美伊据称同意停火并本周会面
重要性未评级
中文摘要
中文摘要生成失败：Original article body is missing or not ready.
原文
U.S. and Iran agree to halt strikes and meet this week, U.S. official says
U.S. and Iran agree to halt strikes and meet this week, U.S. official says
外观
周末环球资产日报 - 2026-06-29（美股盘前）
- 报告类型：周末环球资产日报
- 报告时间：2026-06-29 10:50:15 Asia/Shanghai
- 覆盖窗口：美国上周五收盘后至本次北京时间采集时点
- 数据范围：Binance public futures、Crypto ETF flow、公开新闻/事件、Jin10 facts-only radar、article archive。
- 排除范围：IBKR 股票持仓、公开报价/K线、期权链/大单、国债/T-Bill。
组合总览
今日要点
- 周一盘前主线由三条事件共同定价：霍尔木兹海峡仍有通航限制、美伊据称将在 6月30日多哈会谈、美国本周非农和央行论坛进入利率再定价窗口。金十 06/29 10:32 报道油轮进入数量仍有限，且只有一批油轮在美国护航下经由阿曼航线进入；同一事件链还包含 Axios 关于美伊本周会面的报道 和 金十 06/29 04:30 快讯。
- Crypto 现货与合约价格没有脱离区间压力：Binance public futures 在北京时间 06/29 10:50 显示 BTCUSDT 59,716.2，24h -0.64%，ETHUSDT 1,577.16，24h +0.40%，SOLUSDT 72.12，24h +2.05%。Funding 没有全面拥挤，BTC +0.005853%、ETH -0.00311%、SOL +0.006669%；真正需要盘前复核的是 BTC 是否重新站稳 60,000，以及 ETH 是否继续弱于 SOL。
- ETF-flow 给 BTC 的短线需求背景偏弱：Farside 最新可见 06/26 行显示 BTC spot ETF total -444.5 US$m，ETH total -12.8 US$m，SOL total +2.0 US$m。06/29 行尚未更新，SOL 的 VSOL/FSOL 单元格是 dash，按合同记为“暂未更新 / 无可用数据”，数值不计 0。
- 半导体新闻适合做开盘前反弹质量检查：Business Times 06/29 报道 三星与 SK 未来 10 年最高 2,000 万亿韩元投资计划，金十同日 07:47 也转述同一韩国媒体线索；但金十 06/27 04:10 已记录费城半导体指数周跌 7.9%，06/29 10:40 又记录科创50冲高回落。开盘前看设备、存储和 AI 基建链是否承接，投资额 headlines 只提供背景。
投研观点
周末突发事件
霍尔木兹仍是周末后最强事件线。金十 06/29 10:32 的 霍尔木兹海峡24小时状况监控 显示，进入油轮数量有限，且进入路线与美国护航、阿曼航线有关；金十 06/28 16:49 的 伊朗外长表态 把“未来30天由伊朗监督管理”的时间框架摆出来。这个组合对油价形成双触发结构：会谈顺利和通航数量恢复会压低风险溢价；会谈延迟、护航冲突或新袭击会重新抬高油、黄金和美元避险需求。
美伊据称同意停止互袭并本周会面，是对上述风险的缓和变量。Axios 06/28 报道 和 金十 06/29 04:30 快讯 都指向周二多哈会谈。这里的限制很明确：本次采集没有拿到美国或伊朗官方联合文本，停火确认仍以官方文本为准。
本周宏观日历会压缩风险资产的容错空间。金十 06/29 07:23 的 本周重要事件预告 列出美国非农、四大央行同场、欧洲央行辛特拉论坛、美国 ADP/ISM/EIA 等事件；Jin10 calendar 显示美国 6月非农公布时间为北京时间 07/02 20:30，非农共识 11 万，失业率共识 4.3%。在这个窗口里，周一开盘如果先反弹，需要同时经受利率预期和能源风险两道检验。
Crypto 市场风险
BTC 盘前结构偏防守，ETH 有修复但强度不够，SOL 是短线相对强项。Binance public futures 在北京时间 06/29 10:50 显示，BTCUSDT 24h -0.64%，较 06/28 收盘价小幅回到 +0.28%，但仍低于 06/26 收盘约 0.59%；ETHUSDT 24h +0.40%，较 06/26 收盘基本持平；SOLUSDT 24h +2.05%，较 06/26 收盘 +0.35%。如果 BTC 不能收回 60,000，SOL 的相对强势更适合当作风险偏好的温度计，而不是直接替代 BTC 的趋势信号。
