved.

打开原文

中国临时禁止氦气出口

重要性4/5 重要政策事实

中国主管部门发布立即生效的出口管理公告,可能影响半导体工业气体供应预期;但缺少贸易规模、执行细则和企业敞口数据,暂时无法量化影响。

中文摘要

核心结论

商务部、海关总署宣布对海关商品编号为 2804290010 的氦气实施临时禁止出口管理,公告自发布之日起执行。该措施可能影响境外半导体与 AI(人工智能)基础设施产业链的氦气供应预期,但原文没有披露出口规模、适用地区、豁免安排或持续期限。

重要性评级

评级:4/5(重要政策事实)

公告来自中国主管部门,措施立即生效,并与半导体制造所需工业气体供应有关。对具体公司成本和产能的影响仍缺少贸易量、库存及替代来源数据支持。

关键事实

  • 发布主体为中华人民共和国商务部、海关总署,文号为商务部、海关总署公告 2026 年第 29 号。
  • 公告于美东时间 07/10 05:00(UTC+8 07/10 17:00)发布,状态为现行有效。
  • 管理对象为氦气,海关商品编号为 2804290010。
  • 政策依据为《中华人民共和国对外贸易法》。
  • 管理方式为临时禁止出口,自公告公布之日起执行。
  • 后续调整将另行公告,原文没有给出结束日期或复审安排。

作者观点与证据

文件属于监管公告,只陈述管理决定及法律依据,没有提供政策原因、市场评估或产业影响判断。有关海外供给收紧、价格上涨和晶圆制造成本变化的判断,需要结合中国氦气出口量、目的地、企业库存及替代供应能力验证。

与相关标的的关系

氦气用于半导体制造中的冷却、检漏和受控工艺环境,因此与 NVDA(英伟达)、TSM(台积电)、SOXX(费城半导体指数交易所交易基金)及更广泛的半导体和人工智能基础设施链条存在供应路径关联。公告没有披露相关企业的采购来源,无法据此确认单一公司的实际敞口。

时效性与限制

该公告在摘要检索时仍属新近生效政策。原文篇幅很短,缺少出口统计、执行细则、例外条款和产业影响测算。

后续跟踪

  • 商务部、海关总署发布的执行细则、豁免或调整公告。
  • 中国氦气历史出口量、主要目的地及全球供应占比。
  • 半导体厂商的氦气库存、长期采购合同与替代来源。
  • 国际氦气现货及长期合同价格变化。
原文
商务部 海关总署公告2026年第29号 公布对氦气实施临时禁止出口管理

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来源:外贸司

类型:原创

时效状态:现行有效

2026-07-10 17:00

商务部 海关总署公告2026年第29号 公布对氦气实施临时禁止出口管理

【发布单位】外贸司

【发布文号】商务部 海关总署公告2026年第29号

【发文日期】2026年07月10日

依据《中华人民共和国对外贸易法》有关规定,商务部、海关总署决定对氦气(海关商品编号:2804290010)实施临时禁止出口管理。

本公告自公布之日起执行,后续相关调整将另行公告。

商务部  海关总署

2026年7月10日

打开原文

美国七月劳工数据日程

重要性5/5 关键事件日历

官方日历给出了即将发布的美国通胀、工资和就业数据时间,其中 CPI、PPI 与 ECI 对跨资产定价具有直接事件意义;材料不包含数据结果或方向判断。

中文摘要

核心结论

美国劳工统计局公布了 2026 年 7 月主要劳工与通胀数据的预定发布时间。对当前跨资产观察最直接的节点是 07/14 的 6 月 CPI(消费者价格指数)、07/15 的 6 月 PPI(生产者价格指数)以及 07/31 的二季度 ECI(就业成本指数)。

重要性评级

评级:5/5(关键事件日历)

日程来自美国劳工统计局,明确列出多项可影响美国利率、美元、美股、黄金和加密资产定价的数据节点。页面仅提供发布时间,不包含数据结果或市场影响证据。

关键事实

  • 6 月就业状况报告安排在美东时间 07/02 08:30(UTC+8 07/02 20:30)发布,该节点在当前检索时已经过去。
  • 6 月 CPI 与实际收入数据均安排在美东时间 07/14 08:30(UTC+8 07/14 20:30)发布。
  • 6 月 PPI 安排在美东时间 07/15 08:30(UTC+8 07/15 20:30)发布。
  • 6 月美国进出口价格指数安排在美东时间 07/17 08:30(UTC+8 07/17 20:30)发布。
  • 6 月州级就业与失业数据、2026 年第二季度通常周薪数据均安排在美东时间 07/21 10:00(UTC+8 07/21 22:00)发布。
  • 2025 年州级职位空缺与劳动力流动年度数据安排在美东时间 07/22 10:00(UTC+8 07/22 22:00)发布。
  • 6 月都市区就业数据与 2025 年第四季度企业就业动态数据均安排在美东时间 07/29 10:00(UTC+8 07/29 22:00)发布。
  • 2026 年第二季度 ECI 安排在美东时间 07/31 08:30(UTC+8 07/31 20:30)发布。