Funding 没有显示三大币同时过热。BTC funding +0.005853%、SOL +0.006669% 属于轻度多头成本，ETH -0.00311% 显示 ETH 永续的多头拥挤度更低。这个结构支持“先看区间再看突破”：BTC 上沿 60,000/60,500，失效看 58,850；ETH 上沿 1,600，失效看 1,550；SOL 上沿 72.5，失效看 70.3。若 BTC 向下破 58,850，同时 ETF-flow 仍未更新或延续流出，合约风险要优先复核。
ETF-flow 是 BTC 的短线负担。Farside 最新可见 06/26 行显示 BTC total -444.5 US$m，ETH total -12.8 US$m，SOL total +2.0 US$m，HYPE total +1.8 US$m。BTC 的资金流和价格同处弱侧，ETH 流出较小但价格仍没有扩张，SOL 小额流入与相对强势一致。06/29 盘前不能把 ETF-flow 当作实时数据，最新行停在 06/26，这是本节的关键限制。
美股盘前新闻雷达
半导体开盘前要同时看“扩产利多”和“交易拥挤回撤”。Business Times 06/29 报道，三星与 SK 计划未来 10 年最高 2,000 万亿韩元投资，包含光州地区多座半导体晶圆厂、三星封装厂和 SK 海力士 NAND 扩产。文章摘要评级 4/5，因为它直接对应 005930.KS、000660.KS、设备和材料链，但仍是媒体预告，正式公告前不能把金额和厂址当最终版。
同一条主线有两个反向事实：金十 06/27 04:10 记录费城半导体指数本周下跌 7.9%，创 4月初以来最大单周跌幅；金十 06/29 10:40 记录科创50早盘由涨超 4% 回落至翻绿。这意味着美股盘前如果出现半导体反弹，质量要看广度和成交，NVDA/TSM/MU 的开盘方向只是一部分证据。若存储、设备、封装和亚洲科技同时承接，才算新闻被市场吸收；若只有 headline ticker 拉升而 SOX 宽度继续差，则是反弹失败信号。
AI 基建链还有一个远期线索：金十 06/29 10:31 转述苹果考虑 2028 年旗舰手机 SoC 采用 1.4nm 工艺。它对当日交易触发较弱，但和三星/SK扩产一起，把先进制程、封装、设备、材料的中期叙事重新推到前台。周一盘前更适合检查这些链条是否从“故事”变成“订单/资本开支确认”。
宏观、政策与地缘
利率路径在本周有重新定价风险。金十 06/29 05:53 的 CME 美联储观察快讯 显示，7月维持利率不变概率 69.5%，累计加息 25bp 概率 30.5%；9月维持不变概率 40.4%，累计加息 25bp 概率 46.9%，累计加息 50bp 概率 12.8%。这组概率把美元、黄金和成长股估值放在同一张表里：只要就业或通胀相关数据继续偏强，周一的风险资产反弹都要面对折现率上行压力。
欧洲央行辛特拉论坛官方页 显示，论坛覆盖 06/29-07/01，议程包括欧洲增长、银行监管、AI 与金融稳定、代币化和全球贸易。它提供政策沟通日程，对 EURUSD、欧债收益率和美元交叉影响足够直接。若拉加德或其他央行官员在增长与通胀之间给出更强表述，美元指数和黄金会迅速受到二次影响。
就业数据是 72 小时内的最大宏观触发。Jin10 calendar 列出美国 6月非农和失业率在北京时间 07/02 20:30 发布，非农共识 11 万，失业率共识 4.3%；BLS 官方就业报告发布时间表作为发布时间来源。若非农高于共识且工资没有降温，利率与美元会压制黄金和长久期成长股；若就业明显走弱，风险资产可能先交易利率缓和，再回头评估盈利和能源冲击。
大宗商品与外汇
原油当前围绕“通航恢复速度 vs. 新袭击概率”日内摆动。金十 06/29 10:32 显示进入油轮数量有限；MarketWatch 06/27 的油价文章记录停火后油价收低但未完全转为周跌。这两条事实放在一起，说明市场已经部分计入缓和，但还没有完全移除霍尔木兹风险溢价。周一盘前若油价上冲，需要看是否有新船舶事件；若油价下行，需要看通航数量和会谈信号是否同步改善。
黄金的短线方向被两股力量拉扯：霍尔木兹与中东安全事件支撑避险，CME 概率和非农窗口抬高实际利率压力。金十 06/29 的利率概率行说明加息概率仍在；同日霍尔木兹快讯说明避险背景还没消失。黄金若在美元走强时仍能守住日内低点，说明避险需求在接管；若美元和实际利率上行同时压住黄金，说明地缘溢价暂时被宏观利率覆盖。
FX 方面，EURUSD 的盘前变量来自辛特拉论坛和美国数据预期。ECB 官方议程显示 06/29-07/01 连续三天密集发言，金十周历又把美英加欧四大央行同场列入本周重点。美元如果受加息概率支撑继续走强，EURUSD 需要央行沟通或欧元区数据来抵消；缺少新的欧洲政策表态时，方向锚仍在美元和美国数据。