作者观点与证据

页面是官方发布日历,没有作者立场、预测值或数据解读。其证据价值限于确认预定事件及时间,不能用于判断通胀方向、就业强弱或市场反应幅度。

与相关标的的关系

CPI、PPI、就业和薪资数据会进入美联储政策预期与名义、实际利率定价,因而直接关联美国国债收益率、DXY(美元指数)和美国股票;利率及美元变化也会影响 XAUUSD(现货黄金兑美元)与 BTC(比特币)的估值环境。日历本身不提供各标的对数据意外程度的敏感度。

时效性与限制

页面标注最后修改日期为 02/18(未给出具体时刻),早于美东时间 07/12 21:59(UTC+8 07/13 09:59)的检索时间。美国劳工统计局说明日历会按需更新,通常至少在预定发布前一周补充项目,因此临近发布仍需核对官方日程。

后续跟踪

  • 07/14 CPI 的同比、环比、核心分项及市场预期差。
  • 07/15 PPI 中商品、服务与最终需求分项。
  • 07/17 进出口价格对输入性通胀的指示。
  • 07/31 ECI 中工资与福利成本变化。
原文
July 2026

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打开原文

美联储主席将赴众院作证

重要性5/5 高

官方一手日程显示关键货币政策听证会即将举行,跨资产相关度和时效性均高;现有证据仅覆盖议程,需等待正式证词。

中文摘要

核心结论

美国众议院金融服务委员会定于美东时间 07/14 10:00(UTC+8 07/14 22:00)举行美联储半年度货币政策报告听证会,美联储理事会主席凯文·沃什将作证。该页面只确认议程与证人,尚未提供政策表态或报告内容。

重要性评级

评级:5/5(高)

听证会距离检索时间不足两天,议题直接覆盖美国利率、美元指数、美股、黄金和加密资产共同面对的货币政策变量。委员会官网属于一手日程来源,但现有材料的信息量限于活动安排。

关键事实

  • 听证会主题为美联储半年度货币政策报告。
  • 举行时间为美东时间 07/14 10:00(UTC+8 07/14 22:00)。
  • 地点为美国众议院雷伯恩办公楼 2128 室。
  • 主办方为美国众议院金融服务委员会全体委员会。
  • 唯一列出的证人是美联储理事会主席凯文·沃什。
  • 页面提供直播和委员会备忘录入口,但归档正文没有收录备忘录内容。
  • 页面检索时间为美东时间 07/12 21:59(UTC+8 07/13 09:59)。

作者观点与证据

页面是委员会的官方活动公告,没有表达政策倾向,也没有提供通胀、就业、经济增长或利率路径证据。现阶段能够确认的只有听证会时间、地点、议题和证人身份。

与相关标的的关系

听证内容可能影响市场对美国政策利率和流动性的预期,关联美国国债收益率、DXY(美元指数)和美国股票。利率与美元预期还会传导至 BTC(比特币)及 XAUUSD(黄金兑美元),但公告没有给出任何政策方向,无法据此判断影响方向或幅度。

时效性与限制

页面未标注发布日期。归档内容形成于听证会举行前,缺少证词文本、问答记录、委员会备忘录正文和直播内容。

后续跟踪

  • 凯文·沃什提交的书面证词与半年度政策报告全文。
  • 对通胀、就业和经济增长风险的最新描述。
  • 对政策利率、资产负债表和金融条件的表述变化。
  • 议员问答中涉及监管、银行体系和数字资产的内容。
原文
Hearings | U.S. House Committee on Financial Services

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Hearing Entitled: The Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report”

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Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | 10:00 |

2128 Rayburn House Office Building

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Full Committee

Click here to view the livestream of this hearing.

Click here to view the Committee Memorandum.