周一开盘关注清单
- 能源/地缘：等待型 setup。 触发条件是多哈会谈得到官方确认、通航油轮数量恢复，或出现新的油轮/护航冲突。前者会压低油和黄金风险溢价，后者会抬高油、黄金、美元；若只有媒体复述而没有通航数据变化，开盘前不追方向。
- ETF-flow：数据刷新 setup。 Farside 06/29 行更新前，BTC -444.5 US$m 只能作为 06/26 最新可见事实。若新行继续大额流出，BTC 反弹的验证门槛上移；若流入恢复，才有资格把 60,000 上方走势看作需求改善。
- 半导体：反弹质量 setup。 三星/SK 2,000 万亿韩元新闻给供应链主题，SOX 周跌 7.9% 和科创50冲高回落给风险约束。美股开盘看设备、存储、封装、材料链是否一起走强；若只有个别大盘股拉升，第二小时容易被获利盘测试。
- 宏观：利率再定价 setup。 周一先看 Dallas Fed、辛特拉发言和美元/黄金反应；07/02 非农前，所有风险资产突破都需要成交与宽度配合。若美元和实际利率一起上行，成长股与黄金的同涨组合要降低置信度。
本地文章库
本地文章库有 2 篇 ready 摘要可直接引用：4/5 的 三星SK十年扩产蓝图，用于半导体与 AI 基建链；3/5 的 欧央行辛特拉论坛议程，用于央行沟通和宏观日历。Axios 与 MarketWatch 原文抓取分别返回 HTTP 403 与 HTTP 401，报告只引用它们在 web-enrichment 中保存的公开事实和链接，不生成本地中文文章摘要。
Jin10 快讯不进入文章库，作为页内“金十快讯源”引用。最关键的三条是 霍尔木兹海峡 24 小时状况监控、美伊据称本周多哈会面、本周重要事件与数据预告。这些快讯足够支持事件清单和触发条件；官方公告仍是事件确认来源。
Crypto 事实
Binance 合约市场结构
| 合约 | 价格 | 24h涨跌 | Funding | OI | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT | 59,716.20 | -0.64% | 0.00585% / 8h | 103,350.82 | 2026-06-29 02:50:13.079Z |
ETHUSDT | 1,577.16 | +0.40% | -0.00311% / 8h | 2,316,085.66 | 2026-06-29 02:50:13.123Z |
SOLUSDT | 72.12 | +2.05% | 0.00667% / 8h | 10,273,291.33 | 2026-06-29 02:50:14.556Z |
本地文章库
| 重要性 | 中文标题 | 原文标题 | 发布日期 | 来源 | 状态 | 评级理由 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 未评级 | 美伊据称同意停火并本周会面 | U.S. and Iran agree to halt strikes and meet this week, U.S. official says | 2026-06-28 | Axios | fetch_failed | - |
| 未评级 | 油价在美伊停火后收低 | Oil prices end lower after Iran-U.S. ceasefire; but fall short of a weekly loss | 2026-06-27 | MarketWatch | fetch_failed | - |
| 4/5 中高 | 三星SK十年扩产蓝图 | Samsung, SK to invest 2,000 trillion won in South Korea’s new ‘three mega projects’ over 10 years | 2026-06-28 | The Business Times | ready | 消息直接关联三星电子、SK海力士和韩国半导体扩产，且活动就在当日，但正文仍以媒体预告为主，正式公告前需要保留折扣。 |
| 3/5 中 | 欧央行辛特拉论坛议程 | ECB Forum on Central Banking 2026 | 2026-06-29 | European Central Bank | ready | 发布时间就在论坛首日，能提前提示欧洲增长、监管、AI 与贸易的讨论线索；但这页只给日程，没有会议结论或可直接交易化的证据。 |
油价在美伊停火后收低
重要性未评级
中文摘要
中文摘要生成失败：Original article body is missing or not ready.
原文
Oil prices end lower after Iran-U.S. ceasefire; but fall short of a weekly loss
Oil prices end lower after Iran-U.S. ceasefire; but fall short of a weekly loss
三星SK十年扩产蓝图
重要性4/5 中高
消息直接关联三星电子、SK海力士和韩国半导体扩产，且活动就在当日，但正文仍以媒体预告为主，正式公告前需要保留折扣。
中文摘要
核心结论
三星电子（Samsung Electronics）和SK海力士（SK Hynix）据报将借李在明政府的“三大超级项目”公布未来10年最高达2,000万亿韩元的投资计划，重点放在新建晶圆厂、封装产线和NAND（闪存）扩产，直接指向AI芯片与数据中心链条。
重要性评级
评级：4/5（中高）
这条消息对005930.KS、000660.KS以及半导体设备链最直接，且发布时间就在总统府活动当日。报道仍主要来自单一媒体转述，细节没有公司正式公告支撑，适合高优先级跟踪，但不宜当成最终定案。
关键事实
- 韩国《韩国经济日报》称，三星集团和SK集团未来10年合计投资最高可达2,000万亿韩元，约合1.7万亿新元。
- 两家公司计划在6月29日总统府活动中公布方案；李在明将于美东时间 06/29 01:00（UTC+8 06/29 13:00）出席并介绍“三大超级项目”。
- 三星电子和SK海力士预计各自在韩国西南部光州周边建设4到5座半导体晶圆厂。
- 三星还预计在忠清南道建设芯片封装工厂，SK海力士计划在忠清北道扩建NAND工厂。
- 韩国总统办公室称，产业、科学、气候和土地等部门官员将公布政策配套措施。
- 报道提到，花旗（Citigroup）认为政府主导的大额投资会支撑韩国半导体供应链，尤其是半导体生产设备公司。
作者观点与证据
文章本身没有做独立核实，核心信息来自韩国《韩国经济日报》的预期披露和另一篇先前报道的呼应。能够确认的硬事实主要是总统府确实安排了6月29日活动、李在明将发表开场讲话、相关部长会介绍政策；至于2,000万亿韩元和各地工厂数量，仍是媒体转述的计划值。
与相关标的的关系
- 005930.KS：直接受益于新增晶圆厂和封装产能，和资本开支最相关。
- 000660.KS：直接受益于NAND扩产和多座晶圆厂计划。
- MU、NVDA、TSM：更多体现为AI芯片需求和亚洲供应链扩张的主题联动，和公司单一收入项的直接映射较弱。
- AI infrastructure、Korea equities、semiconductors：属于主题级利好，尤其对韩国半导体设备和配套供应链更敏感。
时效性与限制
原文发布时间标注为美东时间 06/28 12:00（UTC+8 06/29 00:00）；文中最关键的政策发布活动安排在美东时间 06/29 01:00（UTC+8 06/29 13:00）。这篇文章适合当日日报引用，因为事件就在同日发生，但内容仍依赖媒体预告和政府活动安排，细节可能在正式发布时调整。
后续跟踪
- 三星电子和SK海力士是否在总统府活动中正式确认投资总额。
- 4到5座晶圆厂、封装厂和NAND扩产的落点是否与现有韩国产能规划一致。
- 政府配套政策是否涉及补贴、税收、用地或审批加速。
- 花旗和其他卖方是否把这轮投资进一步拆分到设备、材料和封装环节。
原文
Samsung, SK to invest 2,000 trillion won in South Korea’s new ‘three mega projects’ over 10 years
Samsung, SK to invest 2,000 trillion won in South Korea’s new ‘three mega projects’ over 10 years
The two companies will also outline investment plans following the policy announcements
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Published Mon, Jun 29, 2026 · 06:57 AM — Updated Mon, Jun 29, 2026 · 09:10 AM
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- President Lee Jae-myung will deliver opening remarks at a 2pm event at the Blue House, introducing the “Three Mega Projects for the Great Leap Forward” initiative. PHOTO: EPA