Witnesses

  • The Honorable Kevin M. Warsh, Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
打开原文

美联储主席将赴参院作证

重要性5/5 高

参议院官方听证将在两天内举行,可能产生新的货币政策表述和问答信息,对主要跨资产变量具有直接影响;当前材料仅为日程公告。

中文摘要

核心结论

美国参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会定于美东时间 07/15 10:00(UTC+8 07/15 22:00)召开美联储半年度货币政策报告听证会,美联储理事会主席凯文·沃什将作为证人出席。页面只公布活动安排,尚无证词、政策报告正文或现场问答。

重要性评级

评级:5/5(高)

参议院听证紧随众议院场次,可能提供新增政策措辞和议员问答,对美国利率、美元及跨资产定价具有直接时效价值。官网属于一手来源,当前事实密度仍局限于会议安排。

关键事实

  • 听证会名称为美联储半年度货币政策报告。
  • 举行时间为美东时间 07/15 10:00(UTC+8 07/15 22:00)。
  • 地点为参议院德克森办公楼 538 室。
  • 主办方为美国参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会全体委员会。
  • 会议采用公开、混合形式举行。
  • 唯一列出的证人是美联储理事会主席凯文·沃什。
  • 委员会表示直播视频将在听证会开始后提供。
  • 页面检索时间为美东时间 07/12 21:59(UTC+8 07/13 09:59)。

作者观点与证据

页面属于官方听证公告,没有作者评论或政策立场。其证据可确认日期、时刻、地点、会议形式和证人;无法支持关于降息、加息、通胀路径或经济前景的判断。

与相关标的的关系

听证会可能更新市场对美国货币政策、利率曲线和美元流动性的理解,直接关联美国国债收益率、DXY(美元指数)及美国股票。政策预期变化也可能传导至 BTC(比特币)和 XAUUSD(黄金兑美元),现有公告没有提供可判断方向的政策信息。

时效性与限制

页面未标注发布日期。归档发生在听证会之前,直播尚未开始,证词文本、半年度报告正文和问答记录均未包含在材料中。

后续跟踪

  • 凯文·沃什书面证词相对众议院场次是否出现措辞调整。
  • 参议员针对通胀、就业、银行监管和金融稳定的提问。
  • 对利率路径和美联储资产负债表安排的明确表述。
  • 听证会后发布的视频、文字记录及补充文件。
原文
The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress | United States Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs

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The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress

Date: Wednesday, July 15, 2026

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Time: 10:00 AM

Location: Dirksen Senate Office Building 538

Check back for live video of this hearing.

Topic

THE COMMITTEE ON BANKING, HOUSING, AND URBAN AFFAIRS will meet in OPEN SESSION, HYBRID FORMAT to conduct a hearing entitled, " The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress ." The witness will be: The Honorable Kevin Warsh , Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

All hearings are webcast live and will not be available until the hearing starts. Individuals with disabilities who require an auxiliary aid or service, including closed captioning service for webcast hearings, should contact the committee clerk at 202-224-7391 at least three business days in advance of the hearing date.

Witnesses

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The Honorable

Kevin

Warsh

Chairman

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

打开原文

美联储七月政策与监管动态索引

重要性3/5 中

美联储官方来源及时列出近期货币政策事项,对美元指数和美债利率研究有直接索引价值;缺少文件正文,证据深度和可解释性受限。

中文摘要

核心结论

美联储新闻与活动索引显示,07/06至07/09集中发布了货币政策、监管和执法信息,其中06/16—06/17联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要于07/08发布,货币政策工作组的负责人及目标于07/09公布。页面只提供事项标题和日期,可用于定位一手文件,无法单独支持政策方向或市场影响判断。

重要性评级

评级:3/5(中)

来源为美联储官方页面,且覆盖截至07/10的近期发布,对DXY(美元指数)和美债利率研究具有一手资料索引价值;但抓取内容没有会议纪要、讲话或公告正文,事实密度有限。

关键事实

  • 美联储于07/08发布06/16—06/17联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要。
  • 07/09,美联储公布推进货币政策实施的工作组负责人及工作目标。
  • 07/06,理事Christopher J. Waller(克里斯托弗·沃勒)发表货币政策讲话。
  • 07/07,负责监管事务的副主席Michelle W. Bowman(米歇尔·鲍曼)就人工智能稳健实践致开幕辞。
  • 07/07,美联储就修订银行反洗钱项目要求的提案征求意见。
  • 页面还列出07/09和07/02的执法行动,以及06/06理事Michael S. Barr(迈克尔·巴尔)的监管讲话。
  • 页面标示最后更新日期为07/10;系统于美东时间 07/12 21:59(UTC+8 07/13 09:59)完成检索。