[SEOUL] South Korea’s Samsung Group and SK Group are poised to announce as much as 2,000 trillion won (S$1.7 trillion) of investments over the next decade as part of President Lee Jae-myung’s flagship industrial strategy, the Korea Economic Daily reported.
The two groups are expected to unveil the package when their leaders present the plans at the presidential office on Monday (Jun 29) , the newspaper said, without giving details of where it obtained the information.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are each expected to build four to five semiconductor fabs in the Gwangju area, in the country’s southwest, the newspaper said. Samsung is also expected to build chip packaging plants in South Chungcheong province while SK Hynix will expand NAND plants in North Chungcheong province, the newspaper added.
Lee will introduce the “Three Mega Projects for the Great Leap Forward” initiative at a 2 pm (1pm Singapore time) event, South Korea’s presidential office said on Sunday. Presidential Spokesperson Kang Yu-jung said officials from the industry, science, climate and land ministries will outline the government’s policy measures. Then Samsung Electronics executive chairman Lee Jae-yong and SK Group chairman Chey Tae-won will announce their companies’ investment plans at the event.
For Samsung and SK Group, the major investments would reflect mounting demand for AI chips, memory and data centre infrastructure, while aligning with President Lee’s push to preserve South Korea’s technological edge against rivals including the US, China and Taiwan.
The latest report follows an earlier Maeil Business Newspaper report that said Samsung was expected to announce more than 1,000 trillion won in spending.
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Presidential Policy Chief Kim Yong-beom said in a YouTube interview Friday that “very unusual” figures would be unveiled at the meeting. The plans are expected to focus on sectors including semiconductors, AI data centres and physical AI.