作者观点与证据

该页面是官方事项目录,没有作者评论或方向性论证。可确认的证据限于发布主体、标题和日期;页面未收录利率路径、通胀预测、投票分歧、政策工作组具体职责或讲话全文,因此不能从索引标题推导政策立场。

与相关标的的关系

06/16—06/17会议纪要、沃勒的货币政策讲话及政策实施工作组安排,与DXY(美元指数)和美债利率的政策预期直接相关。反洗钱规则、人工智能稳健实践和执法事项对银行监管研究有背景价值,但输入未指定银行个股,无法建立直接标的映射。

时效性与限制

页面未提供文章发布日期或各事项的具体时刻;相关日期均未给出具体时刻。检索发生在页面最后更新两天后,但原文只是聚合索引,缺少各链接正文及07/10以后可能新增的信息。

后续跟踪

  • 06/16—06/17会议纪要中的通胀、就业、利率路径与委员分歧。
  • 沃勒07/06讲话对政策时点和经济数据的具体表述。
  • 货币政策工作组的职责、实施安排及后续成果。
  • 银行反洗钱提案的修订文本、征求意见期限和适用范围。
原文
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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 16-17, 2026

July 8, 2026

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Federal Reserve announces the leadership and objectives of its task forces to advance the conduct of monetary policy

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Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman

2/26/2026

Testimony by Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman on supervision and regulation

Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman

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6/24/2025

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韩国央行称AI芯片超级周期尚未见顶

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Jin10转述韩国央行周一报告称,全球半导体市场仍供不应求,AI基础设施投资推动需求大增,而供应扩张相对缓慢;韩国央行称半导体周期尚未出现放缓迹象。

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KOSPI跌6%,SK海力士跌10.7%,三星电子跌6.6%

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Jin10快讯显示,UTC+8 10:04韩国KOSPI指数下跌6%,SK海力士下跌10.7%,三星电子下跌6.6%;此前09:34韩国交易所已对KOSPI启动侧车机制并暂停程序化交易。

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SK海力士美国首秀大涨后韩股跌10%

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Jin10报道,SK海力士上周五美股首日上涨约13%后,周一首尔股价下跌10%;受访基金经理将盘中压力与获利了结及套利平仓联系起来,报道同时提到该笔美国发行约265亿美元并获得超过7倍认购。

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WTI和布伦特涨约4%,黄金和白银下跌

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Jin10报价快照显示:WTI 74.294美元/桶、涨4.020%;布伦特79.06美元/桶、涨4.11%;现货黄金4084.63美元/盎司、跌0.84%;现货白银59.032美元/盎司、跌1.373%。

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韩国交易所对KOSPI启动侧车机制

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KOSPI跌4%,SK海力士跌8.3%,三星电子跌4.2%

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中国央行当日逆回购净投放2170亿元

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Axios称过去24小时约20艘商船与美军协调通行

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CME美联储观察显示7月维持利率不变概率为62.1%

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美国中央司令部确认对伊朗发起更多打击

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美国中央司令部称,美东时间7月12日17:00开始对伊朗发起更多打击,行动目标表述为削弱其攻击霍尔木兹海峡商船的能力。

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华尔街日报调查上调美国增长和通胀预测

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Jin10转述《华尔街日报》经济学家调查:2026年美国实际GDP增速预测由2.0%上调至2.1%,未来12个月衰退概率均值由33%降至25%,年末CPI预测由3.2%上调至3.4%,2026年核心PCE预测由2.9%上调至3.2%。

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日本拟推动GPIF提高另类资产比例

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Jin10转述日经新闻称,日本政府小组拟推动规模约1.8万亿美元的GPIF把另类资产占比从3月底的1.7%提高至接近5%的允许上限,并推动国家养老金增加国内资产配置。

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三星据称拟把龙仁首座芯片工厂投产提前至2029年

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Jin10转述韩联社称,三星电子正着手把龙仁芯片集群首座工厂投产时间提前至2029年,比原计划早一至两年;快讯还转述三星上月披露的平泽、龙仁和光州投资计划。

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乌方官员称俄方暂停顿河—亚速运河及刻赤海峡航运

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Jin10转述乌克兰内政部长顾问称,在乌方对俄船只发动系列打击后,俄方暂停顿河—亚速运河及刻赤海峡航运。