Citigroup said in a note that the massive investment led by the government should boost the sustained growth of the Korean semiconductor supply chain. “We are constructive on Korean SPE names, backed by the promising AI demand outlook and accelerated green-field capacity expansion plans,” the note added referring to semiconductor production equipment sector. BLOOMBERG
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South Korea Lee Jae-myung Samsung Electronics SK Hynix Artificial Intelligence semiconductors
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3.10.1
欧央行辛特拉论坛议程
重要性3/5 中
发布时间就在论坛首日，能提前提示欧洲增长、监管、AI 与贸易的讨论线索；但这页只给日程，没有会议结论或可直接交易化的证据。
中文摘要
核心结论
欧洲央行（ECB）辛特拉中央银行论坛公布了 06/29-07/01 的完整议程，主题集中在欧洲增长、银行监管、人工智能（AI）、移民、代币化和全球贸易。页面只给出会议安排与发言人，没有政策结论，也没有给出任何市场判断。
重要性评级
评级：3/5（中）
这是一则高时效的政策会议日程，能提前提示接下来几天欧洲增长、监管、AI 与贸易讨论的重点；但内容停留在议程层面，信号主要来自主题设置，不来自实际表态。
关键事实
- 论坛主题为“Shaping Europe’s future: innovation, growth and stability”，地点在葡萄牙辛特拉，时间覆盖 06/29-07/01。
- 06/29 晚间安排由欧洲央行执行董事会主办的晚宴与拉加德（Christine Lagarde）致辞，并提供直播。
- 06/30 的首个主题围绕“欧洲增长加速：创新与扩散”，配套论文讨论投资、创新与扩散的生产率框架。
- 06/30 的第二个主题讨论“监管周期、稳定风险与增长机会”，论文聚焦危机后银行监管的严格性与复杂性。
- 06/30 还有“人工智能（AI）与金融稳定”专题讨论，参与者来自国际货币基金组织（IMF）、英格兰银行和宾夕法尼亚大学等机构。
- 06/30 下午设有一场关于人工智能（AI）的对话，嘉宾包括人工智能公司 OpenAI 的首席经济学家 Aaron Chatterji 和欧洲央行的 Philip R. Lane。
- 07/01 上午讨论移民对欧洲生产率和增长的影响，论文覆盖人口、劳动生产率、投资和全要素生产率（TFP）。
- 07/01 的代币化（tokenisation）议题讨论货币、支付和金融交易数字化的挑战与机会，论文来自韩国银行的 Project Hangang。
- 07/01 还安排了欧洲在新的全球贸易格局中的角色、政策圆桌、青年经济学家奖颁奖和闭幕致辞。
作者观点与证据
- 这页是会议程序，不是评论文章，几乎没有作者立场。
- 证据主要来自议程、发言人和论文标题，可信度高，但只说明“会讨论什么”，不说明“讨论后得出什么”。
与相关标的的关系
- 对 EUR、EURUSD 和利率市场最直接的意义，是提前暴露欧洲增长、监管、AI 风险和全球贸易几条讨论主线。
- 对全球股市的影响主要来自政策沟通窗口和主题预期，不指向单一公司或单一资产。
时效性与限制
- 文章发布时间为 06/29，内容覆盖同日到 07/01 的会议安排，时效性很高。
- 页面明确写到日程可能调整，且论坛会直播并在会后上传录播，因此最终发言内容可能与当前议程有差异。
- 该页没有提供会议结果、问答全文或官方总结，适合做日程跟踪，不适合直接当作政策定调。
后续跟踪
- 06/29 晚宴致辞是否释放新的通胀、增长或政策节奏线索。
- 06/30 关于银行监管、AI 与金融稳定的讨论是否出现明确政策倾向。
- 07/01 关于全球贸易、移民和生产率的讨论是否强化欧洲增长路径判断。
- 论坛结束后是否发布官方视频、文字稿或问答摘要。
原文
ECB Forum on Central Banking 2026
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ECB Forum on Central Banking 2026
Shaping Europe’s future: innovation, growth and stability
29 June-1 July 2026
Sintra, Portugal
Watch live from 20:00 on 29 June 2026
PHOTOS
High-quality images are available via the ECB's press photos collection.
Photos from the ECB Forum
Find out more about ...
... the speakers
Learn more about our speakers, their backgrounds and their diverse expertise and professional experience.
Speakers at the 2026 ECB Forum
... the participants
The participants will ask questions and cast their vote for the Young Economist Prize.
List of participants in the 2026 ECB Forum
Programme
All times are local (CET -1)
Conference moderator
Claire Jones, US Economics Editor, Financial Times
Monday, 29 June 2026
18:30
Opening reception and dinner
Dinner hosted by the Executive Board of the European Central Bank
Introductory speech
Christine Lagarde, President, European Central Bank
A live stream of the dinner speech will begin at 20:00.
Tuesday, 30 June 2026
8:30
Welcome and introduction
8:40
Session 1
Accelerating growth in Europe: innovation versus diffusion
Chair: Boris Vujčić, Vice-President, European Central Bank
Paper: Rewiring Europe’s productivity framework: aligning investment, innovation, and diffusion
Author: Bart Van Ark, Professor, University of Manchester
Discussant: Monika Schnitzer, Professor, University of Munich
9:40
Session 2
Regulatory cycles, stability risks and growth opportunities
Chair: Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board, European Central Bank
Paper: The stringency and complexity of post crisis bank regulation
Author: Mariassunta Giannetti, Professor, Stockholm School of Economics
(together with Cameron Ellis, Associate Professor, University of Iowa, and Chotibhak Jotikasthira, Professor, Southern Methodist University)
Discussant: Enrico Perotti, Professor, University of Amsterdam
10:40
Coffee break and poster session for the Young Economist Prize
11:10
Young Economist Prize
Introduction of the finalists – speed presentations on the stage
11:40
Panel 1
Artificial intelligence and financial stability
Chair: Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank
- Tobias Adrian, Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department, International Monetary Fund
- Sarah Breeden, Deputy Governor for Financial Stability, Bank of England
- Itay Goldstein, Professor, University of Pennsylvania
- Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, Apollo Global Management
13:10
Lunch
14:30
A conversation about artificial intelligence
- Aaron Chatterji, Chief Economist, OpenAI, and Professor, Duke University
- Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank
15:15
End of day 1
Group photo (all participants)
19:30
Informal dinner hosted by the Executive Board of the European Central Bank
Wednesday, 1 July 2026
8:15
Poster session for the Young Economist Prize
(stands in the foyer)
8:40
Welcome and introduction
8:45
Session 3
Migration: implications for productivity and growth in Europe
Chair: Boris Vujčić, Vice-President, European Central Bank
Paper: The immigration impact on population, labor productivity, investments and TFP in OECD countries
Author: Giovanni Peri, Professor, University of California, Davis
(together with Gaetano Basso, Economist, Banca d'Italia, and Mitali R. Mathur, University of California, Davis)
Discussant: Hillel Rapoport, Professor, Paris School of Economics
9:45
Session 4
Tokenisation: challenges and opportunities when money, payments and financial transactions become digital
Chair: Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank
Paper: A unified ledger in practice: lessons from Project Hangang
Author: Hyun Song Shin, Governor, Bank of Korea
(together with Jaemin Ryu, Joonyi Sung, and Sung Guan Yun, all Bank of Korea)
Discussant: Catherine Casamatta, Toulouse School of Economics
10:45
Coffee break
11:15
Panel 2
Europe’s role in the new global trade landscape
Chair: Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank
- Laura Alfaro Maykall, Chief Economist and Economic Counselor, Inter-American Development Bank
- Marion Jansen, Director of the Trade and Agriculture Directorate, OECD
- Ralph Ossa, Professor, University of Zurich
- Denis Redonnet, Deputy Director-General for Trade and Economic Security, European Commission
12:45
Lunch
14:00
Policy panel
- Andrew Bailey, Governor, Bank of England
- Christine Lagarde, President, European Central Bank
- Tiff Macklem, Governor, Bank of Canada
- Kevin Warsh, Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Moderator: Sara Eisen, Anchor, CNBC
15:00
Award ceremony for the Young Economist Prize
Closing remarks
Christine Lagarde, President, European Central Bank
18:30
Reception and dinner hosted by the Banco de Portugal
The bus to the dinner venue departs at 18:00.
This programme may be subject to change without notice.
Audiovisual notice: The entire event will be broadcast live. Recordings will be uploaded to the ECB’s website shortly after the end of the Forum. Journalists will be present and will report on the event.
SEE ALSO
Find out more about related content
2026 ECB Forum on Central Banking
You can find more information on this year's Forum on the dedicated landing page. From there you have access to all related content including our answers to some frequently asked questions.
ECB Forum on Central Banking
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